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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It appears the cabinet has decided to take back control from T

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Wondering how many PMs we will have this year. Could be as many as four.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    Scott_P said:
    Unfortunately there is no such person available.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Theresa May offered a hard Brexit. The ERG refused to vote for it.

    I hold them beneath contempt.
    Was it a hard Brexit? I thought it was a bit of a compromise? Either way I agree they should have voted for it, personally I dont think the Commons should have even got to vote on it at all. But the ERG are still part of one of the two major parties, as out of touch and vain as the rest of them.
    It was. Ed Conway did an analysis on it.

    Most of our economy is services, and it got us out of all of those aspects of the single market, plus of course the customs union once the backstop arrangements had been superseded, and no free movement.
    OK, I wasn't being facetious, I didn't really look at the deal, I just thought MP's should back whatever the PM came back with as if they were crossing the t's and dotting the... lower case j's. IMO the whole thing was all about FOM anyway, but even if that hadn't been taken care of, it was better to back it, get out, then take it from there
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    HYUFD said:

    Could Lidington be the Robert Peel of his age? Avoids hard Brexit just as Peel ensured Corn Laws Repeal with the support of the opposition but against the majority of his party and just as Peelites then joined with the Whigs to form the Liberals leaving the remaining Tories to move to a protectionist ticket so many Tory Remainers could defect to TIG leaving the remaining Tories to move to a hard Brexit ticket

    Dunno. Can't see a future me drinking in the David Lidington Free House. But, strange things do keep happening.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    isam said:

    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Long time no see Isam. Welcome back!
    Thank you Geoff
    Very welcome back Sam.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    edited March 2019
    JosephG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Of course this "quick switch" to Liddington also rely's on Theresa May playing along.

    She could just announce, tomorrow, that she's standing down as Con leader and triggering a leadership contest but will remain as PM until the leader is chosen by the Party.

    Would be absolutely nothing the Cabinet schemers could do about that...

    Maybe that's what all the meetings with Boris have been about this week?

    Technically, her involvement would be required because her last act would be to advise Her Majesty to call for Mr Liddington.
    Funnily enough what GIN is saying is what the BBC's guy just said on the 1015 news - that May would resign as Tory leader whilst staying in office as PM meantime. But I reckon he was out of the loop preparing for his TV slot, missing the breaking gossip. And May as PM is the problem, anyhow.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    isam you're back! Long time, no see!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    justin124 said:

    Why not follow the RA Butler precedent from 1963 & 1956?

    The 1963 precedent of a Scottish peer becoming PM has much to commend it. Now who to choose? ....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    IanB2 said:

    FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.

    Do you think Corbyn would do a deal with Hunt?

    Because I don't.
    The deal will be done with Watson.

    Corbyn doesn't want a deal. We all know that.
    Labour's price is the CU (and some detail around rights). The LD/TIG price is Ref2. Suspect government will prefer Labour's.
    Would they really deliver it though? I mean, it's not really about the CU, right? It's about being against the government's thing without being against brexit. If PM Post-TMay goes off to Brussels and comes back with a CU plan, won't Labour just vote that down too? It's not like there won't be anything to criticize it for.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    Can we please have a proper referendum that will result in a Condorcet winner?

    It's dead simple. The ballot paper contains three questions:

    Deal or No Deal?
    Deal or Remain?
    No Deal or Remain?

    If No Deal really is the will of the people, it will win. But I suspect that almost everyone who claims "Remaining in the EU is better than this deal," would actually pick "Deal" on the old Deal vs Remain question.
  • I keep on banging on that Brexit is the glorious revolution redux.

    https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1109581840195698688

    If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
    I would agree however since he's French can he change his nationality to Norman?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732

    isam said:

    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Long time no see Isam. Welcome back!
    Thank you Geoff
    Very welcome back Sam.
    Thanks Richard
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    The Labour leadership will not work with any Tory. They will present demands and will offer no compromise from them. They will be hoping and praying for Gove or Hunt to takeover. Like most of us, they’ll have no idea who Lidington is.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Lidington means #CorbynsCustomsUnion

    Not this again.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    If we want someone to build a consensus how about Jeremy Wright? He likes building

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/09/culture-secretary-jeremy-wright-reveals-his-love-of-lego
  • What makes Lidington awesome is that he's in favour of sorting out Brexit via AV and secondly he's a Sidney Sussex old boy.

    We can all agree it is time for a PM not from the dump, the dump has ruined British politics.
  • JosephGJosephG Posts: 29
    viewcode said:

    dixiedean said:

    Who was the last PM not to have been an election winning LOTO, nor a former holder of one of the big 3 posts.
    Ps, not a quiz question, a genuine inquiry.

    I thought Douglas-Home, but he was Foreign Secretary first. It'll probably have to be the pre-WWII ones.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alec_Douglas-Home
    I can't think of one since the Great Reform Act who was not LotO (to the extent that that post existed) or holder of one of the three big posts at the time they became PM. Churchill is the only person I can think of who at the time was not in this category, but he had in previous decades been Home Sec. and Chancellor.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010
    Andrew said:

    In this time of trouble and strife, when nobody can unite the commons, I call for a Green style shared Prime Ministership between the parties.

    Come forth, PM Grayling/Williamson.

    Maybe the PM shouldn't be a member of any political party. Chuka Umunna? Sylvia Hermon? John Bercow? David Beckham?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Scott_P said:
    I reckon it's more personal than that - she won't hand over to any of her actual rivals.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    Brexit is tremendously exciting isn't it.

    It will make a good Netflix box set in years to come.
    Brexit is the only series that has jumped the shark before filming has started.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    isam you're back! Long time, no see!
    Yes! A surprise to me too.

    Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267

    I keep on banging on that Brexit is the glorious revolution redux.

    https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1109581840195698688

    If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
    Yes, we could do a lot worse!

    More seriously, this is a situation like the Tories in 1997 and Labour in 2010, when a party has hung on too long and is simply at the end of its tether. I can't see any of the candidates forming a stable government at this point.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    What makes Lidington awesome is that he's in favour of sorting out Brexit via AV and secondly he's a Sidney Sussex old boy.

    So he knows where the skeletons are buried. Or, at least, Cromwell's head.
  • Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    And welcome back isam!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.
    Yay, the man is back! Any good tips?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928

    I keep on banging on that Brexit is the glorious revolution redux.

    https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1109581840195698688

    If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
    William of Orange was only asked to take the throne because he was married to Mary II, who was daughter of James II.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    viewcode said:

    Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go
    TMay: No

    Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.

    [if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
    She wouldn’t be able to stay if there was a mass resignation. .
    Those were the old rules. Jeremy Corbyn proved that it doesn't matter.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732

    And welcome back isam!

    Cheers Nick
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    Could Lidington be the Robert Peel of his age? Avoids hard Brexit just as Peel ensured Corn Laws Repeal with the support of the opposition but against the majority of his party and just as Peelites then joined with the Whigs to form the Liberals leaving the remaining Tories to move to a protectionist ticket so many Tory Remainers could defect to TIG leaving the remaining Tories to move to a hard Brexit ticket

    Wrong historical analogy. Brexit is not the Corn Laws redux, it is the one after that: tariff reform. Theresa May is Stanley Baldwin.

    Tory Party split over tariff reform -- free trade or Imperial preference.
    Baldwin called an unnecessary election -- and lost.
    Baldwin was accused of putting party before country.
    Baldwin spent his holidays taking long walks.

    Theresa May is Stanley Baldwin.
  • Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    Thanks, but clearly that person has never watched Pulp Fiction.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I reckon it's more personal than that - she won't hand over to any of her actual rivals.
    Bizarre, but typical, that May apparently thinks it is within her power to decide who she will hand over to. But that presumably kills Lidington's chance, if he ever had one.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    It's Gove now, last matched at 3.5 and with bakc/lay of 3.7/4.9 as I type.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.
    Yay, the man is back! Any good tips?
    Thanks.

    No I'm clueless! I had £37 at 1000 on Portillo to take over from May in a Jose/Ole stylee!!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Chris said:


    Maybe the PM shouldn't be a member of any political party. Chuka Umunna? Sylvia Hermon? John Bercow? David Beckham?

    Brian Blessed. He'd yell those damn furriners into submission in no time.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.

    But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.

    Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
    I thought you were up for a CU + SM Brexit?
    It seems to me to be a bit pointless. We end up following rules without having a say in them. That’s not taking back control. In fact, it’s humiliating for a self-respecting country. It’s just a formal version of May kicking her heels in a side room while the EU decided what extension they would grant.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.

    Lovely to see you back @isam!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Is tonight PB's birthday present from the Universe? All this and @jackW and @isam back too!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098

    IanB2 said:

    FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.

    Do you think Corbyn would do a deal with Hunt?

    Because I don't.
    The deal will be done with Watson.

    Corbyn doesn't want a deal. We all know that.
    Labour's price is the CU (and some detail around rights). The LD/TIG price is Ref2. Suspect government will prefer Labour's.
    Watson would not do a deal that the majority of the PLP and party membership could not support. And their price would be a second referendum. Any deal with any opposition party will involve a second referendum. And the ERG will never agree to that.
    The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Local government electoral roll: 47,785,500 (chosen as the larger electoral roll number)
    Petition signatures: 4,727,060

    If Brexit were named Phil Woolas, we'd have a second referendum by morning.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.

    Lovely to see you back @isam!
    Lovely of you to say so!
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    isam you're back! Long time, no see!
    Yes! A surprise to me too.

    Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
    Great to see you! Hope life and work treating you well.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010
    Andrew said:

    Chris said:


    Maybe the PM shouldn't be a member of any political party. Chuka Umunna? Sylvia Hermon? John Bercow? David Beckham?

    Brian Blessed. He'd yell those damn furriners into submission in no time.

    "Quintilius Varus, WHERE ARE MY EAGLES?"
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Three candidates -- Gove, Hunt and Lidington -- with none commanding majority support. This coup is a perfect analogy for Brexit. :)

    Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2019
    Been out, much going on? innocent face.

    Edit - Oh, I see there is big breaking news....iSam is back.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    isam you're back! Long time, no see!
    Yes! A surprise to me too.

    Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
    Great to see you! Hope life and work treating you well.
    Thanks, actually I cant complain. Same back to you!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    The Labour leadership will not work with any Tory. They will present demands and will offer no compromise from them. They will be hoping and praying for Gove or Hunt to takeover. Like most of us, they’ll have no idea who Lidington is.

    Course they will compromise.

    OK what I mean is Tory capitulation and acceptance of #CorbynsCustomsUnion

    Deal signed with Donald Tusk singing Ohhhhh Jeeèrrŕemmmy Cooooorbyn
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.
    Yay, the man is back! Any good tips?
    Thanks.

    No I'm clueless! I had £37 at 1000 on Portillo to take over from May in a Jose/Ole stylee!!
    Happens to the best of us... :(
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.

    Lovely to see you back @isam!
    Lovely of you to say so!
    Greetings. Hope the betting has been kind to you....
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    IanB2 said:


    The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.


    ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.

    Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.

    Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.

    The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.


    How can anyone pass anything?
  • Been out, much going on? innocent face.

    I was at a Janazah today and there was a milk in firster there.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    Chris said:

    Andrew said:

    Chris said:


    Maybe the PM shouldn't be a member of any political party. Chuka Umunna? Sylvia Hermon? John Bercow? David Beckham?

    Brian Blessed. He'd yell those damn furriners into submission in no time.

    "Quintilius Varus, WHERE ARE MY EAGLES?"
    "SAVE THE BADGERS!"
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.

    But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.

    Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
    I thought you were up for a CU + SM Brexit?
    It seems to me to be a bit pointless. We end up following rules without having a say in them. That’s not taking back control. In fact, it’s humiliating for a self-respecting country. It’s just a formal version of May kicking her heels in a side room while the EU decided what extension they would grant.
    Well that's why I oppose the backstop, but if you're against that what are you in favour of?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.

    But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.

    Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
    I thought you were up for a CU + SM Brexit?
    It seems to me to be a bit pointless. We end up following rules without having a say in them. That’s not taking back control. In fact, it’s humiliating for a self-respecting country. It’s just a formal version of May kicking her heels in a side room while the EU decided what extension they would grant.
    So that goes on the table for the next six months, while your perfectly sensible observations gradually sink in; meanwhile the ERG burst their veins trashing the proposal as not Brexit. Then we have a vote between the new proposal and Remain. Sorted.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Can we be ruled by troika?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    edited March 2019

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.

    Lovely to see you back @isam!
    Lovely of you to say so!
    Greetings. Hope the betting has been kind to you....
    Hello, thank you... up and down, but still in the game
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Scott_P said:
    Three candidates -- Gove, Hunt and Lidington -- with none commanding majority support. This coup is a perfect analogy for Brexit. :)

    Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.

    Scott_P said:
    Three candidates -- Gove, Hunt and Lidington -- with none commanding majority support. This coup is a perfect analogy for Brexit. :)

    Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.
    'No Leader'?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
    Quite right. Would be cracking on a pro Brexit anti 2nd ref march though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Been out, much going on? innocent face.

    I was at a Janazah today and there was a milk in firster there.
    I hope they were asked to leave immediately!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited March 2019
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    isam you're back! Long time, no see!
    Yes! A surprise to me too.

    Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
    So what payback are you expecting to make for the request being fulfilled? From memory in the end the bloke (an undertaker) had to make Sonny Corleone's corpse respectable for his mamma.

    Welcome back.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.
    Yay, the man is back! Any good tips?
    Thanks.

    No I'm clueless! I had £37 at 1000 on Portillo to take over from May in a Jose/Ole stylee!!
    A 15th anniversary amnesty? Welcome back Sam!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    isam you're back! Long time, no see!
    Yes! A surprise to me too.

    Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
    Great to see you! Hope life and work treating you well.
    Thanks, actually I cant complain. Same back to you!
    Welcome back, great to see you again.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it says well done to Mike Robert TSE and others on 15 years!

    Be-leave!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Andrew said:

    IanB2 said:


    The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.


    ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.

    Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.

    Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.

    The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.


    How can anyone pass anything?
    Not really true, indicative votes will be free votes and most Labour backbenchers come from Leave seats and would happily vote for BINO, as may even the SNP given over a third of SNP voters voted Leave
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    Blame the Etonians indeed -- David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Shirley the racist is on 5 live.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it confirms that Theresa will sort it out and we will win GE2022!
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    I keep on banging on that Brexit is the glorious revolution redux.

    https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1109581840195698688

    If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
    Fair play😌

    Barnier would make a superb PM.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Andrew said:

    IanB2 said:


    The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.


    ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.

    Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.

    Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.

    The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.


    How can anyone pass anything?
    We just have to hope that somewhere between the sensible wings of the two main parties there is some sort of consensus. Politicians' reputations are being trashed and they will want to resolve this too. And whipping's effectiveness is much reduced in both main parties already.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
    Quite right. Would be cracking on a pro Brexit anti 2nd ref march though.
    Yes.

    What really surprised me was the lack of attention paid to the claim that the petition organiser had been guilty of some pretty nasty threatening comments towards Theresa May, as well as talking of modifying weapons to use etc. It was on Guido, so maybe people know it to be overstated, but in the light of the murder of Jo Cox I thought people would be appalled at such behavior rather than following it in gung ho
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    Could Lidington be the Robert Peel of his age? Avoids hard Brexit just as Peel ensured Corn Laws Repeal with the support of the opposition but against the majority of his party and just as Peelites then joined with the Whigs to form the Liberals leaving the remaining Tories to move to a protectionist ticket so many Tory Remainers could defect to TIG leaving the remaining Tories to move to a hard Brexit ticket

    Wrong historical analogy. Brexit is not the Corn Laws redux, it is the one after that: tariff reform. Theresa May is Stanley Baldwin.

    Tory Party split over tariff reform -- free trade or Imperial preference.
    Baldwin called an unnecessary election -- and lost.
    Baldwin was accused of putting party before country.
    Baldwin spent his holidays taking long walks.

    Theresa May is Stanley Baldwin.
    Baldwin won majorities in 3 general elections
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    _Anazina_ said:

    I keep on banging on that Brexit is the glorious revolution redux.

    https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1109581840195698688

    If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
    Fair play😌

    Barnier would make a superb PM.
    Agreed that's settled.

    Don't tell Shirley the racist
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2019
    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
    Quite right. Would be cracking on a pro Brexit anti 2nd ref march though.
    Yes.

    What really surprised me was the lack of attention paid to the claim that the petition organiser had been guilty of some pretty nasty threatening comments towards Theresa May, as well as talking of modifying weapons to use etc. It was on Guido, so maybe people know it to be overstated, but in the light of the murder of Jo Cox I thought people would be appalled at such behavior rather than following it in gung ho
    "Mrs Georgiadou has faced criticism over posts she allegedly made on social media, using threatening language about the prime minister. She said she had no memory of the posts."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47678275

    That's certainly one way of putting it...I have a feeling if the petition was pro-Brexit the BBC might have provided a bit more detail.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.

    But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.

    Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
    I thought you were up for a CU + SM Brexit?
    It seems to me to be a bit pointless. We end up following rules without having a say in them. That’s not taking back control. In fact, it’s humiliating for a self-respecting country. It’s just a formal version of May kicking her heels in a side room while the EU decided what extension they would grant.
    Indeed. And that’s why I challenged you on it for being pointless over the many months (up until now) that you were advocating it.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.
    Yay, the man is back! Any good tips?
    Thanks.

    No I'm clueless! I had £37 at 1000 on Portillo to take over from May in a Jose/Ole stylee!!
    I like doing that with really long-term, long-odds bets as it really messes with people to have their money tied up for years for a negligible return.
  • Torygraph suggesting some ERGers touting Nicky Morgan as a 'Unity' candidate.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    isam you're back! Long time, no see!
    Yes! A surprise to me too.

    Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
    So what payback are you expecting to make for fulfilling the request? From memory in the end the bloke (an undertaker) had to make Sonny Corleone's corpse respectable for his mamma.

    Welcome back.
    Yes, you are right... "Someday, and that day may never come..."

    I hadn't thought about it, hopefully not the same one!

    Thanks for the welcome

  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    Roger said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    Welcome back
    Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.
    Yay, the man is back! Any good tips?
    Thanks.

    No I'm clueless! I had £37 at 1000 on Portillo to take over from May in a Jose/Ole stylee!!
    A 15th anniversary amnesty? Welcome back Sam!
    So it seems, thank you.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    Torygraph suggesting some ERGers touting Nicky Morgan as a 'Unity' candidate.

    Good grief! They really have lost it, haven't they?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable

    isam you're back! Long time, no see!
    Yes! A surprise to me too.

    Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
    Great to see you! Hope life and work treating you well.
    Thanks, actually I cant complain. Same back to you!
    Welcome back, great to see you again.
    Cheers Philip, nice of you to say so
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Sheila now on 5 live. May brings stability it would be chaos if she goes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    edited March 2019

    Torygraph suggesting some ERGers touting Nicky Morgan as a 'Unity' candidate.

    Because she was their useful idiot for Malthouse.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    Yesterday's Pye. Seems appropriate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IL2XwSkFJQ
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    Andrew said:

    Chris said:


    Maybe the PM shouldn't be a member of any political party. Chuka Umunna? Sylvia Hermon? John Bercow? David Beckham?

    Brian Blessed. He'd yell those damn furriners into submission in no time.

    Though Geoffrey Cox does a good Brian Blessed impression! LOUDLY!
  • dixiedean said:

    Torygraph suggesting some ERGers touting Nicky Morgan as a 'Unity' candidate.

    Good grief! They really have lost it, haven't they?
    Honestly, I wouldn't rule out Grayling at this stage. I wouldn't rule out Uri Geller.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Torygraph suggesting some ERGers touting Nicky Morgan as a 'Unity' candidate.

    Clearly they think they have Morgan under their thumb after that awful second Malthouse Compromise. I'm sure reality will evade them again.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    Are there any good photos of posters/banner from the million people march?

    The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.

    You will need this one for the referendum threads...

    https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
    I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
    Quite right. Would be cracking on a pro Brexit anti 2nd ref march though.
    Yes.

    What really surprised me was the lack of attention paid to the claim that the petition organiser had been guilty of some pretty nasty threatening comments towards Theresa May, as well as talking of modifying weapons to use etc. It was on Guido, so maybe people know it to be overstated, but in the light of the murder of Jo Cox I thought people would be appalled at such behavior rather than following it in gung ho
    Welcome back Isam

    Where Nigel 4 England!!
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    I keep on banging on that Brexit is the glorious revolution redux.

    https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1109581840195698688

    If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
    Fair play😌

    Barnier would make a superb PM.
    Agreed that's settled.

    Don't tell Shirley the racist
    Who?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    IanB2 said:


    The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.


    ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.

    Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.

    Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.

    The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.


    How can anyone pass anything?
    Not really true, indicative votes will be free votes and most Labour backbenchers come from Leave seats and would happily vote for BINO, as may even the SNP given over a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    Their members are Remainian though. And they don't have to vote down brexit, they just have to vote down the soft brexit that all the most pro-brexit people are saying is a sell-out. Would they defy a whip to back the government? Jeremy Corbyn won't back the government, right?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    edited March 2019
    RH1992 said:

    Torygraph suggesting some ERGers touting Nicky Morgan as a 'Unity' candidate.

    Clearly they think they have Morgan under their thumb after that awful second Malthouse Compromise. I'm sure reality will evade them again.
    A leader in hock to the ERG doesn't cut the mustard. All of this is to cut them out of the process; a just reward for the role they have played creating this mess.
This discussion has been closed.