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  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Re : the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it r;eally is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.

    If it looks like a big number and acts like a big number then maybe it is a big number---as opposed (I understand) to the to the "anti revoke" petition.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum

    I dont want any of the 3 though

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.

    What are the annual contributions for this fictitious customs union deal ?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Is Stephen Bush right here? https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/03/theresa-may-s-threats-mps-make-no-sense-all

    "Ultimately the British constitution is a one-line document: if you have a parliamentary majority, you can do what you want. If MPs can cohere around an alternative plan they could appoint one of their number to negotiate with the EU, or even send a letter revoking Article 50 from the House of Commons rather than from the executive if they so desire."

    Yes. In 1688 they resolved the house into a committee, temporarily expelled some trouble makers, deposed the king and offered the throne to a Dutchman. I think they did all that in one sitting.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Re the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.

    This purports to know that sort of thing:

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Hover over AVERAGE: 289 PER MINUTE and it gives you hourly and daily equivalents. I think it was about 600 per minute yesterday afternoon, in which case the rate has halved. I also think it's a bit academic - it has already produced all the impact it is going to have.
    I'm not sure about that. If it defies expectations of a set limit, it may exceed its original impact.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Pretty clear government expects Letwin to pass
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    TGOHF said:

    I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum

    I dont want any of the 3 though

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.

    What are the annual contributions for this fictitious customs union deal ?
    #CorbynsCustomsUnion is defined as "No Deal which Corbyn can blame on the Tories".
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum

    I dont want any of the 3 though

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.

    What possible reason do you have for that? It’s crazy and very much against Labour policy.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
    Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million. :)
    I never said anything of the sort.

    My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.

    It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.

    It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
    I wonder where they got the idea, if what you suggest is true.

    "We sent London a million marchers..." I can picture the words painted on some form of public transport...
    Pre-planned spin. I laid that out on here before 10am on Saturday morning as well.

    The organisers are very well advised by the masters, like Alastair Campbell.
    I disagree with most of what you say, but you were right there. Having claimed 700,000 last time they simply had to claim a million whatever happened.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,018

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.

    No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
    The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.

    It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.
    I still find this the most amazing* aspect of the process: the vehemence and size of the Tory opposition to the Deal last autumn. Hedging their bets with a “it’s not great, but we’ll look at it” would let them wiggle now. But having marched their supporters up the hill, they look in the Facebook comments like traitors if they back it, or look like traitors if they risk no Brexit by continuing to vote against.

    (*Well, one of. Amid stiff competition)
    It’s odd because hitherto, and I think both Sean Fear and I said this, it was surprising how relatively straightforward a time the Government had in enabling its Brexit legislation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    edited March 2019
    Cash having a go at arguing A50 can't be postponed without a vote of parliament. Lidington promises him a letter, and says government already has consequential legislation in hand but that EU Council decision holds the field. Reminds Cash that Parliament voted for an extension. And tells Hoey that UK law has to align with EU law.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IanB2 said:

    Pretty clear government expects Letwin to pass

    Hard to see how it could not given recent events.
    IanB2 said:

    Bill Cash now trying to filibuster against Letwin.

    Figures his only move is to be obstructive rather than acutally work to convince others as to the merits of what he wants.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    IanB2 said:

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
    Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million. :)
    I never said anything of the sort.

    My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.

    It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.

    It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
    I was joking CR. That is what the smiley means.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum

    I dont want any of the 3 though

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.

    Yep that would be my position as well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.

    No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
    The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.

    It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.
    I still find this the most amazing* aspect of the process: the vehemence and size of the Tory opposition to the Deal last autumn. Hedging their bets with a “it’s not great, but we’ll look at it” would let them wiggle now. But having marched their supporters up the hill, they look in the Facebook comments like traitors if they back it, or look like traitors if they risk no Brexit by continuing to vote against.

    (*Well, one of. Amid stiff competition)
    Yes, I too was surprised. I think the government plan expected a sizable amount of internal opposition, but there was so much, so vicious, and it spiralled and just ruined any chance of anyone else being persuaded to back it.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,179
    edited March 2019
    kjohnw said:

    Surely common market 2.0 is the only way now out of the conundrum we are in . It retains the benefits of EU membership and gives back control over agriculture and fishing and keeps us out of the political union . I know we have to compromise on freedom of labour but we do retain some get out in freedom of movement as I understand it . Does it have any chance ?

    Had this been part of the thinking of the government in the aftermath of the referendum, I think it would have stood a good chance, because it would have been a moderate compromise. However, in the past two years since the "Citizen of Nowhere" speech, the derision thrown at Remainers, coupled with the growing sense that the Leave campaign was a Russian funded con trick, has galvanized opposition to any kind of Leave without a second referendum.

    Meanwhile the inflexible incompetence of Theresa May has led to a backlash against the whole idea, and not merely from people who voted Remain last time. The problem Leavers now have is that it is not just the House of Commons that opposes "Hard/Clean" Brexit: the majority of the country does too,

    So perhaps such a compromise might emerge, but I think not without another vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    edited March 2019
    Lidington telling Beckett her amendment means revocation or, only if EU agrees, a very long extension.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Re the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.

    This purports to know that sort of thing:

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Hover over AVERAGE: 289 PER MINUTE and it gives you hourly and daily equivalents. I think it was about 600 per minute yesterday afternoon, in which case the rate has halved. I also think it's a bit academic - it has already produced all the impact it is going to have.
    You'd expect it to follow a sigmoid curve - build slowly, accelerate to a very fast pace and then slow down. You could probably get a pretty good prediction of the final figure if you could track the numbers so far.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IanB2 said:


    Lidington still hoping for MV3.

    Rules him out as a sensible one then. He's living in a moment from 3 months ago then.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:


    Lidington still hoping for MV3.

    Rules him out as a sensible one then. He's living in a moment from 3 months ago then.
    He was probably saying it for form, just to keep loyal.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Is Stephen Bush right here? https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/03/theresa-may-s-threats-mps-make-no-sense-all

    "Ultimately the British constitution is a one-line document: if you have a parliamentary majority, you can do what you want. If MPs can cohere around an alternative plan they could appoint one of their number to negotiate with the EU, or even send a letter revoking Article 50 from the House of Commons rather than from the executive if they so desire."

    In shorthand probably no. What it misses out is that there is debate as to whether revocation can be done by anyone other than the PM as part of Royal Prerogative. Effectively what he is saying is they would need to choose a new PM. And as we have seen that is something MPs on all sides are keen to avoid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IanB2 said:

    Lidington telling Beckett her amendment means revocation or, only if EU agrees, a very long extension.

    Well that won't scare half the Commons. Any sign those who might fear it believe it, and if they will take action to stop it or rather just start wailing and smashing their toys in protest (eg causing a GE) even though it helps no one?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Re the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.

    This purports to know that sort of thing:

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Hover over AVERAGE: 289 PER MINUTE and it gives you hourly and daily equivalents. I think it was about 600 per minute yesterday afternoon, in which case the rate has halved. I also think it's a bit academic - it has already produced all the impact it is going to have.
    You'd expect it to follow a sigmoid curve - build slowly, accelerate to a very fast pace and then slow down. You could probably get a pretty good prediction of the final figure if you could track the numbers so far.
    If it's still adding a million a day, however - I'm very interested to see if it reaches 6 million by tomorrow - that decline to a stasis position is surely going to take a long time.

    I suppose it depends on the rate of decline - which is where we need our data expert ; or better access to what the data is.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum

    I dont want any of the 3 though

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.

    Yep that would be my position as well.
    It's the only one that honours the referendum result. May's deal would be better though
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Cash at least has clearly realised the tide is going out on the ERG position. May's earlier dismissal of no deal has hit home.

    Meanwhile Clarke challenges Labour on whipping the indicative votes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,018

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?
    One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.
    That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.

    Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
    I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.
    Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.
    Polling show it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.
    I don't think most people realise that if it goes through, politics will still be dominated by Brexit for the foreseeable future.
    That applies to revocation as well.

    You are just as fanatical as Steve Baker and Mark Francois, just on the exact opposite side and with more creativity and intelligence.
    I don't think it is like that, much as our love of symmetry leads us to want it to be true. If we revoke, where does that leave Brexit as a project? How do you go about campaigning for it? It wasn't exactly an easy sell last time. You might just about get away with it if there is no second referendum and you can say that you are fulfilling the 2016 result. But that is a diminishing asset. Speaking personally I no longer regard the result of that referendum as valid. Others may be more indulgent, but ultimately the time will come when it carries no power at all. I don't think anyone used the 1976 result to argue against Labour's manifesto commitment in 1983. So lets give it 6 years max.

    And if there is another referendum there is very little chance of leave winning again. How many of their arguments still stand up? Precious few. And as we saw last Saturday, there is now a really determined opposition.

    If we don't get Brexit now it is off the agenda. For ever.
    A master class in cognitive dissonance.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,018

    Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
    Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million. :)
    I never said anything of the sort.

    My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.

    It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.

    It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
    I wonder where they got the idea, if what you suggest is true.

    "We sent London a million marchers..." I can picture the words painted on some form of public transport...
    Pre-planned spin. I laid that out on here before 10am on Saturday morning as well.

    The organisers are very well advised by the masters, like Alastair Campbell.
    I disagree with most of what you say, but you were right there. Having claimed 700,000 last time they simply had to claim a million whatever happened.
    Thank you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,018

    IanB2 said:

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
    Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million. :)
    I never said anything of the sort.

    My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.

    It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.

    It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
    I was joking CR. That is what the smiley means.
    Fair enough. I missed that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Is Starmer just going to make political points or actually try and do something constructive. The front benches actual legal EU exit positions are a fag paper apart ffsake.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,018
    IanB2 said:

    Cash at least has clearly realised the tide is going out on the ERG position. May's earlier dismissal of no deal has hit home.

    Meanwhile Clarke challenges Labour on whipping the indicative votes.


    Too little too late.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Starmer just going to make political points or actually try and do something constructive. The front benches actual legal EU exit positions are a fag paper apart ffsake.

    If they truly are that close, then Theresa doesn't have to move very far...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    The government is now effectively responding, not proposing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Donald on the news suggesting his accusers (Clintons?) are guilty of treason.

    Sounds like he's taking recent developments in his stride... :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If Mrs May's deal is really bad, it's perfectly rational to prefer to stay in the European Union for a few more years until a better deal becomes available.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    Didn’t someone tip him as next president?

    I guess an actual charge might be an hindrance?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.

    At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited March 2019
    AndyJS said:

    If Mrs May's deal is really bad, it's perfectly rational to prefer to stay in the European Union for a few more years until a better deal becomes available.

    No it isn't, parliament is not going to restart the clock and spend another 2 years on this, it's not rational to pretend otherwise. The question is is it so bad remaining is better (for leavers - obviously continuity remainers would say any deal is worse than remaining)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.

    At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).

    The danger with a second referendum is that it's likely the results in each area would become more polarised, with Remain areas becoming more Remain and Leave areas becoming more Leave. I'm not sure what the overall result would be.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.
    I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.
    That’s one job where I do think that gender differentiation is helpful
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    .
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.

    At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).

    The danger with a second referendum is that it's likely the results in each area would become more polarised, with Remain areas becoming more Remain and Leave areas becoming more Leave. I'm not sure what the overall result would be.
    Any referendum with Remain on the ballot should result in anarchy
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    Charles said:

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.
    I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.
    That’s one job where I do think that gender differentiation is helpful
    I get confused between Stormy Daniels and Stormzy.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Charles said:

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    Didn’t someone tip him as next president?

    I guess an actual charge might be an hindrance?
    On the facts as disclosed, slightly surprised that the Nike lawyers didn’t report Avenetti to his bar licensing authority. There’s agressive litigation behaviour and there’s extortion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    edited March 2019
    Starmer is mostly lawyer's waffle; Owen Smith's intervention nails the key question of whether Lidington's commitments can be trusted if Letwin doesn't pass.

    Starmer is a decent and intelligent guy, hamstrung by his party preventing him saying anything of worth. You wouldn't think our country's future hung in the balance.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.

    At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).

    The danger with a second referendum is that it's likely the results in each area would become more polarised, with Remain areas becoming more Remain and Leave areas becoming more Leave. I'm not sure what the overall result would be.
    What do you base that on? Survation showed in its constituency level poll that the biggest switchers to Remain were the WWC in Wales, Northwest etc. It is the proseperous shire Leaver demographic that is more solid:

    https://www.survation.com/what-does-the-british-public-now-think-about-brexit/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.
    The HoC can’t do that

    They have to fire the government

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2019
    Foxy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.

    At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).

    The danger with a second referendum is that it's likely the results in each area would become more polarised, with Remain areas becoming more Remain and Leave areas becoming more Leave. I'm not sure what the overall result would be.
    What do you base that on? Survation showed in its constituency level poll that the biggest switchers to Remain were the WWC in Wales, Northwest etc. It is the proseperous shire Leaver demographic that is more solid:

    https://www.survation.com/what-does-the-british-public-now-think-about-brexit/
    Yeah, and it also showed the increase in support for Remain being lower than average in the very Remainy areas (though that could be a ceiling effect).

    Richmond and the City of London(!!) were projected to be the only places where Leave would score more than in 2016.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.
    The HoC can’t do that

    They have to fire the government

    Or the government steps up and runs with what the House comes up with. Assuming it does.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.
    The HoC can’t do that

    They have to fire the government

    Or the government steps up and runs with what the House comes up with. Assuming it does.
    They won’t do that on principle

    The precedent would be awful for future good governance
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    If Mrs May's deal is really bad, it's perfectly rational to prefer to stay in the European Union for a few more years until a better deal becomes available.

    No it isn't, parliament is not going to restart the clock and spend another 2 years on this, it's not rational to pretend otherwise. The question is is it so bad remaining is better (for leavers - obviously continuity remainers would say any deal is worse than remaining)
    It's better to Remain with influence than have a Deal where we're told what to do by the EU without any input. That's true even for strong Leave supporters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    2nd ref isn't a substance issue ?!

    Sweet Jesus
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.
    The HoC can’t do that

    They have to fire the government

    Or the government steps up and runs with what the House comes up with. Assuming it does.
    They won’t do that on principle

    The precedent would be awful for future good governance
    Good governance went out the window some time back.

    This thread has been

    EXTENDED

    but not here.

    Letwin sounds a little nervous at the import of his speech.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.
    The HoC can’t do that

    They have to fire the government

    Or the government steps up and runs with what the House comes up with. Assuming it does.
    They won’t do that on principle

    The precedent would be awful for future good governance
    What precedent? A minority government can always be controlled with the threat of a VONC. This is the same thing really.
  • NEW THREAD

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited March 2019
    ..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.
    The HoC can’t do that

    They have to fire the government

    May this afternoon effectively said the Commons having voted against No Deal if it continued to oppose her Deal the only alternative would be a lengthy extension and contesting the EU elections.

    Hence Crispin Blunt called it 'the greatest capitulation of a British Governmemt since the fall of Singapore'
This discussion has been closed.