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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s a second referendum then LEAVE’s “Tell them Again”

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s a second referendum then LEAVE’s “Tell them Again” message would likely win the dsy

With increasing regularity the moment the national Westminster polls are asking how respondents would vote if there was a new referendum on Brexit. In the main the responses a fairly similar with those wanting to stay in the EU having a lead between 7 and 10%.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • E pluribus unum

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    TSE did you just delete my first so you could be first?

    SHENANIGANS.
  • Did she lodge an appeal, or was it lodged by a mystery Russian?
  • For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because

    1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
    2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
    3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.
  • TSE did you just delete my first so you could be first?

    SHENANIGANS.

    There was no collusion between myself and Vanilla.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Yes agree.

    Leave's many many straplines would reach right to the heart of much of the British public.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Leave would win again because Remain would double down on Project Fear, which worked so well last time. We can see this week that Westminster is still addicted to negative campaigning.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because

    1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
    2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
    3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.

    1. Incorrect

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited January 2019
    On topic.

    Just rig the ballot by making Leave conditional on it being a success within five years or we rejoin in 2024 automatically replete with the Euro and Schengen.

    And/or change the electorate by allowing 16/17 year olds and EU citizens to vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TOPPING said:

    Yes agree.

    Leave's many many straplines would reach right to the heart of much of the British public.

    Straplines like

    "Easiest deal in history"

    "Nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market"
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    I also don't get the assumption that remain would win next time; it's the same level of blind arrogance that cost them last time.

    The Talleyrand quote "They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing" is entirely apt.

    I'd expect 45 / 55 in a revoke / not revoke referendum.
  • Line for Remain should be:
    "Do you want to spend the next five years talking about Brexit or the NHS?"
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TGOHF said:

    Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because

    1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
    2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
    3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.

    1. Incorrect

    He is right about (3) though. This week May's deal could not muster a hundred supporters once the payroll vote is stripped out.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because

    1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
    2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
    3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.

    The question will surely be "revoke or not revoke"; May's deal has been trashed by a huge margin, it's a norwegian blue, it's not being put in front of the public
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I also don't get the assumption that remain would win next time; it's the same level of blind arrogance that cost them last time.

    The Talleyrand quote "They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing" is entirely apt.

    I'd expect 45 / 55 in a revoke / not revoke referendum.

    Especially as the membership cost will have soared.

    Stay in - all the crap at twice the price - even less for the NHS...

    Only chance remain have is if Farage runs the campaign rather than Cummings.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    What is the status of her parliamentary involvement at present? I note she voted on the deal, but abstained/was not present for the VoNC. Is she still a fully participating member?

    Interesting that the opposition were 4 down on the 2017 GE results yesterday and government were at par. The DUP only just retain the balance of power on those numbers.
  • Lock her up, lock her up....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because

    1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
    2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
    3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.

    1. Incorrect

    He is right about (3) though. This week May's deal could not muster a hundred supporters once the payroll vote is stripped out.
    Difficult to predict the result without knowing the question - I doubt it will be Mays deal vs Remain though - if it was , a mass boycott would be the likely outcome.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Scott_P said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yes agree.

    Leave's many many straplines would reach right to the heart of much of the British public.

    Straplines like

    "Easiest deal in history"

    "Nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market"
    I was thinking more of "who governs Britain?"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TOPPING said:

    I was thinking more of "who governs Britain?"

    Under a giant poster of Gove, Bozo, Farage, and the Moggster.

    Genius!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    I've never been convinced that a second referendum was a good idea, unless or until there was some clear new Remain message to put before the public. We had a discussion yesterday on the content of Facebook pages and other sources of misleading information, especially in Leave supporting areas, and it's clear that 'we've voted once, get on with it' would resonate with enough people to get them to go and vote.
    I very much fear we'e going to have to 'suck it and see' although maybe we can get away with a Customs Union which will ameliorate the worst effects of Leaving. There'll have to be some arrangement for services too, or the present trickle of service based firms to the rest of the UK (including Ireland) will become a flood.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because

    1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
    2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
    3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.

    The question will surely be "revoke or not revoke"; May's deal has been trashed by a huge margin, it's a norwegian blue, it's not being put in front of the public
    Norwegian blue++ perhaps
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pro_Rata said:

    What is the status of her parliamentary involvement at present? I note she voted on the deal, but abstained/was not present for the VoNC. Is she still a fully participating member?

    Interesting that the opposition were 4 down on the 2017 GE results yesterday and government were at par. The DUP only just retain the balance of power on those numbers.
    She’s still an MP but has been kicked out of the Labour Party.

    If she’s sentenced to 12 months or more her seat will be vacated automatically, if the sentence is less than that and she doesn’t take the Chiltern Hundreds, then she’s likely to be the subject of a recall petition in her constituency.

    Not sure what happens if she’s sentenced to 12 months but appeals the conviction though, due process probably requires that the legal proceedings be allowed to play out. One for the Sepaker to decide, so it will be whatever decision makes Brexit more difficult.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Depends what the options are.

    If it's May's Deal versus Remain, then I'd make Remain strong favourite. Remainers, obviously, will like that. Whereas Leavers will be split between thinking May's Deal is better than nothing, and that it's atrocious and Remaining is better. It'd depress Leaver turnout in both senses of the word.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Scott_P said:

    TOPPING said:

    I was thinking more of "who governs Britain?"

    Under a giant poster of Gove, Bozo, Farage, and the Moggster.

    Genius!
    Standing up for the 17.4m. Don't let the elite tell you how to vote.

    There is something in the British psyche that doesn't take well to the establishment telling them they've got it wrong. Arch tweets from bien pensant remainers going down well on PB do not a referendum win.

    That said, any referendum wouldn't be stated as Leave vs Remain. It would (have to) be May's Deal vs Remain and May's Deal in those circumstances would IMO likely prevail.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    edited January 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    What is the status of her parliamentary involvement at present? I note she voted on the deal, but abstained/was not present for the VoNC. Is she still a fully participating member?

    Interesting that the opposition were 4 down on the 2017 GE results yesterday and government were at par. The DUP only just retain the balance of power on those numbers.
    She’s still an MP but has been kicked out of the Labour Party.

    If she’s sentenced to 12 months or more her seat will be vacated automatically, if the sentence is less than that and she doesn’t take the Chiltern Hundreds, then she’s likely to be the subject of a recall petition in her constituency.

    Not sure what happens if she’s sentenced to 12 months but appeals the conviction though, due process probably requires that the legal proceedings be allowed to play out. One for the Sepaker to decide, so it will be whatever decision makes Brexit more difficult.
    It was more a question of her participation level in the meantime, along the lines of 'if Corbyn calls another VoNC on Monday when plan B turns out to be plan A, with no deal, does she vote'?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Scott_P said:
    Just make it stop = don't bother your pretty little head with the details, we'll sort it all out.

    For every Remain attack line there would be an easy us vs them rebuttal.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    A second referendum campaign would be dominated by leavers pressurising their opponents to rule out a third referendum if they lost again.

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Sandpit said:

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
    There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.

    Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.

    Funny old world.
  • So many variables about a hypothetical " second referendum " and the incumbent's majority of 3.8% is so small I think predicting the result now is a fools errand. That said I'm sympathetic to the view there has been no fundamental polling shift. Or more accurately no permanent one. My reading of the data is the underlying Leave vote has been worn down by the unremittingly bad news from the negitiations. We don't know if that would stay the same during the campaign where 50/50 air time is mandated.

    What all the polling data and social research does show is that Leave has gained *no* ground. There has been absolutely no extra buy in to the project per se. Just releaving. That's why I say Brexit has nothing going for it other than it's inevitability. Take that away and anything is possible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Scott_P said:
    Doing as the 52% told them to do would make it stop.

    "Vote for May's Deal to Make It Stop......"

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    This is spot on from Mike.

    The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.

    Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I think Mike's right. We have to arrive at the same place by a different route. Asking the residents of Hartlepool to think again would be fruitless. We have to leave and it has to have serious consequences followed by finding someone other than themselves to blame.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Sandpit said:

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
    There are more people in London than Manchester.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    So many variables about a hypothetical " second referendum " and the incumbent's majority of 3.8% is so small I think predicting the result now is a fools errand. That said I'm sympathetic to the view there has been no fundamental polling shift. Or more accurately no permanent one. My reading of the data is the underlying Leave vote has been worn down by the unremittingly bad news from the negitiations. We don't know if that would stay the same during the campaign where 50/50 air time is mandated.

    What all the polling data and social research does show is that Leave has gained *no* ground. There has been absolutely no extra buy in to the project per se. Just releaving. That's why I say Brexit has nothing going for it other than it's inevitability. Take that away and anything is possible.

    I think that most Leavers just think that Remainers have failed to implement the referendum result (look at the comments on here from Leavers). If I were a Leaver ( "......." ) I would be irritated at the likely referendum question (deal vs remain) but it is the only option so I would have to suck it up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Doing as the 52% told them to do would make it stop.

    "Vote for May's Deal to Make It Stop......"

    And why did the Brexiteers not do that?

    As Matthew Parris says, they don't actually want it to stop. Neverending debate over Brexit is their Nirvana
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    Deslection for Benn and Cooper then - the Maomentum hounds will be released.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Depends what the options are.

    If it's May's Deal versus Remain, then I'd make Remain strong favourite. Remainers, obviously, will like that. Whereas Leavers will be split between thinking May's Deal is better than nothing, and that it's atrocious and Remaining is better. It'd depress Leaver turnout in both senses of the word.

    If it's Remain vs Deal, I would expect the likes of Farage and Boris to run a extra-campaign campaign for people to protest by spoiling their ballot papers. I could well see many millions of people doing so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    Tony Blair today joined condemnation of Jeremy Corbyn for refusing to hold Brexit talks with the PM. Mr Blair said it was wrong for the Opposition leader to snub a meeting with the premier at a 'moment of national crisis'.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6601991/Tony-Blair-joins-condemnation-Corbyn-REFUSING-hold-Brexit-talks.html

    The cult will now definitely be convinced Jezza is making the correct decision.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I almost agree.

    The reason I would make Remain narrow favourite is because a fresh referendum would not be Remain v Leave but Remain v A Specific Option. A Specific Option is not as popular as Leave.

    Otherwise I agree completely.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Depends what the options are.

    If it's May's Deal versus Remain, then I'd make Remain strong favourite. Remainers, obviously, will like that. Whereas Leavers will be split between thinking May's Deal is better than nothing, and that it's atrocious and Remaining is better. It'd depress Leaver turnout in both senses of the word.

    If it's Remain vs Deal, I would expect the likes of Farage and Boris to run a extra-campaign campaign for people to protest by spoiling their ballot papers. I could well see many millions of people doing so.
    I reckon boycotting the vote would be more effective. Telling people to spoil their ballot paper might reveal that there isn't quite as much support for the Farage et al position.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    From that, it also sounds like leave to appeal has to be granted and isn't automatic? Given the established facts of the case, how likely is such a grant? I don't really see what arguments she has for appeal other than that she doesn't like the verdict and wants another go.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Scott_P said:

    Doing as the 52% told them to do would make it stop.

    "Vote for May's Deal to Make It Stop......"

    And why did the Brexiteers not do that?

    As Matthew Parris says, they don't actually want it to stop. Neverending debate over Brexit is their Nirvana
    Dunno. Not one of them.

    Maybe they think the EU will actually cave and offer something better in the final 48 hours? Like they always do?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If it's Remain vs Deal, I would expect the likes of Farage and Boris to run a extra-campaign campaign for people to protest by spoiling their ballot papers. I could well see many millions of people doing so.

    And just as May has insisted on ignoring every single person who did not vote Leave last time, the government of the day would ignore all spoilt ballots in any future vote.

    Another genius plan.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    This is spot on from Mike.

    The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.

    Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.

    Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?
    Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.

    Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
  • ReduxRedux Posts: 7
    I suspect it depends a lot on what the question is. If its specific option vs Remain, Remain will benefit from those not liking that particular Leave option either voting against it or abstaining. If its another Leave vs Remain vote (which I really wouldn't see the point in) there is a bigger chance of this happening. My personal experience, fwiw, is the vast majority would do the same but the two people I've spoken to who would vote differently, say they would change from Leave to Remain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Herdson, that's eminently possible.

    Mr. Redux, welcome to PB.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I almost agree.

    The reason I would make Remain narrow favourite is because a fresh referendum would not be Remain v Leave but Remain v A Specific Option. A Specific Option is not as popular as Leave.
    y.

    You could then get Remain winning 95-5 on a 30% turnout as a mass campaign is launched to stick 2 fingers up to the referendum.

    No doubt that would be sufficient ringing endorsment for Remainers to sign us back up for billions of quid annually for the pleasure of a huge trade deficit.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    TOPPING said:

    Arch tweets from bien pensant remainers going down well on PB do not a referendum win.

    Ain't that the truth! Remain won Twitter, but lost the referendum.
  • Scott_P said:

    Doing as the 52% told them to do would make it stop.

    "Vote for May's Deal to Make It Stop......"

    And why did the Brexiteers not do that?

    As Matthew Parris says, they don't actually want it to stop. Neverending debate over Brexit is their Nirvana
    I think there is some truth in this. The highly negative politics of division that they thrive on is based on an outraged sense of faux injustice. Things to get red in the face about. They will continue to hate Jonny and Joanne Foreigner after Brexit of course, but they know this will be more difficult to blame him now that we have "taken back control". Maybe they will move their hatred to each other, the " I am more pure Brexit than you are" phase of their psychosis
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    I'm increasingly coming to the Norway idea. It seems to please almost no one, and therefore is probably a good candidate for a national compromise.

    As someone pointed out earlier, if this stops free trade deals that Tory ultras dream of making, then they can revisit it at a later date via a manifesto commitment (although not all the party will want it in there). It would have to be in the form of, over the course of the next parliament we will exit a customs union in a staged process allowing time for business to adjust.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
    There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.

    Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.

    Funny old world.
    I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.

    And Big G is Manchester born as well.

    Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Redux said:

    I suspect it depends a lot on what the question is. If its specific option vs Remain, Remain will benefit from those not liking that particular Leave option either voting against it or abstaining. If its another Leave vs Remain vote (which I really wouldn't see the point in) there is a bigger chance of this happening. My personal experience, fwiw, is the vast majority would do the same but the two people I've spoken to who would vote differently, say they would change from Leave to Remain.

    Of course the one option that I wouldn't put past May to do (oh wait, she might not be that clever) is to have Leave vs Remain and, if Leave wins, and without further recourse to anyone, say "great, my deal is Leave so that is the WA ratified and off we go."
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    From that, it also sounds like leave to appeal has to be granted and isn't automatic? Given the established facts of the case, how likely is such a grant? I don't really see what arguments she has for appeal other than that she doesn't like the verdict and wants another go.
    You can, AIUI, appeal on the grounds that the case wasn't conducted correctly. Isn't that what the guy in the speedboat case is doing? (From hiding!)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited January 2019
    .
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    I almost agree.

    The reason I would make Remain narrow favourite is because a fresh referendum would not be Remain v Leave but Remain v A Specific Option. A Specific Option is not as popular as Leave.

    Otherwise I agree completely.

    Yes, it wouldn't be a rerun of the 2016 referendum, it would be a choice of (probably) May's Deal vs Remain.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    This is all a bit anecdotal, and the polling does consistently suggest a shift from Leave to Remain. Obviously it could shift back during a campaign, but I don't think it's deniable that some shift has occurred.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I almost agree.

    The reason I would make Remain narrow favourite is because a fresh referendum would not be Remain v Leave but Remain v A Specific Option. A Specific Option is not as popular as Leave.

    Otherwise I agree completely.

    Yes, it wouldn't be a rerun of the 2016 referendum, it would be a choice of (probably) May's Deal vs Remain.
    And how would that form of referendum get past Parly ? The ERG, DUP and most of the Cons bar the Euro-loons wouldn't support it.

    Neither would many on the Labour side - in case Leave won again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,755

    This is spot on from Mike.

    The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.

    Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.

    Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?
    Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.

    Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
    That was the fundamental problem for remain the last time. Very few people can find anything positive to say about the EU, even if they have reservations about how we would do outside it. How anyone could have a better view of the EU today than they did in 2016 after the last 2 years is really beyond my comprehension.

    FWIW I also know very few people who have changed their minds but I do know a few who voted remain but think that the last vote has to be delivered on for good or ill. In fairness that viewpoint is quite well represented on PB too. How would they vote? I am really not sure, most have not changed their minds about the underlying merits of the decision.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Pro_Rata said:

    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
    There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.

    Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.

    Funny old world.
    I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.

    And Big G is Manchester born as well.

    Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.
    We did have one, but he's banned.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    After the worst performance by a government and PM in living memory what is to-day's top story? Corbyn refusing to enter discussions. Who could have guessed?

    We've almost certainly got the worst PM most of us can remember but to have the worst leader of the opposition at the same time is surely unique.

    nah youre in France where its Macron versus LePen.

    Lis les journaux Roger
    I've lis..ed les journals It's wall to wall Thierry Henry V Patrick Vieira. They wouldn't know Corbyn from a malfunctioning urinal and talking to my restaurateur friend Macron is OK.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Arch tweets from bien pensant remainers going down well on PB do not a referendum win.

    Ain't that the truth! Remain won Twitter, but lost the referendum.
    Leave famously won Facebook though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    This is spot on from Mike.

    The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.

    Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.

    Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?
    Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.

    Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
    David Cameron wasn't especially good at elections. He should probably have done better against Brown than he did, and he 'won' the 2015 one against his coalition partners, not against Labour.
  • I'm increasingly coming to the Norway idea. It seems to please almost no one, and therefore is probably a good candidate for a national compromise.

    As someone pointed out earlier, if this stops free trade deals that Tory ultras dream of making, then they can revisit it at a later date via a manifesto commitment (although not all the party will want it in there). It would have to be in the form of, over the course of the next parliament we will exit a customs union in a staged process allowing time for business to adjust.

    I think this is how it should be sold to the headbangers. If you want something more "pure" you will need to agitate for it, but this is a staging post for you to do so, (or perhaps a staging post back to full membership when most Brexiteers have gone fully gaga )
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    O/T I do find it gobsmackingly incredible that now, and only now, two and a half years after becoming PM, Theresa May has decided it might be a good idea to talk to other parties about how to implement a narrowly won, deeply divisive referendum decision.

    And even then she is choosing to take an "everything is on the table apart from the things I am ruling out" line.

    Un-be-liev-ab-le!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Another "Leave versus Remain" vote would be to ask a silly question a second time, and not expect a silly answer.

    One is "whatever the voter wants it to be", the other is something specific that can be attacked. The Independent Commission on Referendums suggested that, if possible, referendums should be post-legislative - to give a go/no-go to something that's specific and ready-to-go; if it's for an indicative direction, they should be two-referendum processes (First one: "Let's go in this direction" (eg Leave/Remain); second one: "We accept this Leave proposal"). Another Leave/Remain referendum would solve nothing, anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. P, Meaningful Vote - Episode II: Attack of the Clones?
  • This is spot on from Mike.

    The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.

    Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.

    Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?
    Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.

    Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
    David Cameron wasn't especially good at elections. He should probably have done better against Brown than he did, and he 'won' the 2015 one against his coalition partners, not against Labour.
    Well.

    Its a view.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    That was the fundamental problem for remain the last time. Very few people can find anything positive to say about the EU, even if they have reservations about how we would do outside it. How anyone could have a better view of the EU today than they did in 2016 after the last 2 years is really beyond my comprehension.

    I am not sure that is true.

    Every positive thing about the EU was dismissed by the Leave campaign and their never-ending torrent of populist bullshit, which we know attracts more votes than reality.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,755
    Pro_Rata said:

    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
    There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.

    Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.

    Funny old world.
    I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.

    And Big G is Manchester born as well.

    Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.
    It's not really the sort of thing you admit in polite company is it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited January 2019
    DavidL said:

    This is spot on from Mike.

    The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.

    Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.

    Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?
    Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.

    Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
    That was the fundamental problem for remain the last time. Very few people can find anything positive to say about the EU, even if they have reservations about how we would do outside it. How anyone could have a better view of the EU today than they did in 2016 after the last 2 years is really beyond my comprehension.

    FWIW I also know very few people who have changed their minds but I do know a few who voted remain but think that the last vote has to be delivered on for good or ill. In fairness that viewpoint is quite well represented on PB too. How would they vote? I am really not sure, most have not changed their minds about the underlying merits of the decision.
    Just like if Lab appointed a new, sensible leader, likewise if I was presented with a Deal vs Remain option on a ballot I would have a lot of thinking to do.

    Dave's deal for me secured some very welcome, perhaps vital concessions from the EU. Plus there is the fact that how on earth will they view us in any negotiation about anything thinking that we might flounce out again. It will also likely have hardened attitudes of our erstwhile EU allies to some extent against us.

    That said I'd probably vote Remain again but it is by no means a slam dunk.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    O/T I do find it gobsmackingly incredible that now, and only now, two and a half years after becoming PM, Theresa May has decided it might be a good idea to talk to other parties about how to implement a narrowly won, deeply divisive referendum decision.

    And even then she is choosing to take an "everything is on the table apart from the things I am ruling out" line.

    Un-be-liev-ab-le!

    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1085849767631118336
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    From that, it also sounds like leave to appeal has to be granted and isn't automatic? Given the established facts of the case, how likely is such a grant? I don't really see what arguments she has for appeal other than that she doesn't like the verdict and wants another go.
    You can, AIUI, appeal on the grounds that the case wasn't conducted correctly. Isn't that what the guy in the speedboat case is doing? (From hiding!)
    From my days conducting employment and exclusion hearings as a school governor, there were always three good grounds for appeal:
    - process failures leading to the applicant being disadvantaged or the conclusion potentially compromised;
    - a clearly perverse judgement given the evidence presented;
    - new and compelling evidence.

    I don't know whether the courts apply the same rules but they seemed pretty good principles to me.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2019
    Very hard to say how a referendum would go - as Alastair says, the options would be much more specific this time. What I think is clear is that views have become more polarised, which in itself means a referendum would be damaging rather than a way of healing the divisions.

    However, the purpose of a referendum would be to come to a decision, bypassing the grandstanding of MPs. If it were Revoke vs Orderly Leave, both options would be viable and either could be implemented.

    It's not a good course of action, because of the anger it would provoke whatever the options. Starting from here, the best (or rather least bad) course of action remains the deal on the table.

    But if MPs are determined to sabotage that, another referendum is the second least bad way of moving forward, since it would give at least a figleaf of democratic cover for ignoring the 2016 referendum or alternatively for ratifying the negotiated deal.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Tony Blair today joined condemnation of Jeremy Corbyn for refusing to hold Brexit talks with the PM. Mr Blair said it was wrong for the Opposition leader to snub a meeting with the premier at a 'moment of national crisis'.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6601991/Tony-Blair-joins-condemnation-Corbyn-REFUSING-hold-Brexit-talks.html

    The cult will now definitely be convinced Jezza is making the correct decision.

    A surprising mistake by someone as politcally astute as Blair. If he wants Corbyn to negotiate he should tell him not to do so.
  • Scott_P said:
    Let's face it, he was just too lazy to go and see her last night. I loathe the SNP, but at least we can see that their leaders in the HoC and back in Scotland are proper serious politicians. Corbyn is just a joke, a low intellect lightweight who is completely out of his depth.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pro_Rata said:

    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
    There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.

    Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.

    Funny old world.
    I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.

    And Big G is Manchester born as well.

    Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.
    I don’t think any of the PB ‘Scousers’ are even slightly scouse. Hence why I find their goading of Utd fans slightly off. At least many of the Utd fans on here have a distinct connection to Greater Manchester!
  • All of this discussion shows why an A50 *extension* should be ( and I think now actually is ) the immeadiate priority of Operation Underwood. Remain not only needs a gateway drug our best weapon at the moment is the industrial mass of reality. Another referendum immeadiately moves the battle front back to Leave's best territory - emotion, slogans, campaigning. If we campaign in poetry but govern in propose then Remain needs to keep the debate in prose for as long as possible. Thankfully I think those running Operation Underwood see this and at least esoterically are running that strategy while People's Vote remains the legacy exoteric brand.
  • glw said:

    Tony Blair today joined condemnation of Jeremy Corbyn for refusing to hold Brexit talks with the PM. Mr Blair said it was wrong for the Opposition leader to snub a meeting with the premier at a 'moment of national crisis'.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6601991/Tony-Blair-joins-condemnation-Corbyn-REFUSING-hold-Brexit-talks.html

    The cult will now definitely be convinced Jezza is making the correct decision.

    A surprising mistake by someone as politcally astute as Blair. If he wants Corbyn to negotiate he should tell him not to do so.
    He was speaking publically to his own followers rather than Corbyn's, the latter of whom he has (quite rightly) absolute contempt for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    tlg86 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
    There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.

    Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.

    Funny old world.
    I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.

    And Big G is Manchester born as well.

    Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.
    We did have one, but he's banned.
    Is he banned - or did he flounce?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    edited January 2019
    Well it depends. If the same generic question as 2016 were posed again I could see Leave winning again. Although I could see Remain winning too. Very hard to call. What is not hard to call is the result of Remain vs Mrs May's trashed deal that almost every one of the leading Leave campaigners from last time are on record as saying is an abomination. If this were to be the question, it would be of the rhetorical variety. In that event I'm a buyer of Remain at 60 for ruinous stakes and would not lose a single wink of sleep. Not a genuine contest, which is one of the many reasons it will not be happening. Nor will any other formulation IMO. Parliament must decide and I think they will. Come on you parliament!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,755

    This is spot on from Mike.

    The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.

    Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.

    Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?
    Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.

    Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
    David Cameron wasn't especially good at elections. He should probably have done better against Brown than he did, and he 'won' the 2015 one against his coalition partners, not against Labour.
    I think that you greatly underestimate how far behind the Tories were in 2010. They started with under 200 seats. Blair had won over huge tranches of their natural supporters and found a series of ways to enhance incumbency. I think it is quite hard to describe the result as much short of spectacular for the Tories. To then increase his number of seats to a majority in office was again unusual if not unique.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because

    1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
    2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
    3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.

    The question will surely be "revoke or not revoke"; May's deal has been trashed by a huge margin, it's a norwegian blue, it's not being put in front of the public
    I prefer. Last time we asked you a stupid question. You gave us a stupid answer. So we're not going to ask you again.
  • All of this discussion shows why an A50 *extension* should be ( and I think now actually is ) the immeadiate priority of Operation Underwood. Remain not only needs a gateway drug our best weapon at the moment is the industrial mass of reality. Another referendum immeadiately moves the battle front back to Leave's best territory - emotion, slogans, campaigning. If we campaign in poetry but govern in propose then Remain needs to keep the debate in prose for as long as possible. Thankfully I think those running Operation Underwood see this and at least esoterically are running that strategy while People's Vote remains the legacy exoteric brand.

    Was that some sort of coded message?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    I'm increasingly coming to the Norway idea. It seems to please almost no one, and therefore is probably a good candidate for a national compromise.

    As someone pointed out earlier, if this stops free trade deals that Tory ultras dream of making, then they can revisit it at a later date via a manifesto commitment (although not all the party will want it in there). It would have to be in the form of, over the course of the next parliament we will exit a customs union in a staged process allowing time for business to adjust.

    I think this is how it should be sold to the headbangers. If you want something more "pure" you will need to agitate for it, but this is a staging post for you to do so, (or perhaps a staging post back to full membership when most Brexiteers have gone fully gaga )
    Exactly. The ultras need to accept that they get Brexit if they go down this route. They certainly get a form that I think most leave voters vaguely understood as what leave meant e.g. not no deal chaos.

    If they don't compromise, the prize will/may slip away.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    tlg86 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
    There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.

    Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.

    Funny old world.
    I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.

    And Big G is Manchester born as well.

    Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.
    We did have one, but he's banned.
    Is he banned - or did he flounce?
    The person I'm thinking of is very much banned.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited January 2019
    DavidL said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.

    I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.

    I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...
    There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.

    Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.

    Funny old world.
    I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.

    And Big G is Manchester born as well.

    Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.
    It's not really the sort of thing you admit in polite company is it?
    There's an old and dreadfully unfair 'joke'

    Q. What do you call a scouser in a suit?
    A. The defendant.
This discussion has been closed.