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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,757

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Pointer, disagree on both counts. I suspect tens or hundreds of thousands of signatures will be fraudulent. That doesn't mean it's invalid.

    It also doesn't mean a petition matters more than a vote.

    I suspect 5m signatures is a large enough number to influence more than a few MPs. It's now easily the largest parliament petition, I believe. Can't remember the next biggest...
    Next biggest was also Brexit related.
    At just over 4 million

    'twas the petition started by a Leaver, BEFORE the 2016 vote, calling for a second referendum, that after 2016 became suddenly popular with Remainers.
    Ahahah.

    Mind you wasn't a second referendum first suggested by several Leavers before the 2016 vote too?

    I have to admit it the whole Brexit project has been a wonderfully run exercise in self-destruction by the Brexiteers. Now they are destroying the project itself.

    Maybe Vladimir has decided it's served its purpose?
    One Mr N. Farage floated the idea on national television, as I recall.
    Well let's hope he took time off from his long-distance walk to sign it then! :lol:
    The problem I have with a second referendum is that it should have been set out prior to the previous vote. If it had I would have voted Leave not Remain, as I would have been able to review before reconfirming.
    A lot more people would have voted Leave, in round 1, if they knew that it was subject to review.

    And your evidence for that is?....
    It would be a free hit, a "send them a message" vote.
    I think you'll find that's an opinion not evidence.

    One of my colleagues confessed he had voted Leave as a protest safe in the knowledge that it wouldn't count because his constituency was overwhelmingly Remain. He was genuinely shocked and surprised when I told him his constituency was irrelevant.
    Since there was no two-stage vote, I don't see what proof I could give you.
  • Doorstep anecdata after two 3-hour stints this weekend: Brexit is really cutting through as the decisive issue in the utterly unrelated local council elections here in deepest Surrey. Every third voter spontaneously mentions it as influencing their votes, and virtually nobody is talking about local issues. I had three switchers today from the Tories purely on this issue; conversely I lost a lifelong Labour voter who will only vote UKIP/Brexit in future. Overall it's clearly hurting the Tories more, though if they make a convincing Brexit happen they might well pull these people back.

    It's a pity as local issues deserve consideration, but as things stand the locals (here, anyway) are going to be a displacement referendum.

    Not in the polls so far
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    And how does that help the decision that has to be taken by the 12th April, just 19 days away
    12th April is not a definitive cut off date like 29th March was supposed to be....
    It is without agreeing to taking part in the EU elections in May. That is the reason for the date

    I am somewhat surprised how few posters have taken on this essential part of the new date and few have even commented on how the populace would take to agreeing to and participating in the EU campaigns in just three weeks time
    Granted the EU elections are a complicating factor...
    The EU would be barmy to allow us to vote in the elections before we have resolved the next few months. There would be a massive vote for anyone but the establishment parties. Hell, I'll vote for the most batshit crazy candidate I can find. I honestly think the EU must be a bit queasy about us participating.
    And for much the same reason, they want us to leave.

    Imagine if we do remain. It will be your comment about voting for the most batshit crazy candidate, repeated, ad infinitum. If we end up remaining the UK will be a most recalcitrant member, putting hardline anti EU types into positions of power in Westminster and Brussels. Why on earth would the EU want that?
    The most recalcitrant member... with the largest popular pro-EU movement in the EU.

    Interesting times.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846



    So no answer to the valid question then.

    There is no real answer to the question, which is valid. Sure, Brexit has been utterly discredited as a project. The vote was won on a false prospectus and the margin of victory was narrow. The execution has been utterly, unbelievably, hopeless. Public opinion has almost certainly shifted against it. Proceeding with Brexit will probably destroy whichever party implements it for a generation, which is why the Tories now look so terrified. But the vote was won, and if you think that is the most important thing then the point is unanswerable. Personally I think the arguments against proceeding with Brexit now narrowly outweigh the powerful democratic case for proceeding, but I am under no illusion about how fucked we are now no matter what we do.
    The key point there I suppose is whether you believe that any form of Brexit was bound to end this way (as I know some do) or whether this is a particularly May/Corbyn fuck up (excuse my language).

    I certainly believe there are plenty of forms of Brexit which are achievable and it is only because of the idiocy of the current party leaders and hardliners on both sides that this has not already been achieved.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited March 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    As I understand it under the FTPA if there is a 2/3 majority in the HOC for an election by Tuesday then May 2 is viable but if the government loses a VONC then there are 2 weeks for an alternative to be formed before the election can be called, which means May 16 is the earliest. But I'd be interested if anyone knows different. I've got tickets for Hamilton on May 9 so I hope I'm right!
    So if Theresa announced a general election tomorrow, Parliament votes for it on Tuesday then 2nd May is still viable.

    That *could* be what's going on at Chequers... But personally I can't see the Tory Party risking Theresa with another campaign.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited March 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    And how does that help the decision that has to be taken by the 12th April, just 19 days away
    12th April is not a definitive cut off date like 29th March was supposed to be....
    It is without agreeing to taking part in the EU elections in May. That is the reason for the date

    I am somewhat surprised how few posters have taken on this essential part of the new date and few have even commented on how the populace would take to agreeing to and participating in the EU campaigns in just three weeks time
    Granted the EU elections are a complicating factor...
    The EU would be barmy to allow us to vote in the elections before we have resolved the next few months. There would be a massive vote for anyone but the establishment parties. Hell, I'll vote for the most batshit crazy candidate I can find. I honestly think the EU must be a bit queasy about us participating.
    The EU are not barmy. The ECJ would rule their May elections void if we were a member but not represented in their elections starting on the 12th April.

    UK take part or no extension whatsoever beyond 12th April
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,757

    Doorstep anecdata after two 3-hour stints this weekend: Brexit is really cutting through as the decisive issue in the utterly unrelated local council elections here in deepest Surrey. Every third voter spontaneously mentions it as influencing their votes, and virtually nobody is talking about local issues. I had three switchers today from the Tories purely on this issue; conversely I lost a lifelong Labour voter who will only vote UKIP/Brexit in future. Overall it's clearly hurting the Tories more, though if they make a convincing Brexit happen they might well pull these people back.

    It's a pity as local issues deserve consideration, but as things stand the locals (here, anyway) are going to be a displacement referendum.

    Labour did badly in Leave-voting wards on Thursday, but I expect the reverse will be true in Remain-voting wards.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Pointer, disagree on both counts. I suspect tens or hundreds of thousands of signatures will be fraudulent. That doesn't mean it's invalid.

    It also doesn't mean a petition matters more than a vote.

    I suspect 5m signatures is a large enough number to influence more than a few MPs. It's now easily the largest parliament petition, I believe. Can't remember the next biggest...
    Next biggest was also Brexit related.
    At just over 4 million

    'twas the petition started by a Leaver, BEFORE the 2016 vote, calling for a second referendum, that after 2016 became suddenly popular with Remainers.
    Ahahah.

    Mind you wasn't a second referendum first suggested by several Leavers before the 2016 vote too?

    I have to admit it the whole Brexit project has been a wonderfully run exercise in self-destruction by the Brexiteers. Now they are destroying the project itself.

    Maybe Vladimir has decided it's served its purpose?
    One Mr N. Farage floated the idea on national television, as I recall.
    Well let's hope he took time off from his long-distance walk to sign it then! :lol:
    The problem I have with a second referendum is that it should have been set out prior to the previous vote. If it had I would have voted Leave not Remain, as I would have been able to review before reconfirming.
    A lot more people would have voted Leave, in round 1, if they knew that it was subject to review.

    And your evidence for that is?....
    It would be a free hit, a "send them a message" vote.
    I think you'll find that's an opinion not evidence.

    One of my colleagues confessed he had voted Leave as a protest safe in the knowledge that it wouldn't count because his constituency was overwhelmingly Remain. He was genuinely shocked and surprised when I told him his constituency was irrelevant.
    Since there was no two-stage vote, I don't see what proof I could give you.
    That's why it's just your opinion, which you are entitled to, but which I think is wrong.

    But still, that's what PB thrives on :smile:
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    edited March 2019
    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The DUP won’t back the deal so even if May says I’ll resign it will be a struggle to get it through .

    If May says I’ll go to no deal on April 12 then the Tories will completely fall apart . If May ignores the indicative votes then that will mean more chaos .

    Even if her deal scrapes through it has to survive the amendable WAIB.

    I can’t imagine the Tories would go for a GE , far too risky .

    Every choice delivers more problems .
  • TudorRose said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    And how does that help the decision that has to be taken by the 12th April, just 19 days away
    I thought 22nd May was the deadline if a new plan emerged... and further extensions would be possible.

    Still trying to catch up so I may be wrong.
    Yes 22nd May is the main date... But even that isn't totally definitive.

    That's why everyone said on Friday night that the EU had blinked for the first time as they removed the "cliff edge" associated with A50 (something they said they'd never do)
    They have not removed the cliff edge. It happens on the 12th April unless we agree to take part in the EU elections and mandated by the HOC or TM deal passes in which case we leave on the 22nd May
    But they have moved the cliff edge, which is significant in itself.
    To a degree, but 19 days and no further is hardly significant without our involvement in the EU elections on the 12th April
  • kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    And how does that help the decision that has to be taken by the 12th April, just 19 days away
    12th April is not a definitive cut off date like 29th March was supposed to be....
    It is without agreeing to taking part in the EU elections in May. That is the reason for the date

    I am somewhat surprised how few posters have taken on this essential part of the new date and few have even commented on how the populace would take to agreeing to and participating in the EU campaigns in just three weeks time
    Granted the EU elections are a complicating factor...
    The EU would be barmy to allow us to vote in the elections before we have resolved the next few months. There would be a massive vote for anyone but the establishment parties. Hell, I'll vote for the most batshit crazy candidate I can find. I honestly think the EU must be a bit queasy about us participating.
    And for much the same reason, they want us to leave.

    Imagine if we do remain. It will be your comment about voting for the most batshit crazy candidate, repeated, ad infinitum. If we end up remaining the UK will be a most recalcitrant member, putting hardline anti EU types into positions of power in Westminster and Brussels. Why on earth would the EU want that?
    The most recalcitrant member... with the largest popular pro-EU movement in the EU.

    Interesting times.
    I just don't see that love for the EU manifesting itself around my neck of the woods. I'd suggest that the anti EU sentiment is just as large,and that's why we are where we are. Don't let yourself get too carried away.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    nico67 said:

    The DUP won’t back the deal so even if May says I’ll resign it will be a struggle to get it through .

    If May says I’ll go to no deal on April 12 then the Tories will completely fall apart . If May ignores the indicative votes then that will mean more chaos .

    Even if her deal scrapes through it has to survive the amendable WAIB.

    I can’t imagine the Tories would go for a GE , far too risky .

    Every choice delivers more problems .

    #Snookered ;)
  • GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    And how does that help the decision that has to be taken by the 12th April, just 19 days away
    I thought 22nd May was the deadline if a new plan emerged... and further extensions would be possible.

    Still trying to catch up so I may be wrong.
    No. Further extensions require our participation in the EU elections commencing th 12th April otherwise the EU elections would be void. The date was chosen by the EU for this reason. The 22nd May is the new 29th March date should TM deal pass
    Yes, well, I think it highly likely now that we will be participating in the EU elections.

    Could be interesting if the #PeoplesVote organisation flex their muscles in any UK EU elections; no party won 5 million votes in the last election.
    And how do you get that past the HOC by the 12th April
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    As I understand it under the FTPA if there is a 2/3 majority in the HOC for an election by Tuesday then May 2 is viable but if the government loses a VONC then there are 2 weeks for an alternative to be formed before the election can be called, which means May 16 is the earliest. But I'd be interested if anyone knows different. I've got tickets for Hamilton on May 9 so I hope I'm right!
    So if Theresa announced a general election tomorrow, Parliament votes for it on Tuesday then 2nd May is still viable.

    That *could* be what's going on at Chequers... But personally I can't see the Tory Party risking Theresa with another campaign.
    Yes that's my understanding too. But I agree with you, surely they cannot be mad enough to keep May in charge, unless their goal is just to run for the fire exit, and leave the Brexit issue for a probable Corbyn minority government to deal with, try to limit the margin of their defeat and regroup in opposition, hoping for a rapid return to power under a new leader untainted by the Brexit debacle, with May the scapegoat.
  • isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    I think we expected it to happen with some semblance of order and coherence, Sam.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    I think Leave voters are entirely justified in wanting to burn the place down if it doesn't happen. I still think it shouldn't happen, just.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    edited March 2019

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
  • Benpointer said:
    show previous quotes
    Yes, well, I think it highly likely now that we will be participating in the EU elections.

    Could be interesting if the #PeoplesVote organisation flex their muscles in any UK EU elections; no party won 5 million votes in the last election.


    What are the odds of the UK participating in Euro elections ? Is there a Market up for that?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    I think we expected it to happen with some semblance of order and coherence, Sam.
    Then why give a HofC that is overwhelmingly attatched to the EU in a way that the general public isnt, the final say? That is the biggest mistake in my opinion
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Doorstep anecdata after two 3-hour stints this weekend: Brexit is really cutting through as the decisive issue in the utterly unrelated local council elections here in deepest Surrey. Every third voter spontaneously mentions it as influencing their votes, and virtually nobody is talking about local issues. I had three switchers today from the Tories purely on this issue; conversely I lost a lifelong Labour voter who will only vote UKIP/Brexit in future. Overall it's clearly hurting the Tories more, though if they make a convincing Brexit happen they might well pull these people back.

    It's a pity as local issues deserve consideration, but as things stand the locals (here, anyway) are going to be a displacement referendum.

    I can see how it would move votes against the Tories in Surrey.
  • isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    I think we expected it to happen with some semblance of order and coherence, Sam.
    Absolutely. Whether you voted remain or leave, you have a right to expect the government to be competent. I believe there is a Brexit that could have worked, but neither side really wanted us to leave which hamstrung us a tad, and the current lot in charge just aren't up to the job. No matter how many times sneering comments such as thick racist xenophobe gammon get tossed about, the target of those sneers aren't in a position to do the government's job for them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    AndyJS said:
    I think that's rather touching.

    The ERG would have opposed any deal.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    AndyJS said:
    I think that's rather touching.

    The ERG would have opposed any deal.
    That is now quite clear. And Labour would have also.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    I think we expected it to happen with some semblance of order and coherence, Sam.
    Then why give a HofC that is overwhelmingly attatched to the EU in a way that the general public isnt, the final say? That is the biggest mistake in my opinion
    I didn't give anybody anything, Sam.

    My view is that Tusk just about hit the nail on the head with his 'special place in hell' comment, even if it was a tad undiplomatic.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    edited March 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    Yes it always seemed to me that even if the motivation of leave voters was closer to UKIP/ERG, part of the trade off for getting a referendum in the first place was that the power of how we left lay with the elected government. The referendum was a transfer of power to the people for one day only.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited March 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557



    So no answer to the valid question then.

    There is no real answer to the question, which is valid. Sure, Brexit has been utterly discredited as a project. The vote was won on a false prospectus and the margin of victory was narrow. The execution has been utterly, unbelievably, hopeless. Public opinion has almost certainly shifted against it. Proceeding with Brexit will probably destroy whichever party implements it for a generation, which is why the Tories now look so terrified. But the vote was won, and if you think that is the most important thing then the point is unanswerable. Personally I think the arguments against proceeding with Brexit now narrowly outweigh the powerful democratic case for proceeding, but I am under no illusion about how fucked we are now no matter what we do.
    About right - though I think a Norway style arrangement, which would disappoint both sides, would be the least effed up outcome, and provide some measure of stability.

    The WA is a recipe for another two years’ strife at an absolute minimum.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,722

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    I think we expected it to happen with some semblance of order and coherence, Sam.
    Then why give a HofC that is overwhelmingly attatched to the EU in a way that the general public isnt, the final say? That is the biggest mistake in my opinion
    I didn't give anybody anything, Sam.

    My view is that Tusk just about hit the nail on the head with his 'special place in hell' comment, even if it was a tad undiplomatic.
    I didnt say you did!

    DonTsInferno?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Nigelb said:



    So no answer to the valid question then.

    There is no real answer to the question, which is valid. Sure, Brexit has been utterly discredited as a project. The vote was won on a false prospectus and the margin of victory was narrow. The execution has been utterly, unbelievably, hopeless. Public opinion has almost certainly shifted against it. Proceeding with Brexit will probably destroy whichever party implements it for a generation, which is why the Tories now look so terrified. But the vote was won, and if you think that is the most important thing then the point is unanswerable. Personally I think the arguments against proceeding with Brexit now narrowly outweigh the powerful democratic case for proceeding, but I am under no illusion about how fucked we are now no matter what we do.
    About right - though I think a Norway style arrangement, which would disappoint both sides, would be the least effed up outcome, and provide some measure of stability.

    The WA is a recipe for another two years’ strife at an absolute minimum.

    Which leader could conceivably have had the political authority to agree that free movement would continue, and when should the 'betrayal' have happened?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Off topic, the coup seems to have been dead since lunchtime.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Nigelb said:



    So no answer to the valid question then.

    There is no real answer to the question, which is valid. Sure, Brexit has been utterly discredited as a project. The vote was won on a false prospectus and the margin of victory was narrow. The execution has been utterly, unbelievably, hopeless. Public opinion has almost certainly shifted against it. Proceeding with Brexit will probably destroy whichever party implements it for a generation, which is why the Tories now look so terrified. But the vote was won, and if you think that is the most important thing then the point is unanswerable. Personally I think the arguments against proceeding with Brexit now narrowly outweigh the powerful democratic case for proceeding, but I am under no illusion about how fucked we are now no matter what we do.
    About right - though I think a Norway style arrangement, which would disappoint both sides, would be the least effed up outcome, and provide some measure of stability.

    The WA is a recipe for another two years’ strife at an absolute minimum.

    Which leader could conceivably have had the political authority to agree that free movement would continue, and when should the 'betrayal' have happened?
    de facto we could end free movement today, its a function of the social security system
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    edited March 2019

    Nigelb said:



    So no answer to the valid question then.

    There is no real answer to the question, which is valid. Sure, Brexit has been utterly discredited as a project. The vote was won on a false prospectus and the margin of victory was narrow. The execution has been utterly, unbelievably, hopeless. Public opinion has almost certainly shifted against it. Proceeding with Brexit will probably destroy whichever party implements it for a generation, which is why the Tories now look so terrified. But the vote was won, and if you think that is the most important thing then the point is unanswerable. Personally I think the arguments against proceeding with Brexit now narrowly outweigh the powerful democratic case for proceeding, but I am under no illusion about how fucked we are now no matter what we do.
    About right - though I think a Norway style arrangement, which would disappoint both sides, would be the least effed up outcome, and provide some measure of stability.

    The WA is a recipe for another two years’ strife at an absolute minimum.

    Which leader could conceivably have had the political authority to agree that free movement would continue, and when should the 'betrayal' have happened?
    It’s a fair point; the optimal outcome is pretty unlikely.

    But there is no betrayal involved. The only mandate from the referendum is that we leave the EU.
    An outcome which gives to leave voters the bare minimum, and takes away from remain voters the bare minimum seems to me the fairest outcome.

    And Norway would set nothing in stone. Leavers or remainers would be free to advocate for moves back, or further away from the EU.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    Nigelb said:



    So no answer to the valid question then.

    There is no real answer to the question, which is valid. Sure, Brexit has been utterly discredited as a project. The vote was won on a false prospectus and the margin of victory was narrow. The execution has been utterly, unbelievably, hopeless. Public opinion has almost certainly shifted against it. Proceeding with Brexit will probably destroy whichever party implements it for a generation, which is why the Tories now look so terrified. But the vote was won, and if you think that is the most important thing then the point is unanswerable. Personally I think the arguments against proceeding with Brexit now narrowly outweigh the powerful democratic case for proceeding, but I am under no illusion about how fucked we are now no matter what we do.
    About right - though I think a Norway style arrangement, which would disappoint both sides, would be the least effed up outcome, and provide some measure of stability.

    The WA is a recipe for another two years’ strife at an absolute minimum.

    Yeah I could live with that. But my God what a pointless exercise that would make the last three years.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642

    Doorstep anecdata after two 3-hour stints this weekend: Brexit is really cutting through as the decisive issue in the utterly unrelated local council elections here in deepest Surrey. Every third voter spontaneously mentions it as influencing their votes, and virtually nobody is talking about local issues. I had three switchers today from the Tories purely on this issue; conversely I lost a lifelong Labour voter who will only vote UKIP/Brexit in future. Overall it's clearly hurting the Tories more, though if they make a convincing Brexit happen they might well pull these people back.

    It's a pity as local issues deserve consideration, but as things stand the locals (here, anyway) are going to be a displacement referendum.

    I can see how it would move votes against the Tories in Surrey.
    If you take Rabb's constituency more people have signed the revocation petition than voted either Labour or Lib Dem at the least election. It would be hard not to conclude that there are Tories who really don't like Brexit. In Scotland the Tories absolutely want to avoid a hard Brexit. Edinburgh which is the seat of Ruth Davidson is a staunch remain area.

    The country is so split now there is no sign of peace whatever happens. The ERG has only created a strong force on the other side so far. The momentum seems against them at the moment.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Wouldn’t the ERG be getting a little worried .

    The longer the impasse the better chance another vote could win a majority . They seem to be very smug and forget that they might have 80 odd numbers but it doesn’t take too many pro EU Tories to side with the opposition to deliver a softer Brexit .
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

    If ERG had suported it it would have past on first vote
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

    If ERG had suported it it would have past on first vote
    you could say that if Labour had stopped playing politcs, or Gina Miller hadnt played the MV card etc.

    they have all made their mark at screwing the thing up
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

    If ERG had suported it it would have past on first vote
    More to the point, they were fast out of the traps trashing their own side's deal the minute it was published. Which set the narrative and poisoned any chance the government might have had to sell it to leavers. And the fact the deal was being so strongly condemned by the most ardent Leave supporters gave Tory remainers a free pass.
  • IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

    If ERG had suported it it would have past on first vote
    More to the point, they were fast out of the traps trashing their own side's deal the minute it was published. Which set the narrative and poisoned any chance the government might have had to sell it to leavers. And the fact the deal was being so strongly condemned by the most ardent Leave supporters gave Tory remainers a free pass.
    Very true
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

    If ERG had suported it it would have past on first vote
    More to the point, they were fast out of the traps trashing their own side's deal the minute it was published. Which set the narrative and poisoned any chance the government might have had to sell it to leavers. And the fact the deal was being so strongly condemned by the most ardent Leave supporters gave Tory remainers a free pass.
    Wrong.

    They were trashing it before it was published.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    And how does that help the decision that has to be taken by the 12th April, just 19 days away
    12th April is not a definitive cut off date like 29th March was supposed to be....
    It is without agreeing to taking part in the EU elections in May. That is the reason for the date

    I am somewhat surprised how few posters have taken on this essential part of the new date and few have even commented on how the populace would take to agreeing to and participating in the EU campaigns in just three weeks time
    Granted the EU elections are a complicating factor...
    The EU would be barmy to allow us to vote in the elections before we have resolved the next few months. There would be a massive vote for anyone but the establishment parties. Hell, I'll vote for the most batshit crazy candidate I can find. I honestly think the EU must be a bit queasy about us participating.
    And for much the same reason, they want us to leave.

    Imagine if we do remain. It will be your comment about voting for the most batshit crazy candidate, repeated, ad infinitum. If we end up remaining the UK will be a most recalcitrant member, putting hardline anti EU types into positions of power in Westminster and Brussels. Why on earth would the EU want that?
    The most recalcitrant member... with the largest popular pro-EU movement in the EU.

    Interesting times.
    I would certainly question the second half of that sentence.

    We know that many countries in Europe are massively pro EU - and that even now the UK ranks towards the bottom of the list of pro-EU countries.

    There are 1.5 million EU citizens living in London. How many of them were on the march yesterday? How many EU citizens living in the UK will have voted in that petition? If you or I were an EU citizen living here you can bet your bottom dollar we would have voted and if we were in London we would have marched.

    That is not to deny that there is significant pro-EU support amongst the British electorate. We already know that at least 16 million people feel that way to some extent. But using either a petition or a march which are open to all as evidence of a change of opinion involving almost 34 million people is, I would suggest, tenuous in the extreme.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Nigelb said:



    So no answer to the valid question then.

    There is no real answer to the question, which is valid. Sure, Brexit has been utterly discredited as a project. The vote was won on a false prospectus and the margin of victory was narrow. The execution has been utterly, unbelievably, hopeless. Public opinion has almost certainly shifted against it. Proceeding with Brexit will probably destroy whichever party implements it for a generation, which is why the Tories now look so terrified. But the vote was won, and if you think that is the most important thing then the point is unanswerable. Personally I think the arguments against proceeding with Brexit now narrowly outweigh the powerful democratic case for proceeding, but I am under no illusion about how fucked we are now no matter what we do.
    About right - though I think a Norway style arrangement, which would disappoint both sides, would be the least effed up outcome, and provide some measure of stability.

    The WA is a recipe for another two years’ strife at an absolute minimum.

    Yeah I could live with that. But my God what a pointless exercise that would make the last three years.
    Sunk cost, and irrelevant to what happens next - other than ascribing blame to our political class.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    nico67 said:

    Wouldn’t the ERG be getting a little worried .

    The longer the impasse the better chance another vote could win a majority . They seem to be very smug and forget that they might have 80 odd numbers but it doesn’t take too many pro EU Tories to side with the opposition to deliver a softer Brexit .

    That's not how they think.

    They think this is all a plot to blackmail them and only want TM to commit to a No Deal Brexit.

    They will blame everything and everyone but themselves if they don't get it. They will destroy everything to get it. If they do get it they will blame everything and everyone but themselves for its problems.
  • RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Presume it's already been noted that the Revoke Article 50 Petition is now over the 5million mark?

    Of course there will be a few thousand fraudulent signatures on there which no doubt completely invalidates it in the eyes of some.

    Only a few thousand? You underestimate the fanaticism of some. :p
    https://twitter.com/petefrasermusic/status/1109459409246269440
    I'm not sure I follow his point. Is he suggesting that physically going to vote for something is more meaningful? If so, I agree with him :smiley:
    His point is that if between one and two million people are prepared to turn up in central London for a demo, it isn't unrealistic to think that two or three times that many are prepared to click and sign an online petition.
    If I were to guess I'd put the number of fake signatures somewhere in the hundred thousand regime, given the government themselves admit they don't even check for people using duplicate accounts from the big email providers (e.g., Microsoft, Google).
    I find the suggestion that over 6,000 have signed in Westmorland and Lonsdale beyond credible. I might be wrong but that would be half of the Lib Dem vote in a district council election and that is with Farron leafleting day in day out. And without prompting ?

    If this goes on and they get 15 million votes then they will need all the Lib Dems voters in W&L to sign. Interesingly I signed the other petition for cussedness. It was only during the process I realised it was the one I signed last year. It DID NOT reject my use of the same email address.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

    If ERG had suported it it would have past on first vote
    That's not actually true, is it?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited March 2019

    Doorstep anecdata after two 3-hour stints this weekend: Brexit is really cutting through as the decisive issue in the utterly unrelated local council elections here in deepest Surrey. Every third voter spontaneously mentions it as influencing their votes, and virtually nobody is talking about local issues. I had three switchers today from the Tories purely on this issue; conversely I lost a lifelong Labour voter who will only vote UKIP/Brexit in future. Overall it's clearly hurting the Tories more, though if they make a convincing Brexit happen they might well pull these people back.

    It's a pity as local issues deserve consideration, but as things stand the locals (here, anyway) are going to be a displacement referendum.

    Not in the polls so far
    It's quite possible - indeed likely - that the Corbyn factor doesn't apply so much in local elections, and hence voters will feel more free to vote against the Tories without the worry of the consequences. Yet fear of Corbyn still drives the national poll ratings.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    isam said:

    Reading the last thread's criticism of the appalling James O'Brien... I think he personifies everything I dislike in someone, not least his inabilty to admit when he is wrong, a trait he shares with a similarly unlikeable person with a similarly inflated opinion of himself, Owen Jones... How To Be Wrong

    https://twitter.com/rorymeakin/status/1106746250379055104

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1106850006240243714

    Welcome back
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    On the petition my guess is it will reach about 7 to 8 million. What is interesting is that the vast majority of the signatures will come from only a third of the country. More from Twickenham than all of Birmingham.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. NorthWales, the first vote was lost by about 198 votes or so. The ERG was not the difference between triumph and disaster.

    Mr. Freggles, indeed, welcome back, Mr. Isam.
  • Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Presume it's already been noted that the Revoke Article 50 Petition is now over the 5million mark?

    Of course there will be a few thousand fraudulent signatures on there which no doubt completely invalidates it in the eyes of some.

    Only a few thousand? You underestimate the fanaticism of some. :p
    https://twitter.com/petefrasermusic/status/1109459409246269440
    I'm not sure I follow his point. Is he suggesting that physically going to vote for something is more meaningful? If so, I agree with him :smiley:
    His point is that if between one and two million people are prepared to turn up in central London for a demo, it isn't unrealistic to think that two or three times that many are prepared to click and sign an online petition.
    I don't know why you or the likes of Casino on the other side get so worked up by this. You're literally jizzing yer pants every time you mention it .People I know on either side have barely mentioned it, apart from a good friend who posts pro EU stuff on Faceache a lot. If there is a second referendum, I reckon remain will edge it by not much more than leave edged it last time. The country is split down the middle, always has been, always will be.
    If people are forced into a straight choice between Revoke A50/ No Deal, Survation suggests the result would be 51/49, which I think is plausible.
    In which case leave would win comfortably as leave voters are much more difficult for pollsters to access.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

    If ERG had suported it it would have past on first vote
    More to the point, they were fast out of the traps trashing their own side's deal the minute it was published. Which set the narrative and poisoned any chance the government might have had to sell it to leavers. And the fact the deal was being so strongly condemned by the most ardent Leave supporters gave Tory remainers a free pass.
    As I remember they were trashing it before it had even been published based just on rumours of what was in it. Fecking morons.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Presume it's already been noted that the Revoke Article 50 Petition is now over the 5million mark?

    Of course there will be a few thousand fraudulent signatures on there which no doubt completely invalidates it in the eyes of some.

    Only a few thousand? You underestimate the fanaticism of some. :p
    https://twitter.com/petefrasermusic/status/1109459409246269440
    I'm not sure I follow his point. Is he suggesting that physically going to vote for something is more meaningful? If so, I agree with him :smiley:
    His point is that if between one and two million people are prepared to turn up in central London for a demo, it isn't unrealistic to think that two or three times that many are prepared to click and sign an online petition.
    If I were to guess I'd put the number of fake signatures somewhere in the hundred thousand regime, given the government themselves admit they don't even check for people using duplicate accounts from the big email providers (e.g., Microsoft, Google).
    I find the suggestion that over 6,000 have signed in Westmorland and Lonsdale beyond credible. I might be wrong but that would be half of the Lib Dem vote in a district council election and that is with Farron leafleting day in day out. And without prompting ?

    If this goes on and they get 15 million votes then they will need all the Lib Dems voters in W&L to sign. Interesingly I signed the other petition for cussedness. It was only during the process I realised it was the one I signed last year. It DID NOT reject my use of the same email address.
    It might, in time. It seems to accept all signatures right away once the verification email is confirmed, then purge suspect ones later in batches. How exactly the suspect ones are identified is the question.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

    If ERG had suported it it would have past on first vote
    More to the point, they were fast out of the traps trashing their own side's deal the minute it was published. Which set the narrative and poisoned any chance the government might have had to sell it to leavers. And the fact the deal was being so strongly condemned by the most ardent Leave supporters gave Tory remainers a free pass.
    Wrong.

    They were trashing it before it was published.
    Snap. Hadn't seen your answer CR.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    One of the great surprises to me is that people who want to Remain seem to genuinely think that those who voted to Leave are a bit out of order for expecting it to happen
    Do you support May's deal?
    All along I said that whatever deal the current PM did with the EU should be the deal we leave with, and I dont think Parliament should have had a say in it.

    So sorry, that's a yes I suppose, and I haven't really paid any attention to it
    If TM deal had passed on first vote we would now be leaving on friday and business would have been very happy, as would the pound, and most of the country

    ERG and others are the cause of this trouble and it is still very possible we 'no deal' on the 12th April and each and everyone of the 498 who triggered A50 with default no deal would be responsible
    I just dont get your ERG accusation. Of course theyre acting like prats but the whole process from start to finish has been one piece of idiocy or chicanery after the other, with all parties and players doing their damnedest to screw the others up,

    If ERG had suported it it would have past on first vote
    More to the point, they were fast out of the traps trashing their own side's deal the minute it was published. Which set the narrative and poisoned any chance the government might have had to sell it to leavers. And the fact the deal was being so strongly condemned by the most ardent Leave supporters gave Tory remainers a free pass.
    As I remember they were trashing it before it had even been published based just on rumours of what was in it. Fecking morons.
    It was a deal with the EU ergo it must be unacceptable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
  • Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Pointer, disagree on both counts. I suspect tens or hundreds of thousands of signatures will be fraudulent. That doesn't mean it's invalid.

    It also doesn't mean a petition matters more than a vote.

    I suspect 5m signatures is a large enough number to influence more than a few MPs. It's now easily the largest parliament petition, I believe. Can't remember the next biggest...
    Next biggest was also Brexit related.
    At just over 4 million

    'twas the petition started by a Leaver, BEFORE the 2016 vote, calling for a second referendum, that after 2016 became suddenly popular with Remainers.
    Ahahah.

    Mind you wasn't a second referendum first suggested by several Leavers before the 2016 vote too?

    I have to admit it the whole Brexit project has been a wonderfully run exercise in self-destruction by the Brexiteers. Now they are destroying the project itself.

    Maybe Vladimir has decided it's served its purpose?
    One Mr N. Farage floated the idea on national television, as I recall.
    Well let's hope he took time off from his long-distance walk to sign it then! :lol:
    The problem I have with a second referendum is that it should have been set out prior to the previous vote. If it had I would have voted Leave not Remain, as I would have been able to review before reconfirming.
    A lot more people would have voted Leave, in round 1, if they knew that it was subject to review.
    Remain was official Conservative policy in the Referendum, Leave is now official Conservative policy. What happens when we have this second referendum and it returns Leave with no Deal, will the MPs them pass it through parliament ???
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Off topic, the coup seems to have been dead since lunchtime.

    They must still be holed up in the post office. By now May will know who they are.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Pointer, disagree on both counts. I suspect tens or hundreds of thousands of signatures will be fraudulent. That doesn't mean it's invalid.

    It also doesn't mean a petition matters more than a vote.

    I suspect 5m signatures is a large enough number to influence more than a few MPs. It's now easily the largest parliament petition, I believe. Can't remember the next biggest...
    Next biggest was also Brexit related.
    At just over 4 million

    'twas the petition started by a Leaver, BEFORE the 2016 vote, calling for a second referendum, that after 2016 became suddenly popular with Remainers.
    Ahahah.

    Mind you wasn't a second referendum first suggested by several Leavers before the 2016 vote too?

    I have to admit it the whole Brexit project has been a wonderfully run exercise in self-destruction by the Brexiteers. Now they are destroying the project itself.

    Maybe Vladimir has decided it's served its purpose?
    One Mr N. Farage floated the idea on national television, as I recall.
    Well let's hope he took time off from his long-distance walk to sign it then! :lol:
    The problem I have with a second referendum is that it should have been set out prior to the previous vote. If it had I would have voted Leave not Remain, as I would have been able to review before reconfirming.
    A lot more people would have voted Leave, in round 1, if they knew that it was subject to review.
    Remain was official Conservative policy in the Referendum, Leave is now official Conservative policy. What happens when we have this second referendum and it returns Leave with no Deal, will the MPs them pass it through parliament ???
    No one is going to put no deal to a referendum.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    And how does that help the decision that has to be taken by the 12th April, just 19 days away
    12th April is not a definitive cut off date like 29th March was supposed to be....
    It is without agreeing to taking part in the EU elections in May. That is the reason for the date

    I am somewhat surprised how few posters have taken on this essential part of the new date and few have even commented on how the populace would take to agreeing to and participating in the EU campaigns in just three weeks time
    Granted the EU elections are a complicating factor...
    The EU would be barmy to allow us to vote in the elections before we have resolved the next few months. There would be a massive vote for anyone but the establishment parties. Hell, I'll vote for the most batshit crazy candidate I can find. I honestly think the EU must be a bit queasy about us participating.
    s. Why on earth would the EU want that?
    The most recalcitrant member... with the largest popular pro-EU movement in the EU.

    Interesting times.
    I would certainly question the second half of that sentence.

    We know that many countries in Europe are massively pro EU - and that even now the UK ranks towards the bottom of the list of pro-EU countries.

    There are 1.5 million EU citizens living in London. How many of them were on the march yesterday? How many EU citizens living in the UK will have voted in that petition? If you or I were an EU citizen living here you can bet your bottom dollar we would have voted and if we were in London we would have marched.

    That is not to deny that there is significant pro-EU support amongst the British electorate. We already know that at least 16 million people feel that way to some extent. But using either a petition or a march which are open to all as evidence of a change of opinion involving almost 34 million people is, I would suggest, tenuous in the extreme.
    I'd say about 2/3rds of the marchers yesterday (at least) were from zones 1-6
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:
    I think that's rather touching.

    The ERG would have opposed any deal.
    That is now quite clear. And Labour would have also.
    And by definition the EU are going to support a deal otherwise it's, ERM, not a deal.
  • notme2 said:

    justin124 said:

    Casino_Royale said:
    'What, like post her election in 1975?

    What you forget is that she was a skilled politician. Very skilled.

    She only lost it post GE1987. '

    I would not accept that Thatcher was a particularly effective Opposition Leader. As PM in a Hung Parliament she would not have been able to obtain concensus from other parties - bar the Unionists. Beyond that she would have faced serious dissent from the 'Wets' and Heathites within the Tory ranks.

    The last time a government fell thanks to a vote of confidence/no confidence was when Mrs Thatcher worked skilfully with other opposition parties to bring down the government.

    Blair never managed it, Corbyn hasn't, yet.
    Any Con MP who failed to support the government in a VONC would be out on their ear immediately and would never stand again as a Conservative candidate for anything. It would be swift and permanent.
    I would not be as catagorical as that if they had the support of their association.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    They are fucking stupid aren't they?

    She might be a Bot but she's absolutely right.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    Bloody tight !
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited March 2019

    This is my all time favourite picture used in thread headers.


    Mine too now!

    Great header Viewcode. Very entertaining. Hope the £500 wasn't your last.....

    OT. Strangest thing in the S of France. From Nice to the other side of Beaulieu in complete lockdown. No boats in the water and all entrances in and out of Beaulieu and Cap ferrat blocked. Gendarmes everywhere. It's like the Marie Celeste.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    May survives as expected . The gobby crew don’t want the poisoned chalice and are happy to carp off to the press but when push comes to shove they disappear .

    Mays plan now is to let MPs take control hoping they’ll terrify the ERG into caving in the following week.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Presume it's already been noted that the Revoke Article 50 Petition is now over the 5million mark?

    Of course there will be a few thousand fraudulent signatures on there which no doubt completely invalidates it in the eyes of some.

    Only a few thousand? You underestimate the fanaticism of some. :p
    https://twitter.com/petefrasermusic/status/1109459409246269440
    I'm not sure I follow his point. Is he suggesting that physically going to vote for something is more meaningful? If so, I agree with him :smiley:
    His point is that if between one and two million people are prepared to turn up in central London for a demo, it isn't unrealistic to think that two or three times that many are prepared to click and sign an online petition.
    If I were to guess I'd put the number of fake signatures somewhere in the hundred thousand regime, given the government themselves admit they don't even check for people using duplicate accounts from the big email providers (e.g., Microsoft, Google).
    I find the suggestion that over 6,000 have signed in Westmorland and Lonsdale beyond credible. I might be wrong but that would be half of the Lib Dem vote in a district council election and that is with Farron leafleting day in day out. And without prompting ?

    If this goes on and they get 15 million votes then they will need all the Lib Dems voters in W&L to sign. Interesingly I signed the other petition for cussedness. It was only during the process I realised it was the one I signed last year. It DID NOT reject my use of the same email address.
    It might, in time. It seems to accept all signatures right away once the verification email is confirmed, then purge suspect ones later in batches. How exactly the suspect ones are identified is the question.
    It would be amusing if the total number of signatures on the petition started to go down as 'the purge' takes place!

    Personally, I don't think there is much of a 'purge' beyond checking for 'bots'. The resources required would be too much.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    Bloody tight !
    BONG!

    Pardon me, got a bit excited there. :D
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    Reading the last thread's criticism of the appalling James O'Brien... I think he personifies everything I dislike in someone, not least his inabilty to admit when he is wrong, a trait he shares with a similarly unlikeable person with a similarly inflated opinion of himself, Owen Jones... How To Be Wrong

    https://twitter.com/rorymeakin/status/1106746250379055104

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1106850006240243714

    Welcome back
    Thank you :)
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited March 2019
    Which concessions do they think that the EU side will agree to. I know that Duncan-Smith and Johnson are liars and Raab is an embarrassment to the legal profession but where do they think a concession will come from. Retards R us?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I think the evidence supports that conclusion beyond reasonable doubt.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Roger said:

    This is my all time favourite picture used in thread headers.


    Mine too now!

    Great header Viewcode. Very entertaining. Hope the £500 wasn't your last.....

    OT. Strangest thing in the S of France. From Nice to the other side of Beaulieu in complete lockdown. No boats in the water and all entrances in and out of Beaulieu and Cap ferrat blocked. Gendarmes everywhere. It's like the Marie Celeste.
    Macron’s ego is on the move?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    RoyalBlue said:

    I think the evidence supports that conclusion beyond reasonable doubt.
    Why are they even allowed a vote? It really baffles me. Allowing MP's the final say makes it only a partial referendum.
  • Benpointer said:
    show previous quotes
    Yes, well, I think it highly likely now that we will be participating in the EU elections.

    Could be interesting if the #PeoplesVote organisation flex their muscles in any UK EU elections; no party won 5 million votes in the last election.


    What are the odds of the UK participating in Euro elections ? Is there a Market up for that?

    Even if they are held I'm not sure there is a People's Vote party that is eligible to stand. The Brexit Party would stand and would be likely to be very successful. The split of the pro-remain vote will cost them dearly in the De Hondt system.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Punter,

    "I think we expected it to happen with some semblance of order and coherence, Sam."

    To be fair, I didn't really expect it to happen. I know I complain about lying MPs but I didn't believe them anyway. Keir Starmer used to preface his remarks with "While I respect the referendum vote …" No, you never did and it was pointless pretending otherwise.

    Once they started demanding MPs had the final say, they meant the total say - their preferred opinion which was Remain. The same will happen with any Scottish Independence vote if they vote to leave.

    I think the predictability makes it worse They didn't even lie well.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:
    If she announced a general election tomorrow could 2nd May still be viable?
    Bloody tight !
    BONG!

    Pardon me, got a bit excited there. :D
    Dimbleby: and I can now reveal our exit poll indicates....SNP largest party
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    matt said:

    Which concessions do they think that the EU side will agree to. I know that Duncan-Smith and Johnson are liars and Raab is an embarrassment to the legal profession but where do they think a concession will come from. Retards R us?
    Indeed. It's this deal, Labour's idiotic permanent customs union or no brexit. She's offering the country the best chance of having a stable and worthwhile relationship with the EU while not being a member.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263



    If this goes on and they get 15 million votes then they will need all the Lib Dems voters in W&L to sign. Interesingly I signed the other petition for cussedness. It was only during the process I realised it was the one I signed last year. It DID NOT reject my use of the same email address.

    No, it must be a different one if it's an online Parliamentary petition. I'm responsible for a non-partisan animal welfare one at the moment (https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/243448 if you're curious!) and after 6 months it will automatically terminate. That doesn't stop the organisers of a petition starting a new and identical one if they wish, but their count is reset to 0 and it doesn't reject signatures from last time.
  • OT: Mueller findings getting delivered to Congress within the hour.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    On the petition my guess is it will reach about 7 to 8 million. What is interesting is that the vast majority of the signatures will come from only a third of the country. More from Twickenham than all of Birmingham.

    So probably economically representative if not demographically.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Fenman said:

    On the petition my guess is it will reach about 7 to 8 million. What is interesting is that the vast majority of the signatures will come from only a third of the country. More from Twickenham than all of Birmingham.

    So probably economically representative if not demographically.
    Whose bright idea was it to give the vote to the poor plebs?
  • OT: Mueller findings getting delivered to Congress within the hour.

    https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1109897977794084867
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    On topic, I feel viewcode's pain: one of the hazards of political betting.

    I had a great position on leaving the EU by 29th March, carefully built up over 18 months, all green and well into three figures, all evaporated into nothing now due to the fannying about.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    MaxPB said:

    matt said:

    Which concessions do they think that the EU side will agree to. I know that Duncan-Smith and Johnson are liars and Raab is an embarrassment to the legal profession but where do they think a concession will come from. Retards R us?
    Indeed. It's this deal, Labour's idiotic permanent customs union or no brexit. She's offering the country the best chance of having a stable and worthwhile relationship with the EU while not being a member.
    Yes the Labour unicorn . A say in trade deals when you’re not a member of the EU . This was designed to make sure they couldn’t back the deal because the Tories will never support a CU.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Evening all :)

    Well it means Shipman at least is going to die in the ditch with Theresa May. Having spilt the beans on the "coup", the plotters are falling over themselves to demonstrate their loyalty. I do wonder if May considered sacking three or four of them for disloyalty but it's well past that in terms of what might have an impact.

    So we add the Cabinet to the list of those who, when push have come to shove, have bottled it in the spurious interests of "loyalty". To be fair, changing PM now doesn't mean anything or make any difference because we are exactly where we have been since Christmas.

    Commons either passes the WA and we leave on 22/5 or we leave on 12/4 without a WA. The third option remains revocation but it seems hugely implausible ANY Conservative PM could or would go down that route. Everything else - second votes, General Elections, votes of no confidence, indicative votes are all obfuscations.

    The problem for May is there still seems no prospect of the WA clearing the Commons with the DUP and a core of the ERG and others still opposed. The Mail's usual pleading yesterday was understated almost as though they know the WA is gone. So we will have two weeks of meaningless Parliamentary theatre until the Easter Recess on April 6th and the clock will run down to a No Deal exit on 12/4.

    Interesting to read Nick P's anecdotal offerings from deepest Haslemere, Cranleigh, Farnham or wherever. All I can offer is last evening with normally apolitical friends Brexit was the only topic of conversation. Plenty of blame spread round but May at the centre of it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    OT: Mueller findings getting delivered to Congress within the hour.

    https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1109897977794084867

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    Off topic, the coup seems to have been dead since lunchtime.

    OK PM, now start firing people from the Cabinet, just for shitz'n'giggles........
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
  • DOJ have sent a 'very brief letter' to Congress.

    'It's all sweet, lads, nothing to see'.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited March 2019
    nico67 said:

    Wouldn’t the ERG be getting a little worried .

    The longer the impasse the better chance another vote could win a majority . They seem to be very smug and forget that they might have 80 odd numbers but it doesn’t take too many pro EU Tories to side with the opposition to deliver a softer Brexit .

    I confess to finding their strategy utterly baffling. I'd like to say they might know something we don't know except that they were patently outmanoeuvred by the EU last week which doesn't bode well for the next few weeks. If they are already thinking ahead to the next stage with individuals like Johnson and Raab wanting to set out their ultra credentials for the Tory leadership battle it won't do them much good if the Deal fails in the interim resulting in the extension becoming semi permanent, new EU elections, a potential 2nd ref and half the membership deserting the party. There will be nothing left to fight over.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Well it means Shipman at least is going to die in the ditch with Theresa May. Having spilt the beans on the "coup", the plotters are falling over themselves to demonstrate their loyalty. I do wonder if May considered sacking three or four of them for disloyalty but it's well past that in terms of what might have an impact.

    So we add the Cabinet to the list of those who, when push have come to shove, have bottled it in the spurious interests of "loyalty". To be fair, changing PM now doesn't mean anything or make any difference because we are exactly where we have been since Christmas.

    Commons either passes the WA and we leave on 22/5 or we leave on 12/4 without a WA. The third option remains revocation but it seems hugely implausible ANY Conservative PM could or would go down that route. Everything else - second votes, General Elections, votes of no confidence, indicative votes are all obfuscations.

    The problem for May is there still seems no prospect of the WA clearing the Commons with the DUP and a core of the ERG and others still opposed. The Mail's usual pleading yesterday was understated almost as though they know the WA is gone. So we will have two weeks of meaningless Parliamentary theatre until the Easter Recess on April 6th and the clock will run down to a No Deal exit on 12/4.

    Interesting to read Nick P's anecdotal offerings from deepest Haslemere, Cranleigh, Farnham or wherever. All I can offer is last evening with normally apolitical friends Brexit was the only topic of conversation. Plenty of blame spread round but May at the centre of it.

    As we were working through the papers for parish council elections at one table in the pub last night the next table were some visitors from London no doubt staying the weekend in the country. Don't think they had met anyone who voted Brexit before.
  • (((Rep. Nadler)))
    @RepJerryNadler

    “The Special Counsel states that ‘while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.’”

    Uh oh.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    What do PBrs make of the claim on brexitcentral that paragraph 89 of the political declaration obliges the police to arrest people deemed to have committed ‘political offences’ – a kind of crime not known in our law. Remember, the EU’s Attorney-General has said that “Criticism of the EU is akin to blasphemy.”
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    dixiedean said:

    nico67 said:

    Some deluded Leavers in the Tory party still think they can get the UK out by next Friday .

    I will very much enjoy the odious pathetic Bone not having his party on the 29th .

    Yes. Just been reading the BTL Express comments (someone has to). People are still convinced we are leaving on Friday BY LAW!!!!! Lots and lots of them...
    They are going to be disabused of that notion.
    Really? Are you absolutely sure anyone has to read the BTL Express comments? That’s a human rights violation surely? Having said that I had to stop reading Comment is Free at the Guardian because it wound me up so much.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What a marvellous resource this page is.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584
This discussion has been closed.