> @SouthamObserver said: > Turns out having an anti-Semitic, anti-EU, anti-NATO leader is not a sure path to power for Labour. Whoever would have thought it? > > I voted LibDem yesterday and it felt very good.
Are you going to start wearing sandals? You know you want to.
So far, obviously good for the Lib Dems, who are benefitting from being the only viable party other than Labour and the Conservatives in most places. Yes of course 2015 was a particularly bad year for them but they flatlined in 2017. They’re on the up. That was not inevitable.
And has precisely nothing to do with the efforts of Vince Cable.
"taking a photo of a ballot paper’s unique identification number is against the rules. People face a fine of £5,000 or six months in prison if they reveal how someone else voted, even accidentally." Hopefully no identification marks visible.
> @Casino_Royale said: > So far, obviously good for the Lib Dems, who are benefitting from being the only viable party other than Labour and the Conservatives in most places. Yes of course 2015 was a particularly bad year for them but they flatlined in 2017. They’re on the up. That was not inevitable. > > > And has precisely nothing to do with the efforts of Vince Cable.
If everyone else is falling back, all you have to do is stand still.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there. > > > > One day you’ll be discouraged by the root cause, your namesake. > > I'm not sure why I physically rolled my eyes in response to that, ingrained response I suppose. I disagree, although you might have guessed that.
One day you’ll get it. Probably too late. But you’ll get there.
> Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
What's your alternative plan?
Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped.
Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too.
Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps.
Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it.
Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously.
> @DavidL said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > So far, obviously good for the Lib Dems, who are benefitting from being the only viable party other than Labour and the Conservatives in most places. Yes of course 2015 was a particularly bad year for them but they flatlined in 2017. They’re on the up. That was not inevitable. > > Indeed. If I was a Tory who won my seat from the Lib Dems in 2015 I would be a lot more twitchy this morning than I had been when the Lib Dems seemed to be struggling to reach double figures. > > Weirdly UKIP are also doing well where they are standing. There is clearly an anti-incumbency bias.
Quite a lot of councillors listed as independents by the BBC are also ex-UKIP (eg in Thurrock, Barnsley, Hartlepool, Tendring).
> So far, obviously good for the Lib Dems, who are benefitting from being the only viable party other than Labour and the Conservatives in most places. Yes of course 2015 was a particularly bad year for them but they flatlined in 2017. They’re on the up. That was not inevitable.
>
>
> And has precisely nothing to do with the efforts of Vince Cable.
If everyone else is falling back, all you have to do is stand still.
Or lie still, sleeping, having had a nice mug of Horlicks and a hot bath.
I'm beginning to enjoy this Lib Dem avalanche... Hearing that some very good results are coming on places that were not on the map even a couple of weeks ago. Already the best night for the party since 2003.
> @Cicero said: > Feeling OK about my guesses of yesterday. So far I would say the Lib Dems are doing better than I guessed, in fact they may break 20% of the vote, which is a pretty spectacular change on current polls, especially when they are barely contesting half the seats up. The Tories are faring slightly worse, and may lose more than 900 overall. Labour are having an extremely ho-hum night and my prediction of net losses is not looking too bad. Also Others seem set to beat my prediction by a good margin, I forgot to add that I expected Green gains and UKIP losses in my tally of Others. > > I came through Cirencester on Tuesday and there was a bigger than usual display of Lib Dem posters, so I did have an inkling about Cotswold. > > I think that the Lib Dems will generally do better on the number of councils than the number of councillor gains would imply, because they are concentrating their vote in core areas: thus North Norfolk and Bath/NE Somerset. The Lib Dems are clearly back in business, and with a new leader in the offing and further progress in the Euros likely, I think we could see consistent high-teen poll ratings before the end of the summer, to match this evenings vote. I would be feeling pretty nervous tonight if I was a Tory MP for a seat that had been Lib Dem before 2015.
The other thing about the LibDems is that they lost a lot of activists during the coalition and in some areas their organisation is way behind where it used to be. To win seats as a third party needs organisation and effort - the seat gains show the results where they are still able to put this in. But there will be other areas where the LD vote will have risen without any seats to show for it: when the vote shares come to be worked out, these could be more flattering for the LDs than even the seat gains.
p.s. kudos for your Labour prediction; you were on the money and ahead of the ‘official’ analysts.
So far, obviously good for the Lib Dems, who are benefitting from being the only viable party other than Labour and the Conservatives in most places. Yes of course 2015 was a particularly bad year for them but they flatlined in 2017. They’re on the up. That was not inevitable.
And has precisely nothing to do with the efforts of Vince Cable.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there. > > > > What's your alternative plan? > > > > Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped. > > > > Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too. > > > > Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps. > > Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it. > > Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously.
Labour haven't been 'pushing towards remain'. They've been utterly leaderless and rudderless on Brexit, and MPs are just saying whatever sh*t they like.
The only thing Labour have been pushing towards is anti-Semitism and intolerance under your great hero.
Very poor result for Corbyn in Stoke where he began his campaign with labour losing 5 seats and conservatives gaining 8.
Very poor night for the conservatives but labour looking nowhere near government.
Congratulations to the Lib Dems, Greens and Independents.
It could and should have been all so different if the ERG had voted for the WDA on the first vote and not played fast and lose with the deal. JRM getting a kicking from the Lib Dems is ironic and I expect the rest of the day to continue in the same vein with many more conservative loses to the Lib Dems and labour in the doldrums
If the conservatives and labour mps have any sense they need to pass the WDA very quickly and leave by the 30th June
> > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
>
>
>
> One day you’ll be discouraged by the root cause, your namesake.
>
> I'm not sure why I physically rolled my eyes in response to that, ingrained response I suppose. I disagree, although you might have guessed that.
One day you’ll get it. Probably too late. But you’ll get there.
Whilst I don't your confidence in your own views about what you know will happen you are just one of many people who all know different outcomes will happen.
Whilst one of you will be right the vast majority will be wrong, because there are people on every side who know they are right.
To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them.
Why are they not?
Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out Corbyn mismanagement of his party.
The bad news for Labour in Stoke-on-Trent continues. Two very close results have just been declared, with the Tories beating Labour by 10 votes and 19 votes (7 votes over the City Inds).
Very poor result for Corbyn in Stoke where he began his campaign with labour losing 5 seats and conservatives gaining 8.
Very poor night for the conservatives but labour looking nowhere near government.
Congratulations to the Lib Dems, Greens and Independents.
It could and should have been all so different if the ERG had voted for the WDA on the first vote and not played fast and lose with the deal. JRM getting a kicking from the Lib Dems is ironic and I expect the rest of the day to continue in the same vein with many more conservative loses to the Lib Dems and labour in the doldrums
If the conservatives and labour mps have any sense they need to pass the WDA very quickly and leave by the 30th June
I suspect from a cynical point of view, delaying Brexit further may hurt the Tories more tha Labour, especially if the Brexit party splits the vote.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there. > > > > What's your alternative plan? > > > > Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped. > > > > Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too. > > > > Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps. > > Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it. > > Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously.
When Labour comes to analyse the results, I think they will conclude the opposite. Clearly the party is losing people from both ends, so the fence looks less attractive than it did. I suspect they are losing more Remain voters - including in Leave areas - and where they are losing leave voters these are irretrievable in the medium term as Labour can never out-Brexit the Tories, let alone prevent such people signing up with Farage when he arrives.
The only part of its vote Labour can hope to shore up is the remainer side currently switching to LibDem, Green or Indy. Which means backing the PV.
For sure, there are no votes in helping the Tories to deliver May’s deal.
> @TheJezziah said: > To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them. > > > > Why are they not? > > > > Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics > > Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit > > Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out > > Corbyn mismanagement of his party. > > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then?
The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn
> @IanB2 said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there. > > > > > > > > What's your alternative plan? > > > > > > > > Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped. > > > > > > > > Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too. > > > > > > > > Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps. > > > > Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it. > > > > Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously. > > When Labour comes to analyse the results, I think they will conclude the opposite. Clearly the party is losing people from both ends, so the fence looks less attractive than it did. I suspect they are losing more Remain voters - including in Leave areas - and where they are losing leave voters these are irretrievable in the medium term as Labour can never out-Brexit the Tories, let alone prevent such people signing up with Farage when he arrives. > > The only part of its vote Labour can hope to shore up is the remainer side currently switching to LibDem, Green or Indy. Which means backing the PV. > > For sure, there are no votes in helping the Tories to deliver May’s deal.
Wasn't there a plot earlier showing the reverse is true, that their share is down more in Leave seats? Fair point that they can't out-Brexit the Tories though!
Very poor result for Corbyn in Stoke where he began his campaign with labour losing 5 seats and conservatives gaining 8.
Very poor night for the conservatives but labour looking nowhere near government.
Congratulations to the Lib Dems, Greens and Independents.
It could and should have been all so different if the ERG had voted for the WDA on the first vote and not played fast and lose with the deal. JRM getting a kicking from the Lib Dems is ironic and I expect the rest of the day to continue in the same vein with many more conservative loses to the Lib Dems and labour in the doldrums
If the conservatives and labour mps have any sense they need to pass the WDA very quickly and leave by the 30th June
Big G continues to blame the diner for not eating a shit sandwich rather than the chef who prepared said delicacy....
This is actually worse for Labour than the Tories. Governments are supposed to lose heavily in mid-term council elections. Oppositions are supposed to make gains.
> @logical_song said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1124109727154286592 > > "taking a photo of a ballot paper’s unique identification number is against the rules. People face a fine of £5,000 or six months in prison if they reveal how someone else voted, even accidentally." > Hopefully no identification marks visible.
This is actually worse for Labour than the Tories. Governments are supposed to lose heavily in mid-term council elections. Oppositions are supposed to make gains.
> @RobD said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > Labour are all over the place on Brexit, listening to Barry Gardiner last night he was taking an almost ERG line. > > I wonder if we'll have movement on the WA?
I am sure this goes down well with the core Lab vote:
Does this mean that remain voters are flocking to the Lib Dems while disillusioned Tory and Labour leave voters simply stay home? Perhaps. But we shouldn’t forget the salience of local issues. Campaigners around the country have been desperate to shift the debate on to local issues and have had some success.
These elections are not a glorified opinion poll, they’re about electing councillors who will make decisions about the local services people rely on.”
> > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
>
>
>
> One day you’ll be discouraged by the root cause, your namesake.
>
> I'm not sure why I physically rolled my eyes in response to that, ingrained response I suppose. I disagree, although you might have guessed that.
One day you’ll get it. Probably too late. But you’ll get there.
Whilst I don't your confidence in your own views about what you know will happen you are just one of many people who all know different outcomes will happen.
Whilst one of you will be right the vast majority will be wrong, because there are people on every side who know they are right.
> @SouthamObserver said: > This is actually worse for Labour than the Tories. Governments are supposed to lose heavily in mid-term council elections. Oppositions are supposed to make gains.
Are you suggesting the LibDems are the Opposition? lol!
> @not_on_fire said: > Very poor result for Corbyn in Stoke where he began his campaign with labour losing 5 seats and conservatives gaining 8. > > > > Very poor night for the conservatives but labour looking nowhere near government. > > > > Congratulations to the Lib Dems, Greens and Independents. > > > > It could and should have been all so different if the ERG had voted for the WDA on the first vote and not played fast and lose with the deal. JRM getting a kicking from the Lib Dems is ironic and I expect the rest of the day to continue in the same vein with many more conservative loses to the Lib Dems and labour in the doldrums > > > > If the conservatives and labour mps have any sense they need to pass the WDA very quickly and leave by the 30th June > > I suspect from a cynical point of view, delaying Brexit further may hurt the Tories more tha Labour, especially if the Brexit party splits the vote.
It is possible but I think labour have the added problem that Corbyn's popularity is very much on the wane
> @El_Capitano said: > I seem to recall seeing that NPXMP was standing as a councillor, one assumes in Broxtowe.. Did he get a Safe? seat? > > > Not in Broxtowe, in the Home Counties.
Waverley DC. Count starts in a couple of hours time.
When Labour comes to analyse the results, I think they will conclude the opposite. Clearly the party is losing people from both ends, so the fence looks less attractive than it did. I suspect they are losing more Remain voters - including in Leave areas - and where they are losing leave voters these are irretrievable in the medium term as Labour can never out-Brexit the Tories, let alone prevent such people signing up with Farage when he arrives.
The only part of its vote Labour can hope to shore up is the remainer side currently switching to LibDem, Green or Indy. Which means backing the PV.
We don't need to win people over with our Brexit policy, it generally isn't what happened in 2017. We need to create the space to win people over on non Brexit areas. Going full remain creates a Brexit election with a pro Brexit Tory party vs a Remain Labour party.
Letting the Tories stew on it instead creates a messy... possibly then Boris led Tory party with little space to work in with Farage one side of him and Labour the other.
They could then longer term push hard on remain, maybe in an election but shorter term I'm not sure if it might be a good idea to hold off on pushing remain.
> > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
>
>
>
> One day you’ll be discouraged by the root cause, your namesake.
>
> I'm not sure why I physically rolled my eyes in response to that, ingrained response I suppose. I disagree, although you might have guessed that.
One day you’ll get it. Probably too late. But you’ll get there.
Whilst I don't your confidence in your own views about what you know will happen you are just one of many people who all know different outcomes will happen.
Whilst one of you will be right the vast majority will be wrong, because there are people on every side who know they are right.
Deep.
...is the first half of the phrase that best sums up Labour’s situation right now.
I wonder what the swing against Labour in Bristol West would be like if there was a by election there tommorow. Probably the least safe very safe seat they have right now
> @Pulpstar said: > I wonder what the swing against Labour in Bristol West would be like if there was a by election there tommorow. Probably the least safe very safe seat they have right now
Yes my personally being supportive of a second referendum, signing the petition to revoke and sharing it on here (not the first person to do so) all part of a long play...
I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise.
> @RobD said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > > > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there. > > > > > > > > > > > > What's your alternative plan? > > > > > > > > > > > > Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped. > > > > > > > > > > > > Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too. > > > > > > > > > > > > Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps. > > > > > > Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it. > > > > > > Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously. > > > > When Labour comes to analyse the results, I think they will conclude the opposite. Clearly the party is losing people from both ends, so the fence looks less attractive than it did. I suspect they are losing more Remain voters - including in Leave areas - and where they are losing leave voters these are irretrievable in the medium term as Labour can never out-Brexit the Tories, let alone prevent such people signing up with Farage when he arrives. > > > > The only part of its vote Labour can hope to shore up is the remainer side currently switching to LibDem, Green or Indy. Which means backing the PV. > > > > For sure, there are no votes in helping the Tories to deliver May’s deal. > > Wasn't there a plot earlier showing the reverse is true, that their share is down more in Leave seats? Fair point that they can't out-Brexit the Tories though!
In Sunderland Lab lost seats to LDs and Greens, so even on the purple coast are losing votes to Remain parties.
It looks to me that in many parts of the country people are against one party states on councils. Partly this may be because no national vote alongside this time.
> @logical_song said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1124109727154286592 > > "taking a photo of a ballot paper’s unique identification number is against the rules. People face a fine of £5,000 or six months in prison if they reveal how someone else voted, even accidentally." > Hopefully no identification marks visible.
I am wondering whether that is fake. The capital letters looks to be in the same handwriting on several of the papers - the double down scored Bs, strangely shaped Fs and Es with crossbars recur.
Very poor result for Corbyn in Stoke where he began his campaign with labour losing 5 seats and conservatives gaining 8.
Very poor night for the conservatives but labour looking nowhere near government.
Congratulations to the Lib Dems, Greens and Independents.
It could and should have been all so different if the ERG had voted for the WDA on the first vote and not played fast and lose with the deal. JRM getting a kicking from the Lib Dems is ironic and I expect the rest of the day to continue in the same vein with many more conservative loses to the Lib Dems and labour in the doldrums
If the conservatives and labour mps have any sense they need to pass the WDA very quickly and leave by the 30th June
Big G continues to blame the diner for not eating a shit sandwich rather than the chef who prepared said delicacy....
The Conservative restaurant could have a three Michelin Star chef, but such a star would find it impossible to serve good food when her cooks are grabbing the sh*t out of the toilets and putting it onto mouldy bread, and the waiters (led by JRM) are wiping their dribbling, snotty little noses on the bread ...
I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise.
Sorry, genuine question - do you mean you would like Labour to win AND to stay in the EU, but Labour winning matters more?
> @Foxy said: > > @RobD said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > > > > > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What's your alternative plan? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps. > > > > > > > > Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it. > > > > > > > > Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously. > > > > > > When Labour comes to analyse the results, I think they will conclude the opposite. Clearly the party is losing people from both ends, so the fence looks less attractive than it did. I suspect they are losing more Remain voters - including in Leave areas - and where they are losing leave voters these are irretrievable in the medium term as Labour can never out-Brexit the Tories, let alone prevent such people signing up with Farage when he arrives. > > > > > > The only part of its vote Labour can hope to shore up is the remainer side currently switching to LibDem, Green or Indy. Which means backing the PV. > > > > > > For sure, there are no votes in helping the Tories to deliver May’s deal. > > > > Wasn't there a plot earlier showing the reverse is true, that their share is down more in Leave seats? Fair point that they can't out-Brexit the Tories though! > > In Sunderland Lab lost seats to LDs and Greens, so even on the purple coast are losing votes to Remain parties. > > It looks to me that in many parts of the country people are against one party states on councils. Partly this may be because no national vote alongside this time.
And let’s not make the HY mistake of assuming there aren’t any Remain voters in leave seats?
> @IanB2 said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > I seem to recall seeing that NPXMP was standing as a councillor, one assumes in Broxtowe.. Did he get a Safe? seat? > > > > > > Not in Broxtowe, in the Home Counties. > > > Waverley DC. Count starts in a couple of hours time.
I suspect a couple of hours time is when the real pain starts for the Tories.
The Shire Tories are going to be visited by the hordes of the Orange Orcs. Going to be messy. Lots of councils to lose lots of councillors.
Labour not a presence, so nothing much more for them to lose.
Tories thinking last night wasn't too bad are missing that they are being crushed by the pincers of the Should-be-Dead: both Farage and the LibDems have been re-awoken by May. That is the measure of her shiteness.
> "taking a photo of a ballot paper’s unique identification number is against the rules. People face a fine of £5,000 or six months in prison if they reveal how someone else voted, even accidentally."
> Hopefully no identification marks visible.
I am wondering whether that is fake. The capital letters looks to be in the same handwriting on several of the papers - the double down scored Bs, strangely shaped Fs and Es with crossbars recur.
> @TheJezziah said: > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then? > > > https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1124194312793800704 > > > > Oh... > > Yes my personally being supportive of a second referendum, signing the petition to revoke and sharing it on here (not the first person to do so) all part of a long play... > > I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise.
and if you cannot have Brexit or Labour winning, you will still support a loser like Corbyn..
> > I seem to recall seeing that NPXMP was standing as a councillor, one assumes in Broxtowe.. Did he get a Safe? seat?
> >
> >
> > Not in Broxtowe, in the Home Counties.
>
>
> Waverley DC. Count starts in a couple of hours time.
I suspect a couple of hours time is when the real pain starts for the Tories.
The Shire Tories are going to be visited by the hordes of the Orange Orcs. Going to be messy. Lots of councils to lose lots of councillors.
Labour not a presence, so nothing much more for them to lose.
Tories thinking last night wasn't too bad are missing that they are being crushed by the pincers of the Should-be-Dead: both Farage and the LibDems have been re-awoken by May. That is the measure of her shiteness.
With independents doing so well, I wouldn't like to be a Tory candidate in somewhere like Herefordshire where no less than 17 of the wards are two candidate contests between the Conservatives and an independent of one type or another.
> @MarqueeMark said: > Ashfield - Labour go from 22 to 2. > > Now Ashfield Independents 30 > Conservatives 3 > Labour 2 > > A model for others to copy across the country.....
The AIs, led by a former LD, also kill off the final 5 LD councillors on the Council.
I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise.
Sorry, genuine question - do you mean you would like Labour to win AND to stay in the EU, but Labour winning matters more?
Because it isn't terribly clear.
Did a partial rewrite at one point which made it unclear.
I would like Lab to win and to stay in the EU. Lab winning matters more.
So are all those on here who were claiming that Labour didn't have to worry about their WWC base because it didn't really exist going to change their tune?
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them. > > > > > > > > > > > > Why are they not? > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics > > > > > > Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit > > > > > > Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out > > > > > > Corbyn mismanagement of his party. > > > > > > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then? > > > > The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn > > I’d have thought both Labour and the Conservatives have an interest in burying Brexit as the overtowering issue and move onto national politics again. > > Whether they will or not? I still have my doubts.
Going to be plenty of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats cacking themselves. Suspect they will be happy enough to ditch the idea of getting a CU if they can secure environmental and workers' rights safeguards tagged onto May's Shit Deal.
Can we please have a massacre in Cannock Chase as well? Getting rid of the awesomely selfish Labour council who pay for themselves to have chauffeur driven Mercedes while cutting out services would be a tremendous result.
> @ydoethur said: > Can we please have a massacre in Cannock Chase as well? Getting rid of the awesomely selfish Labour council who pay for themselves to have chauffeur driven Mercedes while cutting out services would be a tremendous result.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @El_Capitano said: > > > I seem to recall seeing that NPXMP was standing as a councillor, one assumes in Broxtowe.. Did he get a Safe? seat? > > > > > > > > > Not in Broxtowe, in the Home Counties. > > > > > > Waverley DC. Count starts in a couple of hours time. > > I suspect a couple of hours time is when the real pain starts for the Tories. > > The Shire Tories are going to be visited by the hordes of the Orange Orcs. Going to be messy. Lots of councils to lose lots of councillors. > > Labour not a presence, so nothing much more for them to lose. > > Tories thinking last night wasn't too bad are missing that they are being crushed by the pincers of the Should-be-Dead: both Farage and the LibDems have been re-awoken by May. That is the measure of her shiteness. > >
Yes and No. The Conservatives will suffer in Remain-voting Shire districts, but get off far more lightly in Leave-voting districts.
I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise.
Sorry, genuine question - do you mean you would like Labour to win AND to stay in the EU, but Labour winning matters more?
Because it isn't terribly clear.
Did a partial rewrite at one point which made it unclear.
I would like Lab to win and to stay in the EU. Lab winning matters more.
Thanks.
Tends to confirm NPXMP's oft-repeated claim that when the last comes to the last Brexit is a secondary issue for Lab voters.
> Yes my personally being supportive of a second referendum, signing the petition to revoke and sharing it on here (not the first person to do so) all part of a long play...
>
> I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise.
and if you cannot have Brexit or Labour winning, you will still support a loser like Corbyn..
My political support isn't based on chance of winning... I would have gone into the 2017 election a Tory supporter otherwise.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Why are they not? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics > > > > > > > > > > Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit > > > > > > > > > > Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out > > > > > > > > > > Corbyn mismanagement of his party. > > > > > > > > > > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then? > > > > > > > > The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn > > > > I’d have thought both Labour and the Conservatives have an interest in burying Brexit as the overtowering issue and move onto national politics again. > > > > Whether they will or not? I still have my doubts. > > Going to be plenty of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats cacking themselves. Suspect they will be happy enough to ditch the idea of getting a CU if they can secure environmental and workers' rights safeguards tagged onto May's Shit Deal.
Lab were never going to gain. Last time was a GE and LDs still being punished for being in bed with baby eaters. Was obvious that would unwind this time.
> @ydoethur said: > Can we please have a massacre in Cannock Chase as well? Getting rid of the awesomely selfish Labour council who pay for themselves to have chauffeur driven Mercedes while cutting out services would be a tremendous result.
Labour seem to be going backwards in the West Midlands, so that is quite possible.
> @Cicero said: > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come?
> Can we please have a massacre in Cannock Chase as well? Getting rid of the awesomely selfish Labour council who pay for themselves to have chauffeur driven Mercedes while cutting out services would be a tremendous result.
> @AndyJS said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > Labour are losing councillors? > > > > That's an absolutely dreadful performance. How often does an Opposition lose councillors? > > They were almost wiped out on Ashfield council, they lost seats in Bolsover, Stoke-on-Trent, Walsall, East Yorkshire, Bolton, Hartlepool, Sunderland.
> @Cicero said: > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come?
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > > > To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Why are they not? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Corbyn mismanagement of his party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then? > > > > > > > > > > > > The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn > > > > > > I’d have thought both Labour and the Conservatives have an interest in burying Brexit as the overtowering issue and move onto national politics again. > > > > > > Whether they will or not? I still have my doubts. > > > > Going to be plenty of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats cacking themselves. Suspect they will be happy enough to ditch the idea of getting a CU if they can secure environmental and workers' rights safeguards tagged onto May's Shit Deal. > > Lab were never going to gain. Last time was a GE and LDs still being punished for being in bed with baby eaters. Was obvious that would unwind this time.
Surely if Labour want to win a GE they need to be improving on the GE of 2015 results?
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then? > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1124194312793800704 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Oh... > > > > > > Yes my personally being supportive of a second referendum, signing the petition to revoke and sharing it on here (not the first person to do so) all part of a long play... > > > > > > I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise. > > > > and if you cannot have Brexit or Labour winning, you will still support a loser like Corbyn.. > > My political support isn't based on chance of winning... I would have gone into the 2017 election a Tory supporter otherwise.
Well either you support a loser like Corbyn, knowing he cannot win, or you choose someone else in Labour to lead who can. Its not rocket science.
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > > > To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Why are they not? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Corbyn mismanagement of his party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then? > > > > > > > > > > > > The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn > > > > > > I’d have thought both Labour and the Conservatives have an interest in burying Brexit as the overtowering issue and move onto national politics again. > > > > > > Whether they will or not? I still have my doubts. > > > > Going to be plenty of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats cacking themselves. Suspect they will be happy enough to ditch the idea of getting a CU if they can secure environmental and workers' rights safeguards tagged onto May's Shit Deal. > > Lab were never going to gain. Last time was a GE and LDs still being punished for being in bed with baby eaters. Was obvious that would unwind this time.
But labour has to do well to be seen as a government in waiting and right now they lack credibility on brexit and Corbyn has been found out
Comments
> That would have been embarrassing.....
>
> https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1124176248291385344
Still lost 15 of 38 seats being defended
Correction: boundary changes - went from 38 to 23 on a smaller counci. LibDems went from 1 to 9, residents from 2 to 5, Indy from 0 to 4
> Turns out having an anti-Semitic, anti-EU, anti-NATO leader is not a sure path to power for Labour. Whoever would have thought it?
>
> I voted LibDem yesterday and it felt very good.
Are you going to start wearing sandals? You know you want to.
Not in Broxtowe, in the Home Counties.
> https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1124109727154286592
"taking a photo of a ballot paper’s unique identification number is against the rules. People face a fine of £5,000 or six months in prison if they reveal how someone else voted, even accidentally."
Hopefully no identification marks visible.
Scale of the emerging LD win on Vale of the White Horse is massive. https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17615225.local-elections-2019-oxfordshire-results-as-they-come-in/
> So far, obviously good for the Lib Dems, who are benefitting from being the only viable party other than Labour and the Conservatives in most places. Yes of course 2015 was a particularly bad year for them but they flatlined in 2017. They’re on the up. That was not inevitable.
>
>
> And has precisely nothing to do with the efforts of Vince Cable.
If everyone else is falling back, all you have to do is stand still.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
>
>
>
> One day you’ll be discouraged by the root cause, your namesake.
>
> I'm not sure why I physically rolled my eyes in response to that, ingrained response I suppose. I disagree, although you might have guessed that.
One day you’ll get it. Probably too late. But you’ll get there.
Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > So far, obviously good for the Lib Dems, who are benefitting from being the only viable party other than Labour and the Conservatives in most places. Yes of course 2015 was a particularly bad year for them but they flatlined in 2017. They’re on the up. That was not inevitable.
>
> Indeed. If I was a Tory who won my seat from the Lib Dems in 2015 I would be a lot more twitchy this morning than I had been when the Lib Dems seemed to be struggling to reach double figures.
>
> Weirdly UKIP are also doing well where they are standing. There is clearly an anti-incumbency bias.
Quite a lot of councillors listed as independents by the BBC are also ex-UKIP (eg in Thurrock, Barnsley, Hartlepool, Tendring).
> Feeling OK about my guesses of yesterday. So far I would say the Lib Dems are doing better than I guessed, in fact they may break 20% of the vote, which is a pretty spectacular change on current polls, especially when they are barely contesting half the seats up. The Tories are faring slightly worse, and may lose more than 900 overall. Labour are having an extremely ho-hum night and my prediction of net losses is not looking too bad. Also Others seem set to beat my prediction by a good margin, I forgot to add that I expected Green gains and UKIP losses in my tally of Others.
>
> I came through Cirencester on Tuesday and there was a bigger than usual display of Lib Dem posters, so I did have an inkling about Cotswold.
>
> I think that the Lib Dems will generally do better on the number of councils than the number of councillor gains would imply, because they are concentrating their vote in core areas: thus North Norfolk and Bath/NE Somerset. The Lib Dems are clearly back in business, and with a new leader in the offing and further progress in the Euros likely, I think we could see consistent high-teen poll ratings before the end of the summer, to match this evenings vote. I would be feeling pretty nervous tonight if I was a Tory MP for a seat that had been Lib Dem before 2015.
The other thing about the LibDems is that they lost a lot of activists during the coalition and in some areas their organisation is way behind where it used to be. To win seats as a third party needs organisation and effort - the seat gains show the results where they are still able to put this in. But there will be other areas where the LD vote will have risen without any seats to show for it: when the vote shares come to be worked out, these could be more flattering for the LDs than even the seat gains.
p.s. kudos for your Labour prediction; you were on the money and ahead of the ‘official’ analysts.
Exactly.
> Labour are all over the place on Brexit, listening to Barry Gardiner last night he was taking an almost ERG line.
I wonder if we'll have movement on the WA?
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
>
>
>
> What's your alternative plan?
>
>
>
> Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped.
>
>
>
> Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too.
>
>
>
> Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps.
>
> Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it.
>
> Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously.
Labour haven't been 'pushing towards remain'. They've been utterly leaderless and rudderless on Brexit, and MPs are just saying whatever sh*t they like.
The only thing Labour have been pushing towards is anti-Semitism and intolerance under your great hero.
You must be so proud.
Got a weird sense of deja vu, seeing the Lib Dems winning here and there.
Surprised Labour, currently, have gone backwards.
Very poor night for the conservatives but labour looking nowhere near government.
Congratulations to the Lib Dems, Greens and Independents.
It could and should have been all so different if the ERG had voted for the WDA on the first vote and not played fast and lose with the deal. JRM getting a kicking from the Lib Dems is ironic and I expect the rest of the day to continue in the same vein with many more conservative loses to the Lib Dems and labour in the doldrums
If the conservatives and labour mps have any sense they need to pass the WDA very quickly and leave by the 30th June
Whilst one of you will be right the vast majority will be wrong, because there are people on every side who know they are right.
Now Ashfield Independents 30
Conservatives 3
Labour 2
A model for others to copy across the country.....
Why are they not?
Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics
Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit
Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out
Corbyn mismanagement of his party.
Blurton West & Newstead:
Con 322
City Inds 315
Lab 303
Greens 72
http://www.moderngov.stoke.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=208&RPID=41791465
Broadway & Longton East:
Con 522
Lab 512
http://www.moderngov.stoke.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=211&RPID=41791465
> These results imply neither a pro- or anti-Brexit party would stand much chance of winning a majority in a GE.
Very fair comment
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
>
>
>
> What's your alternative plan?
>
>
>
> Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped.
>
>
>
> Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too.
>
>
>
> Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps.
>
> Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it.
>
> Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously.
When Labour comes to analyse the results, I think they will conclude the opposite. Clearly the party is losing people from both ends, so the fence looks less attractive than it did. I suspect they are losing more Remain voters - including in Leave areas - and where they are losing leave voters these are irretrievable in the medium term as Labour can never out-Brexit the Tories, let alone prevent such people signing up with Farage when he arrives.
The only part of its vote Labour can hope to shore up is the remainer side currently switching to LibDem, Green or Indy. Which means backing the PV.
For sure, there are no votes in helping the Tories to deliver May’s deal.
> To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them.
>
>
>
> Why are they not?
>
>
>
> Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics
>
> Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit
>
> Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out
>
> Corbyn mismanagement of his party.
>
> So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then?
The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn
Oh...
> I think a PBer has just won a seat for the Lib Dems but will leave it to them to confirm or otherwise.
>
@SeanT is normally so shy ....
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > > @TheJezziah said:
> >
> > > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
> >
> >
> >
> > What's your alternative plan?
> >
> >
> >
> > Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped.
> >
> >
> >
> > Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too.
> >
> >
> >
> > Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps.
> >
> > Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it.
> >
> > Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously.
>
> When Labour comes to analyse the results, I think they will conclude the opposite. Clearly the party is losing people from both ends, so the fence looks less attractive than it did. I suspect they are losing more Remain voters - including in Leave areas - and where they are losing leave voters these are irretrievable in the medium term as Labour can never out-Brexit the Tories, let alone prevent such people signing up with Farage when he arrives.
>
> The only part of its vote Labour can hope to shore up is the remainer side currently switching to LibDem, Green or Indy. Which means backing the PV.
>
> For sure, there are no votes in helping the Tories to deliver May’s deal.
Wasn't there a plot earlier showing the reverse is true, that their share is down more in Leave seats? Fair point that they can't out-Brexit the Tories though!
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1124109727154286592
>
> "taking a photo of a ballot paper’s unique identification number is against the rules. People face a fine of £5,000 or six months in prison if they reveal how someone else voted, even accidentally."
> Hopefully no identification marks visible.
The numbers are always on the back.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Labour are all over the place on Brexit, listening to Barry Gardiner last night he was taking an almost ERG line.
>
> I wonder if we'll have movement on the WA?
I am sure this goes down well with the core Lab vote:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1124184429071613952?s=19
These elections are not a glorified opinion poll, they’re about electing councillors who will make decisions about the local services people rely on.”
https://www.lgiu.org.uk/news/lgiu-statement-state-of-the-locals-at-6am/
> This is actually worse for Labour than the Tories. Governments are supposed to lose heavily in mid-term council elections. Oppositions are supposed to make gains.
Are you suggesting the LibDems are the Opposition? lol!
> Very poor result for Corbyn in Stoke where he began his campaign with labour losing 5 seats and conservatives gaining 8.
>
>
>
> Very poor night for the conservatives but labour looking nowhere near government.
>
>
>
> Congratulations to the Lib Dems, Greens and Independents.
>
>
>
> It could and should have been all so different if the ERG had voted for the WDA on the first vote and not played fast and lose with the deal. JRM getting a kicking from the Lib Dems is ironic and I expect the rest of the day to continue in the same vein with many more conservative loses to the Lib Dems and labour in the doldrums
>
>
>
> If the conservatives and labour mps have any sense they need to pass the WDA very quickly and leave by the 30th June
>
> I suspect from a cynical point of view, delaying Brexit further may hurt the Tories more tha Labour, especially if the Brexit party splits the vote.
It is possible but I think labour have the added problem that Corbyn's popularity is very much on the wane
> I seem to recall seeing that NPXMP was standing as a councillor, one assumes in Broxtowe.. Did he get a Safe? seat?
>
>
> Not in Broxtowe, in the Home Counties.
Waverley DC. Count starts in a couple of hours time.
Letting the Tories stew on it instead creates a messy... possibly then Boris led Tory party with little space to work in with Farage one side of him and Labour the other.
They could then longer term push hard on remain, maybe in an election but shorter term I'm not sure if it might be a good idea to hold off on pushing remain.
Whether they will or not? I still have my doubts.
Wow, I was not expecting to see Labour down in seats at this stage. Poor night for Tories as expected but that will console them.
> I wonder what the swing against Labour in Bristol West would be like if there was a by election there tommorow. Probably the least safe very safe seat they have right now
The Greens would win it at a by-election.
I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @TheJezziah said:
> > > > @TheJezziah said:
> > >
> > > > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > What's your alternative plan?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps.
> > >
> > > Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it.
> > >
> > > Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously.
> >
> > When Labour comes to analyse the results, I think they will conclude the opposite. Clearly the party is losing people from both ends, so the fence looks less attractive than it did. I suspect they are losing more Remain voters - including in Leave areas - and where they are losing leave voters these are irretrievable in the medium term as Labour can never out-Brexit the Tories, let alone prevent such people signing up with Farage when he arrives.
> >
> > The only part of its vote Labour can hope to shore up is the remainer side currently switching to LibDem, Green or Indy. Which means backing the PV.
> >
> > For sure, there are no votes in helping the Tories to deliver May’s deal.
>
> Wasn't there a plot earlier showing the reverse is true, that their share is down more in Leave seats? Fair point that they can't out-Brexit the Tories though!
In Sunderland Lab lost seats to LDs and Greens, so even on the purple coast are losing votes to Remain parties.
It looks to me that in many parts of the country people are against one party states on councils. Partly this may be because no national vote alongside this time.
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1124186616044621824
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1124109727154286592
>
> "taking a photo of a ballot paper’s unique identification number is against the rules. People face a fine of £5,000 or six months in prison if they reveal how someone else voted, even accidentally."
> Hopefully no identification marks visible.
I am wondering whether that is fake. The capital letters looks to be in the same handwriting on several of the papers - the double down scored Bs, strangely shaped Fs and Es with crossbars recur.
Because it isn't terribly clear.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @TheJezziah said:
> > > > > @TheJezziah said:
> > > >
> > > > > Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > What's your alternative plan?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps.
> > > >
> > > > Leave the government twist in the wind, it isn't Labours job to figure it out. If pushing towards remain is proving unpopular then we should pull back from it.
> > > >
> > > > Although to clarify I'm not saying I'm anti 2nd ref, just less in favour of a referendum than I was previously.
> > >
> > > When Labour comes to analyse the results, I think they will conclude the opposite. Clearly the party is losing people from both ends, so the fence looks less attractive than it did. I suspect they are losing more Remain voters - including in Leave areas - and where they are losing leave voters these are irretrievable in the medium term as Labour can never out-Brexit the Tories, let alone prevent such people signing up with Farage when he arrives.
> > >
> > > The only part of its vote Labour can hope to shore up is the remainer side currently switching to LibDem, Green or Indy. Which means backing the PV.
> > >
> > > For sure, there are no votes in helping the Tories to deliver May’s deal.
> >
> > Wasn't there a plot earlier showing the reverse is true, that their share is down more in Leave seats? Fair point that they can't out-Brexit the Tories though!
>
> In Sunderland Lab lost seats to LDs and Greens, so even on the purple coast are losing votes to Remain parties.
>
> It looks to me that in many parts of the country people are against one party states on councils. Partly this may be because no national vote alongside this time.
And let’s not make the HY mistake of assuming there aren’t any Remain voters in leave seats?
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > I seem to recall seeing that NPXMP was standing as a councillor, one assumes in Broxtowe.. Did he get a Safe? seat?
> >
> >
> > Not in Broxtowe, in the Home Counties.
>
>
> Waverley DC. Count starts in a couple of hours time.
I suspect a couple of hours time is when the real pain starts for the Tories.
The Shire Tories are going to be visited by the hordes of the Orange Orcs. Going to be messy. Lots of councils to lose lots of councillors.
Labour not a presence, so nothing much more for them to lose.
Tories thinking last night wasn't too bad are missing that they are being crushed by the pincers of the Should-be-Dead: both Farage and the LibDems have been re-awoken by May. That is the measure of her shiteness.
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/people-spoiled-ballot-papers-words-16218548
> So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then?
>
>
> https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1124194312793800704
>
>
>
> Oh...
>
> Yes my personally being supportive of a second referendum, signing the petition to revoke and sharing it on here (not the first person to do so) all part of a long play...
>
> I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise.
and if you cannot have Brexit or Labour winning, you will still support a loser like Corbyn..
Meanwhile:
http://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1124196850695852034
> Ashfield - Labour go from 22 to 2.
>
> Now Ashfield Independents 30
> Conservatives 3
> Labour 2
>
> A model for others to copy across the country.....
The AIs, led by a former LD, also kill off the final 5 LD councillors on the Council.
So far it's at 10 Lib Dems, 4 Conservative, 3 Residents, 3 Independents, 1 Grn
In 2015 it went 33 Con, 1 LD, 1 Lab, 1 Resident.
The Conservatives have *never* not been the largest party, and have had a majority from 1976 to 2019 bar 8 years just short of one in 1995-2003.
That's an absolutely dreadful performance. How often does an Opposition lose councillors?
I would like Lab to win and to stay in the EU. Lab winning matters more.
> Another Conservative massacre: the Vale of the White Horse has gone Lib Dem by a big margin, Wessex seems to be swinging :-)
Anywhere that voted Remain, like Vale of White Horse, is going to swing to the LDs in a big way.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Why are they not?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics
>
> >
>
> > Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit
>
> >
>
> > Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out
>
> >
>
> > Corbyn mismanagement of his party.
>
> >
>
> > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then?
>
>
>
> The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn
>
> I’d have thought both Labour and the Conservatives have an interest in burying Brexit as the overtowering issue and move onto national politics again.
>
> Whether they will or not? I still have my doubts.
Going to be plenty of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats cacking themselves. Suspect they will be happy enough to ditch the idea of getting a CU if they can secure environmental and workers' rights safeguards tagged onto May's Shit Deal.
> Labour are losing councillors?
>
> That's an absolutely dreadful performance. How often does an Opposition lose councillors?
They were almost wiped out on Ashfield council, they lost seats in Bolsover, Stoke-on-Trent, Walsall, East Yorkshire, Bolton, Hartlepool, Sunderland.
> Can we please have a massacre in Cannock Chase as well? Getting rid of the awesomely selfish Labour council who pay for themselves to have chauffeur driven Mercedes while cutting out services would be a tremendous result.
The result is due at 2pm.
https://election.pressassociation.com/local-elections-declaration-time/
> https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1124170279545077761
A notable omission from that list...
> A pity the LDs were only standing in about 57% of seats. I wasn't able to vote for them in my area for instance.
I wouldn't have voted for them but I was surprised that of 7 candidates in my ward there was no LibDem.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @El_Capitano said:
> > > I seem to recall seeing that NPXMP was standing as a councillor, one assumes in Broxtowe.. Did he get a Safe? seat?
> > >
> > >
> > > Not in Broxtowe, in the Home Counties.
> >
> >
> > Waverley DC. Count starts in a couple of hours time.
>
> I suspect a couple of hours time is when the real pain starts for the Tories.
>
> The Shire Tories are going to be visited by the hordes of the Orange Orcs. Going to be messy. Lots of councils to lose lots of councillors.
>
> Labour not a presence, so nothing much more for them to lose.
>
> Tories thinking last night wasn't too bad are missing that they are being crushed by the pincers of the Should-be-Dead: both Farage and the LibDems have been re-awoken by May. That is the measure of her shiteness.
>
>
Yes and No. The Conservatives will suffer in Remain-voting Shire districts, but get off far more lightly in Leave-voting districts.
Tends to confirm NPXMP's oft-repeated claim that when the last comes to the last Brexit is a secondary issue for Lab voters.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @TheJezziah said:
> >
> > > To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Why are they not?
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Corbyn mismanagement of his party.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then?
> >
> >
> >
> > The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn
> >
> > I’d have thought both Labour and the Conservatives have an interest in burying Brexit as the overtowering issue and move onto national politics again.
> >
> > Whether they will or not? I still have my doubts.
>
> Going to be plenty of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats cacking themselves. Suspect they will be happy enough to ditch the idea of getting a CU if they can secure environmental and workers' rights safeguards tagged onto May's Shit Deal.
Lab were never going to gain. Last time was a GE and LDs still being punished for being in bed with baby eaters. Was obvious that would unwind this time.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1124198890134175744
> Can we please have a massacre in Cannock Chase as well? Getting rid of the awesomely selfish Labour council who pay for themselves to have chauffeur driven Mercedes while cutting out services would be a tremendous result.
Labour seem to be going backwards in the West Midlands, so that is quite possible.
> So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come?
Vale of the White Hearse?
Do you suppose they'll notice if I switch from Emmanuel Kant to 'Yeah, take that mother****ers' in mid sentence if it's a good result?
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > Labour are losing councillors?
> >
> > That's an absolutely dreadful performance. How often does an Opposition lose councillors?
>
> They were almost wiped out on Ashfield council, they lost seats in Bolsover, Stoke-on-Trent, Walsall, East Yorkshire, Bolton, Hartlepool, Sunderland.
The north losing patience with Labour over Brexit
> So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come?
Plenty.
But if I told you, they wouldn't be a surprise...
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > @TheJezziah said:
> > >
> > > > To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Why are they not?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Corbyn mismanagement of his party.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn
> > >
> > > I’d have thought both Labour and the Conservatives have an interest in burying Brexit as the overtowering issue and move onto national politics again.
> > >
> > > Whether they will or not? I still have my doubts.
> >
> > Going to be plenty of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats cacking themselves. Suspect they will be happy enough to ditch the idea of getting a CU if they can secure environmental and workers' rights safeguards tagged onto May's Shit Deal.
>
> Lab were never going to gain. Last time was a GE and LDs still being punished for being in bed with baby eaters. Was obvious that would unwind this time.
Surely if Labour want to win a GE they need to be improving on the GE of 2015 results?
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1124194312793800704
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Oh...
>
> >
>
> > Yes my personally being supportive of a second referendum, signing the petition to revoke and sharing it on here (not the first person to do so) all part of a long play...
>
> >
>
> > I have made clear from the start Labour winning is a bigger priority to me than not having Brexit, just my personal hope was to get both. If I can't have both then I will prioritise.
>
>
>
> and if you cannot have Brexit or Labour winning, you will still support a loser like Corbyn..
>
> My political support isn't based on chance of winning... I would have gone into the 2017 election a Tory supporter otherwise.
Well either you support a loser like Corbyn, knowing he cannot win, or you choose someone else in Labour to lead who can. Its not rocket science.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > @TheJezziah said:
> > >
> > > > To form a government, Labour should be gaining seats. Lots of them.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Why are they not?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Brexit chaos denying oxygen to std politics
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Labour unable to stick to a coherent position on Brexit
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Corbyn talking to and super serving his core supporters, rather than reaching out
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Corbyn mismanagement of his party.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > So we agree about the push towards remain being a negative then?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The negatives for labour are trying to appease both remain and leave and one Jeremy Corbyn
> > >
> > > I’d have thought both Labour and the Conservatives have an interest in burying Brexit as the overtowering issue and move onto national politics again.
> > >
> > > Whether they will or not? I still have my doubts.
> >
> > Going to be plenty of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats cacking themselves. Suspect they will be happy enough to ditch the idea of getting a CU if they can secure environmental and workers' rights safeguards tagged onto May's Shit Deal.
>
> Lab were never going to gain. Last time was a GE and LDs still being punished for being in bed with baby eaters. Was obvious that would unwind this time.
But labour has to do well to be seen as a government in waiting and right now they lack credibility on brexit and Corbyn has been found out