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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades and is do

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades and is doing so again

“Oh what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive.”

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    edited March 2019
    Horribly honest and painful article to read. Well written.

    We're just back from Germany for a family funeral. What struck me was that Brexit was covered on TV, but not on the news, only on the comedy programmes. (With one exception - the Germans couldn't get enough of John Bercow on Monday) Germany can't believe how we would trigger A50 with all its consequences and be unable to articulate anything that we actually want, so we've had the pleasure of sketches such as 'Britain goes shopping' and 'Britain goes on holiday' and you'll guess the punchlines a long way off.

    Personally I've just had it with May; she is so inflexible that even now it's Gvt policy to ask for an extension, actually doing so seems totally beyond her. Zero flexibility and salesmanship. I can't help thinking that even in the short term, she should let someone with more energy and vision take the reins as she looks like a rabbit in the headlights at the moment.

    If I was the EU, I would combine Cyclefree's 3 points above (General Election / renegotiate with different red lines / 2nd ref) and the offer would be that the UK only gets an extension by the Gvt committing to one of these 3. The UK's choice and they don't have to decide which straight away. But actually force Theresa May to commit to something that will get towards a conclusion, rather than recycling the Meaningful Vote for yet another appearance.

    Anyway, enough for one night. Sleep well anyone else on the late shift.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    You sleep well too. And thank you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited March 2019
    Thanks for the header, Cyclefree. Great as always.
  • BrontosaurusBrontosaurus Posts: 4
    edited March 2019
    Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.
  • I should also add that monetary union has led to the huge imbalance between the German and Mediterranean economies. Italy wouldn’t be in the current situation were it outside the Euro. France has suffered. Greece too. This in turn has led to an increase in populism. If you think that an increase in the Far Right, vastly greater poverty and countries trapped and unable to recover their self worth is a sign of success then I find that very bizarre.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    I think there's been a mis-match from the beginning - initially obscured by our dire economic performance - but as that improved the differences became more obvious.

    rcs1000 posted a great link in the run up to the referendum by a Nobel Physicist who argued that over time the British constitution has developed a series of checks & balances and 'error control' where mistakes, when they inevitably happen get put right - via parliament or the courts (common law).

    Most of Europe - and the EU, (which is still very young, so hasn't had much opportunity to do this) - have much more limited experience with democracy and a different legal tradition. Its greatest strength - the Treaties to hold the whole thing together - are also its greatest weakness - limited to no flexibility.

    We've seen this in the negotiation, after a fashion - Britain 'lets bodge a deal' - EU 'These are the rules. Full stop.'

    It's not a case of 'right or wrong' (and goodness knows the British could have done a much better job drafting things rather than leaving it to the EU), but of different approaches and world views. Should we expect them to give up theirs? Of course not. Should we give up ours? Why? Leave were not alone in setting out a dishonest prospectus - Remain's "status quo" was never and will never be on offer.

    Staying in won't change that - and as Mr Verhofstadt has argued there needs to be a "two speed' Europe - Full membership (Euro, fiscal transfers etc etc) and Associated Members (which is as far as we'd ever get.) If that is their future then we might be better friends to stand aside and let them get on with it rather than acting as a turbulent and truculent sheet anchor on their ambitions.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited March 2019

    We've seen this in the negotiation, after a fashion - Britain 'lets bodge a deal' - EU 'These are the rules. Full stop.'

    I don't think that's quite right: All the treaties are "let's bodge a deal", as is every budget negotiation etc.

    The times you're seeing "These are the rules. Full stop" are the times when a single member state is voting that it wants all the other countries to do something for it, with nothing much in return. That's what happened with the Greeks, who wanted Germans and Finns to pay for their pensions, and the Swiss, who wanted to rip up the free movement "quid" of their existing agreement with the EU without any particular "pro quo", and the British, who wanted... well, what the British wanted is complicated.

    The only reason these things are even discussed at all is because they get domestic popular mandates from the countries that want them. It's easy to get these mandates if you can persuade your government to call a vote on them, because the campaigns for them only need to involve the wishes of one side of the negotiation, but obviously once you do they're impossible to deliver, because the votes of voters in one country don't bind the governments of the other 27.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.

    Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    My biggest worry about May is that she doesn't possess any of the politicians' core skill of being able to finesse a change in her position.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Guardian: An adviser involved in one of the campaigns said: “You have cabinet ministers going round offering people jobs and May has not even resigned yet. It is fair to say the race is already under way.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.

    Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
    And the Conservative party is likely to fall apart well before the EU ‘collapses’ as per the Faragist dream.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/19/tory-mps-vow-to-quit-party-if-boris-johnson-becomes-leader
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.

    Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
    And the Conservative party is likely to fall apart well before the EU ‘collapses’ as per the Faragist dream.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/19/tory-mps-vow-to-quit-party-if-boris-johnson-becomes-leader
    Boris won't make the final 2....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.

    Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
    And the Conservative party is likely to fall apart well before the EU ‘collapses’ as per the Faragist dream.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/19/tory-mps-vow-to-quit-party-if-boris-johnson-becomes-leader
    Boris won't make the final 2....
    Could the current fiasco get worse?

    Hold my pint says the Tory membership. Lets put the clown prince in charge.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Fantastic article, bravo
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    On topic, I'm not sure monetary union can be defined as a success.

    Off topic, as long as the police have time to investigate this sort of thing, I'll have no sympathy for those saying we need more police:

    https://tinyurl.com/y2thrv25

    A devout Catholic and mother of five has been asked to attend a police interview after being accused of using the wrong pronoun to describe a transgender girl.

    Caroline Farrow was contacted by officers from the Surrey force to inform her they were investigating an allegation that she had made transphobic comments on Twitter.

    Mrs Farrow is being investigated for a possible hate crime under the malicious communication act, an offence that carries a maximum two-year prison sentence.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    I should also add that monetary union has led to the huge imbalance between the German and Mediterranean economies. Italy wouldn’t be in the current situation were it outside the Euro. France has suffered. Greece too. This in turn has led to an increase in populism. If you think that an increase in the Far Right, vastly greater poverty and countries trapped and unable to recover their self worth is a sign of success then I find that very bizarre.

    Populist reactions to globalisation are not restricted to EU countries. Indeed what we see in Trumps USA, Bolsanaro in Brazil, Putin's Russia and Duterete's Philippines makes European Populism look quite benign.

    Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Eurozone and/or the EU are a Faragist delusion. Both look likely to significantly outlast the United Kingdom as political structures
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    It’s amazing to watch this video. Davis was so spectacularly wrong. He had absolutely no idea. All he had was complacent prejudice borne out of years of not doing any hard work to research the subject he thought he was an expert in. The Europeans would fold because they’re Europeans. That was it. When people claim it needed a Brexiteer to negotiate Brexit show them this.

    https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1108155476011900928?s=21
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732
    Foxy said:

    I should also add that monetary union has led to the huge imbalance between the German and Mediterranean economies. Italy wouldn’t be in the current situation were it outside the Euro. France has suffered. Greece too. This in turn has led to an increase in populism. If you think that an increase in the Far Right, vastly greater poverty and countries trapped and unable to recover their self worth is a sign of success then I find that very bizarre.

    Populist reactions to globalisation are not restricted to EU countries. Indeed what we see in Trumps USA, Bolsanaro in Brazil, Putin's Russia and Duterete's Philippines makes European Populism look quite benign.

    Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Eurozone and/or the EU are a Faragist delusion. Both look likely to significantly outlast the United Kingdom as political structures
    You forgot Chavez and Modi.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Good piece, but the option discussed by Evan Davis of reaching across the house to make the political declaration beefed up to be more customs Uniony is also there. If May and Corbyn both whip for the MV, it passed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.

    Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
    And the Conservative party is likely to fall apart well before the EU ‘collapses’ as per the Faragist dream.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/19/tory-mps-vow-to-quit-party-if-boris-johnson-becomes-leader
    Boris won't make the final 2....
    That is hardly the only circumstance in which the party begins to disintegrate.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    edited March 2019
    A very fine article. We have been deluding ourselves for years. Brexit and all it will deliver are the consequences. Today, we have less control over our future than we have ever had in my lifetime. The heads of 27 foreign governments get to decide our fate. Once that is decided, we will spend years being told by various countries and blocs what trade deals we can have and what standards we must follow to get them. Such is the fate of a medium-sized country that has decided that it is a much bigger and more important world player than it really is.
    #noussommesDavidDavis
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019
    This concept that the EU is about to collapse has been a key British delusion since 2015. The EU has major structural problems, but as written below, if we Leave, the UK's structural, constitutional and political legitimacy problems will be worse, with two of its four nations in limbo.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    It’s amazing to watch this video. Davis was so spectacularly wrong. He had absolutely no idea. All he had was complacent prejudice borne out of years of not doing any hard work to research the subject he thought he was an expert in. The Europeans would fold because they’re Europeans. That was it. When people claim it needed a Brexiteer to negotiate Brexit show them this.

    https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1108155476011900928?s=21

    DD was in charge, but too lazy and complacent to negotiate.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    ‪David Davis is Brexit Britain personified. It’s not the shambolic, self-interested Johnson, the mendacious, self-interested Gove or the rapacious, self-interested Rees Mogg. No, it’s the entirely clueless Davis, who believes winging it is a credible substitute for hard work and that Europeans will always cave because they are, well, foreign and so lacking in the steely strength and wisdom all Brits (read the English) naturally possess. He is a walking, talking delusion.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    Scott_P said:
    As ever - and completely predictably - May puts her party before her country.

  • So another day of total lack of clarity, with both sides unclear of their future course of action, with nine days to go. This is now becoming genuinely worrying.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Good thread:

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1108070326443880448

    Have James Kanagasooria & AlanBrooke ever been seen in the same room?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732

    So another day of total lack of clarity, with both sides unclear of their future course of action, with nine days to go. This is now becoming genuinely worrying.

    Ultimately, I am afraid that by twice rejecting the only deal on offer for reasons that don't even remotely stand up to scrutiny, Parliament has now driven us to no deal.

    The irony is that it is a mixture of rabid Leavers who want to leave with no deal to inflict maximum damage on the EU, and equally rabid Remainers who are overwhelmingly arrogant and self righteous and think we will revoke it we get this far, who have driven us to it.

    But sadly given the circumstances it isn't funny. The damage to just about everything will be substantial.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.

    Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
    And the Conservative party is likely to fall apart well before the EU ‘collapses’ as per the Faragist dream.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/19/tory-mps-vow-to-quit-party-if-boris-johnson-becomes-leader
    Boris won't make the final 2....
    Could the current fiasco get worse?

    Hold my pint says the Tory membership. Lets put the clown prince in charge.
    I’m expecting more sanity from Tory MPs than from the membership - if Boris gets in the final 2 I’ve probably lost £1k or so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.

    Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
    And the Conservative party is likely to fall apart well before the EU ‘collapses’ as per the Faragist dream.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/19/tory-mps-vow-to-quit-party-if-boris-johnson-becomes-leader
    Boris won't make the final 2....
    Could the current fiasco get worse?

    Hold my pint says the Tory membership. Lets put the clown prince in charge.
    I’m expecting more sanity from Tory MPs than from the membership - if Boris gets in the final 2 I’ve probably lost £1k or so.
    If that's all you lose under a Boris premiership and the chaos that would cause, you will still be one of the lucky ones.

    And he would still be better than Corbyn.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Scott_P said:
    Everything they are doing is designed to simply force May’s deal through. There’s no attempt at compromise, no attempt at reconciliation.

    It’s pathetic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Excellent post, Ms Cyclefree. Rancour-free, well judged.

    I think this, the penultimate paragraph is one which we should seriously think about:
    "But the real risk may well be that the EU no longer wants Britain back, that what it has seen of Britain – in close up – over the last two years and particularly over the last few months has saddened, angered and infuriated it so much, its patience has been so exhausted, that it would prefer to take the hit of a messy exit rather than accommodate Britain any more, other than on the EU’s own terms.'

    We have the situation in which the only thing the British Government appears to agree upon, as representative of us, the people of the UK is that we want 'Out'.

    Very well, go and be damned to you! You have resigned; we are therefore happy to act in the interest of our members.
    And that is the interests of all our members, including those very close to you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Excellent post, Ms Cyclefree. Rancour-free, well judged.

    I think this, the penultimate paragraph is one which we should seriously think about:
    "But the real risk may well be that the EU no longer wants Britain back, that what it has seen of Britain – in close up – over the last two years and particularly over the last few months has saddened, angered and infuriated it so much, its patience has been so exhausted, that it would prefer to take the hit of a messy exit rather than accommodate Britain any more, other than on the EU’s own terms.'

    We have the situation in which the only thing the British Government appears to agree upon, as representative of us, the people of the UK is that we want 'Out'.

    Very well, go and be damned to you! You have resigned; we are therefore happy to act in the interest of our members.
    And that is the interests of all our members, including those very close to you.

    Yet, sad to say, Tony Blair (last night on Newsnight) is right; the issues that led to Brexit are not unique to the UK and it would be in Europe's interests to face them as well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.

    Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
    And the Conservative party is likely to fall apart well before the EU ‘collapses’ as per the Faragist dream.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/19/tory-mps-vow-to-quit-party-if-boris-johnson-becomes-leader
    Boris won't make the final 2....
    Could the current fiasco get worse?

    Hold my pint says the Tory membership. Lets put the clown prince in charge.
    I’m expecting more sanity from Tory MPs than from the membership - if Boris gets in the final 2 I’ve probably lost £1k or so.
    I hope you are right. But if we had sanity from Tory MPs we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.
  • IanB2 said:

    Excellent post, Ms Cyclefree. Rancour-free, well judged.

    I think this, the penultimate paragraph is one which we should seriously think about:
    "But the real risk may well be that the EU no longer wants Britain back, that what it has seen of Britain – in close up – over the last two years and particularly over the last few months has saddened, angered and infuriated it so much, its patience has been so exhausted, that it would prefer to take the hit of a messy exit rather than accommodate Britain any more, other than on the EU’s own terms.'

    We have the situation in which the only thing the British Government appears to agree upon, as representative of us, the people of the UK is that we want 'Out'.

    Very well, go and be damned to you! You have resigned; we are therefore happy to act in the interest of our members.
    And that is the interests of all our members, including those very close to you.

    Yet, sad to say, Tony Blair (last night on Newsnight) is right; the issues that led to Brexit are not unique to the UK and it would be in Europe's interests to face them as well.
    However, in Europe, as often mentioned, it's non-EU immigration that's the main issue, not EU immigration. Blair continually misses this.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Excellent post, Ms Cyclefree. Rancour-free, well judged.

    I think this, the penultimate paragraph is one which we should seriously think about:
    "But the real risk may well be that the EU no longer wants Britain back, that what it has seen of Britain – in close up – over the last two years and particularly over the last few months has saddened, angered and infuriated it so much, its patience has been so exhausted, that it would prefer to take the hit of a messy exit rather than accommodate Britain any more, other than on the EU’s own terms.'

    We have the situation in which the only thing the British Government appears to agree upon, as representative of us, the people of the UK is that we want 'Out'.

    Very well, go and be damned to you! You have resigned; we are therefore happy to act in the interest of our members.
    And that is the interests of all our members, including those very close to you.

    Yet, sad to say, Tony Blair (last night on Newsnight) is right; the issues that led to Brexit are not unique to the UK and it would be in Europe's interests to face them as well.
    However, in Europe, as often mentioned, it's non-EU immigration that's the main issue, not EU immigration. Blair continually misses this.
    None of the main populist parties or groups in western europe raise EU immigration as a leading issue.

    Apologies for the extra post and self-quote - not what I intended !
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    IanB2 said:

    Excellent post, Ms Cyclefree. Rancour-free, well judged.

    I think this, the penultimate paragraph is one which we should seriously think about:
    "But the real risk may well be that the EU no longer wants Britain back, that what it has seen of Britain – in close up – over the last two years and particularly over the last few months has saddened, angered and infuriated it so much, its patience has been so exhausted, that it would prefer to take the hit of a messy exit rather than accommodate Britain any more, other than on the EU’s own terms.'

    We have the situation in which the only thing the British Government appears to agree upon, as representative of us, the people of the UK is that we want 'Out'.

    Very well, go and be damned to you! You have resigned; we are therefore happy to act in the interest of our members.
    And that is the interests of all our members, including those very close to you.

    Yet, sad to say, Tony Blair (last night on Newsnight) is right; the issues that led to Brexit are not unique to the UK and it would be in Europe's interests to face them as well.
    However, in Europe, as often mentioned, it's non-EU immigration that's the main issue, not EU immigration. Blair continually misses this.
    That's right; and immigration seems to have slid down the list of concerns as that from outside the EU rises and that from within falls.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732
    IanB2 said:

    Excellent post, Ms Cyclefree. Rancour-free, well judged.

    I think this, the penultimate paragraph is one which we should seriously think about:
    "But the real risk may well be that the EU no longer wants Britain back, that what it has seen of Britain – in close up – over the last two years and particularly over the last few months has saddened, angered and infuriated it so much, its patience has been so exhausted, that it would prefer to take the hit of a messy exit rather than accommodate Britain any more, other than on the EU’s own terms.'

    We have the situation in which the only thing the British Government appears to agree upon, as representative of us, the people of the UK is that we want 'Out'.

    Very well, go and be damned to you! You have resigned; we are therefore happy to act in the interest of our members.
    And that is the interests of all our members, including those very close to you.

    Yet, sad to say, Tony Blair (last night on Newsnight) is right; the issues that led to Brexit are not unique to the UK and it would be in Europe's interests to face them as well.
    Indeed. I'm not going to say the EU needs us more than we do them - that would be wrong - but they really do need us. We forced them to face awkward facts about their project that they much preferred to kick under the carpet, and when they overruled us over, say, Juncker, BSE and bank bailouts, time has usually proven them wrong.

    Without us, I suspect they will be content to drift serenely from one avoidable mess to the next. Which will not be helpful for anyone.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Good morning PB - Without a legal change we are now 9 days from leaving the EU with or without a deal!!!

    Have a lovely day. :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It’s amazing to watch this video. Davis was so spectacularly wrong. He had absolutely no idea. All he had was complacent prejudice borne out of years of not doing any hard work to research the subject he thought he was an expert in. The Europeans would fold because they’re Europeans. That was it. When people claim it needed a Brexiteer to negotiate Brexit show them this.

    Danny the Fink's column today is about the inherent problems with Brexit, like the Irish border, won't be solved by replacing May.

    The comments are full of Brexit voters stating unequivocally that a headbanger in charge would solve all the problems...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    It’s amazing to watch this video. Davis was so spectacularly wrong. He had absolutely no idea. All he had was complacent prejudice borne out of years of not doing any hard work to research the subject he thought he was an expert in. The Europeans would fold because they’re Europeans. That was it. When people claim it needed a Brexiteer to negotiate Brexit show them this.

    https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1108155476011900928?s=21

    The guy next to him on the platform seems to be finding more inspiration from detailed study of the ceiling.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732
    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB - Without a legal change we are now 9 days from leaving the EU with or without a deal!!!

    Have a lovely day. :)

    FTFY.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Scott_P said:

    It’s amazing to watch this video. Davis was so spectacularly wrong. He had absolutely no idea. All he had was complacent prejudice borne out of years of not doing any hard work to research the subject he thought he was an expert in. The Europeans would fold because they’re Europeans. That was it. When people claim it needed a Brexiteer to negotiate Brexit show them this.

    Danny the Fink's column today is about the inherent problems with Brexit, like the Irish border, won't be solved by replacing May.

    The comments are full of Brexit voters stating unequivocally that a headbanger in charge would solve all the problems...
    A headbanger would have driven away sufficient of his or her Tory party colleagues that it may well have led to a resolution by now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759
    There is much in the thread header that I agree with. The dishonesty, self delusion and general incompetence of our political class did not start with May, even if the current Parliament has moved it onto a new level.

    Where I slightly disagree with the tone and attitude is that the UK has by no means cornered the market in political stupidity and self delusion. There has been plenty of that on the EU side of the fence as well. This is not good news because it means that we cannot expect the EU to act in a way which we consider self evidently in their interests (German car makers anyone?). They are more than capable of matching our delusions despite the heroic efforts of Westminster.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732
    Scott_P said:

    It’s amazing to watch this video. Davis was so spectacularly wrong. He had absolutely no idea. All he had was complacent prejudice borne out of years of not doing any hard work to research the subject he thought he was an expert in. The Europeans would fold because they’re Europeans. That was it. When people claim it needed a Brexiteer to negotiate Brexit show them this.

    Danny the Fink's column today is about the inherent problems with Brexit, like the Irish border, won't be solved by replacing May.

    The comments are full of Brexit voters stating unequivocally that a headbanger in charge would solve all the problems...
    Well, there might be some truth in that. If the Jezaster or BoJo I doubt if we would be worrying about the EU. Finding something to eat or burning paper money to keep warm would displace it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    The lack of understanding is significant, and two-way traffic. Plus the political class have always been more sceptical in opposition whilst pro-EU in office. Constantly giving away vetoes and authority to Brussels without recourse to the electorate for approval was dubious, and promising a referendum then reneging bloody stupid (as well as dishonest).

    Of course, the greater share of blame for that, particularly the latter, lies with UK politicians rather than EU bureaucrats. Shade ironic.

    I do have some sympathy with the EU over May's endless can-kicking and incompetence, and agree that just a rambling extension for no reason is daft.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Terrific article, Cyclefree. Really top notch piece.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    So.. the hurdles now facing tMay:

    1. Going and asking for a “short” extension from a body that was offering one for legislative tidiness once a Deal was agreed. I can’t see it being offered unless MV3 passes by next Fri.

    2. Asking Bercow to stop implementing long-standing convention (or “dicking around”, depending on you POV), when it seems unlikely that her motion will materially change (because she’s taking long delay/Ref2/GE off the table).

    3. Time to see the whites of the 800+ eyes whose MP owners voted to “take No Deal off the table” last week.

    4. Need to explain to wavering “no Deal better than a bad deal” types why they shouldn’t just spring back to anti-Deal, now that long extension is “off the table”.

    I appreciate that doesn’t take account of “events, dear boy”, especially last-minute fudgey ones... but even so it’s hard to see a way through that lot, before we even get started on the legislative pitfalls of SIs and laws needed to do anything.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    I sort of wish the EU would refuse this short extension. It might force the minds of our politicians to actually come to a final decision. The EU must be so fed up of us now.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Lovely photo-essay on the Irish border:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2019-irish-border/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759
    chloe said:

    I sort of wish the EU would refuse this short extension. It might force the minds of our politicians to actually come to a final decision. The EU must be so fed up of us now.

    I think that there must be a good chance of them refusing the extension unless the UK approves the WA. A short period to make up for the incompetence in failing to have the legislation etc in place to implement the deal would now be sensible. A further period in which our politicians can grandstand and pontificate endlessly to no purpose is simply not acceptable.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited March 2019
    So what I'd imagine to happen now is that even with a short delay, Parliament will kick out May's deal again, take over and impose its own strategy. They will just have to move fast.

    Although bedevilled by a goddam awful parliamentary party, Theresa May has been absolutely dreadful. The worst kind of school headmistress: incapable of listening to others or bringing them on board. At a time when the smooth charm of a Blair or Clinton would have sorted this, we've ended up with a bot.

    Nightmare.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    Fantastic article, sadly correct in every regard. How low we have been brought by the toxic delusions of Tory politicians. I agree that it is now up to the EU to end this, we have no functioning government to make any decisions on this side of the channel. Vassal State indeed.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,865
    edited March 2019
    Thank you Ms Cyclefree. Up to now I have only been a lurker, but your perceptive and realistic post has finally prompted me to comment.

    It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her supporters acting to arrange for her to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.

    I don’t hold out much hope. I think we will end up exiting with no deal on March 29th because nobody can provide the statesmanship to broker a deal that can gain the support of enough people. Relying on the DUP is just wrong. The pork barrel negotiations with a party still linked to terrorism is unedifying.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    The presumption is extension will be granted, because of the way the room is set up, because the EU staffers like Barnier see the need for extension, to support Ireland etc.

    It seems to be set up against the 'one nation breaking ranks' for outcome

    The risk seems to me to be that May's pitch and demands, even, go down so badly, a la Salzburg (was it?), that this turns into Del Boy Trotter's Masonic Lodge application.

    I'd rate extension being granted at 75%.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Parliament will kick out May's deal again, take over and impose its own strategy.

    How, exactly?

    You keep writing this without explaining how the legislature becomes the executive.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732

    So what I'd imagine to happen now is that even with a short delay, Parliament will kick out May's deal again, take over and impose its own strategy. They will just have to move fast.

    The whole problem from the beginning has been that Parliament doesn't have a strategy. Nor do any of the Opposition parties (Corbyn doesn't even know whether he wants a referendum yet). The ERG do, but it's a mad strategy.

    The reason May is still in charge is because she does have a strategy. The reason it's going nowhere is because the headbangers on all sides are unwilling to go with it, but equally clueless at coming up with alternatives.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Consensus seems to be that May has caved to the headbangers, again.

    If the EU refuse a short delay, we crash out.

    Champers all round at Jacob's house.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732

    It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her supporters acting to arrange for her to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.

    As there is no such person available, what difference would it make if May left? She is not the problem. MPs are the problem.

    I repeat, they need to grow up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759

    Thank you Ms Cyclefree. Up to now I have only been a lurker, but your perceptive and realistic post has finally prompted me to comment.

    It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her acing to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.

    I don’t hold out much hope. I think we will end up exiting with no deal on March 29th because nobody can provide the statesmanship to broker a deal that can gain the support of enough people. Relying on the DUP is just wrong. The pork barrel negotiations with a party still linked to terrorism is unedifying.

    Welcome. May I suggest, however, that your first post pays very little attention to the Parliamentary arithmetic? You cannot ignore the DUP when you need them for a majority (although May is so incompetent she tried). You cannot form a majority without the Tory party or the DUP. There is no majority for the Tory party in the HoC since May lost it in 2017. It is far from clear who this person capable of rising above self-deception might be and even less clear how they get elected Tory leader/PM.

    Keep chipping in though. The more voices the better.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Consensus seems to be that May has caved to the headbangers, again.

    If the EU refuse a short delay, we crash out.

    Champers all round at Jacob's house.

    However, there's likely to be time between the EU refusing a short delay and the possibility of a change of course. In fact I don't think it will do it any other way. However little time we end up having, it still wants to concentrate minds, rather than no-deal.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759
    ydoethur said:

    It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her supporters acting to arrange for her to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.

    As there is no such person available, what difference would it make if May left? She is not the problem. MPs are the problem.

    I repeat, they need to grow up.
    I think suggesting May is not the problem is overstating it but replacing her is almost certainly not the solution, at least in the next 9 days.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    If I was running EU, I would say - you can have a 2 year extension. You can cancel it at any time by either agreeing a deal or revoking - but we are not wasting any more time discussing things. And at end of 2 years that is it. You are out.

    If I was running UK I would hold an immediate GE with the main purpose to evict the disruptive headbangers on both sides. Then schedule a referendum for 18 months time - take the first 12 months to properly agree a question - ie revoke or Deal (to be defined) - and then campaign for 6 months. The referendum result to be legally binding and so implemented without further debate.

    Next...
  • Scott_P said:
    Exactly why the EU won't allow a blanket short extension, with no detail.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732

    Scott_P said:

    Consensus seems to be that May has caved to the headbangers, again.

    If the EU refuse a short delay, we crash out.

    Champers all round at Jacob's house.

    However, there's likely to be time between the EU refusing a short delay and the possibility of a change of course. In fact I don't think it will do it any other way. However little time we end up having, it still wants to concentrate minds, rather than no-deal.
    I think the only way forward now is a binary vote in Parliament. Instead of 'Aye' or 'No' the lobbies should be labelled 'Deal' or 'Alternative' - whether that is Deal or no deal.

    One would win, and it would be implemented. Then we could get on with our lives.

    But it will never happen. Too many people are trying to avoid making a decision they fear will be unpopular and cost them their seats. They can't see that's happening anyway because of their dithering and dishonesty.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    "Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."

    Bollocks.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    Consensus seems to be that May has caved to the headbangers, again.

    If the EU refuse a short delay, we crash out.

    Champers all round at Jacob's house.

    However, there's likely to be time between the EU refusing a short delay and the possibility of a change of course. In fact I don't think it will do it any other way. However little time we end up having, it still wants to concentrate minds, rather than no-deal.
    I think the only way forward now is a binary vote in Parliament. Instead of 'Aye' or 'No' the lobbies should be labelled 'Deal' or 'Alternative' - whether that is Deal or no deal.

    One would win, and it would be implemented. Then we could get on with our lives.

    But it will never happen. Too many people are trying to avoid making a decision they fear will be unpopular and cost them their seats. They can't see that's happening anyway because of their dithering and dishonesty.
    I think the answer is very simple. The referendum should be deal or revocation. Those are the only two viable options in the time we have.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her supporters acting to arrange for her to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.

    As there is no such person available, what difference would it make if May left? She is not the problem. MPs are the problem.

    I repeat, they need to grow up.
    I think suggesting May is not the problem is overstating it but replacing her is almost certainly not the solution, at least in the next 9 days.
    Let me rephrase that. At this particular point in time, she is not the only or even the most significant problem. The issue is Parliament behaving like a bunch of spoiled two year olds.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,732

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    Consensus seems to be that May has caved to the headbangers, again.

    If the EU refuse a short delay, we crash out.

    Champers all round at Jacob's house.

    However, there's likely to be time between the EU refusing a short delay and the possibility of a change of course. In fact I don't think it will do it any other way. However little time we end up having, it still wants to concentrate minds, rather than no-deal.
    I think the only way forward now is a binary vote in Parliament. Instead of 'Aye' or 'No' the lobbies should be labelled 'Deal' or 'Alternative' - whether that is Deal or no deal.

    One would win, and it would be implemented. Then we could get on with our lives.

    But it will never happen. Too many people are trying to avoid making a decision they fear will be unpopular and cost them their seats. They can't see that's happening anyway because of their dithering and dishonesty.
    I think the answer is very simple. The referendum should be deal or revocation. Those are the two viable options in the time we have.
    I said 'a binary vote in Parliament.' I am not talking about a referendum. There isn't time for one. Even if there was, the odds are that it would cause more problems than it would solve.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Good piece, but the option discussed by Evan Davis of reaching across the house to make the political declaration beefed up to be more customs Uniony is also there. If May and Corbyn both whip for the MV, it passed.

    Corbyn doesn't want the MV passing he wants the Tories defeated. That is all he cares about. Even if she reached across the house he would find any excuse not to pass it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Scott_P said:
    As ever - and completely predictably - May puts her party before her country.

    How do you figure that?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    O/T

    The UK is the happiest country in the world with more than 37 million people (Canada) according to this report.

    https://news.sky.com/story/can-you-guess-which-countries-are-the-worlds-happiest-11670427
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. eek, so May says.

    She's managed to, impressively, achieve a reputation for both changing her mind and being too bloody stubborn. So who knows what she'll actually do?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    "Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."

    Bollocks.

    Impeccable logic, as ever.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Pulpstar said:

    Good piece, but the option discussed by Evan Davis of reaching across the house to make the political declaration beefed up to be more customs Uniony is also there. If May and Corbyn both whip for the MV, it passed.

    Corbyn doesn't want the MV passing he wants the Tories defeated. That is all he cares about. Even if she reached across the house he would find any excuse not to pass it.
    This is correct. And far too many other Labour MPs don't want to be seen as "splitters" who help the Tories.

    It's largely a moot point anyway as the political declaration isn't the end-point FTA. It could easily be amended by a future Labour Government that took office this year or next year.

    Corbyn simply believes he will profit politically from the chaos.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Excellent post from Patrick Wintour. May is once again over-reaching with quasi-presidential assumptions, and simultaneously less cabinet and parliamentary authority than any prime minister since the war.

    If she succeeds then it throws the entire constitutional set-up into question.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Nigelb said:

    "Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."

    Bollocks.

    Impeccable logic, as ever.
    Disgusting talking down of Britain.

    Britain is not a vassal state and that final sentence is hyperbole that totally fails to recognise what a vassal state actually means.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    The UK is the happiest country in the world with more than 37 million people (Canada) according to this report.

    https://news.sky.com/story/can-you-guess-which-countries-are-the-worlds-happiest-11670427

    Is it? I count it as number fifteen in that article.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    The UK is the happiest country in the world with more than 37 million people (Canada) according to this report.

    https://news.sky.com/story/can-you-guess-which-countries-are-the-worlds-happiest-11670427

    Is it? I count it as number fifteen in that article.
    Number 15 overall, but most of them have small populations.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    edited March 2019
    Unless people think that May can be forced to ask for a long extension (or to revoke), the Betfair market for Brexit date offers a striking opportunity. The implied probability for leaving by the end of June is only about 50%.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    The UK is the happiest country in the world with more than 37 million people (Canada) according to this report.

    https://news.sky.com/story/can-you-guess-which-countries-are-the-worlds-happiest-11670427

    Is it? I count it as number fifteen in that article.
    Number 15 overall, but most of them have small populations.
    Ah.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    DavidL said:

    Thank you Ms Cyclefree. Up to now I have only been a lurker, but your perceptive and realistic post has finally prompted me to comment.

    It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her acing to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.

    I don’t hold out much hope. I think we will end up exiting with no deal on March 29th because nobody can provide the statesmanship to broker a deal that can gain the support of enough people. Relying on the DUP is just wrong. The pork barrel negotiations with a party still linked to terrorism is unedifying.

    Welcome. May I suggest, however, that your first post pays very little attention to the Parliamentary arithmetic? You cannot ignore the DUP when you need them for a majority (although May is so incompetent she tried). You cannot form a majority without the Tory party or the DUP. There is no majority for the Tory party in the HoC since May lost it in 2017. It is far from clear who this person capable of rising above self-deception might be and even less clear how they get elected Tory leader/PM.

    Keep chipping in though. The more voices the better.

    You can ignore the DUP if you look to build alliances and consensus with other parts of the Commons.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,224
    edited March 2019
    Thank you, Cyclefree, for another excellent piece.

    Will the Government do the sensible thing....any sensible thing? The most sensible thing would be to follow the advice of that beacon of common sense, Kenneth Clarke, and suspend Brexit for five years during which time Leavers could put together a comprehensive and workable plan for exiting the EU. This plan would then be put to the voters in a referendum on the basis that this time they really would know what they are voting for, and it would actually be operable.

    The chances of this happening are of course nil. The chances of what you are suggestion are better than nil, but not by much.

    I have no idea what happens next. I agree with Alistair Meeks (of this Parish) that from where we are now, there are no good outcomes. I fear the worst.
  • We aren't getting a short extension. What is May asking for? "I want a short extension to get my deal through. Yes I know its been massively defeated twice. Yes I know you aren't going to change it. Yes I know my coalition partner doesn't support it. Yes I know that a number of my cabinet and a significant number of backbenchers have pledged to continue to defeat it. Yes I know the speaker has ruled that we cannot even vote on it again. But trust me, it'll be ok. What do you mean no?"

    They will offer us years of extension. Which the entire opposition bar the odd Labour Lexit loon will back. Which enough Tory MPs will back. It will pass. The question then for Theresa is what does she do? If she obeys the will of Parliament and lays out the SIs she will be removed as leader within days. If she refuses the will of parliament there will almost certainly be a confidence vote against the government, but with the ERG hugging her tight she'd win.

    OK so we'd crash out with no deal. But she'd remain Tory leader having delivered the will of the people. She'd see a dozen or so MPs defect. But she would carry on. Or, pass the multi-year extension, get removed, and see her party angrily tear itself apart in recriminations as to why Brexit didn't happen.

    She will resist until the end. No Deal.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Penddu said:

    If I was running EU, I would say - you can have a 2 year extension. You can cancel it at any time by either agreeing a deal or revoking - but we are not wasting any more time discussing things. And at end of 2 years that is it. You are out.

    If I was running UK I would hold an immediate GE with the main purpose to evict the disruptive headbangers on both sides. Then schedule a referendum for 18 months time - take the first 12 months to properly agree a question - ie revoke or Deal (to be defined) - and then campaign for 6 months. The referendum result to be legally binding and so implemented without further debate.

    Next...

    Isn't this just a transition period without a backstop? Or is the idea that they would give up the backstop for the possibility that the UK will rethink and remain?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,179

    I think there's been a mis-match from the beginning - initially obscured by our dire economic performance - but as that improved the differences became more obvious.

    rcs1000 posted a great link in the run up to the referendum by a Nobel Physicist who argued that over time the British constitution has developed a series of checks & balances and 'error control' where mistakes, when they inevitably happen get put right - via parliament or the courts (common law).

    Most of Europe - and the EU, (which is still very young, so hasn't had much opportunity to do this) - have much more limited experience with democracy and a different legal tradition. Its greatest strength - the Treaties to hold the whole thing together - are also its greatest weakness - limited to no flexibility.

    We've seen this in the negotiation, after a fashion - Britain 'lets bodge a deal' - EU 'These are the rules. Full stop.'

    It's not a case of 'right or wrong' (and goodness knows the British could have done a much better job drafting things rather than leaving it to the EU), but of different approaches and world views. Should we expect them to give up theirs? Of course not. Should we give up ours? Why? Leave were not alone in setting out a dishonest prospectus - Remain's "status quo" was never and will never be on offer.

    Staying in won't change that - and as Mr Verhofstadt has argued there needs to be a "two speed' Europe - Full membership (Euro, fiscal transfers etc etc) and Associated Members (which is as far as we'd ever get.) If that is their future then we might be better friends to stand aside and let them get on with it rather than acting as a turbulent and truculent sheet anchor on their ambitions.

    This has been the UK mistake from the very beginning. If Europe is going to have a political entity then the UK national interest dictates that we are fully in it. It is the failure to recognize this that has caused the repeated mistakes of British policy since 1957. The need for constitutional reform has been obvious for over a century (failure to give "Home Rule all Round" which drove Ireland out and may still drive Scotland out, and the failure to reform the House of Lords) The failure to reform has trapped us in a polity that is at least as disfunctional as the EU. So this is now not a European crisis, it is a humdinger of a UK constitutional crisis. Thanks Tories, hope you rot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    DavidL said:

    Thank you Ms Cyclefree. Up to now I have only been a lurker, but your perceptive and realistic post has finally prompted me to comment.

    It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her acing to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.

    I don’t hold out much hope. I think we will end up exiting with no deal on March 29th because nobody can provide the statesmanship to broker a deal that can gain the support of enough people. Relying on the DUP is just wrong. The pork barrel negotiations with a party still linked to terrorism is unedifying.

    Welcome. May I suggest, however, that your first post pays very little attention to the Parliamentary arithmetic? You cannot ignore the DUP when you need them for a majority (although May is so incompetent she tried). You cannot form a majority without the Tory party or the DUP. There is no majority for the Tory party in the HoC since May lost it in 2017. It is far from clear who this person capable of rising above self-deception might be and even less clear how they get elected Tory leader/PM.

    Keep chipping in though. The more voices the better.
    As recent votes have demonstrated it’s not exactly true to say there isn’t a majority in Parliament without the DUP, or the ERG for that matter. Though, as ydoethur points out, the chances of adult behaviour from any majority grouping is slim indeed.

    The only thing the DUP and ERG are now contributing to is keeping May in post.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Welcome aboard, Fairlieread and Brontosaurus - always good to have a wider spread of views here.

    Very good article, but I think the EU is up for one more heave - they are exasperated with May (who isn't?) but not with the British as a whole. Essentially she's going all-in on a tweaked MV3 and they'll give her the chance to try that. It might just work. Will she then resign in ordere to let someone else conduct the next two years of negotiations? Of course not - she'll politely and firmly proceed to vacillate from day to day for the next 2 years.

    Failing that, the obvious option is permanent customs union, which has a clear majority in Parliament plus complete acceptance by the EU plus the essence of a solution to the Nortern Ireland border. It'll get a majority on an indicative vote this week. Why hasn't it happened? (a) because it's Remain minus, so nobody is really keen and (b) Mrs May declines to consider it. Problem (b) will be resolved if MV3 fails - Bercow won't allow an MV4 and she will be forced out one way or another.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Thank you, Cyclefree, for another excellent piece.

    Will the Government do the sensible thing....any sensible thing? The most sensible thing would be to follow the advice of that beacon of common sense, Kenneth Clarke, and suspend Brexit for five years during which time Leavers could put together a comprehensive and workable plan for exiting the EU. This plan would then be put to the voters in a referendum on the basis that this time they really would know what they are voting for, and it would actually be operable.

    The chances of this happening are of course nil. The chances of what you are suggestion are better than nil, but not by much.

    I have no idea what happens next. I agree with Alistair Meeks (of this Parish) that from where we are now, there are no good outcomes. I fear the worst.

    You fear the worst because this is an ultra-panicky website that makes everyone else panic through reading and commenting on it. There are choices that carry different balances of positives and negatives, but we will be fine, regardless. We really will.

    I'm warming to the idea of a 2nd ratification referendum to endorse or reject this, just to bring it to a head/end, as I don't expect a GE to be decisive, there would be a majority for one, and our MPs couldn't vote to find a way out of a paper bag.

    It would need to be on near identical conditions to the last one with the same electorate to ensure it was perceived as fair.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Good piece, but the option discussed by Evan Davis of reaching across the house to make the political declaration beefed up to be more customs Uniony is also there. If May and Corbyn both whip for the MV, it passed.

    But they won't
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    "Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."

    Bollocks.

    Bollocks in what particular sense?

    Fact - at this moment in time the UK has no control over its future economic and security relationships with the EU, and thereby with the rest of the world. We are entirely dependent on the goodwill of 27 other nations, any of whom could deny our elected leader her principle objective.

    “Siri - show me what a vassal state looks like.”
This discussion has been closed.