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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A no deal Brexit on March 29th move from a 12% chance to 22% i

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    More unicorns have been bred in this Brexit debate than in all of recorded history to date. Time for bed.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.

    May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
    No I do not
    She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
    You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
    No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today You support her.
    Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
    You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
    I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
    I due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
    Major flaws? Such as...?
    Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
    Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?
    My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.
    And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?
    Because, A50 to WTO with a two year lead time to prepare would be available if things completely broke down. An exit clause not available in the backstop.
    But you said rejoin not move to WTO
    Figure it out!
    I have - its nonsensical

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    bunnco said:

    Charles said:

    Was he bald and thuggish looking?

    No. But with Raab breaking cover so obviously and ostentatiously, the rest of the Grand National field will be jostling for position. The first to twelve quality endorsements will have the 'mo'.

    And, almost as if it was planned, Govey endorses Truss this evening on SkyNews [Beth Rigby] with the classic line 'I agree with Liz' as the Pizza Plotters leave No 10. WIth today's 'The Sun Says' throwing its weight enthusiastically behind her too.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Nothing for The Saj?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.

    Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).

    Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
    It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.

    The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.
    Of course we'd have no say in product regulations. That's true of all forms of Brexit, including No Deal, and of course including Labour's mythical unicorn-Brexit. Product regulations are set by the big boys (and sometimes at international levels above the EU). Does it matter particularly? No manufacturer is going to make special non-EU compliant variants just for us, so it's academic.
    It may seems a technicality to you, but being at the mercy of an as yet unelected EU parliament and comisssion in which we have no say is not a risk worth taking IMO.
    Yet you're prepared to take it if Corbyn proposes it?
    There were better acceptable Brexit deals, but May killed those. Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option. If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal. Not only is it bad for the country. If I did she would abuse that support, claim a victory. So not in my name.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    edited March 2019

    Drutt said:

    The PM got all over the 10pm news tonight giving a speech attacking MPs for faffing about. The speech apparently resonated with the non-politico public and had us scratching our heads and MPs hanging theirs.

    In completely unrelated news, next election taking place in May 2019 is 3.5 and shortening.

    https://twitter.com/JoeWatts_/status/1108505193723899910
    Wizardry. But at least one of me and Joe Watts is always wrong, so stand down.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.

    May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
    No I do not
    She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
    You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
    No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today You support her.
    Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
    You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
    I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
    I due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
    Major flaws? Such as...?
    Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
    Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?
    My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.
    And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?
    Because, A50 to WTO with a two year lead time to prepare would be available if things completely broke down. An exit clause not available in the backstop.
    But you said rejoin not move to WTO
    Figure it out!
    I have - its nonsensical

    Nope.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."

    She's Trump.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."

    She's Trump.

    Without his restraint, finesse and modesty.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Charles said:

    bunnco said:

    Conservative Leadership Race started in earnest this afternoon.

    Just wandering through Collonades in House of Commons this afternoon talking to Political Editor of a National Broadsheet when he points out a 'wealthy businessman' steaming past as if he owns the place with a cluster of cronys.

    "That's Raab's money man" he says.

    The starting gun has been fired.

    #Classy.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Edit - of course, that's because EVERYONE is assuming TM will be gone by 30/6

    Was he bald and thuggish looking?
    Old, but this is the guy I am thinking of

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk/2012/mar/25/peter-cruddas-east-end-monaco
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    The revoke petition doing well, was hopeful it would get to 200k tonight, then 250k.

    As it is on 285kish now looking good for over 300k tonight.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092


    No. The EU have been saying it's non-negotiable since November. Of course the political declaration can be changed, now or in the future. If MPs want that, that's easy. They just need to ratify the current deal first.

    Let me try to say this another way. Theresa May spent most of 2018 running down the clock because she thought it would get the EU to remove the backstop. It didn't. During that time she could either have just agreed the deal, in which case there would then have been plenty of time to come back to the negotiating table if parliament rejected it, or reaching out to opponents of the deal to get involved in setting the terms of the negotiation so they'd "own" the outcome and not be able to take the "we could have done better" position that both Labour and the ERG had. In fact, even if she'd done neither of those things it'd still have been better than spending ages trying to get the backstop removed/limited, which totally took away her ability to claim that her deal is actually good (because if it is, why did she spend so long trying to change it?) and have any chance of actually getting it through parliament.

    But no, instead of doing those things she spent months running down the clock, playing chicken with the EU, a game she and her cheerleaders were sure she was going to win (remember the triumphalism over Chequers?). These are the same people who turned around and immediately criticised the ERG for being unrealistic when she eventually gave up on limiting the backstop in November (before un-giving up a couple more times, just for fun).

    Since November, May has again done everything she can to delay. She has in fact tried to renegotiate (so don't pretend she's taken a logical position based on her deal being the only one available), but instead of trying to negotiate something different (again, maybe bringing along a few opponents of her deal so they have to own the failure to get changes), she's just run down the clock still trying to renegotiate the backstop. I suppose you could argue that by sticking to her guns on her deal she hasn't been any worse than MPs, but she certainly hasn't been any better- why does she get a free pass on not changing her mind, but they don't?

    It was also incredibly last minute that MPs got an indicative vote on No Deal, they've still not really had a convincing vote on a 2nd referendum (rightly or wrongly, many of them didn't treat the amendment last week as being one... May could easily have brought one), and her request for a time extension was also extremely last minute. All of that's because May didn't want to actually start whittling feasible options down because she was scared her deal would be one of the first to go. So instead, she ran down the clock.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    A longer extension with the defined purpose of holding a referendum would be a different proposition that the EU would be likely to agree to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."

    She's Trump.

    Liberal democracy can be overrated, if May was a dictator a la Franco we would be out with the Deal and the Union would not be a concern as it would be preserved by force
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    bunnco said:

    Charles said:

    Was he bald and thuggish looking?

    No. But with Raab breaking cover so obviously and ostentatiously, the rest of the Grand National field will be jostling for position. The first to twelve quality endorsements will have the 'mo'.

    And, almost as if it was planned, Govey endorses Truss this evening on SkyNews [Beth Rigby] with the classic line 'I agree with Liz' as the Pizza Plotters leave No 10. WIth today's 'The Sun Says' throwing its weight enthusiastically behind her too.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Fair enough. I know the #standupforbrexit lot were very keen on Raab and working Peter Cruddas very hard to support him

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk/2012/mar/25/peter-cruddas-east-end-monaco
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The revoke petition doing well, was hopeful it would get to 200k tonight, then 250k.

    As it is on 285kish now looking good for over 300k tonight.

    When will it get to 17.4 million?
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    MaxPB said:

    Nothing for The Saj?

    Saj has blown it. Hancock/Hunt are just too boring. The hardcore brexiteers are coalescing around Raab but he's just a weird loner who has spent even less time in the bar making friends than Theresa May ever did and has little electoral appeal - even in his own constituency association. Seriously.

    The challenge for the Conservatives is to skip a generation and be relevant to a new cohort of younger voters with an aspirational message and a proposition that is rooted in Conservative values of 'free enterprise, strong policing and defence' rather than personality [although noting personality is important].

    That's why I think that today's Sun endorsement of Truss is significant: They recognise that she is the only one making the case for lower taxes and 'an end to the nanny state claptrap and the virtue signalling and hectoring over what we eat or throw away'.

    And, separately, again in the Sun, Mercer is calling for a change in the Party leadership rules but he hasn't had the ministerial exposure to make him a proper front-rank contender


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot



  • bunnco said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nothing for The Saj?

    Saj has blown it. Hancock/Hunt are just too boring. The hardcore brexiteers are coalescing around Raab but he's just a weird loner who has spent even less time in the bar making friends than Theresa May ever did and has little electoral appeal - even in his own constituency association. Seriously.

    The challenge for the Conservatives is to skip a generation and be relevant to a new cohort of younger voters with an aspirational message and a proposition that is rooted in Conservative values of 'free enterprise, strong policing and defence' rather than personality [although noting personality is important].

    That's why I think that today's Sun endorsement of Truss is significant: They recognise that she is the only one making the case for lower taxes and 'an end to the nanny state claptrap and the virtue signalling and hectoring over what we eat or throw away'.

    And, separately, again in the Sun, Mercer is calling for a change in the Party leadership rules but he hasn't had the ministerial exposure to make him a proper front-rank contender


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Leaders have to be comfortable in their own skin and do well on TV. You need to view all leadership candidates through that prism.
  • Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    A longer extension with the defined purpose of holding a referendum would be a different proposition that the EU would be likely to agree to.
    But they don't know how a referendum would go. I really think that Brexit fatigue will set in this coming week for everyone - UK and EU. It will be no deal.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234
    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    When given a difficult choice, people often refuse to choose, instead focussing on displacement activity (like discussing non-existent options) or take refuge in blame. It is the task of wise leadership to make people focus on the task at hand and choose the best option. We are lucky we live in a timeline where we have a Prime Minister who is capab...

    ...what? We're not in that timeline? OK, which one are we in (focusses on map). Jeez-Louise, that one? Quick, let's get out of here... :(
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I must have missed this - Trump is now feuding with a dead man. Depressingly, the piece concludes him doing so is popular among his supporters.

    US President Donald Trump has attacked the late Senator John McCain, complaining that he "didn't get a thank you" for his state funeral.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47642335
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    bunnco said:

    Charles said:

    Was he bald and thuggish looking?

    No. But with Raab breaking cover so obviously and ostentatiously, the rest of the Grand National field will be jostling for position. The first to twelve quality endorsements will have the 'mo'.

    And, almost as if it was planned, Govey endorses Truss this evening on SkyNews [Beth Rigby] with the classic line 'I agree with Liz' as the Pizza Plotters leave No 10. WIth today's 'The Sun Says' throwing its weight enthusiastically behind her too.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    A deal will be made and I could understand them going for Truss, but my Betfair position would strongly prefer Mordaunt.

  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Charles said:

    Fair enough. I know the #standupforbrexit lot were very keen on Raab and working Peter Cruddas very hard to support him

    Last November the Brexiteers recognised that the Party rules which mean that only the last two get to be put to the members indicated that they needed to agree amongst themselves and anoint an individual rather than split the vote and dissipate the small number of hardcore votes over several Brexit candidates and get nowhere.

    They reasoned that, in the last two, there would be a 'brexit' and a 'remain' candidate.

    Johnson, Davis recognised that they wouldn't get to the last two from a MP vote so chose Raab as someone they could mould. Davis referred to him as 'My Boy'. They didn't stop to ask whether he was electable.

    Now, does Johnson regret that? Will he change his mind at the last minute again like he did last time? Who knows? But they have 'unleashed' Raab, who nobody says is a leader and is doomed to fail. And he's now got money behind him.

    Not that it will do him any good. But it has got all the others scrambling for endorsements.


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    viewcode said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    When given a difficult choice, people often refuse to choose, instead focussing on displacement activity (like discussing non-existent options) or take refuge in blame. It is the task of wise leadership to make people focus on the task at hand and choose the best option. We are lucky we live in a timeline where we have a Prime Minister who is capab...

    ...what? We're not in that timeline? OK, which one are we in (focusses on map). Jeez-Louise, that one? Quick, let's get out of here... :(
    Time to advocate this approach?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_ZfZjIkA2c
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    bunnco said:

    Charles said:

    Was he bald and thuggish looking?

    No. But with Raab breaking cover so obviously and ostentatiously, the rest of the Grand National field will be jostling for position. The first to twelve quality endorsements will have the 'mo'.

    And, almost as if it was planned, Govey endorses Truss this evening on SkyNews [Beth Rigby] with the classic line 'I agree with Liz' as the Pizza Plotters leave No 10. WIth today's 'The Sun Says' throwing its weight enthusiastically behind her too.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    A deal will be made and I could understand them going for Truss, but my Betfair position would strongly prefer Mordaunt.

    Is there a market for lady (?) vs man?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    dixiedean said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    dixiedean said:

    Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:

    Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.

    Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.

    Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.

    Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.

    Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.

    Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
    If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.

    The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.

    I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
    Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?
    Would she command the confidence of the entire tory party and the DUP ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    A longer extension with the defined purpose of holding a referendum would be a different proposition that the EU would be likely to agree to.
    But they don't know how a referendum would go. I really think that Brexit fatigue will set in this coming week for everyone - UK and EU. It will be no deal.
    Assuming it's Deal vs Remain they're both better than the alternative, so not knowing which of those it would be shouldn't be a problem.

    A bigger issue is not knowing whether parliament will manage to pass the legislation for it.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    300 000.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited March 2019
    Well, for what it is worth, the revoke petition has made 300,000 before midnight.

    Edit: I was third, and so now is the revoke petition, behind only the ISIS and no deal positions.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    The revoke petition doing well, was hopeful it would get to 200k tonight, then 250k.

    As it is on 285kish now looking good for over 300k tonight.

    It's an entirely pointless exercise in virtue signalling with 7 days to go
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    kle4 said:

    I must have missed this - Trump is now feuding with a dead man. Depressingly, the piece concludes him doing so is popular among his supporters.

    US President Donald Trump has attacked the late Senator John McCain, complaining that he "didn't get a thank you" for his state funeral.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47642335

    I think there's a reason why John McCain did not thank him.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
    mmm?
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169


    Leaders have to be comfortable in their own skin and do well on TV. You need to view all leadership candidates through that prism.

    That's right. But that's not enough in itself. It's about the Person & Personality but it has to be about the Politics/Political Vision and the Proposition.

    And in a crowded field, a successful candidate needs a distinctive proposition, a USP - Unique Selling Proposition. Which the print media can understand and get behind.

    My comments below re 'The Sun Says' refer. A proposition that isn't 'virtue signalling and hectoring us over what we eat or throw away' can give the comfort in their own skin and do well on TV.

    The punters want substance as well as media performability.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    dixiedean said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    dixiedean said:

    Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:

    Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.

    Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.

    Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.

    Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.

    Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.

    Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
    If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.

    The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.

    I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
    Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?
    Would she command the confidence of the entire tory party and the DUP ?
    or her constituency?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    bunnco said:


    Leaders have to be comfortable in their own skin and do well on TV. You need to view all leadership candidates through that prism.

    That's right. But that's not enough in itself. It's about the Person & Personality but it has to be about the Politics/Political Vision and the Proposition.

    And in a crowded field, a successful candidate needs a distinctive proposition, a USP - Unique Selling Proposition. Which the print media can understand and get behind.

    My comments below re 'The Sun Says' refer. A proposition that isn't 'virtue signalling and hectoring us over what we eat or throw away' can give the comfort in their own skin and do well on TV.

    The punters want substance as well as media performability.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
    Johnny Mercer.....
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    The revoke petition doing well, was hopeful it would get to 200k tonight, then 250k.

    As it is on 285kish now looking good for over 300k tonight.

    It's an entirely pointless exercise in virtue signalling with 7 days to go
    or finger crossing
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    For the nerds among us, the Com Res numbers without TIG are Con 40, Lab 39, Lib Dem 10. Including TIG boosts support for all minor parties, as well as TIG.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    The revoke petition doing well, was hopeful it would get to 200k tonight, then 250k.

    As it is on 285kish now looking good for over 300k tonight.

    It's an entirely pointless exercise in virtue signalling with 7 days to go
    Not so pointless - it gives us a list of wankers......
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    bunnco said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nothing for The Saj?

    Saj has blown it. Hancock/Hunt are just too boring. The hardcore brexiteers are coalescing around Raab but he's just a weird loner who has spent even less time in the bar making friends than Theresa May ever did and has little electoral appeal - even in his own constituency association. Seriously.

    The challenge for the Conservatives is to skip a generation and be relevant to a new cohort of younger voters with an aspirational message and a proposition that is rooted in Conservative values of 'free enterprise, strong policing and defence' rather than personality [although noting personality is important].

    That's why I think that today's Sun endorsement of Truss is significant: They recognise that she is the only one making the case for lower taxes and 'an end to the nanny state claptrap and the virtue signalling and hectoring over what we eat or throw away'.

    And, separately, again in the Sun, Mercer is calling for a change in the Party leadership rules but he hasn't had the ministerial exposure to make him a proper front-rank contender


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot



    Norfolk Taliban backing one of their own 🤣
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    A longer extension with the defined purpose of holding a referendum would be a different proposition that the EU would be likely to agree to.
    But they don't know how a referendum would go. I really think that Brexit fatigue will set in this coming week for everyone - UK and EU. It will be no deal.
    No Deal does not end Brexit fatigue, it extends it with bells on while the economy collapses and the Union potentially breaks up as well
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    bunnco said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nothing for The Saj?

    Saj has blown it. Hancock/Hunt are just too boring. The hardcore brexiteers are coalescing around Raab but he's just a weird loner who has spent even less time in the bar making friends than Theresa May ever did and has little electoral appeal - even in his own constituency association. Seriously.

    The challenge for the Conservatives is to skip a generation and be relevant to a new cohort of younger voters with an aspirational message and a proposition that is rooted in Conservative values of 'free enterprise, strong policing and defence' rather than personality [although noting personality is important].

    That's why I think that today's Sun endorsement of Truss is significant: They recognise that she is the only one making the case for lower taxes and 'an end to the nanny state claptrap and the virtue signalling and hectoring over what we eat or throw away'.

    And, separately, again in the Sun, Mercer is calling for a change in the Party leadership rules but he hasn't had the ministerial exposure to make him a proper front-rank contender


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot



    Truss is a libertarian, Tories don't want a libertarian at the moment, if anything they would prefer a Fascist
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234
    On a more serious note. I was relieved when Tusk announced an extension with preconditions. My personal worst-case scenario was a delay-and-no-deal, which I was not covered for. Currently the two most likely outcomes are a no-deal Brexit on March 29th (in which case I win my bet) or delay-and-deal (in which case I lose but GBP rises compensate for it). So in theory I am covered coming and going. So I should be pleased right?

    Well, no. The reaction of MPs to May's speech tonight has revolted me further. Their hyperbole and narcisissm ("I am insulted! I shall vote against!) have confirmed me further in my beliefs that they are not up to the task. Regardless of the outcome, they should be ashamed of themselves.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    A longer extension with the defined purpose of holding a referendum would be a different proposition that the EU would be likely to agree to.
    But they don't know how a referendum would go. I really think that Brexit fatigue will set in this coming week for everyone - UK and EU. It will be no deal.
    No Deal does not end Brexit fatigue, it extends it with bells on while the economy collapses and the Union potentially breaks up as well
    Prayer - it's your last resort
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
    mmm?
    He won't be blackmailed. I get the feeling Labour MPs feel similarly.

    If the Tories want no deal they can get it, up to them. Labour MPs won't be throwing themselves up as sacrifices to save them.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    bunnco said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nothing for The Saj?

    Saj has blown it. Hancock/Hunt are just too boring. The hardcore brexiteers are coalescing around Raab but he's just a weird loner who has spent even less time in the bar making friends than Theresa May ever did and has little electoral appeal - even in his own constituency association. Seriously.

    The challenge for the Conservatives is to skip a generation and be relevant to a new cohort of younger voters with an aspirational message and a proposition that is rooted in Conservative values of 'free enterprise, strong policing and defence' rather than personality [although noting personality is important].

    That's why I think that today's Sun endorsement of Truss is significant: They recognise that she is the only one making the case for lower taxes and 'an end to the nanny state claptrap and the virtue signalling and hectoring over what we eat or throw away'.

    And, separately, again in the Sun, Mercer is calling for a change in the Party leadership rules but he hasn't had the ministerial exposure to make him a proper front-rank contender


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot



    Truss is a libertarian, Tories don't want a libertarian at the moment, if anything they would prefer a Fascist
    Like I said - pray, although I think you're already a lost soul.
  • They are all students as well - Oxford, Cambridge, Canterbury . . .
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Not so pointless - it gives us a list of wankers......


    Government agents will be around to demand their licence on the 1st/April.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    viewcode said:

    On a more serious note. I was relieved when Tusk announced an extension with preconditions. My personal worst-case scenario was a delay-and-no-deal, which I was not covered for. Currently the two most likely outcomes are a no-deal Brexit on March 29th (in which case I win my bet) or delay-and-deal (in which case I lose but GBP rises compensate for it). So in theory I am covered coming and going. So I should be pleased right?

    Well, no. The reaction of MPs to May's speech tonight has revolted me further. Their hyperbole and narcisissm ("I am insulted! I shall vote against!) have confirmed me further in my beliefs that they are not up to the task. Regardless of the outcome, they should be ashamed of themselves.

    It's nice that you can be so pecuniary about it
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Sean_F said:

    For the nerds among us, the Com Res numbers without TIG are Con 40, Lab 39, Lib Dem 10. Including TIG boosts support for all minor parties, as well as TIG.

    Polls starting to show TIG as more damaging for Con than Lab. If I remember rightly Labour have a lead in ComRes when TIG are taken into account.

    Although I'm not sure if this is prompting for TIG still rather than people just choosing them?

    Also nice to see the petition beat 300k before midnight.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
    mmm?
    He won't be blackmailed. I get the feeling Labour MPs feel similarly.

    If the Tories want no deal they can get it, up to them. Labour MPs won't be throwing themselves up as sacrifices to save them.
    He? You mustn't speak of the chosen one in such a manner - he'll have your guts for garters!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited March 2019

    They are all students as well - Oxford, Cambridge, Canterbury . . .
    really? 17.4 m?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:

    For the nerds among us, the Com Res numbers without TIG are Con 40, Lab 39, Lib Dem 10. Including TIG boosts support for all minor parties, as well as TIG.

    Polls starting to show TIG as more damaging for Con than Lab. If I remember rightly Labour have a lead in ComRes when TIG are taken into account.

    Although I'm not sure if this is prompting for TIG still rather than people just choosing them?

    Also nice to see the petition beat 300k before midnight.
    It's more to do with UKIP going from 3% to 6% if you prompt for TIG, at Conservative expense.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Sean_F said:

    For the nerds among us, the Com Res numbers without TIG are Con 40, Lab 39, Lib Dem 10. Including TIG boosts support for all minor parties, as well as TIG.

    Polls starting to show TIG as more damaging for Con than Lab. If I remember rightly Labour have a lead in ComRes when TIG are taken into account.

    Although I'm not sure if this is prompting for TIG still rather than people just choosing them?

    Also nice to see the petition beat 300k before midnight.
    I remember polls. I'm sure TM does too.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    bunnco said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nothing for The Saj?

    Saj has blown it. Hancock/Hunt are just too boring. The hardcore brexiteers are coalescing around Raab but he's just a weird loner who has spent even less time in the bar making friends than Theresa May ever did and has little electoral appeal - even in his own constituency association. Seriously.

    The challenge for the Conservatives is to skip a generation and be relevant to a new cohort of younger voters with an aspirational message and a proposition that is rooted in Conservative values of 'free enterprise, strong policing and defence' rather than personality [although noting personality is important].

    That's why I think that today's Sun endorsement of Truss is significant: They recognise that she is the only one making the case for lower taxes and 'an end to the nanny state claptrap and the virtue signalling and hectoring over what we eat or throw away'.

    And, separately, again in the Sun, Mercer is calling for a change in the Party leadership rules but he hasn't had the ministerial exposure to make him a proper front-rank contender


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot



    Truss is a libertarian, Tories don't want a libertarian at the moment, if anything they would prefer a Fascist
    I trust Truss with my support
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234

    viewcode said:

    On a more serious note. I was relieved when Tusk announced an extension with preconditions. My personal worst-case scenario was a delay-and-no-deal, which I was not covered for. Currently the two most likely outcomes are a no-deal Brexit on March 29th (in which case I win my bet) or delay-and-deal (in which case I lose but GBP rises compensate for it). So in theory I am covered coming and going. So I should be pleased right?

    Well, no. The reaction of MPs to May's speech tonight has revolted me further. Their hyperbole and narcisissm ("I am insulted! I shall vote against!) have confirmed me further in my beliefs that they are not up to the task. Regardless of the outcome, they should be ashamed of themselves.

    It's nice that you can be so pecuniary about it
    What was the alternative?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the nerds among us, the Com Res numbers without TIG are Con 40, Lab 39, Lib Dem 10. Including TIG boosts support for all minor parties, as well as TIG.

    Polls starting to show TIG as more damaging for Con than Lab. If I remember rightly Labour have a lead in ComRes when TIG are taken into account.

    Although I'm not sure if this is prompting for TIG still rather than people just choosing them?

    Also nice to see the petition beat 300k before midnight.
    It's more to do with UKIP going from 3% to 6% if you prompt for TIG, at Conservative expense.
    I'd be more interested if TIG were an option the way other parties were rather then being specifically prompted for.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    On a more serious note. I was relieved when Tusk announced an extension with preconditions. My personal worst-case scenario was a delay-and-no-deal, which I was not covered for. Currently the two most likely outcomes are a no-deal Brexit on March 29th (in which case I win my bet) or delay-and-deal (in which case I lose but GBP rises compensate for it). So in theory I am covered coming and going. So I should be pleased right?

    Well, no. The reaction of MPs to May's speech tonight has revolted me further. Their hyperbole and narcisissm ("I am insulted! I shall vote against!) have confirmed me further in my beliefs that they are not up to the task. Regardless of the outcome, they should be ashamed of themselves.

    It's nice that you can be so pecuniary about it
    What was the alternative?
    You tell me. I'd hate to limit your imagination's options.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Sean_F said:

    For the nerds among us, the Com Res numbers without TIG are Con 40, Lab 39, Lib Dem 10. Including TIG boosts support for all minor parties, as well as TIG.

    Polls starting to show TIG as more damaging for Con than Lab. If I remember rightly Labour have a lead in ComRes when TIG are taken into account.

    Although I'm not sure if this is prompting for TIG still rather than people just choosing them?

    Also nice to see the petition beat 300k before midnight.
    I remember polls. I'm sure TM does too.
    I'm sure she has nightmares that feature the polls moving in 2017!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    I'm going to join everyone else in bed - not literally!
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    HYUFD said:

    bunnco said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nothing for The Saj?

    Saj has blown it. Hancock/Hunt are just too boring. The hardcore brexiteers are coalescing around Raab but he's just a weird loner who has spent even less time in the bar making friends than Theresa May ever did and has little electoral appeal - even in his own constituency association. Seriously.

    The challenge for the Conservatives is to skip a generation and be relevant to a new cohort of younger voters with an aspirational message and a proposition that is rooted in Conservative values of 'free enterprise, strong policing and defence' rather than personality [although noting personality is important].

    That's why I think that today's Sun endorsement of Truss is significant: They recognise that she is the only one making the case for lower taxes and 'an end to the nanny state claptrap and the virtue signalling and hectoring over what we eat or throw away'.

    And, separately, again in the Sun, Mercer is calling for a change in the Party leadership rules but he hasn't had the ministerial exposure to make him a proper front-rank contender


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot



    Truss is a libertarian, Tories don't want a libertarian at the moment, if anything they would prefer a Fascist
    I trust Truss with my support
    😂
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2019

    HYUFD said:

    bunnco said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nothing for The Saj?

    Saj has blown it. Hancock/Hunt are just too boring. The hardcore brexiteers are coalescing around Raab but he's just a weird loner who has spent even less time in the bar making friends than Theresa May ever did and has little electoral appeal - even in his own constituency association. Seriously.

    The challenge for the Conservatives is to skip a generation and be relevant to a new cohort of younger voters with an aspirational message and a proposition that is rooted in Conservative values of 'free enterprise, strong policing and defence' rather than personality [although noting personality is important].

    That's why I think that today's Sun endorsement of Truss is significant: They recognise that she is the only one making the case for lower taxes and 'an end to the nanny state claptrap and the virtue signalling and hectoring over what we eat or throw away'.

    And, separately, again in the Sun, Mercer is calling for a change in the Party leadership rules but he hasn't had the ministerial exposure to make him a proper front-rank contender


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot



    Truss is a libertarian, Tories don't want a libertarian at the moment, if anything they would prefer a Fascist
    I trust Truss with my support
    People do not want a Libertarian, she has the wrong priorities for the times, if anything voters want to end austerity but crack down on crime and cut immigration
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    On a more serious note. I was relieved when Tusk announced an extension with preconditions. My personal worst-case scenario was a delay-and-no-deal, which I was not covered for. Currently the two most likely outcomes are a no-deal Brexit on March 29th (in which case I win my bet) or delay-and-deal (in which case I lose but GBP rises compensate for it). So in theory I am covered coming and going. So I should be pleased right?

    Well, no. The reaction of MPs to May's speech tonight has revolted me further. Their hyperbole and narcisissm ("I am insulted! I shall vote against!) have confirmed me further in my beliefs that they are not up to the task. Regardless of the outcome, they should be ashamed of themselves.

    It's nice that you can be so pecuniary about it
    What was the alternative?
    You tell me. I'd hate to limit your imagination's options.
    OK, a more serious answer is required. I realized in the first week after the referendum that Brexit would most likely happen and that I should arrange matters to cope with the transition. People on this board act as if politics is a football match: one supports a side as "my" side and walks off after the game untouched by the outcome. I profoundly disagree with this stance, as I believe that I am a spectator not a participant, and I can be badly hurt by the wrong outcome. So this was an adult responsibility to mitigate risk, which I did. The alternative would be to ignore it and pretend it isn't happening. I'm usually not very good at decisions like this but I seem to have acted correctly, luckily.

    If it helps, this isn't about making a profit but minimizing a loss: not the same thing. I would be perfectly happy if the deal was passed next week, despite the lost bet
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
    mmm?
    He won't be blackmailed. I get the feeling Labour MPs feel similarly.

    If the Tories want no deal they can get it, up to them. Labour MPs won't be throwing themselves up as sacrifices to save them.
    The temperature will cool over weekend and then it will pass. 50 to 100 Labour MPs will help pass May’s WA. If they thought there could be another way out, further options, they wouldn’t do it. But it will be crystal clear by the vote there are no other options, no TARDIS materialising beside the speakers chair, this is the week of that forced vote. The EU will ensure the circus ends this week, one way or other.

    commons speech’s a variation on this theme.

    “I couldn’t be unhappier having nothing but a choice between no deal and May’s imperfect deal. But at least for the WA to pass and move onto the next phase I can continue to shape a better brexit a better deal, if I join the ERG in lobby’s to ensure no deal exit this week I will have lost any chance to improve the next stage of negotiation. It is with heavy reluctance I will vote to allow the WA to proceed.”

    They won’t mention how their opponents leafleting goes big on voting for no deal by killing May’s reasonable WA, but that has to be scaring anyone serious of standing in 2022.

    Just a look of today’s Sun and you can know the games up for Parliament. History books will record May’s historic win this week and that Sun front page for illustration.

    The facts behind that Sun front page a PM pulling rug from beneath parliaments feet only because of support from the EU, or that when she turned on MPs for being against the people, parliament was incredulous, is not how this will be remembered. Write ups favour the winners, not the actual game.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited March 2019
    I can't remember Labour doing that, I do remember them abstaining when the peoples vote campaigners themselves said it wasn't the right time. They were right as well, ever since people have used that vote as ammunition against a second referendum.

    The real question is if the TIGs are as committed to a second referendum as they claim why they damaged its prospects...

    Also if changing the political declaration is such a small thing then May would have done it to either win over the Labour votes or prove that they were lying in their claims.

    Either way May refusing to budge on it proves it isn't the small thing supporters of the deal claim it is.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Deadline for May 2nd GE is not next Wed.

    It's 25 working days from dissolution - but remember there are two Bank Hols in April so deadline is either Mon or Tue.

    (Not sure if GE can be on 25th day or there have to be 25 clear days - ie GE on Day 26.

    But at very latest cut-off point is Tue midnight - and it may well be Mon midnight.

    Conclusion - May 2nd GE is effectively impossible given Meaningful Vote will be Mon at absolute earliest. May would have to subsequently propose GE, lay down motion, hold debate, win vote and also go through dissolution process by Tues midnight (if it is Tues) - not realistic.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    HYUFD said:
    People who think No Deal is going to stop them having to think about Brexit aren't going to have a good summer.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    dots said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
    mmm?
    He won't be blackmailed. I get the feeling Labour MPs feel similarly.

    If the Tories want no deal they can get it, up to them. Labour MPs won't be throwing themselves up as sacrifices to save them.
    The temperature will cool over weekend and then it will pass. 50 to 100 Labour MPs will help pass May’s WA. If they thought there could be another way out, further options, they wouldn’t do it. But it will be crystal clear by the vote there are no other options, no TARDIS materialising beside the speakers chair, this is the week of that forced vote. The EU will ensure the circus ends this week, one way or other.

    With respect weren't you expecting MPs to come around last MV as well?

    Listening to MPs like Liz Kendall and Lisa Nandy it really doesn't sound like May is winning Labour votes, there is no faction among the members to pressure them either. It wouldn't surprise me if a couple decided to, she won over 1 extra Labour MP last time, I think she could do a little bit better than that but 50-100 just seems incredibly unlikely.

    The Labour MPs will not reward May with their votes.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    dots said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
    mmm?
    He won't be blackmailed. I get the feeling Labour MPs feel similarly.

    If the Tories want no deal they can get it, up to them. Labour MPs won't be throwing themselves up as sacrifices to save them.
    The temperature will cool over weekend and then it will pass. 50 to 100 Labour MPs will help pass May’s WA. If they thought there could be another way out, further options, they wouldn’t do it. But it will be crystal clear by the vote there are no other options, no TARDIS materialising beside the speakers chair, this is the week of that forced vote. The EU will ensure the circus ends this week, one way or other.

    With respect weren't you expecting MPs to come around last MV as well?

    Listening to MPs like Liz Kendall and Lisa Nandy it really doesn't sound like May is winning Labour votes, there is no faction among the members to pressure them either. It wouldn't surprise me if a couple decided to, she won over 1 extra Labour MP last time, I think she could do a little bit better than that but 50-100 just seems incredibly unlikely.

    The Labour MPs will not reward May with their votes.

    There is probably a majority for SM and Customs Union BINO but it needs an amendment on the political declaration to pass next week
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
    mmm?
    He won't be blackmailed. I get the feeling Labour MPs feel similarly.

    If the Tories want no deal they can get it, up to them. Labour MPs won't be throwing themselves up as sacrifices to save them.
    The temperature will cool over weekend and then it will pass. 50 to 100 Labour MPs will help pass May’s WA. If they thought there could be another way out, further options, they wouldn’t do it. But it will be crystal clear by the vote there are no other options, no TARDIS materialising beside the speakers chair, this is the week of that forced vote. The EU will ensure the circus ends this week, one way or other.

    With respect weren't you expecting MPs to come around last MV as well?

    Listening to MPs like Liz Kendall and Lisa Nandy it really doesn't sound like May is winning Labour votes, there is no faction among the members to pressure them either. It wouldn't surprise me if a couple decided to, she won over 1 extra Labour MP last time, I think she could do a little bit better than that but 50-100 just seems incredibly unlikely.

    The Labour MPs will not reward May with their votes.

    There is probably a majority for SM and Customs Union BINO but it needs an amendment on the political declaration to pass next week
    If Labour and the Conservatives whipped for it, I'm questioning both parts of that though.

    Second referendum lot and soft Brexit lot could easily take each other out with scorched earth tactics.

    It is partially why I am pretty much a second referendum supporter now, just cleaner and easier. I could happily live with a soft Brexit though.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    OTOH if you consider that the ERG's goal is Disaster Capitalism and Labour's goal is Disaster Socialism then it's all totally logical.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    dots said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
    mmm?
    He won't be blackmailed. I get the feeling Labour MPs feel similarly.

    If the Tories want no deal they can get it, up to them. Labour MPs won't be throwing themselves up as sacrifices to save them.
    The temperature will cool over weekend and then it will pass. 50 to 100 Labour MPs will help pass May’s WA. If they thought there could be another way out, further options, they wouldn’t do it. But it will be crystal clear by the vote there are no other options, no TARDIS materialising beside the speakers chair, this is the week of that forced vote. The EU will ensure the circus ends this week, one way or other.

    commons speech’s a variation on this theme.

    “I couldn’t be unhappier having nothing but a choice between no deal and May’s imperfect deal. But at least for the WA to pass and move onto the next phase I can continue to shape a better brexit a better deal, if I join the ERG in lobby’s to ensure no deal exit this week I will have lost any chance to improve the next stage of negotiation. It is with heavy reluctance I will vote to allow the WA to proceed.”

    They won’t mention how their opponents leafleting goes big on voting for no deal by killing May’s reasonable WA, but that has to be scaring anyone serious of standing in 2022.

    Just a look of today’s Sun and you can know the games up for Parliament. History books will record May’s historic win this week and that Sun front page for illustration.

    The facts behind that Sun front page a PM pulling rug from beneath parliaments feet only because of support from the EU, or that when she turned on MPs for being against the people, parliament was incredulous, is not how this will be remembered. Write ups favour the winners, not the actual game.
    This is pretty much everything you said just before the last time the HoC told May to stick her deal up her crack.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2019

    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    Now I support reluctantly a second vote as the least worst option.

    If I were an MP I could not vote for her deal.


    There isn't time for a 2nd vote though.

    Do you prefer no-deal exit to the deal? That's the choice on offer.

    That’s a false choice.
    mmm?
    He won't be blackmailed. I get the feeling Labour MPs feel similarly.

    If the Tories want no deal they can get it, up to them. Labour MPs won't be throwing themselves up as sacrifices to save them.
    The temperature will cool over weekend and then it will pass. 50 to 100 Labour MPs will help pass May’s WA. If they thought there could be another way out, further options, they wouldn’t do it. But it will be crystal clear by the vote there are no other options, no TARDIS materialising beside the speakers chair, this is the week of that forced vote. The EU will ensure the circus ends this week, one way or other.

    With respect weren't you expecting MPs to come around last MV as well?

    Listening to MPs like Liz Kendall and Lisa Nandy it really doesn't sound like May is winning Labour votes, there is no faction among the members to pressure them either. It wouldn't surprise me if a couple decided to, she won over 1 extra Labour MP last time, I think she could do a little bit better than that but 50-100 just seems incredibly unlikely.

    The Labour MPs will not reward May with their votes.

    There is probably a majority for SM and Customs Union BINO but it needs an amendment on the political declaration to pass next week
    If Labour and the Conservatives whipped for it, I'm questioning both parts of that though.

    Second referendum lot and soft Brexit lot could easily take each other out with scorched earth tactics.

    It is partially why I am pretty much a second referendum supporter now, just cleaner and easier. I could happily live with a soft Brexit though.
    There are more votes in the Commons for soft Brexit than EUref2 but soft Brexit will only pass if second referendum supporters swing in behind it as a compromise
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:





    mmm?
    He won't be blackmailed. I get the feeling Labour MPs feel similarly.

    If the Tories want no deal they can get it, up to them. Labour MPs won't be throwing themselves up as sacrifices to save them.
    The temperature will cool over weekend and then it will pass. 50 to 100 Labour MPs will help pass May’s WA. If they thought there could be another way out, further options, they wouldn’t do it. But it will be crystal clear by the vote there are no other options, no TARDIS materialising beside the speakers chair, this is the week of that forced vote. The EU will ensure the circus ends this week, one way or other.

    With respect weren't you expecting MPs to come around last MV as well?

    Listening to MPs like Liz Kendall and Lisa Nandy it really doesn't sound like May is winning Labour votes, there is no faction among the members to pressure them either. It wouldn't surprise me if a couple decided to, she won over 1 extra Labour MP last time, I think she could do a little bit better than that but 50-100 just seems incredibly unlikely.

    The Labour MPs will not reward May with their votes.

    There is probably a majority for SM and Customs Union BINO but it needs an amendment on the political declaration to pass next week
    If Labour and the Conservatives whipped for it, I'm questioning both parts of that though.

    Second referendum lot and soft Brexit lot could easily take each other out with scorched earth tactics.

    It is partially why I am pretty much a second referendum supporter now, just cleaner and easier. I could happily live with a soft Brexit though.
    There are more votes in the Commons for soft Brexit than EUref2 but soft Brexit will only pass if second referendum supporters swing in behind it as a compromise
    The whole fiasco has been massively polarising. Getting people to compromise on Brexit now will not be easy...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    This month it is 40 years since the Callaghan government fell. It was a different time, with no parallels to today’s politics at all. In Margaret Thatcher the opposition had someone who was never expected to win the leadership of her party. She had stood only because someone from her wing of the party needed to and her candidacy was given next to no chance by almost every commentator or establishment figure.

    After she won the leadership of the party, those in the know predicted she would not last long and she struggled to establish control of the party. Her parliamentary performances were often uninspiring.

    She had almost no support in the shadow cabinet or among the party establishment; they all saw themselves as serious politicians and privately, and sometimes not so privately, they would ridicule her. “The bitch has won,” was the reaction of one Smith Square insider on discovering the identity of his new leader.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/four-decades-on-from-callaghan-s-collapse-history-is-repeating-itself-v7tk2wpcf
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Crace on top form:

    For more than two years, the prime minister has spoken Maybot, a very primitive computer language only capable of basic sentences that are more or less grammatical, but still almost totally devoid of meaning. Since she became Leader in Name Only, Lino – hard to nail down, but easy to walk over – she can’t even manage that. ...

    There was still time for Corbyn to have a hissy and stomp out of a meeting with the prime minister because Chuka Umunna had also been invited – you can rely on the Labour leader to choose the wrong molehill to die on.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/the-maybots-binary-messages-have-become-just-a-series-of-noughts?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Are 5,000 people an hour really signing an online petition in the middle of the night?

    https://petition.parliament.uk
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    AndyJS said:

    Are 5,000 people an hour really signing an online petition in the middle of the night?

    https://petition.parliament.uk

    If you look at the 'Hotspots' - North London, Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, Edinburgh, possibly.....or thats where the BotFarms VPNs say they are.....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Idea for a grass-roots movement to fix our broken politics: We need to get together and create a bloc of voters that refuses on principle to vote for any party that lets its members choose its leader.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    bunnco said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nothing for The Saj?

    Saj has blown it. Hancock/Hunt are just too boring. The hardcore brexiteers are coalescing around Raab but he's just a weird loner who has spent even less time in the bar making friends than Theresa May ever did and has little electoral appeal - even in his own constituency association. Seriously.

    The challenge for the Conservatives is to skip a generation and be relevant to a new cohort of younger voters with an aspirational message and a proposition that is rooted in Conservative values of 'free enterprise, strong policing and defence' rather than personality [although noting personality is important].

    That's why I think that today's Sun endorsement of Truss is significant: They recognise that she is the only one making the case for lower taxes and 'an end to the nanny state claptrap and the virtue signalling and hectoring over what we eat or throw away'.

    And, separately, again in the Sun, Mercer is calling for a change in the Party leadership rules but he hasn't had the ministerial exposure to make him a proper front-rank contender


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Your signature is self-reverential.

    Less is more.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    AndyJS said:

    Are 5,000 people an hour really signing an online petition in the middle of the night?

    https://petition.parliament.uk

    I don't see why not, firstly there are British people all over the world on different timezones, and secondly even without insomnia there's always somebody awake if you combine the early-risers and the night owls. I think evolution sets it up that way so there's somebody to keep an eye out for predators.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    I reckon there's value on Theresa May surviving a bit longer, maybe to the end of the year. I just laid her being gone by end March at 13 on bf. If we get no deal, she will feel it's her duty to soldier on for at least the immediate disruption.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited March 2019
    rkrkrk said:

    I reckon there's value on Theresa May surviving a bit longer, maybe to the end of the year. I just laid her being gone by end March at 13 on bf. If we get no deal, she will feel it's her duty to soldier on for at least the immediate disruption.

    Yup, and the reasons why she's still there are still there: MPs have to sack her, and they know the final decision on her replacement is up to their members, who are bonkers.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    While not in the Howe class an impassioned speech from Grieve:

    https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1108443627997577217
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    rkrkrk said:

    I reckon there's value on Theresa May surviving a bit longer, maybe to the end of the year. I just laid her being gone by end March at 13 on bf. If we get no deal, she will feel it's her duty to soldier on for at least the immediate disruption.

    I am not so sure. Every MP I have heard since is seething; they all know she has gone out of her way to sideline Parliament and keep them out of the process (even her ministers and former ministers know that) and grandstanding like this with the public attempting to dump the blame on MPs for her own ineptitude has gone down appallingly. And even her friends can see that she has lied repeatedly, and failed on her own terms. Her credibility in parliament is at rock bottom.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    AndyJS said:

    Are 5,000 people an hour really signing an online petition in the middle of the night?

    https://petition.parliament.uk

    I don't see why not, firstly there are British people all over the world on different timezones, and secondly even without insomnia there's always somebody awake if you combine the early-risers and the night owls. I think evolution sets it up that way so there's somebody to keep an eye out for predators.
    And with no deal possibly a week away, a lot of people may not be sleeping quite so well right now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    That Sun front page is absurd. You would think she had come out for a referendum.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    I’m not saying that trust in government is low and falling, but...

    Poll: 25% of European voters would trust AI more than human politicians to make policy decisions.

    https://qz.com/1576057/could-ai-make-better-policy-than-politicians/
    https://politics.slashdot.org/story/19/03/20/207206/many-people-think-ai-could-make-better-policy-decisions-than-politicians
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    When will it overtake 17.4 million?
This discussion has been closed.