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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time

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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,628

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?

    b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?

    c) Again with your usual foresight you anticipate I will again exaggerate the numbers. Well as I have (to the best of my knowledge and if I have I will have been wrong) never attempted to calculate the numbers, because unlike you I actually do not have the foggiest idea what they are, I will not be doing so and so you will be wrong.

    d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.

    e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.

    I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

    I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.

    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited March 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    It's not about persuading Leavers — Remainers haven't even tried that as yet — it's about demonstrating their "superiority". You only have to look at Scott_P's posts to see how cloth-eared Remainers are.

    This is Hilary's "basket of deplorables" times about a million or so.
    The strongest group which voted Remain was upper middle class ABs, so no surprise there.

    According to Mori ABs voted 59% Remain 41% Leave compared to the country as a whole which voted 52% Leave and 48% Remain (C2s voted 62% Leave and 38% Remain and DEs 64% Leave and 36% Remain).
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    The quickest way to be ostracised from the Islington and Cotswolds dinner party set is to say you were a Leaver
    The real power in this country is exercised by billionaires meeting Tory politicians for lunch in Mayfair not by a secret cabal of Polly Toynbee, Professor Brian Cox and Richard Curtis plotting Liberal world domination over a butternut squash lasagna in a North London basement kitchen. There is some crazy cultural inferiority complex stuff going on here.
    Plenty of billionaires voted Remain, including Sir Richard Branson who is again calling for EUref2 or revocation of Article 50


    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/richard-branson-uk-dangerously-close-to-full-scale-brexit-disaster-1-4894352
    The billionaires were on both sides although the ones I've met have tended to the Leave side. The point I was making is that it's absurd to rail against the 'Liberal elite' because the Liberal left have had no political power for almost a decade and the kind of well-educated people that you seem to be targeting for your scorn are mostly just ordinary people on modest incomes who happened to do well enough at school and went to university.
    How many billionaires do you know? The AB class which was strongest for Remain includes all high income earners like ceos and stockbrokers and corporate lawyers not just graduates, ordinary people on modest incomes, even those who were graduates are more likely to be in the C1 class or even C2s than ABs.


    There were also plenty in the 'Liberal elite' in the 2010 to 2015 Coalition government, some of them are still even in May's Cabinet, Rudd, Gauke etc
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?

    b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?

    c) Again with your usual foresight you anticipate I will again exaggerate the numbers. Well as I have (to the best of my knowledge and if I have I will have been wrong) never attempted to calculate the numbers, because unlike you I actually do not have the foggiest idea what they are, I will not be doing so and so you will be wrong.

    d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.

    e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.

    I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

    I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.

    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited March 2019
    JosephG said:

    AndyJS said:

    The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.

    Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?
    According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).
    People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    nico67 said:

    JosephG said:

    AndyJS said:

    The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.

    Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?
    According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).
    People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .
    It's incredibly bad luck for remainers that the person who initiated the petition is damaged goods.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    SMukesh said:

    I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.

    I doubt it's easy to make an assessment from within the crowd, how far do you have to look to see a million people?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    SMukesh said:

    I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.

    You should ask Alastair Campbell for a job.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's a good point to hammer home, but of course just because a democracy can change its mind doesn't mean it has or should do so.
    And a democracy normally implements a decision of a democratic election first. If the people then vote for something else after the first vote has been implemented then it can of course change its mind.

    Keep voting until you deliver the result I want isn't quite the same thing!
    "And a democracy normally implements a decision of a democratic election first." Can you produce any authority or rationale for that, or are you just saying it? Of course it is boringly true in this country in that 99% of democratic decisions in this country involve appointing people to things, which is easy and unproblematic and practically self-fulfilling. But why do you say it is what a democracy "normally" does in other cases?
    Let's make it absolutely clear then. If you do not implement what the people voted for in a single issue vote then it is not democracy. It is just a smokescreen for a technocracy. And if you start down that road why should any of us abide by any 'democratic' decision in the future. Pretty soon you have slid into 'might is right'.
    You are just making up rules out of whole cloth to suit your case, and hedging them about with pompous flimflam on the lines of "Let's make it absolutely clear then" to make it look as if they are self-evident. We have no express rules for direct democracy (we should have had, before we started) and we therefore have to look to what is reasonable. It seems to me a reasonable rule that the proponents of a plan should be given a reasonable time to demonstrate that it is capable of execution. Leave have now had that. Your claim that the plan must actually be executed at no matter what cost, in a charge of the light brigade kinda way, is just risible.

    You had your chance, Gorman.
    No I actually understand the reality of the situation and care about democracy. You certainly do not in either case. You only play lip service to it when you are winning. It is those like you who hate democracy who will bring this country down.

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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2019
    nico67 said:

    JosephG said:

    AndyJS said:

    The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.

    Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?
    According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).
    People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .
    Whatever this woman may have posted three months ago as a private individual, both the revocation campaigns and people's vote campaigns, collectively , have been good-natured. The Leave campaign will always struggle to convert anger and resentment of the EU into something as civically responsible, and so far it has categorically failed to do that.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942
    IanB2 said:


    Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.

    Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.

    Another stupid analogy from you Ian.
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    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    What is wrong with no deal? The project fear v2 attached to it is no more credible that v1 was. When did we become a nation of negative whimps?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:


    "Yes, real British = British citizens registered here to vote and eligible to vote in a second referendum, as per the original vote, as opposed to EU citizens joining the march out of strong sympathy, who aren’t.

    Don’t try and insinuate something that isn’t there."

    Some EU citizens can vote though in referendums and national elections - if they are Cypriot, Maltese or Irish. As applies to Commonwealth citizens plus the Irish generally.

    Of course very few Commonwealth nations return the favour if we move there - although Brits in Ireland can vote in Dail elections.

    That’s a fair point but my point is that a good number on the march wouldn’t be eligible to vote.
    There were a lot of children, so yes. A few EU citizens, but not many. Mostly a rich tapestry of British citizens.
    A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.

    A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.

    Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.

    I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...

    c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK

    Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.
    According to French TV News over 1,000,000. Not bad. At least they're covering it. For the most part the French have more interesting things to talk about than their ridiculous neigbours across the water
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    RobD said:

    SMukesh said:

    I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.

    I doubt it's easy to make an assessment from within the crowd, how far do you have to look to see a million people?
    I am not claiming it as fact, it was just an observation. If you look at the BBC news website now, you can see the aerial shots to give an idea of the number of people at the march.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:


    "Yes, real British = British citizens registered here to vote and eligible to vote in a second referendum, as per the original vote, as opposed to EU citizens joining the march out of strong sympathy, who aren’t.

    Don’t try and insinuate something that isn’t there."

    Some EU citizens can vote though in referendums and national elections - if they are Cypriot, Maltese or Irish. As applies to Commonwealth citizens plus the Irish generally.

    Of course very few Commonwealth nations return the favour if we move there - although Brits in Ireland can vote in Dail elections.

    That’s a fair point but my point is that a good number on the march wouldn’t be eligible to vote.
    There were a lot of children, so yes. A few EU citizens, but not many. Mostly a rich tapestry of British citizens.
    A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.

    A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.

    Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.

    I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...

    c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK

    Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.
    According to French TV News over 1,000,000. Not bad. At least they're covering it. For the most part the French have more interesting things to talk about than their ridiculous neigbours across the water
    The French are simply parroting what the BBC have quoted from PV.

    There is no extra analysis or evidence there.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332

    IanB2 said:


    Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.

    Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.

    Another stupid analogy from you Ian.

    Maybe he fancies you?
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    saddo said:

    What is wrong with no deal? The project fear v2 attached to it is no more credible that v1 was. When did we become a nation of negative whimps?

    When the same people who said No Deal was Project Fear went seamlessly to saying No Deal is nothing to be feared.

    They have credibility issues.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    SMukesh said:

    RobD said:

    SMukesh said:

    I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.

    I doubt it's easy to make an assessment from within the crowd, how far do you have to look to see a million people?
    I am not claiming it as fact, it was just an observation. If you look at the BBC news website now, you can see the aerial shots to give an idea of the number of people at the march.
    I have no idea how to interpret those pictures. There are definitely a lot of people, but I wouldn't claim to be able to tell how many.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280

    IanB2 said:


    Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.

    Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.

    Another stupid analogy from you Ian.
    Yes, I agree these analogies are stupid, really.

    Nevertheless if people clearly have changed their minds, it would makes no sense to go through with the original decision regardless, particularly since it wasn't accompanied by any actual plan.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    SMukesh said:

    I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.

    Everyone was at NOTTINGHAM with Nigel, silly.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    tlg86 said:

    nico67 said:

    JosephG said:

    AndyJS said:

    The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.

    Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?
    According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).
    People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .
    It's incredibly bad luck for remainers that the person who initiated the petition is damaged goods.
    I won’t be losing any sleep . As for damaged goods that looks like Brexit at the moment. Leavers were promised two weeks in New York in a five star hotel and ended up finding the reality is a wet weekend in Skegness .
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:


    Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.

    Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.

    Another stupid analogy from you Ian.
    Yes, I agree these analogies are stupid, really.

    Nevertheless if people clearly have changed their minds, it would makes no sense to go through with the original decision regardless, particularly since it wasn't accompanied by any actual plan.
    Have people clearly changed their minds?
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.

    Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:

    "...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."

    So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.

    Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?

    b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?

    c) g.

    d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.

    e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.

    I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

    I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.

    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    saddo said:

    What is wrong with no deal? The project fear v2 attached to it is no more credible that v1 was. When did we become a nation of negative whimps?

    No deal would be fine if we had a decade to prep for it.

    And yes, project fear v1 was ridiculous. It's done quite a bit of damage, because now a lot of people (and some of the dimmer MPs) think we can just undo 46 years of fairly hefty economic integration overnight, with no consequences.

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    PhilPhil Posts: 1,939
    Official numbers for various previous marches can be found here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list

    Police numbers for the big Stop The War march were 750k.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,628

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    .

    I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

    I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.

    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.

    You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?

    You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    IanB2 said:


    It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.

    I don't think being there is necessary. If you are caught up in the crowd how on earth can you tell how many people are in it?
  • Options
    tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratu

    c) g.

    d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.

    e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.

    I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

    I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.

    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.
    The truth is you don't know and guessing low is pointless. And making up a low number is even less credible than the news agencies quoting a million (whether they are right or wrong themselves - at least they were there!)
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,419
    I don't think being there would have been terribly helpful in this instance. Unless you were Carol Vorderman and surveying the scene from a tall building.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942
    edited March 2019


    A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.

    A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.

    Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.

    I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...

    c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK

    Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.

    Does it really matter CR?

    We know that this was a very large march with, at the very least, several hundreds of thousands of people attending to try and make their voice heard.

    We know that the marchers only represent a fraction of those who voted Remain and who still want to Remain. For every one who attended there will be at least 10 or 15 at home who agree entirely but could not make it for a myriad of personal reasons.

    We also know that Governments pay not a blind bit of notice to these things.

    They marched and made their legitimate protest and did it peacefully and with good humour. Why try and belittle them for it by arguing about numbers?

    The official numbers will emerge eventually from the London Authority and the Police as they did last time. As is the nature of these things they will probably be more than you and the detractors claim and less than the organisers claim.

    It just seems a pointless argument.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280

    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratu

    c) g.

    d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.

    e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.

    I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

    I and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.
    The truth is you don't know and guessing low is pointless. And making up a low number is even less credible than the news agencies quoting a million (whether they are right or wrong themselves - at least they were there!)
    I have no idea how many it was. But then I never claimed to have. From the newsreel and video I have seen, it looked like a lot of people. My point is simply that claiming justification for a prior prediction based on no evidence whatsoever isn't particularly convincing.
  • Options
    tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratu

    c) g.

    d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.

    e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.

    I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

    I and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.
    The truth is you don't know and guessing low is pointless. And making up a low number is even less credible than the news agencies quoting a million (whether they are right or wrong themselves - at least they were there!)
    I have no idea how many it was. But then I never claimed to have. From the newsreel and video I have seen, it looked like a lot of people. My point is simply that claiming justification for a prior prediction based on no evidence whatsoever isn't particularly convincing.
    Agreed
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:


    Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.

    Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.

    Another stupid analogy from you Ian.
    Yes, I agree these analogies are stupid, really.

    Nevertheless if people clearly have changed their minds, it would makes no sense to go through with the original decision regardless, particularly since it wasn't accompanied by any actual plan.
    Apologies I was snappy with you which I did not mean to be.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,628


    A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.

    A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.

    Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.

    I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...

    c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK

    Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.

    Does it really matter CR?

    We know that this was a very large march with, at the very least, several hundreds of thousands of people attending to try and make their voice heard.

    We know that the marchers only represent a fraction of those who voted Remain and who still want to Remain. For every one who attended there will be at least 10 or 15 at home who agree entirely but could not make it for a myriad of personal reasons.

    We also know that Governments pay not a blind bit of notice to these things.

    They marched and made their legitimate protest and did it peacefully and with good humour. Why try and belittle them for it by arguing about numbers?

    The official numbers will emerge eventually from the London Authority and the Police as they did last time. As is the nature of these things they will probably be more than you and the detractors claim and less than the organisers claim.

    It just seems a pointless argument.
    +1
  • Options
    JosephGJosephG Posts: 29
    tlg86 said:

    nico67 said:

    JosephG said:

    AndyJS said:

    The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.

    Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?
    According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).
    People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .
    It's incredibly bad luck for remainers that the person who initiated the petition is damaged goods.
    I was merely answering the question that had been asked in terms that, yes, as a matter of fact, this was the very same person. The reference to the source of the allegation was a health warning. I am not entirely sure how you somehow inferred that I was smearing the signatories of the petition with the unproven allegations against the orignator, but I am happy to clarify that I was not. Happy now?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,081
    I can't quite match the 'I can feel it in ma (no doubt boiling) watter' certainty of some, but this does look like quite a lot.

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1109528221379379202
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332


    A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.

    A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.

    Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.

    I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...

    c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK

    Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.

    Does it really matter CR?

    We know that this was a very large march with, at the very least, several hundreds of thousands of people attending to try and make their voice heard.

    We know that the marchers only represent a fraction of those who voted Remain and who still want to Remain. For every one who attended there will be at least 10 or 15 at home who agree entirely but could not make it for a myriad of personal reasons.

    We also know that Governments pay not a blind bit of notice to these things.

    They marched and made their legitimate protest and did it peacefully and with good humour. Why try and belittle them for it by arguing about numbers?

    The official numbers will emerge eventually from the London Authority and the Police as they did last time. As is the nature of these things they will probably be more than you and the detractors claim and less than the organisers claim.

    It just seems a pointless argument.
    It does, because I'm interested in truth and don't like to see propaganda go unchallenged. These numbers will be argued to be representative of the (current) will of the British people. That is not what it represents, and I will continue to say so.

    The numbers cited by the GLA and the Police last time were precisely what I was quoting - I have no interest in undercooking them - but by then the lie has travelled twice around the world.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,711
    edited March 2019

    HYUFD said:

    No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.

    Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:

    "...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."

    So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.

    Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.
    The messages from the EU are mixed here. Definites: agree May's Deal as is for a short extension, or commit to EP elections for a long extension, with the decision to be made by April 12. Or it's No Deal. They were vague about what else would be required if the UK went down the long extension route, but the UK having in that case agreed the EP elections, it seems unlikely that the EU would turn round on the 13th April and say, not good enough, No Deal it is.

    It's not clear whether the EU would put the shutters down on April 13 if the UK parliament had agreed neither the Deal nor Euro elections. My guess is that it would start the clock running for the exit for a couple of weeks longer, so the UK could pull back from the brink before it's too late. But I don't know.
  • Options
    AlanCAlanC Posts: 10
    HYUFD said:


    No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.

    The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.

    Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    .

    I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

    I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.

    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.

    You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?

    You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
    So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.

    I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280

    I can't quite match the 'I can feel it in ma (no doubt boiling) watter' certainty of some, but this does look like quite a lot.

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1109528221379379202

    That video gives as good a feel for the scale of it as any of us are likely to get.

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    JosephG said:

    tlg86 said:

    nico67 said:

    JosephG said:

    AndyJS said:

    The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.

    Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?
    According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).
    People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .
    It's incredibly bad luck for remainers that the person who initiated the petition is damaged goods.
    I was merely answering the question that had been asked in terms that, yes, as a matter of fact, this was the very same person. The reference to the source of the allegation was a health warning. I am not entirely sure how you somehow inferred that I was smearing the signatories of the petition with the unproven allegations against the orignator, but I am happy to clarify that I was not. Happy now?
    Apologies, I wasn't being particularly serious. Guido is very good at finding this sort of stuff, but in the grand scheme of things it really doesn't matter.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?

    b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?

    c) g.

    d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.

    e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.



    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.
    I knew what the political spin line was that they wanted to take. That's all

    It's not hard. Go back and read my reasoning prior to 10am this morning. It's simple, easy, mnemonic and cuts through easy on news bulletins and creates a transmittable and repeatable story with traction.

    On any other political subject other than this you'd see this, but you're too blindsided by your own interest.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,761
    kjh said:

    Omnium said:

    I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.

    Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!

    Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.

    A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.

    Makes the real British turnout even lower.
    There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.
    Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847


    A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.

    A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.

    Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.

    I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...

    c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK

    Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.

    Does it really matter CR?

    We know that this was a very large march with, at the very least, several hundreds of thousands of people attending to try and make their voice heard.

    We know that the marchers only represent a fraction of those who voted Remain and who still want to Remain. For every one who attended there will be at least 10 or 15 at home who agree entirely but could not make it for a myriad of personal reasons.

    We also know that Governments pay not a blind bit of notice to these things.

    They marched and made their legitimate protest and did it peacefully and with good humour. Why try and belittle them for it by arguing about numbers?

    The official numbers will emerge eventually from the London Authority and the Police as they did last time. As is the nature of these things they will probably be more than you and the detractors claim and less than the organisers claim.

    It just seems a pointless argument.
    It does, because I'm interested in truth and don't like to see propaganda go unchallenged. These numbers will be argued to be representative of the (current) will of the British people. That is not what it represents, and I will continue to say so.

    The numbers cited by the GLA and the Police last time were precisely what I was quoting - I have no interest in undercooking them - but by then the lie has travelled twice around the world.
    You’ve spent all day boiling your piss and boring the rest of us with your vinegar-faced rantings about crowd numbers.

    Haven’t you a hobby?
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    IanB2 said:

    I can't quite match the 'I can feel it in ma (no doubt boiling) watter' certainty of some, but this does look like quite a lot.

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1109528221379379202

    That video gives as good a feel for the scale of it as any of us are likely to get.

    That looks like a massive turnout .
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,628

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    .

    I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

    I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.

    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. So

    b) Try reading the posts before responding

    c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.

    You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?

    You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
    So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.

    I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
    I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.
  • Options
    mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    viewcode said:

    kjh said:

    Omnium said:

    I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.

    Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!

    Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.

    A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.

    Makes the real British turnout even lower.
    There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.
    Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.
    Yes but they are probably as good as C_R in estimating crowd numbers
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    Phil said:

    Official numbers for various previous marches can be found here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list

    Police numbers for the big Stop The War march were 750k.

    I forget the anti-cuts marches in 2011.

    They were big news at the time.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332

    viewcode said:

    kjh said:

    Omnium said:

    I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.

    Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!

    Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.

    A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.

    Makes the real British turnout even lower.
    There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.
    Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.
    Yes but they are probably as good as C_R in estimating crowd numbers
    My estimations are accurate and spot on, and based on official numbers.

    I note that precisely no-one has challenged my calculations downthread.

    The dog point is a silly one because PV will have been assessing headcount, to which EU non-voters and underage children contribute, but err.. animals do not.

    Unless the PV organisers truly are mad.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    I can't quite match the 'I can feel it in ma (no doubt boiling) watter' certainty of some, but this does look like quite a lot.

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1109528221379379202

    Jesus! It looks like squillions. Thank goodness! I thought the country was in the hands of bigots from Hartlepool Stoke and GRIMsby
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,628

    viewcode said:

    kjh said:

    Omnium said:

    I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.

    Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!

    Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.

    A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.

    Makes the real British turnout even lower.
    There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.
    Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.
    Yes but they are probably as good as C_R in estimating crowd numbers
    My estimations are accurate and spot on, and based on official numbers.

    I note that precisely no-one has challenged my calculations downthread.

    The dog point is a silly one because PV will have been assessing headcount, to which EU non-voters and underage children contribute, but err.. animals do not.

    Unless the PV organisers truly are mad.
    You are completely barking mad.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    .



    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a)
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.

    You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?

    You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
    So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.

    I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
    I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.
    You have patronised, condescended and insulted me. You've been conflicted between trying to take the high ground, contest the central argument, some cringeworthy attempts to use humorous irony, and to mock me and insult me. You then act surprised when I object. You've also made a rather nasty link to Plato in your last post but one, which has drastically lowered my opinion of you.

    I don't care if you reply to this so you can have the last word. Claim a little victory on that basis if you like. It obviously matters to you.

    I'm going to spend time with my baby daughter, who is far more important than you.

    Have a good evening.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,711
    edited March 2019
    It looks like a lot of people to me.

    Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering once.

    https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-the-stop-brexit-petition-reliable
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    @Casino_Royale why are you so rattled by this huge display of passion for the EU?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    kjh said:

    viewcode said:

    kjh said:

    Omnium said:

    I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.

    Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!

    Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.

    A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.

    Makes the real British turnout even lower.
    There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.
    Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.
    Yes but they are probably as good as C_R in estimating crowd numbers
    My estimations are accurate and spot on, and based on official numbers.

    I note that precisely no-one has challenged my calculations downthread.

    The dog point is a silly one because PV will have been assessing headcount, to which EU non-voters and underage children contribute, but err.. animals do not.

    Unless the PV organisers truly are mad.
    You are completely barking mad.
    Fuck off. You're a tosspot who's got nothing else but to say I'm mad and or an idiot, so morally bankrupt are you and your arguments.

    There's nothing remotely "mad" about that point, as you could see if you had even the basics of reading comprehension.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
  • Options
    mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    .



    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a)
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.

    You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?

    You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
    So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.

    I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
    I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.
    You have patronised, condescended and insulted me. You've been conflicted between trying to take the high ground, contest the central argument, some cringeworthy attempts to use humorous irony, and to mock me and insult me. You then act surprised when I object. You've also made a rather nasty link to Plato in your last post but one, which has drastically lowered my opinion of you.

    I don't care if you reply to this so you can have the last word. Claim a little victory on that basis if you like. It obviously matters to you.

    I'm going to spend time with my baby daughter, who is far more important than you.

    Have a good evening.
    Read her lots of stories, but on no account risk any numbers stuff, you'll only confuse her. Have a nice evening.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    There was even a march in the Shetlands.

    image
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    FF43 said:

    It looks like a lot of people to me.

    Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering once.

    https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-the-stop-brexit-petition-reliable

    I don't think those links support that assertion, although I believe it to be true. In the HMG blog they even say they don't bother checking accounts from the big providers (e.g., google).
  • Options
    Fair play to the Remainers, that was an impressive turnout today. I reckon Brexit might be done for.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited March 2019

    HYUFD said:

    No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.

    Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:

    "...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."

    So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.

    Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.
    The EU made clear that the EU Parliament elections will be the requirement for extension, the indicative votes Parliament holds next week will be something they can consider but will not be the requirement for further extension. So it is the EU Parliament elections and only the EU Parliament elections that is required for extension, the results of the indicative votes will be just something the EU Council will consider for the future negotiations in that extension.

    Therefore even if Parliament has not made a majority decision as to what to do next in the indicative votes provided it has voted to participate in the EU Parliament elections a further extension will be granted by the EU and we remain in the EU beyond April 12th, effectively indefinitely
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,761

    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:


    "Yes, real British = British citizens registered here to vote and eligible to vote in a second referendum, as per the original vote, as opposed to EU citizens joining the march out of strong sympathy, who aren’t.

    Don’t try and insinuate something that isn’t there."

    Some EU citizens can vote though in referendums and national elections - if they are Cypriot, Maltese or Irish. As applies to Commonwealth citizens plus the Irish generally.

    Of course very few Commonwealth nations return the favour if we move there - although Brits in Ireland can vote in Dail elections.

    That’s a fair point but my point is that a good number on the march wouldn’t be eligible to vote.
    There were a lot of children, so yes. A few EU citizens, but not many. Mostly a rich tapestry of British citizens.
    A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.

    A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.

    Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.

    I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...

    c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK

    Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.
    London Euston receives about 20 a hour
    London Waterloo receives about 40 a hour
    London Paddington receives about 20 a hour
    London Marylebone receives about 10 a hour
    London Kings Cross receives about 10 a hour
    St Pancras International receives about 25 a hour
    London Liverpool Street receives about 15 a hour
    London Fenchurch Street receives about 5 a hour
    London Charing Cross receives about 20 a hour but let's halve it in case any came from waterloo, so that's 10

    Total per hour: 155 trains.

    Say arrival over three-four hours, that'll be around 600 trains that came in from outside between 9am and noon. Round down for sensibleness gives us about 500 trains.

    I now await the objections from @Sunil_Prasannan as to any obvious mistakes I have made.

  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,628

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:



    .

    a)
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.

    You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?

    You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
    So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.

    I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
    I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.
    You have patronised, condescended and insulted me. You've been conflicted between trying to take the high ground, contest the central argument, some cringeworthy attempts to use humorous irony, and to mock me and insult me. You then act surprised when I object. You've also made a rather nasty link to Plato in your last post but one, which has drastically lowered my opinion of you.

    I don't care if you reply to this so you can have the last word. Claim a little victory on that basis if you like. It obviously matters to you.

    I'm going to spend time with my baby daughter, who is far more important than you.

    Have a good evening.
    I'm struggling to work out how your mind works. This is what I said re Plato:

    'Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over.'

    I think everyone on PB thinks that Plato's posts at the end did change significantly and in a particular way.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    CR re your post to me this morning:

    .



    I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

    As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
    a)
    I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

    Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

    I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
    You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.



    You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
    So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.

    I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
    I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.
    You have patronised, condescended and insulted me. You've been conflicted between trying to take the high ground, contest the central argument, some cringeworthy attempts to use humorous irony, and to mock me and insult me. You then act surprised when I object. You've also made a rather nasty link to Plato in your last post but one, which has drastically lowered my opinion of you.

    I don't care if you reply to this so you can have the last word. Claim a little victory on that basis if you like. It obviously matters to you.

    I'm going to spend time with my baby daughter, who is far more important than you.

    Have a good evening.
    Read her lots of stories, but on no account risk any numbers stuff, you'll only confuse her. Have a nice evening.
    He's choosing between Snow White and the Two Dwarves, Ali Baba and the Fifteen Thieves, or the Thirty Four Dalmations.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    It looks like a lot of people to me.

    Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.

    https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/

    Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.

    In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'

    Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,079
    saddo said:

    What is wrong with no deal? The project fear v2 attached to it is no more credible that v1 was. When did we become a nation of negative whimps?

    Just because the scare stories used three years ago turned out to be bollox / lies doesn't mean there wouldn't be significant effects from No Deal.

    How significant they would be we don't know and their size and duration would depend greatly on how quickly the government was able to agree multiple mini-deals sector by sector.

    Personally I don't see the potential damage as a price worth paying for choosing No Deal over a Deal.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited March 2019
    AlanC said:

    HYUFD said:


    No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.

    The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.

    Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.
    The EU made quite clear provided we commit to participate in the EU Parliament elections a lengthy extension of Article 50, probably indefinite, will be granted. The EU do not want No Deal and all the associated hassle and as long as we continue to pay the cash and stay in the institutions of the EU they are happy to park us on the sidelines and get on with other things
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Who could possibly have predicted in John Major's time that one day the country's governance would fall into the hands of the striped blazer brigade on the fruitcake wing of the Tory Party in coalition with the racists homophobes and bigots of the DUP?

    What a rich tapestry of a country we live in!

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280

    FF43 said:

    It looks like a lot of people to me.

    Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.

    https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/

    Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.

    In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'

    Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
    The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?

    The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    Roger said:

    Who could possibly have predicted in John Major's time that one day the country's governance would fall into the hands of the striped blazer brigade on the fruitcake wing of the Tory Party in coalition with the racists homophobes and bigots of the DUP?

    What a rich tapestry of a country we live in!

    It probably has a lot to do with people over the last twenty years wanting a bit less Europe, not a bit more. While successive governments dragged us further and further in without seeking the consent of the electorate. Until euroscepticsm went from a fringe cult to a mainstream belief.

    We are where we are because of the failings of our political class. Not the people who wanted to have their say.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited March 2019
    HYUFD said:

    AlanC said:

    HYUFD said:


    No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.

    The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.

    Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.
    The EU made quite clear provided we commit to participate in the EU Parliament elections a lengthy extension of Article 50, probably indefinite, will be granted. The EU do not want No Deal and all the associated hassle and as long as we continue to pay the cash and stay in the institutions of the EU they are happy to park us on the sidelines and get on with other things
    Which is why a very long extension - replacing the transition period - would actually make some sense. If we're going to elect a new batch of MEPs they may as well have their say and the UK keep its place at the table, rather than going into extended limbo as the WA envisages.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945

    Fair play to the Remainers, that was an impressive turnout today. I reckon Brexit might be done for.

    +1.

    The honest truth is that us leavers have had three years now to come up with a plan that works.

    There was something close in our grasp, but the hardliners of the ERG rejected it as not being pure enough.

    Revolutions eat their children...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlanC said:

    HYUFD said:


    No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.

    The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.

    Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.
    The EU made quite clear provided we commit to participate in the EU Parliament elections a lengthy extension of Article 50, probably indefinite, will be granted. The EU do not want No Deal and all the associated hassle and as long as we continue to pay the cash and stay in the institutions of the EU they are happy to park us on the sidelines and get on with other things
    Which is why a very long extension - replacing the transition period - would actually make some sense. If we're going to elect a new batch of MEPs they may as well have their say and the UK keep its place at the table, rather than going into extended limbo as the WA envisages.
    If we contest the European elections it would effectively be a very long, if not indefinite, stay in the EU rather than a post Brexit transition period, yes
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited March 2019
    The latest estimate appears to be two million. So we can settle on a million plus and Casino will still be happy?

    Meanwhile the petition has passed 4.6 million
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    FF43 said:

    It looks like a lot of people to me.

    Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.

    https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/

    Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.

    In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'

    Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
    Hi Peter. Excellent post yesterday about May's 'citizens of nowhere'. I was flicking through the thread last night when I came across it and was so intrigued I read through hundreds of posts trying to get to the source. I never did but I googled Theresa's speech and I think you got it spot on. She has issues....
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The petition at current rates should hit 5 million by tomorrow morning . Quite remarkable given it really only got going on Wednesday night.
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    HYUFD said:
    Just when I thought Brexit was done for, up pops that tosser to give me hope.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited March 2019

    kinabalu said:

    I reckon that the indicative votes should have been held two years ago and it should have been the general public, not the MPs, who got to vote in them.

    Results might have been messy but if there was line by line voting on "should the UK remain in the single market" the other red-line determining issues, before Article 50 was triggered then at least the politicians would have had clearer parameters mandated to them.

    Most of the public do not know what the Single Market is. Nor neither the Customs Union, the ECJ, Schengen, the CAP or the CFP.

    It is therefore unwise to allow them anywhere near a ballot box where these things are concerned.

    June 2016 and the 1000 days since shows what happens if you do.
    That is a stunningly arrogant comment. Most people don't understand economics either but we still expect them to elect politicians based on their views on economic theory. All the more extraordinary when most of those politicians also have no idea about economics.

    Democracy is not clean and straightforward. It doesn't involve highly educated and informed people sitting around in mutual contemplation of the great issues of the day, no matter how much some people might like to portray it that way.

    I find it strange you do not want people to have a direct vote on matters of such constitutional importance on the grounds of ignorance and yet are still happy to have those same ignorant people vote to elect their representatives to make laws for us.

    Something that the current situation shows they are supremely unsuited for.
    Moreover, a lot of people understand the basic ideas at play here - 20% of kids at their kids' primary school might be speaking Polish even though it was monolingual when they went there themselves; but they now have the right to go and retire in Spain or France without jumping through so many migration hoops. The business they work in can sell standardised products throughout the EU but in return it has to obey regulations crafted in Brussels not in London. If the British government (and British judges) screw them over on certain rights, they have the ability to go fight their case in a higher court - and the flip side of that is that people can vote for a government that promises it will do something, but despite its democratic mandate will find its hands tied. This stuff isn't incomprehensible and regardless of whether they'd pass a legal examination on the subject, folk generally understand there are trade-offs, the balance of which depends on the kind of country they want to live in.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    There was even a march in the Shetlands.

    image

    Great to see!
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    HYUFD said:
    Just when I thought Brexit was done for, up pops that tosser to give me hope.
    Shame , Guy V together with Tusk are two of my favourite European politcians . Not sure why you’re so worried about Brexit not happening . I’m sure it will but will take longer.


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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlanC said:

    HYUFD said:


    No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.

    The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.

    Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.
    The EU made quite clear provided we commit to participate in the EU Parliament elections a lengthy extension of Article 50, probably indefinite, will be granted. The EU do not want No Deal and all the associated hassle and as long as we continue to pay the cash and stay in the institutions of the EU they are happy to park us on the sidelines and get on with other things
    Which is why a very long extension - replacing the transition period - would actually make some sense. If we're going to elect a new batch of MEPs they may as well have their say and the UK keep its place at the table, rather than going into extended limbo as the WA envisages.
    No, it wouldn't make sense as you can't negotiate anything while still a member.
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    There was even a march in the Shetlands.

    image

    One banner I saw read 'Tewksbury for Europe' - not words you often see together. Another read 'Yorkshire Against Brexit'. I asked him if the other Yorkshire Remainer was here but apparently he couldn't make it.
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    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Just when I thought Brexit was done for, up pops that tosser to give me hope.
    Shame , Guy V together with Tusk are two of my favourite European politcians . Not sure why you’re so worried about Brexit not happening . I’m sure it will but will take longer.


    Shame for who? I'm not worried about Brexit happening or not. At the very least, Brexit coming so close to fruition has ended the careers of many, many politicians out of the current lot. Every cloud, as they say.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,081
    Har, har, 'mob rule' and 'mood of "the street"'. Dan's got an attack of the vapours. Again.

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1109495462065774592
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    Roger said:

    FF43 said:

    It looks like a lot of people to me.

    Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.

    https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/

    Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.

    In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'

    Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
    Hi Peter. Excellent post yesterday about May's 'citizens of nowhere'. I was flicking through the thread last night when I came across it and was so intrigued I read through hundreds of posts trying to get to the source. I never did but I googled Theresa's speech and I think you got it spot on. She has issues....
    Very kind, Roger. I really was unbothered by the 'citizens of nowhere' phrase until I read it in context. Don't generally get angry about things I read on line, but did about that, briefly.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334
    David doesn't take into account the continued willingness of the EU to reopen the WA and have a long delay to reconsider, if we give up the customs union red line - the Danish PM reiterated it as a Summit conclusion just two days ago. The point isn't that the CU is part of the WA but that it potentially resolves the need for a backstop (because we're permanently inside anyway).
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    It looks like a lot of people to me.

    Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.

    https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/

    Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.

    In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'

    Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
    The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?

    The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.
    I didn't hear any heckling of Tom Watson, and he was recieved well. Certainly some speakers got a more positive reception than others, but there wasn't any heckling even when Heseltine started praising Mrs Thatcher for her work on the Single Market. It was a very respectful crowd.
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    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    It looks like a lot of people to me.

    Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.

    https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/

    Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.

    In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'

    Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
    The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?

    The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.
    Can't help you with that one. Only saw Sturgeon and she went down very well.

    Yes, the Brexit thing cuts right across traditional Party and Class lines.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,612

    From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

    'Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers' - They've all defected to Labour these days.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942
    edited March 2019
    Completely OT 1

    This looks rather unpleasant. I always fancied one of these cruises but I might have second thoughts.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47680055
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    From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

    'Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers' - They've all defected to Labour these days.
    Yes, I was surprised not to see any. They usually cadge a ride on other people's campaigns.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334
    I wasn't at the march myself, as it seemed more useful to plug away in the locals where I'm standing. Anecdotally, there were an unusually large number of people saying they wouldn't vote because they were fed up with politics - this seemed to be predominantly former Tory Leavfers who felt that they'd been sold out by both sides.

    One upsetting case was a (non-voting) Jehovah's Witness in a wheelchair (late 70s, I should think) who married a Canadian last year. She's been deported because they can't find the right paperwork and the Home Office suspects the marriage is not "genuine". She's 75, and on the face of it seems unlikely to be seeking to sneak in on a fake marriage so as to...what? Local MP Jeremy Hunt had been asked to help but couldn't. The man was sad but quite resigned about it - "Unfortunately this is what governments on earth are like - it's why we need the Lord."
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    It looks like a lot of people to me.

    Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.

    https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/

    Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.

    In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'

    Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
    The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?

    The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.
    I didn't hear any heckling of Tom Watson, and he was recieved well. Certainly some speakers got a more positive reception than others, but there wasn't any heckling even when Heseltine started praising Mrs Thatcher for her work on the Single Market. It was a very respectful crowd.
    He initially got some heckling when he said he’d back the deal but then got cheered when he said on condition it went to a public vote .

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,288

    Har, har, 'mob rule' and 'mood of "the street"'. Dan's got an attack of the vapours. Again.

    Just for old time's sake:

    Leave 48%
    Remain 52%

    :innocent:
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280

    Completely OT 1

    This looks rather unpleasant. I always fancied one of these cruises but I might have second thoughts.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47680055

    My brother and I took my mother on a cruise in 2012 and we ended up in (well, on the edge of) Hurricane Sandy.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The petition isn't proving popular in Walsall North. Only 1.4% have signed it there.
This discussion has been closed.