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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is it Bye-bye to by-elections?

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited April 2019
    HYUFD said:
    Wonder if Farage could get Tarrant to stand at the Peterborough by election? ;)
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited April 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Wonder if Farage could get Tarrant to stand at Peterborough by election? ;)
    I doubt Tarrant wants to be an MP. If Peterborough is so winnable why does Farage not contest it or is he chicken? I actually suspect that if Jackson could not win Peterborough in 2017 as he was the incumbent and had a party machine ready to roll that Farage might suffer an embarrassment because he would not have the advantages that Jackson had. The media are just inflating Farage and his new party. It is all hype!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    An unlikely story. May has been too weak to carry out a major reshuffle since the general election. Hard to believe that such a reshuffle has been seriously considered recently.
    Indeed - a major source of her paralysis has been the the inability to pick one faction over the other in Cabinet for so long.
    Reshuffle? She's having a laugh, or one of her press officers is. She'll be lucky to survive the end of next week never mind sack anyone else.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Scott_P said:
    Not sure why this is labelled as 'exclusive'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Cameron's grand strategic plan to stop the Tories losing power because of UKIP is going so well isn't it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Scott_P said:
    Oh for goodness' sake. "Former council candidates". That includes someone who stood for one of the seven Little Snorting Parish Council seats in 1997 and didn't get in. If only 32 of 895 can manage that level of engagement, colour me unimpressed.
    Yet the failed candidate Annunziata Rees-Mogg, who has never held elected office was highlighted by Nigel Farage in his Brexit campaign party launch and given significant media coverage by Brexit newspapers for being the sister of a Tory MP. Nothing she has achieved just Jacobs sister! She lost both the seats she contested as a prospective Conservative Parliamentary candidate. Not much more to be said about her.
    Don't forgot though that Brexit Party is a howl of rage against the elite, the career politicians, the ones who don't reflect the ordinary, decent people.

    Who better than the rich daughter of Times editor, Telegraph journalist, pro-hunter and former Cameron 'A' lister to represent the hard working folk of the east midlands?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Cameron's grand strategic plan to stop the Tories losing power because of UKIP is going so well isn't it.

    LOL

    Drawn up by Baldrick himself
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Scott_P said:
    Oh for goodness' sake. "Former council candidates". That includes someone who stood for one of the seven Little Snorting Parish Council seats in 1997 and didn't get in. If only 32 of 895 can manage that level of engagement, colour me unimpressed.
    Yet the failed candidate Annunziata Rees-Mogg, who has never held elected office was highlighted by Nigel Farage in his Brexit campaign party launch and given significant media coverage by Brexit newspapers for being the sister of a Tory MP. Nothing she has achieved just Jacobs sister! She lost both the seats she contested as a prospective Conservative Parliamentary candidate. Not much more to be said about her.
    Don't forgot though that Brexit Party is a howl of rage against the elite, the career politicians, the ones who don't reflect the ordinary, decent people.

    Who better than the rich daughter of Times editor, Telegraph journalist, pro-hunter and former Cameron 'A' lister to represent the hard working folk of the east midlands?
    Good for a story though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    73% for the comedian at the Ukrainian presidential election is a pretty massive defeat for the establishment in Ukraine, but you also feel it shows how vulnerable establishment candidates might be in lots of other countries as well in the social media age.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    HYUFD said:
    That Blatter observation is something that leavers would be wise to target. Obvious fraud / unethical behaviour such as at Oxfam or VW is a no win situation for opponents - they hardly want to come out for them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 98
    Floater said:

    Cameron's grand strategic plan to stop the Tories losing power because of UKIP is going so well isn't it.

    LOL

    Drawn up by Baldrick himself
    2005 Labour win third term on a manifesto pledge of a referendum on the EU treaty
    2010 Lib Dems win record vote share on a manifesto pledge of EU referendum
    2014 UKIP win European elections on a platform of leaving the EU
    2015 Conservatives win a majority on a manifesto pledge of EU referendum
    2016 Leave wins a majority on a massive turnout
    2017 Leave supporting parties win 80% of votes
    2019 Brexit Party to win European elections on a platform of hard Brexit

    The Tories problem is that they flirt with it but never fully embrace euroscepticism. Euroscepticism is an election winner and they just need to stop clutching their pearls about upsetting Remainers.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited April 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Wonder if Farage could get Tarrant to stand at Peterborough by election? ;)
    I doubt Tarrant wants to be an MP. If Peterborough is so winnable why does Farage not contest it or is he chicken? I actually suspect that if Jackson could not win Peterborough in 2017 as he was the incumbent and had a party machine ready to roll that Farage might suffer an embarrassment because he would not have the advantages that Jackson had. The media are just inflating Farage and his new party. It is all hype!
    From what we saw of the graceless Stewart Jackson on pb.com, it is likely that the Tories were handicapped by his candidacy. I doubt there was an “incumbency bonus”.

    I suspect Farage -- like Corbyn -- benefits hugely from people underestimating him.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    JackJack said:

    Floater said:

    Cameron's grand strategic plan to stop the Tories losing power because of UKIP is going so well isn't it.

    LOL

    Drawn up by Baldrick himself
    2005 Labour win third term on a manifesto pledge of a referendum on the EU treaty
    2010 Lib Dems win record vote share on a manifesto pledge of EU referendum
    2014 UKIP win European elections on a platform of leaving the EU
    2015 Conservatives win a majority on a manifesto pledge of EU referendum
    2016 Leave wins a majority on a massive turnout
    2017 Leave supporting parties win 80% of votes
    2019 Brexit Party to win European elections on a platform of hard Brexit

    The Tories problem is that they flirt with it but never fully embrace euroscepticism. Euroscepticism is an election winner and they just need to stop clutching their pearls about upsetting Remainers.
    Their problem isn't upsetting remainers, it's upsetting everybody, including leavers. Leavers may love the idea of setting fire to all Britain's existing trading arrangements but they wouldn't love the result of doing it, and they'd blame the results on the government's incompetence.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    viewcode said:
    I don't think you have to give money to them, you can read a couple of articles a week for free if you register. Thanks for the links though.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 98

    JackJack said:

    Floater said:

    Cameron's grand strategic plan to stop the Tories losing power because of UKIP is going so well isn't it.

    LOL

    Drawn up by Baldrick himself
    2005 Labour win third term on a manifesto pledge of a referendum on the EU treaty
    2010 Lib Dems win record vote share on a manifesto pledge of EU referendum
    2014 UKIP win European elections on a platform of leaving the EU
    2015 Conservatives win a majority on a manifesto pledge of EU referendum
    2016 Leave wins a majority on a massive turnout
    2017 Leave supporting parties win 80% of votes
    2019 Brexit Party to win European elections on a platform of hard Brexit

    The Tories problem is that they flirt with it but never fully embrace euroscepticism. Euroscepticism is an election winner and they just need to stop clutching their pearls about upsetting Remainers.
    Their problem isn't upsetting remainers, it's upsetting everybody, including leavers. Leavers may love the idea of setting fire to all Britain's existing trading arrangements but they wouldn't love the result of doing it, and they'd blame the results on the government's incompetence.
    We would have six months of trouble and then everything would start readjusting. We would be growing again by 2022 and everyone would be focused on Corbyn's terribleness.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:
    I don't think you have to give money to them, you can read a couple of articles a week for free if you register. Thanks for the links though.
    Gyles Brandreth once joked that he wanted his gravestone to read "no more [redacted] passwords". I try not to register for anything if I can avoid it... :(
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    New thread
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Difficult to read how the Ukraine result will work. Was there a pro-Russian candidate in the election? Is that the real story. It's hard to imagine an anti-corruption candidate being pro-Russian - yet Trump also ran on an anti-corruption platform, don't forget 'She's going to jail.' And he appears very close to a major oligarch.

    Apparently the winning candidate was bankrolled by former shareholders of a bank that was nationalised a couple of years ago - shareholders not happy with what the government decided their shares were worth.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    HS2

    The line in from the south into Manc through Stockport is full, zero capacity.

    Likewise the line into Brum.

    HS2 takes some of the capacity draining Pendos of the line into Manc from the south, freeing it up for many more commuter services into the city

    Allowing the local economy to thrive with more local services

    Sticking more double decker trains on the WCML or moving parliament does not achieve the same outcome

    Eight trains into MAN before 10am on a weekday:

    https://tinyurl.com/y4hodn9n

    Part of the issue seems to be that longer trains are needed and gradually that's being addressed.
    It's frequency

    Prestbury - rich Cheshire has 1tph

    Remove 1 Pendo / hr would give 2 or 3 extra slow commuters per hour
    It's at times like this that I realise just how big London is. Prestbury is around 16 miles from the centre of Manchester. That doesn't get you to the M25 from the centre of London.

    Prestbury station gets around 60,000 journeys to/from it each year. Perhaps the timetable is the limiting factor on its usage. But unless you build a lot of houses in the area, I can't see three trains per hour making much difference. And given the residents of the Golden Triangle, I can't imagine much support for Taylor Wimpey estates!
    The wealthy suburbs of London are wealthy because they are on railway lines.

    The wealthy suburbs of Manc are wealthy despite having awful transport connections to anywhere.
    Old Trafford has the highest revenue and gross profit per square foot of any Boots store.

    Just in case you needed to know that 😆
    It does not

    There is no Boots in Old Trafford
    It might have been Trafford Centre and it was about 7-8 years ago that Andy Hornby told me. But I assume that the Boots CEO had a better idea of his best performing stores than you have.

    (Ken High St was #2 FWIW)
    Another classic and gratuitous namedrop by Charles! ;)
This discussion has been closed.