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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What can we expect from the planned Brexit inquiry

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What can we expect from the planned Brexit inquiry

In January 2004 the Hutton report into Dr David Kelly’s death was awaited with anticipation. The hearings had put the actions of politicians, civil servants, journalists, senior BBC management under a forensic scrutiny they would not normally expect.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    A very meaningful backstopping first?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Second like Leave
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Interesting article, but the title seems a tad inapposite?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    The third point I consider especially relevant
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    BREXIT IS FUCKED.

    Amen.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Great news . The DUP now hoping the whole thing goes away. Also time for Brexit to be put out of its misery .
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    A wise thread header. Annoyingly my value bets on Trump getting kicked out this year turned out not to be value.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited March 2019
    And so the final confirmation arrives. Told the ERG they left it too late.

    The DUP only ever speak up it seems when any optimism over the deal emerges. They really meant it when they said they never want it. It's hard to tell because others use the same overblown rhetoric but dont necessarily follow through as much.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    YouGov are doing a survey today on the various Brexit options.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    And so the final confirmation arrives. Tom's the ERG they left it too late.
    The ERG didn't have the votes to carry this in the first place.

    May have had May not thrown away the majority of course.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Fenster said:

    BREXIT IS FUCKED.

    Amen.

    That is so true we should just log off now and go for a nice walk in the park.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    The BBC are reporting that; The exact method of indicative voting will be considered in the amendable business motion to be debated tomorrow.
    What are the chances of them agreeing a process before April 12th?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    IanB2 said:

    YouGov are doing a survey today on the various Brexit options.

    I predict a plurality for "Don't Know".
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    The number of people signing the petition in Greater London constituencies is currently 1,098,011 which is 19.2% of the total number of signatures. (Selecting the number of signatures in London as an option isn't available on the webpage so I set up a spreadsheet to do it).

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    TudorRose said:

    The BBC are reporting that; The exact method of indicative voting will be considered in the amendable business motion to be debated tomorrow.
    What are the chances of them agreeing a process before April 12th?

    Remote.

    And, if they do,. they'll probably finish up voting to refer the matter back to the government.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.
    Even assuming

    1) All signatures are unique
    2) All signatures are eligible voters
    3) All signatures are really in this constituency
    4) All signatures would vote based on this

    The number signing is still fewer than the number of Lib Dem votes in 2017, or by definition the number of Goldsmith votes in 2017
    I assume that none of those points are entirely true, nor do I assume that everyone who supports or opposes something will sign an online petition about it. I'm taking the view that assuming a reasonably large number of the signatures can be taken as genuine it is still a very large chunk of voters in his constituency, and the number of people who back something will likely be higher than the number who state it publicly.

    So your premise that the number of petition signatures is less than the number of votes he got, in counter to the idea it is significant, is fatuous and irrelevant because who would expect it to be? The question is whether there is enough of an indication from it as a demonstration of strength of feeling on this issue to think he is in trouble. There might be disagreement on that, but he has a very small majority, and whatever the actual numbers signing it is clearly a large number.
    Sure, but Goldsmith made no secret of his pro-Brexit views in 2017, and still won back a constituency that voted 70% Remain.
    FPT. In the Richmond Park by election in 2016, 1515 people voted Labour and Sarah Olney, the LD candidate overturned a 23,000 Tory majority and won by 1872 votes, thanks in part to the tactical voting by Labour supporters.

    In 2017, 5773 people voted Labour! Up from 1515. Either they were enthused by Corbyn or didn't get the message but the effect was that Sarah Olney lost by 45 votes. I don't think Labour voters will make the same mistake next time and let a Tory win.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    AndyJS said:

    The number of people signing the petition in Greater London constituencies is currently 1,098,011 which is 19.2% of the total number of signatures. (Selecting the number of signatures in London as an option isn't available on the webpage so I set up a spreadsheet to do it).

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Spreadsheets, is there anything they cannot solve? :)
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    kle4 said:

    And so the final confirmation arrives. Tom's the ERG they left it too late.
    The ERG didn't have the votes to carry this in the first place.

    May have had May not thrown away the majority of course.
    May only called that election in the first place because of the existence of the ERG. It's still all their fault.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286
    Another great header @Cyclefree - thanks!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019
    From the last thread -
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.
    Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.
    The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)
    The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there
    A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.
    Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park
    Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.
    Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

    I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

    There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    So is JRM a patriot subsuming his personal views for the greater good of Brexit.
    Or a traitor to all that is right and proper?
    Difficult to keep up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286
    AndyJS said:

    The number of people signing the petition in Greater London constituencies is currently 1,098,011 which is 19.2% of the total number of signatures. (Selecting the number of signatures in London as an option isn't available on the webpage so I set up a spreadsheet to do it).

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    I think it was you Andy who said yesterday it might get to 6m but not much more, which I disputed.

    Looks like you were right though as the rate has declined a lot and we appear to be reaching the plateau. Good call on your part.

    It's still a very big number though!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The number of people signing the petition in Greater London constituencies is currently 1,098,011 which is 19.2% of the total number of signatures. (Selecting the number of signatures in London as an option isn't available on the webpage so I set up a spreadsheet to do it).

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Spreadsheets, is there anything they cannot solve? :)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x3eiUQFPhSbuCZEBgS_jec4d-M5xcPd48e44rs707fQ/edit#gid=0
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov are doing a survey today on the various Brexit options.

    I predict a plurality for "Don't Know".
    Aka "Don't Understand"
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

    Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

    The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    From the last thread -

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.
    Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.
    The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)
    The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there
    A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.
    Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park
    Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.
    Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

    I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

    There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,
    The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.
  • Fenster said:

    The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

    Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

    The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.

    I think you underestimate the alignment of social conservatives between the DUP and the Tory party members. If the members are allowed a leadership vote expect the Tories to shift to be more conservative with a small c.
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 217
    They may have had a chat with some of their constituents and realised they were deep in it. Things have been moving very fast amongst unionist sentiment in NI. I am assured by a good friend who is an Orangeman from County Down that discussions at his lodge have included English exceptionalism and questions as to if a 'no' from the republic might save their bacon in a border poll.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    edited March 2019
    From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

    My guess:
    Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
    Streatham
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Kensington
    South Cambridgeshire

    ... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov are doing a survey today on the various Brexit options.

    I predict a plurality for "Don't Know".
    Will those being polled be provided with explanations of what each option means e.g. the customs union, a Customs union or Corbyn's special customs union where uniquely we can be in a customs union with the EU while operating our own independent trade policy?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    Too late. They are fools, the lot of them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    edited March 2019
    Fenster said:

    The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

    Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

    The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.

    The dilemma for the Tories would be whether to:

    A) Fight on May's approach to Brexit, which would keep most MPs happy and maximise the chance of winning the election, but upset activists and the ERG and make it exceedingly difficult to go for a harder Brexit afterwards, or

    B ) Fight for a hard Brexit, pleasing much of the party but losing their sensible wing and much more likely to see the Tories out of office for fear of no deal.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    Sean_F said:

    From the last thread -

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.
    Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.
    The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)
    The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there
    A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.
    Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park
    Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.
    Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

    I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

    There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,
    The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.
    He votes Tory.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286
    FPT:
    Is it going to be as bad as the disaster that was predicited on here about GDPR which has of course subsequently ground the internet to a halt stopped a lot of my unwanted spam, thank you very much?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    From the last thread -

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.
    Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.
    The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)
    The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there
    A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.
    Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park
    Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.
    Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

    I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

    There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,
    The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.
    “Priced at” =/= “worth”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.
    Even assuming

    1) All signatures are unique
    2) All signatures are eligible voters
    3) All signatures are really in this constituency
    4) All signatures would vote based on this

    The number signing is still fewer than the number of Lib Dem votes in 2017, or by definition the number of Goldsmith votes in 2017
    I assume that none of those points are entirely true, nor do I assume that everyone who supports or opposes something will sign an online petition about it. I'm taking the view that assuming a reasonably large number of the signatures can be taken as genuine it is still a very large chunk of voters in his constituency, and the number of people who back something will likely be higher than the number who state it publicly.

    So your premise that the number of petition signatures is less than the number of votes he got, in counter to the idea it is significant, is fatuous and irrelevant because who would expect it to be? The question is whether there is enough of an indication from it as a demonstration of strength of feeling on this issue to think he is in trouble. There might be disagreement on that, but he has a very small majority, and whatever the actual numbers signing it is clearly a large number.
    Sure, but Goldsmith made no secret of his pro-Brexit views in 2017, and still won back a constituency that voted 70% Remain.
    FPT. In the Richmond Park by election in 2016, 1515 people voted Labour and Sarah Olney, the LD candidate overturned a 23,000 Tory majority and won by 1872 votes, thanks in part to the tactical voting by Labour supporters.

    In 2017, 5773 people voted Labour! Up from 1515. Either they were enthused by Corbyn or didn't get the message but the effect was that Sarah Olney lost by 45 votes. I don't think Labour voters will make the same mistake next time and let a Tory win.

    I agree; it will be much easier to pull Labour supporters across now that Labour's brand is tarnished by their internal problems, the defections, and their fudge and mudge on Brexit. The risk is that TIG have been talking about standing everywhere and not looking for deals with other parties - however without more traction it is hard to see TIG making a nationwide impact away from where their MPs are standing.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Sean_F said:

    From the last thread -

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.
    Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.
    The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)
    The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there
    A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.
    Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park
    Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.
    Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

    I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

    There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,
    The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.
    Just looked on street view - there are some right monstrosities on that road.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

    My guess:
    Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
    Streatham
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Kensington
    South Cambridgeshire

    ... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

    Isn’t it S(ain)t Reatham now?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

    My guess:
    Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
    Streatham
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Kensington
    South Cambridgeshire

    ... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

    why Finchley?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    edited March 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the last thread -

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    first place.
    Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.
    The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)
    The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there
    A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.
    Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park
    Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.
    Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house below that on the pecking order

    I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

    There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,
    The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.
    Just looked on street view - there are some right monstrosities on that road.
    There certainly are. Hideous mock Tudor, mock Greek temple, mock palatial. The worst architecture west of Chigwell. And some very angry motorists at school pick up time. Always tons of building work going on due to the latest oligarch excavating a basement, the road strewn with sand and dust.

    The BBC rented a house up there for at least one of the Apprentice series.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

    My guess:
    Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
    Streatham
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Kensington
    South Cambridgeshire

    ... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

    As mentioned on that thread I think Ealing Central & Acton would or should be a target. Depending upon how the Cons leadership battle goes I might be applying to represent the Tiggers there myself.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

    My guess:
    Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
    Streatham
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Kensington
    South Cambridgeshire

    ... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

    I can't see Labour losing Streatham even with a strong TIG challenge from Ummuna.
  • The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286
    IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

    Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

    The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.

    The dilemma for the Tories would be whether to:

    A) Fight on May's approach to Brexit, which would keep most MPs happy and maximise the chance of winning the election, but upset activists and the ERG and make it exceedingly difficult to go for a harder Brexit afterwards, or

    B ) Fight for a hard Brexit, pleasing much of the party but losing their sensible wing and much more likely to see the Tories out of office for fear of no deal.
    Well summarised. It's a lovely dilemma (for the Tories to have to face). :lol:
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    Fenster said:

    The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

    Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

    The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.

    Exactly. For the DUP it is the backstop. Forced to choose whether to throw Brexit or the backstop under the bus it will be Brexit that loses out. The backstop is totemic to the DUP's commitment to their sectarian base and refusal to contemplate any change to the relationship between the UK and the Irish republic. Their base cares much more about that than Brexit.

    A fact that has been clear all along, and if the ERG had more than half Karen Bradley's brain between them they would have worked out that contracting out their decision on the deal to the DUP would lead them to the position in which they now find themselves.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    If you live in a safe seat and your vote is wasted, it doesn't matter how big or small it is.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT 188bet is closing

    You might want to check if you have any antepost bets on, say, the next Prime Minister.

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/competitive-marketplace-is-blamed-as-188bet-cease-trading-in-britain-and-ireland/372708
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Are the ERG slowly working out that the DUP aren't really on their side ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    dixiedean said:

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.
    Here it is:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/bulletins/electoralstatisticsforuk/2018
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    Or the pollsters are failing to recruit leave voters to their samples.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

    My guess:
    Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
    Streatham
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Kensington
    South Cambridgeshire

    ... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

    why Finchley?
    High petition signature level plus the antisemitism issues that forced some TIGgers out.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    dixiedean said:

    So is JRM a patriot subsuming his personal views for the greater good of Brexit.
    Or a traitor to all that is right and proper?
    Difficult to keep up.

    Probably neither. He is just a failed, bedwetting little Mummy's boy who overplayed his hand.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    AndyJS said:

    dixiedean said:

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.
    Here it is:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/bulletins/electoralstatisticsforuk/2018
    Ta very much!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?
    The passing of the Great Reform Act.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019
    http://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1110536673492942850

    ..so they're simply postponing any conflict or decision.

    Time is too short for this sort of front and charade.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    dixiedean said:

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.
    Slightly makes a mockery of one person/one vote. Our system is broken, it needs drastic reform. The idea that we have the right to moan about those pesky undemocratic Europeans is an absolute joke.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

    My guess:
    Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
    Streatham
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Kensington
    South Cambridgeshire

    ... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

    why Finchley?
    High petition signature level plus the antisemitism issues that forced some TIGgers out.
    Ironically, customary demographic analysis treats Jews as a block vote which might be considered antisemitic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    .

    dixiedean said:

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.
    Slightly makes a mockery of one person/one vote. Our system is broken, it needs drastic reform. The idea that we have the right to moan about those pesky undemocratic Europeans is an absolute joke.
    Shame the previous boundary reform was voted down then, wasn’t it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286
    Danny565 said:

    That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?
    I think the key point flagged up by someone was that support for leaving with May's Deal was (unsurprisingly) way ahead in second round preferences. Leonardo's tweet doesn't show that but Faisal's does...

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1110443949775298562
  • Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

    It is just sad we are served with such mps
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286

    Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?
    The passing of the Great Reform Act.
    It was all downhill from there for the Bruges Group.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286
    edited March 2019

    Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

    It is just sad we are served with such mps
    Have a word with your fellow members in the Chichester CCP!

    Edit: That said, Chope might not be wrong on this point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Danny565 said:

    That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?
    I think the key point flagged up by someone was that support for leaving with May's Deal was (unsurprisingly) way ahead in second round preferences. Leonardo's tweet doesn't show that but Faisal's does...

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1110443949775298562
    Given that remaining in the EU gets an absolute majority on first preferences, that’s a moot point.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Even that begs the question of the most appropriate measure. Is it electorate or population? Do MPs represent all their constituents or just the ones on the electoral rolls? (The difference may be accentuated by purging the rolls recently.) Is neither measure right and we should look at the number of actual voters, as is customarily done by PR advocates?
  • crandlescrandles Posts: 91
    Betfair are refusing to suspend market 'UK - Brexit - Will Article 50 be extended?' Note the rules say
    Will the deadline of 29-03-2019 23:59:59 CET under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be extended? Yes will be settled as a winner if the European Council unanimously agree to extend Article 50.
    There is conditional extension to 22 May but otherwise extended to 12 April. This has been formally adopted and there is press release saying so and I have repeatedly sent this to betfair help. Can people here see and agree with Betfair's logic or are they being silly?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

    It is just sad we are served with such mps
    Have a word with your fellow members in the Chichester CCP!

    Edit: That said, Chope might not be wrong on this point.
    He might be the last person to know though, unless TMay had it written on her knickers, in which case he might know before anyone else.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited March 2019

    Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?
    The passing of the Great Reform Act.
    It was all downhill from there for the Bruges Group.
    It would be funny if it was not serious but hearing the DUP are seeking a long extension, the exact opposite of ERG demands, now highlights not only ERG's stupidity over the first MV but they have now been cast into the wilderness by those they support or more specifically have tried to use
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2019
    Danny565 said:

    That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?
    The same analysis from last June on that table had an 16 per cent lead for remain - so its not moved that much in 9 months.

    But when asked what option they prefer people say 55 per cent remain, 17% leaving on May's deal and 27% leaving with no deal. So that has an 11% remain lead not 20%?

    I suppose like all these polls it depends what question you ask! And variants of the same question give the same result e.g. the difference between what you want and what you think is the right thing to do?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286
    Leadsom (rightly) threatening to cancel MPs Easter break now. That'll hurt.

    On the bright side, there could be some good late deals for the rest of us on luxury Tuscan villas as a result. :smile:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    dixiedean said:

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.
    Here it is:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/bulletins/electoralstatisticsforuk/2018
    Ta very much!
    This is interesting:

    "Total number of UK Parliamentary electors decreases
    The total number of UK Parliamentary electors in December 2018 was 45,775,800, a decrease of 372,000 (negative 0.8%) from the previous year."

    This is the page with a link to the full data. Not sure if it was on the one I posted before.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/datasets/electoralstatisticsforuk
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    RobD said:

    .

    dixiedean said:

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.
    Slightly makes a mockery of one person/one vote. Our system is broken, it needs drastic reform. The idea that we have the right to moan about those pesky undemocratic Europeans is an absolute joke.
    Shame the previous boundary reform was voted down then, wasn’t it?

    A large number of MPs don't want reform, for the same reason that local councillors object to unitary authorities; less jobs for the boys.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286

    Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

    It is just sad we are served with such mps
    Have a word with your fellow members in the Chichester CCP!

    Edit: That said, Chope might not be wrong on this point.
    He might be the last person to know though, unless TMay had it written on her knickers, in which case he might know before anyone else.
    Naughty, but funny!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

    My guess:
    Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
    Streatham
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Kensington
    South Cambridgeshire

    ... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

    why Finchley?
    High petition signature level plus the antisemitism issues that forced some TIGgers out.
    Ironically, customary demographic analysis treats Jews as a block vote which might be considered antisemitic.
    It would also be an error.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286

    Danny565 said:

    That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?
    I think the key point flagged up by someone was that support for leaving with May's Deal was (unsurprisingly) way ahead in second round preferences. Leonardo's tweet doesn't show that but Faisal's does...

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1110443949775298562
    Given that remaining in the EU gets an absolute majority on first preferences, that’s a moot point.
    I was reporting not supporting it. :wink:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    crandles said:

    Betfair are refusing to suspend market 'UK - Brexit - Will Article 50 be extended?' Note the rules say
    Will the deadline of 29-03-2019 23:59:59 CET under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be extended? Yes will be settled as a winner if the European Council unanimously agree to extend Article 50.
    There is conditional extension to 22 May but otherwise extended to 12 April. This has been formally adopted and there is press release saying so and I have repeatedly sent this to betfair help. Can people here see and agree with Betfair's logic or are they being silly?

    Did someone see Philip May wandering in there with his collar up?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited March 2019

    From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

    My guess:
    Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
    Streatham
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Kensington
    South Cambridgeshire

    ... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

    why Finchley?
    High petition signature level plus the antisemitism issues that forced some TIGgers out.
    Ironically, customary demographic analysis treats Jews as a block vote which might be considered antisemitic.
    It would also be an error.
    Yes ; there's a strong traditionally urban/metropolitan leftish jewish vote ; a business vote ; and a culturally conserative orthodox jewish vote, at the least.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

    It is just sad we are served with such mps
    Have a word with your fellow members in the Chichester CCP!

    Edit: That said, Chope might not be wrong on this point.
    He might be the last person to know though, unless TMay had it written on her knickers, in which case he might know before anyone else.
    Naughty, but funny!
    :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286
    Anyone heard from TSE on his latest No Deal likelhood prediction?

    I assume he's moved from 65%
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Endillion said:

    kle4 said:

    And so the final confirmation arrives. Tom's the ERG they left it too late.
    The ERG didn't have the votes to carry this in the first place.

    May have had May not thrown away the majority of course.
    May only called that election in the first place because of the existence of the ERG. It's still all their fault.
    No she hubristically thought she could get a Blair-style landslide because she was 20 points ahead of Labour and go down in history as one of the greatest leaders ever. She furthered her hubris by seeking to get every unpopular act she might want to take into her manifesto (like scrapping the triple lock on pensions, the dementia tax etc) in order to get a mandate to take unpopular actions while having a landslide majority.

    This hubris led to her nemesis.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    If you live in a safe seat and your vote is wasted, it doesn't matter how big or small it is.
    Why is a seat safe in the first place? Because the voters have decided to make it so.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    crandles said:

    Betfair are refusing to suspend market 'UK - Brexit - Will Article 50 be extended?' Note the rules say
    Will the deadline of 29-03-2019 23:59:59 CET under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be extended? Yes will be settled as a winner if the European Council unanimously agree to extend Article 50.
    There is conditional extension to 22 May but otherwise extended to 12 April. This has been formally adopted and there is press release saying so and I have repeatedly sent this to betfair help. Can people here see and agree with Betfair's logic or are they being silly?

    Parliament still needs to ratify the Statutory Instrument to change the date.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?
    The passing of the Great Reform Act.
    It was all downhill from there for the Bruges Group.
    It would be funny if it was not serious but hearing the DUP are seeking a long extension, the exact opposite of ERG demands, now highlights not only ERG's stupidity over the first MV but they have now been cast into the wilderness by those they support or more specifically have tried to use
    It is serious, but it is still funny. The ERG clearly too thick and ignorant to know the ruthlessness of politics the other side of the Irish Sea. They thought they were using the DUP, while the DUP were quietly fitting them up with concrete shoes under the table.
  • crandlescrandles Posts: 91

    crandles said:

    Betfair are refusing to suspend market 'UK - Brexit - Will Article 50 be extended?' Note the rules say
    Will the deadline of 29-03-2019 23:59:59 CET under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be extended? Yes will be settled as a winner if the European Council unanimously agree to extend Article 50.
    There is conditional extension to 22 May but otherwise extended to 12 April. This has been formally adopted and there is press release saying so and I have repeatedly sent this to betfair help. Can people here see and agree with Betfair's logic or are they being silly?

    Did someone see Philip May wandering in there with his collar up?
    You've lost me here, what does this have to do with anything?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,286
    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

    Top 20 England

    Milton Keynes South 92,000
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
    West Ham 90,048
    South Northamptonshire 88,039
    Milton Keynes North 87,654
    Ashford 87,102
    North East Bedfordshire 86,990
    Banbury 86,431
    Bury St Edmunds 86,374
    Wantage 86,243
    Manchester Central 86,233
    Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
    Croydon North 85,196
    Warrington South 84,741
    Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
    East Devon 84,195
    Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
    South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

    Bottom 20 England

    Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
    Putney 59,382
    Wolverhampton North East 59,367
    Hexham 59,298
    Nottingham East 58,930
    Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
    Leeds North West 58,553
    Middlesbrough 58,518
    Northampton North 58,398
    Kensington 57,627
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
    Wolverhampton South West 57,478
    Wirral South 56,350
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
    Preston 55,512
    Blackpool South 55,510
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
    Wirral West 54,249
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

    The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

    Top 5 Scotland

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
    Falkirk 82,830
    Livingston 80,487
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

    Bottom 5 Scotland

    Aberdeen North 58,620
    North East Fife 57,143
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
    Glasgow North 52,059
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

    Top 3 Wales

    Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
    Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
    Cardiff North 64,953

    Bottom 3 Wales

    Aberconwy 43,804
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
    Arfon 38,864

    Top 2 NI

    Upper Bann 80,601
    Newry and Armagh 78,713

    Bottom 2 NI

    East Antrim 62,985
    Belfast West 62,921

    If you live in a safe seat and your vote is wasted, it doesn't matter how big or small it is.
    Why is a seat safe in the first place? Because the voters have decided to make it so.
    I really object to this use of 'voters' as a if they were a single entity.

    I am in a safe seat because the majority of my neighbours vote Tory but over 1/3rd of us didn't vote for him - we didn't make it a safe seat. The same happens in safe Labour seats.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I really object to this use of 'voters' as a if they were a single entity.

    I am in a safe seat because the majority of my neighbours vote Tory but over 1/3rd of us didn't vote for him - we didn't make it a safe seat. The same happens in safe Labour seats.

    So you were outvoted by a large margin. What's the objection, exactly?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DUP are out , WA dead. May as PM is dead.

    There is now no path for the Uk not to take part in the EU elections.

    Vote early, vote Nigelly.


  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Leadsom (rightly) threatening to cancel MPs Easter break now. That'll hurt.

    On the bright side, there could be some good late deals for the rest of us on luxury Tuscan villas as a result. :smile:

    Most workers only get Good Friday and Easter Monday off as bank holidays - why do MPs need nearly 3 weeks off (from 4 April to 23 April)?. Even primary school kids don't get that long!
This discussion has been closed.