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  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    GIN1138 said:

    Who is going to make the TV broadcast on evening of 29th, announcing formally that we have failed to reach a deal and therefore we are leaving without a deal in a few hours time?

    I bloody hope it is not May, who should have fallen on her sword before then, or been thrown out by a Cabinet that has finally found some guts.

    Boris will seize his destiny and get his Churchill moment? :D
    In Britain’s second darkest hour? :p
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    New PM? Timing's a little tight there, isn't it?
    Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
    The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.
    Ken Clarke. One job government. Revoke A50. Then straight to a GE.
    +1
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Currently the number of ERG irreconcilables is rising rather than falling.

    From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
    But surely Glorious Strategist Theresa May accounted for that, right?
    All else being equal some remainers should logically move over to the deal as the possibility of hard Brexit increases. There are far more remainers in the HoC than leavers too.

    This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.
    Like being told they are a bunch of sh**heads by the sitting PM for example?
    They are, but it was tactless to say so.
    It might have been received better from someone without their own shitheadery problem.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    After PM, I wonder what job May could do? Chief negotiator for a two state solution in the middle east? ...what could possibly go wrong.

    Pizza Hut advert
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    And, from the horse's mouth:

    Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:

    "What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/21/brexit-latest-news-eu-summit-article-50-extension-theresa-may-appeal-to-nation-backfires-as-mps-accuse-her-of-stoking-hate-politics-live

    Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.

    Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.

    The Cabinet can stop her.
    Are you being serious? :D
    The PM is first amongst equals under our system. She can be stopped if there is the will. There isn't of course.
    Stopped how? And do what instead, with whose votes?
    I miss the Tory men in grey suits.
    Yes, this reckless experiment of giving party members a say in things has turned out to be a disaster, for both main parties.
    My guess is May would've ended up PM under the old system, once Gove had taken himself and Boris out. And Cameron was a significantly better pick than Davis would've been.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Why not both ?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?

    This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.

    Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
    But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
    The issue has always been what sort of "victory" No Deal delivers.....
    No, the overwhelming line here until last week was overwhelmingly that ERGers were going to result in No Brexit.
    It's certainly what I expected.
    The one guarantee so far from all this is that what we expect and what happens can be wildly divergent.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished

    Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    900000 fwiw
  • Don't forget the joys of the constitution. The Prime Minister needs not be the leader of the largest party. Nor an MP. If we're at constitutional coup d'etat stage you need to think a little wider than who in the cabinet will be the next temporary leader of the Tory Party.

    Once the powers that be decide May has to be removed the future of the party won't be the consideration. Just the fact that its legal (which means the Crown has to give authority. And by "the crown" it doesn't mean Brenda, just her authority.

    May looks ill...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    And was just 60,000 this time yesterday
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?

    Nothing has changed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Floater said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    New PM? Timing's a little tight there, isn't it?
    Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
    The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.
    Ken Clarke. One job government. Revoke A50. Then straight to a GE.
    Why would the tories vote to destroy themselves?
    So what route ahead from where we are doesn't involve at least a generous helping of Tory self destruction?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    kyf_100 said:

    It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.
    Treason next Friday then. I honestly can't see a way out now. May is completely out of control.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414

    So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?

    Oh and Jeremy still thinks he can get his alternative plan sorted in 7 days...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kyf_100 said:

    It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.
    I see no real world evidence that no deal will be more damaging than ongoing uncertainty for years or the damage to trust and confidence that a revocation would cause.

    Parliament has a binary choice. If it wants to stop no deal then it can ratify the only deal before it. If it wants to reject the deal, we can go to no deal. It really needs to be one of those two options and the decision needs to be made within the next week - it would be grossly negligent to continue this farce beyond that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    17400000, fwiw :smiley:
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    17400000, fwiw :smiley:
    Keep clutching that straw...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?

    Oh and Jeremy still thinks he can get his alternative plan sorted in 7 days...
    If ones sole concern is a Corbyn led Gov't then he's played a blinder.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    And was just 60,000 this time yesterday
    Only another 16.5 million to go.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    907,000. One million within reach this afternoon, surely.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    And was just 60,000 this time yesterday
    Will be 13.5m by this time tomorrow, unless the growth rate changes for some reason.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    17400000, fwiw :smiley:
    Keep clutching that straw...
    All 17 million of them. :p
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Scott_P said:
    Varadkar wants No Deal? Who'd've thunk it...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    Another helpful intervention. Any sign of diggers on their side?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    And was just 60,000 this time yesterday
    Only another 16.5 million to go.
    I think you'll find that the 17.4m has shrunk considerably since 2016
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    eristdoof said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    New PM? Timing's a little tight there, isn't it?
    Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
    The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.
    We could have a new PM in time for tea if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign in favour of a senior Cabinet minister. There need be no contested election if the succession is stitched up beforehand, as it will be.
    The handover of PM takes less than an hour, and there must be a PM even if it is only a caretaker PM. What is doubtful about your proposition is the "if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign". I personally cannot see anything that will make her agree to resign until the outcome of the next 8 days is finalised. Not even an Edwina Curry type of secret being made public.
    Hammond resigning might do it.

    Gauke and Rudd are minor details. But a Chex going is always massive news.

    Unfortunately Hammond has all the dynamism of a squid, but you never know, even squid can be made palatable if you salt them and add chilli.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished

    Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished

    As I have pointed out before, this is not "LGBT rights" teaching. It is part of the "British values" programme, not PSHE. It is an anti-bullying section as part of the tolerance unit.
    It merely suggests that non-straight people are one of the groups, amongst a great number, it is wrong to bully.
    This is Section 28 returning in a curious alliance of religious fundamentalists and "parental rights" social conservatives.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    kyf_100 said:

    It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.
    I see no real world evidence that no deal will be more damaging than ongoing uncertainty for years or the damage to trust and confidence that a revocation would cause.

    Parliament has a binary choice. If it wants to stop no deal then it can ratify the only deal before it. If it wants to reject the deal, we can go to no deal. It really needs to be one of those two options and the decision needs to be made within the next week - it would be grossly negligent to continue this farce beyond that.
    Keep those fingers plugged in your ears.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    What percentage of the people filling this petition are likely to be out this weekend at the planned marches? If the petition gets to a million by end of afternoon I can imagine we're likely to see at least 25% of that in London Saturday.
  • So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?

    Oh and Jeremy still thinks he can get his alternative plan sorted in 7 days...
    In those two posts folks you have it spot on

    I have given up on each and everyone of them.

    I hope the EU stops this charade on the spot and refuses an extension or makes it only dependent on the deal passing

    I have had enough as has most everyone - there is a life going on out there away from the asylum that is the HOC
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    The great thing about the Revoke petition is it makes the Kyle-Wilson Compromise look like a compromise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Endillion said:

    Scott_P said:
    Varadkar wants No Deal? Who'd've thunk it...
    No, he wants the deal to pass that the EU27 agreed with May.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    philiph said:

    Andrew said:

    eristdoof said:

    Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.

    For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
    Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.

    Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
    At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
    Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Scott_P said:
    Rutte should focus on issues closer to home...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_P said:
    So. We no deal. May goes. Boris inherits the scorched remains and governs like he’s appearing in an 80s dystopian future movie. Snake Pliskin arrives in the UK.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    The great thing about the Revoke petition is it makes the Kyle-Wilson Compromise look like a compromise.

    Yes, it would make passing the 'deal' subject to ratification in a further public vote seem tame.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2019
    A totally uninformed suggestion: could May & Corbyn negotiate a post-Brexit GE [with the future political relationship to be part of the manifesto process] as the price for Labour officially supporting or abstaining on the WA?

    What would be the mechanism for enforcement? Presumably a leadership change for the Tories would be part of the process too - so set a date in September for the GE. Maybe a leadership change for Labour too.

    Could TM get this past her own Cabinet/party? Would she be prepared to, for the sake of the Deal?
  • Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished

    Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished

    This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Would she be prepared to, for the sake of the Deal?

    She appears willing to burn everything to the ground for Brexit.

    The deal does not appear to be a requirement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Scott_P said:
    This rather makes a nonsense of some of the claims below...
    "when asked who would be to blame for a no-deal Brexit, the public are most likely to say the government and Tory MPs...."
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished

    Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished

    This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
    Back to the 50's then.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    So. We no deal. May goes. Boris inherits the scorched remains and governs like he’s appearing in an 80s dystopian future movie. Snake Pliskin arrives in the UK.
    We already have a one-eyed government...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    eristdoof said:

    philiph said:

    Andrew said:

    eristdoof said:

    Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.

    For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
    Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.

    Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
    At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
    Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
    Indeed. Whose jolly wheeze was that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished

    Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished

    This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
    The Guardianista Thomas the Tank Engine is racist types must be in a terrible bind....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Scott_P said:
    Rutte should focus on issues closer to home...
    Exactly
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Pulpstar said:

    Endillion said:

    Scott_P said:
    Varadkar wants No Deal? Who'd've thunk it...
    No, he wants the deal to pass that the EU27 agreed with May.
    No deal would shaft Ireland big time.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished

    Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished

    This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
    The Guardianista Thomas the Tank Engine is racist types must be in a terrible bind....
    Nope - they will ignore this and go after christian women who use the wrong pro noun
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    eristdoof said:

    philiph said:

    Andrew said:

    eristdoof said:

    Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.

    For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
    Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.

    Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
    At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
    Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
    I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Endillion said:

    Scott_P said:
    Varadkar wants No Deal? Who'd've thunk it...
    No, he wants the deal to pass that the EU27 agreed with May.
    Tough.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    And was just 60,000 this time yesterday
    Only another 16.5 million to go.
    I think you'll find that the 17.4m has shrunk considerably since 2016
    Well once we've exited you can campaign for a rejoin referendum and we can see.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Another backer of MV2 says he may not back MV3 now.

    Stupendous.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eristdoof said:

    philiph said:

    Andrew said:

    eristdoof said:

    Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.

    For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
    Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.

    Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
    At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
    Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
    I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.
    If May refuses to resign how can Her Majesty be persuaded? That seems to be a bit of a legal grey area.
  • Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.

    What victory?

    I know the headbangers think a scorched Earth No Deal will see them lauded as liberators and feted for 1000 years.

    I am less sure that the medicine queues and food riots will be chanting their names in praise...
    Do yo honestly, really truly honestly think there will be food riots or queues for medicines (beyond the standard pre Brexit NHS efficiency levels) if we leave next week without a deal?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    New PM? Timing's a little tight there, isn't it?
    Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
    You’d need 90 Labour MPs plus 180 Tories plus TIGers plus LDs plus SNP to back someone like Liddington or Hilary Benn via a written agreement for 3 months or so with a guaranteed election at the end.

    Mass casualties at the end.
    I'd have thought 180 Labour to 90 Tories would be more probable.
    Fair point.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?

    This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.

    Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
    But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
    I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?
    Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.

    Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.

    I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Do yo honestly, really truly honestly think there will be food riots or queues for medicines (beyond the standard pre Brexit NHS efficiency levels) if we leave next week without a deal?

    People called the police when KFC ran out of chicken.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300

    eristdoof said:

    philiph said:

    Andrew said:

    eristdoof said:

    Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.

    For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
    Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.

    Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
    At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
    Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
    I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.
    If May refuses to resign how can Her Majesty be persuaded? That seems to be a bit of a legal grey area.
    Presumably someone else can propose a vote of confidence in an alternative administration before then?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Scott_P said:
    thats pretty damning on George Osborne
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Sean_F said:


    The petition seems to be running at 1-1,500 a minute, now, although a couple of thousand were just deleted.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1108682038184419328
    So so predictable. So predictable that I predicted you would do it down thread.
    Did you? Must have missed it.

    I normally skip straight over your posts.
    Any reason you have to be so rude? I was trying to be quite nice to you last night and conciliatory in trying to explain to you why people are baiting you over the numbers thing (but don't when you make other rational posts). If you go back and look at the threads after you left last night there was some gentle humour at your expense on counting numbers (not by me). You seem very touchy about this. I don't know why. Your arguments are usually rational, but just the other day, pretty well unprompted, you commented that these marches 'boil your piss'. That isn't a rational response. Neither is your one sided view on the numbers. Of course there will be illegitimate numbers in the petition. of course nobody knows the numbers at the march. None of it really matters. Only the ball park is important. But it really, really mattters to you. Try not to be rude. I won't be rude to you.
    You’ve been very rude to me.

    If you don’t want it back then don’t belittle or patronise me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    A deal vs no deal vote. Here we go!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Scott_P said:
    Better take the bigger car to CostCo tomorrow...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Scott_P said:
    Better take the bigger car to CostCo tomorrow...
    We may see panic buying on Saturday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    That is very helpful to May dealers, and the ERG. Less so to the remainers.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2019
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    A deal vs no deal vote. Here we go!
    As predicted below by the sage of Norwich
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Afternoon all :)

    I'm still not convinced how and indeed if MV3 gets to the Commons next week. I assume May is hoping those intent on voting against will be harangued by worried Council candidates and terrified Mail-carrying constituents into changing their minds but it doesn't look hopeful and Bercow has to play ball as well.

    If the clock runs out, doesn't the WA run out with it?

    If we revoke before 29/3 we can re-instate A50 at a point in the future which would in theory allow us to leave the EU but hopefully with a WA which commands a majority in the Commons.

    The "in theory" bit allows for the possibility of a second referendum (remote though more feasible if it were do we want to continue the process of leaving the EU or remain?) or a GE (if a Party with a manifesto pledge to remain as EU members wins a majority, doesn't that supersede the 23/6/16 result?)

    I don't quite see what purpose a GE would serve as a) 500 or so of the MPs already there would be there again and b) both the Conservative and Labour parties would remain hopelessly divided.

    The "unknown" is what impact a No Deal will have. September 1992 is widely regarded as a political disaster for the Major Government as its reputation for economic management was shattered but perversely many now view what happened as economically positive - I recall Andrew Neil would call it "White Wednesday". Interest rates fell sharply as sterling devalued and we enjoyed a prolonged period of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and rising asset prices.

    Talking to my estate agent friend yesterday, his anecdotal report was no one was talking about Brexit, indeed people were ignoring it. Property was being bought and sold but, he added, prices were broadly similar to 2018 so the market has plateaued in terms of value if not activity.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    That is what is needed. Then it is sign or no deal

    Or revoke
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    A totally uninformed suggestion: could May & Corbyn negotiate a post-Brexit GE [with the future political relationship to be part of the manifesto process] as the price for Labour officially supporting or abstaining on the WA?

    What would be the mechanism for enforcement? Presumably a leadership change for the Tories would be part of the process too - so set a date in September for the GE. Maybe a leadership change for Labour too.

    Could TM get this past her own Cabinet/party? Would she be prepared to, for the sake of the Deal?

    May is a stubborn and dictatorial leader. Corbyn is a dogmatic and ideological leader.

    So, no.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Scott_P said:
    thats pretty damning on George Osborne
    George Osborne told people Brexit would be without consequences? I assume you have a citation?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Scott_P said:
    Better take the bigger car to CostCo tomorrow...
    We may see panic buying on Saturday.
    To be honest, Mrs U doesn't need much excuse when its comes to CostCo...she seem to end up buying like we are facing a national emergency every time. I think we still have 4 years of a 5 year supply of toothpaste to get through.
  • Scott_P said:

    Do yo honestly, really truly honestly think there will be food riots or queues for medicines (beyond the standard pre Brexit NHS efficiency levels) if we leave next week without a deal?

    People called the police when KFC ran out of chicken.
    Haha I think you have a point there Scott. 😊 I think it might be a bit like the last petrol crisis, the odd empty shelf in the immediate aftermath at worst but back to normal within a week or 2.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,501
    edited March 2019
    Floater said:

    Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished

    Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished

    This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
    Back to the 50's then.

    Hopefully not. We do have a quandery at the moment where it seems that Islamophobia trumps Homophobia which trumps other Religious views. I do wonder what would have happened if those bakers in Northern Ireland had been Moslems. And before anyone thinks I'm being more of an idiot than usual, I detest anyone discriminating against anyone on the grounds of race, religion, sexuality or gender - but I do understand discrimination on the grounds of stupidity.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?

    This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.

    Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
    But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
    I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?
    Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.

    Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.

    I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
    There are any number of contingent possibilities if we exit with No Deal.

    Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.

    The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Another backer of MV2 says he may not back MV3 now.

    Stupendous.

    Ben Bradley? Voted Remain, became committed Brexiter to win Mansfield. Voted against MV1, for MV2. Now seems to want to continue his remarkable streak of not knowing what is in his mind.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Scott_P said:
    That is what is needed. Then it is sign or no deal

    Or revoke
    I thought Jezza was getting concensus on unicorns? Lol
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    148grss said:

    What percentage of the people filling this petition are likely to be out this weekend at the planned marches? If the petition gets to a million by end of afternoon I can imagine we're likely to see at least 25% of that in London Saturday.

    Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Brief trumpet blow. :smiley:

    This is my 20,000th post!

    Time well spent hopefully.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Scott_P said:
    That is what is needed. Then it is sign or no deal

    Or revoke
    And it may be significant that Corbyn declined to rule out revocation in response to media questions earlier.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Brief trumpet blow. :smiley:

    This is my 20,000th post!

    Time well spent hopefully.

    Your posts are very impressive. You must be very proud.


    :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Scott_P said:
    That is what is needed. Then it is sign or no deal

    Or revoke
    And it may be significant that Corbyn declined to rule out revocation in response to media questions earlier.
    The same Corbyn who said he’d vote leave in a second referendum?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?

    This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.

    Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
    But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
    I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?
    Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.

    Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.

    I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
    There are any number of contingent possibilities if we exit with No Deal.

    Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.

    The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.
    The EU will also move on, and continue in a direction that is an anathema to our interests. The EU we would be rejoining will not be the same EU we left.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Scott_P said:
    That is what is needed. Then it is sign or no deal

    Or revoke
    And it may be significant that Corbyn declined to rule out revocation in response to media questions earlier.
    It's one of the options in his unicorn suite of proposals that are wowing Europe as we speak
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    Scott_P said:
    That is what is needed. Then it is sign or no deal

    Or revoke
    embarrassing it takes France to sort this out - how many times does it need saying Deal, No Deal, Revoke - that's it, the HoC needs to decide between Revoke or Deal or accept No Deal as the outcome
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    17400000, fwiw :smiley:
    Oooooh, good point.

    Actually the correct comparator is the difference of votes. As nobody has started a petition saying yes please, we want to become a third world backwater next Friday, that is 950000 - 0 signatures on the petition vs a difference of 1.3m in the referendum. We'll be there by tea time.
  • Brief trumpet blow. :smiley:

    This is my 20,000th post!

    Time well spent hopefully.

    Well done. It is a milestone
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    17400000, fwiw :smiley:
    Strange that this time yesterday there were those bragging that the No Deal petition launched 4 months ago was well ahead with 350,000 signatories. They seem to have gone quiet since the revoke petition is coming close to a million in 24 hours.

    I agree it may not signify a great deal but there are a lot of very angry people out there and not all of them are people who think Brexit is being "betrayed". If the leavers manoeuvre us into a no deal a week from now this will be the tip of the iceberg.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If May refuses to revoke after a vote next Thursdsy there's no time to remove her and revoke. Parliament cannot exercise the royal prerogative.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?

    This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.

    Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
    But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
    I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?
    Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.

    Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.

    I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
    There are any number of contingent possibilities if we exit with No Deal.

    Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.

    The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.
    How much evidence do you think there is that the electorate is moving on?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    900000 fwiw

    17400000, fwiw :smiley:
    Oooooh, good point.

    Actually the correct comparator is the difference of votes. As nobody has started a petition saying yes please, we want to become a third world backwater next Friday, that is 950000 - 0 signatures on the petition vs a difference of 1.3m in the referendum. We'll be there by tea time.
    There is no correct comparator, people will be far more motivated to sign one of these things if it isn’t already going to happen (one way or another) by default.
This discussion has been closed.