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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 5-6 pence drop in the price of a litre could be contrib

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 5-6 pence drop in the price of a litre could be contributing to the slightly better CON position

A factor that might be helping the coalition and particularly the Tories is the price drop we’ve seen in the cost of petrol and diesel at the pumps.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    First!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,501
    I'm sure that fuel prices do hurt, or help, the government, at the margins.
  • Doubtful about the impact of the fuel price on voting intention, although I do recall seeing a graph in circa 2008 claiming that the two were intimately connected. Nevertheless, the government has demonstrated by its policy on fuel taxation that it has lots of money in the bank for giveaways to special interest groups, while there is supposedly no money left.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Maybe that’s helping the blues in the polls?
    Maybe the May local elections will be a triumph for the incompetent fops?

    Or maybe not. ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    edited April 2013
    On topic - this year's budget has sunk without trace, unlike last's which rumbled on to the summer - and is it so much a 'Con boost' as a 'Labour slip'? Con are where they were in December - Labour are two and a half points lower:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100213458/a-plague-on-both-your-houses-how-ukip-is-worrying-labour-as-well-as-the-conservatives/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Meanwhile, looks like C4 has some fun footage of a speechless Farage on Bulgarian TV:



  • boulayboulay Posts: 46
    Could it not more likely be that for the last few weeks the news has been concentrating on big news stories such as lady thatcher's death, funeral and then Boston and so the wall to wall whining about the cuts has been less noticeable (indeed I think I have only seen Jonathan porters on tv once in the last few weeks!!) and so people are not constantly in a sense of whipped up fear or anger about the Nast coalition? There has also been a concentration on welfare issues and immigration on which the blues are seen as being on the popular side of the argument which has made them seem more in tune with many people's concerns when they are not thinking about the cuts....

    I am not sure that as people pay for their petrol they are mentioning George and Dave and nick in their prayers of thanks!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    On topic - this year's budget has sunk without trace, unlike last's which rumbled on to the summer - and is it so much a 'Con boost' as a 'Labour slip'? Con are where they were in December - Labour are two and a half points lower:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100213458/a-plague-on-both-your-houses-how-ukip-is-worrying-labour-as-well-as-the-conservatives/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Meanwhile, looks like C4 has some fun footage of a speechless Farage on Romanian TV:



    It's somewhat understandable he was speechless to such a bizarre question on cousins.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    Gosh fuel is dear where you live. Diesel is down to about 137p a litre around here after a peak of 142p

    I am sure you are right that fuel prices are far more politically sensitive than most prices. It is the reason the goverment has spent so much trying to get us off Labour's fuel escalator. I think we are finally at the point where future increases are no longe built into the budget so it will be less difficult to avoid these in future.

    More generally I deeply resent that I am paying about £50 in tax to the government every time I fill my tank, £50 that comes out of money already taxed at 40%. The cost of fuel and getting around in the UK is a serious economic disadvantage. Now that we have decided the world is not warming after all perhaps we should try hard to do something about it (quietly retreats to a sound proof room).
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    FPT for SeanT -

    People of knowledge, I beg of you, please be patient with Sean. He reads the right-wing London press and thinks he understands Scotland.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    FPT: Perhaps we have the hilarious situation where the nominally unionist Westminster government is trying to push Scots towards the exit by putting up Osborne as their spokesman, and the SNP, by their ludicrous antics on the currency, NATO and the EU, are trying to frighten Scots so they stay in.

    If so, I'm afraid the SNP's fear and confusion will predominate. I really can't see Scots buying into this shambles, much though I'd be happy if they did.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lynton Crosby earning his coin. Ferk all to do with petrol.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    Just before I run away from the warmist tendency can I just say how happy I am that we have a Chancellor who is capable and competent enough to cook the books with such a fine judgement. £300m on a budget of over £650bn! Well done George. skillfully played.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013


    If so, I'm afraid the SNP's fear and confusion will predominate. I really can't see Scots buying this shambles, much though I'd be happy if they did.

    Near perfect irony from a Cameroon spinner who doesn't have clue whether Cammie supports IN or OUT for his own Cast Iron referendum.

    It's hard to get much more basic confusion and shambolic than that.

    Let me remind you of the incompetent fop's hilarity.

    Cameron's govt. spokesman have admitted there might not be a treaty. Yet it's not just Cameron and the tory party's own position on whether to support IN or OUT that is supposedly amusingly predicated on treaty negotiations that likely won't happen.

    The entire referendum itself even happening is predicated on those treaty negotiations occurring, even down to the wording of the question.
    "The next Conservative manifesto in 2015 will ask for a mandate from the British people for a Conservative government to negotiate a new settlement with our European partners in the next Parliament," he said. "It will be a relationship with the single market at its heart.

    "And when we have negotiated that new settlement, we will give the British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice: to stay in the EU on these new terms or come out altogether.
    It's all there in Cameron's own words.

    For anyone who missed that it's a get out clause and loophole every bit as huge as the one Cammie used for Lisbon.

    How hard will it be for Cameron to wriggle out of his Cast Iron Pledge for an IN/OUT EU referendum in the future on the grounds that it can't be held since there will have been no treaty, no negotiations, no new settlement and no new terms?

    About as hard as it was for Cammie to wriggle out of the Cast Iron Lisbon pledge.

    I really can't see Eurosceptics buying into this shambles forever. At least you'll find out in the May locals just how compelling a case Cammie is making to tory/UKIP waverers.
  • @DavidL
    Somehow I doubt you would react in the same way if the cooking of the books related to Gordon Brown and the so-called Golden Rule.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    While Ms Cooper is castigating Mrs May over Abu Qatada, worth remembering the looooong timeline of his story:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17769990

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    Mick_Pork said:


    If so, I'm afraid the SNP's fear and confusion will predominate. I really can't see Scots buying this shambles, much though I'd be happy if they did.

    Near perfect irony from a Cameroon spinner who doesn't have clue whether Cammie supports IN or OUT for his own Cast Iron referendum.
    You seem curiously reluctant to discuss your own dear referendum......

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635

    @DavidL
    Somehow I doubt you would react in the same way if the cooking of the books related to Gordon Brown and the so-called Golden Rule.

    If you think that I think reducing the deficit by £300m when it is £120bn a year is really something to be commended you have not been reading my posts.

    I did burst out laughing when the BBC seriously reported tonight though that Labour thought the deficit was too high. Now there is a party with a sense of humour. Curiously the BBC did not seem to have asked them what they thought the government was spending too much money on.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    tim said:

    "Lynton Crosby earning his coin."

    By boosting UKIP.

    Interesting theory.

    "Labour needs to wake up to the threat posed by UKIP or risk losing seats in next week’s council elections, a senior MP has warned.

    Ex-Transport Minister John Spellar claims UKIP could dent Labour’s chances of regaining control of county councils, particularly in the North and the Midlands.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-must-wake-up-ukip-1848445#ixzz2RJ4jy17P
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Tell you what I do read - the polls.

    Latest poll on independence -

    Yes: 30
    No: 51"


    Even by picking the least favourable recent poll for Yes, you've still managed to find one that shows a 2% swing to Yes since the last equivalent poll of 2012 by the same company.

    Hardly surprising, given that every single pollster has shown a pro-independence swing this year. The trend isn't looking great for you guys.
  • @CarlottaVance

    While Ms Cooper is castigating Mrs May over Abu Qatada, worth remembering the looooong timeline of his story:

    Two points stand out. (1) The Tories granted him refugee status before his conviction in Jordan, so have only themselves to blame. (2) Labour's preferred solution to the problem is to intern him without trial in Her Majesty's Prison Belmarsh.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108

    "Tell you what I do read - the polls.

    Latest poll on independence -

    Yes: 30
    No: 51"


    Even by picking the least favourable recent poll for Yes, you've still managed to find one that shows a 2% swing to Yes since the last equivalent poll of 2012 by the same company.

    Hardly surprising, given that every single pollster has shown a pro-independence swing this year. The trend isn't looking great for you guys.

    With a 2% swing, 'Yes' clearly has the big 'Mo. ;-)

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    "Tell you what I do read - the polls.

    Latest poll on independence -

    Yes: 30
    No: 51"


    Even by picking the least favourable recent poll for Yes, you've still managed to find one that shows a 2% swing to Yes since the last equivalent poll of 2012 by the same company.

    Hardly surprising, given that every single pollster has shown a pro-independence swing this year. The trend isn't looking great for you guys.

    One interesting growing trend in Scotland is for SNP councillors to resign from their council group and the SNP Party . So far this year they have lost 7 councillors ( and in return gained 1 from a former Independent ) . The latest is the 2nd SNP councillor on Argyll council to resign within 2 months leaving the SNP led minority administration tottering on the brink of collapse .

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Agreed. A 2% MOE ''swing" to Yes, in a year"

    Oh, it's so much worse than that, Sean. The 2% swing has occurred since October.

    If Panelbase are correct and the No lead is 10%, only another 5% swing is required for Yes to win.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,345

    "Tell you what I do read - the polls.

    Latest poll on independence -

    Yes: 30
    No: 51"


    Even by picking the least favourable recent poll for Yes, you've still managed to find one that shows a 2% swing to Yes since the last equivalent poll of 2012 by the same company.

    Hardly surprising, given that every single pollster has shown a pro-independence swing this year. The trend isn't looking great for you guys.

    A 2% swing to yes you say? Wow!

    At this rate Yes should be able to win next year's referendum some time in 2024.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    Happy St George's Day!

    On topic, of course it was the price of fuel which gave Hague his only poll lead in 2000!
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "the SNP Party ."

    Mark, you can't call it the "SNP Party" because the P stands for Party. It's like calling the BBC the "BBC Corporation".

    Luckily the SNP had a substantial enough lead in terms of council seats after their historic local election triumph last year that there is no danger of them ceasing to be the largest party of local government.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,039
    It's as good a theory as any. We've also seen more Conservative discipline and Labour confusion on spending plans and welfare benefits.

    An alternative theory is that this is a Margaret Thatcher memorial bounce. That doesn't feel particularly likely to me.

    I guess we'll never know.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited April 2013
    Moderated.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    2% in a year ? Got the big mo !!!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    tim said:

    "Lynton Crosby earning his coin."

    By boosting UKIP.

    Interesting theory.

    "Labour needs to wake up to the threat posed by UKIP or risk losing seats in next week’s council elections, a senior MP has warned.

    Ex-Transport Minister John Spellar claims UKIP could dent Labour’s chances of regaining control of county councils, particularly in the North and the Midlands.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-must-wake-up-ukip-1848445#ixzz2RJ4jy17P
    Ha Ha Ha Ha !!!!
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2013
    It is disappointing that the SNP have clearly done so little planning on how to win the Scotland referendum. Maybe they should be utilising the "talents" of the resident PB's SNP posters MickPork and James etc to focus on how they can win? As a supporter of Scottish independence it is a shame that SNP posters on here write endlessly about "fop Cameron/Osborne" rather than investing their time in winning their referendum. But clearly winning that referendum is not a priority for MickPork and James etc. Very strange, are they secretly SLAB unionists playing distraction games? PS Osborne is doing his best to help independence by entering the debate as an Englishman, which is the only bright point of today.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Rennard case now formal with cops...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,345
    edited April 2013
    Moderated.
  • TGOHF said:

    Rennard case now formal with cops...

    About time.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,039
    Things I have learned from Twitter today: the White House has not blown up and Barack Obama has not been injured.

    It's a vital news resource indeed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108
    edited April 2013
    @James

    Damn I forgot to include the bit about the titanium hooters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541


    If Panelbase are correct

    Is that the PanelBase Scottish Green poll where they have not published the 'Yes/No' split?


  • BREAKING Met Police have now launched formal investigation into allegations of inappropriate behaviour by Lib Dem peer Lord Rennard
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,039
    @JamesKelly You obviously don't remember the "Let's Have Another Party Party".
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 342
    Unleaded is 130.9 per litre here in Norwich (Sainsburys & Morrisons). I was in Dorset and Wilts last week and the cheapest I could find was 136.9.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    "the SNP Party ."

    Mark, you can't call it the "SNP Party" because the P stands for Party. It's like calling the BBC the "BBC Corporation".

    Luckily the SNP had a substantial enough lead in terms of council seats after their historic local election triumph last year that there is no danger of them ceasing to be the largest party of local government.

    SNP had a lead of 31 councillors over Labour after the 2012 elections . With defections and byelection losses that lead is now just 22 . Should disappear completely by the time the referendum is held .

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Taking the longer view, petrol and diesel prices are roughly where they were at the time of Budget 2011 - two years ago - when Osborne proudly flourished his penny off fuel duty, and since which every scheduled rise in fuel duty has been cancelled. There have been small variations over the last couple of years, but it hasn't moved far from £1.40 for a litre of diesel.

    This was compared to the large increases in the year before Budget 2011, with diesel being below £1.20 a litre in the autumn of 2010. There was a marked decline in the Tory vote share over that period, which some ascribed to the spending review in October 2010, but may well have been fuel prices/cost of living related.

    Since then the two largest movements in the Tory vote share have been due to the [alleged] use of the veto in Europe, and [omnishambles] Budget 2012.

    So taking a wider view than just the last week or so, it would appear that one way for the Tories to give themselves a chance at the GE in 2015 would be to find a way of pushing fuel prices down by ~10%. Is there a practical way of achieving that?
  • SeanT said:


    As for this "swing" to Yes, the last TNS poll in March actually had Yes on 33.
    So support for independence has actually gone DOWN
    What, you think Brits can't google? Pitiful.

    SeanT, James & Co actually believe that the polling is going in their favour which is why they prefer to spend so much time 24/7 on here attacking the UK Govt. Delusional?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "So support for independence has actually gone DOWN"

    As I'm sure you'll have spotted, opposition to independence also went down in the same poll.

    "What, you think Brits can't google? Pitiful."

    Actually, it would be a lot simpler for you "Brits" if you simply kept up to date with latest polling developments by following the comprehensive coverage over at Scot Goes Pop, voted one of the UK's top 100 political blogs. Here is how it covered the poll you're mysteriously so excited about -

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/tns-bmrb-poll-decrease-in-opposition-to.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,348
    tim said:

    Don't know if anyone is betting on the football tonight.
    As a rule I never bet on Barcelona (usually too short) and never bet against Bayern Munich (German sides usually underrated and Bayern are awesome)
    But Barca are nearly out to 3/1 in a match I had them at 7/4 in.
    Messi has just passed a fitness test.

    Should put the Premier League dross in perspective anyway.

    Bayern are serial bottlers. I will never forgive them their abysmal performance against Chelsea in last year's final. But Barcelona struggle when faced with a disciplined side that pushes them wide. It's a tricky one. But Barca should do it over two legs. Real will beat Dortmund and the mother of all finals will take place next month at Wembley. And if it is Real v Barca, one thing is almost certain: it will not finish 11 a side.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fa7868-a5c4-11e2-b7dc-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2RJBc2idv

    If I represented the Scottish government in the extensive negotiations required by the creation of an independent state, I would try to secure a monetary union with England, and expect to fail.

    Given experience in the eurozone, today’s conventional wisdom is that monetary union is feasible only as part of a move towards eventual fiscal union. But desire to break up fiscal union was always a major – perhaps the principal – motive for independence in the first place.

    Scotland could continue to use the pound unilaterally, whether the Bank of England liked it or not – as Ecuador uses the dollar and Montenegro the euro. But this is not really an attractive course, and the only countries that have adopted it are those – such as Ecuador and Montenegro – whose monetary histories are so dire that they prefer to entrust their policies to foreigners.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,468
    DavidL said:


    I did burst out laughing when the BBC seriously reported tonight though that Labour thought the deficit was too high. Now there is a party with a sense of humour.

    I was at the dentist's having a filling when I heard that on the radio - my first thought was that she'd injected something other than local anaesthetic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108

    "So support for independence has actually gone DOWN"

    As I'm sure you'll have spotted, opposition to independence also went down in the same poll.

    "What, you think Brits can't google? Pitiful."

    Actually, it would be a lot simpler for you "Brits" if you simply kept up to date with latest polling developments by following the comprehensive coverage over at Scot Goes Pop, voted one of the UK's top 100 political blogs. Here is how it covered the poll you're mysteriously so excited about -

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/tns-bmrb-poll-decrease-in-opposition-to.html

    Decrease in opposition to independence? With an even bigger decrease in support!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    I have a theory almost as unlikely as Mike's petrol one. Labour lost support when Miliband Senior jumped ship to New York. Suddenly Labour looked thin on senior figures and some of us who even harboured dreams that junior would shunt himself to one side finally had their hopes dashed. The truth dawned.

    Ed was going to lead us into the next election
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Decrease in opposition to independence?"

    Yes, that was my first thought as well. Maybe they should replace Alistair Darling?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    The Student Loan Company owes my family money. I've called them up and they've had me on hold for twenty minutes. At what point can I send round the bailiffs?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108

    "Decrease in opposition to independence?"

    Yes, that was my first thought as well. Maybe they should replace Alistair Darling?

    Basing the headline from a MoE change? Even the No movement is almost MoE stuff!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    It is disappointing that the SNP have clearly done so little planning on how to win the Scotland referendum. Maybe they should be utilising the "talents" of the resident PB's SNP posters MickPork and James etc to focus on how they can win? As a supporter of Scottish independence it is a shame that SNP posters on here write endlessly about "fop Cameron/Osborne" rather than investing their time in winning their referendum. But clearly winning that referendum is not a priority for MickPork and James etc. Very strange, are they secretly SLAB unionists playing distraction games? PS Osborne is doing his best to help independence by entering the debate as an Englishman, which is the only bright point of today.

    I see you're still hopelessly confused that not supporting the tories is not exclusive to labour.

    You'll grasp it one day. Maybe.



  • So taking a wider view than just the last week or so, it would appear that one way for the Tories to give themselves a chance at the GE in 2015 would be to find a way of pushing fuel prices down by ~10%. Is there a practical way of achieving that?

    You could dig up the shire counties and 'frack' for shale gas, which is what the yanks are doing and reducing demand for crude oil.
    Of course, that might annoy potential Tory voters in another way.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,348
    Socrates said:

    The Student Loan Company owes my family money. I've called them up and they've had me on hold for twenty minutes. At what point can I send round the bailiffs?

    My son has trouble with them each and every year. A qualification for working there is extreme stupidity.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    YouGov averages by month (from Tele article I linked to down thread):

    November
    Con: 32.4 Lab: 42.4 LD: 9.4 Others: 15.8

    December
    Con: 31.8 Lab: 42.6 LD: 10.0 Others: 15.6

    January
    Con: 32.6 Lab: 42.0 LD: 11.0 Others: 14.0

    February
    Con: 31.2 Lab: 42.6 LD: 11.0 Others: 15.2

    March
    Con: 31.0 Lab: 40.8 LD: 11.2 Others: 16.8

    April
    Con: 31.8 Lab: 40.0 LD: 10.6 Others: 17.8

    Others (mainly UKIP) are 'up'.

    Who is down?

    And when did it start?

    This is still all within MOE around Con 30/Lab 40 (26.5-30-33.5, 37-40-43)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Gaffe free budget , tighter ship , tax cut coming , rEd lurching to the left.

    No brainer why the gap is closing.

    Sell Labour.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,316
    Evening all :)

    http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.jpg

    I'm not wholly convinced of the relationship between oil prices and voting intention. The oil price hit a high in June 2008 before falling incredibly quickly (I remember a price of 147.9p per litre falling back to 81.9p per litre) but I don't recall Labour reaping a great benefit from that fall.

    I also note the highly benign period of oil prices from the early 80s to the mid noughties with the brief exception of the Gulf War in 1990. Basically, we had a generation of cheap fuel and that ended less than a decade ago. The rise in oil prices coincided with the credit boom of the 2000s and peaked just before the financial crisis.

    The recent slight falls on the back of a weakening global economy worry me. Britain is stuck between the rock of a softening oil price on the back of a weakening global economy and a rising oil price which triggers inflation worries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    PPP North Carolina 2016

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    •Marco Rubio (R) 42%
    •Not sure 9%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
    •Rand Paul (R) 40%
    •Not sure 8%
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,794



    You could dig up the shire counties and 'frack' for shale gas, which is what the yanks are doing and reducing demand for crude oil.
    Of course, that might annoy potential Tory voters in another way.

    Except there is no reason why it should annoy the shire voters at all. There are over 3000 oil wells that have been drilled in the East Midlands in the last 60 years and there are still dozens being drilled. They have very strict environmental controls on them to deal with noise and traffic (far more than any other industry in the region) and hardly ever are there any complaints.

    You don't have to drill wells the way the Americans do. In the end it is perfectly possible to have a thriving onshore oil or gas industry without causing grief to the locals - as anyone living near Wytch Farm can probably testify.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Elizabeth Lloyd ‏@eliz_lloyd
    The lengths Osborne/ Darling went to in order to avoid actually ruling anything out today shows up their political posturing #indyref #yes
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322


    So taking a wider view than just the last week or so, it would appear that one way for the Tories to give themselves a chance at the GE in 2015 would be to find a way of pushing fuel prices down by ~10%. Is there a practical way of achieving that?

    You could dig up the shire counties and 'frack' for shale gas, which is what the yanks are doing and reducing demand for crude oil.
    Of course, that might annoy potential Tory voters in another way.

    We have miniscule amounts of shale gas compared to the US. France and Poland are the countries in the EU that could do it to a sizable amount. And it'll take a couple of decades to get the technology right.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541

    Elizabeth Lloyd ‏@eliz_lloyd
    The lengths Osborne/ Darling went to in order to avoid actually ruling anything out today shows up their political posturing #indyref #yes

    This Elizabeth Lloyd?

    "Elizabeth Lloyd @eliz_lloyd
    Special Adviser in communications @scotgov to @alexsalmond and co"

    I think you were on stronger ground with Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    stodge said:

    I'm not wholly convinced of the relationship between oil prices and voting intention. The oil price hit a high in June 2008 before falling incredibly quickly (I remember a price of 147.9p per litre falling back to 81.9p per litre) but I don't recall Labour reaping a great benefit from that fall.

    Stodge.

    Obviously it's not the only effect [if it is one].

    Your chart is the oil price in dollars - but the devaluation of the pound in [2007? 2008?] will have had a large impact on the price paid by British voters at the pump, as will increases in fuel duty [also neglected by your oil price chart].

    I'm not going to criticise you for not doing a full and proper regression analysis, because I haven't done one either, but these are pretty large and obvious discrepancies. Would you agree?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    "Local Conservative leaders have slammed the racist remarks made by John Cherry – but he will still stand for re-election in next week’s county council vote.

    Both West Sussex County Council and Chichester District Council have reported Mr Cherry to their standards boards, but UK electoral law means he must still stand as a Conservative candidate in the May 2 elections.

    The law means it is not possible for him to withdraw his nomination as a candidate at this stage as the election process is now ‘locked’ and cannot be changed.

    “He will therefore stand as a candidate and his party will be shown as the Conservatives on postal votes and ballot papers. Therefore it is possible for voters to vote for him and those votes will be counted as for all the other candidates. Indeed it is possible for him to be elected,” said a statement by Chichester Conservative Association."
    http://www.midhurstandpetworth.co.uk/news/your-community/race-row-tory-councillor-will-stand-for-re-election-1-5025221
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Elizabeth Lloyd @eliz_lloyd
    Special Adviser in communications @scotgov to @alexsalmond and co

    I think you were on stronger ground with Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower...."


    Unlike the strong ground you're on praying in aid the No campaigners in the UK Treasury?

    Talk me through that?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,316

    stodge said:

    I'm not wholly convinced of the relationship between oil prices and voting intention. The oil price hit a high in June 2008 before falling incredibly quickly (I remember a price of 147.9p per litre falling back to 81.9p per litre) but I don't recall Labour reaping a great benefit from that fall.

    Stodge.

    Obviously it's not the only effect [if it is one].

    Your chart is the oil price in dollars - but the devaluation of the pound in [2007? 2008?] will have had a large impact on the price paid by British voters at the pump, as will increases in fuel duty [also neglected by your oil price chart].

    I'm not going to criticise you for not doing a full and proper regression analysis, because I haven't done one either, but these are pretty large and obvious discrepancies. Would you agree?
    The point I was trying to make (and allowing for a couple of minutes Google research, I think it's still valid) is that if we are trying to argue that a move of 5-6p per litre is somehow having a significant (though, to be fair, still within MoE) movement of political opinion, then much larger movements should have a commensurate effect and I would argue they don't.

    There may be a slight recovery in Conservative fortunes currently though 30-32% is hardly match-winning territory. I would also caution against the tendency to pattern-match elections and assume things about vote shares for parties based on past experience.

    My thought on the American graphic is to ask whether the high petrol place fatally undermined John McCain in 2008 or whether he would have lost anyway after eight years of GOP rule. Likewise, after thirteen years of Government, was Brown always going to lose in 2010?



  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,223
    The average Labour lead across the last 8 YouGov polls was 8.625. In the eight before that it was 11. That is a statistically significant change (95% confidence about 1 percentage point, depending on how much the sampels are additive), albeit one that does not seem to have any obvious (certainly not single) basis in events; therefore, one must be sceptical as to whether it would continue.

    At first glance it appears to be the result of a slight improvement in the Tory vote share (which remains low) and a slightly lowering of the Labour vote share. The overall movement has been away from the two parties in the last year, if combined, as I recall.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541

    the UK Treasury?

    Which an independent Scotland will have to negotiate with.....

    As the chap in the FT wrote:

    "If I represented the Scottish government in the extensive negotiations required by the creation of an independent state, I would try to secure a monetary union with England, and expect to fail."

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Candidates for Midhurst division, West Sussex County Council:

    John Cherry: Conservative.
    Robert Green: Liberal Democrat.
    Margaret Guest: Independent.
    Pamela Hayton: UKIP.
    Gordon Mcara: Independent.
    Frances Turner: Labour.

    https://www.westsussex.gov.uk/your_council/councillors_and_democracy/elections/county_council_elections_2_may.aspx

    Midhurst by-election result, 15th November 2012:

    John Cherry: Conservative - 1,410 votes
    Douglas Denny: UKIP - 392 votes

    Midhurst result, 2009:

    Con 1640
    UKIP 906
    LD 531
    Lab 212

    https://www.westsussex.gov.uk/your_council/councillors__and_democracy/elections/results_of_previous_elections.aspx

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    "Why I, a Labour peer, am supporting a regulated market for NHS competition
    Patients are best served by clinical commissioning groups replacing repeatedly underperforming NHS service providers."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/23/regulated-market-nhs-competition
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Midhurst doesn't sound like the most liberal of places, with Tories and UKIP taking 100% of the vote in the 2012 by-election and 77% in the 2009 elections.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The cheapest petrol I've found so far is 129.9 at a Gulf station in Alum Rock, Birmingham:

    http://www.whatprice.co.uk/petrol-prices/filling-stations.html
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013

    "Why I, a Labour peer, am supporting a regulated market for NHS competition
    Patients are best served by clinical commissioning groups replacing repeatedly underperforming NHS service providers."

    The CIFers have gone ballistic. Even judging only by those comments which haven't been moderated, they seem to be literally insane.

    And all because someone who seems to know something about the subject suggests we should have a health system a bit more like that of Denmark, Finland, Holland or France. This may or may not be a good suggestion, but it's hardly anything to get insanely angry about.

    The reaction is utterly bizarre - what is the psychology behind it, one wonders?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,316
    Thank you, my friend. I wish I had had more time to browse the bookshop at Ongar - there were plenty of interesting books on offer and I browsed (incorrectly) the information on the Newbury Park - Ilford Sidings line.

    The "lost" line of my youth was Elmers End to Sanderstead which succumbed in 1983 and which I travelled on in the 1970s. I also used the Elmers End to Addiscombe service which survives (partly) through the Tramlink (as does the other line through Sandilands).

    The station master at North Weald told us on Saturday afternoon with justifiable pride how much they had achieved in a year and how, having travelled on the Bluebell and Watercress lines, the level of service to which they could aspire.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Brilliant C4 news - Nigel trying to sell the UK to the Roma and getting the response 'Nah, we wouldn't go - the weather's shite in the uk...'
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,336
    @Sunil_Prasannan

    Are the scorpions still at Ongar Station?:

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    tim said:

    So 80% of working age Bulgarians aren't coming to the UK?

    Quite liked 'Farage at Large'. There's a series in it I reckon.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Carola said:

    Brilliant C4 news - Nigel trying to sell the UK to the Roma and getting the response 'Nah, we wouldn't go - the weather's shite in the uk...'

    Very amusing but I don't think it means much because there might be a social taboo against doing or saying anything that insults one's nation in places like Bulgaria and Romania, and stating openly that you plan to leave your country is probably in that category.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Paxman asked Farage once how to pronounce his name and Farage said he didn't mind, so saying it to rhyme with the less posh version of "garage" is acceptable.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Carola said:


    Quite liked 'Farage at Large'. There's a series in it I reckon.

    It was like a cross between Borat and Alan Partridge. Very enjoyable.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,210
    Current director of Sage Advice Ltd. Works as an adviser to Xansa, a technology firm, and Byotrol, an antimicrobial company, which both sell services or products to the NHS” and was “paid by DLA Piper, which advised ministers on the £12 billion IT project for the NHS” projects that he was responsible for when he was a government minister.

    Register of interests.

    "Why I, a Labour peer, am supporting a regulated market for NHS competition
    Patients are best served by clinical commissioning groups replacing repeatedly underperforming NHS service providers."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/23/regulated-market-nhs-competition

  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,316
    You could put the UKIP leader at a series of tidal defences and call it "Farage at The Barrage"
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,316
    Or you could send the UKIP leader to a hotel on the Las Vegas Strip with a volcano which "explodes" every hour in the evening and call it:

    "Farage at The Mirage"

    I'm going for a lie-down.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    Current director of Sage Advice Ltd. Works as an adviser to Xansa, a technology firm, and Byotrol, an antimicrobial company, which both sell services or products to the NHS” and was “paid by DLA Piper, which advised ministers on the £12 billion IT project for the NHS” projects that he was responsible for when he was a government minister.

    Register of interests.

    "Why I, a Labour peer, am supporting a regulated market for NHS competition
    Patients are best served by clinical commissioning groups replacing repeatedly underperforming NHS service providers."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/23/regulated-market-nhs-competition

    Near perfect. :)

    The PB tories have gone ballistic. Even judging only by those comments which haven't been moderated, they seem to be literally insane.

    And all because someone who seems to know something about the subject suggests we should have a health system even more to his own financial interests. This may or may not be a good suggestion, but it's hardly anything to get insanely angry about.

    The reaction is utterly bizarre - what is the psychology behind it, one wonders?

    *tears of laughter etc,*

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,191
    At A and E. Farage at triage
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,682
    Remember Warner was a laughing stock as Health Minister.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,925
    AndyJS said:

    Midhurst doesn't sound like the most liberal of places, with Tories and UKIP taking 100% of the vote in the 2012 by-election and 77% in the 2009 elections.

    Hey! I'm from Midhurst. Fame at last!

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    He could go undercover as a Bulgarian or Roma fearlessly exposing something or other.

    Farage in camouflage.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Why is everyone rhyming Farage with different words?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    @tim,what do you make of this ? ,if this had been a tory,you would have gone into over drive.

    'It would be nice if British hotels had British receptionists': Labour accused of peddling xenophobic rhetoric in attack on tourism

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2313463/Labours-immigration-spokesman-Chris-Bryant-slams-tourism-industry-It-nice-British-hotels-British-receptionists.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Happy Days
    Ed Miliband still won't get rid of Ed Balls despite an ITV News poll which clearly shows voters would rather have David Cameron and George Osborne running the economy.
    http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-23/ed-miliband-stands-by-ed-balls-despite-poll-blow/
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,519
    Tesco Potters Bar Unleaded is still 136.9p tonight - it's totally outrageous!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,828
    stodge said:

    Thank you, my friend. I wish I had had more time to browse the bookshop at Ongar - there were plenty of interesting books on offer and I browsed (incorrectly) the information on the Newbury Park - Ilford Sidings line.

    The "lost" line of my youth was Elmers End to Sanderstead which succumbed in 1983 and which I travelled on in the 1970s. I also used the Elmers End to Addiscombe service which survives (partly) through the Tramlink (as does the other line through Sandilands).

    The station master at North Weald told us on Saturday afternoon with justifiable pride how much they had achieved in a year and how, having travelled on the Bluebell and Watercress lines, the level of service to which they could aspire.

    Glad you enjoyed the day - as I said I usually work Sundays, but interestingly was chatting to someone from Kent about Ilford to Newbury Park just this last Sunday itself!

    You know, I've taken pics (or tried to) of the old abandoned sites of Selsdon, Spencer Road, Coombe Road, Bingham Road and the original Addiscombe terminus, in late 2010. Haven't put them on line yet though. But the main goal was to at least visit those sites!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,828
    dr_spyn said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan

    Are the scorpions still at Ongar Station?:

    If they are I haven't spotted them! I think they were a staff-member's pets from years ago.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2013
    @Socrates

    "The Student Loan Company owes my family money. I've called them up and they've had me on hold for twenty minutes. At what point can I send round the bailiffs?"



    If over £500 I'd use the High Court Sheriffs. Fees are recoverable and reasonable and they are dogged in their determination to do your bidding. Their powers are also much greater than a bailiff.
This discussion has been closed.