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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both TMay and Corbyn drop to record lows in YouGov’s favourabi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,017
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both TMay and Corbyn drop to record lows in YouGov’s favourability tracker

I always feel a sense of ownership with the YouGov favourability ratings for shortly after the referendum, in 2016, I got into a  discussion with the pollster about a line of questioning that I suggested that the firm should do. My desire was favourability ratings on key figures.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,262
    First! Like another extension.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    I didn't realise that the Absolute Boy's peak was zero. What an utter disaster he has been.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,377
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I didn't realise that the Absolute Boy's peak was zero. What an utter disaster he has been.

    Amazing isn't it considering he won GE2017 according to his fan club.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    This argument by second referendumers that another referendum on whatever the house decides is a process and not a substance issue is simply staggering.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.

  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    edited March 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I didn't realise that the Absolute Boy's peak was zero. What an utter disaster he has been.

    Amazing isn't it considering he won GE2017 according to his fan club.
    I've referenced the young middle class hobby socialist in our family before. Even when the numbers are held under his nose, he refuses to countenance that Corybz is anything other than wildly popular in the country at large.

    The cult remains strong, and I despair that he will not go even when they lose the next GE.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,804
    AndyJS said:

    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.


    NEVER! NEVER! NEVER!


    :D
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.
    On those numbers it would be third - the Countryside Alliance March of 2002 would be bigger.

    Interesting list here, but it only goes up to 2011:

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,592
    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.

    In terms of political demonstrations certainly so, perhaps Royal and similar non political events should be classified differently.

    Like the petition, the numbers are huge and becoming more insistent on their voices being heard.

    82 on the #MarchToLeave from Leicester to Oakham today, so easier to count.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,262
    edited March 2019
    Clarke arguing for STV on indicative options (he means AV, but never mind)

    Both Starmer and Letwin are mired in the detail and aren't setting out the big picture for what is surely a much bigger audience than BBC Parliament usually gets.

    Letwin arguing that the indicative vote process will need a second day of debate, and bemoaning that government hasn't a clue where to go next. Determined to push his proposal to a vote.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,314
    AndyJS said:

    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.

    Strong Leavers may be of the view that No Deal isn’t politically sustainable and leads to rejoin and full fat Remain whereas a status quo Remain keeps the opt outs.

    May’s Deal effectively increases the opt outs via opt ins, from the outside, but it’s pretty clear that ship has sailed.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    AndyJS said:

    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.

    We haven't even started the negotiation of the Deal.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    There should be some kind of doubles match, Trump and Clinton vs May and Corbyn, to establish which is the more unpalatable pair of alternatives.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    Letwin is right - if the House bottles this vote, May will run the process into the sand. Either through calculation, or stubborn indecision.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.
    On those numbers it would be third - the Countryside Alliance March of 2002 would be bigger.

    Interesting list here, but it only goes up to 2011:

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
    The presumption is that the Countryside Alliance march numbers were also exaggerated on the same basis.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,053
    Foxy said:

    Like the petition, the numbers are huge and becoming more insistent on their voices being heard.

    No other cause has been able to get so many people to march on multiple occasions.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I didn't realise that the Absolute Boy's peak was zero. What an utter disaster he has been.

    Amazing isn't it considering he won GE2017 according to his fan club.
    :innocent:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.
    On those numbers it would be third - the Countryside Alliance March of 2002 would be bigger.

    Interesting list here, but it only goes up to 2011:

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
    The presumption is that the Countryside Alliance march numbers were also exaggerated on the same basis.
    I was going by the police estimate, which was 400,000.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    So MPs are going to avoid No Deal by voting yet again against the EU's Deal?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721
    IanB2 said:

    Clarke arguing for STV on indicative options (he means AV, but never mind)

    Both Starmer and Letwin are mired in the detail and aren't setting out the big picture for what is surely a much bigger audience than BBC Parliament usually gets.

    Letwin arguing that the indicative vote process will need a second day of debate, and bemoaning that government hasn't a clue where to go next. Determined to push his proposal to a vote.

    As he should, though the idea that lot need any more debate is laughable. One thing they have managed is to talk every option to death.
    Nigelb said:

    Letwin is right - if the House bottles this vote, May will run the process into the sand. Either through calculation, or stubborn indecision.

    I'm not convinced she wanted to win last time, and was just as surprised she did. It's all been downhill for her since then, she she had no numbers to execute any plan and perhaps needed it taken off her hands.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    AndyJS said:

    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.

    I couldn't possibly comment!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    kle4 said:

    As he should, though the idea that lot need any more debate is laughable.

    Be fair. They need space to demonstrate just how big a bunch of mass debaters they are.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    Casino_Royale said:

    AndyJS said:

    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.

    Strong Leavers may be of the view that No Deal isn’t politically sustainable and leads to rejoin and full fat Remain whereas a status quo Remain keeps the opt outs.

    May’s Deal effectively increases the opt outs via opt ins, from the outside, but it’s pretty clear that ship has sailed.
    I reckon most Leave voters would have voted Remain if Cameron's deal had included an end to FOM. I would have anyway
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.
    On those numbers it would be third - the Countryside Alliance March of 2002 would be bigger.

    Interesting list here, but it only goes up to 2011:

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
    The presumption is that the Countryside Alliance march numbers were also exaggerated on the same basis.
    No, CA marchers were counted individually through a gate.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.

    I couldn't possibly comment!
    Brexit is falling like a House of Cards?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,377
    edited March 2019
    I like this approach from the landlord.

    These kids and their parents should stop stop complaining and start working harder.

    Too poor to play: children in social housing blocked from communal playground.

    In a move reminiscent of the poor doors scandal, a London developer has segregated play areas for richer and poorer residents

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/mar/25/too-poor-to-play-children-in-social-housing-blocked-from-communal-playground?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    Apols to interrupt a busy evening but can anyone on the PB brainstrust recommend a good flight tracker?

    Trying to find out the latest on Easyjet U28895 Gatwick to Marrakech which as apparently taken off, returned with a fault, landed, new plane, had four men taken off(?!), not sure if has departed again.

    Thanks!
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Crikey!

    https://metro.co.uk/2019/03/25/brexiteer-admits-egging-jeremy-corbyn-as-he-left-mosque-9006343/?ito=social&fbclid=IwAR30yh3MtU3yHUR_9hrzG036nCaRL8mzN2fmSzTYvxfE7Ot4qeV8U402G3o
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,592
    williamglenn said:

    Foxy said:

    Like the petition, the numbers are huge and becoming more insistent on their voices being heard.

    No other cause has been able to get so many people to march on multiple occasions.
    CND managed repeated giant marches in the Sixties and Early Eighties, but even those were on a smaller scale.

    People who claimed that we were becoming politically apathetic should be hearted by Jezzas mass rallies of 2017 and the #PeoplesVote marches.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    As he should, though the idea that lot need any more debate is laughable.

    Be fair. They need space to demonstrate just how big a bunch of mass debaters they are.
    Counting the numbers in the House, there’s nothing mass about it.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,314
    isam said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AndyJS said:

    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.

    Strong Leavers may be of the view that No Deal isn’t politically sustainable and leads to rejoin and full fat Remain whereas a status quo Remain keeps the opt outs.

    May’s Deal effectively increases the opt outs via opt ins, from the outside, but it’s pretty clear that ship has sailed.
    I reckon most Leave voters would have voted Remain if Cameron's deal had included an end to FOM. I would have anyway
    If he’d got a draft treaty with legal force, rather than an MoU, according to his Bloomberg speech, I’d even have campaigned for it.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    Benpointer said:

    Apols to interrupt a busy evening but can anyone on the PB brainstrust recommend a good flight tracker?

    Trying to find out the latest on Easyjet U28895 Gatwick to Marrakech which as apparently taken off, returned with a fault, landed, new plane, had four men taken off(?!), not sure if has departed again.

    Thanks!

    https://www.flightradar24.com/
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,262
    The Tory benches are deserted (just a few strong remainers), suggesting they know the intiative is slipping away from them.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,811
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I didn't realise that the Absolute Boy's peak was zero. What an utter disaster he has been.

    Amazing isn't it considering he won GE2017 according to his fan club.
    :innocent:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
    Just like the Scottish Tories claiming they won in 2017?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    As he should, though the idea that lot need any more debate is laughable.

    Be fair. They need space to demonstrate just how big a bunch of mass debaters they are.
    Counting the numbers in the House, there’s nothing mass about it.
    Only a small mass debate? Is this a reference to Tom Watson's male appendage?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    Nothing for TIG?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Panic ! https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1110260497897668608
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.
    On those numbers it would be third - the Countryside Alliance March of 2002 would be bigger.

    Interesting list here, but it only goes up to 2011:

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
    The presumption is that the Countryside Alliance march numbers were also exaggerated on the same basis.
    No, CA marchers were counted individually through a gate.
    A farm gate?
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    Letwin is right - if the House bottles this vote, May will run the process into the sand. Either through calculation, or stubborn indecision.

    How? The EU have said they are going to get medieval on our asses on April 12 if she is dithering, and I think it should have sunk in by now that they mean what they say.
  • Options
    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    Nigelb said:

    Letwin is right - if the House bottles this vote, May will run the process into the sand. Either through calculation, or stubborn indecision.

    Letwin's speech was a triumph of moderation and reasonableness. The only problem is that many of his colleagues are neither of these. Laudable though his approach is he seems to have forgotten that ultimately there are only two voting lobbies in the House; Aye and No. Are MPs who have used their STV (or equivalent) to vote for their sixth least worst option actually going to go into the Aye lobby to bring it into law? I suspect (based on precedent) that they will not.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    Nothing for TIG?
    Eclipsed by the UKIP surge, with Brexit postponed it is now Leavers getting annoyed it seems beyond central London
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    Nothing for TIG?
    Only an extract of malt sandwich.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    OldKingCole said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.
    On those numbers it would be third - the Countryside Alliance March of 2002 would be bigger.

    Interesting list here, but it only goes up to 2011:

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
    The presumption is that the Countryside Alliance march numbers were also exaggerated on the same basis.
    No, CA marchers were counted individually through a gate.
    A farm gate?
    There were six gates, five barred.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,377
    Pulpstar said:

    Panic ! https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1110260497897668608

    He's been on one heck of a journey in the last fortnight from collaborating with a foreign power to interfere in the UK to facilitate No Deal to approving the Deal.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,988
    Pulpstar said:

    This argument by second referendumers that another referendum on whatever the house decides is a process and not a substance issue is simply staggering.

    But it's true.

    The substance is CU or EFTA or May's Deal or Canada etc. It is the destination.

    Each of them have two flavours - with or without a confirmatory vote.

    e.g. Mrs May's deal or Mrs May's deal plus a confirmatory vote.

    Substance versus process is a useful distinction.

    In this debate I think Starmer and Letwin have agreed that the focus first should be on substance rather than on whether there should be a confirmatory vote. That decision can come late when the substance has been agreed.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    There has to be something seriously wrong with a pollsters methodology if they come up with a UKIP score of 9%. I guess it can be used as a measure of how many people would vote for an exclusively pro Brexit party
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    Nothing for TIG?
    Noticeable that the UKIP vote has been inching up again these last few weeks.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    Nothing for TIG?
    Only an extract of malt sandwich.
    Cod Liver Oil and Malt. Always had a jaundiced eye for those who came in to buy that.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Panic ! https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1110260497897668608

    He's been on one heck of a journey in the last fortnight from collaborating with a foreign power to interfere in the UK to facilitate No Deal to approving the Deal.
    Which foreign power? Or are you just referring to his penchant for voting with Corbyn?
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,308
    edited March 2019
    Why isn't Letwin PM - too damn reasonable?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,377
    https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1110263104762511361
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited March 2019
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    There has to be something seriously wrong with a pollsters methodology if they come up with a UKIP score of 9%. I guess it can be used as a measure of how many people would vote for an exclusively pro Brexit party


    It seems diehard Leavers are back to a UKIP protest vote and a plague on all their houses.

    UKIP now polling closer to 2015 than 2017 levels
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    Nothing for TIG?
    Only an extract of malt sandwich.
    Cod Liver Oil and Malt. Always had a jaundiced eye for those who came in to buy that.
    Such a combination would rapidly pill on me...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Benpointer said:

    Apols to interrupt a busy evening but can anyone on the PB brainstrust recommend a good flight tracker?

    Trying to find out the latest on Easyjet U28895 Gatwick to Marrakech which as apparently taken off, returned with a fault, landed, new plane, had four men taken off(?!), not sure if has departed again.

    Thanks!

    https://www.flightradar24.com/
    Cheers Sunil - I'll let you off giving that oh-so-hilarious graph yet another outing! :wink:

    I presume the same flight code will be used when (if) it takes off again?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Why isn't Letwin PM - too damn reasonable?

    No, too gaffe prone. Poll taxes and tax cuts both spring to mind.
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Panic ! https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1110260497897668608

    He's been on one heck of a journey in the last fortnight from collaborating with a foreign power to interfere in the UK to facilitate No Deal to approving the Deal.
    The NFU have been on his case. Farmers in Shropshire are not keen on a no deal Brexit
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,377
    edited March 2019
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Panic ! https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1110260497897668608

    He's been on one heck of a journey in the last fortnight from collaborating with a foreign power to interfere in the UK to facilitate No Deal to approving the Deal.
    Which foreign power? Or are you just referring to his penchant for voting with Corbyn?
    https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/daniel-kawczynski-poland-no-deal-brexit-article-50-block-extension/

    https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2019/01/24/calls-for-shrewsbury-mp-to-publish-brexit-letter-to-polish-government/
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,592
    Benpointer said:

    Apols to interrupt a busy evening but can anyone on the PB brainstrust recommend a good flight tracker?

    Trying to find out the latest on Easyjet U28895 Gatwick to Marrakech which as apparently taken off, returned with a fault, landed, new plane, had four men taken off(?!), not sure if has departed again.

    Thanks!

    The Easyjet app shows it as a late departure leaving 2045 estimated to arrive 0125 in Marrakesh. So presumably loading the new plane.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    Apols to interrupt a busy evening but can anyone on the PB brainstrust recommend a good flight tracker?

    Trying to find out the latest on Easyjet U28895 Gatwick to Marrakech which as apparently taken off, returned with a fault, landed, new plane, had four men taken off(?!), not sure if has departed again.

    Thanks!

    The Easyjet app shows it as a late departure leaving 2045 estimated to arrive 0125 in Marrakesh. So presumably loading the new plane.
    Ah ok thanks
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,847
    Evening all :)

    Get back home from a busy day at work to find she's still there !! What happened to the great Cabinet coup - oh yes, that arch-May loyalist, Tim Shipman, let the cat out of the bag and the "plotters" folded faster than an Origami champion on steroids.

    So to another evening of Parliamentary pointlessness - if no MV3 is forthcoming, then we leave without a WA on 12/4. What else is there?

    George Osborne tore the whole house of arguments into shreds in the Standard's editorial this evening:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-it-isn-t-brexit-week-but-it-s-still-chaotic-a4100011.html

    There is a significant minority of Conservatives still wanting the UK to leave without a Deal on 29/3 - will they cause problems over extending the deadline? What of revocation - what is the political price for both Conservatives AND Labour if A50 is stopped?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    @Benpointer

    Took of from LGW, went as far as Southampton, circled and landed back at LGW

    https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/u28895#1fed2a4f
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    As he should, though the idea that lot need any more debate is laughable.

    Be fair. They need space to demonstrate just how big a bunch of mass debaters they are.
    Counting the numbers in the House, there’s nothing mass about it.
    Only a small mass debate? Is this a reference to Tom Watson's male appendage?
    I can only defer to your apparent superior expertise on the matter.

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    Good God, Gethins is tedious.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    There has to be something seriously wrong with a pollsters methodology if they come up with a UKIP score of 9%. I guess it can be used as a measure of how many people would vote for an exclusively pro Brexit party
    Opinium were one of the more accurate pollsters in the last 2 general elections.

    It seems diehard Leavers are back to a UKIP protest vote and a plague on all their houses.

    UKIP now polling closer to 2015 than 2017 levels
    Yes but they have no hope of fielding enough candididates to get 3% if there were a GE this year
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    Benpointer said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Benpointer said:

    Apols to interrupt a busy evening but can anyone on the PB brainstrust recommend a good flight tracker?

    Trying to find out the latest on Easyjet U28895 Gatwick to Marrakech which as apparently taken off, returned with a fault, landed, new plane, had four men taken off(?!), not sure if has departed again.

    Thanks!

    https://www.flightradar24.com/
    Cheers Sunil - I'll let you off giving that oh-so-hilarious graph yet another outing! :wink:

    I presume the same flight code will be used when (if) it takes off again?
    Um, I was "triggered" by TSE's comment :innocent:
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,804
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Why isn't Letwin PM - too damn reasonable?

    Are you actually trying to make me cry? :(
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,262
    Nigelb said:

    Good God, Gethins is tedious.

    This debate has descended to the level of a late night planning committee.

    Hopefully Clarke will be up soon.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    If the Gov't was actually in thrall to the hardliners, surely it would have not sought an extension ?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.

    The Countryside Alliance got some pretty big crowds at their various demonstrations during the Blair premiership.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    Pulpstar said:

    Panic ! https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1110260497897668608

    Ah, the ERG. Holding out for nuclear Brexit wasn't quite the winning strategy they thought. The ideological purists on the far left of Lab, and this lot, are two cheeks of the same arse.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Benpointer said:

    Apols to interrupt a busy evening but can anyone on the PB brainstrust recommend a good flight tracker?

    Trying to find out the latest on Easyjet U28895 Gatwick to Marrakech which as apparently taken off, returned with a fault, landed, new plane, had four men taken off(?!), not sure if has departed again.

    Thanks!

    https://www.flightradar24.com/
    Cheers Sunil - I'll let you off giving that oh-so-hilarious graph yet another outing! :wink:

    I presume the same flight code will be used when (if) it takes off again?
    Um, I was "triggered" by TSE's comment :innocent:
    Ok but only you can say no to the temptation. :wink:
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    There has to be something seriously wrong with a pollsters methodology if they come up with a UKIP score of 9%. I guess it can be used as a measure of how many people would vote for an exclusively pro Brexit party
    Opinium were one of the more accurate pollsters in the last 2 general elections.

    It seems diehard Leavers are back to a UKIP protest vote and a plague on all their houses.

    UKIP now polling closer to 2015 than 2017 levels
    Yes but they have no hope of fielding enough candididates to get 3% if there were a GE this year
    And Farage's lot could steal a fair few votes from them as well.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Panic ! https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1110260497897668608

    Ah, the ERG. Holding out for nuclear Brexit wasn't quite the winning strategy they thought. The ideological purists on the far left of Lab, and this lot, are two cheeks of the same arse.
    More like arses with too much cheek.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.

    I couldn't possibly comment!
    I wasn't speaking for myself, I was putting myself in the position of No Deal supporters.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Panic ! https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1110260497897668608

    Ah, the ERG. Holding out for nuclear Brexit wasn't quite the winning strategy they thought. The ideological purists on the far left of Lab, and this lot, are two cheeks of the same arse.
    People were pointing out this blinding obvious point weeks ago. Too damn late now.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2019
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    Nothing for TIG?
    They weren't included in this poll.

    Last week, they produced a second poll including TIG, which showed them at 4%, tied with the Greens.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,262
    Pulpstar said:

    If the Gov't was actually in thrall to the hardliners, surely it would have not sought an extension ?

    We needed an extension whatever. May was going to ask for a long one, the short one having been condemned as futile in no uncertain terms by her minister just days before. So we will be back at the longer extension before too long.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,262
    Tory Soames will vote for Letwin.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,811
    OldKingCole said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1110225621731500032?s=20

    It will still be in the top three biggest public attendance events ever in the UK, and probably the second after the Stop the Iraq War march of 2003.

    The point they are making in that article is that numbers are always overestimated.
    On those numbers it would be third - the Countryside Alliance March of 2002 would be bigger.

    Interesting list here, but it only goes up to 2011:

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
    The presumption is that the Countryside Alliance march numbers were also exaggerated on the same basis.
    No, CA marchers were counted individually through a gate.
    A farm gate?
    Presumably like those at a mass start in a marathon.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Panic ! https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1110260497897668608

    Ah, the ERG. Holding out for nuclear Brexit wasn't quite the winning strategy they thought. The ideological purists on the far left of Lab, and this lot, are two cheeks of the same arse.
    The thing is, I don't think the hard core of the ERG necessarily thought they were on to a winning strategy. That's why they are unpersuadable, because they aren't getting worried or upset about not winning, they are just getting angry. Perhaps the larger grouping of them are the sort to get worried, but the first group, and the completely unprincipled like Boris, are more than enough to cause immense difficulty still.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    Soames is practically channelling Billy Bragg here...

    'Sweet moderation, the heart of this nation, desert us not...'
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    There has to be something seriously wrong with a pollsters methodology if they come up with a UKIP score of 9%. I guess it can be used as a measure of how many people would vote for an exclusively pro Brexit party
    Opinium were one of the more accurate pollsters in the last 2 general elections.

    It seems diehard Leavers are back to a UKIP protest vote and a plague on all their houses.

    UKIP now polling closer to 2015 than 2017 levels
    Yes but they have no hope of fielding enough candididates to get 3% if there were a GE this year
    Are you still a UKIP member/supporter?
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Nicholas Soames now taking a swipe at the ERG .

    Says he will never vote for no deal and neither for a second EU referendum .
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,804
    IanB2 said:

    Tory Soames will vote for Letwin.

    They are both passionate Remainers. Are we supposed to be surprised?
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Gov't was actually in thrall to the hardliners, surely it would have not sought an extension ?

    We needed an extension whatever. May was going to ask for a long one, the short one having been condemned as futile in no uncertain terms by her minister just days before. So we will be back at the longer extension before too long.
    So uncertainty will continue and business investment and FDI will continue to be subdued. Yet I listen to all these MP's that are so concerned about the economy and jobs.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited March 2019
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    There has to be something seriously wrong with a pollsters methodology if they come up with a UKIP score of 9%. I guess it can be used as a measure of how many people would vote for an exclusively pro Brexit party
    Opinium were one of the more accurate pollsters in the last 2 general elections.

    It seems diehard Leavers are back to a UKIP protest vote and a plague on all their houses.

    UKIP now polling closer to 2015 than 2017 levels
    Yes but they have no hope of fielding enough candididates to get 3% if there were a GE this year
    Mr Farage's new Brexit Party could though and will also likely have lots of dosh from Banks and his wealthy contacts
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited March 2019
    Telegraph reporting Letwin on 310 votes at the moment. Time for Rudd, Guake and Clark to resign to get it over the line.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory Soames will vote for Letwin.

    They are both passionate Remainers. Are we supposed to be surprised?
    Both voted for the deal compared to the ERG nutjobs who voted against . Stop trashing anyone who just wants to leave with a deal . Blame the so called Brexiters for destroying their own project .
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,053
    Do they have a special costume?

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1110262557485527043
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,308
    Soames excellent.

    Never expected to write that.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    ralphmalph said:

    Telegraph reporting Letwin on 310 votes at the moment. Time for Rudd, Guake and Clark to resign to get it over the line.

    LMAO - they will still be sitting in the Cabinet, the day after we leave with No Deal, briefing the papers about how jolly cross they are with the policy that they're enabling.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    There has to be something seriously wrong with a pollsters methodology if they come up with a UKIP score of 9%. I guess it can be used as a measure of how many people would vote for an exclusively pro Brexit party
    Opinium were one of the more accurate pollsters in the last 2 general elections.

    It seems diehard Leavers are back to a UKIP protest vote and a plague on all their houses.

    UKIP now polling closer to 2015 than 2017 levels
    Yes but they have no hope of fielding enough candididates to get 3% if there were a GE this year
    Mr Farage's new Brexit Party could though and will also likely have lots of dosh from Banks and his wealthy contacts
    He has said he is very well funded. There are more Brexit donors than Banks, the official vote leave campaign was well funded.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    AndyJS said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Remain is better than a bad deal. Even strong Leavers may be coming round to that view.

    I couldn't possibly comment!
    I wasn't speaking for myself, I was putting myself in the position of No Deal supporters.
    Sorry, but I was actually speaking for myself.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Soames excellent.

    Never expected to write that.

    This whole dismal process has shifted my view on some parliamentarians, past and present, in surprising directions.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721
    williamglenn said:

    Do they have a special costume?

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1110262557485527043

    So many meetings, so little concluded after them. What do they spend their time doing at all these meetings? Same goes with the DUP and the endless 'constructive' talks they have on things.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    I love the way 2nd referendumers have switched to this "confirmation" of whatever the house decides. The house needs to decide to allow the public another referendum, it isn't simply some process matter that can be tacked onto Corbyn's Customs Unicorn or whatever is agreed.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    williamglenn said:

    Do they have a special costume?

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1110262557485527043

    Do they go around in white robes?
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1110257600573177856?s=20

    There has to be something seriously wrong with a pollsters methodology if they come up with a UKIP score of 9%. I guess it can be used as a measure of how many people would vote for an exclusively pro Brexit party
    Opinium were one of the more accurate pollsters in the last 2 general elections.

    It seems diehard Leavers are back to a UKIP protest vote and a plague on all their houses.

    UKIP now polling closer to 2015 than 2017 levels
    Yes but they have no hope of fielding enough candididates to get 3% if there were a GE this year
    Mr Farage's new Brexit Party could though and will also likely have lots of dosh from Banks and his wealthy contacts
    Farage is all piss and wind. Very successful piss and wind at times, but these successes have come when he has a party behind him. The "Brexit Party" currently doesn't show any more sign of having national organisation than TIG does.
This discussion has been closed.