Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Tory Brexit crisis continues Corbyn’s “Best PM” ratings

135678

Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited January 2019

    I feel relatively sure - 65% - that we will Brexit shortly. Maybe not on time, but shortly thereafter.

    There are two components of the “Deal” on the table; the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration.

    A decent chunk of Tory rebels and the DUP - around 100 votes - are objecting to the backstop, ie the Withdrawal Agreement, with which it is basically synonymous. As we have discussed, at this stage there’s simply no other way to Leave. These votes can therefore be ignored in the sense they cannot an will not be won around.

    The rest of Parliament are really then just bickering about the Political Declaration and/or, whether to put it back to the People.

    I suspect, sadly, that a People’s Vote doesn’t quite have the votes.

    So, in the end, this is about the PD.
    Will it be single market only, customs union only, or single and customs union both? I’m not sure which, but I do feel it’s more likely than not that one of these can be agreed even if it is grudgingly and under duress.

    I doubt Corbyn will vote for a Deal. But like the ERGers he will ignored as the Yvette Cooper bloc give May the votes she needs to pass.

    The problem is that no conceivable political declaration has public support that gets out of the teens. Norway Plus has abysmal support.

    image
    That’s the public, though. This is about the House.
    Why are people still yammering on about Norway+ and such rubbish? Those options are fairy-dust and unicorns. They are not on offer.

    Wake up FFS!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    SunnyJim said:

    Cyclefree said:


    May is being pretty duplicitous herself in wittering about altering the WA when she knows damn well that it cannot be altered in any way which would be acceptable to her party, the DUP and the EU. She would be more honest if she now said that the only way to exit is via No Deal and that's it.

    Your conclusion is flawed in as much that we could have a WA agreed tomorrow which, whilst it doesn't achieve the impossible of being acceptable to every strand of opinion, does in a large part honour the referendum.

    Remainers on the other hand are playing games with the process with their ludicrously transparent 'offers' of compromises which are only staging posts to their preferred destination of the UK remaining in the EU.

    Grieve was actually blatant about this in an interview a couple of days ago. He was asked if there was any deal he would support and after saying a Norway type deal he then said it was so close to remaining that he still wouldn't vote for it as we may as well remain in that scenario.


    We could have the WA tomorrow, apart from the very minor fact that Parliament voted against it by a majority of 230.

    Grieve is right about a Norway-type deal. There is very little point leaving the EU, then following all the rules of the EU without any input into them. You have all the downsides of being in the EU without any of the upsides. The closer the relationship the less control you have. The less close the relationship the more theoretical control you have but also much more friction and cost and loss of trade.

    Brexiteers refuse to come to terms with this and refuse to be honest with voters about this, preferring to blame the EU for not giving Britain everything it wants.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Looks like gilets jaunes round 10 is on for this Saturday

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/17/01016-20190117ARTFIG00148-les-gilets-jaunes-se-preparent-a-l-acte-x-malgre-le-lancement-du-grand-debat.php

    macron on the otrher hand has had some good news in that his popularity has recovered from Decembers low in yesterdays poll
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    edited January 2019

    I feel relatively sure - 65% - that we will Brexit shortly. Maybe not on time, but shortly thereafter.

    There are two components of the “Deal” on the table; the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration.

    A decent chunk of Tory rebels and the DUP - around 100 votes - are objecting to the backstop, ie the Withdrawal Agreement, with which it is basically synonymous. As we have discussed, at this stage there’s simply no other way to Leave. These votes can therefore be ignored in the sense they cannot an will not be won around.

    The rest of Parliament are really then just bickering about the Political Declaration and/or, whether to put it back to the People.

    I suspect, sadly, that a People’s Vote doesn’t quite have the votes.

    So, in the end, this is about the PD.
    Will it be single market only, customs union only, or single and customs union both? I’m not sure which, but I do feel it’s more likely than not that one of these can be agreed even if it is grudgingly and under duress.

    I doubt Corbyn will vote for a Deal. But like the ERGers he will ignored as the Yvette Cooper bloc give May the votes she needs to pass.

    The problem is that no conceivable political declaration has public support that gets out of the teens. Norway Plus has abysmal support.

    image
    Tell that 8% there'll be a written test follow-up on what Norway Plus means..... then watch it drop below 1%!
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106



    There are 63% of us that did not vote Leave and if you, or Mrs May, thinks they will be forgiving if she drives us over the cliff, then you may get a rude awakening.

    And what percentage did not vote to Remain?

    And what percentage of those who voted in the last GE supported parties that had a commitment to honouring the referendum in their manifesto?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Referendum:

    Norway 🇳🇴 vs !Oklahoma!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgSw5CFfzeM
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Brexiteers refuse to come to terms with this and refuse to be honest with voters about this, preferring to blame the EU for not giving Britain everything it wants.

    Yes, but the Brexiteers are correct - the EU is not giving Britain everything it wants. What the Brexiteers fail to grasp is that NO country or trading is liable to give Britain what it wants.

    We are a small country and we are throwing away our influence. That is the lesson of Brexit.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I know. I've been there. :)

    I'm sure your friend is a nice bloke doing a good job, etc but while he's having his beer and discussing cake with you, there will be others working bloody hard and late for him.

    And Germans - banks/regulators - are proof that the coming in/doing your job/going home on time can be an utter disaster if it means that they don't do what they ought to be doing.
    Mrs C Ive been through as many torrid times as you and in several jurisdictions, Hanging about to pretend your contributing is just a nonsense, The best thing sensior management can do in a crisis is agree a prgramme and give the people who do the work the space to do it.
    Endless reporting and micromanagment achieve little except to make control freaks feel good.
    Agree with that. Bu.
    the only thing that really matters is when are you going to run out of cash and can you get some more ?

    everything else is problem fixing and blame apportionment. If you cant stabilise cash youve had it,
    True.

    Mind you problem fixing is pretty important. As is blame apportionment when you have a criminal trial to prepare for.

    Or when you've been persuaded to put more cash in and find out some months later that the black hole is even bigger than you were told....
    Blame apportionment is rarely time critical except in the very early days when youre clearing out the management team. Problem fixing is more complex since quite often the management dont know what the problem is either. keeping the show on he road is as much luck as judgement.
    Dealing with the police and the criminal courts is, I can assure you, very time critical indeed. One of the toughest times I had was when all the senior managers needed to keep the show on the road, stabilise the cash etc were demanded by the courts and the police to be elsewhere giving lengthy statements and the rest of it. The police did not give a toss about company stabilisation. The Board were desperate to have their men back at base. So guess who had to mediate between the two.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    tpfkar said:

    dixiedean said:

    So. Having spectacularly failed to persuade the Conservative Party of the merits of the deal, Plan B appears to be to use those same powers of charm, to convert the Opposition.
    Or is it something else?

    Nope. That's it. Certainly looks that way. She is as stubborn as an intergalactic mule.
    If I was as damaged as she was, I think I'd remove myself from the action. Appoint someone respected across the house (I'm thinking someone like Rory Stewart, Rob Halfon, Mark Field) to act as my ambassador, overseeing all the opposition engagement, and reporting back on where the avenues of agreement are.

    Theresa May is simply part of the problem and she needs to take a step back now.
    You think Rory's experience in Afghanistan and Iraq is adequate for dealing with warring Labour tribes?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    SunnyJim said:



    There are 63% of us that did not vote Leave and if you, or Mrs May, thinks they will be forgiving if she drives us over the cliff, then you may get a rude awakening.

    And what percentage did not vote to Remain?

    And what percentage of those who voted in the last GE supported parties that had a commitment to honouring the referendum in their manifesto?
    No; the point is that only 37% voted for a change.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    SunnyJim said:



    There are 63% of us that did not vote Leave and if you, or Mrs May, thinks they will be forgiving if she drives us over the cliff, then you may get a rude awakening.

    And what percentage did not vote to Remain?

    And what percentage of those who voted in the last GE supported parties that had a commitment to honouring the referendum in their manifesto?
    Yeah, yeah yeah. You are logic chopping. It will not save you post-Brexit. It is your problem, not mine.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:
    No wonder Farage is warming to the idea. Another year of cashing it in from the Brussels he hates.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384

    So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.

    I do hope Boles wins through in the end.

    You take No Deal off the table by agreeing a Deal. You can't do it in advance of a Deal.
    Of course you can. Deal or Remain.
    Obviously, a government can revoke A50, which takes both a Deal, and No Deal off the table. But, you first need a change of government.
    I think a commitment to revoke or extend A50 if a deal cannot be reached by 29th March would be enough to satisfy the opposition parties.
    Bear in mind that many Conservative activists and members are fanatically pro-Brexit. That is the audience Mrs May is playing to and saving the Tory Party is far more important than the UK.

    The Tories are just as madly tribal as Labour, they are just less obvious about it.
    The danger for the headbangers is that Mrs May's career is finished, and that is mainly down to them. She has little more to lose, and might well show her famous stubborn streak and just do what she thinks is in the best interest of the country, even if it pisses off the more stupid party faithful. My guess is that most will swallow a Norway type deal if it actually gets us out of formal membership.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384

    Benn and Cooper's position certainly bears a passing resemblance to Corbyn's.
    It certainly does.
    The only difference I guess is they met the government , to be told in person , nothing has changed.
    In reality the government could have sent them an e mail , it would have been quicker.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Excellent news for once - the public is finally seeing through Magic Grandpa, and Vince Cable has made an intervention that has real political significance. Now Corbyn has to either stick to his position (in which case he can never get an early election) or do a 180 to campaign for a second referendum and Remain (in which case he can never win one, as his Old Labour base stays home).

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    I feel relatively sure - 65% - that we will Brexit shortly. Maybe not on time, but shortly thereafter.

    There are two components of the “Deal” on the table; the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration.

    A decent chunk of Tory rebels and the DUP - around 100 votes - are objecting to the backstop, ie the Withdrawal Agreement, with which it is basically synonymous. As we have discussed, at this stage there’s simply no other way to Leave. These votes can therefore be ignored in the sense they cannot an will not be won around.

    The rest of Parliament are really then just bickering about the Political Declaration and/or, whether to put it back to the People.

    I suspect, sadly, that a People’s Vote doesn’t quite have the votes.

    So, in the end, this is about the PD.
    Will it be single market only, customs union only, or single and customs union both? I’m not sure which, but I do feel it’s more likely than not that one of these can be agreed even if it is grudgingly and under duress.

    I doubt Corbyn will vote for a Deal. But like the ERGers he will ignored as the Yvette Cooper bloc give May the votes she needs to pass.

    The problem is that no conceivable political declaration has public support that gets out of the teens. Norway Plus has abysmal support.

    image
    That’s the public, though. This is about the House.
    Why are people still yammering on about Norway+ and such rubbish? Those options are fairy-dust and unicorns. They are not on offer.

    Wake up FFS!
    You know when you have a tax return to do or that quarter's VAT. You'd really rather not. You keep putting it off. There's still time, you think. Mysteriously, most days you find yourself cleaning the skirtings or rearranging the attic or reorganising the drawers in the spare room or deciding to put in photo albums all those old photos in a box under the bed. Anything but what you know you have to do.

    That's what our MPs are up to now, ironing their socks and reorganising their pants drawers. :)
  • SunnyJim said:

    Cyclefree said:


    May is being pretty duplicitous herself in wittering about altering the WA when she knows damn well that it cannot be altered in any way which would be acceptable to her party, the DUP and the EU. She would be more honest if she now said that the only way to exit is via No Deal and that's it.

    Your conclusion is flawed in as much that we could have a WA agreed tomorrow which, whilst it doesn't achieve the impossible of being acceptable to every strand of opinion, does in a large part honour the referendum.

    Remainers on the other hand are playing games with the process with their ludicrously transparent 'offers' of compromises which are only staging posts to their preferred destination of the UK remaining in the EU.

    Grieve was actually blatant about this in an interview a couple of days ago. He was asked if there was any deal he would support and after saying a Norway type deal he then said it was so close to remaining that he still wouldn't vote for it as we may as well remain in that scenario.


    Most Remainers still don't like a Norway type deal, but recognise it is just a slightly less stupid version of the madness called Brexit. It is still pointless, and we end up having to take rules that we don't participate in, but if it is what is required to stop the children having a tantrum, then so be it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Cyclefree said:

    Brexiteers refuse to come to terms with this and refuse to be honest with voters about this, preferring to blame the EU for not giving Britain everything it wants.

    Yes, but the Brexiteers are correct - the EU is not giving Britain everything it wants. What the Brexiteers fail to grasp is that NO country or trading is liable to give Britain what it wants.

    We are a small country and we are throwing away our influence. That is the lesson of Brexit.
    Isn't the lesson that we have been entangled politically into an enterprise over the last 40 years by a series of government without ever explicitly giving our permission - despite other European countries giving their citizens a democratic referendum to give that permission ?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    blueblue said:

    Excellent news for once - the public is finally seeing through Magic Grandpa, and Vince Cable has made an intervention that has real political significance. Now Corbyn has to either stick to his position (in which case he can never get an early election) or do a 180 to campaign for a second referendum and Remain (in which case he can never win one, as his Old Labour base stays home).

    I agree that at last Cable has made a significant move.
  • blueblue said:

    Excellent news for once - the public is finally seeing through Magic Grandpa, and Vince Cable has made an intervention that has real political significance. Now Corbyn has to either stick to his position (in which case he can never get an early election) or do a 180 to campaign for a second referendum and Remain (in which case he can never win one, as his Old Labour base stays home).

    Still amazes me that there are 20% of people who think he deserves "best PM" status.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    In an end-of-days moment, I agree with @montie:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1085944707061108736
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Yeah, yeah yeah. You are logic chopping. It will not save you post-Brexit. It is your problem, not mine.

    I don't think Brexit is going to be positive economically and i'd prefer to remain from a personal financial and lifestyle perspective.

    However, the downsides of the above pale when set against the long-term impacts of the result of the largest democratic exercise in UK history being subverted.

    The short-sighted stupidity of many remainers is astounding.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So what ideas did Benn and Cooper bring to the PM that would allow a bill to pass other than "peepils vote" ?

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:


    Why are people still yammering on about Norway+ and such rubbish? Those options are fairy-dust and unicorns. They are not on offer.

    Wake up FFS!

    You know when you have a tax return to do or that quarter's VAT. You'd really rather not. You keep putting it off. There's still time, you think. Mysteriously, most days you find yourself cleaning the skirtings or rearranging the attic or reorganising the drawers in the spare room or deciding to put in photo albums all those old photos in a box under the bed. Anything but what you know you have to do.

    That's what our MPs are up to now, ironing their socks and reorganising their pants drawers. :)
    Personally speaking, I always try and get my disliked jobs out of the way as quick as possible then I no longer have to face them coming down the track at me.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited January 2019

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Yet the ERG are "loons" for wanting to ditch Mrs May ?

    Her failure on negotiation approach was daft. Her mistake was to make no hard border a red line.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    SunnyJim said:


    Yeah, yeah yeah. You are logic chopping. It will not save you post-Brexit. It is your problem, not mine.

    I don't think Brexit is going to be positive economically and i'd prefer to remain from a personal financial and lifestyle perspective.

    However, the downsides of the above pale when set against the long-term impacts of the result of the largest democratic exercise in UK history being subverted.

    The short-sighted stupidity of many remainers is astounding.
    Would you feel a bit better about it if the referendum that ‘subverted’ it rendered it the second largest democratic exercise in U.K. history?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Chuka Umunna socking it to Corbyn. Also Stephen Kinnock meeting the PM and her colleagues

    This is becoming to look like a rebellion

    Talking to ministers, then coming out afterwards to parrot the line about No Deal and tables.

    Nothing has changed - part 6,487 in a continuing series.

    (N.B. This isn't me taking sides with the Tories: I'm 99% certain at this stage that the PM has no intention of making any significant change to her position at all, so this whole process is worthless - she's just using it to run the clock down a bit more)
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    TGOHF said:

    So what ideas did Benn and Cooper bring to the PM that would allow a bill to pass other than "peepils vote" ?


    I’d guess they mentioned a customs union as well.
  • lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    Absolutely. Medical companies in particular are highly international and will want to be in a jurisdiction where the CE mark rules are drawn up, and vital supply chains are not interupted. The brain drain has already started. The EU27 will be giving enhanced incentives to draw companies away from the UK. We'll show them 'ey? They need us more than we need them! It would be funny if it were not so mind blowingly stupid
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That does rather overlook the fact that while this is undoubtedly an epic failure of British diplomacy, it is also an epic failure of EU diplomacy.

    They have a mess to clear up too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Point of order: “...we wouldn’t have voted to leave the EU.” Whether we leave or not is still very much an open question.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,757

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    In order to do that. she to break completely with her party, taking a few dozen of her MPs into a Coalition with the other parties.

    Odds on that, maybe 1000-1
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    So what ideas did Benn and Cooper bring to the PM that would allow a bill to pass other than "peepils vote" ?


    I’d guess they mentioned a customs union as well.
    Would being in the customs union pass the house ?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    That’s not really true. It can be done by promising to revoke A50 on 28 March if no deal is reached and no extension has been granted.

    Given that the no. 10 line has pivoted towards threatening Brexity types who don’t support the deal with ‘no brexit’ it would just be a formal statement that the threat is real.
  • Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    Or accept the deal
  • TGOHF said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brexiteers refuse to come to terms with this and refuse to be honest with voters about this, preferring to blame the EU for not giving Britain everything it wants.

    Yes, but the Brexiteers are correct - the EU is not giving Britain everything it wants. What the Brexiteers fail to grasp is that NO country or trading is liable to give Britain what it wants.

    We are a small country and we are throwing away our influence. That is the lesson of Brexit.
    Isn't the lesson that we have been entangled politically into an enterprise over the last 40 years by a series of government without ever explicitly giving our permission - despite other European countries giving their citizens a democratic referendum to give that permission ?

    Youare wadting your time with these Remain fanatics. They have absolutely no interest in democracy or anything else as long as they get to stay in their precious union. The really are gollums seduced by the false enticements of their preciouses.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    TGOHF said:

    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    So what ideas did Benn and Cooper bring to the PM that would allow a bill to pass other than "peepils vote" ?


    I’d guess they mentioned a customs union as well.
    Would being in the customs union pass the house ?
    Probably, with some other more minor concessions. Certainly makes it much easier to transfer the blame for no deal to Labour if they don’t support it.
  • Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    Or accept the deal
    Oh yes but that is not within her ability to effect. It depends on all those other self serving idiots in Parliament.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    In an end-of-days moment, I agree with @montie:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1085944707061108736

    Ah, that referendum timetable? A year is clearly a load of nonsense. Most of the time is earmarked for passage of legislation for starters which, with Government backing and majority support in the Commons, could be pushed through very quickly. The notion that it might get bogged down in Parliamentary ping-pong with the (strongly Remain) House of Lords isn't credible.

    My personal opinion is that a second referendum is a bad idea, but if Parliament wills it I'm sure it could be done much more rapidly than that.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Polruan said:


    Would you feel a bit better about it if the referendum that ‘subverted’ it rendered it the second largest democratic exercise in U.K. history?

    Honouring the referendum and exiting the EU should be the starting point.

    Then those political parties who want to rejoin can build a case to the electorate and present it for judgement at subsequent GE's.

    We can then in the future rejoin as full members if that party wins a majority.

    The UK could be right at the heart of the project, Euro, Schengen the lot. And there could be no legitimate complaints.

    Instead, remainers want us to be a worse version (by political necessity) of the, already recalcitrant, members we were before.

    It makes little sense for us and even less sense for the EU.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,757
    Polruan said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    That’s not really true. It can be done by promising to revoke A50 on 28 March if no deal is reached and no extension has been granted.

    Given that the no. 10 line has pivoted towards threatening Brexity types who don’t support the deal with ‘no brexit’ it would just be a formal statement that the threat is real.
    In which case, there's no purpose to any negotiation, since you have already given your opponents what they want.

    It would like entering negotiations for the sale of my house, having already given a guarantee that if we could not agree a price, I'd sell it to them for price which they wanted anyway.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    So what ideas did Benn and Cooper bring to the PM that would allow a bill to pass other than "peepils vote" ?


    I’d guess they mentioned a customs union as well.
    Would being in the customs union pass the house ?
    Probably, with some other more minor concessions. Certainly makes it much easier to transfer the blame for no deal to Labour if they don’t support it.
    Question would be would it pass via Labour splitters or by converting Corbyn and him giving official Labour approval ?

    I'd suggest the latter is very unlikely.

  • Polruan said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    That’s not really true. It can be done by promising to revoke A50 on 28 March if no deal is reached and no extension has been granted.

    Given that the no. 10 line has pivoted towards threatening Brexity types who don’t support the deal with ‘no brexit’ it would just be a formal statement that the threat is real.
    No because revoking means staying. Exactly as I said. It removes the last reason for any MP to vote for her deal. And It would bring down her government.
  • TGOHF said:

    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    So what ideas did Benn and Cooper bring to the PM that would allow a bill to pass other than "peepils vote" ?


    I’d guess they mentioned a customs union as well.
    Would being in the customs union pass the house ?
    That and other options are the reason for all the discussions
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Sean_F said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    In order to do that. she to break completely with her party, taking a few dozen of her MPs into a Coalition with the other parties.

    Odds on that, maybe 1000-1
    No, more than that. She's made it clear that for her it's Party first, country second. She bangs on about her 'precious union' but it's evident that for her it's party first.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Point of order: “...we wouldn’t have voted to leave the EU.” Whether we leave or not is still very much an open question.
    legally we leave the EU on 29th March, currently there is nothing else in place, So the statement stands until something changes.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,920
    No local by-elections today - nor next week.
  • TGOHF said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brexiteers refuse to come to terms with this and refuse to be honest with voters about this, preferring to blame the EU for not giving Britain everything it wants.

    Yes, but the Brexiteers are correct - the EU is not giving Britain everything it wants. What the Brexiteers fail to grasp is that NO country or trading is liable to give Britain what it wants.

    We are a small country and we are throwing away our influence. That is the lesson of Brexit.
    Isn't the lesson that we have been entangled politically into an enterprise over the last 40 years by a series of government without ever explicitly giving our permission - despite other European countries giving their citizens a democratic referendum to give that permission ?

    Youare wadting your time with these Remain fanatics. They have absolutely no interest in democracy or anything else as long as they get to stay in their precious union. The really are gollums seduced by the false enticements of their preciouses.
    And as someone who I believe voted for UKIP, are you suggesting that had the vote gone the other way, you would have said, "oh I respect that and now I will reach out to my remainer friends and enemies and tell them they were right all along"? No of course not. Democracy is a transient thing and people change their minds, particularly when new information becomes available. To suggest that those of us that don't blindly accept this folly are undemocratic shows the limitation of your thinking, or are you are just being salty because you realise that people are beginning to wake up to how pointless it all is?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Sean_F said:

    Polruan said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    That’s not really true. It can be done by promising to revoke A50 on 28 March if no deal is reached and no extension has been granted.

    Given that the no. 10 line has pivoted towards threatening Brexity types who don’t support the deal with ‘no brexit’ it would just be a formal statement that the threat is real.
    In which case, there's no purpose to any negotiation, since you have already given your opponents what they want.

    It would like entering negotiations for the sale of my house, having already given a guarantee that if we could not agree a price, I'd sell it to them for price which they wanted anyway.
    Not sure that metaphor really works - unless you add in the assumption that you have a massive mortgage falling due on 29 March, no means of paying it, and no other buyers on the horizon.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Problem is, Brexit is all downside. If businesses have really good reasons to be in the UK they will stay, regardless of Brexit. They may be going anyway, in which case they won't be more likely to go because of Brexit. But at the margins, which is where a lot of these decisions are made, no-one will choose Britain because of Brexit, but they are highly likely to opt for the alternative because of it.
  • FF43 said:

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Problem is, Brexit is all downside. If businesses have really good reasons to be in the UK they will stay, regardless of Brexit. They may be going anyway, in which case they won't be more likely to go because of Brexit. But at the margins, which is where a lot of these decisions are made, no-one will choose Britain because of Brexit, but they are highly likely to opt for the alternative because of it.
    Well put. Business is a pragmatic barometer of the health of the nation
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    TGOHF said:

    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    So what ideas did Benn and Cooper bring to the PM that would allow a bill to pass other than "peepils vote" ?


    I’d guess they mentioned a customs union as well.
    Would being in the customs union pass the house ?
    Well. There would be an easy way to find out.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FF43 said:

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Problem is, Brexit is all downside. If businesses have really good reasons to be in the UK they will stay, regardless of Brexit. They may be going anyway, in which case they won't be more likely to go because of Brexit. But at the margins, which is where a lot of these decisions are made, no-one will choose Britain because of Brexit, but they are highly likely to opt for the alternative because of it.
    Faith-based Brexit doesn't allow such doubts. Brexit is good and therefore it will be good. It is not Allowed to have downsides, even trivial ones, never mind major ones.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Polruan said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    That’s not really true. It can be done by promising to revoke A50 on 28 March if no deal is reached and no extension has been granted.

    Given that the no. 10 line has pivoted towards threatening Brexity types who don’t support the deal with ‘no brexit’ it would just be a formal statement that the threat is real.
    Revoke article 50 in late March = decimation of Tories in local elections in May (assuming there are any members left to fight those elections). It ain't going to happen.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    Democracy is a transient thing and people change their minds, particularly when new information becomes available.

    So if we were to remain you would be happy with a 3rd referendum when the next major change to the EU's structure is proposed?




  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    TGOHF said:

    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    So what ideas did Benn and Cooper bring to the PM that would allow a bill to pass other than "peepils vote" ?


    I’d guess they mentioned a customs union as well.
    Would being in the customs union pass the house ?
    Probably, with some other more minor concessions. Certainly makes it much easier to transfer the blame for no deal to Labour if they don’t support it.
    Question would be would it pass via Labour splitters or by converting Corbyn and him giving official Labour approval ?

    I'd suggest the latter is very unlikely.

    I suspect the former is equally unlikely. Remainer Labour MPs won't accept the compromise, most Leaver Labour MPs have been told that the Deal isn't good enough...
  • FF43 said:

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Problem is, Brexit is all downside. If businesses have really good reasons to be in the UK they will stay, regardless of Brexit. They may be going anyway, in which case they won't be more likely to go because of Brexit. But at the margins, which is where a lot of these decisions are made, no-one will choose Britain because of Brexit, but they are highly likely to opt for the alternative because of it.
    Faith-based Brexit doesn't allow such doubts. Brexit is good and therefore it will be good. It is not Allowed to have downsides, even trivial ones, never mind major ones.
    It will be great. And we will get the easiest deal in history
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Sean_F said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    In order to do that. she to break completely with her party, taking a few dozen of her MPs into a Coalition with the other parties.

    Odds on that, maybe 1000-1
    No, more than that. She's made it clear that for her it's Party first, country second. She bangs on about her 'precious union' but it's evident that for her it's party first.
    I think that’s harsh. It’s definitely party second.

    Problem is, it’s ‘own job’ first.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    The Guardian website has a letter from May to Corbyn in which she says, inter alia, that she does not believe that the EU would agree to extend our membership just to allow further debate on Brexit in the UK.

    I thought it was strongly suggested, at the very least, that they would!
  • TGOHF said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brexiteers refuse to come to terms with this and refuse to be honest with voters about this, preferring to blame the EU for not giving Britain everything it wants.

    Yes, but the Brexiteers are correct - the EU is not giving Britain everything it wants. What the Brexiteers fail to grasp is that NO country or trading is liable to give Britain what it wants.

    We are a small country and we are throwing away our influence. That is the lesson of Brexit.
    Isn't the lesson that we have been entangled politically into an enterprise over the last 40 years by a series of government without ever explicitly giving our permission - despite other European countries giving their citizens a democratic referendum to give that permission ?

    Youare wadting your time with these Remain fanatics. They have absolutely no interest in democracy or anything else as long as they get to stay in their precious union. The really are gollums seduced by the false enticements of their preciouses.
    And as someone who I believe voted for UKIP, are you suggesting that had the vote gone the other way, you would have said, "oh I respect that and now I will reach out to my remainer friends and enemies and tell them they were right all along"? No of course not. Democracy is a transient thing and people change their minds, particularly when new information becomes available. To suggest that those of us that don't blindly accept this folly are undemocratic shows the limitation of your thinking, or are you are just being salty because you realise that people are beginning to wake up to how pointless it all is?
    It is pointless and very much worse than now but the Country voted leave and leave it should.

    I am still content with TM deal but failing that remain as Norway is not worth it
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    In an end-of-days moment, I agree with @montie:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1085944707061108736

    Ah, that referendum timetable? A year is clearly a load of nonsense. Most of the time is earmarked for passage of legislation for starters which, with Government backing and majority support in the Commons, could be pushed through very quickly. The notion that it might get bogged down in Parliamentary ping-pong with the (strongly Remain) House of Lords isn't credible.

    My personal opinion is that a second referendum is a bad idea, but if Parliament wills it I'm sure it could be done much more rapidly than that.
    It says 7 months because it will take a long time to get it through the Commons and the Lords. The only thing that can be reduced is that the question can be roadtested at the same time and given that a simple question requires 12 weeks to test it may actually take 7 months to roadtest this quesiton...
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Polruan said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    That’s not really true. It can be done by promising to revoke A50 on 28 March if no deal is reached and no extension has been granted.

    Given that the no. 10 line has pivoted towards threatening Brexity types who don’t support the deal with ‘no brexit’ it would just be a formal statement that the threat is real.
    No because revoking means staying. Exactly as I said. It removes the last reason for any MP to vote for her deal. And It would bring down her government.
    I’m not sure I understand the logic. Threatening to revoke isn’t the same as ending up revoking. Are you suggesting that no MPs would vote for her deal because it’s in any way good for the country, and that the right response to that is to make it a binary choice between that and something even worse?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    eek said:

    In an end-of-days moment, I agree with @montie:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1085944707061108736

    Ah, that referendum timetable? A year is clearly a load of nonsense. Most of the time is earmarked for passage of legislation for starters which, with Government backing and majority support in the Commons, could be pushed through very quickly. The notion that it might get bogged down in Parliamentary ping-pong with the (strongly Remain) House of Lords isn't credible.

    My personal opinion is that a second referendum is a bad idea, but if Parliament wills it I'm sure it could be done much more rapidly than that.
    It says 7 months because it will take a long time to get it through the Commons and the Lords. The only thing that can be reduced is that the question can be roadtested at the same time and given that a simple question requires 12 weeks to test it may actually take 7 months to roadtest this quesiton...
    Why on earth does it need to take 7 months to pass through Parliament?!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    FF43 said:

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Problem is, Brexit is all downside. If businesses have really good reasons to be in the UK they will stay, regardless of Brexit. They may be going anyway, in which case they won't be more likely to go because of Brexit. But at the margins, which is where a lot of these decisions are made, no-one will choose Britain because of Brexit, but they are highly likely to opt for the alternative because of it.
    You seem to think that a government should just sit there and do nothing. The country has a massive balance of payments deficit because it has let so much of its business go, and often needlessly. Some simple policies to reshore would make a lot of sense.

  • SunnyJim said:

    Democracy is a transient thing and people change their minds, particularly when new information becomes available.

    So if we were to remain you would be happy with a 3rd referendum when the next major change to the EU's structure is proposed?




    I am not a believer in referenda, and I do not consider them "democratic", unless they have the checks and balances as used in Switzerland. We have a parliamentary democracy that is based upon a delegation of powers to the legislature through our MPs. It has its limitations and it needs a lot of reform (which should be the priority), but it works. Putting binary questions to an electorate that does not have the time or training to properly consider the detail, particularly when we have no history of such a system of decision making is folly in the extreme.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,757

    Sean_F said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    In order to do that. she to break completely with her party, taking a few dozen of her MPs into a Coalition with the other parties.

    Odds on that, maybe 1000-1
    No, more than that. She's made it clear that for her it's Party first, country second. She bangs on about her 'precious union' but it's evident that for her it's party first.
    Politics is the art of the possible. Everyone dreams of an opposing party leader who will tell their supporters where to go, ignoring the fact that those supporters would promptly tell that leader where to go.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    eek said:

    In an end-of-days moment, I agree with @montie:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1085944707061108736

    Ah, that referendum timetable? A year is clearly a load of nonsense. Most of the time is earmarked for passage of legislation for starters which, with Government backing and majority support in the Commons, could be pushed through very quickly. The notion that it might get bogged down in Parliamentary ping-pong with the (strongly Remain) House of Lords isn't credible.

    My personal opinion is that a second referendum is a bad idea, but if Parliament wills it I'm sure it could be done much more rapidly than that.
    It says 7 months because it will take a long time to get it through the Commons and the Lords. The only thing that can be reduced is that the question can be roadtested at the same time and given that a simple question requires 12 weeks to test it may actually take 7 months to roadtest this quesiton...
    Why on earth does it need to take 7 months to pass through Parliament?!
    Because May is PM? That would be lightning for her.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    FF43 said:

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Problem is, Brexit is all downside. If businesses have really good reasons to be in the UK they will stay, regardless of Brexit. They may be going anyway, in which case they won't be more likely to go because of Brexit. But at the margins, which is where a lot of these decisions are made, no-one will choose Britain because of Brexit, but they are highly likely to opt for the alternative because of it.
    You seem to think that a government should just sit there and do nothing. The country has a massive balance of payments deficit because it has let so much of its business go, and often needlessly. Some simple policies to reshore would make a lot of sense.
    There’s nothing simple about that kind of planned economy.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    I am not a believer in referenda, and I do not consider them "democratic"

    But you'll make an exception if it means a chance of over-turning Brexit?

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Forget the no deal blarney. It’s irrelevant virtue signalling. Also forget the noises from Number 10 that nothing has changed: one or more of May’s red lines will have to be crossed.

    May has 202 votes. She needs to find whatever variation on the Political Deal that will attract a net 115 votes, and there are 432 votes to win over.

    Assume that 100 of those are ERGy unreconcilable Tories, and another 100 are Corbyn ultras who will never vote for a May/Tory deal. That leaves 230 votes to play for so she needs just over half.

    My instincts say that:

    Norway adds 100 votes - not enough.
    Customs Union adds 120 votes but also loses 60 votes - not enough. Doesn’t work.
    People’s Vote adds 120 votes and also loses 50 - not enough.

    A combination of two would swing it though?
    Time to start the MP by MP analysis.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    In an end-of-days moment, I agree with @montie:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1085944707061108736

    Ah, that referendum timetable? A year is clearly a load of nonsense. Most of the time is earmarked for passage of legislation for starters which, with Government backing and majority support in the Commons, could be pushed through very quickly. The notion that it might get bogged down in Parliamentary ping-pong with the (strongly Remain) House of Lords isn't credible.

    My personal opinion is that a second referendum is a bad idea, but if Parliament wills it I'm sure it could be done much more rapidly than that.
    It says 7 months because it will take a long time to get it through the Commons and the Lords. The only thing that can be reduced is that the question can be roadtested at the same time and given that a simple question requires 12 weeks to test it may actually take 7 months to roadtest this quesiton...
    Why on earth does it need to take 7 months to pass through Parliament?!
    Because May is PM? That would be lightning for her.
    She should put Grieve in charge of it, he seems to understand how parliament works.
  • eek said:

    In an end-of-days moment, I agree with @montie:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1085944707061108736

    Ah, that referendum timetable? A year is clearly a load of nonsense. Most of the time is earmarked for passage of legislation for starters which, with Government backing and majority support in the Commons, could be pushed through very quickly. The notion that it might get bogged down in Parliamentary ping-pong with the (strongly Remain) House of Lords isn't credible.

    My personal opinion is that a second referendum is a bad idea, but if Parliament wills it I'm sure it could be done much more rapidly than that.
    It says 7 months because it will take a long time to get it through the Commons and the Lords. The only thing that can be reduced is that the question can be roadtested at the same time and given that a simple question requires 12 weeks to test it may actually take 7 months to roadtest this quesiton...
    Why on earth does it need to take 7 months to pass through Parliament?!
    Seems nonsense if there is a will to get on with it
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    FF43 said:

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Problem is, Brexit is all downside. If businesses have really good reasons to be in the UK they will stay, regardless of Brexit. They may be going anyway, in which case they won't be more likely to go because of Brexit. But at the margins, which is where a lot of these decisions are made, no-one will choose Britain because of Brexit, but they are highly likely to opt for the alternative because of it.
    Faith-based Brexit doesn't allow such doubts. Brexit is good and therefore it will be good. It is not Allowed to have downsides, even trivial ones, never mind major ones.
    Not at all. The remain pitch was based on telling people with nothing to loset that they would lose something, Its a vote for things might get better versus the certainty that they wont.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Forget the no deal blarney. It’s irrelevant virtue signalling. Also forget the noises from Number 10 that nothing has changed: one or more of May’s red lines will have to be crossed.

    May has 202 votes. She needs to find whatever variation on the Political Deal that will attract a net 115 votes, and there are 432 votes to win over.

    Assume that 100 of those are ERGy unreconcilable Tories, and another 100 are Corbyn ultras who will never vote for a May/Tory deal. That leaves 230 votes to play for so she needs just over half.

    My instincts say that:

    Norway adds 100 votes - not enough.
    Customs Union adds 120 votes but also loses 60 votes - not enough. Doesn’t work.
    People’s Vote adds 120 votes and also loses 50 - not enough.

    A combination of two would swing it though?
    Time to start the MP by MP analysis.

    ERG/DUP votes are far easier to peel off - time limit the backstop.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    TGOHF said:

    Forget the no deal blarney. It’s irrelevant virtue signalling. Also forget the noises from Number 10 that nothing has changed: one or more of May’s red lines will have to be crossed.

    May has 202 votes. She needs to find whatever variation on the Political Deal that will attract a net 115 votes, and there are 432 votes to win over.

    Assume that 100 of those are ERGy unreconcilable Tories, and another 100 are Corbyn ultras who will never vote for a May/Tory deal. That leaves 230 votes to play for so she needs just over half.

    My instincts say that:

    Norway adds 100 votes - not enough.
    Customs Union adds 120 votes but also loses 60 votes - not enough. Doesn’t work.
    People’s Vote adds 120 votes and also loses 50 - not enough.

    A combination of two would swing it though?
    Time to start the MP by MP analysis.

    ERG/DUP votes are far easier to peel off - time limit the backstop.

    Then you have no deal - The EU won't agree to it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    Polruan said:

    TGOHF said:

    So what ideas did Benn and Cooper bring to the PM that would allow a bill to pass other than "peepils vote" ?


    I’d guess they mentioned a customs union as well.
    Would being in the customs union pass the house ?
    Probably, with some other more minor concessions. Certainly makes it much easier to transfer the blame for no deal to Labour if they don’t support it.
    Question would be would it pass via Labour splitters or by converting Corbyn and him giving official Labour approval ?

    I'd suggest the latter is very unlikely.

    I suspect the former is equally unlikely. Remainer Labour MPs won't accept the compromise, most Leaver Labour MPs have been told that the Deal isn't good enough...
    Again - another reason why ERG/DUP votes are the easier ones to pick up.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Forget the no deal blarney. It’s irrelevant virtue signalling. Also forget the noises from Number 10 that nothing has changed: one or more of May’s red lines will have to be crossed.

    May has 202 votes. She needs to find whatever variation on the Political Deal that will attract a net 115 votes, and there are 432 votes to win over.

    Assume that 100 of those are ERGy unreconcilable Tories, and another 100 are Corbyn ultras who will never vote for a May/Tory deal. That leaves 230 votes to play for so she needs just over half.

    My instincts say that:

    Norway adds 100 votes - not enough.
    Customs Union adds 120 votes but also loses 60 votes - not enough. Doesn’t work.
    People’s Vote adds 120 votes and also loses 50 - not enough.

    A combination of two would swing it though?
    Time to start the MP by MP analysis.

    Yes, but. The way to do an MP by MP analysis is to put those options to Parliament in a vote. It could have been done before Christmas. Unfortunately, May is PM.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262

    eek said:

    In an end-of-days moment, I agree with @montie:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1085944707061108736

    Ah, that referendum timetable? A year is clearly a load of nonsense. Most of the time is earmarked for passage of legislation for starters which, with Government backing and majority support in the Commons, could be pushed through very quickly. The notion that it might get bogged down in Parliamentary ping-pong with the (strongly Remain) House of Lords isn't credible.

    My personal opinion is that a second referendum is a bad idea, but if Parliament wills it I'm sure it could be done much more rapidly than that.
    It says 7 months because it will take a long time to get it through the Commons and the Lords. The only thing that can be reduced is that the question can be roadtested at the same time and given that a simple question requires 12 weeks to test it may actually take 7 months to roadtest this quesiton...
    Why on earth does it need to take 7 months to pass through Parliament?!
    Seems nonsense if there is a will to get on with it
    Indeed, smacks of underlings coming up with the answer they think their bosses want.
  • SunnyJim said:


    I am not a believer in referenda, and I do not consider them "democratic"

    But you'll make an exception if it means a chance of over-turning Brexit?

    No I don't think it can be "overturned", certainly not in the short term, the damage is done to our relationship with the rest of Europe through the reckless behaviour of our populist politicians, whom I think are an unpatriotic disgrace. I think the result can and should be respected, and that should be through compromise, and through parliament. If parliament cannot, then a further referendum may be necessary, but it would not be my preference
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    Or accept the deal
    G, I admire your optimism, but flogging a dead horse is not a great idea.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Forget the no deal blarney. It’s irrelevant virtue signalling. Also forget the noises from Number 10 that nothing has changed: one or more of May’s red lines will have to be crossed.

    May has 202 votes. She needs to find whatever variation on the Political Deal that will attract a net 115 votes, and there are 432 votes to win over.

    Assume that 100 of those are ERGy unreconcilable Tories, and another 100 are Corbyn ultras who will never vote for a May/Tory deal. That leaves 230 votes to play for so she needs just over half.

    My instincts say that:

    Norway adds 100 votes - not enough.
    Customs Union adds 120 votes but also loses 60 votes - not enough. Doesn’t work.
    People’s Vote adds 120 votes and also loses 50 - not enough.

    A combination of two would swing it though?
    Time to start the MP by MP analysis.

    ERG/DUP votes are far easier to peel off - time limit the backstop.

    Then you have no deal - The EU won't agree to it.
    Passes in the house though - the focal point is then Uk vs Brussels. Progress..

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    I don't agree with Ian Dunt. No Deal Brexit is highly irresponsible in my book. You can commit to avoiding No Deal by implicitly accepting any reasonable alternative.

    Empty chairing isn't an appropriate response but the message is valid in my view.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited January 2019

    Forget the no deal blarney. It’s irrelevant virtue signalling. Also forget the noises from Number 10 that nothing has changed: one or more of May’s red lines will have to be crossed.

    May has 202 votes. She needs to find whatever variation on the Political Deal that will attract a net 115 votes, and there are 432 votes to win over.

    Assume that 100 of those are ERGy unreconcilable Tories, and another 100 are Corbyn ultras who will never vote for a May/Tory deal. That leaves 230 votes to play for so she needs just over half.

    My instincts say that:

    Norway adds 100 votes - not enough.
    Customs Union adds 120 votes but also loses 60 votes - not enough. Doesn’t work.
    People’s Vote adds 120 votes and also loses 50 - not enough.

    A combination of two would swing it though?
    Time to start the MP by MP analysis.

    How about her deal subject to her deal/remain referendum.

    Her deal is all ready to go
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I think there's a 99% chance that Plan B will be Plan A but with "demanding a time limit to the backstop".

    The rest of the time between now and the 29th March will be May endlessly flying back and forth to Brussels to demand they reopen the withdrawal agreement and the EU finding increasingly pass-agg ways of saying "what part of NO do you not understand you cloth-eared bint?"
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited January 2019

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Subject to the proviso that are still the 7th largest manufacturer in the world, that is true. All Gov’s have relied on services growth and largely ignored manufacturing since the 1970’s and too much of the manufacturing we still have is, with the exception of a few sectors like aerospace and automotive, repetitive components.

    We haven’t had anyone in Gov who understands manufacturing sadly otherwise we would have a competitive R&D tax regime, cheaper power, and better training all of which we lack.

    Brexit could see what we have left disappear or lead to a big boost if we had a Gov at all interested in import substitution to help address our chronic and persistent trade deficit.
  • dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    In an end-of-days moment, I agree with @montie:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1085944707061108736

    Ah, that referendum timetable? A year is clearly a load of nonsense. Most of the time is earmarked for passage of legislation for starters which, with Government backing and majority support in the Commons, could be pushed through very quickly. The notion that it might get bogged down in Parliamentary ping-pong with the (strongly Remain) House of Lords isn't credible.

    My personal opinion is that a second referendum is a bad idea, but if Parliament wills it I'm sure it could be done much more rapidly than that.
    It says 7 months because it will take a long time to get it through the Commons and the Lords. The only thing that can be reduced is that the question can be roadtested at the same time and given that a simple question requires 12 weeks to test it may actually take 7 months to roadtest this quesiton...
    Why on earth does it need to take 7 months to pass through Parliament?!
    Because May is PM? That would be lightning for her.
    She should put Grieve in charge of it, he seems to understand how parliament works.
    He has already served the bill
  • FF43 said:

    lol

    Im reminded of our spat on Cadburys and your total insouciance about job losses and factories shifting to Poland. Suck it up, a price worth paying you told me.

    Now suddenly you care about factory workers

    funny old world, who'd have thought they get votes too ?
    You seem to think that Brexit will slow down rather than accelerate the process. Brexit really was turkeys voting for Christmas, finding the way of making a trend that they hated even worse.
    you seem to think people in manufacturing havent been watching industrial hollowing at their expense for ages. Whether it accelerates or not remains to be seen there are arguments both ways. But if the powers that be had maybe paid more attention to keeping their voters in skilled employment we wouldnt be leaving the EU.
    Problem is, Brexit is all downside. If businesses have really good reasons to be in the UK they will stay, regardless of Brexit. They may be going anyway, in which case they won't be more likely to go because of Brexit. But at the margins, which is where a lot of these decisions are made, no-one will choose Britain because of Brexit, but they are highly likely to opt for the alternative because of it.
    Faith-based Brexit doesn't allow such doubts. Brexit is good and therefore it will be good. It is not Allowed to have downsides, even trivial ones, never mind major ones.
    Not at all. The remain pitch was based on telling people with nothing to loset that they would lose something, Its a vote for things might get better versus the certainty that they wont.
    What a gloomy outlook you have on the world. I am not surprised you voted for the country to go backwards
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    malcolmg said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    Or accept the deal
    G, I admire your optimism, but flogging a dead horse is not a great idea.
    Exactly. Mrs M's Plan B was pretty clearly to have another go at Plan A. The size of yesterday's defeat has blown that away and she is floundering.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I think there's a 99% chance that Plan B will be Plan A but with "demanding a time limit to the backstop".

    The rest of the time between now and the 29th March will be May endlessly flying back and forth to Brussels to demand they reopen the withdrawal agreement and the EU finding increasingly pass-agg ways of saying "what part of NO do you not understand you cloth-eared bint?"

    Her job would be easier if she had a vote on that which had passed in the house.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 43, 'not no deal' is meaningless.

    It's like having 'not no dating' as your romantic plan. You need to actually ask someone out, not commit to not being single any more.

    There's Miss Remain, Miss Deal, and Miss WTO to choose from. If another lady seems possible, that's fine. But just writing 'dear diary, today I decided not to be single any more' achieves precisely nothing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262

    Forget the no deal blarney. It’s irrelevant virtue signalling. Also forget the noises from Number 10 that nothing has changed: one or more of May’s red lines will have to be crossed.

    May has 202 votes. She needs to find whatever variation on the Political Deal that will attract a net 115 votes, and there are 432 votes to win over.

    Assume that 100 of those are ERGy unreconcilable Tories, and another 100 are Corbyn ultras who will never vote for a May/Tory deal. That leaves 230 votes to play for so she needs just over half.

    My instincts say that:

    Norway adds 100 votes - not enough.
    Customs Union adds 120 votes but also loses 60 votes - not enough. Doesn’t work.
    People’s Vote adds 120 votes and also loses 50 - not enough.

    A combination of two would swing it though?
    Time to start the MP by MP analysis.

    How about her deal subject to her deal/remain referendum.

    Her deal is all ready to go
    Yes, she could get that through the HoC I suspect.
  • malcolmg said:

    Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place

    Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo

    Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal

    I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position

    I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks

    I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit

    The only way to take No Deal out of the equation is to Extend or Revoke A50. So effectively to cancel the result of the referendum. Under those circumstances I don't see JRM or any other committed leaver continuing to support May.
    Or accept the deal
    G, I admire your optimism, but flogging a dead horse is not a great idea.
    I am optimistic but her deal is the best on offer so put it to a referendum if necessary
This discussion has been closed.