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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next mo

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    stodge said:

    I am sure there will be plenty of Councillors who will blame their defeat on "national factors" and it is unfair sometimes

    It is, but on the other hand I've never heard a local councillor say "frankly we've been a bit shit recently but we did ok in the elections because our party is doing so well nationally", so my sympathy for them on that point is limited.
    Lol, good point. Good things are the result of my hard work, bad things the result of external misfortune
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    I would say that it is not impossible that just about the entire existing house of commons MPs will be swept aside when a GE is finally called, judging by these focus group findings.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/23/30-years-research-never-seen-public-despondent-politics/

    I just dont believe it. We revert to tribalism in the end. More might get swept away than normal but most of the same old sane old will be there.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    I know somebody in the Greens who is adamant that LD never contacted them about an alliance, despite publicly claiming they did
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Also if TIG fails, then thats a crying shame for democracy in this country. The stranglehold of both labour and the tories need to be smashed so new ideas and policies and people can come through.

    Well it’s unlikely to come from a party with no new ideas or policies is it?
    That does need time. But they can't be a one-policy thing.
    Individual policies may need time, but it's clear they have a more fundamental problem of having no coherent political position, ideology, or pitch to the voters. That's something that needed to be known and clearly broadcast from the first instant. As it is, all we've seen is that the challenge of naming themselves seems to have been beyond them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    Also if TIG fails, then thats a crying shame for democracy in this country. The stranglehold of both labour and the tories need to be smashed so new ideas and policies and people can come through.

    Well it’s unlikely to come from a party with no new ideas or policies is it?
    That does need time. But they can't be a one-policy thing.
    Individual policies may need time, but it's clear they have a more fundamental problem of having no coherent political position, ideology, or pitch to the voters. That's something that needed to be known and clearly broadcast from the first instant. As it is, all we've seen is that the challenge of naming themselves seems to have been beyond them.
    The name was chosen as something almost no one could object to. It allows each person to project their own imagined future onto it. Rather like Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    TBH, I get the impression Change UK MP's have mostly never had to deal with the 'down and dirty' bits of politics.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Would we have called them CUKLD or CHUKLD?
  • Sean_F said:

    It's possible for the Conservative Party to do ok at the Locals if voters decide to vote on local issues and the quality of candidates rather than for tribal reasons.

    I've often thought this is the way it should be. You shouldn't vote in the locals on the performance of the Westminster bunch; it makes no sense and encourages poor local government. The practical problem is that it's difficult for the ordinary Joe and Joanna to assess just how well his and her local Council is performing, and which if any of the Councillors are worth supporting regardless of Party.

    I will be voting in Tewkesbury's Council Elections for the first time in May. The Council is pretty much solid Tory and my general impression is that it does a decent job. I am intrigued to note that two of the Candidates that stood and won last time as Conservatives are standing as Independents this time round and opposing the official Blue Rosettes.

    No, I don't know what the back story is but will do some research. Meanwhile, if anyone here can help.....

    I'd expect the locals to be 2012-14 level of bad for the Conservatives , not 1993-96. The Conservatives' ratings are dire, but so too are their opponents'
    That's my expectation too for the Locals.

    Euros might be different. I honestly cannot think of a reason anyone would vote Conservative for them, other than force of habit. Since the opposition has major problems too, some startling results can be expected.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Quite. They pretty well agree with them about everything.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
  • stodge said:

    It's possible for the Conservative Party to do ok at the Locals if voters decide to vote on local issues and the quality of candidates rather than for tribal reasons.

    I've often thought this is the way it should be. You shouldn't vote in the locals on the performance of the Westminster bunch; it makes no sense and encourages poor local government. The practical problem is that it's difficult for the ordinary Joe and Joanna to assess just how well his and her local Council is performing, and which if any of the Councillors are worth supporting regardless of Party.

    Come on, seriously? It's the only opportunity voters have between elections to register their view on the progress or otherwise of any Government. Yes it's tough on the local councillors but that's politics and I imagine were the Conservatives 20 points ahead there'd be plenty on here urging people to back the Government.

    As to "how well the local Council is performing", everyone has their standards and there's no point comparing your Council with the Council next door because, short of moving house, you can't change the Council that provides your service though you can change its leadership and policy direction.

    In any case, Council performance is in the eye of the beholder and what's important to you. Clean streets may matter more to you than adequate care for the elderly or it may not.

    I am sure there will be plenty of Councillors who will blame their defeat on "national factors" and it is unfair sometimes but perhaps it's also a question of the divergence of importance between what the local council does and what the national Government does.
    Point taken.

    I'll do some local research and let you know what I find.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589

    Meanwhile last month's man Beto O'Rourke was last matched at 25.

    Anyone care to speculate on who next month's flavour of the month might be?

    Time to have a small interest? Is his meh-ness a blip or the true Beto?
    Possibly. He's not done anything awful, he's just suffered by comparison. He seems very bland though. You also don't get a second chance to make a first impression.
    I think he also made a huge error in not running for the Senate again - something which would have had almost universal support from the Democratic party, and benefitted both his chances and those of whoever ended up with the presidential nomination.
    Had he then won the seat - an eventuality more likely than his winning the current nomination battle - he would have been a prime contender for 2024 or 2028.

    (Similar considerations apply to Stacey Abrams, who is said still to be considering a run.)

    Impatience for a reason is good politics - as a character trait, less so.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Lib Dem activists are very exercised about the fact that TIG are "centrists" while Lib Dems are "liberals", usually pointing to TIG's Blairite authoritarian streak. Chuka's proposal of a new sort of National Service for 16-year olds is about as un-Lib Dem a policy as you can get.

    Whether liberal vs centrist is a useful distinction for getting power in an FPTP system I leave as an exercise to the reader.

    (Incidentally, I see we're to be blessed with another Trump visit in June. Was that the outcome of May's walking holiday this Easter? "I know what will really bring the country together and heal the wounds of Brexit - getting Donald Trump over again"? Sigh.)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    Sounds about right, well put.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Following on from the death threats to Nikki Morgan It's interesting to hear why SIR bill cash thinks it's appropriate to use the language of war in our relationship with Germany.

    (Other barking mad Brexiteers available on other stations)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0004f19 (Starts at 2hrs 50)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    Plus if you want centrism, there is a bigger pool of talent* with a greater chance of coming to power among either the leftier elements of con mps or the rightier of Labour, than among TIG.

    *I know, but it's relative, innit?

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    Indeed, and in TIG's case, that comes from a very Labour-tribal point of view.

    If you were a Labour MP between 2010 and 2015, like most of TIG, then you spent those years persuading everyone the Lib Dems are traitors, austerity enablers, etc. etc.; and you believe that view was proved correct by their collapse in 2015.

    Therefore the last thing you're going to do is join forces with the traitorous/treasonous/etc. Lib Dems.

    This is an utterly mistaken and short-sighted belief because, as always, Labour tribalists (which is pretty much all Labour MPs and most supporters) fail to see that most voters aren't tribal Labour, or in fact tribal anything. The Lib Dems do have a serious positioning problem right now, but it's not irreversible and certainly nothing like the pariah status that Labour think they have.

    If TIG fails, I wouldn't be surprised to see Allen or Wollaston jump ship to the Lib Dems. I would be amazed to see any of the ex-Labour figures do so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Lib Dem activists are very exercised about the fact that TIG are "centrists" while Lib Dems are "liberals", usually pointing to TIG's Blairite authoritarian streak. Chuka's proposal of a new sort of National Service for 16-year olds is about as un-Lib Dem a policy as you can get.

    Whether liberal vs centrist is a useful distinction for getting power in an FPTP system I leave as an exercise to the reader.

    (Incidentally, I see we're to be blessed with another Trump visit in June. Was that the outcome of May's walking holiday this Easter? "I know what will really bring the country together and heal the wounds of Brexit - getting Donald Trump over again"? Sigh.)
    And yet both must realise that under our system of politics, a successful party must be a relatively broad coalition if it is to break through.
    The real lack is a sufficiently persuasive leader to pull the coalition together.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Roger said:

    Following on from the death threats to Nikki Morgan It's interesting to hear why SIR bill cash thinks it's appropriate to use the language of war in our relationship with Germany.

    (Other barking mad Brexiteers available on other stations)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0004f19 (Starts at 2hrs 50)

    2 hrs 45 by my reckoning.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    (Incidentally, I see we're to be blessed with another Trump visit in June. Was that the outcome of May's walking holiday this Easter? "I know what will really bring the country together and heal the wounds of Brexit - getting Donald Trump over again"? Sigh.)

    I don't give a damn if it is protocol, we really should have found an excuse for getting out of that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    kle4 said:



    Same here, but for Eritrean food. Not being a metropolitan elite I've never had the opportunity to sample it ;)

    If you're ever in North London, my inexpensive local when I lived on the Holloway Road in Corbyn Central is

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Restaurant_Review-g186338-d10028267-Reviews-Bisha_Eritrean-London_England.html

    Essentially it's flatbread with a wide variety of mixed delicacies. If you're a genuine Eritrean you tear off bits of the flatbread and mop up chunks with your hands. But they're tolerant of effete Westerners like me who do it with a knife and fork, and the manager will cheerfully explain everything. I think the flatbread should be warmed, but that's my only criticism.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kle4 said:



    Same here, but for Eritrean food. Not being a metropolitan elite I've never had the opportunity to sample it ;)

    If you're ever in North London, my inexpensive local when I lived on the Holloway Road in Corbyn Central is

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Restaurant_Review-g186338-d10028267-Reviews-Bisha_Eritrean-London_England.html

    Essentially it's flatbread with a wide variety of mixed delicacies. If you're a genuine Eritrean you tear off bits of the flatbread and mop up chunks with your hands. But they're tolerant of effete Westerners like me who do it with a knife and fork, and the manager will cheerfully explain everything. I think the flatbread should be warmed, but that's my only criticism.
    If that's the stuff they call injera in Ethiopia, it's an acquired taste I never managed to acquire.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Roger said:

    Following on from the death threats to Nikki Morgan It's interesting to hear why SIR bill cash thinks it's appropriate to use the language of war in our relationship with Germany.

    (Other barking mad Brexiteers available on other stations)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0004f19 (Starts at 2hrs 50)

    2 hrs 45 by my reckoning.
    Thanks. At any other time it would be extraordinary wouldn't it but here and now it seems quite normal.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    And we come back to the problem of the LDs and Tiggers abusing the term Centrist.

    There are plenty of Centrist voters, but they aren’t politically where they think they are. If anything Centrists skew slightly Conservative vs Liberal. The trouble is the whole point is they are swingy between the different poles, rather than interested in a political pole itself such as Liberalism.

    Both LDs and Tiggers are more globalist and liberal than Centrists so ultimately their gene pool is a little shallow.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Lib Dem activists are very exercised about the fact that TIG are "centrists" while Lib Dems are "liberals", usually pointing to TIG's Blairite authoritarian streak. Chuka's proposal of a new sort of National Service for 16-year olds is about as un-Lib Dem a policy as you can get.

    Whether liberal vs centrist is a useful distinction for getting power in an FPTP system I leave as an exercise to the reader.

    (Incidentally, I see we're to be blessed with another Trump visit in June. Was that the outcome of May's walking holiday this Easter? "I know what will really bring the country together and heal the wounds of Brexit - getting Donald Trump over again"? Sigh.)
    Yes, this is a good point. I think most voters don't care about the lib dems' liberalism, but many of their activists and members do
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    And we come back to the problem of the LDs and Tiggers abusing the term Centrist.

    There are plenty of Centrist voters, but they aren’t politically where they think they are. If anything Centrists skew slightly Conservative vs Liberal. The trouble is the whole point is they are swingy between the different poles, rather than interested in a political pole itself such as Liberalism.

    Both LDs and Tiggers are more globalist and liberal than Centrists so ultimately their gene pool is a little shallow.
    On the other hand if you poll on policies like rail renationalisation you'd conclude that Corbyn is the centre
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Clinging to their old identities.
    Lib Dem activists are very exercised about the fact that TIG are "centrists" while Lib Dems are "liberals", usually pointing to TIG's Blairite authoritarian streak. Chuka's proposal of a new sort of National Service for 16-year olds is about as un-Lib Dem a policy as you can get.

    Whether liberal vs centrist is a useful distinction for getting power in an FPTP system I leave as an exercise to the reader.

    (Incidentally, I see we're to be blessed with another Trump visit in June. Was that the outcome of May's walking holiday this Easter? "I know what will really bring the country together and heal the wounds of Brexit - getting Donald Trump over again"? Sigh.)
    The Trump visit will be a huge annoyance mostly because it will be surrounded by either his few British cheerleaders, or people virtue signalling how much they hate him and overblown talk about how bad it is that we have him here, ignoring that he has had state visits to other places like France.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    First ConHome Tory members poll next Tory leader head to heads out

    Gove 43% Hunt 29%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-2-gove-43-per-cent-hunt-29-per-cent.html
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    And we come back to the problem of the LDs and Tiggers abusing the term Centrist.

    There are plenty of Centrist voters, but they aren’t politically where they think they are. If anything Centrists skew slightly Conservative vs Liberal. The trouble is the whole point is they are swingy between the different poles, rather than interested in a political pole itself such as Liberalism.

    Both LDs and Tiggers are more globalist and liberal than Centrists so ultimately their gene pool is a little shallow.
    On the other hand if you poll on policies like rail renationalisation you'd conclude that Corbyn is the centre
    It seems to me that people like to use the term "Centrist" to describe themselves (an awful habit in my opinion) because it casts anyone they disagree with as extremists of some sort. Pretty transparent really,
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    And we come back to the problem of the LDs and Tiggers abusing the term Centrist.

    There are plenty of Centrist voters, but they aren’t politically where they think they are. If anything Centrists skew slightly Conservative vs Liberal. The trouble is the whole point is they are swingy between the different poles, rather than interested in a political pole itself such as Liberalism.

    Both LDs and Tiggers are more globalist and liberal than Centrists so ultimately their gene pool is a little shallow.
    Agree. the centre gap is in a place popular with ordinary people but not with journalists, BBC, Westminster types: pragmatic, patriotic, supports many aspects of old 1950s Labour, supports flag, family and armed forces. Free market with heavy government intervention. Social housing. Anti benefits culture. A coalition of Lord Heseltine, Frank Field, Jess Phillips and Ken Clarke?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,235
    edited April 2019
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    Scott_P said:
    Thank fuck, one hopes this means that her almost daily slots on R4 will be curtailed.
    Doubtless they'll feel obliged to breathlessly report her proselytising on the stump though.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    Roger said:
    She's got the bacofoiled paedo vote sewn up.

    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1120576465857327105
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    There is something to be said for getting all the loonies under one umbrella.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    Scott_P said:
    I'd say 99% of voters have never heard of her. I hadn't until I heard her on AQ last week.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Scott_P said:
    Thank fuck, one hopes this means that her almost daily slots on R4 will be curtailed.
    Doubtless they'll feel obliged to breathlessly report her proselytising on the stump though.
    I do hope one of the other parties takes the broadcasters to court/electoral commission when/if they breech the guidelines during election periods. Brexit Party has no record in previous elections.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    Prompted by my surprise ladt week that there is still an SDP, I looked them up in their current iteration on Wikipedia. They strike me as pretty centrist.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    And we come back to the problem of the LDs and Tiggers abusing the term Centrist.

    There are plenty of Centrist voters, but they aren’t politically where they think they are. If anything Centrists skew slightly Conservative vs Liberal. The trouble is the whole point is they are swingy between the different poles, rather than interested in a political pole itself such as Liberalism.

    Both LDs and Tiggers are more globalist and liberal than Centrists so ultimately their gene pool is a little shallow.
    On the other hand if you poll on policies like rail renationalisation you'd conclude that Corbyn is the centre
    That’s not how it works, anyone can come up with a dualistic policy that forces a split on the left vs. right economic axis. That doesn’t mean that Corbyn is a centrist, the policy itself would be more accurately described as leftwing populist. in fact in total he is very far left on the spectrum, unsurprisingly. Very very very few voters hold a worldview in totality like his.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Scott_P said:
    At last a household name!

    (Or am I thinking of Katie Price?)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    And we come back to the problem of the LDs and Tiggers abusing the term Centrist.

    There are plenty of Centrist voters, but they aren’t politically where they think they are. If anything Centrists skew slightly Conservative vs Liberal. The trouble is the whole point is they are swingy between the different poles, rather than interested in a political pole itself such as Liberalism.

    Both LDs and Tiggers are more globalist and liberal than Centrists so ultimately their gene pool is a little shallow.
    On the other hand if you poll on policies like rail renationalisation you'd conclude that Corbyn is the centre
    That’s not how it works, anyone can come up with a dualistic policy that forces a split on the left vs. right economic axis. That doesn’t mean that Corbyn is a centrist, the policy itself would be more accurately described as leftwing populist. in fact in total he is very far left on the spectrum, unsurprisingly. Very very very few voters hold a worldview in totality like his.
    I think it is a bit of both.

    it is certainly true that we need not assume that the median voter is a centrist on a policy-by-policy basis.

    But at the level of worldview, it is unhelpful to describe yourself as a "centrist" if your views are neither in the centre nor particularly popular.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    Scott_P said:
    And 99.5% of voters have never heard of her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Why didn’t they just join the Lib Dems anyway?
    Many centrists believe there's a big gap in the centre of British politics waiting to be filled, because the alternative is that there's just not much support for their political position, which they'd rather not believe. But to believe that, they have to have a reason that the Lib Dems aren't doing well, which has generally been that they're unredeemably tainted by coalition/tuition fees/Vince
    And we come back to the problem of the LDs and Tiggers abusing the term Centrist.

    There are plenty of Centrist voters, but they aren’t politically where they think they are. If anything Centrists skew slightly Conservative vs Liberal. The trouble is the whole point is they are swingy between the different poles, rather than interested in a political pole itself such as Liberalism.

    Both LDs and Tiggers are more globalist and liberal than Centrists so ultimately their gene pool is a little shallow.
    On the other hand if you poll on policies like rail renationalisation you'd conclude that Corbyn is the centre
    It seems to me that people like to use the term "Centrist" to describe themselves (an awful habit in my opinion) because it casts anyone they disagree with as extremists of some sort. Pretty transparent really,
    That point hits a little close to home for me.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:
    She's got the bacofoiled paedo vote sewn up.

    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1120576465857327105
    Back to the drawing board Nige......why don't you start again and call yourselves UKIP...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I was going to ask how soon we thought it would be before one of these candidates had to step aside because of something untoward on social media but I may already be too late to that party.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Scott_P said:
    Surely there is a half-mad comedian who they want to put top of a regional list? Not a proper populist rebellion otherwise.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    I know it's easy to become desensitised to this stuff, but this struck me as actually crossing the line between populism and fascism.
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1120630405831569408
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    I took it to mean it was when the most people voted for the winner
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,884
    Scott_P said:
    Is the branding supposed to remind me of an Ostalgie shop?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is the branding supposed to remind me of an Ostalgie shop?
    It's like vintage Adidas.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is the branding supposed to remind me of an Ostalgie shop?
    It's like vintage Adidas.
    It looks like the hamburger menu present in every single mobile app. The one where UX research proves hardly anyone knows what it's meant to do.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Scott_P said:
    Wow. They make Veritas look professional.

    Whatever the result of the next General Election, it will be a pleasure to see these self-loving antidemocrats ejected from the Commons.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:
    Just your normal fruitloop who likens the EU to Nazi Germany:

    https://twitter.com/LanceForman/status/1105214619419901952
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Scott_P said:
    Surely there is a half-mad comedian who they want to put top of a regional list? Not a proper populist rebellion otherwise.
    .....Jim Davidson's available
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    kle4 said:
    Just your normal fruitloop who likens the EU to Nazi Germany:

    https://twitter.com/LanceForman/status/1105214619419901952
    Something both left and right are guilty of far too much
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,962
    When the Independent Group/TIGers/CUK seem to have an issue with name recognition, was it wise for Heidi to chuck this into the mix as well?

    "Change UK interim leader Heidi Allen said the party - and its 70 candidates across the country - would be the "natural home" for Remain voters.

    Ahead of the launch in Bristol, she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the candidate list was made up of former members of the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens - as well as some non-political individuals - and people were starting to call them "the Remain Alliance".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48021730
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    When the Independent Group/TIGers/CUK seem to have an issue with name recognition, was it wise for Heidi to chuck this into the mix as well?

    "Change UK interim leader Heidi Allen said the party - and its 70 candidates across the country - would be the "natural home" for Remain voters.

    Ahead of the launch in Bristol, she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the candidate list was made up of former members of the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens - as well as some non-political individuals - and people were starting to call them "the Remain Alliance".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48021730

    Rainbow Coaliation FTW...... Or not.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. They make Veritas look professional.

    Whatever the result of the next General Election, it will be a pleasure to see these self-loving antidemocrats ejected from the Commons.
    Rubbish name, rubbish logo, rubbish colours. I realise it wouldn't have been their top priority, but surely there are some die-hard Remainer branding and marketing people out there who could have helped CUK-TIG?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    kle4 said:
    Just your normal fruitloop who likens the EU to Nazi Germany:

    https://twitter.com/LanceForman/status/1105214619419901952
    Has he read the constitution of the party he's just joined?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is the branding supposed to remind me of an Ostalgie shop?
    It's like vintage Adidas.
    It looks like the hamburger menu present in every single mobile app. The one where UX research proves hardly anyone knows what it's meant to do.
    Their website has a hamburger menu on the right, and their confusingly similar logo on the left. A UX mistake in my book.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    kle4 said:
    Just your normal fruitloop who likens the EU to Nazi Germany:

    https://twitter.com/LanceForman/status/1105214619419901952
    Has he read the constitution of the party he's just joined?
    Is there one? The whole thing is Farage personal vehicle isn't it?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    glw said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. They make Veritas look professional.

    Whatever the result of the next General Election, it will be a pleasure to see these self-loving antidemocrats ejected from the Commons.
    Rubbish name, rubbish logo, rubbish colours. I realise it wouldn't have been their top priority, but surely there are some die-hard Remainer branding and marketing people out there who could have helped CUK-TIG?
    It should have been one of their top priorities. An appalling launch of a party which should be able to get a lot of traction with a some solid PR.

    Nigel figured this out a long long time ago.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. They make Veritas look professional.

    Whatever the result of the next General Election, it will be a pleasure to see these self-loving antidemocrats ejected from the Commons.
    Who picked those stripes - it looks like a display at John Lewis. ChuK - never knowingly over polled?!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    That CUK line up....

    Could it be more metro-elite?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Rachel Johnson is sitting there as well.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    I've realised what the CUKTIG stripes remind me of: Regional Railways circa 1990. Sorry, Sunil.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    I took it to mean it was when the most people voted for the winner
    It also depends what you mean by 'democratic exercise'.

    The Tories won a majority of 20 seats in 1992 despite 58% of voters voting for other parties. So it doesn't pass the test anyway - like almost all our general elections - as the majority clearly didn't get a result they wanted. I am sure the Tories agree!

    The 2016 referendum was a democratic exercise as the winning side got more than 50%.

    In the end we are talking about a difference of about 60,000 in turnout anyway!
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    isam said:

    I took it to mean it was when the most people voted for the winner
    How would that make it the largest democratic exercise?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    glw said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. They make Veritas look professional.

    Whatever the result of the next General Election, it will be a pleasure to see these self-loving antidemocrats ejected from the Commons.
    Rubbish name, rubbish logo, rubbish colours. I realise it wouldn't have been their top priority, but surely there are some die-hard Remainer branding and marketing people out there who could have helped CUK-TIG?
    Difficult to disagree with that evisceration.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    Roger said:

    Roger said:
    She's got the bacofoiled paedo vote sewn up.

    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1120576465857327105
    Back to the drawing board Nige......why don't you start again and call yourselves UKIP...
    A claim which Fox denies - if he had read the next sentence on her wikipedia page. The article doesn't of course source the exact quote she is supposed to have made or date reference when she is supposed to have said it.

    Fox is of course a left wing libertarian and supporter of free speech - which the Guardian isn't quite so keen on these days. Sky News and the BBC have been employing her as a commentator for years and she is an effective communicator - so they clearly haven't had any issues with her views.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    I took it to mean it was when the most people voted for the winner
    How would that make it the largest democratic exercise?
    Looks like I meant the largest mandate
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    glw said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. They make Veritas look professional.

    Whatever the result of the next General Election, it will be a pleasure to see these self-loving antidemocrats ejected from the Commons.
    Rubbish name, rubbish logo, rubbish colours. I realise it wouldn't have been their top priority, but surely there are some die-hard Remainer branding and marketing people out there who could have helped CUK-TIG?
    They obviously consulted a blanding expert by mistake.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589
    isam said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    I took it to mean it was when the most people voted for the winner
    How would that make it the largest democratic exercise?
    Looks like I meant the largest mandate
    And also by that measure, probably the most divisive mandate.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. They make Veritas look professional.

    Whatever the result of the next General Election, it will be a pleasure to see these self-loving antidemocrats ejected from the Commons.
    What's your objection? It looks ok. As for "antidemocrats", have you seen what the public now thinks?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1120640181881667584

    Pretty much. I've been to courses like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited April 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Didn't she try to stand for the LDs once?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't she try to stand for the LDs once?
    Maybe we'll see more of this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxDLuQxS1Ok
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't she try to stand for the LDs once?
    She joined the Lib Dems just before the 2017 GE and Tim Farron expressed support for her to become their London Mayoral candidate in 2020. Siobhan Benita got there ahead of her.

    Why she hasn't stuck with the LDs is odd - as she has more chance of becoming an MEP on their list.

    Of course it will be interesting where all these people are placed on the ChuK list (and also for the other parties) - how many of these 'celebs' are in effect paper candidates (i.e. not top of the list in their region so unlikely to get elected) and are just there for the 5 week campaign/ego trip and how many actually want to be an MEP for 5 years?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-johnson-liberal-democrats-mayor-2020-boris-johnson-brexit-a7710601.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't she try to stand for the LDs once?
    She joined the Lib Dems just before the 2017 GE and expressed an aspiration to be their London Mayoral candidate next year. Siobhan Benita got there ahead of her.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-johnson-liberal-democrats-mayor-2020-boris-johnson-brexit-a7710601.html
    Curious that now the LDs are apparently not to her tastes then. Unhappy with Vince perhaps?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,235
    Scott_P said:
    In fairness ChUK appears to have beaten the Brexit Party on pure name recognition if nothing else. The smoked-salmon man might be well know within his own field, but I can't see the man on the street being bowled over.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited April 2019
    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).
This discussion has been closed.