Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on a Peterborough by election in 2019

24

Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Moreover it won’t be 75. It will be a smaller number next time. Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson have painted themselves into a corner.

    David Davis jumped out earlier. He, and perhaps Esther McVey, now look better placed.
    I would prefer to vote for a random potato that David Davis. In fact I'd try to sneak around and vote twice.

    Why potato? What have you got against them that you compare them to David Davis?
    I humbly apologies to all potatoes.
    Enough of your floury compliments, sir!
    You're talking a charlotte of nonsense tonight!
    I just wanted to chip in.
    I have skin in this game.
    Your a salt upon our punning game will not succeed.
    Really? I'll Smash it out the park.....
    Another bad pun to grain at.
    Tuber 'etter up you're game if you want the last pun! (Pretty damned smug about that one)
    You mayo have the upper hand for a minute, but I'll be back in a minute or tu, now.
    Referee! Clear eggy foul!
    Now you're just complaining at getting a roasting.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    MaxPB said:

    I really think that the PM has been awful with the messaging, too many people (MPs included) believe that the WA is the end state.

    I agree, it seems that the majority of people think that the transition is the deal, when the free trade deal (plus whatever solves the border issue) is yet to be negotiated.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Moreover it won’t be 75. It will be a smaller number next time. Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson have painted themselves into a corner.

    David Davis jumped out earlier. He, and perhaps Esther McVey, now look better placed.
    I would prefer to vote for a random potato that David Davis. In fact I'd try to sneak around and vote twice.

    Why potato? What have you got against them that you compare them to David Davis?
    I humbly apologies to all potatoes.
    Enough of your floury compliments, sir!
    You're talking a charlotte of nonsense tonight!
    I just wanted to chip in.
    I have skin in this game.
    Your a salt upon our punning game will not succeed.
    Really? I'll Smash it out the park.....
    Another bad pun to grain at.
    Tuber 'etter up you're game if you want the last pun! (Pretty damned smug about that one)
    You mayo have the upper hand for a minute, but I'll be back in a minute or tu, now.
    Referee! Clear eggy foul!
    Now you're just complaining at getting a roasting.
    Much as I'd love to engage, I think it'd be a Poultry use of an evening.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Omnium said:

    I would prefer to vote for a random potato that David Davis. In fact I'd try to sneak around and vote twice.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1107268777253785600
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Moreover it won’t be 75. It will be a smaller number next time. Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson have painted themselves into a corner.

    David Davis jumped out earlier. He, and perhaps Esther McVey, now look better placed.
    Even a lot of the grassroots are concluding that the WA is better than no Brexit.
    Yes, even though I'm in a London constituency I can see the mood among my WhatsApp group has changed from against the WA to in favour in the last week or so. A few were won over by the bad faith concessions from the EU and loads were won over by Parliament voting down no deal, they feel the default option has become no brexit.

    Additionally, it seems to finally have dawned on these idiots that the WA is temporary and if the EU tries to make it permanent against our will we now have recourse to exit.


    I really think that the PM has been awful with the messaging, too many people (MPs included) believe that the WA is the end state.
    FTFY.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    MaxPB said:

    I really think that the PM has been awful with the messaging, too many people (MPs included) believe that the WA is the end state.

    I think she has been awful too, but I will defend her on that score. Random people thinking that, fine, but MPs have been told enough times what the situation is. Any who say things that indicate they think that are either lying for political effect, or incredibly stupid and it is not her fault they don't realise the situation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Moreover it won’t be 75. It will be a smaller number next time. Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson have painted themselves into a corner.

    David Davis jumped out earlier. He, and perhaps Esther McVey, now look better placed.
    I would prefer to vote for a random potato that David Davis. In fact I'd try to sneak around and vote twice.

    Why potato? What have you got against them that you compare them to David Davis?
    I humbly apologies to all potatoes.
    Enough of your floury compliments, sir!
    You're talking a charlotte of nonsense tonight!
    I just wanted to chip in.
    I have skin in this game.
    Your a salt upon our punning game will not succeed.
    Really? I'll Smash it out the park.....
    Another bad pun to grain at.
    Tuber 'etter up you're game if you want the last pun! (Pretty damned smug about that one)
    You mayo have the upper hand for a minute, but I'll be back in a minute or tu, now.
    Referee! Clear eggy foul!
    Now you're just complaining at getting a roasting.
    Much as I'd love to engage, I think it'd be a Poultry use of an evening.
    I knew you'd chicken out :smile:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Cyclefree said:

    justin124 said:

    I have been deeply affected this week by the news regarding David Steel and his suspension from LibDem membership following his behaviour in 1979 re-Cyril Smith. Whilst I have never been a Liberal, I have always thought of Steel as a genuine 'good' man - in the same way as I rated Charles Kennedy. He seemed to be in politics for the right reasons, and my memory of him stretches back to the late 1960s when as a very young MP he was prominent in the Anti - Apartheid Campaign with others such as Peter Hain. In those days, I often felt he would have fitted in better as a member of the Labour Party. Like Gordon Brown he is a son of the Manse, and I have assumed that his code of ethics would have been largely determined by that background. It has been very difficult for me to come to terms with the fact that such a person could have remained silent when faced with the evidence presented to him of the evil abusive behaviour of Cyril Smith. How could he possibly have placed the political interests of the Liberal Party before the need to provide justice to Smith's victims?

    There is little honourable about it but is a very common human reaction. Standing by while evil happens is, I am sorry to say, the default in most humans. Heroes, those who speak up, who act, who march towards the sound of gunfire (metaphorically) rather than away from it are rare beasts. Courage - whether moral or physical - is admired because it is rare.
    That's true, but is always saddening when even in a situation such as that described by Steel, even then he just did not care in the slightest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I really think that the PM has been awful with the messaging, too many people (MPs included) believe that the WA is the end state.

    I think she has been awful too, but I will defend her on that score. Random people thinking that, fine, but MPs have been told enough times what the situation is. Any who say things that indicate they think that are either lying for political effect, or incredibly stupid and it is not her fault they don't realise the situation.
    Yes it is. The buck stops with her.

    Quite frankly Tony Blair with the build up to the Iraq War spent months/years building the case, pushing for it, arguing front and center both in the Chamber and on the media. Whatever the rights or wrongs of Iraq, he argued passionately and forcefully for it and carried the House in the end (in large part thanks to opposition MPs of course).

    Theresa May in the build up to these votes has been alternatively invisible and condescending. Basically acting with an attitude "this is the deal, its the only one, I don't care what you think about it - now vote for it".

    That's no way to lead.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Scott_P said:
    Our next female Prime minister has spoken.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Is MV3 even still happening? Seems like there needs to be far more public changing of minds to make it a viable propsect.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Our next female Prime minister has spoken.
    LOL!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Our next female Prime minister has spoken.
    I do hope so!
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    H
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Our next female Prime minister has spoken.
    The drugs do work.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    That Peston tweet is hilarious if true .

    By winning over the DUP she could alienate the ERG but because so much emphasis has been placed on the DUP by the media and in the eyes of the general public May might think it would now look terrible for the ERG to pull the plug .


  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Reading that, I think we have passed the point where saying that a second referendum would be undemocratic sounded a bit counter-intuitive. It now makes you sound completely unhinged.
    Intriguing that Boris and Keir Starmer are having such a good war. If the Tories were led by Boris and Labour by Keir, how would people here vote? HYUFD for Boris, maybe Philip, Sean F?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,962
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Our next female Prime minister has spoken.
    Are you saying we will have a sequence of six male Prime Ministers?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I really think that the PM has been awful with the messaging, too many people (MPs included) believe that the WA is the end state.

    I think she has beeey don't realise the situation.
    Yes it is. The buck stops with her.

    Quite frankly Tony Blair with the build up to the Iraq War spent months/years building the case, pushing for it, arguing front and center both in the Chamber and on the media. Whatever the rights or wrongs of Iraq, he argued passionately and forcefully for it and carried the House in the end (in large part thanks to opposition MPs of course).

    Theresa May in the build up to these votes has been alternatively invisible and condescending. Basically acting with an attitude "this is the deal, its the only one, I don't care what you think about it - now vote for it".

    That's no way to lead.
    I don't see how that counters my point at all. The ';buck stops with her' is a stupid thing to suggest in this context. I don't care how much a lot of this is Theresa May's fault, the point was that she has explained, and others have explained, that the WA is not the end state, a million times. No matter how badly she has done, no matter how bad her tactics, she and others have explained that. And no MP who doesn't understand that point can say that they were not told.

    Honestly, I am amazed you even think that because May has led so poorly on this that means she is responsible for the lack of comprehension of MPs. It's astonishing, frankly. You have so little respect for our MPs that you think even after being

    If someone says 'the fire is hot' a thousands times and so bozo sticks their hand in it, yes they could have done a better job of warning that person, but it's still the fault of the person sticking their hand in the fire.

    You seem to be obsessed with the fact that the deal is bad and she has done a bad job selling it. But that is irrelevant to the point that on a basic issue of fact she has told them the situation. This isn't a matter of interpretation or her miscommunication. It would be pretending to not understand or being thick.

    In short, while I called it a defence of her, it really wasn't. She has a lot to take the blame for in all of this. But people lying about not understanding a point of fact, or still not getting it?

    Sorry, that's just being bloody unreasonable. Not least because there's no way some of the people who don't seem to understand the point about the WA must be lying about that, since there's no way they all don't understand. She's messed up so much, but she cannot prevent people pretending to not understand something so simple.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Our next female Prime minister has spoken.
    And Layla Moran has apparently said something as well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    If people describe the DUP potentially changing position as capitulating they'll refuse to change position out of sheer bloody mindedness.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Reading that, I think we have passed the point where saying that a second referendum would be undemocratic sounded a bit counter-intuitive. It now makes you sound completely unhinged.
    Intriguing that Boris and Keir Starmer are having such a good war. If the Tories were led by Boris and Labour by Keir, how would people here vote? HYUFD for Boris, maybe Philip, Sean F?
    You think? It seems to me that Boris has had a torrid time and looks increasingly irrelevant ever since he resigned as FS. Starmer looked like a major player early on but seems to me to have got lost in the ever more bizarre contortions of Labour’s position brought about by Corbyn. He has been pretty quiet, effectively side lined of late.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    edited March 2019
    So the EU would take back control.......

    No sentient being would change their position in the basis of a "promise" from Mrs May....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547
    I don't think that was very good. From the information we have at the moment, there will be many causal factors for the Indonesian crash (it's far too early to say for the Ethiopian), but at its heart will be a software issues. The regulatory, business and engineering decisions that led to that software being in the state it was will hopefully be investigated, but the main cause of that first crash was, IMO, software.

    "Nowhere in here is there a software problem. The computers & software performed their jobs according to spec without error. The specification was just shitty."

    He's making quite an assumption there - we don't know if there were software bugs or not. But even if there was not, it appears the software's behaviour caused the pilots to fly the plane into the ground. It was a software issue. But the question is why the software was in the state it was.

    "Boeing sells an option package that includes an extra AoA vane, and an AoA disagree light, which lets pilots know that this problem was happening. "

    From the little I know about this, he's referring to SouthWestern Airlines, who installed an indicator on the plane to help its pilots. The rumour is that the ability to do this was strongly resisted by Boeing, but SWA insisted. Being only sold that package under duress.

    I also don't like the assumptions about other causal factors that may, or may not, be proved true in either flight, yet alone both.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265

    justin124 said:


    (snip to fit)

    The affair has affected my family relationships too. I have a female cousin - half a generation my senior - who shared my distant relationship to the Headmaster , but who knew him socially much better and was his secretary for his final two years. She is also a former Mayoress of the town - her husband having been Mayor in 1981/82 - and was later Clerk to the Community Council. She sent me a message on Facebook to the effect that she was appalled by my comments and asked me not to visit her when next in the area. I view her as part of the Local Establishment content to cover up such unwelcome details.
    Going back to David Steel, I feel I have taken the other path to him - in that I have sought to put empathy for the victims before personal expediency. I do as though - Am I missing something here? Am I wrong? Very happy to receive comments - however critical or damning!

    Must have been difficult to share this. For what it is worth I think you did the right thing, but always hard when family are involved, even indirectly.
    Yes, I agree - I think you were courageous, partly because the sort of backlash you experienced is a hazard of speaking up and one reason why so many choose not to do so. Being right is sometimes cold comfort, but you were right nonetheless.

    I feel as you do about Steel - genuinely shocked. Some of the reports are not quite accurate, in that Smith didn't confess to him, merely confirmed he'd been investigated. So although Steel got the impression (he doesn't say how) he was guilty, it's perhaps understandable that he didn't feel he could tell the police about his opinion. But how he could have had him continue to sit alongside and later get a knighthood is completely incomprehensible.

    We are at least in that respect much tougher these days. MPs, including MPs fiercely loyal to their leadership, are being suspended for over-enthusiastic hugs and tiresomely persistent suggestions to fellow-adults. I'm not saying they shouldn't be suspended while the matter is investigated, but certainly such behaviour pales compared with Smith. Indeed the Peterborough MP's sins seem trivial by comparison, but she's on the point of being hounded out of politics and her career.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    So the EU would take back control.......

    No sentient being would change their position in the basis of a "promise" from Mrs May....
    We’ve already done that. It’s why the backstop applies to the whole of the UK not just NI. Not really sure what Pesto is talking about.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589
    Dont know if anyone has posted this link, but as Seattle is a Boeing town, it’s likely on the money.
    Worth reading in full.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/failed-certification-faa-missed-safety-issues-in-the-737-max-system-implicated-in-the-lion-air-crash/
    The FAA, citing lack of funding and resources, has over the years delegated increasing authority to Boeing to take on more of the work of certifying the safety of its own airplanes.

    Early on in certification of the 737 MAX, the FAA safety engineering team divided up the technical assessments that would be delegated to Boeing versus those they considered more critical and would be retained within the FAA.

    But several FAA technical experts said in interviews that as certification proceeded, managers prodded them to speed the process. Development of the MAX was lagging nine months behind the rival Airbus A320neo. Time was of the essence for Boeing.

    A former FAA safety engineer who was directly involved in certifying the MAX said that halfway through the certification process, “we were asked by management to re-evaluate what would be delegated. Management thought we had retained too much at the FAA.”

    “There was constant pressure to re-evaluate our initial decisions,” the former engineer said. “And even after we had reassessed it … there was continued discussion by management about delegating even more items down to the Boeing Company.”....


    ....The discrepancy over this number is magnified by another element in the System Safety Analysis: The limit of the system’s authority to move the tail applies each time MCAS is triggered. And it can be triggered multiple times, as it was on the Lion Air flight.

    One current FAA safety engineer said that every time the pilots on the Lion Air flight reset the switches on their control columns to pull the nose back up, MCAS would have kicked in again and “allowed new increments of 2.5 degrees.”

    “So once they pushed a couple of times, they were at full stop,” meaning at the full extent of the tail swivel, he said.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    justin124 said:


    (snip to fit)

    The affair has affected my family relationships too. I have a female cousin - half a generation my senior - who shared my distant relationship to the Headmaster , but who knew him socially much better and was his secretary for his final two years. She is also a former Mayoress of the town - her husband having been Mayor in 1981/82 - and was later Clerk to the Community Council. She sent me a message on Facebook to the effect that she was appalled by my comments and asked me not to visit her when next in the area. I view her as part of the Local Establishment content to cover up such unwelcome details.
    Going back to David Steel, I feel I have taken the other path to him - in that I have sought to put empathy for the victims before personal expediency. I do as though - Am I missing something here? Am I wrong? Very happy to receive comments - however critical or damning!

    Must have been difficult to share this. For what it is worth I think you did the right thing, but always hard when family are involved, even indirectly.
    Yes, I agree - I think you were courageous, partly because the sort of backlash you experienced is a hazard of speaking up and one reason why so many choose not to do so. Being right is sometimes cold comfort, but you were right nonetheless.

    I feel as you do about Steel - genuinely shocked. Some of the reports are not quite accurate, in that Smith didn't confess to him, merely confirmed he'd been investigated. So although Steel got the impression (he doesn't say how) he was guilty, it's perhaps understandable that he didn't feel he could tell the police about his opinion. But how he could have had him continue to sit alongside and later get a knighthood is completely incomprehensible.

    We are at least in that respect much tougher these days. MPs, including MPs fiercely loyal to their leadership, are being suspended for over-enthusiastic hugs and tiresomely persistent suggestions to fellow-adults. I'm not saying they shouldn't be suspended while the matter is investigated, but certainly such behaviour pales compared with Smith. Indeed the Peterborough MP's sins seem trivial by comparison, but she's on the point of being hounded out of politics and her career.
    I confess to being both shocked and disappointed with David Steel who always struck me as a decent sort. As you rightly point out even if he just had suspicions and nothing concrete the nomination for a knighthood was a serious lapse of judgment.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    DavidL said:

    So the EU would take back control.......

    No sentient being would change their position in the basis of a "promise" from Mrs May....
    We’ve already done that. It’s why the backstop applies to the whole of the UK not just NI. Not really sure what Pesto is talking about.
    He”ll be talking the usual mix of hit and hope. SOP when not being fed lines by Brown/Balls. A living example of being promotrd several steps beyond his skillset.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    I feel as you do about Steel - genuinely shocked. Some of the reports are not quite accurate, in that Smith didn't confess to him, merely confirmed he'd been investigated. So although Steel got the impression (he doesn't say how) he was guilty, it's perhaps understandable that he didn't feel he could tell the police about his opinion. But how he could have had him continue to sit alongside and later get a knighthood is completely incomprehensible.

    It is of course true that such evidence would be inadmissible in a police investigation as it would be considered hearsay.

    But at the same time it should have ruled him out of a knighthood and seen him dropped as a Liberal candidate.

    Again, we come back to the fact that far too many people either didn't see it as a big deal, or paradoxically, saw closing down a scandal as more important.

    Steel seems to have been another such.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    FPT:

    F1: post-race ramble about an interesting race and green weekend is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2019.html

    FYI comments on your blog are broken, I wrote a long one and had it eaten. Twice.

    The tl:dr version is that Ferrari missed a trick - and handed a net two points to Mercedes in the all-important Constructors’ Championship - by not having Leclerc take a free pit stop and go for the fastest lap at the end on fresh tyres.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    That’s actually quite good. Unusually for comments on aviation, it even seems to be mostly accurate too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Sandpit said:

    That’s actually quite good. Unusually for comments on aviation, it even seems to be mostly accurate too.
    It's quite long for 'Boeing made so many damn changes the aircraft wasn't airworthy,' though.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Sandpit said:

    That’s actually quite good. Unusually for comments on aviation, it even seems to be mostly accurate too.
    The commentators are a mix of weapons grade bollocks and tinfoil shittery.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547
    Nigelb said:

    Dont know if anyone has posted this link, but as Seattle is a Boeing town, it’s likely on the money.
    Worth reading in full.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/failed-certification-faa-missed-safety-issues-in-the-737-max-system-implicated-in-the-lion-air-crash/
    The FAA, citing lack of funding and resources, has over the years delegated increasing authority to Boeing to take on more of the work of certifying the safety of its own airplanes.

    Early on in certification of the 737 MAX, the FAA safety engineering team divided up the technical assessments that would be delegated to Boeing versus those they considered more critical and would be retained within the FAA.

    But several FAA technical experts said in interviews that as certification proceeded, managers prodded them to speed the process. Development of the MAX was lagging nine months behind the rival Airbus A320neo. Time was of the essence for Boeing.

    A former FAA safety engineer who was directly involved in certifying the MAX said that halfway through the certification process, “we were asked by management to re-evaluate what would be delegated. Management thought we had retained too much at the FAA.”

    “There was constant pressure to re-evaluate our initial decisions,” the former engineer said. “And even after we had reassessed it … there was continued discussion by management about delegating even more items down to the Boeing Company.”....


    ....The discrepancy over this number is magnified by another element in the System Safety Analysis: The limit of the system’s authority to move the tail applies each time MCAS is triggered. And it can be triggered multiple times, as it was on the Lion Air flight.

    One current FAA safety engineer said that every time the pilots on the Lion Air flight reset the switches on their control columns to pull the nose back up, MCAS would have kicked in again and “allowed new increments of 2.5 degrees.”

    “So once they pushed a couple of times, they were at full stop,” meaning at the full extent of the tail swivel, he said.

    AIUI the 787 was also certified under a similar new process, and also had to be grounded after its battery woes.

    Boeing's had two new aircraft types grounded in six years. That's an indication that type acceptance and certification might be a big issue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    So the EU would take back control.......

    No sentient being would change their position in the basis of a "promise" from Mrs May....
    We’ve already done that. It’s why the backstop applies to the whole of the UK not just NI. Not really sure what Pesto is talking about.
    He”ll be talking the usual mix of hit and hope. SOP when not being fed lines by Brown/Balls. A living example of being promotrd several steps beyond his skillset.
    He really seems to have a very limited understanding of....pretty much everything.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,755
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Moreover it won’t be 75. It will be a smaller number next time. Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson have painted themselves into a corner.

    David Davis jumped out earlier. He, and perhaps Esther McVey, now look better placed.
    I would prefer to vote for a random potato that David Davis. In fact I'd try to sneak around and vote twice.

    Why potato? What have you got against them that you compare them to David Davis?
    I humbly apologies to all potatoes.
    Enough of your floury compliments, sir!
    You're talking a charlotte of nonsense tonight!
    I just wanted to chip in.
    I have skin in this game.
    Your a salt upon our punning game will not succeed.
    Really? I'll Smash it out the park.....
    Another bad pun to grain at.
    Tuber 'etter up you're game if you want the last pun! (Pretty damned smug about that one)
    You mayo have the upper hand for a minute, but I'll be back in a minute or tu, now.
    Referee! Clear eggy foul!
    Now you're just complaining at getting a roasting.
    I demand an expert Royal opinion - let’s see what the Dauphin knows!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    I don't see how that counters my point at all. The ';buck stops with her' is a stupid thing to suggest in this context. I don't care how much a lot of this is Theresa May's fault, the point was that she has explained, and others have explained, that the WA is not the end state, a million times. No matter how badly she has done, no matter how bad her tactics, she and others have explained that. And no MP who doesn't understand that point can say that they were not told.

    Honestly, I am amazed you even think that because May has led so poorly on this that means she is responsible for the lack of comprehension of MPs. It's astonishing, frankly. You have so little respect for our MPs that you think even after being

    If someone says 'the fire is hot' a thousands times and so bozo sticks their hand in it, yes they could have done a better job of warning that person, but it's still the fault of the person sticking their hand in the fire.

    You seem to be obsessed with the fact that the deal is bad and she has done a bad job selling it. But that is irrelevant to the point that on a basic issue of fact she has told them the situation. This isn't a matter of interpretation or her miscommunication. It would be pretending to not understand or being thick.

    In short, while I called it a defence of her, it really wasn't. She has a lot to take the blame for in all of this. But people lying about not understanding a point of fact, or still not getting it?

    Sorry, that's just being bloody unreasonable. Not least because there's no way some of the people who don't seem to understand the point about the WA must be lying about that, since there's no way they all don't understand. She's messed up so much, but she cannot prevent people pretending to not understand something so simple.

    Tbe WA is a potential end state as the Attorney General's legal advice has shown. That is the problem, the backstop-as-endstate risks.

    MPs aren't lacking comprehension when the Attorney General himself is saying that the UK could have no internationally lawful way to exit the Protocol if an agreement can't be made.

    MPs have generally said if the risk of a perpetual backstop can be removed then they would ratify the deal. Expectations on the deal passing last time plummetted because there was no change to the legal risks of it being perpetual. So simply saying "this is temporary [but could last forever though we hope it won't]" is not good enough.

    Your analogy is weak. If someone says "fire is hot" then proceeds to attempt to set fire to the curtains only to be prevented by others who don't fancy seeing their house burnt down, that seems a better analogy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589

    Nigelb said:

    Dont know if anyone has posted this link, but as Seattle is a Boeing town, it’s likely on the money.
    Worth reading in full.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/failed-certification-faa-missed-safety-issues-in-the-737-max-system-implicated-in-the-lion-air-crash/
    The FAA, citing lack of funding and resources, has over the years delegated increasing authority to Boeing to take on more of the work of certifying the safety of its own airplanes.

    Early on in certification of the 737 MAX, the FAA safety engineering team divided up the technical assessments that would be delegated to Boeing versus those they considered more critical and would be retained within the FAA.

    But several FAA technical experts said in interviews that as certification proceeded, managers prodded them to speed the process. Development of the MAX was lagging nine months behind the rival Airbus A320neo. Time was of the essence for Boeing.

    A former FAA safety engineer who was directly involved in certifying the MAX said that halfway through the certification process, “we were asked by management to re-evaluate what would be delegated. Management thought we had retained too much at the FAA.”

    “There was constant pressure to re-evaluate our initial decisions,” the former engineer said. “And even after we had reassessed it … there was continued discussion by management about delegating even more items down to the Boeing Company.”....


    ....The discrepancy over this number is magnified by another element in the System Safety Analysis: The limit of the system’s authority to move the tail applies each time MCAS is triggered. And it can be triggered multiple times, as it was on the Lion Air flight.

    One current FAA safety engineer said that every time the pilots on the Lion Air flight reset the switches on their control columns to pull the nose back up, MCAS would have kicked in again and “allowed new increments of 2.5 degrees.”

    “So once they pushed a couple of times, they were at full stop,” meaning at the full extent of the tail swivel, he said.

    AIUI the 787 was also certified under a similar new process, and also had to be grounded after its battery woes.

    Boeing's had two new aircraft types grounded in six years. That's an indication that type acceptance and certification might be a big issue.
    The suggestion that they downplayed what might have been a significant hazard has the potential to be damning.

    “A hazardous failure mode depending on a single sensor, I don’t think passes muster,” said Lemme.

    Like all 737s, the MAX actually has two of the sensors, one on each side of the fuselage near the cockpit. But the MCAS was designed to take a reading from only one of them...

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    If that happened I think the EU27 would be quite justified in saying, OK both us and you have two years to properly prepare for you leaving the EU with no deal. That's what we'll be doing. Good luck with yours.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Two drunks holding each other up: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47602571

    Do people still talk about national champions? How incredibly quaint.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    So the EU would take back control.......

    No sentient being would change their position in the basis of a "promise" from Mrs May....
    We’ve already done that. It’s why the backstop applies to the whole of the UK not just NI. Not really sure what Pesto is talking about.
    He”ll be talking the usual mix of hit and hope. SOP when not being fed lines by Brown/Balls. A living example of being promotrd several steps beyond his skillset.
    He really seems to have a very limited understanding of....pretty much everything.
    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1107364230280503296
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    edited March 2019

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    So the EU would take back control.......

    No sentient being would change their position in the basis of a "promise" from Mrs May....
    We’ve already done that. It’s why the backstop applies to the whole of the UK not just NI. Not really sure what Pesto is talking about.
    He”ll be talking the usual mix of hit and hope. SOP when not being fed lines by Brown/Balls. A living example of being promotrd several steps beyond his skillset.
    He really seems to have a very limited understanding of....pretty much everything.
    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1107364230280503296
    Sounds like a cut of Hammonds bribe to me. £1bn only gets you so far these days.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    So the EU would take back control.......

    No sentient being would change their position in the basis of a "promise" from Mrs May....
    We’ve already done that. It’s why the backstop applies to the whole of the UK not just NI. Not really sure what Pesto is talking about.
    He”ll be talking the usual mix of hit and hope. SOP when not being fed lines by Brown/Balls. A living example of being promotrd several steps beyond his skillset.
    He really seems to have a very limited understanding of....pretty much everything.
    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1107364230280503296
    No prizes for guessing what "additional elements" means.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    @justin124

    I note your remarks upthread. All I can tell you that morals change with time and place. The abusive behaviour of, say, Jimmy Savile was rumoured at the time, but celebs seem to have virtual carte-blanche for some time: John [redacted], David [redacted] and Jimmy [redacted] are known to have had relationships with underage girls (the latter two with the same girl, Lori Mattix), and Bill Wyman started dating his future wife when she was 13 and he 47. Even today it continues, with the late Paul [redacted] dating teenage girls whilst he was in his 30's.

    I think the different morals today are an offshoot of the internet. if it is one person's word against another then there is little chance of conviction. But nowadays victims can contact each other and gain sufficient strength, cf Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein. I'm not an unambiguous fan of today's trial by twitter (comedian Bill Burr has a line about the death of due process) and it can go horribly wrong (as Paul Gambaccini and William Roach can testify). But it has enabled people to publicise the fact that horrible behaviour is widespread and even normalised, and enabled several victims such as Ashley Judd to seek redress.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    So the EU would take back control.......

    No sentient being would change their position in the basis of a "promise" from Mrs May....
    We’ve already done that. It’s why the backstop applies to the whole of the UK not just NI. Not really sure what Pesto is talking about.
    He”ll be talking the usual mix of hit and hope. SOP when not being fed lines by Brown/Balls. A living example of being promotrd several steps beyond his skillset.
    He really seems to have a very limited understanding of....pretty much everything.
    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1107364230280503296
    No prizes for guessing what "additional elements" means.
    Their current deal is up in the summer.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    I don't see how that counters my point at all. The ';buck stops with her' is a stupid thing to suggest in this context. I don't care how much a lot of this is Theresa May's fault, the point was that she has explained, and others have explained, that the WA is not the end state, a million times. No matter how badly she has done, no matter how bad her tactics, she and others have explained that. And no MP who doesn't understand that point can say that they were not told.

    Honestly, I am amazed you even think that because May has led so poorly on this that means she is responsible for the lack of comprehension of MPs. It's astonishing, frankly. You have so little respect for our MPs that you think even after being

    If someone says 'the fire is hot' a thousands times and so bozo sticks their hand in it, yes they could have done a better job of warning that person, but it's still the fault of the person sticking their hand in the fire.

    You seem to be obsessed with the fact that the deal is bad and she has done a bad job selling it. But that is irrelevant to the point that on a basic issue of fact she has told them the situation. This isn't a matter of interpretation or her miscommunication. It would be pretending to not understand or being thick.

    In short, while I called it a defence of her, it really wasn't. She has a lot to take the blame for in all of this. But people lying about not understanding a point of fact, or still not getting it?

    Sorry, that's just being bloody unreasonable. Not least because there's no way some of the people who don't seem to understand the point about the WA must be lying about that, since there's no way they all don't understand. She's messed up so much, but she cannot prevent people pretending to not understand something so simple.

    The backstop as an end-state would undesirable for those of us who basically want a Canada-style arrangements, though my view is the risk of that materialising is very low.

    But I have to say the crocodile tears from those who support Remain or Norway+ at the "nothing has changed we still might get trapped in the backstop" message are top of the list of bad faith actors.

    Being in the backstop forever - Norway+ but without having to make a financial contribution. Why aren't they jumping at that?
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    MV3 to pass up to 40% at Betfair by the way. I'm a bit red now, but I'm very green on "No Deal not happening in the next fortnight" so that's not a problem.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    viewcode said:

    @justin124

    I note your remarks upthread. All I can tell you that morals change with time and place. The abusive behaviour of, say, Jimmy Savile was rumoured at the time, but celebs seem to have virtual carte-blanche for some time: John [redacted], David [redacted] and Jimmy [redacted] are known to have had relationships with underage girls (the latter two with the same girl, Lori Mattix), and Bill Wyman started dating his future wife when she was 13 and he 47. Even today it continues, with the late Paul [redacted] dating teenage girls whilst he was in his 30's.

    I think the different morals today are an offshoot of the internet. if it is one person's word against another then there is little chance of conviction. But nowadays victims can contact each other and gain sufficient strength, cf Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein. I'm not an unambiguous fan of today's trial by twitter (comedian Bill Burr has a line about the death of due process) and it can go horribly wrong (as Paul Gambaccini and William Roach can testify). But it has enabled people to publicise the fact that horrible behaviour is widespread and even normalised, and enabled several victims such as Ashley Judd to seek redress.

    I vaguely remember the Bill Wyman stuff from when I was a teenager. My memory is hazy after all these years, but I seem to recall it was treated as a bit of a joke. Which fits your time and place argument. Seems incredible now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited March 2019

    The backstop as an end-state would undesirable for those of us who basically want a Canada-style arrangements, though my view is the risk of that materialising is very low.

    But I have to say the crocodile tears from those who support Remain or Norway+ at the "nothing has changed we still might get trapped in the backstop" message are top of the list of bad faith actors.

    Being in the backstop forever - Norway+ but without having to make a financial contribution. Why aren't they jumping at that?

    The backstop isn’t like Norway+, especially for GB.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Didn't the ECJ already rule out such tactics in the Article 50 case?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Note he is talking about revoking and then immediately re-invoking to reset the clock. This was what the Advocate-General warned about in his advise prior to he ruling but which the full court decided not to act over. Unlikely perhaps but just possible they may come to regret that decision.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    edited March 2019

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    "Revoke it and immediately trigger it". Yep, that'll work. Nobody would spot that. That's a totally realistic plan, that is. Lord Ashcroft, ladies and gentlemen. Multi-millionaire supporter of UKIP. Big hand for the man with the entirely realistic plan. Yet again, wealthy Leavers show their ability to read the situation, generate solutions, model the results in the real world and select the one with the best chance of success. Why he didn't go with "I had my fingers crossed when invoked article 50 and here's a letter from my mum to prove it" I have no idea, but we must only trust in his gentle good wisdom.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited March 2019
    dodrade said:

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Didn't the ECJ already rule out such tactics in the Article 50 case?
    IIRC the actual judgement made no mention of that. Only a pre-opinion of some person associated with the court.

    Edit: the Attorney General
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    viewcode said:

    @justin124

    I note your remarks upthread. All I can tell you that morals change with time and place. The abusive behaviour of, say, Jimmy Savile was rumoured at the time, but celebs seem to have virtual carte-blanche for some time: John [redacted], David [redacted] and Jimmy [redacted] are known to have had relationships with underage girls (the latter two with the same girl, Lori Mattix), and Bill Wyman started dating his future wife when she was 13 and he 47. Even today it continues, with the late Paul [redacted] dating teenage girls whilst he was in his 30's.

    I think the different morals today are an offshoot of the internet. if it is one person's word against another then there is little chance of conviction. But nowadays victims can contact each other and gain sufficient strength, cf Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein. I'm not an unambiguous fan of today's trial by twitter (comedian Bill Burr has a line about the death of due process) and it can go horribly wrong (as Paul Gambaccini and William Roach can testify). But it has enabled people to publicise the fact that horrible behaviour is widespread and even normalised, and enabled several victims such as Ashley Judd to seek redress.

    I vaguely remember the Bill Wyman stuff from when I was a teenager. My memory is hazy after all these years, but I seem to recall it was treated as a bit of a joke. Which fits your time and place argument. Seems incredible now.
    Doesn't it just. If I happened now he'd be jailed, and rightly so.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    dodrade said:

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Didn't the ECJ already rule out such tactics in the Article 50 case?
    No. The AG said they should but they didn't include it in their ruling
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    viewcode said:

    @justin124

    I note your remarks upthread. All I can tell you that morals change with time and place. The abusive behaviour of, say, Jimmy Savile was rumoured at the time, but celebs seem to have virtual carte-blanche for some time: John [redacted], David [redacted] and Jimmy [redacted] are known to have had relationships with underage girls (the latter two with the same girl, Lori Mattix), and Bill Wyman started dating his future wife when she was 13 and he 47. Even today it continues, with the late Paul [redacted] dating teenage girls whilst he was in his 30's.

    I think the different morals today are an offshoot of the internet. if it is one person's word against another then there is little chance of conviction. But nowadays victims can contact each other and gain sufficient strength, cf Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein. I'm not an unambiguous fan of today's trial by twitter (comedian Bill Burr has a line about the death of due process) and it can go horribly wrong (as Paul Gambaccini and William Roach can testify). But it has enabled people to publicise the fact that horrible behaviour is widespread and even normalised, and enabled several victims such as Ashley Judd to seek redress.

    In the mid 1970s I attended a reception held in the civic centre in the city I then lived in for a man who at the time was a TV superstar and household name, Hughie Green. Green was, I suppose, in his fifties and had compered a local charity event. He arrived with a clutch of women who were, shall we say, clearly much younger than him all of whom wore notably reavealing outfits. They hung on his arm and generally pouted and fawned on him at this highly respectable event attended also by the Mayor and a number of city bigwigs. Such behaviour was unremarkable at the time, people might tut a bit but this was how the rich and powerful carried on, it was only to be expected really.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    dodrade said:

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Didn't the ECJ already rule out such tactics in the Article 50 case?
    Well, it would be legal according to their own ruling.

    However the EU would certainly not negotiate in such circumstances, so it would be pointless, as we would have to revoke again, and damaging as it would piss everyone off even more.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    They should send The Good Lord over to Brussels to make a 3am intervention. :D
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    The backstop as an end-state would undesirable for those of us who basically want a Canada-style arrangements, though my view is the risk of that materialising is very low.

    But I have to say the crocodile tears from those who support Remain or Norway+ at the "nothing has changed we still might get trapped in the backstop" message are top of the list of bad faith actors.

    Being in the backstop forever - Norway+ but without having to make a financial contribution. Why aren't they jumping at that?

    The backstop isn’t like Norway+, especially for GB.
    Customs alignment and close regulatory alignment represent the biggest single different between Norway and a harder Brexit as far as I can see - I mean, on the premise that reforming free movement is a given since even official Remainers claim to want to do that.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,921
    A few thoughts after a weekend in York at the LD Spring Conference. Vince Cable has a subtle sense of humour - or a very good speech writer. Two classics were Karen Bradley asking for a train ticket to Belfast and for the citizens of York complaining about Roman demands for straight roads and Britain suffering from Viking invasions ( the Norway option). Perhaps more interesting was the competition to be the next leader. Ed Davey and Jo Swinson got the big speeches- but Layla Moran got the Simon Hughes prize for most fringe events. Plus if you say Layla everyone knows who you mean.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    viewcode said:

    @justin124

    I note your remarks upthread. All I can tell you that morals change with time and place. The abusive behaviour of, say, Jimmy Savile was rumoured at the time, but celebs seem to have virtual carte-blanche for some time: John [redacted], David [redacted] and Jimmy [redacted] are known to have had relationships with underage girls (the latter two with the same girl, Lori Mattix), and Bill Wyman started dating his future wife when she was 13 and he 47. Even today it continues, with the late Paul [redacted] dating teenage girls whilst he was in his 30's.

    I think the different morals today are an offshoot of the internet. if it is one person's word against another then there is little chance of conviction. But nowadays victims can contact each other and gain sufficient strength, cf Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein. I'm not an unambiguous fan of today's trial by twitter (comedian Bill Burr has a line about the death of due process) and it can go horribly wrong (as Paul Gambaccini and William Roach can testify). But it has enabled people to publicise the fact that horrible behaviour is widespread and even normalised, and enabled several victims such as Ashley Judd to seek redress.

    In the mid 1970s I attended a reception held in the civic centre in the city I then lived in for a man who at the time was a TV superstar and household name, Hughie Green. Green was, I suppose, in his fifties and had compered a local charity event. He arrived with a clutch of women who were, shall we say, clearly much younger than him all of whom wore notably reavealing outfits. They hung on his arm and generally pouted and fawned on him at this highly respectable event attended also by the Mayor and a number of city bigwigs. Such behaviour was unremarkable at the time, people might tut a bit but this was how the rich and powerful carried on, it was only to be expected really.
    People look back at the 50s, 60s and 70s with nostalgia, but for a lot of people it was rough and unpleasant.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,962

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Note he is talking about revoking and then immediately re-invoking to reset the clock. This was what the Advocate-General warned about in his advise prior to he ruling but which the full court decided not to act over. Unlikely perhaps but just possible they may come to regret that decision.
    You think May would have the balls to pull this off?

    Of course not. If the EU thought it was a realistic option we might pursue, it might have some negotiating clout. But not with May at the helm.
  • slade said:

    A few thoughts after a weekend in York at the LD Spring Conference. Vince Cable has a subtle sense of humour - or a very good speech writer. Two classics were Karen Bradley asking for a train ticket to Belfast and for the citizens of York complaining about Roman demands for straight roads and Britain suffering from Viking invasions ( the Norway option). Perhaps more interesting was the competition to be the next leader. Ed Davey and Jo Swinson got the big speeches- but Layla Moran got the Simon Hughes prize for most fringe events.

    Plus if you say Layla everyone knows who you mean.

    Eric Clapton?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    dodrade said:

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Didn't the ECJ already rule out such tactics in the Article 50 case?
    IIRC the actual judgement made no mention of that. Only a pre-opinion of some person associated with the court.

    Edit: the Attorney General
    I think in the EU it's the Advocate General.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547
    Nigelb said:

    The suggestion that they downplayed what might have been a significant hazard has the potential to be damning.

    “A hazardous failure mode depending on a single sensor, I don’t think passes muster,” said Lemme.

    Like all 737s, the MAX actually has two of the sensors, one on each side of the fuselage near the cockpit. But the MCAS was designed to take a reading from only one of them...

    Yep, that seems a major factor.

    Usual caveats, IANAE, this might all be wrong, etc, etc.

    If triggered, the MCAS system is designed to put 2.5 degrees on the tail's leading edge to force the tail down. The pilots are alerted to the change in the plane's configuration, but due to training and informational issues might not know why it triggered.

    If the conditions remain, the MCAS system can be triggered every 10 seconds, putting another 2.5 degrees onto the tail over that ten seconds. It can be overriden with manual trim, or by putting the autopilot on. (*) This means the pilots have to be manually trimming the plane every ten seconds - and if they do not trim all the way back, the system will start adding another 2.5 degrees to whatever is left.

    This seems to add a massive amount of extra workload for the pilots, when they might be working out what the f is going on.

    A really odd thing about Boeing's use of AoA sensors is the one that is used for any particular purpose is swapped over between flights: on one flight it is the port, on the next the starboard. It seems crazy not to use both (and three would be bet of all to allow voting...)

    (*) I am unsure whether pilots are trained/expected to put autopilot on if they have an issue with the plane they don't understand.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    slade said:

    A few thoughts after a weekend in York at the LD Spring Conference. Vince Cable has a subtle sense of humour - or a very good speech writer. Two classics were Karen Bradley asking for a train ticket to Belfast and for the citizens of York complaining about Roman demands for straight roads and Britain suffering from Viking invasions ( the Norway option). Perhaps more interesting was the competition to be the next leader. Ed Davey and Jo Swinson got the big speeches- but Layla Moran got the Simon Hughes prize for most fringe events.

    Plus if you say Layla everyone knows who you mean.

    Eric Clapton?
    Tell me they aren't going to elect Ed Davey.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited March 2019
    slade said:

    A few thoughts after a weekend in York at the LD Spring Conference. Vince Cable has a subtle sense of humour - or a very good speech writer. Two classics were Karen Bradley asking for a train ticket to Belfast and for the citizens of York complaining about Roman demands for straight roads and Britain suffering from Viking invasions ( the Norway option). Perhaps more interesting was the competition to be the next leader. Ed Davey and Jo Swinson got the big speeches- but Layla Moran got the Simon Hughes prize for most fringe events. Plus if you say Layla everyone knows who you mean.

    “classic”. A much demeaned term. Unless it’s now a synonym for elderly and/or fails to translate in any way outside true believer.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Note he is talking about revoking and then immediately re-invoking to reset the clock. This was what the Advocate-General warned about in his advise prior to he ruling but which the full court decided not to act over. Unlikely perhaps but just possible they may come to regret that decision.
    You think May would have the balls to pull this off?

    Of course not. If the EU thought it was a realistic option we might pursue, it might have some negotiating clout. But not with May at the helm.
    Nah not in a million years. Nor should she. This is in the same ballpark as accepting everything with the intention of reneging n the whole lot later on. It would cripple trust in any other international treaties we signed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited March 2019
    That's a bit insulting to them, particularly given plenty of them have said there is more than the backstop they do not like about the deal. Seems more concern that some of them are willing to compromise and he doesn't want them to (though not for the same reason as the Bakers of the world obviously). He should panic less, it's still very hard for the deal to pass as there have not yet been dozens of switchers.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756

    Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Apart from right royally pissing off the already pissed off EU, believing that the people who have spent the last two & a half years negotiating us to where we are today will have learned anything from the process is...Pollyana-esque.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547
    "Counter terror police are investigating a suspected far-right inspired attack in which a 19-year-old man was stabbed."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-47605547
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    If Theresa's Tories are hoping for a Onasanya bounce they may be disappointed.

    Here's the top comment (of 6,150 correspondents) replying to Mrs May's latest sally to her likely Electorate in the ToryGraph.

    "Disgusting traitor. Just resign and live in infamy as the worst PM Britain has ever had.
    You have failed in every single way possible and dragged our country down to the level of a banana republic with your lies, deceit and corruption." = 966 up votes.

    All the others with 500+ upvotes are similar.

    Can't see it improving after she puts in the SI 'postponing' Brexit to 20XX..



  • Another Brexiteer starts talking about revocation...

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1107353494791557122?s=21

    Apart from right royally pissing off the already pissed off EU, believing that the people who have spent the last two & a half years negotiating us to where we are today will have learned anything from the process is...Pollyana-esque.
    And pissing off almost all of the electorate, right before a GE that would no doubt follow this genius move.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    shiney2 said:

    If Theresa's Tories are hoping for a Onasanya bounce they may be disappointed.

    Here's the top comment (of 6,150 correspondents) replying to Mrs May's latest sally to her likely Electorate in the ToryGraph.

    "Disgusting traitor. Just resign and live in infamy as the worst PM Britain has ever had.
    You have failed in every single way possible and dragged our country down to the level of a banana republic with your lies, deceit and corruption." = 966 up votes.

    All the others with 500+ upvotes are similar.

    Can't see it improving after she puts in the SI 'postponing' Brexit to 20XX..

    Well that's hardly her preferred option, she is not in control of events as we know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Big problem really. I have always thought that would be the plan, that getting through this stage would ruin any PM for the next stage. But the second she admits that it is leaked and Labour and others run with it.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    If Theresa's Tories are hoping for a Onasanya bounce they may be disappointed.

    Here's the top comment (of 6,150 correspondents) replying to Mrs May's latest sally to her likely Electorate in the ToryGraph.

    "Disgusting traitor. Just resign and live in infamy as the worst PM Britain has ever had.
    You have failed in every single way possible and dragged our country down to the level of a banana republic with your lies, deceit and corruption." = 966 up votes.

    All the others with 500+ upvotes are similar.

    Can't see it improving after she puts in the SI 'postponing' Brexit to 20XX..

    Well that's hardly her preferred option, she is not in control of events as we know.
    She has to do it personally as PM. Nobody can force her.

    There is no excuse. Its her choice.

    And that fact is going to damn her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    More still back the Norway option and No Deal combined or the Deal and No Deal combined than staying in the EU though
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    shiney2 said:

    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    If Theresa's Tories are hoping for a Onasanya bounce they may be disappointed.

    Here's the top comment (of 6,150 correspondents) replying to Mrs May's latest sally to her likely Electorate in the ToryGraph.

    "Disgusting traitor. Just resign and live in infamy as the worst PM Britain has ever had.
    You have failed in every single way possible and dragged our country down to the level of a banana republic with your lies, deceit and corruption." = 966 up votes.

    All the others with 500+ upvotes are similar.

    Can't see it improving after she puts in the SI 'postponing' Brexit to 20XX..

    Well that's hardly her preferred option, she is not in control of events as we know.
    She has to do it personally as PM. Nobody can force her.

    There is no excuse. Its her choice.

    And that fact is going to damn her.
    So what? Parliament won't approve anything, and part of that is down to her poor leadership, but she has to respond to the inability of parliament to agree something, or implement what parliament agrees, and they agreed to extend. It's one of the few things they have agreed on. She backed herself into a corner as much as she got backed into it, but the 'she's a traitor' crowd are just plain foolish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Reading that, I think we have passed the point where saying that a second referendum would be undemocratic sounded a bit counter-intuitive. It now makes you sound completely unhinged.
    Intriguing that Boris and Keir Starmer are having such a good war. If the Tories were led by Boris and Labour by Keir, how would people here vote? HYUFD for Boris, maybe Philip, Sean F?
    I would vote for Boris but I increasingly like the look of Matt Hancock
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    If Theresa's Tories are hoping for a Onasanya bounce they may be disappointed.

    Here's the top comment (of 6,150 correspondents) replying to Mrs May's latest sally to her likely Electorate in the ToryGraph.

    "Disgusting traitor. Just resign and live in infamy as the worst PM Britain has ever had.
    You have failed in every single way possible and dragged our country down to the level of a banana republic with your lies, deceit and corruption." = 966 up votes.

    All the others with 500+ upvotes are similar.

    Can't see it improving after she puts in the SI 'postponing' Brexit to 20XX..

    Well that's hardly her preferred option, she is not in control of events as we know.
    She has to do it personally as PM. Nobody can force her.

    There is no excuse. Its her choice.

    And that fact is going to damn her.
    So what? Parliament won't approve anything, and part of that is down to her poor leadership, but she has to respond to the inability of parliament to agree something, or implement what parliament agrees, and they agreed to extend. It's one of the few things they have agreed on. She backed herself into a corner as much as she got backed into it, but the 'she's a traitor' crowd are just plain foolish.
    Many many people (her supporters natch) believed Theresa 'No Deal Is better than a bad deal, May.

    She said it 80+ times to the Public.. And they believed.

    And that counts
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Reading that, I think we have passed the point where saying that a second referendum would be undemocratic sounded a bit counter-intuitive. It now makes you sound completely unhinged.
    Intriguing that Boris and Keir Starmer are having such a good war. If the Tories were led by Boris and Labour by Keir, how would people here vote? HYUFD for Boris, maybe Philip, Sean F?
    I would vote for Boris but I increasingly like the look of Matt Hancock
    Are you out of your mind? :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    shiney2 said:

    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    If Theresa's Tories are hoping for a Onasanya bounce they may be disappointed.

    Here's the top comment (of 6,150 correspondents) replying to Mrs May's latest sally to her likely Electorate in the ToryGraph.

    "Disgusting traitor. Just resign and live in infamy as the worst PM Britain has ever had.
    You have failed in every single way possible and dragged our country down to the level of a banana republic with your lies, deceit and corruption." = 966 up votes.

    All the others with 500+ upvotes are similar.

    Can't see it improving after she puts in the SI 'postponing' Brexit to 20XX..

    Well that's hardly her preferred option, she is not in control of events as we know.
    She has to do it personally as PM. Nobody can force her.

    There is no excuse. Its her choice.

    And that fact is going to damn her.
    So what? Parliament won't approve anything, and part of that is down to her poor leadership, but she has to respond to the inability of parliament to agree something, or implement what parliament agrees, and they agreed to extend. It's one of the few things they have agreed on. She backed herself into a corner as much as she got backed into it, but the 'she's a traitor' crowd are just plain foolish.
    Many many people (her supporters natch) believed Theresa 'No Deal Is better than a bad deal, May.

    She said it 80+ times to the Public.. And they believed.

    And that counts
    But she hasn't got a bad deal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    If only we were that lucky. May is the problem.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Rather bizarre reason to decide on Brexit one way or the other.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    MV3 to pass up to 40% at Betfair by the way. I'm a bit red now, but I'm very green on "No Deal not happening in the next fortnight" so that's not a problem.

    My worry would be MV3 failing, but failing so narrowly MV4 becomes a foregone conclusion.

    Say the DUP get on board, 25x Tory No, 10x Lab Yes =310
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    ydoethur said:

    shiney2 said:

    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    If Theresa's Tories are hoping for a Onasanya bounce they may be disappointed.

    Here's the top comment (of 6,150 correspondents) replying to Mrs May's latest sally to her likely Electorate in the ToryGraph.

    "Disgusting traitor. Just resign and live in infamy as the worst PM Britain has ever had.
    You have failed in every single way possible and dragged our country down to the level of a banana republic with your lies, deceit and corruption." = 966 up votes.

    All the others with 500+ upvotes are similar.

    Can't see it improving after she puts in the SI 'postponing' Brexit to 20XX..

    Well that's hardly her preferred option, she is not in control of events as we know.
    She has to do it personally as PM. Nobody can force her.

    There is no excuse. Its her choice.

    And that fact is going to damn her.
    So what? Parliament won't approve anything, and part of that is down to her poor leadership, but she has to respond to the inability of parliament to agree something, or implement what parliament agrees, and they agreed to extend. It's one of the few things they have agreed on. She backed herself into a corner as much as she got backed into it, but the 'she's a traitor' crowd are just plain foolish.
    Many many people (her supporters natch) believed Theresa 'No Deal Is better than a bad deal, May.

    She said it 80+ times to the Public.. And they believed.

    And that counts
    But she hasn't got a bad deal.
    6000+ respondents to her letter in the ToryGraph asserting that, disagree.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    "In one of the phone calls, a former cabinet minister who last week swapped sides to vote for the deal told May she would win round other rebels if she announced she is willing to go. A source familiar with the conversation said the PM reacted with “surprise” and “faux astonishment” at the idea of a resignation pact."

    David Davis? ;)
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited March 2019
    Andrew said:

    MV3 to pass up to 40% at Betfair by the way. I'm a bit red now, but I'm very green on "No Deal not happening in the next fortnight" so that's not a problem.

    My worry would be MV3 failing, but failing so narrowly MV4 becomes a foregone conclusion.

    Say the DUP get on board, 25x Tory No, 10x Lab Yes =310
    I've been wondering what the defeat is on MV3 that justifies MV4 and makes it possible to pass (which could be the same thing)

    Under 30?

    Edit: That is assuming they do bring it back in the next few days rather than holding off until it can pass and if it can't then not bringing it back.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @justin124

    I note your remarks upthread. All I can tell you that morals change with time and place. The abusive behaviour of, say, Jimmy Savile was rumoured at the time, but celebs seem to have virtual carte-blanche for some time: John [redacted], David [redacted] and Jimmy [redacted] are known to have had relationships with underage girls (the latter two with the same girl, Lori Mattix), and Bill Wyman started dating his future wife when she was 13 and he 47. Even today it continues, with the late Paul [redacted] dating teenage girls whilst he was in his 30's.

    I think the different morals today are an offshoot of the internet. if it is one person's word against another then there is little chance of conviction. But nowadays victims can contact each other and gain sufficient strength, cf Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein. I'm not an unambiguous fan of today's trial by twitter (comedian Bill Burr has a line about the death of due process) and it can go horribly wrong (as Paul Gambaccini and William Roach can testify). But it has enabled people to publicise the fact that horrible behaviour is widespread and even normalised, and enabled several victims such as Ashley Judd to seek redress.

    I vaguely remember the Bill Wyman stuff from when I was a teenager. My memory is hazy after all these years, but I seem to recall it was treated as a bit of a joke. Which fits your time and place argument. Seems incredible now.
    Doesn't it just. If I happened now he'd be jailed, and rightly so.
    Underage groupies were all part of the rock star entourage back in the day, all part of the rebel lifestyle. It all seems pretty sleazy in retrospect. Similarly pederasty was not considered that big of deal. We have rightly become much more puritanical over the years. I am sure that I am not the only PBer hit on by older men when I was under the age of 21, the age of consent of the time.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited March 2019
    ydoethur said:

    I feel as you do about Steel - genuinely shocked. Some of the reports are not quite accurate, in that Smith didn't confess to him, merely confirmed he'd been investigated. So although Steel got the impression (he doesn't say how) he was guilty, it's perhaps understandable that he didn't feel he could tell the police about his opinion. But how he could have had him continue to sit alongside and later get a knighthood is completely incomprehensible.

    It is of course true that such evidence would be inadmissible in a police investigation as it would be considered hearsay.

    But at the same time it should have ruled him out of a knighthood and seen him dropped as a Liberal candidate.

    Again, we come back to the fact that far too many people either didn't see it as a big deal, or paradoxically, saw closing down a scandal as more important.

    Steel seems to have been another such.
    1979 was ,of course, also the year of the Thorpe trial , and one can well imagine Steel as Liberal Leader not wishing to see another can of worms opened at that time. It does not though excuse his subsequent actions .
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    A Conservative PM called the referendum

    A Conservative PM lost the referendum

    A Conservative PM botched the negotiations

    A Conservative PM refused to take no deal off the table

    A Conservative PM ran down the clock

    Yet somehow Brexit is all Jeremy Corbyn's fault according to TIGgers
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Reading that, I think we have passed the point where saying that a second referendum would be undemocratic sounded a bit counter-intuitive. It now makes you sound completely unhinged.
    Intriguing that Boris and Keir Starmer are having such a good war. If the Tories were led by Boris and Labour by Keir, how would people here vote? HYUFD for Boris, maybe Philip, Sean F?
    I would vote for Boris but I increasingly like the look of Matt Hancock
    In all the fun and games, this recent gaffe by Hancock is lost in the twittersphere:

    https://twitter.com/Phoebejoy1611/status/1106310007895851009?s=19
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Rather bizarre reason to decide on Brexit one way or the other.
    They’re looking for a figleaf. This is one she can give.
This discussion has been closed.