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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It appears the cabinet has decided to take back control from T

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It appears the cabinet has decided to take back control from Theresa May but can they decide who will be the one in control?

?BREAKING: A full blown cabinet coup is under way tonight to remove Theresa May as prime minister ?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Premier.... unlike Tezza
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    Second. Stolen!
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Third like Gove
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    PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    You snooze ....you lose...
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    I reckon they decide who gets it Highlander style. There can be only one
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    If May's Deal is no longer fronted by May, will that help get May's Deal through? Asking for a friend like.....
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    How do coups against Conservative leaders work? Do the rebel cabinet ministers surround Downing Street and put Theresa May under house arrest while their colleagues take over the radio station and start playing patriotic music?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    PM Lidington has the advantage no one in the real world has a clue who he is.
    PM Gove has the disadvantage many in the real world know who he is.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    I'll believe it when I see it.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,626
    solarflare said:

    I reckon they decide who gets it Highlander style. There can be only one

    I'm perfectly happy with providing the swords and the carparks. The electric lightning may be a bit difficult, but I'll improvise.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    BETTING: May to go before Brexit - 1.38 on BFE
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    PaddyPower

    What month will Theresa May cease to be Prime Minister


    March 2019
    3/1

    April 2019
    10/3
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    You can't currently back Gove on Betfair at higher than evens!

    He's now favourite.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1109571255529889793
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Hope there is some truth to this. May is the worst, most tin eared PM I've ever known. Worst since Lord North I imagine and I wonder if that is unfair on Lord North.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564229542166528

    It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
    She can't be deposed as leader but she can be deposed as PM.
    Um, can she? She can't be forced to resign. Historically the process is:

    a) PM loses a VONC or GE.
    b) Somebody else commands the confidence of the house
    c) PM resigns
    d) That somebody else is appointed PM by HMQ

    Are we really going to put the Queen in a position where she has to appoint somebody whose ability to command the house is at the very least unproven?
    If the Cabinet tell Mrs May that she has lost their confidence and should resign I think she would. Her position would be hopeless and she has run out of road. If she resigns and the Cabinet appoint Lidington as temporary PM and recommend him to the HM, she would appoint him. He would survive a VONC. Tory MPs and DUP would not want to risk a GE until the new Tory leader was sorted out.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    FF43 said:

    How do coups against Conservative leaders work? Do the rebel cabinet ministers surround Downing Street and put Theresa May under house arrest while their colleagues take over the radio station and start playing patriotic music?

    Dunno. Doubt she'd go out in an Allende stylee.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,211
    TSE 4 PM!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    Gove. Government manages indicative votes. Gove runs with the outcome (probably soft Brexit, CU etc). Probable nine month extension. Euro elections. Referendum still possible but unlikely.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1109556433966772225
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,177
    I think the next Prime Minister will be Ben Richards

    That boy is one mean motherfucker
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1109570554024128512?s=21
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    PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Gove is odds on favourite for politician most people want to slap....
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1109556433966772225

    Well that would be a novelty! The worst crisis since 1945 and the Tories offer us a temp! If a new PM wins a vote of confidence - quite a big if I would think - then they are in the job until the Commons or the electorate decides differently. Interim PM indeed - the idea is preposterous and an insult to the electorate. If the Tories are unable to govern in the usual way then they should resign and give the opposition a chance.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    I don't see how any Tory Brexiteer would be happy with Lidington. Gove would be more palatable across the party and with the membership as well.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,626
    edmundintokyo said:

    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No

    Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.

    [if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1109572097980989440
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,801
    edited March 2019
    About fourteenth.

    Like at least one of the candidates in the Tory leadership election.

    EDIT: 24th. OK, that might be getting a bit silly.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1109572071649148928
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    IanB2 said:

    Gove. Government manages indicative votes. Gove runs with the outcome (probably soft Brexit, CU etc). Probable nine month extension. Euro elections. Referendum still possible but unlikely.

    Serves the ERG right.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    Lidlington backers - lay off some profit while you have the chance
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1109572591658958853
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1109556433966772225

    And Boris, Raab, DD and the ERG will go along with this because...???
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1109572594716626944
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    anothernick said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1109556433966772225

    Well that would be a novelty! The worst crisis since 1945 and the Tories offer us a temp! If a new PM wins a vote of confidence - quite a big if I would think - then they are in the job until the Commons or the electorate decides differently. Interim PM indeed - the idea is preposterous and an insult to the electorate. If the Tories are unable to govern in the usual way then they should resign and give the opposition a chance.
    We're in an emergency situation.

    It explains the delta between Lidington's price as next Tory leader v. next PM.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jhallwood/status/1109569812701892614
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    This rather misses the element in the room that May cannot be forced out against her will as under Tory leadership rules after the challenge last year she cannot be challenged again until December. Nor does it change the fact Parliament still needs to hold indicative votes on the way forward it wants to take on Brexit
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    Who was the last PM not to have been an election winning LOTO, nor a former holder of one of the big 3 posts.
    Ps, not a quiz question, a genuine inquiry.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    GIN1138 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1109556433966772225

    And Boris, Raab, DD and the ERG will go along with this because...???
    They don't have a choice.

    They've blown it. As I've been trying to warn for weeks.

    I think it's now this, or full revoke, which would probably involve the UK having to show a lot of europhile leg to the EU to get back in the game.

    The sands have shifted.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Of course this "quick switch" to Liddington also rely's on Theresa May playing along.

    She could just announce, tomorrow, that she's standing down as Con leader and triggering a leadership contest but will remain as PM until the leader is chosen by the Party.

    Would be absolutely nothing the Cabinet schemers could do about that...

    Maybe that's what all the meetings with Boris have been about this week?
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    At times like this I always think politics is a funny game. It’s easy to make a misjudgement and the opportunity is gone.

    Stalin’s rivals underestimated him and lost their lives for the misjudgement. He was arguably 6th in line to take over from Lenin, and managed to repress Lenin’s thoughts of him which would have meant he would not have taken over.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rise_of_Joseph_Stalin

    Just because someone says they don’t want it to start with could just be their strategy for coming in as others fall away
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    anothernick said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1109556433966772225

    Well that would be a novelty! The worst crisis since 1945 and the Tories offer us a temp! If a new PM wins a vote of confidence - quite a big if I would think - then they are in the job until the Commons or the electorate decides differently. Interim PM indeed - the idea is preposterous and an insult to the electorate. If the Tories are unable to govern in the usual way then they should resign and give the opposition a chance.
    It may require the likes of Umunna, Cable, Watson, Cooper, even Corbyn and Sturgeon to join the Cabinet and form a new government of national unity if a new interim PM like Lidington is to survive a VONC as the ERG would certainly vote against him regardless as would Labour and the SNP unless they were part of the government and closely involved in the Brexit process going forward
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    HYUFD said:

    This rather misses the element in the room that May cannot be forced out against her will as under Tory leadership rules after the challenge last year she cannot be challenged again until December. Nor does it change the fact Parliament still needs to hold indicative votes on the way forward it wants to take on Brexit

    Unless the element in the room is polonium...
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    Artist said:

    I don't see how any Tory Brexiteer would be happy with Lidington. Gove would be more palatable across the party and with the membership as well.

    Who would they prefer - Lidington or Corbyn? That would be their choice if they want to VNOC Lidington. He would only be PM for a few weeks.

    Gove will not be palatable to any of the many contenders.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,626
    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564229542166528

    It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
    She can't be deposed as leader but she can be deposed as PM.
    Um, can she? She can't be forced to resign. Historically the process is:

    a) PM loses a VONC or GE.
    b) Somebody else commands the confidence of the house
    c) PM resigns
    d) That somebody else is appointed PM by HMQ

    Are we really going to put the Queen in a position where she has to appoint somebody whose ability to command the house is at the very least unproven?
    If the Cabinet tell Mrs May that she has lost their confidence and should resign I think she would. Her position would be hopeless and she has run out of road. If she resigns and the Cabinet appoint Lidington as temporary PM and recommend him to the HM, she would appoint him. He would survive a VONC. Tory MPs and DUP would not want to risk a GE until the new Tory leader was sorted out.
    I'm not sure that's plausible. Threats don't work with her. May gets stubborn and inflexible under pressure, which is both a flaw and a strength. If threatened to resign she'll dig in her heels. If advised to resign by Philip she'll resign.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1109572143015174144

    So after an interim PM, we get a full blown leadership contest, and a GE...
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    If this is happening, its past due. May has very little support from anyone.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    PM Hague from the Lords? :D
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    viewcode said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No

    Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.

    [if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
    In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.

    I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    Barnesian said:

    Artist said:

    I don't see how any Tory Brexiteer would be happy with Lidington. Gove would be more palatable across the party and with the membership as well.

    Who would they prefer - Lidington or Corbyn? That would be their choice if they want to VNOC Lidington. He would only be PM for a few weeks.

    Gove will not be palatable to any of the many contenders.
    They might take the view that being interim reduces his chances, given that the interim has a rather invidious task ahead. And as a leading Leave campaigner Gove has more capital to spend with his own side than Lidlington.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    GIN1138 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1109556433966772225

    And Boris, Raab, DD and the ERG will go along with this because...???
    None are in the room where it happens - i.e. the Cabinet.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1109572143015174144

    So after an interim PM, we get a full blown leadership contest, and a GE...

    Not if the DUP support the new leader.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    https://twitter.com/GeorgeFreemanMP/status/1109569215248453633
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1109574345746194433
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1109574697887453184
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    Y0kel said:

    If this is happening, its past due. May has very little support from anyone.

    As Newton Dunn said earlier, not one of them has taken to the airwaves to defend her today.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564229542166528

    It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
    She can't be deposed as leader but she can be deposed as PM.
    Um, can she? She can't be forced to resign. Historically the process is:

    a) PM loses a VONC or GE.
    b) Somebody else commands the confidence of the house
    c) PM resigns
    d) That somebody else is appointed PM by HMQ

    Are we really going to put the Queen in a position where she has to appoint somebody whose ability to command the house is at the very least unproven?
    If the Cabinet tell Mrs May that she has lost their confidence and should resign I think she would. Her position would be hopeless and she has run out of road. If she resigns and the Cabinet appoint Lidington as temporary PM and recommend him to the HM, she would appoint him. He would survive a VONC. Tory MPs and DUP would not want to risk a GE until the new Tory leader was sorted out.
    I'm not sure that's plausible. Threats don't work with her. May gets stubborn and inflexible under pressure, which is both a flaw and a strength. If threatened to resign she'll dig in her heels. If advised to resign by Philip she'll resign.
    Yes, unfortunately, when she took pride in being a bloody difficult woman, it wasn't like how Thatcher was - in a good way.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,626
    dixiedean said:

    Who was the last PM not to have been an election winning LOTO, nor a former holder of one of the big 3 posts.
    Ps, not a quiz question, a genuine inquiry.

    I thought Douglas-Home, but he was Foreign Secretary first. It'll probably have to be the pre-WWII ones.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alec_Douglas-Home
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1109572071649148928

    Labour missing the Wise?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.

    The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.

    Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    viewcode said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No

    Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.

    [if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
    She wouldn’t be able to stay if there was a mass resignation. Personally I think she has had a difficult balance to strike and had done ok until recently. She has now lost control with the situation beyond her. Her inability to make a decision is now the problem. There is no longer time for delay.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,626
    RobD said:

    PM Hague from the Lords? :D

    I would genuinely like that. Which is why it won't happen.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    edited March 2019
    When was the last time a party that was ahead in the polls changed leader?

    EDIT: Of course, it was the Tories and Cameron to May.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1109574345746194433

    They will never back the Deal.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    tlg86 said:

    When was the last time a party that was ahead in the polls changed leader?

    2016 - When May succeeded Cameron.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,177
    This is why the EU gave us a 2 week extension- so that we could get a new Prime Minister
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    CommentatorCommentator Posts: 26
    edited March 2019
    dixiedean said:

    Who was the last PM not to have been an election winning LOTO, nor a former holder of one of the big 3 posts.
    Ps, not a quiz question, a genuine inquiry.

    Ramsay Macdonald as PM in 1923, but not leader of largest party?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    tlg86 said:

    When was the last time a party that was ahead in the polls changed leader?

    And ahead only because of the leader they are changing!
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    ralphmalph said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1109572143015174144

    So after an interim PM, we get a full blown leadership contest, and a GE...

    Not if the DUP support the new leader.
    They probably will on the Exit vote IF a new leader can bring the house with them. As regards the confidence & supply deal its not likely to go anywhere.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    It's really nice to get back to the betting on this site.

    Everyone is on the same side when it's about that.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1109574345746194433

    Too clever. This is coming from Cabinet, not May. And it doesnt swing the DUP.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    PM Hague from the Lords? :D

    I would genuinely like that. Which is why it won't happen.
    HM on standby to give Corbyn a life peerage.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    When was the last time a party that was ahead in the polls changed leader?

    2016 - When May succeeded Cameron.
    Yeah, just worked it out. Still, whilst most people close to politics think little of May, I think she does have respect from a decent number of people in the country. Tricky times for the Tories.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109575952667942914
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    GIN1138 said:

    The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.

    The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.

    Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.

    Erm, that happened in 2016 :p
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Who is behind this, exactly?

    In unrelated news, the Telegraph and Spectator were both bigging up Times man Gove during the week. Gove's missus put out a provocative tweet about Leavers fearing being lynched.

    But who is, or are, Shipman's sources?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,626
    Casino_Royale said:

    viewcode said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No

    Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.

    [if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
    In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.

    I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
    Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564229542166528

    It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
    She can't be deposed as leader but she can be deposed as PM.
    Um, can she? She can't be forced to resign. Historically the process is:

    a) PM loses a VONC or GE.
    b) Somebody else commands the confidence of the house
    c) PM resigns
    d) That somebody else is appointed PM by HMQ

    Are we really going to put the Queen in a position where she has to appoint somebody whose ability to command the house is at the very least unproven?
    If the Cabinet tell Mrs May that she has lost their confidence and should resign I think she would. Her position would be hopeless and she has run out of road. If she resigns and the Cabinet appoint Lidington as temporary PM and recommend him to the HM, she would appoint him. He would survive a VONC. Tory MPs and DUP would not want to risk a GE until the new Tory leader was sorted out.
    I'm not sure that's plausible. Threats don't work with her. May gets stubborn and inflexible under pressure, which is both a flaw and a strength. If threatened to resign she'll dig in her heels. If advised to resign by Philip she'll resign.
    And I doubt if the ERG/DUP would support a confidence vote in a remainer who had not been elected under the party rules.

    I think we are about to witness the long-predicted Tory implosion.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1109576244834828288
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Who is behind this, exactly?

    In unrelated news, the Telegraph and Spectator were both bigging up Times man Gove during the week. Gove's missus put out a provocative tweet about Leavers fearing being lynched.

    But who is, or are, Shipman's sources?

    Telegraph is saying and speculatively so, that it is the remainer cabinet ministers forcing this and that is why Liddington has been put forward.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564229542166528

    It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
    She can't be deposed as leader but she can be deposed as PM.
    Um, can she? She can't be forced to resign. Historically the process is:

    a) PM loses a VONC or GE.
    b) Somebody else commands the confidence of the house
    c) PM resigns
    d) That somebody else is appointed PM by HMQ

    Are we really going to put the Queen in a position where she has to appoint somebody whose ability to command the house is at the very least unproven?
    If the Cabinet tell Mrs May that she has lost their confidence and should resign I think she would. Her position would be hopeless and she has run out of road. If she resigns and the Cabinet appoint Lidington as temporary PM and recommend him to the HM, she would appoint him. He would survive a VONC. Tory MPs and DUP would not want to risk a GE until the new Tory leader was sorted out.
    I'm not sure that's plausible. Threats don't work with her. May gets stubborn and inflexible under pressure, which is both a flaw and a strength. If threatened to resign she'll dig in her heels. If advised to resign by Philip she'll resign.
    Perhaps he will advise it
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    edited March 2019
    viewcode said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    viewcode said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No

    Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.

    [if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
    In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.

    I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
    Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
    Expel every Catholic from the six counties?

    Bring back the death penalty for homosexuals in Northern Ireland?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    viewcode said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    viewcode said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No

    Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.

    [if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
    In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.

    I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
    Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
    An new election would be unlikely to leave the DUP as kingmakers again.

    So, why would they want an election?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1109576379815919616
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.

    The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.

    Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.

    Erm, that happened in 2016 :p
    Well at least in 2016 there was some sort vote of the PCP. This would simply be a few people in room deciding who should become PM of a country.

    Its really not on.
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109575952667942914

    Sounds like the best candidate is just "the concept of disappointment".
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    solarflare said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109575952667942914

    Sounds like the best candidate is just "the concept of disappointment".
    That rules me out then.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,154
    So long as it's not bloody Boris or one of the ERG mob.

    If they want an interim PM to get some goodwill and, importantly, time from Brussels while we work out what the hell we want to do, there is only one man.

    Ken Clarke.

    And, yeah, I know all the objections. But he has been a rare voice of sanity in recent weeks and has been loyal. We need someone experienced not any of the numpties and loons currently masquerading as Cabinet Ministers. And he might have a chance of getting some cross-party consensus on the way forward.

  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    viewcode said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    viewcode said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No

    Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.

    [if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
    In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.

    I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
    Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
    There seems to be this idea that the DUP is looking for a lot. It isn't. It was interested in May's deal subject to some side assurances.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Casino

    Fwiw, there were a lot of dogs there. Dogs Against Brexit seems to be a significant pressure group.

    Who said Essex girls aren't politically engaged ?!?

    I'll get my coat and banner .. :smile:
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,113
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.

    The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.

    Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.

    Erm, that happened in 2016 :p
    And 2007, 1990, 1976...the clue is in the phrase “Parliamentary Democracy”. We elect MPs who, in turn, appoint the MP. If you want a presidential system, fine, but good luck with persuading the electorate to boot out Liz.
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    CommentatorCommentator Posts: 26
    Commentator said:

    dixiedean said:

    Who was the last PM not to have been an election winning LOTO, nor a former holder of one of the big 3 posts.
    Ps, not a quiz question, a genuine inquiry.

    Ramsay Macdonald as PM in 1923, but not leader of largest party?
    And Henry Campbell-Bannerman, in 1905, as last time not to take power as result of an election, on the other criteria you set
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,626
    GIN1138 said:

    The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.

    The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.

    Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.

    Brown never won an election. John Major became PM with no election mandate. Callaghan never won an election. Douglas-Home never won an election. Eden (I think) never won an election...
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    Commentator said:

    dixiedean said:

    Who was the last PM not to have been an election winning LOTO, nor a former holder of one of the big 3 posts.
    Ps, not a quiz question, a genuine inquiry.

    Ramsay Macdonald as PM in 1923, but not leader of largest party?
    Good spot. Neither LOTO or former holder of one of the big 3 means Victorian times then, I presume?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited March 2019
    viewcode said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    viewcode said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No

    Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.

    [if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
    In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.

    I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
    Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
    Lidington would ignore the DUP and ERG, he would do a deal with Labour and the LDs and SNP to implement SM and/or CU BINO in the PD in return for their support to pass the WA after the meaningful votes and then hold a general election once the Tories have elected a new leader in the autumn. That would enable a Lidington government to survive a VONC for now even if the ERG and DUP voted against it
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    anothernick said:

    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564229542166528

    It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
    She can't be deposed as leader but she can be deposed as PM.
    Um, can she? She can't be forced to resign. Historically the process is:

    a) PM loses a VONC or GE.
    b) Somebody else commands the confidence of the house
    c) PM resigns
    d) That somebody else is appointed PM by HMQ

    Are we really going to put the Queen in a position where she has to appoint somebody whose ability to command the house is at the very least unproven?
    If the Cabinet tell Mrs May that she has lost their confidence and should resign I think she would. Her position would be hopeless and she has run out of road. If she resigns and the Cabinet appoint Lidington as temporary PM and recommend him to the HM, she would appoint him. He would survive a VONC. Tory MPs and DUP would not want to risk a GE until the new Tory leader was sorted out.
    I'm not sure that's plausible. Threats don't work with her. May gets stubborn and inflexible under pressure, which is both a flaw and a strength. If threatened to resign she'll dig in her heels. If advised to resign by Philip she'll resign.
    And I doubt if the ERG/DUP would support a confidence vote in a remainer who had not been elected under the party rules.

    I think we are about to witness the long-predicted Tory implosion.
    That would cheer me up, if my winnings on Lidington didn't materialise.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    Gove. Government manages indicative votes. Gove runs with the outcome (probably soft Brexit, CU etc). Probable nine month extension. Euro elections. Referendum still possible but unlikely.

    I genuinely think that if May goes now and we get the nine month extension Brexit will not happen.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,154
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    solarflare said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109575952667942914

    Sounds like the best candidate is just "the concept of disappointment".
    That rules me out then.
    May has to go not because there is someone more popular than her but because she has lost all trust and goodwill with the EU. And that is what we are going to need at the moment.

    Taking Back Control, I think it's called.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,626
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    PM Hague from the Lords? :D

    I would genuinely like that. Which is why it won't happen.
    HM on standby to give Corbyn a life peerage.
    The Tower of London is still (technically) a prison. She could put him there.

    No particular reason: I just think it would be funny... :)
This discussion has been closed.