The EU are planning the same change - it was going to be from this October but is now being planned from 2021. We would presumably follow - which would mean choosing between GMT all year (which would upset southerners as it would get dark at 8pm in summer) or BST all year (which would upset the Scots as it wouldn't get light in winter until 10.30am). Could Scotland have its own time zone and Ni align to Ireland?
Could choosing between summer or winter time all year round become as divisive as Brexit and put the union at risk......?!
Italian cuisine isn't healthy though - all that dough, all those carbs, all that gluten let alone the pineapples on top. Just slows you down and depletes your energy.
Ah, the best Requiems miss it out though - Fauré's and Duruflé's.
(Completely off-topic, but if you want a thrilling modern Catholic mass, Yves Castagnet's 'Messe Salve Regina' is stunning. Real turn-it-up-to-11 stuff.)
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Key thing is to keep count of the Tories who aren't backing May:
Damian Collins, Sam Gyimah, Andrea Jenkyns.
Presumably Anne Marie Morris as she was the one Brexiteer who didn't go with Brady? Have I missed any?
If that list stays a trickle, there's a chance that 15 Labour MPs dive in and save the deal. As soon as you've got 20 or so on the list, they won't bother and it's doomed.
As many posters are saying, something has changed. Nothing to do with the froth in Strasbourg, it's that for the first time we can see what happens next if this deal isn't passed - and it's not going to get any more palatable to a Brexit fan. That's the real change today.
Italian cuisine is the best, but much of this is just down to familiarity. US cuisine ought to be at the bottom of the list, Lebanese cuisine should be close to the top. So should Carribean, so long as your stomach is lined with copper.
Good Thai food is very good, but there's a lot of crap that's marketed as Thai food in this country.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Wasn't DAG being punted as a remoaner last night? He very obviously doesn't have the necessary movable principles or the self deceiving ability to spin on the tiniest coin of 'unilateral declaration' to become an honorable member.
He’s a total Remoaner who pretends to be a Leaver who is merely “interested in the legal issues”. It’s utter horseshit, he is desperate to see Brexit reversed; for some reason he is unable to admit it, but all his tweets - especially the unguarded late-night ones - underline this.
That doesn’t make his opinions worthless, however. He is often acute, and prescient.
To paraphrase his own words, he’s an instinctive Eurosceptics who nevertheless thinks Brexit is amazingly stupid, which is a position I think I might place myself if pushed:
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
Not sure. I don't think she's voted since they let her out of clink, but I might be wrong.
Wasn't DAG being punted as a remoaner last night? He very obviously doesn't have the necessary movable principles or the self deceiving ability to spin on the tiniest coin of 'unilateral declaration' to become an honorable member.
He’s a total Remoaner who pretends to be a Leaver who is merely “interested in the legal issues”. It’s utter horseshit, he is desperate to see Brexit reversed; for some reason he is unable to admit it, but all his tweets - especially the unguarded late-night ones - underline this.
That doesn’t make his opinions worthless, however. He is often acute, and prescient.
To paraphrase his own words, he’s an instinctive Eurosceptics who nevertheless thinks Brexit is amazingly stupid, which is a position I think I might place myself if pushed:
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
Key thing is to keep count of the Tories who aren't backing May:
Damian Collins, Sam Gyimah, Andrea Jenkyns.
Presumably Anne Marie Morris as she was the one Brexiteer who didn't go with Brady? Have I missed any?
If that list stays a trickle, there's a chance that 15 Labour MPs dive in and save the deal. As soon as you've got 20 or so on the list, they won't bother and it's doomed.
As many posters are saying, something has changed. Nothing to do with the froth in Strasbourg, it's that for the first time we can see what happens next if this deal isn't passed - and it's not going to get any more palatable to a Brexit fan. That's the real change today.
Anne Marie Morris sounded as though she was wavering.
Trouble is people (ERGers) have become so entrenched that they will be blind to any actual concession as the volte face required would be too much for them.
They are stuck. As therefore are we.
Not really. If they do ensure May's deal doesn't pass, we will move on to Norway Plus, a referendum or Remain. That's why I just cannot see them voting against. They would be entirely mad to reject the deal. I know some of them are, but not enough - surely! Here's hoping, though ;-)
I think you will get your wish. TMay’s deal will fall tonight. Probably. In extremis, parliament will vote for an extension, and a referendum, or Norway +.
Game theory suggests we will crash out, but in the end - surely - MPs will realize this is not a game.
My guess is that a lot of MPs who have been loyal to May and cannot countenance No Deal will feel that if the ERG votes the deal down again they are released of all previous obligations. May sat next to Junker last night when he said that this is the final offer. She said she passionately believed in it. It's this or nothing for Brexiteers. They surely have to realise this. Surely.
I don't like May, but she has effectively sacrificed her career to deliver a Brexit she didn't even vote for. If the Leave crew turn this one down, then they have abandoned Brexit over an issue of procedural fuckwittery.
Wasn't DAG being punted as a remoaner last night? He very obviously doesn't have the necessary movable principles or the self deceiving ability to spin on the tiniest coin of 'unilateral declaration' to become an honorable member.
He’s a total Remoaner who pretends to be a Leaver who is merely “interested in the legal issues”. It’s utter horseshit, he is desperate to see Brexit reversed; for some reason he is unable to admit it, but all his tweets - especially the unguarded late-night ones - underline this.
That doesn’t make his opinions worthless, however. He is often acute, and prescient.
To paraphrase his own words, he’s an instinctive Eurosceptics who nevertheless thinks Brexit is amazingly stupid, which is a position I think I might place myself if pushed:
As many posters are saying, something has changed. Nothing to do with the froth in Strasbourg, it's that for the first time we can see what happens next if this deal isn't passed - and it's not going to get any more palatable to a Brexit fan. That's the real change today.
Can imagine it in terms of a breakdown of parliamentary discipline.
Question though: does the EU's "no more, we've had enough" last night mean we're really at deal vs no-deal stage suddenly? There's been a presumption of an extension before today, but now a no really does become close to voting for no-deal.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
I don't think she's suspended from the House.
Which rather begs the question: why not?
Because the line is drawn at a custodial sentence of a year?
Personally, I understand why disqualifying MPs convicted of an offence (a la Singapore) might not be a great idea.
Wasn't DAG being punted as a remoaner last night? He very obviously doesn't have the necessary movable principles or the self deceiving ability to spin on the tiniest coin of 'unilateral declaration' to become an honorable member.
He’s a total Remoaner who pretends to be a Leaver who is merely “interested in the legal issues”. It’s utter horseshit, he is desperate to see Brexit reversed; for some reason he is unable to admit it, but all his tweets - especially the unguarded late-night ones - underline this.
That doesn’t make his opinions worthless, however. He is often acute, and prescient.
To paraphrase his own words, he’s an instinctive Eurosceptics who nevertheless thinks Brexit is amazingly stupid, which is a position I think I might place myself if pushed:
So when I said last night that he was a Remainer and Williamglenn tried to claim that was rubbish I was in fact right and once again William is talking out of his backside.
Wasn't DAG being punted as a remoaner last night? He very obviously doesn't have the necessary movable principles or the self deceiving ability to spin on the tiniest coin of 'unilateral declaration' to become an honorable member.
He’s a total Remoaner who pretends to be a Leaver who is merely “interested in the legal issues”. It’s utter horseshit, he is desperate to see Brexit reversed; for some reason he is unable to admit it, but all his tweets - especially the unguarded late-night ones - underline this.
That doesn’t make his opinions worthless, however. He is often acute, and prescient.
he does however have a habit of asserting his own opinion as a solicitor as legal truths not to be questioned.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
She may want the Deal to pass to minimise the chances of an early election. The image of her casting vote being denied due to the police dragging her away from the Aye lobby would be a wonderful metaphor, but there's almost zero chance of this.
One thing that puzzles me is why should any supporter of Remain, like Sam Gyimah, have a problem with the backstop? Surely, it has the effect of softening, rather than hardening, Brexit.
"I now consider that the legally binding provisions of the Joint Instrument and the content of the Unilateral Declaration reduce the risk that the United Kingdom could be indefinitely and involuntarily detained within the Protocol’s provisions at least in so far as that situation had been brought about by the bad faith or want of best endeavours of the EU.
However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement. "
He has described himself as a "recovering Conservative", so I think his views are quite different to what they were.
Given the current shitshow of incompetence that is the Conservative partyin government, I can imagine a fair few people find themselves in this position.
Maybe I’m just seeing the past through rose-coloured glasses & it was always this bad however.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
268-278 is a fair spread but the graph is double-peaked. If there's one thing I would predict, it's that there won't be around 270 Ayes. It could be around 220 or it could be around 310 but I think that if the DUP swing round, then a lot of the ERG, other sceptics from January (e.g. Brady), and some Labour MPs will switch too as a domino effect takes place and MPs ask themselves "can I really risk No Deal if *they've* come on board". Alternatively, the other scenario is that they say "nothing has changed", and so see no need to move first.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
I don't think she's suspended from the House.
Which rather begs the question: why not?
Because the line is drawn at a custodial sentence of a year?
Personally, I understand why disqualifying MPs convicted of an offence (a la Singapore) might not be a great idea.
No, a 1 year sentence (which in my opinion she should have got) would have disbarred her. Her sentence has triggered the recall mechanism. But surely she has brought the House into disrepute (admittedly a bit of a challenge but bear with me) and should be subject to disciplinary procedures whether she is recalled or not? No other even semi-professional body would overlook one of its members being convicted of an attempt to pervert the course of justice. It may be, of course, that being disciplined for lying is something politicians want to be careful about.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Labour abstentions could be key today.
To the result. They make no difference at all to the market in question, although obviously if a lot of Labour MPs abstain this will impact how others have to approach their own decisions.
I agree that the spread is right in mean terms. I suspect that the chance of the actual result being inside that bracket is pretty low.
Perhaps I am being dim but isn't the only way for May to get the Deal to pass is to say that if it doesn't it's no Brexit?
If Parliament wants to leave it's on this basis. If not, it's Remain.
Personally, were there a Referendum I would vote Remain now. I think to push through such a monumentally important decision on the basis of a forced vote with insufficient time to consider what has been agreed without there being proper debate on where next and on the basis of a red line which prioritises cancelling FoM over the majority of the economy without voters' explicit approval of this deal is the wrong way to do this. There is no proper consent. It won't last and the European question will continue to grumble on, poisoning our politics for years to come.
Rather than take back control we will find ourselves having to do not just what the EU tells us - without any input - but what a lot of other countries tell us to, also without any input. It will lead to an ongoing slow humiliation for the country.
Rushed forced decisions are very rarely good ones. I don't think this will be the exception.
On topic. Boris - just no.
Off topic. Cheltenham today. One good thing to look forward to.
I think it might end up at something like that. I don't think the DUP will play ball given Cox's conclusion, although I expect some Tory MPs will switch to supporting the deal.
Perhaps I am being dim but isn't the only way for May to get the Deal to pass is to say that if it doesn't it's no Brexit?
That's basically what's happening, except: 1) TMay is being careful to make sure she can blame the lack of Brexit on other people 2) Everybody's pretending that something about the agreement has changed to make it easier for brexit enthusiasts to fold
However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.
I think it might end up at something like that. I don't think the DUP will play ball given Cox's conclusion, although I expect some Tory MPs will switch to supporting the deal.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
I think it might end up at something like that. I don't think the DUP will play ball given Cox's conclusion, although I expect some Tory MPs will switch to supporting the deal.
I think it might end up at something like that. I don't think the DUP will play ball given Cox's conclusion, although I expect some Tory MPs will switch to supporting the deal.
So basically what May/Cox have achieved is protection from bad faith on the part of the EU seeking to hold us into the backstop by simply not agreeing anything but the risk of us simply not being able to agree anything, even in good faith, remains.
Not sure that is going to be enough for May but it is a pretty straight bat from Cox.
Perhaps I am being dim but isn't the only way for May to get the Deal to pass is to say that if it doesn't it's no Brexit?
Basically has been saying that for the last fortnight
Well, not really. No Deal is still there. That needs to be removed.
I fear that is still where we end up.
To be honest, I wonder whether if Britain were to revoke Article 50 now, there would be sighs of relief in the chancelleries of Europe or groans of despair. I'm beginning to think the latter.
"Nothing in his life became him like the leaving it."
That should have been Britain's motto when we embarked on Brexit. We might at least have got some credit for how we approached this. Instead, whatever happens, we have looked like fools. That reputation will continue to harm us long after the votes have been done.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughts
However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.
One thing that puzzles me is why should any supporter of Remain, like Sam Gyimah, have a problem with the backstop? Surely, it has the effect of softening, rather than hardening, Brexit.
From my pov, and presumably his as well (although I've no reason to assume this) this whole phase is passing me by - the backstop is the least of the problems with the deal. So probably more about his concerns not being addressed.
So basically what May/Cox have achieved is protection from bad faith on the part of the EU seeking to hold us into the backstop by simply not agreeing anything but the risk of us simply not being able to agree anything, even in good faith, remains.
Not sure that is going to be enough for May but it is a pretty straight bat from Cox.
It's a question of trust, isn't it. We have to trust the EU that they - like we - will want to get an FTA.
This whole issue has arisen because so many in the Tory party simply don't want to trust anything that comes out of Europe. It has become a bogeyman for them. And if they won't trust then no amount of legal wording will ever satisfy them.
Comments
Jonathan Freedland"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/12/once-again-theresa-may-tries-to-claim-victory-but-the-eu-have-conceded-next-to-nothing
Could choosing between summer or winter time all year round become as divisive as Brexit and put the union at risk......?!
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/changing-clocks-ireland-european-parliament-14088830
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1105419097339297793
He'll say basically what Lidlington said last night, legally binding, but suspension, no unilateral out, etc etc.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1105412356832669696?s=20
It would be very strange to say the least if Cox has negotiated a deal he himself can't legally support?
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1105419029265739777
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHw4GER-MiE
(Completely off-topic, but if you want a thrilling modern Catholic mass, Yves Castagnet's 'Messe Salve Regina' is stunning. Real turn-it-up-to-11 stuff.)
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
But it is a silly list anyway, apart from the obvious top five or six. German cuisine better than Singaporean? Really? Currywurst better than laksa?
And Turkish cuisine better than Vietnamese??!!
Vietnamese should be in the top 3.
AND I TRAVEL THE WORLD EATING LOTS FOR A LIVING SO I KNOW, SO THERE
https://twitter.com/Geoffrey_Cox/status/1105393787243778053
Damian Collins,
Sam Gyimah,
Andrea Jenkyns.
Presumably Anne Marie Morris as she was the one Brexiteer who didn't go with Brady? Have I missed any?
If that list stays a trickle, there's a chance that 15 Labour MPs dive in and save the deal. As soon as you've got 20 or so on the list, they won't bother and it's doomed.
As many posters are saying, something has changed. Nothing to do with the froth in Strasbourg, it's that for the first time we can see what happens next if this deal isn't passed - and it's not going to get any more palatable to a Brexit fan. That's the real change today.
Good Thai food is very good, but there's a lot of crap that's marketed as Thai food in this country.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/874527377111515137
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
The country doesn't want No Deal.
How many of them are stupid enough to jump?
Question though: does the EU's "no more, we've had enough" last night mean we're really at deal vs no-deal stage suddenly? There's been a presumption of an extension before today, but now a no really does become close to voting for no-deal.
Personally, I understand why disqualifying MPs convicted of an offence (a la Singapore) might not be a great idea.
One thing that puzzles me is why should any supporter of Remain, like Sam Gyimah, have a problem with the backstop? Surely, it has the effect of softening, rather than hardening, Brexit.
However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement. "
Maybe I’m just seeing the past through rose-coloured glasses & it was always this bad however.
I agree that the spread is right in mean terms. I suspect that the chance of the actual result being inside that bracket is pretty low.
It's all very unclear.......
If Parliament wants to leave it's on this basis. If not, it's Remain.
Personally, were there a Referendum I would vote Remain now. I think to push through such a monumentally important decision on the basis of a forced vote with insufficient time to consider what has been agreed without there being proper debate on where next and on the basis of a red line which prioritises cancelling FoM over the majority of the economy without voters' explicit approval of this deal is the wrong way to do this. There is no proper consent. It won't last and the European question will continue to grumble on, poisoning our politics for years to come.
Rather than take back control we will find ourselves having to do not just what the EU tells us - without any input - but what a lot of other countries tell us to, also without any input. It will lead to an ongoing slow humiliation for the country.
Rushed forced decisions are very rarely good ones. I don't think this will be the exception.
On topic. Boris - just no.
Off topic. Cheltenham today. One good thing to look forward to.
1) TMay is being careful to make sure she can blame the lack of Brexit on other people
2) Everybody's pretending that something about the agreement has changed to make it easier for brexit enthusiasts to fold
I suspect the last paragraph will scupper it for the DUP, and that in turn will sink the deal. But who knows.
What we have learned is that a lot of them are looking for an excuse to blink.
How does that possibly get to 320? Even 300, maybe a threshold for MV3 next, seems a stretch.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/785188/190312_-_Legal_Opinion_on_Joint_Instrument_and_Unilateral_Declaration_co..___2_.pdf
The AG agrees with BJO
https://twitter.com/NatashaC
Not sure that is going to be enough for May but it is a pretty straight bat from Cox.
I fear that is still where we end up.
To be honest, I wonder whether if Britain were to revoke Article 50 now, there would be sighs of relief in the chancelleries of Europe or groans of despair. I'm beginning to think the latter.
"Nothing in his life became him like the leaving it."
That should have been Britain's motto when we embarked on Brexit. We might at least have got some credit for how we approached this. Instead, whatever happens, we have looked like fools. That reputation will continue to harm us long after the votes have been done.
Is this another **** up from May and Robbins?
I'm pissed off and angry. I was backing this last night and this morning but that's it!
I'm absolutely livid this has come to pass. Enough is enough May must go NOW!
This whole issue has arisen because so many in the Tory party simply don't want to trust anything that comes out of Europe. It has become a bogeyman for them. And if they won't trust then no amount of legal wording will ever satisfy them.