The only possible option would be May's Deal vs Remain. The former is leaving, the latter staying. Anything else would cause more confusion than we have today which would be A LOT of confusion.
I'm coming round to the idea. I don't particularly like it - but I can't see many alternatives which I dislike less.
Me too. No Deal is irresponsible in any shape or form. May's Deal has been clobbered in parliament because almost no-one voted for it at the time of the referendum. Which leaves three options I think:
1. Revoke Article 50 and set up a commission to work out ways forward. This would be sensible policy option in situations where you need a rethink, but the politics is dire.
2. Rework May's Deal into something acceptable to at least half of MPs, which probably means SM+CU. This has some merit because that's the likely direction of travel after leaving anyway. It doesn't feel good though because you are focusing on what gets through the process rather than on the intrinsic merit of the solution.
3. Accept that the population narrowly voted to leave the European Union and also that no good way of doing so has been found. So you go back to ask the people do you wish to go ahead anyway? The fact it's divisive is actually an argument for a referendum. Given you are going to piss off half the population, it's best to piss them off democratically. And this route is clear cut. May's Deal or Remain. No further discussions required (until we leave the EU in the case of May's Deal).
So your three options are
1. Remain 2. Remain in all but name. 3. Try and get public to vote Remain this time.
Let me take one guess how you voted in 2016 ...
...and no need for us to guess which leave faction you belong to.
The only possible option would be May's Deal vs Remain. The former is leaving, the latter staying. Anything else would cause more confusion than we have today which would be A LOT of confusion.
I'm coming round to the idea. I don't particularly like it - but I can't see many alternatives which I dislike less.
Me too. No Deal is irresponsible in any shape or form. May's Deal has been clobbered in parliament because almost no-one voted for it at the time of the referendum. Which leaves three options I think:
1. Revoke Article 50 and set up a commission to work out ways forward. This would be sensible policy option in situations where you need a rethink, but the politics is dire.
2. Rework May's Deal into something acceptable to at least half of MPs, which probably means SM+CU. This has some merit because that's the likely direction of travel after leaving anyway. It doesn't feel good though because you are focusing on what gets through the process rather than on the intrinsic merit of the solution.
3. Accept that the population narrowly voted to leave the European Union and also that no good way of doing so has been found. So you go back to ask the people do you wish to go ahead anyway? The fact it's divisive is actually an argument for a referendum. Given you are going to piss off half the population, it's best to piss them off democratically. And this route is clear cut. May's Deal or Remain. No further discussions required (until we leave the EU in the case of May's Deal).
So your three options are
1. Remain 2. Remain in all but name. 3. Try and get public to vote Remain this time.
Let me take one guess how you voted in 2016 ...
And by the way I don't accept that Vassal State or Common Market 2.0, or whatever spin you want to put on it, is actually Remain in Name Only. The point of membership is that you get a say and are part of something.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
This also plays in a loop until the wishes collapse and only actual options are left, indeed separating the wishes from the options is part of the necessary process.
Sorry but seek an extension is a wish - As I really can't see the EU offering it.
Now you can list a set of options for the eventual end state and even the we can't make a decision so lets split the country permanently in half with another referendum option but seek an extension isn't part of any of those end states.
Then once you've decided on the end state that Parliament wants you can then work out how on earth you get there. As I suspect the only way you get an extension is to walk in with a notice to Revoke and ask very politely...
I'm not disputing any of that. Some of the options I give are end states, some are options to head in a direction to determine between or try and find other end states (e.g. referendum, further negotiation), with the dependencies stated explicitly. Some in parliament would like a Norway like deal, for example. That is not a currently available end state, but attempting the process of bringing it onboard as an end state is a viable next action that MPs could direct on, as are various referendum options. If the EU won't extend to allow a given option, then that option collapses and Parliament reviews again until actual end state is reached.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
Not likely to endear the LibDems to Remain voters - particularly as they have been pressing for such a vote!
I don't think that follows. Remain voters want a second referendum and see Corbyn as deliberating frustrating that with his threats of continuing VONCs. If Cable can stop the games playing and wasting of valuable parliamentary time, he'll be applauded by Remainers.
Well that's an attack. It has however removed the threat of a no confidence vote on January 30th so we should be thankful for small mercies...
It has done no such thing. It would help Labour in places like Sheffield Hallam to table a VONC with the LibDems supporting the Tories or abstaining. LibDems are also at serious risk of losing or being denied anti-Tory tactical votes in seats already held or targetted.
Nah - might have been true had the Lib Dems not supported the first motion of no confidence, or the DUP reversed position.
Actually putting the pressure on Corbyn to follow his own party policy will be very useful both to get a result, and to campaign against Corbyn, whose ratings are going down fast
And a GE is the last thing we need right now, resolving nothing.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
I have noticed on here that whenever the Tories have a turned in another disastrous shocker, the PBT attacks on Corbyn go from merely sedately constant to absolute rabid fever pitch. It is fascinating to watch the correlation.
Welcome - from what I have seen the attacks in general pick up on Corbyn mainly because any competent LOTO would be streets ahead in a situation as this. Any competent leader would have already removed her. Corbyn’s leadership ratings are going down AGAINST the prime minister with the biggest parliamentary defeat in history.
Take today Corbyn is playing politics with the no deal stipulation. He knows that May can’t formally do this without splitting her own party asunder. As a political trap it is inept but particularly when you see the types of people he has had dialogue with in the past in the name of consensus building.
Why do people assume that at eighteen your opinions are fixed for life? Apart from Jezza, there's few who don't mature. Polly could be an exception too.
Edit:
I was a Labour voter at eighteen, moved to the LDs in my forties, and now I'm homeless. I was in favour of the Common market at twenty-five, and in my early sixties I finally saw sense.
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
That's remarkable given that JRM studied Modern History at Oxford - I await TSE's comment on the quality of that university's History Department.
The only possible option would be May's Deal vs Remain. The former is leaving, the latter staying. Anything else would cause more confusion than we have today which would be A LOT of confusion.
I'm coming round to the idea. I don't particularly like it - but I can't see many alternatives which I dislike less.
Me too. No Deal is irresponsible in any shape or form. May's Deal has been clobbered in parliament because almost no-one voted for it at the time of the referendum. Which leaves three options I think:
1. Revoke Article 50 and set up a commission to work out ways forward. This would be sensible policy option in situations where you need a rethink, but the politics is dire.
2. Rework May's Deal into something acceptable to at least half of MPs, which probably means SM+CU. This has some merit because that's the likely direction of travel after leaving anyway. It doesn't feel good though because you are focusing on what gets through the process rather than on the intrinsic merit of the solution.
3. Accept that the population narrowly voted to leave the European Union and also that no good way of doing so has been found. So you go back to ask the people do you wish to go ahead anyway? The fact it's divisive is actually an argument for a referendum. Given you are going to piss off half the population, it's best to piss them off democratically. And this route is clear cut. May's Deal or Remain. No further discussions required (until we leave the EU in the case of May's Deal).
So your three options are
1. Remain 2. Remain in all but name. 3. Try and get public to vote Remain this time.
Let me take one guess how you voted in 2016 ...
And by the way I don't accept that Vassal State or Common Market 2.0, or whatever spin you want to put on it, is actually Remain in Name Only. The point of membership is that you get a say and are part of something.
So it would be worse than Remain? Basically Remain minus [voting privileges]
I think Mike's experience and assumptions apply to a good proportion of both Leavers and Remainers - say (shrugs) 50-70 per cent of the electorate. They have a settled will, and although many won't be as dogmatic about it as Rees-Mogg or Soubry, have no intention of changing their minds. But even at the upper end of my total guess - indeed even if it were 90 per cent - there's room for a changed result in Ref2 from a few % of waverers
While I understand misgivings around the complexity of a three-option/two question/AV vote, it seems to me the one least likely to rip the Tories apart. If those unwilling to countenance No Deal or Remain don't have the confidence that either of *two* alternatives could beat their least favoured option, perhaps their position isn't as strong as they thought. I guess the suspicion is the EU wouldn't extend A50 for that?
Although I think there's a decent argument for a confirmatory vote on the detail two years on, and a decent argument to exclude No Deal, I can see why those are politically dangerous.
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
It is quite a nasty post. It is a great sadness, however, that another big downside to this whole unnecessary nonsense is that it has the older generation, of which I am almost part, saying to the younger, "fuck what you want, we want to exercise our rights to be prejudiced against the foreigners"
Are older voters saying that? Well maybe some are... But then you get all sorts of people saying all sorts of things.
In the end all older voters have done is vote for what they thought was the right thing after Cameron, the government and the UK Parliament gave them that opportunity.
The fact a lot (but by no means all) of them happened to vote leave and be on the winning side doesn't mean they should then be subjected to the kind of abuse Remainers like Polly Toynbee are subjecting them to.
And where does this end? Maybe the next referendum should stop anyone over the age of 70 or 75 from voting in it at all?
How about IQ tests at polling stations and people who fail aren't allowed to vote?
And while we're at it the Tories could ban people on benefits from voting too...
The only possible option would be May's Deal vs Remain. The former is leaving, the latter staying. Anything else would cause more confusion than we have today which would be A LOT of confusion.
I'm coming round to the idea. I don't particularly like it - but I can't see many alternatives which I dislike less.
Me too. No Deal is irresponsible in any shape or form. May's Deal has been clobbered in parliament because almost no-one voted for it at the time of the referendum. Which leaves three options I think:
1. Revoke Article 50 and set up a commission to work out ways forward. This would be sensible policy option in situations where you need a rethink, but the politics is dire.
2. Rework May's Deal into something acceptable to at least half of MPs, which probably means SM+CU. This has some merit because that's the likely direction of travel after leaving anyway. It doesn't feel good though because you are focusing on what gets through the process rather than on the intrinsic merit of the solution.
3. Accept that the population narrowly voted to leave the European Union and also that no good way of doing so has been found. So you go back to ask the people do you wish to go ahead anyway? The fact it's divisive is actually an argument for a referendum. Given you are going to piss off half the population, it's best to piss them off democratically. And this route is clear cut. May's Deal or Remain. No further discussions required (until we leave the EU in the case of May's Deal).
So your three options are
1. Remain 2. Remain in all but name. 3. Try and get public to vote Remain this time.
Let me take one guess how you voted in 2016 ...
And by the way I don't accept that Vassal State or Common Market 2.0, or whatever spin you want to put on it, is actually Remain in Name Only. The point of membership is that you get a say and are part of something.
So it would be worse than Remain? Basically Remain minus [voting privileges]
Any Brexit is worse than Remain. It just makes some people feel better. That much has been obvious from the beginning.
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.
Sounds like you should leave the tennis club then and seek out golf club membership instead.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
That's remarkable given that JRM studied Modern History at Oxford - I await TSE's comment on the quality of that university's History Department.
Just because JRM talks in a slow strangulated voice, don't make the mistake of assuming that he's intelligent. He's not. Quite a lot of what he says is utter nonsense.
As for Oxford, I have met lots of Oxbridge graduates in the City, have interviewed a fair number of them and have rarely been particularly impressed with any of them. Most people in public life have little understanding of what has happened in the last 10 years let along any proper history, whatever their degree might say.
Corbyn is campaigning for the next election and, given how marginal Hastings is, he’s being very canny.
First he needs to win a no confidence and the LibDems have just walked from his little scheme.
He's thinking of 2022. If beforehand doesn't work. Endless campaigning below the radar in lots of marginal seats. It's clever politics. Corbyn, loathsome as he and his politics beliefs are, should never be underestimated. Too many are doing just that.
Well quite. In their desperation to achieve a Remain outcome, the Liberal Democrats are playing into Corbyn's hands. He wants to avoid as much responsibility for the outcome of Brexit as possible - and he certainly doesn't want to be anywhere near power before it is resolved - and now he and all the rest of his party have a fresh opportunity to drag up the legacy of the Coalition and accuse the Lib Dems of willingly propping up the Tories again.
The optics of refusing to no confidence a Conservative Government are very difficult for all smaller parties in the Commons (other, obviously, than the DUP, whose circumstances are exceptional.) It invites the immediate accusation from Labour that they're helping to keep Theresa May in office, and are therefore condoning and facilitating Tory policy.
This would certainly help explain why both major parties are unwilling to support a second referendum. The trouble unfortunately is that there is a plan for leaving, of the many alternatives mooted, that commands sufficient support to see it passed. That’s not a good reason to remain in the EU by default but it could easily happen because most MPs are Remain supporters.
The fact that the EU won’t discuss trade in a meaningful manner until they have us trapped in the Withdrawal Act from which we can’t escape without being trapped into signing up to all EU laws says a lot about the EU and why we are right to leave.
The attitude of the EU and the woeful shortcomings of our MPs, on both sides of the debate, make it a seemingly binary choice - no deal or Remain. I am not sure most people would choose to Leave on that basis.
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.
Sounds like you should leave the tennis club then and seek out golf club membership instead.
to paraphrase Al: "I would happily stay at my tennis club if they definitively stopped playing tennis and started playing golf".
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.
The LibDems remain very vulnerable to the 'Tories'Little Helpers' charge , and is one of the reasons they have failed to make progress. Seats such as East Dunbartonshire- Sutton Carshalton - Twickenham - Kingston & Surbiton - Bath could easily be lost if that label sticks firmly again.Target seats such as Richmond and St Ives would also be at risk.
Corbyn is campaigning for the next election and, given how marginal Hastings is, he’s being very canny.
First he needs to win a no confidence and the LibDems have just walked from his little scheme.
He's thinking of 2022. If beforehand doesn't work. Endless campaigning below the radar in lots of marginal seats. It's clever politics. Corbyn, loathsome as he and his politics beliefs are, should never be underestimated. Too many are doing just that.
Well quite. In their desperation to achieve a Remain outcome, the Liberal Democrats are playing into Corbyn's hands. He wants to avoid as much responsibility for the outcome of Brexit as possible - and he certainly doesn't want to be anywhere near power before it is resolved - and now he and all the rest of his party have a fresh opportunity to drag up the legacy of the Coalition and accuse the Lib Dems of willingly propping up the Tories again.
The optics of refusing to no confidence a Conservative Government are very difficult for all smaller parties in the Commons (other, obviously, than the DUP, whose circumstances are exceptional.) It invites the immediate accusation from Labour that they're helping to keep Theresa May in office, and are therefore condoning and facilitating Tory policy.
I'm sure I read somewhere that if only 600,000 people had voted Remain instead of Leave, Remain would have won.
I know of a few people who have changed their minds and would now vote Remain. I don't think it is at all a slam dunk that Leave would still win were there to be another referendum.
We've sometimes speculated about the impact of the weather on general elections and other public votes - but might it soon affect the votes of MPs?
Following on from the sudden stratospheric warming that I previously mentioned, the Met Office is now forecasting that the weather may turn very cold by the end of January. There might even be snow at Westminster.
Might this accentuate the feeling of impending crisis? Could it concentrate minds? Might it leave some MPs stranded in their constituencies?
MPs are, after all, only human* and they feel the cold just like the rest of us.
* Except for those representing the lizard-people who, being cold-blooded, feel the cold even more!
I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.
Seems to me May's approach of actively courting support (or at least canvassing views) means that automatic opposition from smaller parties is bound to be weakened. Especially given Corbyn's own lack of vision or willingness to compromise.. I can see why the LDs and others are willing to show a bit of leg to try and get what they want from TMay.
That said, I have doubts that May is flexible enough (either on her own account or because she fears her own right wing) to move far enough to win their support either.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.
Oh, and your subs are going up to pay for a dressage facility in Estonia.
I think Mike's experience and assumptions apply to a good proportion of both Leavers and Remainers - say (shrugs) 50-70 per cent of the electorate. They have a settled will, and although many won't be as dogmatic about it as Rees-Mogg or Soubry, have no intention of changing their minds. But even at the upper end of my total guess - indeed even if it were 90 per cent - there's room for a changed result in Ref2 from a few % of waverers
While I understand misgivings around the complexity of a three-option/two question/AV vote, it seems to me the one least likely to rip the Tories apart. If those unwilling to countenance No Deal or Remain don't have the confidence that either of *two* alternatives could beat their least favoured option, perhaps their position isn't as strong as they thought. I guess the suspicion is the EU wouldn't extend A50 for that?
Although I think there's a decent argument for a confirmatory vote on the detail two years on, and a decent argument to exclude No Deal, I can see why those are politically dangerous.
Are you referring to a third (or fourth, I supposed) referendum on the issue at the end there?
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.
Odd for the respective HR departments to mess something like this up. Or for Santander to be so surprised. They have paid the fees of banks like Merrills for years. They know the numbers. And the Chair of the UK entity is Shriti Vadera, an ex-UBS banker herself, so she will have known the score.
Maybe there is some other reason. It certainly does not help the image of the City at a time like this to have such arguments played out in public.
For some reason Ana has decided ‘no’ - the board wouldn’t do this without her blessing. I haven’t asked her why, but it won’t be the money. As you guess, she knows the score and it was “only” $60m
What’s more intriguing is why Andrea let it happen. I don’t think he cares that much about the money (I know him slightly and rate him) - he has more than enough - sonit must be something else.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.
something like 70% of the allies were ethnic german. The UK forces had Hanoverians and the Kings German Legion.
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
It is quite a nasty post. It is a great sadness, however, that another big downside to this whole unnecessary nonsense is that it has the older generation, of which I am almost part, saying to the younger, "fuck what you want, we want to exercise our rights to be prejudiced against the foreigners"
Are older voters saying that? Well maybe some are... But then you get all sorts of people saying all sorts of things.
In the end all older voters have done is vote for what they thought was the right thing after Cameron, the government and the UK Parliament gave them that opportunity.
The fact a lot (but by no means all) of them happened to vote leave and be on the winning side doesn't mean they should then be subjected to the kind of abuse Remainers like Polly Toynbee are subjecting them to.
And where does this end? Maybe the next referendum should stop anyone over the age of 70 or 75 from voting in it at all?
How about IQ tests at polling stations and people who fail aren't allowed to vote?
And while we're at it the Tories could ban people on benefits from voting too...
Given that state pensions are a benefit, that would be an extremely unwise strategy.
Despite the noise, discussions in fact do seem to have started. The despair can be overdone.
Would those be discussions as in:
(a) a serious attempt to reach some sort of compromise that most of us can at least learn not to hate, or (b) having a couple of useless meetings, at the end of which everyone emerges and says everyone else isn't listening, which means I'm going to stick to my position (which is obviously 100% right and has been all along, so there)
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.
You are more than welcome to focus on the golf. And I noticed that your family were here the other day on the ski slopes and your nephew in particular loved the new snowboard jumps we put up. In fact it's only you who has complained. Your wife in particular, who you know loathes golf, enjoys meeting her friends in our new cafe.
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
It is quite a nasty post. It is a great sadness, however, that another big downside to this whole unnecessary nonsense is that it has the older generation, of which I am almost part, saying to the younger, "fuck what you want, we want to exercise our rights to be prejudiced against the foreigners"
Are older voters saying that? Well maybe some are... But then you get all sorts of people saying all sorts of things.
In the end all older voters have done is vote for what they thought was the right thing after Cameron, the government and the UK Parliament gave them that opportunity.
The fact a lot (but by no means all) of them happened to vote leave and be on the winning side doesn't mean they should then be subjected to the kind of abuse Remainers like Polly Toynbee are subjecting them to.
And where does this end? Maybe the next referendum should stop anyone over the age of 70 or 75 from voting in it at all?
How about IQ tests at polling stations and people who fail aren't allowed to vote?
And while we're at it the Tories could ban people on benefits from voting too...
Given that state pensions are a benefit, that would be an extremely unwise strategy.
Though the people claiming state pension would say they've paid for it through NI.
My late father paid NI from 1966 to 2013 and claimed just two years of it back before he died so HMG didn't do so bad out of it...
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.
You are more than welcome to focus on the golf. And I noticed that your family were here the other day on the ski slopes and your nephew in particular loved the new snowboard jumps we put up. In fact it's only you who has complained. Your wife in particular, who you know loathes golf, enjoys meeting her friends in our new cafe.
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.
You are more than welcome to focus on the golf. And I noticed that your family were here the other day on the ski slopes and your nephew in particular loved the new snowboard jumps we put up. In fact it's only you who has complained. Your wife in particular, who you know loathes golf, enjoys meeting her friends in our new cafe.
She wasn’t that happy that so many of the newer members seem to be sleeping rough, eating the swans off the lake at hole 9 and begging outside the clubhouse though.
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
It is quite a nasty post. It is a great sadness, however, that another big downside to this whole unnecessary nonsense is that it has the older generation, of which I am almost part, saying to the younger, "fuck what you want, we want to exercise our rights to be prejudiced against the foreigners"
Are older voters saying that? Well maybe some are... But then you get all sorts of people saying all sorts of things.
In the end all older voters have done is vote for what they thought was the right thing after Cameron, the government and the UK Parliament gave them that opportunity.
The fact a lot (but by no means all) of them happened to vote leave and be on the winning side doesn't mean they should then be subjected to the kind of abuse Remainers like Polly Toynbee are subjecting them to.
And where does this end? Maybe the next referendum should stop anyone over the age of 70 or 75 from voting in it at all?
How about IQ tests at polling stations and people who fail aren't allowed to vote?
And while we're at it the Tories could ban people on benefits from voting too...
Given that state pensions are a benefit, that would be an extremely unwise strategy.
Though the people claiming state pension would say they've paid for it through NI.
My late father paid NI from 1966 to 2013 and claimed just two years of it back before he died so HMG didn't do so bad out of it...
You can claim whatever you like. State pensions are a benefit. So is Working Tax Credit, and indeed Child Benefit. Defined in Law. People on benefits are almost everyone.
Corbyn is campaigning for the next election and, given how marginal Hastings is, he’s being very canny.
First he needs to win a no confidence and the LibDems have just walked from his little scheme.
He's thinking of 2022. If beforehand doesn't work. Endless campaigning below the radar in lots of marginal seats. It's clever politics. Corbyn, loathsome as he and his politics beliefs are, should never be underestimated. Too many are doing just that.
Well quite. In their desperation to achieve a Remain outcome, the Liberal Democrats are playing into Corbyn's hands. He wants to avoid as much responsibility for the outcome of Brexit as possible - and he certainly doesn't want to be anywhere near power before it is resolved - and now he and all the rest of his party have a fresh opportunity to drag up the legacy of the Coalition and accuse the Lib Dems of willingly propping up the Tories again.
The optics of refusing to no confidence a Conservative Government are very difficult for all smaller parties in the Commons (other, obviously, than the DUP, whose circumstances are exceptional.) It invites the immediate accusation from Labour that they're helping to keep Theresa May in office, and are therefore condoning and facilitating Tory policy.
Thats utterly disgusting
Yeah, it is pretty bad, but unfortunately that's where we are at the extreme edges of the debate. For example, treason accusations from one band of maniacs, lauding the demise of pensioners from the other.
I'm not sure if it's a case of society getting coarser and more polarised, or of anti-social media pouring kerosene on the fire. Most likely one feeding off the other.
Odd for the respective HR departments to mess something like this up. Or for Santander to be so surprised. They have paid the fees of banks like Merrills for years. They know the numbers. And the Chair of the UK entity is Shriti Vadera, an ex-UBS banker herself, so she will have known the score.
Maybe there is some other reason. It certainly does not help the image of the City at a time like this to have such arguments played out in public.
For some reason Ana has decided ‘no’ - the board wouldn’t do this without her blessing. I haven’t asked her why, but it won’t be the money. As you guess, she knows the score and it was “only” $60m
What’s more intriguing is why Andrea let it happen. I don’t think he cares that much about the money (I know him slightly and rate him) - he has more than enough - sonit must be something else.
That's my reading. I think this is not about the money but something else. I know him quite well and rate him too.
What I find puzzling is why this has been allowed to come out in public. Not least because Andrea has been very close indeed to the Botin family since Merrills days- and not just on a work level. A statement that the appointment was not going ahead because of personal reasons would have sufficed.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.
I'd recommend Bernard Cornwell's account of the Battle of Waterloo. I've never read anything that explains it all so clearly.
Unlike a lot of British authors, he doesn't underrate Napoleon. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Napoleon won three out of the four battles of the campaign, and only lost the last by a hairs-breadth. His mistakes (and Wellington's and Blucher's) were down to the lack of information caused by the primitive communications of the time.
I also think it far from assured that remain would win a second vote. However that’s almost beside the point. If you want to remain you don’t really have any other option bar a unilateral revocation, which would almost surely lead to a referendum anyway at some point - even the EU puts things to second referendums rather than ignoring results entirely (for the most part).
So in terms of an indefinite remain, it doesn’t matter that remain may well lose again, it’s still worth the risk for people’s vote supporters.
I can only see Norway or May’s deal VS remain making it onto a ballot paper. Hard to see enough MPs wanting to put No Deal on - neither the government nor most backbencher.
I’m increasingly wondering if we will simply end up in a never ending Transition period or A50 Extension peior, a bit like the reverse of Turkey’s 50 years of almost being an EU member.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.
something like 70% of the allies were ethnic german. The UK forces had Hanoverians and the Kings German Legion.
She wasn’t that happy that so many of the newer members seem to be sleeping rough, eating the swans off the lake at hole 9 and begging outside the clubhouse though.
How quickly you forget that when you first joined you turned up in tatty hand-me downs, hadn't washed for two weeks, and had to borrow your kit from that Golf place in Washington (Lincs).
I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.
The LibDems remain very vulnerable to the 'Tories'Little Helpers' charge , and is one of the reasons they have failed to make progress. Seats such as East Dunbartonshire- Sutton Carshalton - Twickenham - Kingston & Surbiton - Bath could easily be lost if that label sticks firmly again.Target seats such as Richmond and St Ives would also be at risk.
One of the odd* things about Brexit is that I'm not sure most people - even most non-Tories - see a general election this side of it being sorted^ as desirable. Given which, tarting themselves around for the best deliverable outcome may be excused.
*Odd because it's a hugely divisive issue; at the same time understandable because what alternatives are on offer? And "this is more important".
^Clearly not sorted. Shorthand for "working out WTF we're doing on Mar 29"
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.
I'd recommend Bernard Cornwell's account of the Battle of Waterloo. I've never read anything that explains it all so clearly.
Unlike a lot of British authors, he doesn't underrate Napoleon. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Napoleon won three out of the four battles of the campaign, and only lost the last by a hairs-breadth. His mistakes (and Wellington's and Blucher's) were down to the lack of information caused by the primitive communications of the time.
try Peter Hofschoer 1815 the German Victory
Like Foxy I admire this pinnacle of inter European cooperation ruined only by the French being on the other side :-)
She wasn’t that happy that so many of the newer members seem to be sleeping rough, eating the swans off the lake at hole 9 and begging outside the clubhouse though.
How quickly you forget that when you first joined you turned up in tatty hand-me downs, hadn't washed for two weeks, and had to borrow your kit from that Golf place in Washington (Lincs).
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.
I wonder how all those students who voted a Labour in the last election, bribed by the illusion of free tuition, are feeling about Corbyn refusing to take part in May’s talks. Not great I imagine.
On topic, I think a rerun of the Referendum would be disastrous. More poison, disagreement, and yes - a similar result. But even if Remain won 52:48, the EU as a whole has lost patience and doesn't want the risk of us pulling a stunt like this again a few years down the line. I hope they don't extend article 50 - if we won't sign up to the Deal, they just want us out.
I have this dream that we crash out, a few weeks (months?) of disruption and running around shouting 'the sky is falling in', GDP reduces by 5% or so, then amidst the wreckage and WTO tariffs we realise that our current political system isn't fit for purpose. Cross-party alliance stands on an 'upgrade' ticket where we move to a devolved federal governance model (regional parliaments) PR, and moving all the politicians out of the HoC for a symbolic and long-overdue upgrade. Then we'll see what kind of country emerges, what the EU looks like once we're gone - and whether there's any appetite to begin talks to rejoin.
It ain't gonna happen of course. But one can dream...
She wasn’t that happy that so many of the newer members seem to be sleeping rough, eating the swans off the lake at hole 9 and begging outside the clubhouse though.
How quickly you forget that when you first joined you turned up in tatty hand-me downs, hadn't washed for two weeks, and had to borrow your kit from that Golf place in Washington (Lincs).
I love this line - "the British political class has offered to the world an astounding spectacle of mendacious, intellectually limited hustlers."
Brothers and sisters When they insist we're just not good enough Well we know better Just look him in his eyes and say We're gonna do it anyway We're gonna do it anyway
Yeah, it is pretty bad, but unfortunately that's where we are at the extreme edges of the debate. For example, treason accusations from one band of maniacs, lauding the demise of pensioners from the other.
I'm not sure if it's a case of society getting coarser and more polarised, or of anti-social media pouring kerosene on the fire. Most likely one feeding off the other.
It's looking more and more like the polarisation is the young despising the old (believing them rightly or wrongly having thrown away their (the young's) future and squandered resources on themselves) and the old dismissing the young as being immature and irrelevant.
I know those drivers have always existed, but they seem far, far stronger today than ever before. If Brexit turns out to be even a quarter as badly damaging as has been feared, the attitudes will solidify into concrete: the young will regard it as vindication of their belief and won't forgive; the old will regard it as having been the right but difficult choice, damaged by a stab-in-the-back from [insert here].
And given that both "sides" had plenty who went in the other direction and would be unfairly tarnished whatever happens, resentment would only ever spread wider.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
That's remarkable given that JRM studied Modern History at Oxford - I await TSE's comment on the quality of that university's History Department.
Just because JRM talks in a slow strangulated voice, don't make the mistake of assuming that he's intelligent. He's not. Quite a lot of what he says is utter nonsense.
As for Oxford, I have met lots of Oxbridge graduates in the City, have interviewed a fair number of them and have rarely been particularly impressed with any of them. Most people in public life have little understanding of what has happened in the last 10 years let along any proper history, whatever their degree might say.
Oxford's where you end up if Cambridge won't have you
Yeah, it is pretty bad, but unfortunately that's where we are at the extreme edges of the debate. For example, treason accusations from one band of maniacs, lauding the demise of pensioners from the other.
I'm not sure if it's a case of society getting coarser and more polarised, or of anti-social media pouring kerosene on the fire. Most likely one feeding off the other.
It's looking more and more like the polarisation is the young despising the old (believing them rightly or wrongly having thrown away their (the young's) future and squandered resources on themselves) and the old dismissing the young as being immature and irrelevant.
I know those drivers have always existed, but they seem far, far stronger today than ever before. If Brexit turns out to be even a quarter as badly damaging as has been feared, the attitudes will solidify into concrete: the young will regard it as vindication of their belief and won't forgive; the old will regard it as having been the right but difficult choice, damaged by a stab-in-the-back from [insert here].
And given that both "sides" had plenty who went in the other direction and would be unfairly tarnished whatever happens, resentment would only ever spread wider.
how are the young planning to stay ypung ? Im afraid life only goes in one direction and age shapes your views as you go.
I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.
The LibDems remain very vulnerable to the 'Tories'Little Helpers' charge , and is one of the reasons they have failed to make progress. Seats such as East Dunbartonshire- Sutton Carshalton - Twickenham - Kingston & Surbiton - Bath could easily be lost if that label sticks firmly again.Target seats such as Richmond and St Ives would also be at risk.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.
Are you suggesting another such alliance to destroy Macron? All it takes is a few Hi-viz coats - no biggie!
Odd for the respective HR departments to mess something like this up. Or for Santander to be so surprised. They have paid the fees of banks like Merrills for years. They know the numbers. And the Chair of the UK entity is Shriti Vadera, an ex-UBS banker herself, so she will have known the score.
Maybe there is some other reason. It certainly does not help the image of the City at a time like this to have such arguments played out in public.
For some reason Ana has decided ‘no’ - the board wouldn’t do this without her blessing. I haven’t asked her why, but it won’t be the money. As you guess, she knows the score and it was “only” $60m
What’s more intriguing is why Andrea let it happen. I don’t think he cares that much about the money (I know him slightly and rate him) - he has more than enough - sonit must be something else.
That's my reading. I think this is not about the money but something else. I know him quite well and rate him too.
What I find puzzling is why this has been allowed to come out in public. Not least because Andrea has been very close indeed to the Botin family since Merrills days- and not just on a work level. A statement that the appointment was not going ahead because of personal reasons would have sufficed.
Unless he intentionally doesn't want the reason to be personal reasons (for say personal reasons)...
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
That's remarkable given that JRM studied Modern History at Oxford - I await TSE's comment on the quality of that university's History Department.
I think 'Modern' merely distinguishes it from 'Ancient'.
From Mogg's POV, post 1815 probably counts as Contemporary.
Yeah, it is pretty bad, but unfortunately that's where we are at the extreme edges of the debate. For example, treason accusations from one band of maniacs, lauding the demise of pensioners from the other.
I'm not sure if it's a case of society getting coarser and more polarised, or of anti-social media pouring kerosene on the fire. Most likely one feeding off the other.
It's looking more and more like the polarisation is the young despising the old (believing them rightly or wrongly having thrown away their (the young's) future and squandered resources on themselves) and the old dismissing the young as being immature and irrelevant.
I know those drivers have always existed, but they seem far, far stronger today than ever before. If Brexit turns out to be even a quarter as badly damaging as has been feared, the attitudes will solidify into concrete: the young will regard it as vindication of their belief and won't forgive; the old will regard it as having been the right but difficult choice, damaged by a stab-in-the-back from [insert here].
And given that both "sides" had plenty who went in the other direction and would be unfairly tarnished whatever happens, resentment would only ever spread wider.
how are the young planning to stay ypung ? Im afraid life only goes in one direction and age shapes your views as you go.
There are cohort opinions and age opinions. Please read "Millennials and the following generation" for "the young", and "Baby boomers and the generation before" for "the old." After all, the Baby-boomers-and-older will have ensured that the Millennials-and-younger will certainly not have similar experiences and options to themselves.
Once people have decided on a scapegoat, it's hard for their opinions to change.
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.
I'd recommend Bernard Cornwell's account of the Battle of Waterloo. I've never read anything that explains it all so clearly.
Unlike a lot of British authors, he doesn't underrate Napoleon. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Napoleon won three out of the four battles of the campaign, and only lost the last by a hairs-breadth. His mistakes (and Wellington's and Blucher's) were down to the lack of information caused by the primitive communications of the time.
In a little quirk of fate, that battle was quite important to my family.
An officer in the Black Watch suffered an injury in a delicate area, during the battle. This unfortunately rendered him infertile, so he doted on a small son of one of his crofters, funding his education, including Aberdeen University. He treated him like an adopted son. That boy became a Presbyterian Minister and missionary, later an author, travelling the world on his missions. The boy was the first educated boy in the family, and became head of a middle class dynasty of the manse. He was my great-grandfather.
If that shrapnel had been 12 inches higher it would have killed him, 12 inches lower, he would most likely have had his own family. How randomly our lives are sometimes determined!
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.
I'd recommend Bernard Cornwell's account of the Battle of Waterloo. I've never read anything that explains it all so clearly.
Unlike a lot of British authors, he doesn't underrate Napoleon. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Napoleon won three out of the four battles of the campaign, and only lost the last by a hairs-breadth. His mistakes (and Wellington's and Blucher's) were down to the lack of information caused by the primitive communications of the time.
In a little quirk of fate, that battle was quite important to my family.
An officer in the Black Watch suffered an injury in a delicate area, during the battle. This unfortunately rendered him infertile, so he doted on a small son of one of his crofters, funding his education, including Aberdeen University. He treated him like an adopted son. That boy became a Presbyterian Minister and missionary, later an author, travelling the world on his missions. The boy was the first educated boy in the family, and became head of a middle class dynasty of the manse. He was my great-grandfather.
If that shrapnel had been 12 inches higher it would have killed him, 12 inches lower, he would most likely have had his own family. How randomly our lives are sometimes determined!
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I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/425772-georgia-senator-concerned-shutdown-could-affect-super-bowl
Trump's ratings have taken a hit over the last month. These sort of unintended consequences are not going to help him.
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
Take today Corbyn is playing politics with the no deal stipulation. He knows that May can’t formally do this without splitting her own party asunder. As a political trap it is inept but particularly when you see the types of people he has had dialogue with in the past in the name of consensus building.
Edit:
I was a Labour voter at eighteen, moved to the LDs in my forties, and now I'm homeless. I was in favour of the Common market at twenty-five, and in my early sixties I finally saw sense.
While I understand misgivings around the complexity of a three-option/two question/AV vote, it seems to me the one least likely to rip the Tories apart. If those unwilling to countenance No Deal or Remain don't have the confidence that either of *two* alternatives could beat their least favoured option, perhaps their position isn't as strong as they thought. I guess the suspicion is the EU wouldn't extend A50 for that?
Although I think there's a decent argument for a confirmatory vote on the detail two years on, and a decent argument to exclude No Deal, I can see why those are politically dangerous.
In the end all older voters have done is vote for what they thought was the right thing after Cameron, the government and the UK Parliament gave them that opportunity.
The fact a lot (but by no means all) of them happened to vote leave and be on the winning side doesn't mean they should then be subjected to the kind of abuse Remainers like Polly Toynbee are subjecting them to.
And where does this end? Maybe the next referendum should stop anyone over the age of 70 or 75 from voting in it at all?
How about IQ tests at polling stations and people who fail aren't allowed to vote?
And while we're at it the Tories could ban people on benefits from voting too...
As for Oxford, I have met lots of Oxbridge graduates in the City, have interviewed a fair number of them and have rarely been particularly impressed with any of them. Most people in public life have little understanding of what has happened in the last 10 years let along any proper history, whatever their degree might say.
https://deatherendum.co.uk/
Lovely, isn't it? Well quite. In their desperation to achieve a Remain outcome, the Liberal Democrats are playing into Corbyn's hands. He wants to avoid as much responsibility for the outcome of Brexit as possible - and he certainly doesn't want to be anywhere near power before it is resolved - and now he and all the rest of his party have a fresh opportunity to drag up the legacy of the Coalition and accuse the Lib Dems of willingly propping up the Tories again.
The optics of refusing to no confidence a Conservative Government are very difficult for all smaller parties in the Commons (other, obviously, than the DUP, whose circumstances are exceptional.) It invites the immediate accusation from Labour that they're helping to keep Theresa May in office, and are therefore condoning and facilitating Tory policy.
The fact that the EU won’t discuss trade in a meaningful manner until they have us trapped in the Withdrawal Act from which we can’t escape without being trapped into signing up to all EU laws says a lot about the EU and why we are right to leave.
The attitude of the EU and the woeful shortcomings of our MPs, on both sides of the debate, make it a seemingly binary choice - no deal or Remain. I am not sure most people would choose to Leave on that basis.
Getting the club to change would be the easiest deal in history.
They need us more than we need them...
I know of a few people who have changed their minds and would now vote Remain. I don't think it is at all a slam dunk that Leave would still win were there to be another referendum.
Following on from the sudden stratospheric warming that I previously mentioned, the Met Office is now forecasting that the weather may turn very cold by the end of January. There might even be snow at Westminster.
Might this accentuate the feeling of impending crisis? Could it concentrate minds? Might it leave some MPs stranded in their constituencies?
MPs are, after all, only human* and they feel the cold just like the rest of us.
* Except for those representing the lizard-people who, being cold-blooded, feel the cold even more!
That said, I have doubts that May is flexible enough (either on her own account or because she fears her own right wing) to move far enough to win their support either.
What’s more intriguing is why Andrea let it happen. I don’t think he cares that much about the money (I know him slightly and rate him) - he has more than enough - sonit must be something else.
Has happy concord broken out?
Chance of Remaining without a re-run = negligible.
Chance of Remaining with a re-run = more than negligible.
(a) a serious attempt to reach some sort of compromise that most of us can at least learn not to hate, or
(b) having a couple of useless meetings, at the end of which everyone emerges and says everyone else isn't listening, which means I'm going to stick to my position (which is obviously 100% right and has been all along, so there)
My late father paid NI from 1966 to 2013 and claimed just two years of it back before he died so HMG didn't do so bad out of it...
The mind boggles:
"u ok m8?"
"atm. wya?"
"chillin. any prog?"
"n. corbz- lol!"
"yeah. lmao. ttyl"
I'm not sure if it's a case of society getting coarser and more polarised, or of anti-social media pouring kerosene on the fire. Most likely one feeding off the other.
What I find puzzling is why this has been allowed to come out in public. Not least because Andrea has been very close indeed to the Botin family since Merrills days- and not just on a work level. A statement that the appointment was not going ahead because of personal reasons would have sufficed.
Unlike a lot of British authors, he doesn't underrate Napoleon. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Napoleon won three out of the four battles of the campaign, and only lost the last by a hairs-breadth. His mistakes (and Wellington's and Blucher's) were down to the lack of information caused by the primitive communications of the time.
So in terms of an indefinite remain, it doesn’t matter that remain may well lose again, it’s still worth the risk for people’s vote supporters.
I can only see Norway or May’s deal VS remain making it onto a ballot paper. Hard to see enough MPs wanting to put No Deal on - neither the government nor most backbencher.
I’m increasingly wondering if we will simply end up in a never ending Transition period or A50 Extension peior, a bit like the reverse of Turkey’s 50 years of almost being an EU member.
*Odd because it's a hugely divisive issue; at the same time understandable because what alternatives are on offer? And "this is more important".
^Clearly not sorted. Shorthand for "working out WTF we're doing on Mar 29"
Like Foxy I admire this pinnacle of inter European cooperation ruined only by the French being on the other side :-)
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1085903368093077504
Very well worth reading.
Excoriating and utterly true.
I love this line - "the British political class has offered to the world an astounding spectacle of mendacious, intellectually limited hustlers."
I have this dream that we crash out, a few weeks (months?) of disruption and running around shouting 'the sky is falling in', GDP reduces by 5% or so, then amidst the wreckage and WTO tariffs we realise that our current political system isn't fit for purpose. Cross-party alliance stands on an 'upgrade' ticket where we move to a devolved federal governance model (regional parliaments) PR, and moving all the politicians out of the HoC for a symbolic and long-overdue upgrade. Then we'll see what kind of country emerges, what the EU looks like once we're gone - and whether there's any appetite to begin talks to rejoin.
It ain't gonna happen of course. But one can dream...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/17/france-triggers-50m-contingency-plan-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit
When they insist we're just not good enough
Well we know better
Just look him in his eyes and say
We're gonna do it anyway
We're gonna do it anyway
I know those drivers have always existed, but they seem far, far stronger today than ever before. If Brexit turns out to be even a quarter as badly damaging as has been feared, the attitudes will solidify into concrete: the young will regard it as vindication of their belief and won't forgive; the old will regard it as having been the right but difficult choice, damaged by a stab-in-the-back from [insert here].
And given that both "sides" had plenty who went in the other direction and would be unfairly tarnished whatever happens, resentment would only ever spread wider.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/17/philip-hammond-faces-cabinet-backlash-telling-business-chiefs/
It's actually quite clever. It deducts and adds to each demographic age group, for both leavers and remainers, based on the 2016 vote split.
From Mogg's POV, post 1815 probably counts as Contemporary.
Please read "Millennials and the following generation" for "the young", and "Baby boomers and the generation before" for "the old."
After all, the Baby-boomers-and-older will have ensured that the Millennials-and-younger will certainly not have similar experiences and options to themselves.
Once people have decided on a scapegoat, it's hard for their opinions to change.
(As Generation X, I'm caught in the middle here)
An officer in the Black Watch suffered an injury in a delicate area, during the battle. This unfortunately rendered him infertile, so he doted on a small son of one of his crofters, funding his education, including Aberdeen University. He treated him like an adopted son. That boy became a Presbyterian Minister and missionary, later an author, travelling the world on his missions. The boy was the first educated boy in the family, and became head of a middle class dynasty of the manse. He was my great-grandfather.
If that shrapnel had been 12 inches higher it would have killed him, 12 inches lower, he would most likely have had his own family. How randomly our lives are sometimes determined!
I toast his memory every Burns Night.
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