Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The road to Brexit gets even more complicated

2

Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Artist said:

    I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way . Likewise a lot of remain voters will be wondering what is the point of leaving at all under this arrangement. The press will absolutely lay into it.

    Hence we will end with a CM2 v Remain referendum
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    ..the only reason we're told to sign up to this deal is because its all the EU is willing to offer.

    That's not true. There are lots of good reasons to sign the deal. It protects the UK from being threatened with no deal in the next phase of negotiations. It protects the UK from being threatened with border chaos in Ireland during the next phase of negotiations.

    These are two big things that make the UK negotiating position stronger four the future trade talks.

    You don't value them, or you don't believe them, but people make the argument for them, and for other things in the Withdrawal Agreement that make it a good deal for the UK, if Brexit is something you want.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    IanB2 said:

    Artist said:

    I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way . Likewise a lot of remain voters will be wondering what is the point of leaving at all under this arrangement. The press will absolutely lay into it.

    Hence we will end with a CM2 v Remain referendum
    wishful thinking
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    So be it.

    I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.

    F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
    It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?
    That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.

    I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...
    Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?
    Did we make a decision to cross the railway lines already? If there's an oncoming train then cross at a different point or at a time that suits us.
    No. Of course we didn't vote for leaving without a deal.
    We voted to Leave.

    If we can get a deal before we leave, great. If we can't oh well.
    Gove told the cabinet No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.

    He knows No Deal screws the voters and ensures we Rejoin PDQ.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Artist said:

    I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way .

    They don't care about "selling" anything to Brexit voters... Well other than cyanide pills maybe?

    This is all about showing the dregs of society who voted to leave who is in charge, The plebs will mind their business and know their place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kjohnw said:

    Is there any way the tories could engineer a GE without May as PM?

    Even if they could, that helps them agree a unified party stance how?
    Whoever is leader controls what goes in the manifesto. Candidates either stand on that manifesto or are replaced.
    And so they pick a new leader, with or without member input, that leader shows a boldness to excise possibly significant numbers of serving MPs from their ranks, and then they campaign on this new policy, whatever it is, with potentially dozens of former members of parliament standing against them in those seats.

    That will go well for the Tories will it?

    May is a huge problem right now. But she didn't cause the Tories' problems either.
    I suspect the number of MPs who would actually stand as independents in that situation is relatively low, and in many of those cases the Tories would win anyway.

    To be honest, the GE option is essentially throwing the cards up in the air and hoping that this time they land in a way that allows a majority for something. I think having everyone stand on a manifesto which specifically endorses an option makes that more likely rather than less, because it strengthens the whip, but it's certainly not a guarantee of anything.
    The Tories' problem - apart from the reputational damage already done - is fighting an election either on May's deal, which much of their party hate, or on some harder Brexit that trashes their record since 2017, is harder to sell to the public, and drives away their more sensible voices.

    Labour has its problems too, but from opposition at least has a chance of campaigning on a soft Brexit v Remain referendum, giving it something to offer both sides.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Sean_F said:

    This is odd, isn't it? From the Guardian live blog:

    Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks Bercow if he will set up a committee to ensure that the indicative votes process runs smoothly on Wednesday.

    Bercow says Oliver Letwin will take charge of the process, and he says he is sure Letwin will want to ensure it runs properly.


    Has parliament decided that Letwin should take charge? I'd have thought that Vince makes a very sensible point (and you won't often hear me say that!) - surely it is parliament as a whole which should now be in charge of the process?

    The words "Letwin takes charge" should make anyone's blood run cold.
    Well, he’s won a vote in Parliament which is more than the government has managed.
  • HYUFD said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    Yes, Farage obviously can't wait to cry 'betrayal' again and Cash and Redwood were already having withdrawal symptoms about complaining about the EU, they are made to be rant against the EU, not to suggest any viable alternative
    You all miss the point. If you are a mouth foamer you can't vote for May's deal to secure Brexit. As May's deal isn't Brexit. It's a Betrayal and a deception. So no, they can't fall back into line to vote to leave the EU as if they vote to leave the EU it means we don't leave the EU
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,721

    1st like May in a stupidity contest.

    Andy JS thinks she is doing quite well.

    Must win the prize for lowest expectations of any PBer in the history of PB
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    This is odd, isn't it? From the Guardian live blog:

    Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks Bercow if he will set up a committee to ensure that the indicative votes process runs smoothly on Wednesday.

    Bercow says Oliver Letwin will take charge of the process, and he says he is sure Letwin will want to ensure it runs properly.


    Has parliament decided that Letwin should take charge? I'd have thought that Vince makes a very sensible point (and you won't often hear me say that!) - surely it is parliament as a whole which should now be in charge of the process?

    The words "Letwin takes charge" should make anyone's blood run cold.
    Well, he’s won a vote in Parliament which is more than the government has managed.
    :lol:
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    "Most voters believe Parliament is determined to block Brexit in defiance of the electorate’s will, a poll reveals.

    Some 55 per cent believe Parliament is determined to thwart Brexit, including almost two in five (38 per cent) Remain voters and 87 per cent of Leavers.

    Fewer than one in five (19 per cent) of the public disagree.

    The ComRes online poll of 2,030 British adults found most voters (54
    per cent) also felt Remain-supporting MPs and other Establishment
    figures trying to stop Brexit had damaged the UK’s negotiating position
    with the EU, against just 24 per cent who disagreed.

    Two in five (41 per cent) agreed that instead of delaying Brexit, Britain should just leave to trade on WTO rules...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    The 'we'll do it later' argument is an absolute fantasy, transparently about convincing themselves that they are not giving up on Brexit by refusing to back the only type they will be offered, even if they directly cause remain as a result.
    The Brexit vote wasn't something offered it was something fought for - and voted for.

    The voters who backed it are still going to be there, only even angrier if betrayal is completed. I don't want to be "offered" a type of Brexit like I'm some starving orphan in a Dickensian novel going "please Sir, can I have some more?"
    As you have pointed out the vote was for leave, and that was it. Expectations in many areas would be high, and it would be very disappointing not to get that. But expecting to get everything you want? That is completely unrealistic. Being presented with various Brexit options is not people being betrayed, it is not being treated like a dickensian orphan. It's living in the real world where things are complicated, some people wanted things you did not, and compromise was going happen in some areas.

    I'm not angry at the 'betrayal'. You are the one who wants no Brexit rather than some Brexit, and you talk of betrayal of the leave vote as though it only occurs when you don't get what you want out of Brexit?

    Some of us wanted Brexit to happen. Not at any cost, or in any way. How can you call various other options a betrayal when you make the exact same calculation that leads to those options, namely 'I will not accept Brexit X, it must be Brexit Y or no Brexit'?

    You seem to think it is only fair to reject options when they are the ones you do not want.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    You think 17.4 million Brexit voters are going to roll over and play dead if Brexit is stopped by Parliamentary shenanigans?

    The best opporunity is when we have a leaver as PM.
    Quite a lot of them are dead already to be replace by Remainers who are not living in the past.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Only if you accept their premise that we were not really leaving at all. How many of them actually believe that (Sean F points out info which gives us reason to doubt all of them do)? And given how angry so many remainers and soft Brexiters have been with the government's plans, it certainly is not BINO, since things are about to get a lot more BINOy.

    That's not true. Remainers who haven't reconciled to the fact they lost in 2014 are upset but that doesn't mean it is not BINO.

    The only MPs objecting to this deal are MPs who think it is BINO, MPs who oppose it because they hate the Tories, and MPs who oppose it because they want to Remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    Yes, Farage obviously can't wait to cry 'betrayal' again and Cash and Redwood were already having withdrawal symptoms about complaining about the EU, they are made to be rant against the EU, not to suggest any viable alternative
    You all miss the point. If you are a mouth foamer you can't vote for May's deal to secure Brexit. As May's deal isn't Brexit. It's a Betrayal and a deception. So no, they can't fall back into line to vote to leave the EU as if they vote to leave the EU it means we don't leave the EU
    May's Deal leaves the EU, the SM and the CU once a trade deal is agreed, it was the best Brexit Deal on the table, by refusing it they may end up with the UK back in the EU, the CU and the SM
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    So be it.

    I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.

    F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
    It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?
    That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.

    I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...
    Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?
    Did we make a decision to cross the railway lines already? If there's an oncoming train then cross at a different point or at a time that suits us.
    No. Of course we didn't vote for leaving without a deal.
    We voted to Leave.

    If we can get a deal before we leave, great. If we can't oh well.
    Gove told the cabinet No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum result.

    He knows No Deal screws the voters and ensures we Rejoin PDQ.
    If that happens so be it, that would be democratic at least.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    Yes, Farage obviously can't wait to cry 'betrayal' again and Cash and Redwood were already having withdrawal symptoms about complaining about the EU, they are made to be rant against the EU, not to suggest any viable alternative
    You all miss the point. If you are a mouth foamer you can't vote for May's deal to secure Brexit. As May's deal isn't Brexit. It's a Betrayal and a deception. So no, they can't fall back into line to vote to leave the EU as if they vote to leave the EU it means we don't leave the EU
    May's Deal leaves the EU, the SM and the CU once a trade deal is agreed, it was the best Brexit Deal on the table, by refusing it they may end up with the UK back in the EU, the CU and the SM
    Bah humbug, it leaves us permanently tied into the CU unless or until the EU decides its happy for us to leave.
  • This is the point! Masterton votes to leave the EU - the question on the referendum paper - as is savaged by angry mouth foamer incensed that he has betrayed the referendum paper by not voting to leave the EU.

    These people are fucking stupid. Is it any wonder our MPs have no clue how they are to proceed? May's deal is shit. But it is Brexit as defined by the referendum question. So why are so many foamers so incensed that a vote for the deal is a Betrayal of Brexit?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Artist said:

    I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way . Likewise a lot of remain voters will be wondering what is the point of leaving at all under this arrangement. The press will absolutely lay into it.

    Hence we will end with a CM2 v Remain referendum
    wishful thinking
    Maybe so, but unlike the ERG's, it is at least an achievable wish.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    How do you see the general election being called?
    if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017
    Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?
    the ERG and DUP will vote with the opposition if it prevents BINO
    Early election motion needs 415 support for the 2/3 supermajority. It would presumably get full support from LAB 240, SNP 35, 11 TIG, 11 LD, 4 PC and 1 G. Any DUP? Probably not. So it still needs almost 130 Con to get across the line. File under 'not happening' unless the PM calls for it. And she won't.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,721
    Chris_A said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    You think 17.4 million Brexit voters are going to roll over and play dead if Brexit is stopped by Parliamentary shenanigans?

    The best opporunity is when we have a leaver as PM.
    Quite a lot of them are dead already to be replace by Remainers who are not living in the past.
    4 leavers in my house are fine with #CorbynsCustomsUnion
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Only if you accept their premise that we were not really leaving at all. How many of them actually believe that (Sean F points out info which gives us reason to doubt all of them do)? And given how angry so many remainers and soft Brexiters have been with the government's plans, it certainly is not BINO, since things are about to get a lot more BINOy.

    That's not true. Remainers who haven't reconciled to the fact they lost in 2014 are upset but that doesn't mean it is not BINO.

    You make me laugh. There are far far softer options than the deal. If you start throwing around the BINO term at it, we lack the terminology for what those others are. Even BINOer?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    So be it.

    I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.

    F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
    It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?
    That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.

    I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...
    Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?
    Did we make a decision to cross the railway lines already? If there's an oncoming train then cross at a different point or at a time that suits us.
    No. Of course we didn't vote for leaving without a deal.
    We voted to Leave.

    If we can get a deal before we leave, great. If we can't oh well.
    Others voted to Leave to renegotiate in the expectation we would end up staying. Your vote isn't worth more than theirs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IanB2 said:

    Artist said:

    I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way . Likewise a lot of remain voters will be wondering what is the point of leaving at all under this arrangement. The press will absolutely lay into it.

    Hence we will end with a CM2 v Remain referendum
    This seems like a pretty plausible outcome.

    Followed, sigh, by a GE.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,721
    Drutt said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    How do you see the general election being called?
    if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017
    Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?
    the ERG and DUP will vote with the opposition if it prevents BINO
    Early election motion needs 415 support for the 2/3 supermajority. It would presumably get full support from LAB 240, SNP 35, 11 TIG, 11 LD, 4 PC and 1 G. Any DUP? Probably not. So it still needs almost 130 Con to get across the line. File under 'not happening' unless the PM calls for it. And she won't.
    TIG won't vote for it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    Yes, Farage obviously can't wait to cry 'betrayal' again and Cash and Redwood were already having withdrawal symptoms about complaining about the EU, they are made to be rant against the EU, not to suggest any viable alternative
    You all miss the point. If you are a mouth foamer you can't vote for May's deal to secure Brexit. As May's deal isn't Brexit. It's a Betrayal and a deception. So no, they can't fall back into line to vote to leave the EU as if they vote to leave the EU it means we don't leave the EU
    May's Deal leaves the EU, the SM and the CU once a trade deal is agreed, it was the best Brexit Deal on the table, by refusing it they may end up with the UK back in the EU, the CU and the SM
    Bah humbug, it leaves us permanently tied into the CU unless or until the EU decides its happy for us to leave.
    We'd be outside the EU. Referendum fulfilled.

    You are really asking for a more specific question. Why don't we go ahead and ask one?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    So be it.

    I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.

    F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
    I believe that was the Osborne plan in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland certainly, for Barnier or Selmayr read Osborne in 2014
    Something which would have given satisfaction to non-Scots in the short term, but which would have generated intense ill feeling longer term.
    As do most divorces
    If you want a continued long-term relationship with someone (as we should surely want with an independent Scotland) it makes sense to ensure that relationship is harmonious. I'm sure we could crucify Scotland economically, but would that really ensure an agreement on defence and security, for example?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    So be it.

    I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.

    F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
    It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?
    That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.

    I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...
    Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?
    Did we make a decision to cross the railway lines already? If there's an oncoming train then cross at a different point or at a time that suits us.
    No. Of course we didn't vote for leaving without a deal.
    We voted to Leave.

    If we can get a deal before we leave, great. If we can't oh well.
    Others voted to Leave to renegotiate in the expectation we would end up staying. Your vote isn't worth more than theirs.
    and you know this how?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Chris_A said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    You think 17.4 million Brexit voters are going to roll over and play dead if Brexit is stopped by Parliamentary shenanigans?

    The best opporunity is when we have a leaver as PM.
    Quite a lot of them are dead already to be replace by Remainers who are not living in the past.
    Is it really necessary to go there? When people make comments like this do they think they are being provocative, making some funny or insightful or compelling point? It just makes people look awful.



  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    As you have pointed out the vote was for leave, and that was it. Expectations in many areas would be high, and it would be very disappointing not to get that. But expecting to get everything you want? That is completely unrealistic. Being presented with various Brexit options is not people being betrayed, it is not being treated like a dickensian orphan. It's living in the real world where things are complicated, some people wanted things you did not, and compromise was going happen in some areas.

    I'm not angry at the 'betrayal'. You are the one who wants no Brexit rather than some Brexit, and you talk of betrayal of the leave vote as though it only occurs when you don't get what you want out of Brexit?

    Some of us wanted Brexit to happen. Not at any cost, or in any way. How can you call various other options a betrayal when you make the exact same calculation that leads to those options, namely 'I will not accept Brexit X, it must be Brexit Y or no Brexit'?

    You seem to think it is only fair to reject options when they are the ones you do not want.

    No I'm not saying only my Brexit is a real Brexit. I've resigned to the fact we're not getting my Brexit - though I still think we should have if we'd had a half-decent PM and half-decent Parliament. My Brexit was for a good and fair deal without any permanent commitments like the backstop. I've been calling all along for a renegotiated deal to be passed but the EU has gone all in. So be it, so shall we.

    If my preferred Brexit is not an option I'm prepared to reluctantly accept another type of Brexit. Like no deal. Its not what I want but its all that is left.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    In 1978 a civil engineering student at Princeton University called Diane Hartley asked a question to design engineer Joel Weinstein. As a result structural engineer William LeMessurier rechecked his calculations and found he'd made a mistake. As a result of this mistake the Citigroup Center office tower in New York City was vulnerable to collapse in high winds, killing thousands of people. And hurricane season was about to start.

    By recognising that a problem existed, calculating a plan to overcome it, devoting the resources to execute it, then executing it until done, they saved over a billion 1978 dollars in damage and thousands of lives.

    And absolutely nobody went on telly and bleated about their principles and how they were offended.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv2YQnT6pSo
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Artist said:

    I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way . Likewise a lot of remain voters will be wondering what is the point of leaving at all under this arrangement. The press will absolutely lay into it.

    Hence we will end with a CM2 v Remain referendum
    This seems like a pretty plausible outcome.

    Followed, sigh, by a GE.
    Equally it could follow a GE, especially one the Tories manage to lose.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1110322826270121987

    Absolutely!

    If we No Deal, the circus will distract the populace from their lack of bread...
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    MPs in charge of business? Here’s Wednesday’s order paper:

    Pay rise for Nanny - Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Fraternal twinning agreement with Caracas - Mr Jeremy Corbyn
    Purchase of badger-proof goalposts - Mr Owen Paterson
    Provision of a free owl* for each voter - Mr Ed Miliband

    The House will rise at 11.45am having done its day’s work. No, wait a minute fellas, we forgot to solve the whole Brexit mess like we said we would on Monday. Oh well.. bar’s open!

    *innocent times
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    As you have pointed out the vote was for leave, and that was it. Expectations in many areas would be high, and it would be very disappointing not to get that. But expecting to get everything you want? That is completely unrealistic. Being presented with various Brexit options is not people being betrayed, it is not being treated like a dickensian orphan. It's living in the real world where things are complicated, some people wanted things you did not, and compromise was going happen in some areas.

    I'm not angry at the 'betrayal'. You are the one who wants no Brexit rather than some Brexit, and you talk of betrayal of the leave vote as though it only occurs when you don't get what you want out of Brexit?

    Some of us wanted Brexit to happen. Not at any cost, or in any way. How can you call various other options a betrayal when you make the exact same calculation that leads to those options, namely 'I will not accept Brexit X, it must be Brexit Y or no Brexit'?

    You seem to think it is only fair to reject options when they are the ones you do not want.

    No I'm not saying only my Brexit is a real Brexit. I've resigned to the fact we're not getting my Brexit - though I still think we should have if we'd had a half-decent PM and half-decent Parliament. My Brexit was for a good and fair deal without any permanent commitments like the backstop. I've been calling all along for a renegotiated deal to be passed but the EU has gone all in. So be it, so shall we.

    If my preferred Brexit is not an option I'm prepared to reluctantly accept another type of Brexit. Like no deal. Its not what I want but its all that is left.
    And yet you castigate those who are prepared to reluctantly accept other types of Brexit, different from yours, calling it no Brexit or BINO. If you are allowed to accept your non perfect options, why cannot others without attempting to unconvincingly delegitimise their compromise position?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Only if you accept their premise that we were not really leaving at all. How many of them actually believe that (Sean F points out info which gives us reason to doubt all of them do)? And given how angry so many remainers and soft Brexiters have been with the government's plans, it certainly is not BINO, since things are about to get a lot more BINOy.

    That's not true. Remainers who haven't reconciled to the fact they lost in 2014 are upset but that doesn't mean it is not BINO.

    You make me laugh. There are far far softer options than the deal. If you start throwing around the BINO term at it, we lack the terminology for what those others are. Even BINOer?
    Since the name is all there was on the ballot paper, BINO delivers the referendum by definition. Brexit means Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    kjohnw said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    So be it.

    I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.

    F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
    It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?
    That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.

    I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...
    Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?
    Did we make a decision to cross the railway lines already? If there's an oncoming train then cross at a different point or at a time that suits us.
    No. Of course we didn't vote for leaving without a deal.
    We voted to Leave.

    If we can get a deal before we leave, great. If we can't oh well.
    Others voted to Leave to renegotiate in the expectation we would end up staying. Your vote isn't worth more than theirs.
    and you know this how?
    Because they said so.

    "If we vote Brexit and out, we won't leave. I'm confident logic says that there'll be another renegotiation and there'll be reforms offered. So for those reasons 'I'm out', so I can stay in."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWKtoG_a_hE
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_P said:
    The minds of the skeptics is already concentrated, or nothing will concentrate them. There's now nothing fo them to concentrate on. If the government cannot get a majority on handling the business of the house, it certainly will not overcome that to supporting its deal.

    The government is over on this issue, it is free vote time and attempt to implement whatever the house comes up with.

    Night all.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    Chris_A said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    You think 17.4 million Brexit voters are going to roll over and play dead if Brexit is stopped by Parliamentary shenanigans?

    The best opporunity is when we have a leaver as PM.
    Quite a lot of them are dead already to be replace by Remainers who are not living in the past.
    4 leavers in my house are fine with #CorbynsCustomsUnion
    Do they support #CorbynsLabourParty ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Scott_P said:
    Wonder how high up Jezza is on Sir Kier's hit list? :D
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Chris_A said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    You think 17.4 million Brexit voters are going to roll over and play dead if Brexit is stopped by Parliamentary shenanigans?

    The best opporunity is when we have a leaver as PM.
    Quite a lot of them are dead already to be replace by Remainers who are not living in the past.
    4 leavers in my house are fine with #CorbynsCustomsUnion
    Do they support #CorbynsLabourParty ?
    do they buy the Morning Star?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Scott_P said:
    Would put Labour on the spot. Starmer was clinging onto the right to whip Labour on the indicative votes earlier.

    Any sensible person can see that a process like that needs to be open and free if it is to be meaningful and work properly.

    Yet both Tory and Labour Parties want to cling onto the whip,

    Which will see sense first and embarrass the other?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wonder how high up Jezza is on Sir Kier's hit list? :D
    lol :)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    viewcode said:

    In 1978 a civil engineering student at Princeton University called Diane Hartley asked a question to design engineer Joel Weinstein. As a result structural engineer William LeMessurier rechecked his calculations and found he'd made a mistake. As a result of this mistake the Citigroup Center office tower in New York City was vulnerable to collapse in high winds, killing thousands of people. And hurricane season was about to start.

    By recognising that a problem existed, calculating a plan to overcome it, devoting the resources to execute it, then executing it until done, they saved over a billion 1978 dollars in damage and thousands of lives.

    And absolutely nobody went on telly and bleated about their principles and how they were offended.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv2YQnT6pSo

    That's inspiring, but why does it relate to principles and offence?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Only if you accept their premise that we were not really leaving at all. How many of them actually believe that (Sean F points out info which gives us reason to doubt all of them do)? And given how angry so many remainers and soft Brexiters have been with the government's plans, it certainly is not BINO, since things are about to get a lot more BINOy.

    That's not true. Remainers who haven't reconciled to the fact they lost in 2014 are upset but that doesn't mean it is not BINO.

    You make me laugh. There are far far softer options than the deal. If you start throwing around the BINO term at it, we lack the terminology for what those others are. Even BINOer?
    Since the name is all there was on the ballot paper, BINO delivers the referendum by definition. Brexit means Brexit.
    Well quite. Even before I switched position around December onwards it was notable that it is usually harder leavers who push the line for no deal that all that was on the ballot paper was Brexit, which includes no deal. Which is true. But it also means every other Brexit is still Brexit, as you say. You cannot deploy that argument that no deal Brexit is Brexit without Brexit in name only also still being Brexit.

    That's when you get into arguments, legitimate arguments, about whether the Brexit delivered meets what are considered to be the concerns that led to the Brexit vote, but then you just open the door to needing to think of the people who did not vote Brexit as they must be looked after too, it opens the door to criticism of comments which played down no deal.

    So to my mind people get into problems when they try to boil it down as simply as the 'name on the ballot paper' argument. Very quickly it is easy to undermine that stance.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    Drutt said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    How do you see the general election being called?
    if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017
    Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?
    the ERG and DUP will vote with the opposition if it prevents BINO
    Early election motion needs 415 support for the 2/3 supermajority. It would presumably get full support from LAB 240, SNP 35, 11 TIG, 11 LD, 4 PC and 1 G. Any DUP? Probably not. So it still needs almost 130 Con to get across the line. File under 'not happening' unless the PM calls for it. And she won't.
    TIG won't vote for it.
    Quite right. Not enough three-way-marginal constituencies in heavily Remain areas for them all to have a punt at.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1110322826270121987

    Absolutely!

    If we No Deal, the circus will distract the populace from their lack of bread...

    That sounds rather like Andrew Adonis threatening civil servants.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    kjohnw said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    So be it.

    I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.

    F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
    It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?
    That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.

    I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...
    Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?
    Did we make a decision to cross the railway lines already? If there's an oncoming train then cross at a different point or at a time that suits us.
    No. Of course we didn't vote for leaving without a deal.
    We voted to Leave.

    If we can get a deal before we leave, great. If we can't oh well.
    Others voted to Leave to renegotiate in the expectation we would end up staying. Your vote isn't worth more than theirs.
    and you know this how?
    Because they said so.

    "If we vote Brexit and out, we won't leave. I'm confident logic says that there'll be another renegotiation and there'll be reforms offered. So for those reasons 'I'm out', so I can stay in."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWKtoG_a_hE
    That's one man's (Theo Paphitis) opinion. If we're going use the plural "they" over the singular third person then we need to identify two people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    MPs in charge of business? Here’s Wednesday’s order paper:

    Pay rise for Nanny - Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Fraternal twinning agreement with Caracas - Mr Jeremy Corbyn
    Purchase of badger-proof goalposts - Mr Owen Paterson
    Provision of a free owl* for each voter - Mr Ed Miliband

    The House will rise at 11.45am having done its day’s work. No, wait a minute fellas, we forgot to solve the whole Brexit mess like we said we would on Monday. Oh well.. bar’s open!

    *innocent times

    Bless you :)
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Artist said:

    I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way . Likewise a lot of remain voters will be wondering what is the point of leaving at all under this arrangement. The press will absolutely lay into it.

    Hence we will end with a CM2 v Remain referendum
    This seems like a pretty plausible outcome.

    Followed, sigh, by a GE.
    Equally it could follow a GE, especially one the Tories manage to lose.
    Manage to lose? I'll be amazed if the manage to even keep pace with Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Would put Labour on the spot. Starmer was clinging onto the right to whip Labour on the indicative votes earlier.

    Any sensible person can see that a process like that needs to be open and free if it is to be meaningful and work properly.

    Yet both Tory and Labour Parties want to cling onto the whip,

    Which will see sense first and embarrass the other?
    Up to point. I think that the Conservatives should offer a free vote for any form of Brexit.

    But, they should apply the whip on Revoke or Second Referendum, as the government could not deliver any such outcomes, and any MP's who back such outcomes need to know that they're voting to change the government.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    kle4 said:

    MPs in charge of business? Here’s Wednesday’s order paper:

    Pay rise for Nanny - Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Fraternal twinning agreement with Caracas - Mr Jeremy Corbyn
    Purchase of badger-proof goalposts - Mr Owen Paterson
    Provision of a free owl* for each voter - Mr Ed Miliband

    The House will rise at 11.45am having done its day’s work. No, wait a minute fellas, we forgot to solve the whole Brexit mess like we said we would on Monday. Oh well.. bar’s open!

    *innocent times

    Bless you :)
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Artist said:

    I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way . Likewise a lot of remain voters will be wondering what is the point of leaving at all under this arrangement. The press will absolutely lay into it.

    Hence we will end with a CM2 v Remain referendum
    This seems like a pretty plausible outcome.

    Followed, sigh, by a GE.
    Equally it could follow a GE, especially one the Tories manage to lose.
    Manage to lose? I'll be amazed if the manage to even keep pace with Labour.
    Have you seen Labour's and Corbyn's favourability ratings?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Pulpstar said:

    kjohnw said:


    Others voted to Leave to renegotiate in the expectation we would end up staying. Your vote isn't worth more than theirs.

    and you know this how?
    Because they said so.

    "If we vote Brexit and out, we won't leave. I'm confident logic says that there'll be another renegotiation and there'll be reforms offered. So for those reasons 'I'm out', so I can stay in."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWKtoG_a_hE
    That's one man's (Theo Paphitis) opinion. If we're going use the plural "they" over the singular third person then we need to identify two people.
    Boris Johnson

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11953156/EU-Referendum-David-Cameron-turns-to-UN-to-secure-deal.html

    Last night, one of the Prime Minister’s most senior aides made an outspoken attack on eurosceptics who have argued that Mr Cameron could get a better deal if the UK voted to leave the EU first - and then held another negotiation, followed by a second referendum.

    The senior Number 10 figure said it was “ridiculous” to suggest that Mr Cameron would be willing to countenance a second referendum.

    It will be seen as a rebuke in particular to Boris Johnson, who is believed to back the idea, and Dominic Cummings, Michael Gove’s former adviser, who is now helping to run the Out campaign, Vote Leave.

    Mr Johnson, the Mayor of London, is said to have told friends that he wanted the public to vote to leave the EU because this would force Brussels to offer far better terms which the public could then support in a second referendum.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Bizarely Mays deal has a better chance of getting through.

    The government wanted to lose this vote . Ignore the faux outrage . Mays deal lives on .
  • IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Would put Labour on the spot. Starmer was clinging onto the right to whip Labour on the indicative votes earlier.

    Any sensible person can see that a process like that needs to be open and free if it is to be meaningful and work properly.

    Yet both Tory and Labour Parties want to cling onto the whip,

    Which will see sense first and embarrass the other?
    But how free are "free votes" when future leadership contenders (of both parties) will be taking notes?
  • kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    You think 17.4 million Brexit voters are going to roll over and play dead if Brexit is stopped by Parliamentary shenanigans?

    The best opporunity is when we have a leaver as PM.
    You need to make Corbyn PM then.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    edited March 2019
    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    viewcode said:

    In 1978 a civil engineering student at Princeton University called Diane Hartley asked a question to design engineer Joel Weinstein. As a result structural engineer William LeMessurier rechecked his calculations and found he'd made a mistake. As a result of this mistake the Citigroup Center office tower in New York City was vulnerable to collapse in high winds, killing thousands of people. And hurricane season was about to start.

    By recognising that a problem existed, calculating a plan to overcome it, devoting the resources to execute it, then executing it until done, they saved over a billion 1978 dollars in damage and thousands of lives.

    And absolutely nobody went on telly and bleated about their principles and how they were offended.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv2YQnT6pSo

    That's inspiring, but why does it relate to principles and offence?
    Actually it's a sensible question. There are a couple of cases over time where remedial action was implemented: even in a disaster people can band together to make things better. There's the Citicorp Tower, the Sioux City United Airlines Flight 232 crash, even things like the Boy Scouts burying the dead in the Libyan Civil War. These things are characterised by rapid acknowledgement of the problem, emphasis in finding solutions and implementing them rapidly. Brown's actions during the 2008 financial crisis mirror this: he knew what the problem was, he had a plan to fix it, and could rapidly implement it. Reagan pointed out that you can get a lot done if you don't care who gets the credit. The MPs, with their (by definition) partisan approach and preference for assigning blame, instead of seeking a solution, stand in contradistinction to this.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    The Commons is going to end up concluding that it least hates May's Deal, and then refusing to vote for it anyway, isn't it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I've changed my mind about a general election. I now think we need to have one this year.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Remember when Gove won another battle against his conscience to pivot from hard Brexiteer to a softer, loyalist, collegiate, do a deal, any deal, 'whatever' Brexit, and we all had a chuckle at his expense? Well, he's two years ahead of us (and I include me in us), and that's why in two months' time we're doing the bantz here and he's the Chancellor.

    Back the deal or lose it, ERG.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Are there enough votes to trigger an election? 30 Tory mp's after today will be deselected and the tiggers certainly don't want election soon. That's 40+ votes that won't vote NC. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Drutt said:

    Remember when Gove won another battle against his conscience to pivot from hard Brexiteer to a softer, loyalist, collegiate, do a deal, any deal, 'whatever' Brexit, and we all had a chuckle at his expense? Well, he's two years ahead of us (and I include me in us), and that's why in two months' time we're doing the bantz here and he's the Chancellor.

    Back the deal or lose it, ERG.

    Are you not angry that Gove led you down the garden path in the first place by campaigning for something he didn’t understand and wasn’t deliverable?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    AndyJS said:

    I've changed my mind about a general election. I now think we need to have one this year.

    Indeed. The Tories have totally lost the plot.

    I'm willing to try a Corbyn government and that's where my vote will be going at the next available opportunity.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
    Yes, Farage obviously can't wait to cry 'betrayal' again and Cash and Redwood were already having withdrawal symptoms about complaining about the EU, they are made to be rant against the EU, not to suggest any viable alternative
    You all miss the point. If you are a mouth foamer you can't vote for May's deal to secure Brexit. As May's deal isn't Brexit. It's a Betrayal and a deception. So no, they can't fall back into line to vote to leave the EU as if they vote to leave the EU it means we don't leave the EU
    May's Deal leaves the EU, the SM and the CU once a trade deal is agreed, it was the best Brexit Deal on the table, by refusing it they may end up with the UK back in the EU, the CU and the SM
    Bah humbug, it leaves us permanently tied into the CU unless or until the EU decides its happy for us to leave.
    It leaves the UK in broadly the same position as Switzerland, only without the fees or the freedom of movement.

    How long before Switzerland and Norway start demanding that they pay our level of fees? Or that they can leave FoM?

    The backstop is at least as uncomfortable for the EU as for us. *And* we get internnational mediation if we think they aren't keeping up with their treaty obligations to implement a technical solution.

    Also: you've spoken on the board about having voted Remain. And yet today you've said you voted Leave. Which one is it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.

    On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited March 2019
    saddo said:

    Are there enough votes to trigger an election? 30 Tory mp's after today will be deselected and the tiggers certainly don't want election soon. That's 40+ votes that won't vote NC. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas

    Who knows! We know the "People's Vote" lobby are keen to avoid actually giving people a vote when it means their own position may be at risk... ;)

    But personally I think with Labour whipped to vote for a GE and the majority of Tories voting for it too it probably would pass.

    Of course the other way of the government VONC itself and both Lab and Con let the clock tick down by not attempting to form a government (that maybe the best option as it would give Con time to swap Theresa May for another leader to lead them into the election)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    So be it.

    I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.

    F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
    I believe that was the Osborne plan in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland certainly, for Barnier or Selmayr read Osborne in 2014
    Something which would have given satisfaction to non-Scots in the short term, but which would have generated intense ill feeling longer term.
    As do most divorces
    If you want a continued long-term relationship with someone (as we should surely want with an independent Scotland) it makes sense to ensure that relationship is harmonious. I'm sure we could crucify Scotland economically, but would that really ensure an agreement on defence and security, for example?
    I would not be so sure we would crucify Scotland economically, especially if they took most of the oil though of course we are their largest market
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    HYUFD said:
    It does make sense, you just have to understand that the goal of the ERG and the DUP isn't a particular policy outcome, it's to maintain a state of permanent patriotic indignation.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    So does Letwin get to unilaterally decide on the voting system? Because with that power you can pretty much choose which one is going to win.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
    Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
    So be it.

    I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.

    F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
    I believe that was the Osborne plan in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland certainly, for Barnier or Selmayr read Osborne in 2014
    Something which would have given satisfaction to non-Scots in the short term, but which would have generated intense ill feeling longer term.
    As do most divorces
    If you want a continued long-term relationship with someone (as we should surely want with an independent Scotland) it makes sense to ensure that relationship is harmonious. I'm sure we could crucify Scotland economically, but would that really ensure an agreement on defence and security, for example?
    I would not be so sure we would crucify Scotland economically, especially if they took most of the oil though of course we are their largest market
    Last I heard the oil was actually a net drain on the public purse.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.

    On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
    Yes except that May's deal will beat second ref in those circumstances.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2019

    So does Letwin get to unilaterally decide on the voting system? Because with that power you can pretty much choose which one is going to win.

    So there we have it, after 3 years of endless negotiation and marches and votes in Parliament the future of Brexit is dependant on what Oliver Letwin thinks up in his bathtub this weekend!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Norm said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.

    On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
    Yes except that May's deal will beat second ref in those circumstances.
    Will be funny if after everything May's deal wins through indicative votes. :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.

    On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
    Running through the numbers, I think either of them ends up with 280-290 votes max. Neither Revoke nor No Deal will pick up additional votes, but some No Dealers will abstain at the end.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've changed my mind about a general election. I now think we need to have one this year.

    Indeed. The Tories have totally lost the plot.

    I'm willing to try a Corbyn government and that's where my vote will be going at the next available opportunity.
    A Corbyn government of course guarantees BINO or EUref2
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703

    So does Letwin get to unilaterally decide on the voting system? Because with that power you can pretty much choose which one is going to win.

    You’re saying in that scenario he has the power to let something win?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    You think 17.4 million Brexit voters are going to roll over and play dead if Brexit is stopped by Parliamentary shenanigans?

    At least 1m of them already have but they are not playing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    GIN1138 said:

    Norm said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.

    On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
    Yes except that May's deal will beat second ref in those circumstances.
    Will be funny if after everything May's deal wins through indicative votes. :D
    It could, before being promptly voted down, because it falls short of a majority.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've changed my mind about a general election. I now think we need to have one this year.

    Indeed. The Tories have totally lost the plot.

    I'm willing to try a Corbyn government and that's where my vote will be going at the next available opportunity.
    A Corbyn government of course guarantees BINO or EUref2
    Yes. Saturday nights shenanigans basically put me to the point where I'm beyond caring really...

    I just want this torture to end and the Tories to be eviscerated for ******* everything up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    AndyJS said:
    I think Trump's chances of reelection have taken a meaningful move upwards. The economy is humming - thanks to massive tax cuts last year - and Mueller's threat is much reduced. (Albeit, I wouldn't be surprised if the devil is in the details and the slow drip-drip does him little good.)

    But I suspect that if Trump wins again in 2020, it will be "the election they wish they hadn't won". It would likely see a serious hollowing out of the Republicans at a state level over the next six years - a sort of reverse of what happened to the Democrats over the last decade as they lost statehouses and governorships across the country.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    NeilVW said:

    So does Letwin get to unilaterally decide on the voting system? Because with that power you can pretty much choose which one is going to win.

    You’re saying in that scenario he has the power to let something win?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tlXwlIC4dQ
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Norm said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.

    On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
    Yes except that May's deal will beat second ref in those circumstances.
    Possibly, possibly not I would make it 50 50 either way, depends on Tory Remainers voting for EUref2 or Labour MPs from Leave seats voting for May's Deal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.

    On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
    Running through the numbers, I think either of them ends up with 280-290 votes max. Neither Revoke nor No Deal will pick up additional votes, but some No Dealers will abstain at the end.
    Single Market and or Customs Union could get to 326 but they may not make the final 2
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've changed my mind about a general election. I now think we need to have one this year.

    Indeed. The Tories have totally lost the plot.

    I'm willing to try a Corbyn government and that's where my vote will be going at the next available opportunity.
    A Corbyn government of course guarantees BINO or EUref2
    Yes. Saturday nights shenanigans basically put me to the point where I'm beyond caring really...

    I just want this torture to end and the Tories to be eviscerated for ******* everything up.
    The Tories won't be eviscerated, most Tory MPs voted for May's Deal, to keep No Deal on the Table, against extending Article 50 and against indicative votes, it is Labour, LD, SNP MPs and a few Tory rebels from the ERG and the Remain wing who have led us to where we are
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.

    On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
    Running through the numbers, I think either of them ends up with 280-290 votes max. Neither Revoke nor No Deal will pick up additional votes, but some No Dealers will abstain at the end.
    Single Market and or Customs Union could get to 326 but they may not make the final 2
    I expect they start too far behind. If one of them managed to stay in the race, it could pick up lots of votes.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited March 2019
    With a return to the limelight of "Mr Poll Tax" himself I Wonder how "Two Brains No Sense" Willits fits in to all of this? :D
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    What happens if TM deal wins on indicative vote but then falls on actual vote. With all other options eliminated doesn’t that mean we leave with no deal
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    Drutt said:

    Remember when Gove won another battle against his conscience to pivot from hard Brexiteer to a softer, loyalist, collegiate, do a deal, any deal, 'whatever' Brexit, and we all had a chuckle at his expense? Well, he's two years ahead of us (and I include me in us), and that's why in two months' time we're doing the bantz here and he's the Chancellor.

    Back the deal or lose it, ERG.

    Are you not angry that Gove led you down the garden path in the first place by campaigning for something he didn’t understand and wasn’t deliverable?

    I've been Eurosceptic enough to have voted leave since sometime between Maastricht and Factortame. Michael Gove wrote for a local paper then, but it was a local paper 400 miles from where I lived, so any influence will have been minimal and accordingly any anger would be misplaced.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Sean_F said:


    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50


    Given all things Brexit in the HoC seem to be governed by Sod's law, we'll probably end up with a six-way tie.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kjohnw said:

    What happens if TM deal wins on indicative vote but then falls on actual vote. With all other options eliminated doesn’t that mean we leave with no deal

    Surely to god they’d vote for it if it won the indicative vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Andrew said:

    Sean_F said:


    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50


    Given all things Brexit in the HoC seem to be governed by Sod's law, we'll probably end up with a six-way tie.
    That means the speaker decides.... bugger that!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?

    I suggest:-

    Revoke 120
    Second ref 160
    May's Deal 140
    No Deal 120
    May's Deal plus Norway 50
    May's Deal plus CU 50

    That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.

    On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
    Running through the numbers, I think either of them ends up with 280-290 votes max. Neither Revoke nor No Deal will pick up additional votes, but some No Dealers will abstain at the end.
    Single Market and or Customs Union could get to 326 but they may not make the final 2
    I expect they start too far behind. If one of them managed to stay in the race, it could pick up lots of votes.
    It would depend on one of Norway Plus or permanent Customs Union being knocked out then transferring to the other then picking up votes from say revoke and then beating EUref2, No Deal or May's Deal inn the final round. Plenty for AV nerds to get excited about before Monday I suspect
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    kjohnw said:

    What happens if TM deal wins on indicative vote but then falls on actual vote. With all other options eliminated doesn’t that mean we leave with no deal

    Would be absolutely hilarious if that was the outcome and would prove what I've said all along about the folly of putting all you eggs in Letwin's basket. :D
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've changed my mind about a general election. I now think we need to have one this year.

    Indeed. The Tories have totally lost the plot.

    I'm willing to try a Corbyn government and that's where my vote will be going at the next available opportunity.
    A Corbyn government of course guarantees BINO or EUref2
    Yes. Saturday nights shenanigans basically put me to the point where I'm beyond caring really...

    I just want this torture to end and the Tories to be eviscerated for ******* everything up.
    The Tories won't be eviscerated, most Tory MPs voted for May's Deal, to keep No Deal on the Table, against extending Article 50 and against indicative votes, it is Labour, LD, SNP MPs and a few Tory rebels from the ERG and the Remain wing who have led us to where we are
    But May selected the Red Lines and failed to reach out at all until far too late.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2019
    kjohnw said:

    What happens if TM deal wins on indicative vote but then falls on actual vote. With all other options eliminated doesn’t that mean we leave with no deal

    No it means we contest the European elections and extend and May keeps proposing her Deal again and again and again until she gets a telegram from King Charles or King William on her centenary
This discussion has been closed.