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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has the ERG won?
The sight of long-standing opponents of the EU voting on Tuesday against leaving the EU because May’s Withdrawal Agreement was not “proper Brexit” must have infuriated those MPs who voted for the deal despite not wishing to leave the EU. Ken Clarke, for instance.
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It’s the only deal on the table and I don’t reckon many MPs would have the balls to prevent Brexit.
If you are a Leaver, you didn't vote for damage limitation. You voted to make things better. All the practical downsides either don't exist, have nothing to do with Brexit, or are somebody else's fault. So why should you leave an organisation, where you have a say to a situation where that organisation simply tells what to do and you have no say? That wasn't what you voted for.
Can you see that happening? It'll be no deal.
I'm off to do a big shop before weekend. A big shop.
But the deal is dead. MV4 is already been talked of because MV3 might also fail, which is telling. Plus Bercow looking to become a remainer hero.
Oh wait...
GE time.
Thankfully it turned out okay . The ERG continue to live in denial . And they either back May or end up with a soft Brexit or no Brexit .
And those 17 abstentions in the cabinet could turn to votes against in future.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1105938237607067648?s=21
With the exception of Boris becoming PM.
I have my doubts, big doubts.
Another possibility: some ERG members deciding to support a 2nd referendum in preference to voting for a deal they don't support. That would put them in the same camp as a lot of Labour MPs, and would be yet another unexpected alliance.
The ERG don’t seem to realize the games up.
Independent Group MP Anna Soubry says the government has a "pitiful lack of leadership".
"The prime minister just doesn't listen," she adds.
May is acting "like a robot" and prepared to "batter people into submission" to get her deal through, she adds.
Having a second referendum is "the only way through it," she says.
"The prime minister's stubbornness [is] not good for our country."
Parliament has taken back control...! This was a decision given to the people, the people spoke and MPs are just carrying out a banana republic coup d'etat. How can you seriously believe you are a democrat ?
He seems to have been trained to aim at his own feet, and pull the trigger repeatedly.
Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).
Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.
But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.
Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.
By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.
2. Permanent Single Market not on the table and isn't going to be offered now. See point 1
3. MPs May vote to revoke in closing days. But no way to force May to act on it with ERG shielding her
Conservative George Freeman is one of those Conservative MPs who abstained on the amended motion, defying the government's orders.
He tells BBC News that a general election is coming.
"We lost three MPs last month, we lost 30 MPs in the last election," he says.
"This is only going in one direction and we need to start to prepare for that."
How exactly does having a GE, now, help you not head in a direction of losing more MPs?
The ERG are unhinged and are busy killing off their own dream .
Speaking to the BBC, the Scottish Secretary David Mundell says: "The Cabinet should now act on the will of the House - that is to deliver our exit from the EU with a deal."
"The prime minster has my full support in that," he adds.
When asked if he should be sacked for not voting with the government, Mr Mundell said: "If you vote against the government, as some ministers did, you resign and accept responsibility for doing that.
"I did not vote against the government."
Both the back boxes have been retrieved after the Boeing 737Max crash the other day. The Ethiopian authorities are so happy with the way the Americans and Boeing have handled things so far they're sending the boxes to be analysed at BEA.
Which is in Paris.
Yes, the home country of Boeing's biggest rival (it sounds like we were in the running for it as well).
That's got to hurt the pride of Boeing and the FAA.
And in related news, the scuttlebut is that data from another satellite system shows the flight had a very similar profile to the one that crashed at the end of last year, and it was this info that caused Canada and the US to finally stop flights.
Parliament voted to let the people decide by referendum. They didn't like the result so refused to allow the it to stand. When the MPs knowingly lie to the people they need changing. Yes, I know they always do, but not so brazenly.
Do you think the people will say "OK, you know best. Just tell us how to vote next time."
They daren't revoke, and a second referendum is ordering them to vote the correct way this time. Assuming people didn't abstain (what's the point), a Leave win would be ignored the same way and a Remain vote would be taken as gospel. What would that solve? It would add fuel to the flames.
Think of all those Labour MPs going back to their Northern constituencies and trying to explain having another vote or a revocation.
If this were Star Trek, the ERG would be either species 8472 or the Jem Hadar, probably the latter.
https://twitter.com/Jampa9/status/1105933684845236225
Brexit an open goal.
So if MV3 fails and we're requesting a longer extension anyway, why not tack on EUref2 to MV4. Which would also get around the "can't keep bringing substantively the same thing back again" thing. If MV3 fails then surely it's the only way May's deal can have any chance at all of being accepted.
If it is going to be down for a while we might have time to sneak in General Election that they don't interfere with.
Or a 2nd referendum.
Leaving the club but we still do actually want to play golf is damage limitation. As a visitor you play less golf, pay more for it potentially and have to play when no-one else wants to.
The media narrative is now over the complete shambles in the Commons . Brexiters attempts to blame the EU I agree have bitten the dust .
Time for head to meet pillow, more Parliamentary shenanigans to follow tomorrow.
Ajax (NED)
Juventus (ITA)
Manchester City (ENG)
Manchester United (ENG)
Porto (POR)
Tottenham Hotspur (ENG)
Barcelona (ESP)
Liverpool (ENG)
2. It would be as a concession from our side with full free movement, however Macron may demand EUref2 Remain v Deal for an extension, he has been working with Blair on this and the Commons would vote for that over No Deal too, tonight's vote is entirely in accordance with the Macron-Blair plan to reverse Brexit.
3. May herself made clear yesterday she would let Parliament decide on all options if they continue to oppose her Deal, including revoking Brexit completely
It's a view...
Good night.
May I ask if you trust the EU to act in good faith? If you do, the May deal is acceptable. I'm cynical about politicians but I'd prefer it to be our own gobshites making the decision rather than European gobshites who we have no control over.
I suspect I'm not alone in that. I'd go along with Mrs May's deal because the European gobshites won't be able to stop themselves making things much worse.
Edit: But I'm a softish Leaver.
He talks like an idiotic Twitter troll.
Another in a long list of reasons for a second vote which are bollocks, and not in the least bit illogical. The good reason for one, the overwhelming one, is that the Commons is unable to make a decision and so needs to ask the people again.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6806033/Ex-Liberal-leader-Lord-Steel-admits-knew-Sir-Cyril-Smith-abused-children.html