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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the latest from PB/Polling Matters the podcaster try to ans

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the latest from PB/Polling Matters the podcaster try to answer ” What’s going on and what do the public think?”

After a breath-taking week, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi sit down and look at the numbers. What do the public think about how Brexit is going, the prospect of no deal and where we go from here? Plus, if a General Election comes, who stands the best chance of winning?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove led the whole country down the garden path.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited March 2019

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove led the whole country down the garden path.
    I'm not convinced by the Gove love-in but the Telegraph joined in yesterday.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/21/silent-assassin-strike-michael-gove-tipped-replace-theresa-may/

    Ironically it praises Gove's anti-Corbyn speech which, just like Theresa May's, torpedoed the support he was supposed to be seeking, in his case that of Labour backbenchers. Gove is May in a suit and tie: he's right; you're wrong; any questions?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Were heading for Andrex Brexit, supersoft and long
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @WilliamGlenn Letwin is going to lose you your bet
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    edited March 2019
    Guardian: “What this model is designed for is to make it clear that no deal is not the EU’s choice, it is the UK’s choice,” a diplomatic source said. “The prime minister is braced for a long extension, but doesn’t want to take responsibility for it,” the source said.

    The EU had initially looked at solely offering an extension up until 22 May, the day before European elections would be held, on the condition May’s deal passed next week.

    But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.


    May - who originally wanted a long extension before being turned over by her own Cabinet - is being forced back there. And Parliament now has time to take control and decide a plan,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    I see there is a couple more weeks for Junker to get his hard hat on and start construction on the border....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    I wonder whether we'll see MV3 now. Even May can see she'll be defeated again, and will be forced to climb down, and another big defeat does her no favours. She will be forced to eat humble pie and would be better going straight for some sort of indicative vote process directly; Lidlington's previous commitment gives her cover to claim that was what she always intended to do.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Damned if I know what is going on but as discussed on the podcast, there is precious little sign of Labour being blamed for it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    IanB2 said:

    Guardian:But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.

    That's a nice gloss:

    'time to take control'

    aka

    'make their fecking minds up on how they circumvent the referendum result'.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    IanB2 said:

    Guardian: “What this model is designed for is to make it clear that no deal is not the EU’s choice, it is the UK’s choice,” a diplomatic source said. “The prime minister is braced for a long extension, but doesn’t want to take responsibility for it,” the source said.

    The EU had initially looked at solely offering an extension up until 22 May, the day before European elections would be held, on the condition May’s deal passed next week.

    But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.


    May - who originally wanted a long extension before being turned over by her own Cabinet - is being forced back there. And Parliament now has time to take control and decide a plan,

    The EU leaders have done what Parliament ought to have done, and didn’t, long since.
    They have said to May “no more can kicking”, and enforced it.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Earlier on Thursday, May had made an address to leaders described as “90 minutes of nothing”, by sources

    I see that .... nothing has changed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    IanB2 said:

    Guardian:But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.

    That's a nice gloss:

    'time to take control'

    aka

    'make their fecking minds up on how they circumvent the referendum result'.
    Yes, MPs now need to rise to the challenge. They moaned at May's depiction of them Wednesday; well, they now have a few weeks to prove her wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Guardian:But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.

    That's a nice gloss:

    'time to take control'

    aka

    'make their fecking minds up on how they circumvent the referendum result'.
    Yes, MPs now need to rise to the challenge. They moaned at May's depiction of them Wednesday; well, they now have a few weeks to prove her wrong.
    They need a leader, though.
    It being quite clear that neither May nor Corbyn even begin to meet that description.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The EU have done what they can. It is now time for Parliament finally to make decisions.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    EU lays down a royal flush. UK looks at own cards: Mr Bun the Baker, Pikachu, a Shadowmage, a fireball spell, and the Fool

    — Thomas Cogley (@JohnnyPixels) September 23, 2016
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"
    Norway is a meaningful compromise, which could have been, and might just still be reached.

    It would mean pissing off most people, but to a lesser extent overall than any other likely solution.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    IanB2 said:

    Guardian:But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.

    That's a nice gloss:

    'time to take control'

    aka

    'make their fecking minds up on how they circumvent the referendum result'.
    The referendum is no longer valid. The Brexiters have had their chance and squandered it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"
    Norway is a meaningful compromise, which could have been, and might just still be reached.

    It would mean pissing off most people, but to a lesser extent overall than any other likely solution.

    Norway does everything except deliver on the mandate obtained, which was an anti-immigration platform.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Damned if I know what is going on but as discussed on the podcast, there is precious little sign of Labour being blamed for it.

    I think it is luck rather than judgement, but I think Labour have played this about as well as it could be played given the hand the referendum result dealt them. And the media have done them a great favour by focusing on the internal Conservative psychodrama.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    IanB2 said:

    Guardian:But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.

    That's a nice gloss:

    'time to take control'

    aka

    'make their fecking minds up on how they circumvent the referendum result'.
    The referendum is no longer valid.
    Really? On what democratic principles do you base that?

    Was the 2017 GE won by a party promising to not implement Brexit?

    If the May govt falls and is replaced at a General Election by one promising not to implement Brexit you'll have a case. Until then, not.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    IanB2 said:

    Guardian:But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.

    That's a nice gloss:

    'time to take control'

    aka

    'make their fecking minds up on how they circumvent the referendum result'.
    The referendum is no longer valid.
    Really? On what democratic principles do you base that?

    Was the 2017 GE won by a party promising to not implement Brexit?

    If the May govt falls and is replaced at a General Election by one promising not to implement Brexit you'll have a case. Until then, not.
    A contract lapses if one of the parties does not deliver what it promises. Remember, we could have been out of the EU already. Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 the day after the vote. Jeremy Corbyn said the same on the day. Brexit hasn't been delivered. It can't be delivered.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    IanB2 said:

    Guardian:But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.

    That's a nice gloss:

    'time to take control'

    aka

    'make their fecking minds up on how they circumvent the referendum result'.
    The referendum is no longer valid.
    Really? On what democratic principles do you base that?

    Was the 2017 GE won by a party promising to not implement Brexit?

    If the May govt falls and is replaced at a General Election by one promising not to implement Brexit you'll have a case. Until then, not.
    It can't be delivered.
    Watch this space.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    May’s red lines created the mess. She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest. The red lines created the backstop. Would Gove have been as needy, as insecure and as stupid as May? Possibly not. But he has supported her all the way.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    edited March 2019
    Leaked document from the EU Summit:

    Dear Angela,
    I was wondering if by any chance you had stored that hard border that you used to have that worked east to west and whether it was capable of working north to south as well.
    yours,
    Leo
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    IanB2 said:

    I wonder whether we'll see MV3 now. Even May can see she'll be defeated again, and will be forced to climb down, and another big defeat does her no favours. She will be forced to eat humble pie and would be better going straight for some sort of indicative vote process directly; Lidlington's previous commitment gives her cover to claim that was what she always intended to do.

    May has pretty much nailed her career to the deal and continued to do so last night. So what should really happen is that she holds MV3, it goes down by a long way (now that mostly everyone knows it's not just her deal or no deal at the end of the month), May then says ok it will need a new plan, that means a longer extension and EU parliament elections, I have to resign on principle and let Parliament get on with it.

    What WILL happen is that she'll lose MV3, the EU will go "what's your new plan" and she'll just...not answer. Probably mumble something about MV4. Then we'll largely be back to where we were a couple of days ago with nobody really knowing what the hell is happening.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest.
    She drew them because she identified what had motivated LEAVE voters to the horror of their bien pensant betters.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    May’s red lines created the mess. She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest. The red lines created the backstop. Would Gove have been as needy, as insecure and as stupid as May? Possibly not. But he has supported her all the way.
    I'm far from convinced that's the case: there was a vote to leave, and she believed that that vote needed to be respected.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    IanB2 said:

    I wonder whether we'll see MV3 now. Even May can see she'll be defeated again, and will be forced to climb down, and another big defeat does her no favours. She will be forced to eat humble pie and would be better going straight for some sort of indicative vote process directly; Lidlington's previous commitment gives her cover to claim that was what she always intended to do.

    Yes, everyone's assuming it's going to come back for another vote, but I don't see how Bercow allows it. There have been no substantive changes to the motion.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Yes, everyone's assuming it's going to come back for another vote, but I don't see how Bercow allows it. There have been no substantive changes to the motion.

    The date has changed...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited March 2019
    The first of many, I fear.

    The question is what will they replace them with? Airbus have a massive backlog for their equivalent jet - nearly 6000 ordered but not delivered - and a relatively build rate of 63 a month.

    According to Wiki, Gardua have 8 A320neo's on order, with six delivered - so at least they'll have some competency with the type. Or perhaps they've decided they don't need a replacement yet.

    Edit, it seems they're looking at other Boeing models:

    "The airline could switch the order, valued at $6 billion at list prices, to other Boeing models, Rizal told Reuters. He said negotiations with Boeing were ongoing and Airbus SE jets were not under consideration."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    May’s red lines created the mess. She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest. The red lines created the backstop. Would Gove have been as needy, as insecure and as stupid as May? Possibly not. But he has supported her all the way.
    I'm far from convinced that's the case: there was a vote to leave, and she believed that that vote needed to be respected.
    Like our MPs SO knows what he's against (May's red lines) but its less clear what he is for, that would both respect the referendum result and try to balance the conflicting desires of Leave & Remain voters.

    I think the EU deal does that - control of our laws & immigration (Leave voters top 2 motivations), while minimising the impact the consequences of that have on the economy (Remain voters #1 motivation).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    If MV3 turns out to be as disappointing as most sequels (Godfather, Toy Story and MIB being exceptions that prove the rule) then it seems to me that the most likely outcome is that we will leave without a deal on 11th April. What I would anticipate is that the intervening period will be used to bridge the gap so far as possible between the WA and no deal with as many mini deals as possible. I also suspect, despite the ravings of the ERG, that the UK government will undertake to pay the monies it has promised to pay under the WA anyway for the very good reason that we have agreed that we owe it.

    What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?

    1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for goods entering and leaving the SM. Both sides might well turn a blind eye for a time but I don't see how we avoid this. I suspect we will in fact agree, as part of the mini deals, that tariffs are set at zero between the UK and the EU but even without that there are going to be regulatory issues. We will diminish these by unilaterally undertaking to ensure regulatory equivalence until something is worked out.

    2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone has yet agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.

    3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.

    4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.

    5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.

    So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest.
    She drew them because she identified what had motivated LEAVE voters to the horror of their bien pensant betters.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html

    Yes, she chose to completely ignore the people who voted Remain in favour of a sub-set of those who voted Leave, so ensuring that no unifying Brexit Deal was possible. And all for a few good headlines in the right wing press.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Yes, everyone's assuming it's going to come back for another vote, but I don't see how Bercow allows it. There have been no substantive changes to the motion.

    The date has changed...
    Not a substantive change. It didn't lose by a 150/200 majority because we were due to leave on March 29 as opposed to April 11.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    Like our MPs SO knows what he's against (May's red lines) but its less clear what he is for, that would both respect the referendum result and try to balance the conflicting desires of Leave & Remain voters.

    I think the EU deal does that - control of our laws & immigration (Leave voters top 2 motivations), while minimising the impact the consequences of that have on the economy (Remain voters #1 motivation).

    Good morning. Sorry to have been away for so long (report season). Hope I didn't miss anything.

    The tragedy lost in all of this is that this is a hell of a good deal for the UK. Indeed, arguably although it is only a Withdrawal Agreement, once it's passed we should stop negotiating and leave it. That way we're out of CAP, CFP, FM, CJEU, EUC and the rest of the alphabet soup, but still have free trade with Europe.

    But unfortunately very few people have taken the trouble to read and understand it, so their views are shaped by politicians and journalists, most of whom are frankly pig ignorant and are merely shrieking their own prejudices rather than facts. This is especially true given that the most prominent politician outside the government is one of the most prejudiced as well as most ignorant men alive - and he cannot even make up his tiny mind whether he wants the deal, a referendum, or someone to suck his cock (bring your own microscope).

    I know it's a cliché in every generation but we are really appallingly ill-served by our politicians right now - possibly as badly as at any time since the 1820s. It's deeply frustrating.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    The first of many, I fear.

    The question is what will they replace them with? Airbus have a massive backlog for their equivalent jet - nearly 6000 ordered but not delivered - and a relatively build rate of 63 a month.

    According to Wiki, Gardua have 8 A320neo's on order, with six delivered - so at least they'll have some competency with the type. Or perhaps they've decided they don't need a replacement yet.

    Edit, it seems they're looking at other Boeing models:

    "The airline could switch the order, valued at $6 billion at list prices, to other Boeing models, Rizal told Reuters. He said negotiations with Boeing were ongoing and Airbus SE jets were not under consideration."
    Lion Air have 187 still to be delivered. But then what did they expect when their proxies muttered darkly about 'Indonesian pilots' (even though the Lion one was actually Indian.)

    Garuda had a fleet review coming up so they may be making a virtue of a necessity - but as a passenger I prefer the 320 over the 737.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"
    Norway is a meaningful compromise, which could have been, and might just still be reached.

    It would mean pissing off most people, but to a lesser extent overall than any other likely solution.

    Norway does everything except deliver on the mandate obtained, which was an anti-immigration platform.
    Norway is damage limitation. It is better than any other form of Brexit, but it doesn't offer any advantages to anyone over the status quo. Which is why noone much has gone for it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    An article by Tim Harford from 2016 on the problem with automatic systems in planes, cars, etc.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/11/crash-how-computers-are-setting-us-up-disaster
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest.
    She drew them because she identified what had motivated LEAVE voters to the horror of their bien pensant betters.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html

    Yes, she chose to completely ignore the people who voted Remain in favour of a sub-set of those who voted Leave, so ensuring that no unifying Brexit Deal was possible. And all for a few good headlines in the right wing press.
    What motivated Remain voters was worry about the economic consequences of leaving (few had any love for the EU) - hence Chequers etc.

    What would YOU have done differently?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    May’s red lines created the mess. She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest. The red lines created the backstop. Would Gove have been as needy, as insecure and as stupid as May? Possibly not. But he has supported her all the way.
    I'm far from convinced that's the case: there was a vote to leave, and she believed that that vote needed to be respected.
    Like our MPs SO knows what he's against (May's red lines) but its less clear what he is for, that would both respect the referendum result and try to balance the conflicting desires of Leave & Remain voters.

    I think the EU deal does that - control of our laws & immigration (Leave voters top 2 motivations), while minimising the impact the consequences of that have on the economy (Remain voters #1 motivation).

    I would have absolutely no problem with a Norway/Switzerland style solution. Naively, that’s what I thought we’d get as I did not believe the Conservative party would turn so profoundly anti-business. It’s why, initially, I was less bothered than many other Remain voters about the outcome of the referendum.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    Scott_P said:

    Yes, everyone's assuming it's going to come back for another vote, but I don't see how Bercow allows it. There have been no substantive changes to the motion.

    The date has changed...
    Not a substantive change. It didn't lose by a 150/200 majority because we were due to leave on March 29 as opposed to April 11.
    The change is surely the context of what has now been said by the EU. If the deal is not passed by 11th April we have left with no deal. That is new and will be narrated in the terms of the motion.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    DavidL said:

    If MV3 turns out to be as disappointing as most sequels (Godfather, Toy Story and MIB being exceptions that prove the rule) then it seems to me that the most likely outcome is that we will leave without a deal on 11th April. What I would anticipate is that the intervening period will be used to bridge the gap so far as possible between the WA and no deal with as many mini deals as possible. I also suspect, despite the ravings of the ERG, that the UK government will undertake to pay the monies it has promised to pay under the WA anyway for the very good reason that we have agreed that we owe it.

    What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?

    1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for goods entering and leaving the SM. Both sides might well turn a blind eye for a time but I don't see how we avoid this. I suspect we will in fact agree, as part of the mini deals, that tariffs are set at zero between the UK and the EU but even without that there are going to be regulatory issues. We will diminish these by unilaterally undertaking to ensure regulatory equivalence until something is worked out.

    2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone has yet agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.

    3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.

    4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.

    5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.

    So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.

    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest.
    She drew them because she identified what had motivated LEAVE voters to the horror of their bien pensant betters.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html

    Yes, she chose to completely ignore the people who voted Remain in favour of a sub-set of those who voted Leave, so ensuring that no unifying Brexit Deal was possible. And all for a few good headlines in the right wing press.
    What motivated Remain voters was worry about the economic consequences of leaving (few had any love for the EU) - hence Chequers etc.

    What would YOU have done differently?
    You seem a little peevish this morning.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"
    Norway is a meaningful compromise, which could have been, and might just still be reached.

    It would mean pissing off most people, but to a lesser extent overall than any other likely solution.

    Norway does everything except deliver on the mandate obtained, which was an anti-immigration platform.
    Norway is damage limitation. It is better than any other form of Brexit, but it doesn't offer any advantages to anyone over the status quo. Which is why noone much has gone for it.
    Norway is not in the Common Agricultural Policy, or the Common Fisheries Policy, or Ever Closer Union.

    Given how much Leavers bitch about all three you'd think that would be big wins.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    ydoethur said:

    Like our MPs SO knows what he's against (May's red lines) but its less clear what he is for, that would both respect the referendum result and try to balance the conflicting desires of Leave & Remain voters.

    I think the EU deal does that - control of our laws & immigration (Leave voters top 2 motivations), while minimising the impact the consequences of that have on the economy (Remain voters #1 motivation).

    This is especially true given that the most prominent politician outside the government is one of the most prejudiced as well as most ignorant men alive - and he cannot even make up his tiny mind whether he wants the deal, a referendum, or someone to suck his cock (bring your own microscope).
    Several names spring to mind....

    But yes - the ERG loons have been idiots trashing the deal - and the government could have done a much better job of selling it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"
    Norway is a meaningful compromise, which could have been, and might just still be reached.

    It would mean pissing off most people, but to a lesser extent overall than any other likely solution.

    Norway does everything except deliver on the mandate obtained, which was an anti-immigration platform.
    It delivers on what was on the ballot paper.

    Leavers continually assure us that it was not an anti-immigration platform. Let us hold them to that.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    If MV3 turns out to be as disappointing as most sequels (Godfather, Toy Story and MIB being exceptions that prove the rule) then it seems to me that the most likely outcome is that we will leave without a deal on 11th April. What I would anticipate is that the intervening period will be used to bridge the gap so far as possible between the WA and no deal with as many mini deals as possible. I also suspect, despite the ravings of the ERG, that the UK government will undertake to pay the monies it has promised to pay under the WA anyway for the very good reason that we have agreed that we owe it.

    What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?

    1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for goods entering and leaving the SM. Both sides might well turn a blind eye for a time but I don't see how we avoid this. I suspect we will in fact agree, as part of the mini deals, that tariffs are set at zero between the UK and the EU but even without that there are going to be regulatory issues. We will diminish these by unilaterally undertaking to ensure regulatory equivalence until something is worked out.

    2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone has yet agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.

    3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.

    4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.

    5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.

    So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.

    The EU can’t offer zero tariffs to the UK in the absence of a trade agreement. It would be illegal to do so under WTO rules. What do we do about ensuring the continued free-flow of Europe-wide supply chains that so many high-end manufacturing businesses in the UK are part of and dependent on?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:

    If MV3 turns out to be as disappointing as most sequels (Godfather, Toy Story and MIB being exceptions that prove the rule) then it seems to me that the most likely outcome is that we will leave without a deal on 11th April. What I would anticipate is that the intervening period will be used to bridge the gap so far as possible between the WA and no deal with as many mini deals as possible. I also suspect, despite the ravings of the ERG, that the UK government will undertake to pay the monies it has promised to pay under the WA anyway for the very good reason that we have agreed that we owe it.

    What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?

    1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for goods entering and leaving the SM. Both sides might well turn a blind eye for a time but I don't see how we avoid this. I suspect we will in fact agree, as part of the mini deals, that tariffs are set at zero between the UK and the EU but even without that there are going to be regulatory issues. We will diminish these by unilaterally undertaking to ensure regulatory equivalence until something is worked out.

    2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone has yet agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.

    3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.

    4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.

    5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.

    So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.

    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
    UK agriculture will be unaffected if (a) we grant work permits for temporary workers, (b) we agree tariffs at nil and (c)maintain regulatory equivalence until a trade deal is agreed. All of that seems extremely likely to me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    edited March 2019

    the ERG loons are idiots.

    FTFY :smiley:

    Maybe that's something we can all agree on? If not, let's start on Chris Grayling.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Watched ITV News last night. Whoever thought to add to the catalogue of dire portmanteaus with 'Brextension' should be forced to watch 24 hours of Piers Morgan.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"
    Norway is a meaningful compromise, which could have been, and might just still be reached.

    It would mean pissing off most people, but to a lesser extent overall than any other likely solution.

    Norway does everything except deliver on the mandate obtained, which was an anti-immigration platform.
    Norway is damage limitation. It is better than any other form of Brexit, but it doesn't offer any advantages to anyone over the status quo. Which is why noone much has gone for it.
    Norway is not in the Common Agricultural Policy, or the Common Fisheries Policy, or Ever Closer Union.

    Given how much Leavers bitch about all three you'd think that would be big wins.
    Indeed. And, despite occasional frustration from their politicians, the Norwegian people seem pretty happy with their arrangement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    Scott_P said:
    Which, speaking as a Remainer, would be good news if it wasn't for the minor detail the House Of Commons is unable to agree on anything right now. It doesn't even look certain there's a majority for revoke, which in many ways is the riskiest course of all.

    This is, in fact, the only reason why May's deal is still standing even though it keeps being voted down. Namely, it's still the only positive course of action available to us.

    Sadly, very few politicians are bright enough to see that.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:

    If MV3 turns out to be as disappointing as most sequels (Godfather, Toy Story and MIB being exceptions that prove the rule) then it seems to me that the most likely outcome is that we will leave without a deal on 11th April. What I would anticipate is that the intervening period will be used to bridge the gap so far as possible between the WA and no deal with as many mini deals as possible. I also suspect, despite the ravings of the ERG, that the UK government will undertake to pay the monies it has promised to pay under the WA anyway for the very good reason that we have agreed that we owe it.

    What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?

    1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for goods entering and leaving the SM. Both sides might well turn a blind eye for a time but I don't see how out.

    2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone has yet agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.

    3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.

    4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.

    5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.

    So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.

    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
    UK agriculture will be unaffected if (a) we grant work permits for temporary workers, (b) we agree tariffs at nil and (c)maintain regulatory equivalence until a trade deal is agreed. All of that seems extremely likely to me.

    You are proposing the EU breaks international law to help the UK. Why would it do that? How could it do that?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    DavidL said:

    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:

    If MV3 turns out to be as disappointing as most sequels (Godfather, Toy Story and MIB being exceptions that prove the rule) then it seems to me that the most likely outcome is that we will leave without a deal on 11th April. What I would anticipate is that the intervening period will be used to bridge the gap so far as possible between the WA and no deal with as many mini deals as possible. I also suspect, despite the ravings of the ERG, that the UK government will undertake to pay the monies it has promised to pay under the WA anyway for the very good reason that we have agreed that we owe it.

    What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?

    1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for goods entering and leaving the SM. Both sides might well turn a blind eye for a time but I don't see how out.

    2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone has yet agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.

    3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.

    4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.

    5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.

    So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.

    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
    UK agriculture will be unaffected if (a) we grant work permits for temporary workers, (b) we agree tariffs at nil and (c)maintain regulatory equivalence until a trade deal is agreed. All of that seems extremely likely to me.

    You are proposing the EU breaks international law to help the UK. Why would it do that? How could it do that?
    In fairness, it does it every five minutes to help the French.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    DavidL said:



    The EU can’t offer zero tariffs to the UK in the absence of a trade agreement. It would be illegal to do so under WTO rules. What do we do about ensuring the continued free-flow of Europe-wide supply chains that so many high-end manufacturing businesses in the UK are part of and dependent on?

    We can agree a temporary zero tariff arrangement pending a full trade deal. If we do so and keep regulatory equivalence there is no reason why supply chains should be affected at all. Where are the delays going to come from?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest.
    She drew them because she identified what had motivated LEAVE voters to the horror of their bien pensant betters.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html

    Yes, she chose to completely ignore the people who voted Remain in favour of a sub-set of those who voted Leave, so ensuring that no unifying Brexit Deal was possible. And all for a few good headlines in the right wing press.
    What motivated Remain voters was worry about the economic consequences of leaving (few had any love for the EU) - hence Chequers etc.

    What would YOU have done differently?

    Not drawn the red lines.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited March 2019
    For those off to work who don't have time to listen and want a quick precis; Mrs May and the Tory Party are completely screwed......

    It's all in the polls...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    DavidL said:

    If MV3 turns out to be as disappointing as most sequels (Godfather, Toy Story and MIB being exceptions that prove the rule) then it seems to me that the most likely outcome is that we will leave without a deal on 11th April. What I would anticipate is that the intervening period will be used to bridge the gap so far as possible between the WA and no deal with as many mini deals as possible. I also suspect, despite the ravings of the ERG, that the UK government will undertake to pay the monies it has promised to pay under the WA anyway for the very good reason that we have agreed that we owe it.

    What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?

    1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for goods entering and leaving the SM. Both sides might well turn a blind eye for a time but I don't see how we avoid this. I suspect we will in fact agree, as part of the mini deals, that tariffs are set at zero between the UK and the EU but even without that there are going to be regulatory issues. We will diminish these by unilaterally undertaking to ensure regulatory equivalence until something is worked out.

    2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone has yet agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.

    3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.

    4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.

    5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.

    So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.

    My VERY confident prediction is that No Deal will be extremely chaotic - far more so than now or under any Deal scenario. The EU will take a hard line to its demands. This is not what it wants. The government, which is fragile enough already, is guaranteed to collapse.

    Fortunately I only see No Deal lasting days, not months.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:



    The EU can’t offer zero tariffs to the UK in the absence of a trade agreement. It would be illegal to do so under WTO rules. What do we do about ensuring the continued free-flow of Europe-wide supply chains that so many high-end manufacturing businesses in the UK are part of and dependent on?

    We can agree a temporary zero tariff arrangement pending a full trade deal. If we do so and keep regulatory equivalence there is no reason why supply chains should be affected at all. Where are the delays going to come from?

    Not under WTO rules we can’t. What the EU gives to the UK it has to give to everyone else - unless there is a trade deal.

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    I think no deal is unlikely FOR NOW. It’s been shown the EU are willing to step back from the brink. We came the closest to no deal before the decision last night - if the EU had held the UK to the 29th March deadline unless the deal passed, as was mooted, we’d have been into serious “deal or no deal” territory, with a good chance the deal would fail.

    As it is, they’ve thrown a lifeline.

    What I suspect this means is the deal will fail, and MPs will vote to take charge of the process. I suspect we will arrive at Customs Union 2.0. This in effect will cause the May government to fall - she is resilient, but I’m not sure she can survive donning completely different clothing to he past 2.5 years.

    EU will grant an extension for leadership contest to take place, and thereafter the new Tory leader is likely to call a GE as they’re going to want a new mandate on Brexit.

    I suspect we either see a harder/no deal Brexit in October-December this year (Tory victory, assuming a Brexiteer wins the leadership) or Corbyns alternative if he gets in.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    Scott_P said:

    Yes, everyone's assuming it's going to come back for another vote, but I don't see how Bercow allows it. There have been no substantive changes to the motion.

    The date has changed...
    Not a substantive change. It didn't lose by a 150/200 majority because we were due to leave on March 29 as opposed to April 11.
    You have to remember that there are two Erskine May criteria, and the second is effecting the government's business. The change in the date (which will require other minor tweaks to the deal) coupled with the new situation the country finds itself in after Strasbourg together provide Bercow with every justification for allowing another vote. Indeed I don't think he could or should deny one.

    But it is clear that MV3 is now a meaningless formality before we get to the real next step which is the indicative vote process already promised by government. May has nothing to gain from holding MV3 now, except for form, and there is a strong argument for not bringing it forward and going straight to the next step.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    ydoethur said:

    Like our MPs SO knows what he's against (May's red lines) but its less clear what he is for, that would both respect the referendum result and try to balance the conflicting desires of Leave & Remain voters.

    I think the EU deal does that - control of our laws & immigration (Leave voters top 2 motivations), while minimising the impact the consequences of that have on the economy (Remain voters #1 motivation).

    Good morning. Sorry to have been away for so long (report season). Hope I didn't miss anything.

    The tragedy lost in all of this is that this is a hell of a good deal for the UK. Indeed, arguably although it is only a Withdrawal Agreement, once it's passed we should stop negotiating and leave it. That way we're out of CAP, CFP, FM, CJEU, EUC and the rest of the alphabet soup, but still have free trade with Europe.

    But unfortunately very few people have taken the trouble to read and understand it, so their views are shaped by politicians and journalists, most of whom are frankly pig ignorant and are merely shrieking their own prejudices rather than facts. This is especially true given that the most prominent politician outside the government is one of the most prejudiced as well as most ignorant men alive - and he cannot even make up his tiny mind whether he wants the deal, a referendum, or someone to suck his cock (bring your own microscope).

    I know it's a cliché in every generation but we are really appallingly ill-served by our politicians right now - possibly as badly as at any time since the 1820s. It's deeply frustrating.
    It would be a good deal if it confidence it in did not rely on confidence in the administration likely to be in power for the next couple of years of negotiation (a confidence required to reassure both those who fear a ‘vassal state’ status, and those who fear being turned into a regulation free offshore tax haven).

    May has very effectively destroyed any semblance of such confidence.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    Roger said:

    For those off to work who don't have time to listen and want a quick precis; Mrs May and the Tory Party are completely screwed......

    It's all in the polls...

    The ones that, except for Survation, unbelievably still show them ahead?

    To misquote F E Smith, it would be possible to say without fear of contradiction to say that the government is composed of the stupidest people in England, had we not frequent occasion to look at their Labour counterparts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest.
    She drew them because she identified what had motivated LEAVE voters to the horror of their bien pensant betters.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html

    Yes, she chose to completely ignore the people who voted Remain in favour of a sub-set of those who voted Leave, so ensuring that no unifying Brexit Deal was possible. And all for a few good headlines in the right wing press.
    What motivated Remain voters was worry about the economic consequences of leaving (few had any love for the EU) - hence Chequers etc.

    What would YOU have done differently?

    Not drawn the red lines.
    Carlotta still hasn’t worked out that there are other interpretations if the Brexit vote than Theresa May’s.
    And May still can’t accept the fact, either.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    edited March 2019

    DavidL said:

    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:


    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
    UK agriculture will be unaffected if (a) we grant work permits for temporary workers, (b) we agree tariffs at nil and (c)maintain regulatory equivalence until a trade deal is agreed. All of that seems extremely likely to me.

    You are proposing the EU breaks international law to help the UK. Why would it do that? How could it do that?

    What law? The WTO as an organisation is there to facilitate free trade. It sets minimum criteria in its absence but the idea that they are going to seek to stop tariff free trade when both parties want it and have a temporary deal (which is very likely to become permanent) is really a fantasy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    I wonder whether we'll see MV3 now. Even May can see she'll be defeated again, and will be forced to climb down, and another big defeat does her no favours. She will be forced to eat humble pie and would be better going straight for some sort of indicative vote process directly; Lidlington's previous commitment gives her cover to claim that was what she always intended to do.

    May has pretty much nailed her career to the deal and continued to do so last night. So what should really happen is that she holds MV3, it goes down by a long way (now that mostly everyone knows it's not just her deal or no deal at the end of the month), May then says ok it will need a new plan, that means a longer extension and EU parliament elections, I have to resign on principle and let Parliament get on with it.

    What WILL happen is that she'll lose MV3, the EU will go "what's your new plan" and she'll just...not answer. Probably mumble something about MV4. Then we'll largely be back to where we were a couple of days ago with nobody really knowing what the hell is happening.
    No, the PM's TV disaster and Lidlington's broken promise on the next step now gives Letwin/Cooper the extra votes they need to get over the line. The real question is whether the MPs have the political skills that the government lacks to now be able to craft a consensus out of the myriad of competing potential solutions.

    The common factor is that ANY alternative to May's deal needs time, hence barring parliamentary deadlock we will be asking for the long extension that May already knows we need but was too weak to override her cabinet objections to ask for. The EU knows this also, hence the comments from the Belgian MEP.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I wonder whether we'll see MV3 now. Even May can see she'll be defeated again, and will be forced to climb down, and another big defeat does her no favours. She will be forced to eat humble pie and would be better going straight for some sort of indicative vote process directly; Lidlington's previous commitment gives her cover to claim that was what she always intended to do.

    May has pretty much nailed her career to the deal and continued to do so last night. So what should really happen is that she holds MV3, it goes down by a long way (now that mostly everyone knows it's not just her deal or no deal at the end of the month), May then says ok it will need a new plan, that means a longer extension and EU parliament elections, I have to resign on principle and let Parliament get on with it.

    What WILL happen is that she'll lose MV3, the EU will go "what's your new plan" and she'll just...not answer. Probably mumble something about MV4. Then we'll largely be back to where we were a couple of days ago with nobody really knowing what the hell is happening.
    No, the PM's TV disaster and Lidlington's broken promise on the next step now gives Letwin/Cooper the extra votes they need to get over the line. The real question is whether the MPs have the political skills that the government lacks to now be able to craft a consensus out of the myriad of competing potential solutions.
    I can answer that now. No.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Quiet news day yesterday....and there was this.....

    https://twitter.com/davidtpegg/status/1108770497930641408
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Like our MPs SO knows what he's against (May's red lines) but its less clear what he is for, that would both respect the referendum result and try to balance the conflicting desires of Leave & Remain voters.

    I think the EU deal does that - control of our laws & immigration (Leave voters top 2 motivations), while minimising the impact the consequences of that have on the economy (Remain voters #1 motivation).

    Good morning. Sorry to have been away for so long (report season). Hope I didn't miss anything.

    The tragedy lost in all of this is that this is a hell of a good deal for the UK. Indeed, arguably although it is only a Withdrawal Agreement, once it's passed we should stop negotiating and leave it. That way we're out of CAP, CFP, FM, CJEU, EUC and the rest of the alphabet soup, but still have free trade with Europe.

    But unfortunately very few people have taken the trouble to read and understand it, so their views are shaped by politicians and journalists, most of whom are frankly pig ignorant and are merely shrieking their own prejudices rather than facts. This is especially true given that the most prominent politician outside the government is one of the most prejudiced as well as most ignorant men alive - and he cannot even make up his tiny mind whether he wants the deal, a referendum, or someone to suck his cock (bring your own microscope).

    I know it's a cliché in every generation but we are really appallingly ill-served by our politicians right now - possibly as badly as at any time since the 1820s. It's deeply frustrating.
    It would be a good deal if it confidence it in did not rely on confidence in the administration likely to be in power for the next couple of years of negotiation (a confidence required to reassure both those who fear a ‘vassal state’ status, and those who fear being turned into a regulation free offshore tax haven).

    May has very effectively destroyed any semblance of such confidence.
    But May will not be there for the next stage.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    DavidL said:

    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:

    If MV3 turns out to be as disappointing as most sequels (Godfather, Toy Story and MIB being exceptions that prove the rule) then it seems to me that the most likely outcome is that we will leave without a deal on 11th April. What I would anticipate is that the intervening period will be used to bridge the gap so far as possible between the WA and no deal with as many mini deals as possible. I also suspect, despite the ravings of the ERG, that the UK government will undertake to pay the monies it has promised to pay under the WA anyway for the very good reason that we have agreed that we owe it.

    What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?

    1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for goods entering and leaving the SM. Both sides might well turn a blind eye for a time but I don't see how we avoid this. I suspect we will in fact agree, as part of the mini deals, that tariffs are set at zero between the UK and the EU but even without that there are going to be regulatory issues.

    2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone Agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.

    3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.

    4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.

    5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.

    So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.

    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
    UK agriculture will be unaffected if (a) we grant work permits for temporary workers, (b) we agree tariffs at nil and (c)maintain regulatory equivalence until a trade deal is agreed. All of that seems extremely likely to me.
    UK farms are too small and inefficient to compete against zero tariff imports. They will be out of business as fast as you can say turkey and Christmas.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest.
    She drew them because she identified what had motivated LEAVE voters to the horror of their bien pensant betters.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html

    Yes, she chose to completely ignore the people who voted Remain in favour of a sub-set of those who voted Leave, so ensuring that no unifying Brexit Deal was possible. And all for a few good headlines in the right wing press.
    What motivated Remain voters was worry about the economic consequences of leaving (few had any love for the EU) - hence Chequers etc.

    What would YOU have done differently?

    Not drawn the red lines.
    So just gone in with a blank sheet of paper?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Roger said:

    For those off to work who don't have time to listen and want a quick precis; Mrs May and the Tory Party are completely screwed......

    It's all in the polls...

    You're right, being only 4% ahead of the shambolic incompetent shambles that is the Corbyn led Labour party shows their support is weak. If Labour got a competent or credible leader they would be in terrible trouble.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I wonder whether we'll see MV3 now. Even May can see she'll be defeated again, and will be forced to climb down, and another big defeat does her no favours. She will be forced to eat humble pie and would be better going straight for some sort of indicative vote process directly; Lidlington's previous commitment gives her cover to claim that was what she always intended to do.

    May has pretty much nailed her career to the deal and continued to do so last night. So what should really happen is that she holds MV3, it goes down by a long way (now that mostly everyone knows it's not just her deal or no deal at the end of the month), May then says ok it will need a new plan, that means a longer extension and EU parliament elections, I have to resign on principle and let Parliament get on with it.

    What WILL happen is that she'll lose MV3, the EU will go "what's your new plan" and she'll just...not answer. Probably mumble something about MV4. Then we'll largely be back to where we were a couple of days ago with nobody really knowing what the hell is happening.
    No, the PM's TV disaster and Lidlington's broken promise on the next step now gives Letwin/Cooper the extra votes they need to get over the line. The real question is whether the MPs have the political skills that the government lacks to now be able to craft a consensus out of the myriad of competing potential solutions.
    I can answer that now. No.
    Let's see. May's TV address gives them a challenge. So far they have been constrained and whipped to prevent them acting freely. The next couple of weeks will at least be more interesting than seeing the PM do and say the same thing over and over.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:


    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
    UK agriculture will be unaffected if (a) we grant work permits for temporary workers, (b) we agree tariffs at nil and (c)maintain regulatory equivalence until a trade deal is agreed. All of that seems extremely likely to me.

    You are proposing the EU breaks international law to help the UK. Why would it do that? How could it do that?

    What law? The WTO as an organisation is there to facilitate free trade. It sets minimum criteria in its absence but the idea that they are going to seek to stop tariff free trade when both parties want it and have a temporary deal (which is very likely to become permanent) is really a fantasy.

    The WTO won’t. Its members will. WTO rules are very clear on preferential/prejudicial treatment.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The EU seems to be more effective than Westminster/Whitehall.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest.
    She drew them because she identified what had motivated LEAVE voters to the horror of their bien pensant betters.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html

    Yes, she chose to completely ignore the people who voted Remain in favour of a sub-set of those who voted Leave, so ensuring that no unifying Brexit Deal was possible. And all for a few good headlines in the right wing press.
    What motivated Remain voters was worry about the economic consequences of leaving (few had any love for the EU) - hence Chequers etc.

    What would YOU have done differently?

    Not drawn the red lines.
    Carlotta still hasn’t worked out that there are other interpretations if the Brexit vote than Theresa May’s.
    And May still can’t accept the fact, either.

    I know there are.

    But the critics of the EU deal generally come up short what they would do differently and respect the result of the referendum.

    Suggestions?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    What is remarkable about the EU decision is not that it elegantly allows May one more chance (while removing the immediate No Deal blackmail threat from her armoury), subject to a tight deadline, removes the possibility of any further can kicking on her part, while still leaving options open to Parliament... it is that a group of nations with differing interests managed to formulate and agree to so elegant a solution in so short a time.

    And moreover displays a great deal of goodwill on their part.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:


    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
    UK agriculture will be unaffected if (a) we grant work permits for temporary workers, (b) we agree tariffs at nil and (c)maintain regulatory equivalence until a trade deal is agreed. All of that seems extremely likely to me.

    You are proposing the EU breaks international law to help the UK. Why would it do that? How could it do that?

    What law? The WTO as an organisation is there to facilitate free trade. It sets minimum criteria in its absence but the idea that they are going to seek to stop tariff free trade when both parties want it and have a temporary deal (which is very likely to become permanent) is really a fantasy.

    The WTO won’t. Its members will. WTO rules are very clear on preferential/prejudicial treatment.

    But if we have a deal, even a temporary one, we have a deal. It really isn't the challenge you think it is. Its not designed to be. Quite the opposite.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"

    She drew them because she prioritised positive headlines in the right wing press over the national interest.
    She drew them because she identified what had motivated LEAVE voters to the horror of their bien pensant betters.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html

    Yes, she chose to completely ignore the people who voted Remain in favour of a sub-set of those who voted Leave, so ensuring that no unifying Brexit Deal was possible. And all for a few good headlines in the right wing press.
    What motivated Remain voters was worry about the economic consequences of leaving (few had any love for the EU) - hence Chequers etc.

    What would YOU have done differently?

    Not drawn the red lines.
    Carlotta still hasn’t worked out that there are other interpretations if the Brexit vote than Theresa May’s.
    And May still can’t accept the fact, either.

    I know there are.

    But the critics of the EU deal generally come up short what they would do differently and respect the result of the referendum.

    Suggestions?
    I’ve already told you. Norway.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Ho hum another 3 weeks of these bozos faffing about
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    If MV3 turns out to be as disappointing as most sequels (Godfather, Toy Story and MIB being exceptions that prove the rule) then it seems to me that the most likely outcome is that we will leave without a deal on 11th April. What I would anticipate is that the intervening period will be used to bridge the gap so far as possible between the WA and no deal with as many mini deals as possible. I also suspect, despite the ravings of the ERG, that the UK government will undertake to pay the monies it has promised to pay under the WA anyway for the very good reason that we have agreed that we owe it.

    What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?

    1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for
    2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone has yet agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.

    3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.

    4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.

    5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.

    So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.

    My VERY confident prediction is that No Deal will be extremely chaotic - far more so than now or under any Deal scenario. The EU will take a hard line to its demands. This is not what it wants. The government, which is fragile enough already, is guaranteed to collapse.

    Fortunately I only see No Deal lasting days, not months.
    We won't get to no deal this spring. As 12 says downthread, there is a route to no deal at year end - but only on the basis that the Tories have meantime called a GE, won a big majority, and not been forced explicitly to rule out no deal in their manifesto or under pressure during the campaign. Together I would say that is a low set of probabilities.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    For those off to work who don't have time to listen and want a quick precis; Mrs May and the Tory Party are completely screwed......

    It's all in the polls...

    You're right, being only 4% ahead of the shambolic incompetent shambles that is the Corbyn led Labour party shows their support is weak. If Labour got a competent or credible leader they would be in terrible trouble.
    But Labour can't. If Corbyn goes, somebody very much worse - Long-Bailey, Macdonnell, Pidcock, Burgon - is likely to replace him.

    That's why, extraordinarily, the Tories are still value for the next election. Their next leader is (a) likely to get a honeymoon by not being May, (b) most unlikely to be completely crazy (c) will probably get a loud sigh of of relief from most of the PCP, unlike Labour where Corbyn continues to have the support of only about 25% of MPs and (d) will almost certainly call an immediate election. That's even leaving aside Labour's ongoing narrow support base which makes their vote very inefficient.

    Whether that is a good thing for anybody is another question. Expect a wipeout in 2024 if this plays out and Labour finally come to their senses. But it still seems more plausible (sorry) than the alternatives.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Such a shame May folded the cards and stubbornly refused to choose a path.

    Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.

    Gove was co-convener of the Vofe Leave campaign committee. Vote Leave’s campaign literature appeared to rule out a leaving without a deal. Accordingly any advice Gove gave, unless he was not fully behind his own campaign’s view on this, would presumably rule out the hard man no-dealer approach you have been advocating. I fail to see how any path Gove, who pointedly remains in cabinet, would significantly differ from the one taken.
    It's ridiculous to say anyone could have done better: Brexit is a mess, and would have been a mess whoever was in charge of negotiations. The sides are too far apart for any meaningful compromise to be easily reached.

    Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.

    And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.

    It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"
    Norway is a meaningful compromise, which could have been, and might just still be reached.

    It would mean pissing off most people, but to a lesser extent overall than any other likely solution.

    Norway does everything except deliver on the mandate obtained, which was an anti-immigration platform.
    Norway is damage limitation. It is better than any other form of Brexit, but it doesn't offer any advantages to anyone over the status quo. Which is why noone much has gone for it.
    Norway is not in the Common Agricultural Policy, or the Common Fisheries Policy, or Ever Closer Union.

    Given how much Leavers bitch about all three you'd think that would be big wins.
    True. Although I expect the UK version of "Norway" to include CAP and CFP dear facto, if not in name. There are too many vested interests on both sides of the Channel not to do so. Not even the EU is in Ever Closer Union anymore.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:

    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:


    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
    UK agriculture will be unaffected if (a) we grant work permits for temporary workers, (b) we agree tariffs at nil and (c)maintain regulatory equivalence until a trade deal is agreed. All of that seems extremely likely to me.
    UK farms are too small and inefficient to compete against zero tariff imports. They will be out of business as fast as you can say turkey and Christmas.
    They have survived in the EU with zero tariff imports. Gove has set out a support structure similar to what we have now initially albeit he has some better ideas going forward. These will probably have to go on the back burner to ensure regulatory equivalence to some extent.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    For those off to work who don't have time to listen and want a quick precis; Mrs May and the Tory Party are completely screwed......

    It's all in the polls...

    You're right, being only 4% ahead of the shambolic incompetent shambles that is the Corbyn led Labour party shows their support is weak. If Labour got a competent or credible leader they would be in terrible trouble.
    But Labour can't. If Corbyn goes, somebody very much worse - Long-Bailey, Macdonnell, Pidcock, Burgon - is likely to replace him.

    That's why, extraordinarily, the Tories are still value for the next election. Their next leader is (a) likely to get a honeymoon by not being May, (b) most unlikely to be completely crazy (c) will probably get a loud sigh of of relief from most of the PCP, unlike Labour where Corbyn continues to have the support of only about 25% of MPs and (d) will almost certainly call an immediate election. That's even leaving aside Labour's ongoing narrow support base which makes their vote very inefficient.

    Whether that is a good thing for anybody is another question. Expect a wipeout in 2024 if this plays out and Labour finally come to their senses. But it still seems more plausible (sorry) than the alternatives.
    And amid the noise the Tories took a council seat off Labour in Thurrock last night. Which is remarkable against the national backdrop.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Anyway off to sunny Aberdeen. Laters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B, which EU nation's interest is helped by losing free trade access to the UK with nothing to replace it?

    The EU was acting in the EU's interest.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Like our MPs SO knows what he's against (May's red lines) but its less clear what he is for, that would both respect the referendum result and try to balance the conflicting desires of Leave & Remain voters.

    I think the EU deal does that - control of our laws & immigration (Leave voters top 2 motivations), while minimising the impact the consequences of that have on the economy (Remain voters #1 motivation).

    Good morning. Sorry to have been away for so long (report season). Hope I didn't miss anything.

    The tragedy lost in all of this is that this is a hell of a good deal for the UK. Indeed, arguably although it is only a Withdrawal Agreement, once it's passed we should stop negotiating and leave it. That way we're out of CAP, CFP, FM, CJEU, EUC and the rest of the alphabet soup, but still have free trade with Europe.

    But unfortunately very few people have taken the trouble to read and understand it, so their views are shaped by politicians and journalists, most of whom are frankly pig ignorant and are merely shrieking their own prejudices rather than facts. This is especially true given that the most prominent politician outside the government is one of the most prejudiced as well as most ignorant men alive - and he cannot even make up his tiny mind whether he wants the deal, a referendum, or someone to suck his cock (bring your own microscope).

    I know it's a cliché in every generation but we are really appallingly ill-served by our politicians right now - possibly as badly as at any time since the 1820s. It's deeply frustrating.
    It would be a good deal if it confidence it in did not rely on confidence in the administration likely to be in power for the next couple of years of negotiation (a confidence required to reassure both those who fear a ‘vassal state’ status, and those who fear being turned into a regulation free offshore tax haven).

    May has very effectively destroyed any semblance of such confidence.
    But May will not be there for the next stage.
    And who will ?

    That is surely the point. The only deal which has a possibility of getting approved is one of settled status which leaves the UK free to change its mind (in either direction).
    Norway fits that bill, and the WA does not. It promises Remainers only two years’ security... and we know how the more paranoid Brexiteers fell about it.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Jonathan said:

    The EU seems to be more effective than Westminster/Whitehall.

    In fairness this isn't difficult.

    Anyway, all the statement last night will achieve is to push the Hard Brexit date back by a fortnight. Still, nothing substantial has changed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Nigelb said:



    I’ve already told you. Norway.

    And you think continued FoM respects the result of the referendum?

    Or just the bits of the result you like?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    IanB2 said:

    Let's see.

    We already have, repeatedly. Party discipline has so far broken down we have in effect a majority of independents. And we still can't come up with a solution.

    Have a good morning. Don't get too panicky about Brexit. Juncker may save us.

    What have we come to when a tax-haven running cartel-loving piss artist who was sacked when his security forces were caught rigging elections is the voice of sanity?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Streeter said:

    DavidL said:


    You overlooked the destruction of UK agriculture.
    UK agriculture will be unaffected if (a) we grant work permits for temporary workers, (b) we agree tariffs at nil and (c)maintain regulatory equivalence until a trade deal is agreed. All of that seems extremely likely to me.

    You are proposing the EU breaks international law to help the UK. Why would it do that? How could it do that?

    What law? The WTO as an organisation is there to facilitate free trade. It sets minimum criteria in its absence but the idea that they are going to seek to stop tariff free trade when both parties want it and have a temporary deal (which is very likely to become permanent) is really a fantasy.

    The WTO won’t. Its members will. WTO rules are very clear on preferential/prejudicial treatment.

    But if we have a deal, even a temporary one, we have a deal. It really isn't the challenge you think it is. Its not designed to be. Quite the opposite.

    So what you are proposing is essentially the WA without the backstop. Hmmm.

This discussion has been closed.