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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While all the focus is Speaker Bercow

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While all the focus is Speaker Bercow

MAY: You're SURE it's gone?GRAYLING: DefinitelyMAY: You know 100% that the Article 50 revocation fax was sent?GRAYLING: Oh yesMAY: Phew because it's 00:01GRAYLING: I did it personallyMAY: Wait… what?!

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    First like . . .

    . . . who actually knows anymore?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2019

    First like . . .

    . . . who actually knows anymore?

    Second like the final meaningful vote on May's deal?

    Still sounds like a great idea to put Grayling in charge of the letter confirming we wish to extend A50 on the EU's terms - and then its 11.01pm on Friday week and it hasn't arrived in Brussels.
  • We are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven.
    That is an understatement
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Slow news day I take it?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    If Mrs May succeeds in getting a 12 month delay presumably she can still say she delivered her commitment that we would leave on 29 March - albeit 2020?!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    There must be non-trivial chance that somebody is going to die on The Gammonball Run. Either by getting mowed down by a plumbers van, hypothermia or myocardial infarction.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    brendan16 said:

    If Mrs May succeeds in getting a 12 month delay presumably she can still say she delivered her commitment that we would leave on 29 March - albeit 2020?!

    The 29th of March could become an unofficial leap day that we skip every year.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Dura_Ace said:

    There must be non-trivial chance that somebody is going to die on The Gammonball Run. Either by getting mowed down by a plumbers van, hypothermia or myocardial infarction.
    Why is the only flag on display that of the Isle of Man which isn’t even in the EU?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    DoJ probe into Boeing:

    U.S. federal authorities began exploring a criminal investigation of how Boeing’s 737 MAX was certified to fly passengers before the latest crash in Ethiopia involving the new jet, according to people familiar with the probe.

    The investigation was prompted by information obtained after a Lion Air 737 MAX 8 crashed shortly after takeoff from Jakarta on Oct. 29, said one person, who wasn’t authorized to speak about the investigation and asked not to be named.


    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/probe-of-faas-oversight-of-boeing-737-began-before-second-crash/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    RobD said:

    Slow news day I take it?

    Oh you know, the usual. Bits, bobs, the destruction of British politics as we know it. Monday, basically.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    I can't really see anybody outside of the Labour MPs who voted for May's deal and maybe a couple of others campaigning for it. A couple like Kate Hoey maybe who want a no deal but the vast majority of the party would prefer remain to May's deal given a choice of what to campaign for.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    I can't really see anybody outside of the Labour MPs who voted for May's deal and maybe a couple of others campaigning for it. A couple like Kate Hoey maybe who want a no deal but the vast majority of the party would prefer remain to May's deal given a choice of what to campaign for.</blockquote

    I really don't see how there can be a referendum at this stage without a "no deal exit" option. It's polling well in excess of "deal"
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited March 2019

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    It's to avoid unleashing the No Deal kaiju. That's it, the means achieves the ends, and it's more important than any other consideration.

    However the ways it may lead to something other than another extension are:
    * The pro-brexit MPs may decide it would be a good thing to have brexit, and vote for her deal
    * Opinion in the Conservative Party may shift over time in an "anything to get it done" direction or a "just make it go away" direction to make her feel safe enough to do a referendum or revoke
    * Her government may fall or she may have a good opportunity for an election, resulting in different arithmetic that allows her to pass the deal or makes the whole clusterfuck some other unlucky prime minister's problem

    Whether "keep the kaiju at bay" is a sufficient justification to satisfy the other member states I don't know. I guess she's try to think of a better one, not sure what she could use.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    An extension for extensions sake (to avoid no deal) is just a big waste of time.
    If we don't want no deal, just revoke.
    If we want a second referendum have one long enough to get that done.

    Just pick something already. Even I, as a massive political wonk are getting just a tiny bit bored of this, and the idea of another twelve months of naval gazing and political paralysis in the country doesn't fill me with joy. All that will happen is that we'll be back in the same boat twelve months from now.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    An extension for extensions sake (to avoid no deal) is just a big waste of time.
    If we don't want no deal, just revoke.
    If we want a second referendum have one long enough to get that done.

    Just pick something already. Even I, as a massive political wonk are getting just a tiny bit bored of this, and the idea of another twelve months of naval gazing and political paralysis in the country doesn't fill me with joy. All that will happen is that we'll be back in the same boat twelve months from now.

    If there's a majority feeling like you right now then great, hopefully the Deal+EURef thing will pass. And the boredom should increase, so if it can't pass now it may still pass a few months down the line. But if there isn't, being back in the same boat twelve months from now is better than drowning, no?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,768

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    I can't really see anybody outside of the Labour MPs who voted for May's deal and maybe a couple of others campaigning for it. A couple like Kate Hoey maybe who want a no deal but the vast majority of the party would prefer remain to May's deal given a choice of what to campaign for.
    I really don't see how there can be a referendum at this stage without a "no deal exit" option. It's polling well in excess of "deal"
    On that basis there needs to be a "Remain" option too - as that's outpolling each of the other two.

    How about everyone gets three options on the ballot paper

    Remain vs No Deal
    No Deal vs Deal
    Deal vs Remain

    Now, unless something truly extraordinary happens, one option will win against both others. That will be - IIRC - the Condorcet Winner.

    So: Remain vs No Deal could go either way.
    No Deal vs Deal will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    Deal vs Remain will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    rcs1000 said:

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    I can't really see anybody outside of the Labour MPs who voted for May's deal and maybe a couple of others campaigning for it. A couple like Kate Hoey maybe who want a no deal but the vast majority of the party would prefer remain to May's deal given a choice of what to campaign for.
    I really don't see how there can be a referendum at this stage without a "no deal exit" option. It's polling well in excess of "deal"
    On that basis there needs to be a "Remain" option too - as that's outpolling each of the other two.

    How about everyone gets three options on the ballot paper

    Remain vs No Deal
    No Deal vs Deal
    Deal vs Remain

    Now, unless something truly extraordinary happens, one option will win against both others. That will be - IIRC - the Condorcet Winner.

    So: Remain vs No Deal could go either way.
    No Deal vs Deal will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    Deal vs Remain will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    This feels nice and fair to everybody but IIRC YouGov did some polling like this and the extraordinary thing happened of there being no Condorcet winner. What do you do if that happens?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    It's to avoid unleashing the No Deal kaiju. That's it, the means achieves the ends, and it's more important than any other consideration.

    However the ways it may lead to something other than another extension are:
    * The pro-brexit MPs may decide it would be a good thing to have brexit, and vote for her deal
    * Opinion in the Conservative Party may shift over time in an "anything to get it done" direction or a "just make it go away" direction to make her feel safe enough to do a referendum or revoke
    * Her government may fall or she may have a good opportunity for an election, resulting in different arithmetic that allows her to pass the deal or makes the whole clusterfuck some other unlucky prime minister's problem

    Whether "keep the kaiju at bay" is a sufficient justification to satisfy the other member states I don't know. I guess she's try to think of a better one, not sure what she could use.
    She’s not exactly renowned for creative thinking when urgent decisions are needed. Perhaps she could ask that civil servant she’s about to sack ?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    (FPT)
    Dura_Ace said:

    On balance, I've enjoyed Brexit a great deal more than I thought I would.

    Well you do seem to enjoy pranging cars ?
    Though Brexit is more of a slow motion car crash.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited March 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    I can't really see anybody outside of the Labour MPs who voted for May's deal and maybe a couple of others campaigning for it. A couple like Kate Hoey maybe who want a no deal but the vast majority of the party would prefer remain to May's deal given a choice of what to campaign for.
    I really don't see how there can be a referendum at this stage without a "no deal exit" option. It's polling well in excess of "deal"
    On that basis there needs to be a "Remain" option too - as that's outpolling each of the other two.

    How about everyone gets three options on the ballot paper

    Remain vs No Deal
    No Deal vs Deal
    Deal vs Remain

    Now, unless something truly extraordinary happens, one option will win against both others. That will be - IIRC - the Condorcet Winner.

    So: Remain vs No Deal could go either way.
    No Deal vs Deal will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    Deal vs Remain will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    I thought we should have no deal as an option a while ago...

    Problem is now the EU has to agree to whatever we are doing, we are no longer fully in control.

    A remain vs deal referendum is one the EU would be okay with.

    Edit: Not personally against your idea, it seems reasonable. Just not sure it is actually workable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,768

    rcs1000 said:

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    I can't really see anybody outside of the Labour MPs who voted for May's deal and maybe a couple of others campaigning for it. A couple like Kate Hoey maybe who want a no deal but the vast majority of the party would prefer remain to May's deal given a choice of what to campaign for.
    I really don't see how there can be a referendum at this stage without a "no deal exit" option. It's polling well in excess of "deal"
    On that basis there needs to be a "Remain" option too - as that's outpolling each of the other two.

    How about everyone gets three options on the ballot paper

    Remain vs No Deal
    No Deal vs Deal
    Deal vs Remain

    Now, unless something truly extraordinary happens, one option will win against both others. That will be - IIRC - the Condorcet Winner.

    So: Remain vs No Deal could go either way.
    No Deal vs Deal will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    Deal vs Remain will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    This feels nice and fair to everybody but IIRC YouGov did some polling like this and the extraordinary thing happened of there being no Condorcet winner. What do you do if that happens?
    Keep extending and having referendums until there is one.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    I can't really see anybody outside of the Labour MPs who voted for May's deal and maybe a couple of others campaigning for it. A couple like Kate Hoey maybe who want a no deal but the vast majority of the party would prefer remain to May's deal given a choice of what to campaign for.
    I really don't see how there can be a referendum at this stage without a "no deal exit" option. It's polling well in excess of "deal"
    On that basis there needs to be a "Remain" option too - as that's outpolling each of the other two.

    How about everyone gets three options on the ballot paper

    Remain vs No Deal
    No Deal vs Deal
    Deal vs Remain

    Now, unless something truly extraordinary happens, one option will win against both others. That will be - IIRC - the Condorcet Winner.

    So: Remain vs No Deal could go either way.
    No Deal vs Deal will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    Deal vs Remain will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    This feels nice and fair to everybody but IIRC YouGov did some polling like this and the extraordinary thing happened of there being no Condorcet winner. What do you do if that happens?
    Keep extending and having referendums until there is one.
    Nice.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Second last to ground, but I suspect others will follow this lead:

    OTTAWA (Reuters) - Transport Canada is re-examining the validation it gave Boeing Co’s 737 MAX jets, following reports of a U.S. probe into the aircraft’s certification by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Canada’s transport minister said on Monday.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-canada/canada-re-examining-max-approval-after-faa-certification-probe-idUSKCN1QZ2DB
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Did anyone ever discuss the latest Eurobarometer survey ?

    This result perhaps explains why selling any agreement is an uphill struggle:
    Trust in the EU is predominant in 17 EU Member States (up from 15 in spring 2018), with the highest proportions in Lithuania (65%), Denmark (60%) and Sweden (59%). More than half of respondents also say they “tend to trust” the EU in the Netherlands (57%), Malta (56%), Portugal (55%), Estonia and Bulgaria (both 53%), Luxembourg, Finland and Belgium (all 52%) and Germany (51%). At the other end of the scale, lowest proportions are seen in Greece (26%), the United Kingdom (31%) and Czechia (32%)...
    https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinionmobile/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/surveyKy/2215

    It’s striking that the number for those who trust the EU is considerably less than the number who view it positively (31% vs 43%)....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That would reflect far worse on the government than on John Bercow. But this government is now in such a state of nervous collapse that it wouldn’t see that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If the government is intending to continue to ignore that its preferred solution has been defeated twice by record-breaking margins, looked set to be defeated again and now has to change before it is allowed back to Parliament, you do have to conclude that it has lost any remaining contact with reality.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056

    If the government is intending to continue to ignore that its preferred solution has been defeated twice by record-breaking margins, looked set to be defeated again and now has to change before it is allowed back to Parliament, you do have to conclude that it has lost any remaining contact with reality.

    Nothing Has Changed!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited March 2019

    If the government is intending to continue to ignore that its preferred solution has been defeated twice by record-breaking margins, looked set to be defeated again and now has to change before it is allowed back to Parliament, you do have to conclude that it has lost any remaining contact with reality.

    To be fair most governments have a limited contact with reality. For this government they don't even know what reality is, was or will be. Offering Mr O. Robbins as a prize I assume as a proxy for our PM after the weekend phone conversations indicated a basic failure to recognise reality in any form.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    DoJ probe into Boeing:

    U.S. federal authorities began exploring a criminal investigation of how Boeing’s 737 MAX was certified to fly passengers before the latest crash in Ethiopia involving the new jet, according to people familiar with the probe.

    The investigation was prompted by information obtained after a Lion Air 737 MAX 8 crashed shortly after takeoff from Jakarta on Oct. 29, said one person, who wasn’t authorized to speak about the investigation and asked not to be named.


    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/probe-of-faas-oversight-of-boeing-737-began-before-second-crash/

    That’s highly unusual, but under the circumstances not entirely unexpected. I think Congress could be about to throw the FAA under a bus plane for their lack of regulatory oversight, while Boeing could be looking at the equivalent of corporate manslaughter charges for coming up with such a crap system as the MCAS on the 737 Max.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    On topic, I see Bercow has put himself back into the story again - much as a number of us predicted months ago.

    On this occasion he could be said to have a point though, putting the same deal to numerous votes, hoping that time pressure changes minds, is not conducive to good outcomes. The correct response from the PM would have been to declare the deal dead after the vote in December (the one that was postponed) then gone back to the EU with Cox and Foster to hammer out what was required to bring everyone on board. Instead Mrs May’s been behind the curve for three months and the result is probably now going to be no deal by accident.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited March 2019

    If the government is intending to continue to ignore that its preferred solution has been defeated twice by record-breaking margins, looked set to be defeated again and now has to change before it is allowed back to Parliament, you do have to conclude that it has lost any remaining contact with reality.

    I rarely agree with you on Brexit, Alastair, but I think you’re spot on with that comment.

    Given the deal is a dodo, and an extension is looking unlikely as we can’t decide what it’s for, we have two options left.

    1. Revoke A50, followed by an immediate election
    2. No deal, spend the next few months sorting out the mess followed by a summer election.

    The MPs collectively and individually need to grow a pair and make a decision, then be held accountable for that decision by the electorate.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, I see Bercow has put himself back into the story again - much as a number of us predicted months ago.

    On this occasion he could be said to have a point though, putting the same deal to numerous votes, hoping that time pressure changes minds, is not conducive to good outcomes. The correct response from the PM would have been to declare the deal dead after the vote in December (the one that was postponed) then gone back to the EU with Cox and Foster to hammer out what was required to bring everyone on board. Instead Mrs May’s been behind the curve for three months and the result is probably now going to be no deal by accident.

    Not a bad idea to take Arlene Foster along on a trip to Brussels. She might realise that other people have a point, although the DUP are not known for seeing other's viewpoints.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Mrs May is going to keep our Mr Glenn on tenterhooks for his bet money all year

    If the extension is agreed sepatately from the deal, under Bercow's ruling we shouldn't ever get to MV3. At least we'll have the 9-12 months to work out an alternative approach,
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited March 2019
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, I see Bercow has put himself back into the story again - much as a number of us predicted months ago.

    On this occasion he could be said to have a point though, putting the same deal to numerous votes, hoping that time pressure changes minds, is not conducive to good outcomes. The correct response from the PM would have been to declare the deal dead after the vote in December (the one that was postponed) then gone back to the EU with Cox and Foster to hammer out what was required to bring everyone on board. Instead Mrs May’s been behind the curve for three months and the result is probably now going to be no deal by accident.

    On getting good outcomes I think what the government is trying to do is OK - I mean, it's not what I'd have chosen, but it's one viable way to approach it. There was a time to do the cross-party thing and try to come up with a Brexit that everyone would support, but that time was right after the election, and it's too late for it now. Meanwhile there's a good case for why MPs *should* vote for the current deal, and the strategy is actually moving votes, and could conceivably (if improbably) move enough. And there's a reasonable contingency plan if they don't, namely to extend.

    If the goal was purely to exhaust the MPs by making them take vote after vote at inconvenient times then parliament shouldn't allow it, but that's not what's going on; The MPs would still be showing up if all that was happening was parliament trying voting on the other approaches.

    That said, somebody posted the rules on the previous thread, and if they mean what the plain English seems to mean then it looks to me like Bercow is interpreting them correctly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Dura_Ace said:

    There must be non-trivial chance that somebody is going to die on The Gammonball Run. Either by getting mowed down by a plumbers van, hypothermia or myocardial infarction.
    Without scrolling up as soon as I saw “Gammonball” I knew it was you.

    Such posts are beneath you.

    You need to sort your issues out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    brendan16 said:

    If Mrs May succeeds in getting a 12 month delay presumably she can still say she delivered her commitment that we would leave on 29 March - albeit 2020?!

    The 29th of March could become an unofficial leap day that we skip every year.
    You’ve done a funny.

    Chapeau.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    That would decisively push me into the camp of radical House of Lords reform.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Nigelb said:

    Did anyone ever discuss the latest Eurobarometer survey ?

    This result perhaps explains why selling any agreement is an uphill struggle:
    Trust in the EU is predominant in 17 EU Member States (up from 15 in spring 2018), with the highest proportions in Lithuania (65%), Denmark (60%) and Sweden (59%). More than half of respondents also say they “tend to trust” the EU in the Netherlands (57%), Malta (56%), Portugal (55%), Estonia and Bulgaria (both 53%), Luxembourg, Finland and Belgium (all 52%) and Germany (51%). At the other end of the scale, lowest proportions are seen in Greece (26%), the United Kingdom (31%) and Czechia (32%)...
    https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinionmobile/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/surveyKy/2215

    It’s striking that the number for those who trust the EU is considerably less than the number who view it positively (31% vs 43%)....

    Those eurobarometers are borderline voodoo.

    Their methodology would embarrass Andrew Cooper.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043
    We need to know what the DUP think. If the deal has a majority, then somehow, the deal we will get.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Sandpit said:

    DoJ probe into Boeing:

    U.S. federal authorities began exploring a criminal investigation of how Boeing’s 737 MAX was certified to fly passengers before the latest crash in Ethiopia involving the new jet, according to people familiar with the probe.

    The investigation was prompted by information obtained after a Lion Air 737 MAX 8 crashed shortly after takeoff from Jakarta on Oct. 29, said one person, who wasn’t authorized to speak about the investigation and asked not to be named.


    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/probe-of-faas-oversight-of-boeing-737-began-before-second-crash/

    That’s highly unusual, but under the circumstances not entirely unexpected. I think Congress could be about to throw the FAA under a bus plane for their lack of regulatory oversight, while Boeing could be looking at the equivalent of corporate manslaughter charges for coming up with such a crap system as the MCAS on the 737 Max.
    I’ll let you into a little secret: self-assurance doesn’t work.

    It never has and never will for any manufacturer or contractor but clients and customers keep trying to flog this dead horse because they can’t be arsed doing or paying for proper independent due diligence.

    And some just don’t think they should.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Sandpit said:

    If the government is intending to continue to ignore that its preferred solution has been defeated twice by record-breaking margins, looked set to be defeated again and now has to change before it is allowed back to Parliament, you do have to conclude that it has lost any remaining contact with reality.

    I rarely agree with you on Brexit, Alastair, but I think you’re spot on with that comment.

    Given the deal is a dodo, and an extension is looking unlikely as we can’t decide what it’s for, we have two options left.

    1. Revoke A50, followed by an immediate election
    2. No deal, spend the next few months sorting out the mess followed by a summer election.

    The MPs collectively and individually need to grow a pair and make a decision, then be held accountable for that decision by the electorate.
    Forget revoke. That’s never going to happen. The fact many Remainers want it to doesn’t mean it will. The Conservatives are absolutely built on Brexit at the moment and any revocation destroys the Government and hands power to Labour.

    Given that Parliament has decisively rejected No Deal she can only offer two choices: her deal so MPs can decide or ratify or to put the decision back to the electorate.

    I think if she framed it like that the deal might pass.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Story in the Guardian this morning:
    'that Universities have raised the alarm about the potential loss of hundreds of millions of pounds worth of EU grants from the UK in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

    They warned that life-changing research “could be days away from stalling” and urged the government to set up contingency plans to protect UK access to research funding.

    Researchers who have submitted applications for the latest round of funding from the European Research Council (ERC) say they are still in the dark about what will happen to their submissions in the case of no deal.

    Candidates are due to find out by 8 April whether they have been awarded ERC advanced grants, and the next round for applications opens on 21 May. The government has not yet explained how it will ensure current applications are funded if the UK leaves without a deal.'

    I don't ever recall this country being in such a mess. Suez and the three day week were bad enough but at least the Parliament was coherent, and there were suggestions for going forward.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    philiph said:

    If the government is intending to continue to ignore that its preferred solution has been defeated twice by record-breaking margins, looked set to be defeated again and now has to change before it is allowed back to Parliament, you do have to conclude that it has lost any remaining contact with reality.

    To be fair most governments have a limited contact with reality. For this government they don't even know what reality is, was or will be. Offering Mr O. Robbins as a prize I assume as a proxy for our PM after the weekend phone conversations indicated a basic failure to recognise reality in any form.
    Yes, and not good form. If someone demands you quit there are three reasonable answers:

    1. You're right, I quit.
    2. I'm not planning to quit, but let's discuss what makes you say that and see if I can address it.
    3. Get stuffed.

    A reasonable answer is not:
    4. I'm not quitting, but I can sack my assistant.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rcs1000 said:

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    I can't really see anybody outside of the Labour MPs who voted for May's deal and maybe a couple of others campaigning for it. A couple like Kate Hoey maybe who want a no deal but the vast majority of the party would prefer remain to May's deal given a choice of what to campaign for.
    I really don't see how there can be a referendum at this stage without a "no deal exit" option. It's polling well in excess of "deal"
    On that basis there needs to be a "Remain" option too - as that's outpolling each of the other two.

    How about everyone gets three options on the ballot paper

    Remain vs No Deal
    No Deal vs Deal
    Deal vs Remain

    Now, unless something truly extraordinary happens, one option will win against both others. That will be - IIRC - the Condorcet Winner.

    So: Remain vs No Deal could go either way.
    No Deal vs Deal will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    Deal vs Remain will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    I think polling is way behind the shift in opinion towards remain. People are now just assuming you support remain when the subject is talked about.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    An extension for extensions sake (to avoid no deal) is just a big waste of time.
    If we don't want no deal, just revoke.
    If we want a second referendum have one long enough to get that done.

    Just pick something already. Even I, as a massive political wonk are getting just a tiny bit bored of this, and the idea of another twelve months of naval gazing and political paralysis in the country doesn't fill me with joy. All that will happen is that we'll be back in the same boat twelve months from now.

    Yes, I rather agree. This is a bit like those Trotskyist tactics to spin out meetings until everyone else goes home, then passing their favourite motion.

    Incidentally, I heard a funny and apparently true story about a Swansea constituency Labour Party meeting in 1939, the day after war was declared. The executive had put "How should Swansea tackle the war effort?" on the agenda as an emergency motion, but discussing "Minutes of the last meeting", "Officers' Reports", etc., took so long that the item was never reached.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    We need to know what the DUP think. If the deal has a majority, then somehow, the deal we will get.

    This would be the deal that is less popular with parliament than Charles I?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    If the government is intending to continue to ignore that its preferred solution has been defeated twice by record-breaking margins, looked set to be defeated again and now has to change before it is allowed back to Parliament, you do have to conclude that it has lost any remaining contact with reality.

    I rarely agree with you on Brexit, Alastair, but I think you’re spot on with that comment.

    Given the deal is a dodo, and an extension is looking unlikely as we can’t decide what it’s for, we have two options left.

    1. Revoke A50, followed by an immediate election
    2. No deal, spend the next few months sorting out the mess followed by a summer election.

    The MPs collectively and individually need to grow a pair and make a decision, then be held accountable for that decision by the electorate.
    Does there need to be a general election? We've seen in the case of the Major and Brown successions that for most voters, a new Prime Minister is as good as a rest. Could there be a third option: revoke or extend Article 50; establish the commission to shape Brexit that Cameron and then May should have done in 2016; resign or at least announce a retirement date?

    The underlying problem is not that the government cannot ram an unpopular policy through parliament, which might be fixed by a May landslide although that is probably not on the cards, but that there is no agreement on what is our Brexit destination, let alone a plausible route to get there. Slogans and complacency and a belief in British exceptionalism are not enough when faced with EU (or American or Japanese) negotiators who do this for a living.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    rcs1000 said:

    Can someone tell me what this 9 - 12 month delay is actually for ?

    The withdrawal agreement is sealed and not to be reopened, there is no majority for it to pass, May has a stablish majority in the commons and in no rush for an election.

    Is she thinking of going to the country on a remain / deal ?

    Would she get a referendum through the house and if so, would Labour campaign against her "evil tory brexit"

    I can't really see anybody outside of the Labour MPs who voted for May's deal and maybe a couple of others campaigning for it. A couple like Kate Hoey maybe who want a no deal but the vast majority of the party would prefer remain to May's deal given a choice of what to campaign for.
    I really don't see how there can be a referendum at this stage without a "no deal exit" option. It's polling well in excess of "deal"
    On that basis there needs to be a "Remain" option too - as that's outpolling each of the other two.

    How about everyone gets three options on the ballot paper

    Remain vs No Deal
    No Deal vs Deal
    Deal vs Remain

    Now, unless something truly extraordinary happens, one option will win against both others. That will be - IIRC - the Condorcet Winner.

    So: Remain vs No Deal could go either way.
    No Deal vs Deal will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    Deal vs Remain will probably (but not definitely) go with Deal.
    I think polling is way behind the shift in opinion towards remain. People are now just assuming you support remain when the subject is talked about.
    At the least, all except the true believer leavers are very quiet nowadays.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited March 2019
    Sandpit said:

    If the government is intending to continue to ignore that its preferred solution has been defeated twice by record-breaking margins, looked set to be defeated again and now has to change before it is allowed back to Parliament, you do have to conclude that it has lost any remaining contact with reality.

    I rarely agree with you on Brexit, Alastair, but I think you’re spot on with that comment.

    Given the deal is a dodo, and an extension is looking unlikely as we can’t decide what it’s for, we have two options left.

    1. Revoke A50, followed by an immediate election
    2. No deal, spend the next few months sorting out the mess followed by a summer election.

    The MPs collectively and individually need to grow a pair and make a decision, then be held accountable for that decision by the electorate.
    There are a couple of problems with selecting your options 1 or 2.

    1 Revoke: this embeds is in the situation we were in at the time of the referendum. It therefore keeps all the elements that caused the anti euro feelings. It keeps us in an unsatisfactory half in half out situation, which is bound to cause angst and opportunities for anti EU sentement. We would be doing the same thing again and expecting a different result. Is there a word for that?

    2 no deal. We aren't in any way ready for that.

    Add 3. Revoke and join in fully, euro schengen etc.
This discussion has been closed.