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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next week could see Bercexit if some Tory Leavers have their w

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
  • Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Essentially, you'd be betting on Andrew Adonis becoming Prime Minister.
    Well Alastair Meeks pointed out that today Farage was matched at 44 to be next PM.

    PM Farage will be be succeeded by a hard Remainer, so so someone like A.C. Grayling.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    You honestly think we will have even left by then? Surely May's MV #4067 is pencilled in for March of that year?
    It's funny you say that.

    The person I struck the bet with back in 2016 thought it was a rare lapse by me, now he's convinced the only way he wins this bet is we don't Leave, as the bet was clearly for Rejoin
    I am sure that there will be all kinds of off the record complaints about how May really has to go by January of that year. Bound to be. Even the 20th VONC will be getting talked about.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    I'm yes. The recent methane discovery is promising
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    I'm yes. The recent methane discovery is promising
    Interesting. I just think life would have resulted in higher oxygen levels, staining etc. The planet looks like it has been dead for millennia to me, possibly millions of years.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    I'm yes. The recent methane discovery is promising
    Interesting. I just think life would have resulted in higher oxygen levels, staining etc. The planet looks like it has been dead for millennia to me, possibly millions of years.
    Well I'm not thinking of cities. But single cell life is very resilient and adaptable. I look at it as life is either nowhere else or everywhere else
  • From the Guardian Chelsea v Sparta Prague commentary.

    “Rob,” says Ian Burch. “I seem to remember that Mr Bates wanted to introduce the electric fences after a full-scale riot when Sunderland knocked Chelsea out of a Milk Cup semi-final at the Bridge. Former Chelsea player Clive Walker raced through to score against his old club after being played onside by a mounted policeman on the pitch who was behind Chelsea’s back four at the time. God knows what VAR would have made of that.”

    I hadn’t thought of that. Imagine VAR in English football in the 1980s! There would have been five riots per match, and you can imagine the equanimity with which Vinnie Jones might have responded upon hearing that VAR had ruled out his last-minute winner for GBH on the goalkeeper.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    I'm yes. The recent methane discovery is promising
    Interesting. I just think life would have resulted in higher oxygen levels, staining etc. The planet looks like it has been dead for millennia to me, possibly millions of years.
    Well I'm not thinking of cities. But single cell life is very resilient and adaptable. I look at it as life is either nowhere else or everywhere else
    The chances of anything coming from Mars is a million to one

    Hope you got similar odds!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Scott_P said:

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
    Their colour
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    I'm yes. The recent methane discovery is promising
    Interesting. I just think life would have resulted in higher oxygen levels, staining etc. The planet looks like it has been dead for millennia to me, possibly millions of years.
    Well I'm not thinking of cities. But single cell life is very resilient and adaptable. I look at it as life is either nowhere else or everywhere else
    The chances of anything coming from Mars is a million to one

    Hope you got similar odds!
    Evens, a friends bet of a pony ;)
    Slowly they are drawing their plans against us
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    I'm yes. The recent methane discovery is promising
    Interesting. I just think life would have resulted in higher oxygen levels, staining etc. The planet looks like it has been dead for millennia to me, possibly millions of years.
    Well I'm not thinking of cities. But single cell life is very resilient and adaptable. I look at it as life is either nowhere else or everywhere else
    So you’re working on the basis it’s a godawful small affair?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lammy voted against triggering Art 50, difficult to possibly see how he is any sort of 'traitor'... he has been consistently against.
    You what? The nutter was a Leaver...
    I always like to play the ball where possible in political arguments ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    I'm yes. The recent methane discovery is promising
    Interesting. I just think life would have resulted in higher oxygen levels, staining etc. The planet looks like it has been dead for millennia to me, possibly millions of years.
    Well I'm not thinking of cities. But single cell life is very resilient and adaptable. I look at it as life is either nowhere else or everywhere else
    So you’re working on the basis it’s a godawful small affair?
    Well Mickey mouse did grow up a cow
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
    The blue vs white question makes it seem like a binary division but the photo looks more like there is a continuous range from white to blue with various shades in between.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    I'm yes. The recent methane discovery is promising
    Interesting. I just think life would have resulted in higher oxygen levels, staining etc. The planet looks like it has been dead for millennia to me, possibly millions of years.
    Well I'm not thinking of cities. But single cell life is very resilient and adaptable. I look at it as life is either nowhere else or everywhere else
    So you’re working on the basis it’s a godawful small affair?
    Well Mickey mouse did grow up a cow
    From Ibiza to the Norfolk Broads
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    I have found an interesting comment from Vote UK Forum:
    'It is the view of a few SNP MPs in this area - and I agree with them - that if it looks likely Labour will win the next election, Labour will take around a dozen seats off the SNP in the Clyde valley area.'
    People can make of that what they wish!


    One makes as much of it as of any other anecdote which flies in the face of opinion poll and other local election evidence all of which suggests Labour is going backwards in Scotland.
    The polling evidence - for Westminster elections in Scotland - is not that clear at all , but Labour have recently experienced two poor Local By election results there.
    The most recent polls show both Tories and SNP stable or rising with Labour falling - so actually - very clear.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Anyone remember when we used to wonder how the Tories would do if they made Brexit a success?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Scott_P said:

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
    The blue vs white question makes it seem like a binary division but the photo looks more like there is a continuous range from white to blue with various shades in between.
    Unified Germany plus USSR and Yugoslavia plants it firmly to 1991, which means it’s fairly old. If it’s been on display on a wall all that time the colours could be as mundane as a wider range having faded away to just two.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
    The blue vs white question makes it seem like a binary division but the photo looks more like there is a continuous range from white to blue with various shades in between.
    Unified Germany plus USSR and Yugoslavia plants it firmly to 1991, which means it’s fairly old. If it’s been on display on a wall all that time the colours could be as mundane as a wider range having faded away to just two.
    Only blue is usually the first colour to fade.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    You honestly think we will have even left by then? Surely May's MV #4067 is pencilled in for March of that year?
    Have a vote every year on March 29th, similar to how we used to have annual renewal of anti-terror legislation, and still, I think, annually renew the temporary income tax.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    edited April 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    The numbers I crunched from early polling actually suggested a 6 way split for SW, which amused me.

    But again caveat: I used 2014 regional strengths and not early poillng subsets suggesting Brexit doing somewhat better in South and somewhat worse in North than 2014, and thus further suggesting the type of pure Tory -> Farage swing that was posited but didn't quite happen for GE 2015.

    I'd fully expect Brexit to gain at least 2 MEPs in SW, maybe even 3.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    My MP Dame Eleanor Laing as Deputy Speaker is certainly in the running to succeed Bercow and would do an excellent job (she was also a Leaver but backed May's Deal)
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
    The blue vs white question makes it seem like a binary division but the photo looks more like there is a continuous range from white to blue with various shades in between.
    Unified Germany plus USSR and Yugoslavia plants it firmly to 1991, which means it’s fairly old. If it’s been on display on a wall all that time the colours could be as mundane as a wider range having faded away to just two.
    Only blue is usually the first colour to fade.
    Different colour that faded to blue? I dunno how the half-lives of pigments work so it's just a guess!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    My longest bet ever is that the sitting US President doesn't confirm the discovery of alien life by 2020. Placed in early 2013 with Paddy Power at 2/1.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,760
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    I'd expect a result in the South West along the lines of Brexit, Conservative, Labour, Brexit, Lib Dem or Green, Conservative.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    RobD said:
    It does look like I was completely wrong about the potential for confusion between Farage, UKIP and the Brexit party. Recent opinion polls would suggest that the Brexit party will obliterate UKIP.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758
    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    My longest bet ever is that the sitting US President doesn't confirm the discovery of alien life by 2020. Placed in early 2013 with Paddy Power at 2/1.
    I take it Trump himself doesn't count?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    RobD said:
    It does look like I was completely wrong about the potential for confusion between Farage, UKIP and the Brexit party. Recent opinion polls would suggest that the Brexit party will obliterate UKIP.
    Theres also every UKIP TV appearance being a train wreck of far right awfulness
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
    The blue vs white question makes it seem like a binary division but the photo looks more like there is a continuous range from white to blue with various shades in between.
    Unified Germany plus USSR and Yugoslavia plants it firmly to 1991, which means it’s fairly old. If it’s been on display on a wall all that time the colours could be as mundane as a wider range having faded away to just two.
    Could it be as simple as white shows the countries where said client was operating in 1991?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    DavidL said:

    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    My longest bet ever is that the sitting US President doesn't confirm the discovery of alien life by 2020. Placed in early 2013 with Paddy Power at 2/1.
    I take it Trump himself doesn't count?
    Not beyond ten. He runs out of fingers.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    My longest bet ever is that the sitting US President doesn't confirm the discovery of alien life by 2020. Placed in early 2013 with Paddy Power at 2/1.
    Not a fan of the disclosure movement then?!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    I'd expect a result in the South West along the lines of Brexit, Conservative, Labour, Brexit, Lib Dem or Green, Conservative.
    I will be very surprised indeed if the Greens don't take at least one seat in the SW. I would have said there's a non-trivial chance they could outflank Labour from the left and pick up two. Bristol and Stroud are happy hunting grounds for them, while there are going to be a lot of seriously pissed off lefties in Bournemouth plus students in Exeter and Plymouth to target as the only unambiguously pro-Remain party untainted by previous disasters.

    If they lose their seat, they've had a pretty dismal night.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    The numbers I crunched from early polling actually suggested a 6 way split for SW, which amused me.

    But again caveat: I used 2014 regional strengths and not early poillng subsets suggesting Brexit doing somewhat better in South and somewhat worse in North than 2014, and thus further suggesting the type of pure Tory -> Farage swing that was posited but didn't quite happen for GE 2015.

    I'd fully expect Brexit to gain at least 2 MEPs in SW, maybe even 3.
    It's a low income region. Polls show lower income people are the more concerned about no deal Brexit.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909

    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
    The blue vs white question makes it seem like a binary division but the photo looks more like there is a continuous range from white to blue with various shades in between.
    Unified Germany plus USSR and Yugoslavia plants it firmly to 1991, which means it’s fairly old. If it’s been on display on a wall all that time the colours could be as mundane as a wider range having faded away to just two.
    Only blue is usually the first colour to fade.
    Sunil means "blue"! Who knew?!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
    The blue vs white question makes it seem like a binary division but the photo looks more like there is a continuous range from white to blue with various shades in between.
    Unified Germany plus USSR and Yugoslavia plants it firmly to 1991, which means it’s fairly old. If it’s been on display on a wall all that time the colours could be as mundane as a wider range having faded away to just two.
    Only blue is usually the first colour to fade.
    Different colour that faded to blue? I dunno how the half-lives of pigments work so it's just a guess!
    If the blue-white division were meaningful it would be explained with a key. If there were a key there would be no mystery. Therefore it must be faded colours

    The shade of blue looks very much like the cyan used in most paper printing. Therefore the yellow and magenta have faded to nothing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Scott_P said:

    That’s a flag on the map you don’t get many chances at.

    Talking of maps, can the PB brain trust solve this one?

    https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1118932991592554497
    The blue vs white question makes it seem like a binary division but the photo looks more like there is a continuous range from white to blue with various shades in between.
    There is. It's an old map, that has been in a light spot on a wall for a long time. Originally each country had a unique colour, but the ink has faded and the blue pigment has outlast the other inks that have faded away.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The Labour MEP toping the EM list has a few things right:

    https://twitter.com/Rory_Palmer/status/1118804272085389313?s=19

    Actually the second on the Labour EM list sounds decent too, Leonie Mathers. Hucknall born, former aide to Yvette Cooper. That may well be where my tactical vote goes. Under Dehondt a second Labour MEP may well be a a better outcome than the rather less likely Green or LD.
    The Labour MEP selections are quite interesting and give some hope to those of us who hope that the party is not completely lost to the Corbynites. There has been no attempt to deselect sitting MEPs, despite the fact that hardly any of them are Corbyn supporters and the selection of Adonis, marmite though he is, in a potentially winnable position sends quite a powerful message to remainers and PV campaigners who might be thinking about switching to TIG or the Lib Dems.
    There's been almost no deselections at Westminster level either - 11 deselected themselves, admittedly in some cases after votes of no confidence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    The numbers I crunched from early polling actually suggested a 6 way split for SW, which amused me.

    But again caveat: I used 2014 regional strengths and not early poillng subsets suggesting Brexit doing somewhat better in South and somewhat worse in North than 2014, and thus further suggesting the type of pure Tory -> Farage swing that was posited but didn't quite happen for GE 2015.

    I'd fully expect Brexit to gain at least 2 MEPs in SW, maybe even 3.
    It's a low income region. Polls show lower income people are the more concerned about no deal Brexit.
    I think that's an unhelpful generalisation. The South West is pretty diverse. You have Cornwall, which I think is the poorest county in England and heavily reliant on tourism, but you have Bournemouth and Bristol which are both wealthy.

    The more pertinent point I would suggest is people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial. What matters to them is what happens in their neighbourhood. Anywhere else, not of interest. They regard London with suspicion and freuqently dislike, never mind Brussels. Which is I would suggest why it has been one and the same time a Liberal Democrat stronghold and happy hunting ground for Brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The Labour MEP toping the EM list has a few things right:

    https://twitter.com/Rory_Palmer/status/1118804272085389313?s=19

    Actually the second on the Labour EM list sounds decent too, Leonie Mathers. Hucknall born, former aide to Yvette Cooper. That may well be where my tactical vote goes. Under Dehondt a second Labour MEP may well be a a better outcome than the rather less likely Green or LD.
    The Labour MEP selections are quite interesting and give some hope to those of us who hope that the party is not completely lost to the Corbynites. There has been no attempt to deselect sitting MEPs, despite the fact that hardly any of them are Corbyn supporters and the selection of Adonis, marmite though he is, in a potentially winnable position sends quite a powerful message to remainers and PV campaigners who might be thinking about switching to TIG or the Lib Dems.
    There's been almost no deselections at Westminster level either - 11 deselected themselves, admittedly in some cases after votes of no confidence.
    Well, we all know votes of no-confidence, even of five to one, are not binding in Labour.

    Just ask Mr Corbyn.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    The numbers I crunched from early polling actually suggested a 6 way split for SW, which amused me.

    But again caveat: I used 2014 regional strengths and not early poillng subsets suggesting Brexit doing somewhat better in South and somewhat worse in North than 2014, and thus further suggesting the type of pure Tory -> Farage swing that was posited but didn't quite happen for GE 2015.

    I'd fully expect Brexit to gain at least 2 MEPs in SW, maybe even 3.
    It's a low income region. Polls show lower income people are the more concerned about no deal Brexit.
    I think that's an unhelpful generalisation. The South West is pretty diverse. You have Cornwall, which I think is the poorest county in England and heavily reliant on tourism, but you have Bournemouth and Bristol which are both wealthy.

    The more pertinent point I would suggest is people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial. What matters to them is what happens in their neighbourhood. Anywhere else, not of interest. They regard London with suspicion and freuqently dislike, never mind Brussels. Which is I would suggest why it has been one and the same time a Liberal Democrat stronghold and happy hunting ground for Brexit.
    Christ, you know you are having a bad day when you get called insular and parochial by a Welshman.

    You are right, mind you. I regard everything east of Exeter as abroad.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    The numbers I crunched from early polling actually suggested a 6 way split for SW, which amused me.

    But again caveat: I used 2014 regional strengths and not early poillng subsets suggesting Brexit doing somewhat better in South and somewhat worse in North than 2014, and thus further suggesting the type of pure Tory -> Farage swing that was posited but didn't quite happen for GE 2015.

    I'd fully expect Brexit to gain at least 2 MEPs in SW, maybe even 3.
    It's a low income region. Polls show lower income people are the more concerned about no deal Brexit.
    I think that's an unhelpful generalisation. The South West is pretty diverse. You have Cornwall, which I think is the poorest county in England and heavily reliant on tourism, but you have Bournemouth and Bristol which are both wealthy.

    The more pertinent point I would suggest is people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial. What matters to them is what happens in their neighbourhood. Anywhere else, not of interest. They regard London with suspicion and freuqently dislike, never mind Brussels. Which is I would suggest why it has been one and the same time a Liberal Democrat stronghold and happy hunting ground for Brexit.
    Celtic innit. Its the British in them fighting the English over eastwards
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    My longest bet ever is that the sitting US President doesn't confirm the discovery of alien life by 2020. Placed in early 2013 with Paddy Power at 2/1.
    Not a fan of the disclosure movement then?!
    Indeed! Also yet another reason I'd have preferred President Clinton. You never know what Trump will announce next...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    edited April 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    The more pertinent point I would suggest is people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial. What matters to them is what happens in their neighbourhood. Anywhere else, not of interest. They regard London with suspicion and freuqently dislike, never mind Brussels. Which is I would suggest why it has been one and the same time a Liberal Democrat stronghold and happy hunting ground for Brexit.

    Christ, you know you are having a bad day when you get called insular and parochial by a Welshman.

    You are right, mind you. I regard everything east of Exeter as abroad.
    It's even worse than that. I'm a Welshman who was brought up in the Forest of Dean. There 'local' is the village, and further afield is 'way off.'

    Edit - true story. Many years ago I met a man in Kingham in Gloucestershire who must have been approaching sixty, who said he had only left Kingham once in his life. I was rather startled and asked where he had gone. 'Oh, way off,' he said. 'It were Chipping Norton.'

    (Anyone who doesn't get it, look at a map.)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember not so long ago PB Leavers said Brexit would have been a success if Mrs May was replaced by David Davis or if Mrs May had let David Davis get on with Brexit.

    What fools.

    The Brexit inquiry will see the likes of David Davis and Stewart Jackson locked up.
    You wanting a bet on that?
    Sure.

    Come up with some terms/time frames and we can talk.

    We need to cover the option if they recant their views or if there’s a drumhead style trial.
    Ok, its a long bet but if I will offer you evens on neither being convicted (let alone imprisoned) of a Brexit related offence within 5 years of this date. £50?
    Make it a decade.

    After all the publication of the Chilcot report was 12 years after Blair persuaded Parliament to support the invasion of Iraq.
    Ah, but I may not be alive by then. 5 years is a long, long time on an internet bet.
    I think the longest bet I have is a private bet that we'll have rejoined the EU by 2030.
    I've got about 6 years left on a 25 year bet that evidence of current life on Mars will be discovered
    Which side are you on? I would be on the "no" side. I suspect if we were going to find it we would have found traces of it by now.
    My longest bet ever is that the sitting US President doesn't confirm the discovery of alien life by 2020. Placed in early 2013 with Paddy Power at 2/1.
    Not a fan of the disclosure movement then?!
    Indeed! Also yet another reason I'd have preferred President Clinton. You never know what Trump will announce next...
    Clinton's campaign director and Bill's chief of staff John Podesta is a big pusher for disclosure, Clinton of the Bill variety dropped a famously big hint about the supposed cover up in Ireland, he referred to a letter from a young boy about Roswell saying he hadn't been told either and he wants to know. The letter doesn't actually exist it transpires
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,760
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    The numbers I crunched from early polling actually suggested a 6 way split for SW, which amused me.

    But again caveat: I used 2014 regional strengths and not early poillng subsets suggesting Brexit doing somewhat better in South and somewhat worse in North than 2014, and thus further suggesting the type of pure Tory -> Farage swing that was posited but didn't quite happen for GE 2015.

    I'd fully expect Brexit to gain at least 2 MEPs in SW, maybe even 3.
    It's a low income region. Polls show lower income people are the more concerned about no deal Brexit.
    I think that's an unhelpful generalisation. The South West is pretty diverse. You have Cornwall, which I think is the poorest county in England and heavily reliant on tourism, but you have Bournemouth and Bristol which are both wealthy.

    The more pertinent point I would suggest is people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial. What matters to them is what happens in their neighbourhood. Anywhere else, not of interest. They regard London with suspicion and freuqently dislike, never mind Brussels. Which is I would suggest why it has been one and the same time a Liberal Democrat stronghold and happy hunting ground for Brexit.
    The Lib Dems in the South West did not realise that a lot of their voters were eurosceptic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758
    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    I shook on a bet, whose take up was conditional on Scottish independence, that an independent Scotland woul have a Conservative or successor party government within 20 years of going it alone.

    Even though the condition that would have triggered the bet into life was not met, I feel very well vindicated by Scottish Polling these days.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    "Oh no, you did NOT shoot that green shit at me!"
    - Will Smith in "Independence Day".
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2019
    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    I have found an interesting comment from Vote UK Forum:
    'It is the view of a few SNP MPs in this area - and I agree with them - that if it looks likely Labour will win the next election, Labour will take around a dozen seats off the SNP in the Clyde valley area.'
    People can make of that what they wish!


    One makes as much of it as of any other anecdote which flies in the face of opinion poll and other local election evidence all of which suggests Labour is going backwards in Scotland.
    The polling evidence - for Westminster elections in Scotland - is not that clear at all , but Labour have recently experienced two poor Local By election results there.
    The most recent polls show both Tories and SNP stable or rising with Labour falling - so actually - very clear.
    The most regular pollsters in Scotland appear to be Survation and Panelbase.
    Survation's most recent surveys -
    01/03/19 - 04/03/19 - SNP 40 Con 24 Lab 23 LD 8
    09/11/18 - 13/11/18 - SNP 39 Con26 Lab 24 LD 8
    20/10/18 - 02/11/18 - SNP 40 Con 27 Lab 23 LD 7
    18/10/18 - 21/10/18 - SNP 36.5 Con 27.5 Lab 26 LD 7.5
    03/10/18 - 05/10/18 - SNP 37 Con 28 Lab 26 LD 6
    28/09/18 - 02/10/18 - SNP 41 Con 26 Lab 24 LD 7
    05/07/18 - 10/07/18 - SNP 42 Con 24 Lab 23 LD 8

    I am not sure that I can see a clear trend over that 8 month period.

    Panelbase most recent surveys-
    28/02/19 - 06/03/19 - SNP 37 Con 27 Lab 22 LD 7
    30/11/18 - 05/12/18 - SNP 37 Con 26 Lab 26 LD 6
    02/11/18 - 07/11/18 - SNP 37 Con 28 Lab 25 LD 7
    28/09/18 - 04/10/18 - SNP 38 Con 27 Lab 24 LD 6
    21/06/18 - 26/06/18 - SNP 38 Con 27 Lab 25 LD 7

    Again , there is not much which stands out there - maybe a slight dip in Labour support at beginning of March but that coincided with the TIG defections and the latest anti-Semitic row and was reflected in a drop in Labour support across GB with the Tories taking a clear lead for a few weeks. Nothing Scotland specific there - and there has been no recent polling.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    "Oh no, you did NOT shoot that green shit at me!"
    - Will Smith in "Independence Day".
    He left that to Julian Assange.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949



    Clinton's campaign director and Bill's chief of staff John Podesta is a big pusher for disclosure, Clinton of the Bill variety dropped a famously big hint about the supposed cover up in Ireland, he referred to a letter from a young boy about Roswell saying he hadn't been told either and he wants to know. The letter doesn't actually exist it transpires

    The key difference in my mind is that Trump might announce it as soon as he was told, whereas Clinton would have spent 6-12 months waiting on formal confirmation if it was a new discovery or probably gone along with the coverup if they know already.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Quincel said:



    Clinton's campaign director and Bill's chief of staff John Podesta is a big pusher for disclosure, Clinton of the Bill variety dropped a famously big hint about the supposed cover up in Ireland, he referred to a letter from a young boy about Roswell saying he hadn't been told either and he wants to know. The letter doesn't actually exist it transpires

    The key difference in my mind is that Trump might announce it as soon as he was told, whereas Clinton would have spent 6-12 months waiting on formal confirmation if it was a new discovery or probably gone along with the coverup if they know already.
    Clinton is very deep state so yeah she'd do as shes told! Trump is a loose cannon for sure
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited April 2019
    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    A few years ago the University of Lund published a study focused on what personal steps make the biggest difference. One of the 5 big hitters was, surprisingly, moving to green energy. And for me at least the cost difference is well under £50 per year via the price comparison sites. The others were (in no order):

    1. Ditching a car;
    2. Going vegan;
    3. Stopping flying ('Cutting one transatlantic flight per year'); and
    4. Having one fewer child (By far the most controversial and possibly the most significant).

    Even if you ignore #4 as harder to measure and more unpredictable (who knows what lifestyle choices they will make and what technology will be available to them) I think the others are a solid evidence-based roadmap for trying to have a serious impact on a personal level. I'm up to about 2.5 out of 4 (not vegan or even veggie, still fly sometimes, green electricity but gas heating). I hope to stop flying after a family trip this year, but it can be surprisingly difficult societally to turn down certain family or work trips.

    https://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/article/the-four-lifestyle-choices-that-most-reduce-your-carbon-footprint
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited April 2019
    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    Humanity could just have a mass suicide pact! That'd solve the problem! :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    The numbers I crunched from early polling actually suggested a 6 way split for SW, which amused me.

    But again caveat: I used 2014 regional strengths and not early poillng subsets suggesting Brexit doing somewhat better in South and somewhat worse in North than 2014, and thus further suggesting the type of pure Tory -> Farage swing that was posited but didn't quite happen for GE 2015.

    I'd fully expect Brexit to gain at least 2 MEPs in SW, maybe even 3.
    It's a low income region. Polls show lower income people are the more concerned about no deal Brexit.
    I think that's an unhelpful generalisation. The South West is pretty diverse. You have Cornwall, which I think is the poorest county in England and heavily reliant on tourism, but you have Bournemouth and Bristol which are both wealthy.

    The more pertinent point I would suggest is people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial. What matters to them is what happens in their neighbourhood. Anywhere else, not of interest. They regard London with suspicion and freuqently dislike, never mind Brussels. Which is I would suggest why it has been one and the same time a Liberal Democrat stronghold and happy hunting ground for Brexit.
    LOL "The South West is pretty diverse..." followed by "...people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial"
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    Humanity could just have a mass suicide pact! That'd solve the problem! :D
    If you believe some reports then we already do. Other reports are less alarmist, but the consensus ones are plenty bad imho.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758
    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    A few years ago the University of Lund published a study focused on what personal steps make the biggest difference. One of the 5 big hitters was, surprisingly, moving to green energy. And for me at least the cost difference is well under £50 per year via the price comparison sites. The others were (in no order):

    1. Ditching a car;
    2. Going vegan;
    3. Stopping flying ('Cutting one transatlantic flight per year'); and
    4. Having one fewer child (By far the most controversial and possibly the most significant).

    Even if you ignore #4 as harder to measure and more unpredictable (who knows what lifestyle choices they will make and what technology will be available to them) I think the others are a solid evidence-based roadmap for trying to have a serious impact on a personal level. I'm up to about 3 out of 4 (not vegan or even veggie, still fly sometimes, green electricity but gas heating).

    https://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/article/the-four-lifestyle-choices-that-most-reduce-your-carbon-footprint
    Thanks. I will get onto renewable tariffs tomorrow. It will be embarrassing if the difference is that small. My wife's car is clapped out. We will look to replace it with at least a hybrid. She almost exclusively does town driving so that should work. Veganism is frankly not going to happen and my contribution to population growth (3) is already fixed. But more fish and less meat is already indicated.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    HYUFD said:

    My MP Dame Eleanor Laing as Deputy Speaker is certainly in the running to succeed Bercow and would do an excellent job (she was also a Leaver but backed May's Deal)

    I guess a Labour candidate is likely to win if the contest is held in the current parliament. It is Labour's turn to provide a speaker, and they will be more likely to unite behind one of their own than the Tories, who will inevitably see the contest through the prism of Brexit and try to elect a leaver.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    Humanity could just have a mass suicide pact! That'd solve the problem! :D
    Or there's always the giant comet associated with the Taurid meteor stream...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    Humanity could just have a mass suicide pact! That'd solve the problem! :D
    Or just maybe Thanos had a point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour candidates for Euro elections
    South West Region

    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    The numbers I crunched from early polling actually suggested a 6 way split for SW, which amused me.

    But again caveat: I used 2014 regional strengths and not early poillng subsets suggesting Brexit doing somewhat better in South and somewhat worse in North than 2014, and thus further suggesting the type of pure Tory -> Farage swing that was posited but didn't quite happen for GE 2015.

    I'd fully expect Brexit to gain at least 2 MEPs in SW, maybe even 3.
    It's a low income region. Polls show lower income people are the more concerned about no deal Brexit.
    I think that's an unhelpful generalisation. The South West is pretty diverse. You have Cornwall, which I think is the poorest county in England and heavily reliant on tourism, but you have Bournemouth and Bristol which are both wealthy.

    The more pertinent point I would suggest is people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial. What matters to them is what happens in their neighbourhood. Anywhere else, not of interest. They regard London with suspicion and freuqently dislike, never mind Brussels. Which is I would suggest why it has been one and the same time a Liberal Democrat stronghold and happy hunting ground for Brexit.
    LOL "The South West is pretty diverse..." followed by "...people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial"
    Damn :smiley:

    Although in all seriousness, one reason it is so diverse is because it is so parochial.

    It's more amusing really that I've criticised somebody else for generalising...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Clare Moody MEP
    Andrew Adonis
    Jayne Kirkham
    Neil Guild
    Yvonne Atkinson
    Sadik Al Hassan

    So he's only second. Good chance he won't get elected anyway.
    In the South west, he's almost certain not to be elected.

    There are only four seats up. Brexit will top the polls, and so get first shot at the second seat. And then there are the greens, the conservatives and the libdems.

    The only real question is whether the libdems/greens get the fourth seat, or whether brexit gets it
    There are actually six seats up in the SW region!
    Oops
    The numbers I crunched from early polling actually suggested a 6 way split for SW, which amused me.

    But again caveat: I used 2014 regional strengths and not early poillng subsets suggesting Brexit doing somewhat better in South and somewhat worse in North than 2014, and thus further suggesting the type of pure Tory -> Farage swing that was posited but didn't quite happen for GE 2015.

    I'd fully expect Brexit to gain at least 2 MEPs in SW, maybe even 3.
    It's a low income region. Polls show lower income people are the more concerned about no deal Brexit.
    I think that's an unhelpful generalisation. The South West is pretty diverse. You have Cornwall, which I think is the poorest county in England and heavily reliant on tourism, but you have Bournemouth and Bristol which are both wealthy.

    The more pertinent point I would suggest is people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial. What matters to them is what happens in their neighbourhood. Anywhere else, not of interest. They regard London with suspicion and freuqently dislike, never mind Brussels. Which is I would suggest why it has been one and the same time a Liberal Democrat stronghold and happy hunting ground for Brexit.
    LOL "The South West is pretty diverse..." followed by "...people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial"
    Damn :smiley:

    Although in all seriousness, one reason it is so diverse is because it is so parochial.

    It's more amusing really that I've criticised somebody else for generalising...
    We all do it. :smile:

    This part of the SW (Dorset) is not especially anti-London imo because quite a few people have moved here from London and many others work or used to work in London.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    A few years ago the University of Lund published a study focused on what personal steps make the biggest difference. One of the 5 big hitters was, surprisingly, moving to green energy. And for me at least the cost difference is well under £50 per year via the price comparison sites. The others were (in no order):

    1. Ditching a car;
    2. Going vegan;
    3. Stopping flying ('Cutting one transatlantic flight per year'); and
    4. Having one fewer child (By far the most controversial and possibly the most significant).

    Even if you ignore #4 as harder to measure and more unpredictable (who knows what lifestyle choices they will make and what technology will be available to them) I think the others are a solid evidence-based roadmap for trying to have a serious impact on a personal level. I'm up to about 2.5 out of 4 (not vegan or even veggie, still fly sometimes, green electricity but gas heating). I hope to stop flying after a family trip this year, but it can be surprisingly difficult societally to turn down certain family or work trips.

    https://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/article/the-four-lifestyle-choices-that-most-reduce-your-carbon-footprint
    As a childless meat eater I reckon I'm doing more than a vegan with a gaggle of sprogs.

    Human extinction is the best solution to the earth's problems.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    This part of the SW (Dorset) is not especially anti-London imo because quite a few people have moved here from London and many others work or used to work in London.

    And yet elsewhere that is itself a source of tension because incomers push up property prices (or buy second homes/holiday lets) which freeze out the locals.

    Good night one and all.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    DavidL said:

    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    A few years ago the University of Lund published a study focused on what personal steps make the biggest difference. One of the 5 big hitters was, surprisingly, moving to green energy. And for me at least the cost difference is well under £50 per year via the price comparison sites. The others were (in no order):

    1. Ditching a car;
    2. Going vegan;
    3. Stopping flying ('Cutting one transatlantic flight per year'); and
    4. Having one fewer child (By far the most controversial and possibly the most significant).

    Even if you ignore #4 as harder to measure and more unpredictable (who knows what lifestyle choices they will make and what technology will be available to them) I think the others are a solid evidence-based roadmap for trying to have a serious impact on a personal level. I'm up to about 3 out of 4 (not vegan or even veggie, still fly sometimes, green electricity but gas heating).

    https://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/article/the-four-lifestyle-choices-that-most-reduce-your-carbon-footprint
    Thanks. I will get onto renewable tariffs tomorrow. It will be embarrassing if the difference is that small. My wife's car is clapped out. We will look to replace it with at least a hybrid. She almost exclusively does town driving so that should work. Veganism is frankly not going to happen and my contribution to population growth (3) is already fixed. But more fish and less meat is already indicated.
    I salute your attitude. Veganism does not have to happen to make a contribution. Try one meal a week to start with. The range, quality and availability of ingredients has improved markedly recently. Quorn sausage toad in the hole is good, as is quorn curry with coconut milk. And there are plenty of types of tofu in supermarkets for stir fries.

    Ps, I speak as a lapsed vegan.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    DavidL said:

    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    A few years ago the University of Lund published a study focused on what personal steps make the biggest difference. One of the 5 big hitters was, surprisingly, moving to green energy. And for me at least the cost difference is well under £50 per year via the price comparison sites. The others were (in no order):

    1. Ditching a car;
    2. Going vegan;
    3. Stopping flying ('Cutting one transatlantic flight per year'); and
    4. Having one fewer child (By far the most controversial and possibly the most significant).

    Even if you ignore #4 as harder to measure and more unpredictable (who knows what lifestyle choices they will make and what technology will be available to them) I think the others are a solid evidence-based roadmap for trying to have a serious impact on a personal level. I'm up to about 3 out of 4 (not vegan or even veggie, still fly sometimes, green electricity but gas heating).

    https://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/article/the-four-lifestyle-choices-that-most-reduce-your-carbon-footprint
    Thanks. I will get onto renewable tariffs tomorrow. It will be embarrassing if the difference is that small. My wife's car is clapped out. We will look to replace it with at least a hybrid. She almost exclusively does town driving so that should work. Veganism is frankly not going to happen and my contribution to population growth (3) is already fixed. But more fish and less meat is already indicated.
    Re: cars I'd also suggest considering an e-bike. You can get trailers/pannier bags etc for cargo, and I know lot of people who have tried them for replacing one car have been converts. Not sure if you can hire one for a month or something to trial it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    edited April 2019
    Scott_P said:

    The redacting isn't perfect. Page 188 of volume 1 is very fully redacted but the index at the start tells you it's about wikileaks.

    https://twitter.com/TheAmadisKay/status/1118898590271836160
    Perhaps a histogram would have been better.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    ydoethur said:

    This part of the SW (Dorset) is not especially anti-London imo because quite a few people have moved here from London and many others work or used to work in London.

    And yet elsewhere that is itself a source of tension because incomers push up property prices (or buy second homes/holiday lets) which freeze out the locals.

    Good night one and all.
    Yes, it is a source of tension but it does also add to the diversity of views; the incomers have a vote too!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    edited April 2019
    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    The redacting isn't perfect. Page 188 of volume 1 is very fully redacted but the index at the start tells you it's about wikileaks.

    https://twitter.com/TheAmadisKay/status/1118898590271836160
    Perhaps a histogram would have been better.
    Looks like a DNA read-out to me.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    Humanity could just have a mass suicide pact! That'd solve the problem! :D
    Or just maybe Thanos had a point.
    It's a good observation, It reminds me of something interesting, something relevant, something, oh, oh, let me think, oh I know! (snaps fingers)

    Pause.

    Oh, bugger... :(
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    It is Labour's turn to provide a speaker....


    They've had three in a row now, stretching back almost 30 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Even MPs are going for him now? They're losing it. What plans does he have besides faux churchillian rhetoric?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    The more pertinent point I would suggest is people across the whole area from Tewkesbury in the north right down to Falmouth tend to be very insular and parochial. What matters to them is what happens in their neighbourhood. Anywhere else, not of interest. They regard London with suspicion and freuqently dislike, never mind Brussels. Which is I would suggest why it has been one and the same time a Liberal Democrat stronghold and happy hunting ground for Brexit.

    Christ, you know you are having a bad day when you get called insular and parochial by a Welshman.

    You are right, mind you. I regard everything east of Exeter as abroad.
    It's even worse than that. I'm a Welshman who was brought up in the Forest of Dean. There 'local' is the village, and further afield is 'way off.'

    Edit - true story. Many years ago I met a man in Kingham in Gloucestershire who must have been approaching sixty, who said he had only left Kingham once in his life. I was rather startled and asked where he had gone. 'Oh, way off,' he said. 'It were Chipping Norton.'

    (Anyone who doesn't get it, look at a map.)
    Kingham is in Oxfordshire.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The Labour MEP toping the EM list has a few things right:

    https://twitter.com/Rory_Palmer/status/1118804272085389313?s=19

    Actually the second on the Labour EM list sounds decent too, Leonie Mathers. Hucknall born, former aide to Yvette Cooper. That may well be where my tactical vote goes. Under Dehondt a second Labour MEP may well be a a better outcome than the rather less likely Green or LD.
    The Labour MEP selections are quite interesting and give some hope to those of us who hope that the party is not completely lost to the Corbynites. There has been no attempt to deselect sitting MEPs, despite the fact that hardly any of them are Corbyn supporters and the selection of Adonis, marmite though he is, in a potentially winnable position sends quite a powerful message to remainers and PV campaigners who might be thinking about switching to TIG or the Lib Dems.
    Possibly, there were strong rumours of attempted shenanigans, though these were defeated.

    https://twitter.com/sarah_richens/status/1118215909385101314?s=19

    After Attenborough, I may think a little harder.I may go Green. I am no fan of Newton Dunn who is top on the LD list.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:

    The redacting isn't perfect. Page 188 of volume 1 is very fully redacted but the index at the start tells you it's about wikileaks.

    https://twitter.com/TheAmadisKay/status/1118898590271836160
    Perhaps a histogram would have been better.
    Looks like a DNA read-out to me.
    I thought that to. I think it's for an orange overweight elderly man... :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Andrew said:

    It is Labour's turn to provide a speaker....


    They've had three in a row now, stretching back almost 30 years.
    Its not their fault Bercow is so hostile to his former party whenever he gets the chance.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Blunt is wasting his time. Bercow is protected by Tory Remainers like Grieve, Letwin and Clarke acting alongside Labour etc. Trying to remove him is a sign of the intellectual bankruptcy of MPs on all sides of the House just as allowing him to stay despite his evident bias on matters like Brexit brings British politics into disrepute and makes it at international laughing stock.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:
    So the anger at pivoting to trying a deal with labour.. how do they propose to pass a deal without that given they cannot make the EU give the DUP what they want? Given no deal will not be supported either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Quincel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    Humanity could just have a mass suicide pact! That'd solve the problem! :D
    If you believe some reports then we already do. Other reports are less alarmist, but the consensus ones are plenty bad imho.
    Yes, Med temperatures in the South, saving on holiday bills and a boost for English wine, albeit with greater risk of flooding too.

    In any case it is China, the USA and India who need to move to more renewables, what we do will make little difference either way
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    A few years ago the University of Lund published a study focused on what personal steps make the biggest difference. One of the 5 big hitters was, surprisingly, moving to green energy. And for me at least the cost difference is well under £50 per year via the price comparison sites. The others were (in no order):

    1. Ditching a car;
    2. Going vegan;
    3. Stopping flying ('Cutting one transatlantic flight per year'); and
    4. Having one fewer child (By far the most controversial and possibly the most significant).

    Even if you ignore #4 as harder to measure and more unpredictable (who knows what lifestyle choices they will make and what technology will be available to them) I think the others are a solid evidence-based roadmap for trying to have a serious impact on a personal level. I'm up to about 3 out of 4 (not vegan or even veggie, still fly sometimes, green electricity but gas heating).

    https://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/article/the-four-lifestyle-choices-that-most-reduce-your-carbon-footprint
    Thanks. I will get onto renewable tariffs tomorrow. It will be embarrassing if the difference is that small. My wife's car is clapped out. We will look to replace it with at least a hybrid. She almost exclusively does town driving so that should work. Veganism is frankly not going to happen and my contribution to population growth (3) is already fixed. But more fish and less meat is already indicated.
    I salute your attitude. Veganism does not have to happen to make a contribution. Try one meal a week to start with. The range, quality and availability of ingredients has improved markedly recently. Quorn sausage toad in the hole is good, as is quorn curry with coconut milk. And there are plenty of types of tofu in supermarkets for stir fries.

    Ps, I speak as a lapsed vegan.
    Linda McCartney sausages are far better than quorn, and make a fine toad in the hole.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    My MP Dame Eleanor Laing as Deputy Speaker is certainly in the running to succeed Bercow and would do an excellent job (she was also a Leaver but backed May's Deal)

    I guess a Labour candidate is likely to win if the contest is held in the current parliament. It is Labour's turn to provide a speaker, and they will be more likely to unite behind one of their own than the Tories, who will inevitably see the contest through the prism of Brexit and try to elect a leaver.
    Bercow has effectively already been a Labour Speaker, the Tories wanted Sir George Young and before Bercow we had 2 more Labour Speakers, Michael Martin and Betty Boothroyd
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    So the anger at pivoting to trying a deal with labour.. how do they propose to pass a deal without that given they cannot make the EU give the DUP what they want? Given no deal will not be supported either.
    It does not need to be supported, No Deal is the default still if the Withdrawal Agreement is not passed by the end of October, the Commons can request another extension but that relies on the EU agreeing again and Macron not vetoing this time
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    Humanity could just have a mass suicide pact! That'd solve the problem! :D
    If you believe some reports then we already do. Other reports are less alarmist, but the consensus ones are plenty bad imho.
    Yes, Med temperatures in the South, saving on holiday bills and a boost for English wine, albeit with greater risk of flooding too.

    In any case it is China, the USA and India who need to move to more renewables, what we do will make little difference either way
    Very complacent attitude, and quite a lot of progress on climate change with many emerging economies. Trump is a selfish dumbass but we all knew that already.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    DavidL said:

    Quincel said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    A few years ago the University of Lund published a study focused on what personal steps make the biggest difference. One of the 5 big hitters was, surprisingly, moving to green energy. And for me at least the cost difference is well under £50 per year via the price comparison sites. The others were (in no order):

    1. Ditching a car;
    2. Going vegan;
    3. Stopping flying ('Cutting one transatlantic flight per year'); and
    4. Having one fewer child (By far the most controversial and possibly the most significant).

    Even if you ignore #4 as harder to measure and more unpredictable (who knows what lifestyle choices they will make and what technology will be available to them) I think the others are a solid evidence-based roadmap for trying to have a serious impact on a personal level. I'm up to about 3 out of 4 (not vegan or even veggie, still fly sometimes, green electricity but gas heating).

    https://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/article/the-four-lifestyle-choices-that-most-reduce-your-carbon-footprint
    Thanks. I will get onto renewable tariffs tomorrow. It will be embarrassing if the difference is that small. My wife's car is clapped out. We will look to replace it with at least a hybrid. She almost exclusively does town driving so that should work. Veganism is frankly not going to happen and my contribution to population growth (3) is already fixed. But more fish and less meat is already indicated.

    100% renewable energy, globally, is a big ask - but it is technically quite feasible.
    There’s a very good (and lengthy) recent study here:
    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Manish_Ram2/publication/320934766_Global_Energy_System_based_on_100_Renewable_Energy_-_Power_Sector/links/5bbdae9e299bf1049b78a3b2/Global-Energy-System-based-on-100-Renewable-Energy-Power-Sector.pdf?origin=publication_detail
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited April 2019
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    So the anger at pivoting to trying a deal with labour.. how do they propose to pass a deal without that given they cannot make the EU give the DUP what they want? Given no deal will not be supported either.
    It does not need to be supported, No Deal is the default still if the Withdrawal Agreement is not passed by the end of October, the Commons can request another extension but that relies on the EU agreeing again and Macron not vetoing this time
    Which I do not think he would. Why then if not now? The EU blinked and allowed a blind extension, theyd do it again. And the point about no deal not being g supported is that if means a government trying for it will fail- wed get another Letwin Cooper Bill, and if the EU look like saying no if we dont provide a reason the commons would come up with something.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Attenborough. A slightly annoying mixture of the portentous and the alarming. But still.

    I need to stop buying air freighted vegetables. Should they have to bear a logo showing that they are?

    I need to cut back on beef (lamb already off the agenda for health reasons).

    I need to think seriously about and investigate the cost of renewable energy tariffs.

    I will not buy another diesel car.

    What else? There must be more. Most of the damage to the climate is not happening here. Surely our aid budget should be focused on reducing the extent of climate change by protecting forests, improving recycling in the third world, helping them to develop renewable energy systems etc.

    Humanity could just have a mass suicide pact! That'd solve the problem! :D
    If you believe some reports then we already do. Other reports are less alarmist, but the consensus ones are plenty bad imho.
    Yes, Med temperatures in the South, saving on holiday bills and a boost for English wine, albeit with greater risk of flooding too.

    In any case it is China, the USA and India who need to move to more renewables, what we do will make little difference either way
    Very complacent attitude, and quite a lot of progress on climate change with many emerging economies. Trump is a selfish dumbass but we all knew that already.

    Does anyone else on PB remember rain?

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Blunt is wasting his time. Bercow is protected by Tory Remainers like Grieve, Letwin and Clarke acting alongside Labour etc. Trying to remove him is a sign of the intellectual bankruptcy of MPs on all sides of the House just as allowing him to stay despite his evident bias on matters like Brexit brings British politics into disrepute and makes it at international laughing stock.

    Seeing as it has been stated that the Government is onside with getting rid of him, I thought that proposition would be. Leave now and you can be a Lord. Do not leave now and the Tory party will not sanction that elevation.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    kle4 said:

    Even MPs are going for him now? They're losing it. What plans does he have besides faux churchillian rhetoric?

    He can’t do Churchill. Not even Cod-style. But he should succeed May. Johnson deserves total humiliation at home and abroad.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    marke09 said:
    Most places in England are having local elections this year. Notable exceptions are London, Birmingham and Cornwall, plus a few others.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    So the anger at pivoting to trying a deal with labour.. how do they propose to pass a deal without that given they cannot make the EU give the DUP what they want? Given no deal will not be supported either.
    It does not need to be supported, No Deal is the default still if the Withdrawal Agreement is not passed by the end of October, the Commons can request another extension but that relies on the EU agreeing again and Macron not vetoing this time
    Which I do not think he would. Why then if not now? The EU blinked and allowed a blind extension, theyd do it again. And the point about no deal not being g supported is that if means a government trying for it will fail- wed get another Letwin Cooper Bill, and if the EU look like saying no if we dont provide a reason the commons would come up with something.
    Quite. The EU will not want to kick a member out - France might huff and puff but the fact is that turning the UK into a humiliated supplicant unable to decide how, or even if, to leave is actually a very good result for the EU27. The UK will be shorn of political influence but still paying the bills - what's not to like for the 27?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Blunt is wasting his time. Bercow is protected by Tory Remainers like Grieve, Letwin and Clarke acting alongside Labour etc. Trying to remove him is a sign of the intellectual bankruptcy of MPs on all sides of the House just as allowing him to stay despite his evident bias on matters like Brexit brings British politics into disrepute and makes it at international laughing stock.

    Seeing as it has been stated that the Government is onside with getting rid of him, I thought that proposition would be. Leave now and you can be a Lord. Do not leave now and the Tory party will not sanction that elevation.

    Blunt is wasting his time. Bercow is protected by Tory Remainers like Grieve, Letwin and Clarke acting alongside Labour etc. Trying to remove him is a sign of the intellectual bankruptcy of MPs on all sides of the House just as allowing him to stay despite his evident bias on matters like Brexit brings British politics into disrepute and makes it at international laughing stock.

    Seeing as it has been stated that the Government is onside with getting rid of him, I thought that proposition would be. Leave now and you can be a Lord. Do not leave now and the Tory party will not sanction that elevation.
    That would be a poor move, because you can be sure the next government will sanction it and they'll look petty as well. Fact is not all Tories are in board with getting rid of Bercow and not enough others are. Indeed, for some he could do anything and be supported because hes more useful in place
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Blunt is wasting his time. Bercow is protected by Tory Remainers like Grieve, Letwin and Clarke acting alongside Labour etc. Trying to remove him is a sign of the intellectual bankruptcy of MPs on all sides of the House just as allowing him to stay despite his evident bias on matters like Brexit brings British politics into disrepute and makes it at international laughing stock.

    Seeing as it has been stated that the Government is onside with getting rid of him, I thought that proposition would be. Leave now and you can be a Lord. Do not leave now and the Tory party will not sanction that elevation.
    The government is actively seeking a Buckingham byelection?
This discussion has been closed.