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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why HealthSec Hancock should be factored in as a potential TMa

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,555

    Mortimer said:

    This is magnificent:



    But the picture is even worse than it seems. Several of the "potential appointees" are ministers who May has already sacked (e.g. Philip Dunne) or encouraged to resign (Patrick McLoughlin).
    I think the premise of this is wrong.

    Recanters would be welcomed with open arms. If she can get a tweak/clarification to the backstop, then those who voted against coming back into the fold would be valuable currency.

    Or, if policy becomes no deal, then 100+ become available again.

    But, if they’re really struggling, I’d be happy to take a Brexit Peerage and help out!
    It’s also nonsense as she can always do was jezza did and have people do multiple jobs or merge of some of more nonsense jobs.
    Up to a point Lord Copper. It’s a bit more difficult within Govt as departments need political spokesmen; unless departments are done away with.

    Moving Difid and Dexeu back into the FO would get rid of two, though.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    This is magnificent:



    But the picture is even worse than it seems. Several of the "potential appointees" are ministers who May has already sacked (e.g. Philip Dunne) or encouraged to resign (Patrick McLoughlin).
    I think the premise of this is wrong.

    Recanters would be welcomed with open arms. If she can get a tweak/clarification to the backstop, then those who voted against coming back into the fold would be valuable currency.

    Or, if policy becomes no deal, then 100+ become available again.

    But, if they’re really struggling, I’d be happy to take a Brexit Peerage and help out!
    It’s also nonsense as she can always do was jezza did and have people do multiple jobs or merge of some of more nonsense jobs.
    Up to a point Lord Copper. It’s a bit more difficult within Govt as departments need political spokesmen; unless departments are done away with.

    Moving Difid and Dexeu back into the FO would get rid of two, though.
    In all honesty I think there are way too many ministers etc.
  • Anyone got a link to when Dan Hannan said it was Project Fear that the status of EU citizens would change due to Brexit?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,505
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    I've supported leaving the EU for about 20 years. Twenty years ago, that was not exactly a fringe position, but certainly unusual,, even within the Conservative Party. My own views on the EU haven't changed much over that time, but what's curious is finding myself now outflanked by loads of people who were once much closer to the centre than I was.

    But how big an issue for you?

    Like, morning of 24/6/16, which of these the closest:

    (i) Quietly pleased.
    (ii) A deep and real sense of optimism and well being.
    (iii) Exultant! Over the moon!
    II) I think.
  • Totally o/t...what a game of hand egg last night between patriots and chiefs.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mortimer said:

    Dan Hodges thinks we are heading to a GE, if the A50 is blocked.

    Me too. In that event, daring MPs to block an election is the last roll of the dice for May.
    If May could have a GE with even 1/2 of her 9-10 referendum denier Europhile MPs deselected and the same arithmetic as now she'd be in a far stronger position.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,832

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
  • Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    If you fancy a laugh and want to see the people republic of Remainia in full effect drop into the comments on the Guardian.

    A bastion of prejudice against anyone who had the temerity of coming to the conclusion that the EU didn’t seem to benefit them. John Harris’ piece today about Tim Martin and Wetherspoons has made the comments on here look positively enlightened.

    I know people like Alastair M have made the case on here for dialogue and bringing people around but I cannot see this 37% of people being convinced. There are only another 11% to work on.

    The key question for me is - is this a domestic civil war or is it a negotiation with the EU?

    If it's a negotiation the best next steps are not difficult to discern. Split the WA and the PD. Ratify the WA and leave. Hold a GE, winner takes the trade talks, ultimate outcome being a soft Brexit under the Cons or a very soft Brexit under Labour.

    But if it's a war, forget all that. Mushy compromise will not do. We must remain in the EU or leave it good and proper. One side must win, otherwise the fight goes on.

    Now on the internet, it is undoubtedly a war. Ditto down at College Green and, by the sounds of it, at Weatherspoons.

    But away from all of that? I think for most people it is still a negotiation. In which case leaving with a deal is best - and IMO, for all the current noise, inevitable.
    I've supported leaving the EU for about 20 years. Twenty years ago, that was not exactly a fringe position, but certainly unusual,, even within the Conservative Party. My own views on the EU haven't changed much over that time, but what's curious is finding myself now outflanked by loads of people who were once much closer to the centre than I was.
    Like myself. Three years ago I was backing Cameron's renegotiations and wanting to Remain. Now I'm bitterly opposed to the backstop and thus the Deal but you back it I recall correctly?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    This is magnificent:



    But the picture is even worse than it seems. Several of the "potential appointees" are ministers who May has already sacked (e.g. Philip Dunne) or encouraged to resign (Patrick McLoughlin).
    I can't find my MP (Simon Hoare) on the list at all. He must feel really valued. :smile:
  • rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,316

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    Indeed, but splitting the Conservative vote under FPTP in those Home Counties constituencies could have unpredictable consequences.

    In my own part of Oxfordshire, if the choice was incumbent (hard Brexit Tory), Remain Tory separatist, Brexit-supporting Corbynite Labour, and Lib Dem, I honestly couldn't tell you which way the vote would go.

    What I do suspect is that any centrist Tory split would very quickly reach an accommodation with the Lib Dems... and the combined vote might be enough to snatch a group of seats, maybe enough to restore the Lib Dems to their electoral strength before Clegg trashed it.
  • Re shortage of potential ministers...even given this, Larry the cat would probably still get the nod ahead of rory the Tory when it comes to a top job.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,505

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    If you fancy a laugh and want to see the people republic of Remainia in full effect drop into the comments on the Guardian.

    A bastion of prejudice against anyone who had the temerity of coming to the conclusion that the EU didn’t seem to benefit them. John Harris’ piece today about Tim Martin and Wetherspoons has made the comments on here look positively enlightened.

    I know people like Alastair M have made the case on here for dialogue and bringing people around but I cannot see this 37% of people being convinced. There are only another 11% to work on.

    The key question for me is - is this a domestic civil war or is it a negotiation with the EU?

    If it's a negotiation the best next steps are not difficult to discern. Split the WA and the PD. Ratify the WA and leave. Hold a GE, winner takes the trade talks, ultimate outcome being a soft Brexit under the Cons or a very soft Brexit under Labour.

    But if it's a war, forget all that. Mushy compromise will not do. We must remain in the EU or leave it good and proper. One side must win, otherwise the fight goes on.

    Now on the internet, it is undoubtedly a war. Ditto down at College Green and, by the sounds of it, at Weatherspoons.

    But away from all of that? I think for most people it is still a negotiation. In which case leaving with a deal is best - and IMO, for all the current noise, inevitable.
    I've supported leaving the EU for about 20 years. Twenty years ago, that was not exactly a fringe position, but certainly unusual,, even within the Conservative Party. My own views on the EU haven't changed much over that time, but what's curious is finding myself now outflanked by loads of people who were once much closer to the centre than I was.
    Like myself. Three years ago I was backing Cameron's renegotiations and wanting to Remain. Now I'm bitterly opposed to the backstop and thus the Deal but you back it I recall correctly?
    On balance, yes. I think that No Deal has the potential to be disruptive (discrediting Brexit), and potentially do more harm to the Union than the Backstop, while remaining is anathema to me.

    I could be wrong, though.
  • Anyone got a link to when Dan Hannan said it was Project Fear that the status of EU citizens would change due to Brexit?

    They're not changing. They can remain in the UK to work etc just as they can now.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,832

    Anyone got a link to when Dan Hannan said it was Project Fear that the status of EU citizens would change due to Brexit?

    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/705375753303683072?lang=en
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I would just like to burnish my inclusive and humanitarian credentials by pointing out that I just sold a car to someone I strongly suspect was a leaver. He even got a handshake and a curt nod.

    Do you suspect he's a Leaver on the basis that, if he wasn't, he'd never have been so gullible as to pay an inflated price for a lemon?
  • Is it so different with Corbyn and his close allies?

    They appear to envision a pure socialist country free from the constraints that a nasty capitalistic EU might impose upon them.

    Perhaps they should ally with the ERG.

    They have. That's why we're in the mess we are in.
  • A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Dura_Ace said:



    Inaccurate newspapers headlines over the Good Friday Agreement and a bi-lateral backstop deal with Ireland were jumped on with seal, roundly condemning TM for such nonsense, when Downing Street said both stories were not true and had nothing to do with them

    That's the point isn't it? TM sends one of her winged monkeys to leak her GFA idea to the press and gauge reaction without overtly articulating it. As it happens it's gone down horribly so she moves on (or more likely back) to another terrible idea.
    Well exactly. These ideas are clearly coming from somewhere.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,505

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387

    Cicero said:

    Hancock? Well why not, the rest of the Tories are as about useless and forgetable as he is.

    The thing about this unedifying spectacle, especially since Theresa May seems to be the worlds greatest political zombie, is the simple banality of all the Tory offerings:

    Johnson: Rogue and liar, also lazy and cant keep his trousers on- so obviously current favourite (in a party that previously chose Jeffrey Archer for... well, anything at all really)
    Javid: bland and untainted with any opinions, faintly technocrat, otherwise deeply dull
    Rudd: better than May, in the same way that Cleethorpes is better than Grimsby.
    Hunt: The worlds greatest spoonerism, enough bodies at health to make things tricky
    Raab: reminds you of the Maths teacher who thought he was "damn hard" but failed to keep order, even with a blackboard rubber, hard to tell apart from Gavin Williamson except by the extra vowel.
    Davis: keeps being found on the streets in his pyjamas and needs to be taken home.
    Liddington: a robotic garden gnome
    Esther McVey: "the ego has landed", widely thought to keep winged monkeys
    Williamson: you could walk in his deepest thoughts, and not get your feet wet.
    Rees-Mogg: the face of Conservative future.

    The list goes on and on and they are all pretty much dreadful.

    Very amusing. However there is one clown with a low IQ and a dodgy backstory that is now only fooling about 20% of the population. He is the alternative, and he makes all but the first and last one you listed look competent and attractive.
    You keep saying this but someone with 2 A levels from the 1960s would have been well above average in IQ terms. To claim otherwise is to imply that 80% of the population was then 'thick'.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,832

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
    I think we had this discussion before, but Deal minus backstop isn't going to get the votes from her party. The backstop is only one issue, Tory MPs have lots of other objections.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,553

    Re shortage of potential ministers...even given this, Larry the cat would probably still get the nod ahead of rory the Tory when it comes to a top job.

    I just don't get the pb tory love in with this jug eared geek who fled Dhi Qar leaving it a sea of flame and blood.
  • eekeek Posts: 7,079
    edited January 2019

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited January 2019
    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2milion distribution
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,399
    edited January 2019

    Anyone got a link to when Dan Hannan said it was Project Fear that the status of EU citizens would change due to Brexit?

    They're not changing. They can remain in the UK to work etc just as they can now.
    As long as they pay £65 for the privilege and entrust the famously competent Home Office not to lose the paperwork
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
    There does seem to be a push from the EU side to get the backstop removed.

    The ex Europe Minister of Portugal has an article on Politico this morning saying that the EU has got it all wrong and should just remove the backstop and get the deal signed.

    One to watch over the next few days as Leo is in Davos and meeting a number of EU country leaders.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Seems that way, else she really is just as unicorny as everyone else.
  • Hancock is too indecisive and weak to be a PM.

    Voters like strong leaders,

    On TV he always comes across as a rabbit frozen in the headlights as questions are asked.



  • kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2milion distribution

    Distribution does not equal readership.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,555

    This is magnificent:



    But the picture is even worse than it seems. Several of the "potential appointees" are ministers who May has already sacked (e.g. Philip Dunne) or encouraged to resign (Patrick McLoughlin).
    I can't find my MP (Simon Hoare) on the list at all. He must feel really valued. :smile:
    Isn’t he Javid’s PPS?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,316
    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,316

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
    There does seem to be a push from the EU side to get the backstop removed.

    The ex Europe Minister of Portugal has an article on Politico this morning
    Wheeling out the big guns I see...
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,777

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    What Brexit 'settlement' wouldn't tear the Tory party apart?
    I think the deal on the table is the Most likely to tear the Tory party apart. That’s why May came up with it. She needs Mogg et al to realise that Brexit is threatened which now they have grandstanded their objection they can. She needs something to throw to the Europhiles - that is going to be more problematic.

    If she can get some sort of time limit to the backstop - perhaps a two year notice period leading to no deal equivalent to article 50. That might be enough to bring the DUP and ERG in line
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    edited January 2019

    Hancock is too indecisive and weak to be a PM.

    Voters like strong leaders,

    We have three weak party leaders right now, do the voters really care? I mean, Corbyn is probably the least weak and that's a terrible situation to be in.
  • eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.
    After Black Wednesday Tory credibility on the economy was destroyed.

    It's at least plausible that a no deal Brexit that was seen to lead to a recession would have a similar impact.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,505

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.
  • eekeek Posts: 7,079
    edited January 2019

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
    Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
    Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees
  • This is magnificent:



    But the picture is even worse than it seems. Several of the "potential appointees" are ministers who May has already sacked (e.g. Philip Dunne) or encouraged to resign (Patrick McLoughlin).
    There is an infinite supply of Lords and Ladies from which to pick. Not many Leave voters amongst them though.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Dura_Ace said:

    Re shortage of potential ministers...even given this, Larry the cat would probably still get the nod ahead of rory the Tory when it comes to a top job.

    I just don't get the pb tory love in with this jug eared geek who fled Dhi Qar leaving it a sea of flame and blood.
    He's being compared to the likes of IDS. This is a relative rather than absolute judgement.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    You've got to be joking. The Tory party has thrust has down this road from the beginning; if it turns out badly they will carry around the consequences for a generation. Cf. Black Wednesday, Winter of Discontent, etc.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,505
    eek said:

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
    Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
    Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees
    I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    Looking at Article 3 of the withdrawal agreement:

    "The United Kingdom, having had regard to progress made towards conclusion of the agreement
    referred to in Articles 1(4) and 2(1) of this Protocol, may at any time before 1 July 2020 request the
    extension of the transition period referred to in Article 126 of the Withdrawal Agreement. If the
    United Kingdom makes such a request, the transition period may be extended in accordance with
    Article 132 of the Withdrawal Agreement."


    then surely an amendment to the WA could be made to say that if no deal is concluded, the transition period would be extended. OK so not great for the we must leave and leave now-ers, but avoids completely the backstop?
  • kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2milion distribution

    Incredible. Not even in my wildest dreams did I think that Leavers were capable of allowing, yet alone actively pursuing, No Deal. Indeed, had a Remainer suggested this during the referendum campaign I would have rebuked him for disseminating fantastic and terrible lies. However, this was evidently Leave's plan all along. They did well to keep it so secret. Had a single Leaver uttered a word of it before the vote it would have killed the case for Brexit stone dead.
  • felix said:

    eek said:

    I’d also point out my job was effectively relocated to Germany thanks to Brexit.

    Something Leavers said wouldn’t happen either.

    what your new employer is sending you to Germany as well ?
    No.

    But I liked my old job but others don’t have the luxury I have.
    You mean like factory workers who have had their jobs sent out to Europe for years now and whose upside was a fairly weak redundancy package ?

    Thats the world we have made Mr Eagles and anyone protesting was told to shut up.
    The problem with that argument is that it doesn't solve anything - it's like a child having a temper tantrum because he can't have ice cream while someone else is eating one...
    Alanbrooke seems to support Brexit so that everyone can suffer.
    Now youre just off one handed posting again.

    I get monumentally bored posting I voted Brexit and wanted a soft Brexit and would happily vote for Mrs Ms deal. In your madcap world where everyone is Nigel Farages evil twin there is no room for understanding others positions. But there you go.
    Your stock post is a bitch about how the elite have let manufacturing down these past twenty years.

    Therefore, Brexit is worth voting for so that the “elite” get a taste of their own medicine.

    It’s simple nihilism.
    Yes, saying he is against the establishment, but admires a bunch of old Etonians doesn't exactly make him look the brightest ticket in the book. Then again, he is a supporter of Brexit
    Obviously the right to vote should be limited to those only with high IQ. In your world .

    Limiting votes to those with a high IQ guarantees Remaining in the EU.

    Majority of graduates and professionals voted remain.
  • eekeek Posts: 7,079
    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
    Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
    Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees
    I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.
    That's my point - at any election people vote for the least worst option - something bad in the past is often enough to cloud people's opinion when they look forward so people will never vote for that party.

    I think you assume people are rational when most are not as equally


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    Sean_F said:

    (II) I think.

    Right. Thought so. Did not have you down as a (iii) - leave that to blonde women in Sunderland in red LEAVE sweatshirts perched on shoulders of blokes and waving arms in air.

    So, a sense of optimism and well being. That is nice but I bet much of it has dissipated. Be amazed if it hasn't.

    BTW, must have balance so a similar 3 for remainers, morning of 24/6/16:

    (i) Surprised and disappointed.
    (ii) Shocked, a bit upset, but a frisson of excitement.
    (iii) Utterly discombobulated, numb, sick as a parrot and absolutely gutted!

    Where I would be a (ii).

    Or am I just saying that to look all sensible and mature? Was I really more of a (iii)?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,763

    Hancock is too indecisive and weak to be a PM.

    Voters like strong leaders,

    On TV he always comes across as a rabbit frozen in the headlights as questions are asked.



    He always makes me think of the guy who gets killed in the boardroom scene in robocop
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2019

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2milion distribution

    Incredible. Not even in my wildest dreams did I think that Leavers were capable of allowing, yet alone actively pursuing, No Deal. Indeed, had a Remainer suggested this during the referendum campaign I would have rebuked him for disseminating fantastic and terrible lies. However, this was evidently Leave's plan all along. They did well to keep it so secret. Had a single Leaver uttered a word of it before the vote it would have killed the case for Brexit stone dead.
    Surely for most people the referendum was about two different visions - Take Back Control Versus Status Quo. Very much contrasting scenarios and not a middle way. A No Deal WTO exit satisfies the Take Back Control vision.

    May's deal has us still tied up in EU bureacracy and rules.
  • eekeek Posts: 7,079
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    (II) I think.

    Right. Thought so. Did not have you down as a (iii) - leave that to blonde women in Sunderland in red LEAVE sweatshirts perched on shoulders of blokes and waving arms in air.

    So, a sense of optimism and well being. That is nice but I bet much of it has dissipated. Be amazed if it hasn't.

    BTW, must have balance so a similar 3 for remainers, morning of 24/6/16:

    (i) Surprised and disappointed.
    (ii) Shocked, a bit upset, but a frisson of excitement.
    (iii) Utterly discombobulated, numb, sick as a parrot and absolutely gutted!

    Where I would be a (ii).

    Or am I just saying that to look all sensible and mature? Was I really more of a (iii)?
    Where does surprised but over 5 figures better off appear on the list - this is after all a betting website...
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
    I think we had this discussion before, but Deal minus backstop isn't going to get the votes from her party. The backstop is only one issue, Tory MPs have lots of other objections.
    I think it will. JRM, Boris and many others have said they could back the deal without the backstop. There would only be diehard Remainers left blocking the deal in an attempt to get s referendum (but thus risking no deal) if the leavers fall into line to get Brexit over the line.

    Can you name a single Leaver who has said they would oppose the deal even if the backstop were removed?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2milion distribution

    Incredible. Not even in my wildest dreams did I think that Leavers were capable of allowing, yet alone actively pursuing, No Deal. Indeed, had a Remainer suggested this during the referendum campaign I would have rebuked him for disseminating fantastic and terrible lies. However, this was evidently Leave's plan all along. They did well to keep it so secret. Had a single Leaver uttered a word of it before the vote it would have killed the case for Brexit stone dead.
    Worst pint I've ever had was in a Wetherspoons. Thick with cloud. Took one look, let alone sip, and refused it. Admittedly they offered me a different, one but I'd fancied that particular beer. However, switched to cider.
  • felix said:

    eek said:

    I’d also point out my job was effectively relocated to Germany thanks to Brexit.

    Something Leavers said wouldn’t happen either.

    what your new employer is sending you to Germany as well ?
    No.

    But I liked my old job but others don’t have the luxury I have.
    You mean like factory workers who have had their jobs sent out to Europe for years now and whose upside was a fairly weak redundancy package ?

    Thats the world we have made Mr Eagles and anyone protesting was told to shut up.
    The problem with that argument is that it doesn't solve anything - it's like a child having a temper tantrum because he can't have ice cream while someone else is eating one...
    Alanbrooke seems to support Brexit so that everyone can suffer.
    Now youre just off one handed posting again.

    I get monumentally bored posting I voted Brexit and wanted a soft Brexit and would happily vote for Mrs Ms deal. In your madcap world where everyone is Nigel Farages evil twin there is no room for understanding others positions. But there you go.
    Your stock post is a bitch about how the elite have let manufacturing down these past twenty years.

    Therefore, Brexit is worth voting for so that the “elite” get a taste of their own medicine.

    It’s simple nihilism.
    Yes, saying he is against the establishment, but admires a bunch of old Etonians doesn't exactly make him look the brightest ticket in the book. Then again, he is a supporter of Brexit
    Obviously the right to vote should be limited to those only with high IQ. In your world .

    Limiting votes to those with a high IQ guarantees Remaining in the EU.

    Majority of graduates and professionals voted remain.
    Oh dear! Back in the 1970s far fewer people went to college than now when you can get a degree in pretty much anything. Those people voted overwhelmingly to stay in the Common Market. The samepeople voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU. Are you saying everyone in 1975 is thick or that they got thicker over the years?

    In other words - use some sense not prejudice.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    (II) I think.

    Right. Thought so. Did not have you down as a (iii) - leave that to blonde women in Sunderland in red LEAVE sweatshirts perched on shoulders of blokes and waving arms in air.

    So, a sense of optimism and well being. That is nice but I bet much of it has dissipated. Be amazed if it hasn't.

    BTW, must have balance so a similar 3 for remainers, morning of 24/6/16:

    (i) Surprised and disappointed.
    (ii) Shocked, a bit upset, but a frisson of excitement.
    (iii) Utterly discombobulated, numb, sick as a parrot and absolutely gutted!

    Where I would be a (ii).

    Or am I just saying that to look all sensible and mature? Was I really more of a (iii)?
    (iii) utter disbelief and worry for the future
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 31,439
    edited January 2019
    Poland's foreign minister breaks with the EU by saying the backstop should be limited to 5 years

    Will be interesting if Italy follows
  • Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    Which makes it more likely the Tories will ultimately be that party. It was there manifesto last time to leave the Single Market and Customs Union which is how some here are defining a hard Brexit.
  • TOPPING said:

    Looking at Article 3 of the withdrawal agreement:

    "The United Kingdom, having had regard to progress made towards conclusion of the agreement
    referred to in Articles 1(4) and 2(1) of this Protocol, may at any time before 1 July 2020 request the
    extension of the transition period referred to in Article 126 of the Withdrawal Agreement. If the
    United Kingdom makes such a request, the transition period may be extended in accordance with
    Article 132 of the Withdrawal Agreement."


    then surely an amendment to the WA could be made to say that if no deal is concluded, the transition period would be extended. OK so not great for the we must leave and leave now-ers, but avoids completely the backstop?

    It already allows the transition to be extended indefinitely. Which equals remaining in the EU.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.

    That looks like a Labour landslide!

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,194

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
    There does seem to be a push from the EU side to get the backstop removed.

    The ex Europe Minister of Portugal has an article on Politico this morning saying that the EU has got it all wrong and should just remove the backstop and get the deal signed.

    One to watch over the next few days as Leo is in Davos and meeting a number of EU country leaders.
    That guy, Bruno Macaes, who I follow on Twitter, is if anything a counter-indicator of EU thinking.
  • justin124 said:

    Cicero said:

    Hancock? Well why not, the rest of the Tories are as about useless and forgetable as he is.

    The thing about this unedifying spectacle, especially since Theresa May seems to be the worlds greatest political zombie, is the simple banality of all the Tory offerings:

    Johnson: Rogue and liar, also lazy and cant keep his trousers on- so obviously current favourite (in a party that previously chose Jeffrey Archer for... well, anything at all really)
    Javid: bland and untainted with any opinions, faintly technocrat, otherwise deeply dull
    Rudd: better than May, in the same way that Cleethorpes is better than Grimsby.
    Hunt: The worlds greatest spoonerism, enough bodies at health to make things tricky
    Raab: reminds you of the Maths teacher who thought he was "damn hard" but failed to keep order, even with a blackboard rubber, hard to tell apart from Gavin Williamson except by the extra vowel.
    Davis: keeps being found on the streets in his pyjamas and needs to be taken home.
    Liddington: a robotic garden gnome
    Esther McVey: "the ego has landed", widely thought to keep winged monkeys
    Williamson: you could walk in his deepest thoughts, and not get your feet wet.
    Rees-Mogg: the face of Conservative future.

    The list goes on and on and they are all pretty much dreadful.

    Very amusing. However there is one clown with a low IQ and a dodgy backstory that is now only fooling about 20% of the population. He is the alternative, and he makes all but the first and last one you listed look competent and attractive.
    You keep saying this but someone with 2 A levels from the 1960s would have been well above average in IQ terms. To claim otherwise is to imply that 80% of the population was then 'thick'.
    That implies the 80% of the country couldn't have achieved two E's having had a very privileged education rather than just that they didn't.

    Just because some left education at 16 then especially if they went to a school and came from a family that expected that doesn't mean they couldn't have done otherwise.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    Anorak said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    (II) I think.

    Right. Thought so. Did not have you down as a (iii) - leave that to blonde women in Sunderland in red LEAVE sweatshirts perched on shoulders of blokes and waving arms in air.

    So, a sense of optimism and well being. That is nice but I bet much of it has dissipated. Be amazed if it hasn't.

    BTW, must have balance so a similar 3 for remainers, morning of 24/6/16:

    (i) Surprised and disappointed.
    (ii) Shocked, a bit upset, but a frisson of excitement.
    (iii) Utterly discombobulated, numb, sick as a parrot and absolutely gutted!

    Where I would be a (ii).

    Or am I just saying that to look all sensible and mature? Was I really more of a (iii)?
    (iii) utter disbelief and worry for the future
    (iii) for me too
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.
    We might have a coalition between Hard Brexit and Remainer Conservative parties, although without a candidate alliance between them the FPTP system would destrop the number of Conservative MPs of both kinds.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    edited January 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.

    That looks like a Labour landslide!

    Whichever main party splits hands the election to the other.

    Which is why such miserably unhappy colleagues are sticking together in the first place.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223

    TOPPING said:

    Looking at Article 3 of the withdrawal agreement:

    "The United Kingdom, having had regard to progress made towards conclusion of the agreement
    referred to in Articles 1(4) and 2(1) of this Protocol, may at any time before 1 July 2020 request the
    extension of the transition period referred to in Article 126 of the Withdrawal Agreement. If the
    United Kingdom makes such a request, the transition period may be extended in accordance with
    Article 132 of the Withdrawal Agreement."


    then surely an amendment to the WA could be made to say that if no deal is concluded, the transition period would be extended. OK so not great for the we must leave and leave now-ers, but avoids completely the backstop?

    It already allows the transition to be extended indefinitely. Which equals remaining in the EU.
    Calling it a transition I think would help with the optics. Plus if you think being part of a customs agreement as specified by the WA = remaining in the EU then you are barely worth engaging with.
  • felix said:

    eek said:

    I’d also point out my job was effectively relocated to Germany thanks to Brexit.

    Something Leavers said wouldn’t happen either.

    what your new employer is sending you to Germany as well ?
    No.

    But I liked my old job but others don’t have the luxury I have.
    You mean like factory workers who have had their jobs sent out to Europe for years now and whose upside was a fairly weak redundancy package ?

    Thats the world we have made Mr Eagles and anyone protesting was told to shut up.
    The problem with that argument is that it doesn't solve anything - it's like a child having a temper tantrum because he can't have ice cream while someone else is eating one...
    Alanbrooke seems to support Brexit so that everyone can suffer.
    Now youre just off one handed posting again.

    I get monumentally bored posting I voted Brexit and wanted a soft Brexit and would happily vote for Mrs Ms deal. In your madcap world where everyone is Nigel Farages evil twin there is no room for understanding others positions. But there you go.
    Your stock post is a bitch about how the elite have let manufacturing down these past twenty years.

    Therefore, Brexit is worth voting for so that the “elite” get a taste of their own medicine.

    It’s simple nihilism.
    Yes, saying he is against the establishment, but admires a bunch of old Etonians doesn't exactly make him look the brightest ticket in the book. Then again, he is a supporter of Brexit
    Obviously the right to vote should be limited to those only with high IQ. In your world .

    Limiting votes to those with a high IQ guarantees Remaining in the EU.

    Majority of graduates and professionals voted remain.
    Oh dear! Back in the 1970s far fewer people went to college than now when you can get a degree in pretty much anything. Those people voted overwhelmingly to stay in the Common Market. The samepeople voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU. Are you saying everyone in 1975 is thick or that they got thicker over the years?

    In other words - use some sense not prejudice.
    Going to college does not equal high IQ.

    Passing the Eleven plus does have some correlation to high IQ.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,714
    kle4 said:

    Hancock is too indecisive and weak to be a PM.

    Voters like strong leaders,

    We have three weak party leaders right now, do the voters really care? I mean, Corbyn is probably the least weak and that's a terrible situation to be in.
    May could be a 'three week' party leader right now.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 777
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

    The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looking at Article 3 of the withdrawal agreement:

    "The United Kingdom, having had regard to progress made towards conclusion of the agreement
    referred to in Articles 1(4) and 2(1) of this Protocol, may at any time before 1 July 2020 request the
    extension of the transition period referred to in Article 126 of the Withdrawal Agreement. If the
    United Kingdom makes such a request, the transition period may be extended in accordance with
    Article 132 of the Withdrawal Agreement."


    then surely an amendment to the WA could be made to say that if no deal is concluded, the transition period would be extended. OK so not great for the we must leave and leave now-ers, but avoids completely the backstop?

    It already allows the transition to be extended indefinitely. Which equals remaining in the EU.
    Calling it a transition I think would help with the optics. Plus if you think being part of a customs agreement as specified by the WA = remaining in the EU then you are barely worth engaging with.
    In the ytransitio we remain in the EU customs union. So indefinite transition means indefinitely in the EU customs union.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looking at Article 3 of the withdrawal agreement:

    "The United Kingdom, having had regard to progress made towards conclusion of the agreement
    referred to in Articles 1(4) and 2(1) of this Protocol, may at any time before 1 July 2020 request the
    extension of the transition period referred to in Article 126 of the Withdrawal Agreement. If the
    United Kingdom makes such a request, the transition period may be extended in accordance with
    Article 132 of the Withdrawal Agreement."


    then surely an amendment to the WA could be made to say that if no deal is concluded, the transition period would be extended. OK so not great for the we must leave and leave now-ers, but avoids completely the backstop?

    It already allows the transition to be extended indefinitely. Which equals remaining in the EU.
    Calling it a transition I think would help with the optics. Plus if you think being part of a customs agreement as specified by the WA = remaining in the EU then you are barely worth engaging with.
    In the ytransitio we remain in the EU customs union. So indefinite transition means indefinitely in the EU customs union.
    It does - and you are telling me that being in the EU customs union = remaining in the EU? That it?
  • Fenman said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

    The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.
    Except none are “down”. One appears to have suffered financial fraud, but the owner has put money in the business to keep it going.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,100
    eek said:


    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    Grieve was asked if there was any deal at all that would see him respecting the referendum result.

    He replied Norway...

    ...but he then said it was so close to remaining that he wouldn't vote for that either because there was no point.

    Grieve will do anything he possibly can to stop Brexit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    As succinct a reason as I can come up,with for Trump not being the nominee in 2020:
    imagine 1976 if Nixon were still the incumbent.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/20/five-reasons-trump-may-be-one-termer/

    And Harris just announced candidacy.
  • Fenman said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

    The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.
    Except none are “down”. One appears to have suffered financial fraud, but the owner has put money in the business to keep it going.
    I wonder how many Remainer-supporting businesses have gone down (or are going)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    eek said:

    Where does surprised but over 5 figures better off appear on the list - this is after all a betting website...

    Ah well, the wallet, that is something completely different. I made so much money on Trump that I had a Flat White at Starbucks. Didn't help that much.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Where does surprised but over 5 figures better off appear on the list - this is after all a betting website...

    Ah well, the wallet, that is something completely different. I made so much money on Trump that I had a Flat White at Starbucks. Didn't help that much.
    I do not want to assume anything but I think you reside in the UK. If so why are you so concerned about Trump?
    Personally I treat him as a spitting image caricature and have a laugh.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,100

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    The Tories are pragmatic and once Brexit is sorted, one way or the other, then I suspect the party will do what it does and paper over any cracks and carry on.

    I do think those who are clearly in the wrong party will be invited to continue their careers elsewhere though.

    Grieve, Soubry, Woolaston etc.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Nigelb said:

    As succinct a reason as I can come up,with for Trump not being the nominee in 2020:
    imagine 1976 if Nixon were still the incumbent.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/20/five-reasons-trump-may-be-one-termer/

    And Harris just announced candidacy.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sen-kamala-harris-announces-2020-presidential-bid-n960821
  • Fenman said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

    The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.
    Except none are “down”. One appears to have suffered financial fraud, but the owner has put money in the business to keep it going.
    I wonder how many Remainer-supporting businesses have gone down (or are going)
    I hope as few as business as have gone bust as possible. Being gleeful about it, is revelling in loss of peoples jobs. Is as distasteful as all the stuff about old dying off because they supported leave.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,505

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.

    That looks like a Labour landslide!

    It could well be, but I'd expect the Hard Brexit Conservatives to have a sufficiently concentrated vote to still win a lot of seats.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    One does wonder how Vince Cable fills his days.

    Is he sitting at home in the New Forest watching repeats of Countdown?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.

    That looks like a Labour landslide!

    Whichever main party splits hands the election to the other.

    Which is why such miserably unhappy colleagues are sticking together in the first place.
    Sadly do. In that at least they are not fools.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,505
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.

    That looks like a Labour landslide!

    Whichever main party splits hands the election to the other.

    Which is why such miserably unhappy colleagues are sticking together in the first place.
    Sadly do. In that at least they are not fools.
    Quite possibly, if one splits, so does the other, as the incentive to stick together is reduced.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.

    That looks like a Labour landslide!

    Whichever main party splits hands the election to the other.

    Which is why such miserably unhappy colleagues are sticking together in the first place.
    Sadly do. In that at least they are not fools.
    Quite possibly, if one splits, so does the other, as the incentive to stick together is reduced.
    Almost guaranteed office isn't an incentive??
  • SunnyJim said:

    eek said:


    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    Grieve was asked if there was any deal at all that would see him respecting the referendum result.

    He replied Norway...

    ...but he then said it was so close to remaining that he wouldn't vote for that either because there was no point.

    Grieve will do anything he possibly can to stop Brexit.
    Indeed he has zero intention of honouring either the 2015 or 2017 Tory manifestos. He is more of a "bastard" than any of Major's rebels were.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,993
    edited January 2019
    I knew I should have avoided PB today.

    North London will be rooting for the Pats. It would be soooooooo funny if the Rams win. Stan could bring the trophy to the Emirates.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.

    That looks like a Labour landslide!

    It could well be, but I'd expect the Hard Brexit Conservatives to have a sufficiently concentrated vote to still win a lot of seats.

    Yep - the East of England would be its heartland

  • Fenman said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

    The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.
    Except none are “down”. One appears to have suffered financial fraud, but the owner has put money in the business to keep it going.
    I wonder how many Remainer-supporting businesses have gone down (or are going)
    I hope as few as business as have gone bust as possible. Being gleeful about it, is revelling in loss of peoples jobs. Is as distasteful as all the stuff about old dying off because they supported leave.
    I (unlike the commentator to which I replied) don't revel in it - the vast majority of businesses going down are struggling because of the difficulty in promoting themselves on the internet and has nothing to do with Brexit. (About 20 years ago at a conference I pointed out that the internet would eventually result in a very small number of very successful companies - for the simple reason is that if you look for a product anywhere in the UK, you would get the same results thrown at you from the search engine you preferred to use. Just consider the amount spent on SEO.)

    I would point out, however, that the demise of the high street in many northern towns is probably one of the reasons for the referendum decision. Many voters will have lost their jobs or known someone who had and needed someone to blame.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    Tricky to see how the Rams will do it with Brady/Edelman/Gronk coming into top form and Gurley obviously slightly injured.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,687
    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.
  • Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

    Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    Judging by the degree of support there is for a No Deal Brexit, I would expect a hard Brexit party to scoop up the bulk of Conservative voters.
    That may well be true, but under FPTP, simply retaining the "bulk" isn't good enough.

    There are around 60 seats where a 5% swing against the Conservatives would see them displaced. The Tories could retain the bulk of their vote yet we'd be in Labour landslide territory.
    Such a party would probably pick up some support from Labour leavers and UKIP.

    If pushed, I'd estimate something like Labour 34%, Hard Brexit Conservatives 28%, Remain Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 10%, Others 13%.

    That looks like a Labour landslide!

    It could well be, but I'd expect the Hard Brexit Conservatives to have a sufficiently concentrated vote to still win a lot of seats.
    Seats like Guildford and Winchester would probably come back into play for the Liberal Democrats.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,194

    Fenman said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

    The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.
    Except none are “down”. One appears to have suffered financial fraud, but the owner has put money in the business to keep it going.
    I wonder how many Remainer-supporting businesses have gone down (or are going)
    I hope as few as business as have gone bust as possible. Being gleeful about it, is revelling in loss of peoples jobs. Is as distasteful as all the stuff about old dying off because they supported leave.
    I (unlike the commentator to which I replied) don't revel in it - the vast majority of businesses going down are struggling because of the difficulty in promoting themselves on the internet and has nothing to do with Brexit. (About 20 years ago at a conference I pointed out that the internet would eventually result in a very small number of very successful companies - for the simple reason is that if you look for a product anywhere in the UK, you would get the same results thrown at you from the search engine you preferred to use. Just consider the amount spent on SEO.)

    I would point out, however, that the demise of the high street in many northern towns is probably one of the reasons for the referendum decision. Many voters will have lost their jobs or known someone who had and needed someone to blame.
    Yes. Brexit has very little to do with the EU.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    edited January 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Tricky to see how the Rams will do it with Brady/Edelman/Gronk coming into top form and Gurley obviously slightly injured.
    Also Belichick....he out thought chiefs last night (although obviously the game was close). Blasted them with the run game and then switched to Edelman / gronk at just the right time.

    Nobody likes them, Belichick can be a total arse, but there is a reason patriots get to at least the championship game pretty much every year.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    Fenman said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

    The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.
    Except none are “down”. One appears to have suffered financial fraud, but the owner has put money in the business to keep it going.
    A shareholder has loaned the business money, which, depending upon where he ranks as a creditor, is not necessarily a massive vote of confidence.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Mr. Mariner, not only that, but if things are going badly for you then any change offers the prospect of some hope (and if things go badly, well, they're doing that already). Warnings of losing out mean far less if you don't have much to start with.

    Mr. Urquhart, I like hard copies. No server requirements, online access necessary etc. Boo hiss to digital tosh.

    Anyway, I must be off.
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