> @Jonathan said: > That is a weak response, you’re as bad as those lefties still banging on about Thatcher. The onus is on those that want Brexit to come up with an actionable plan.
---
I happy for the UK to end up like Norway or Switzerland, prosperous places that are not in the EU. They look sensible compromises to me.
No more whining, wingeing lectures from Jonathan, please
Remember in life's lost, it is Brexit, ZERO; Iraq War; > 30,000
Whatever the Brexiteers have done, it is nothing like the debacle of your Iraq War. Remember that when you preach to us about responsibility and politicians.
> It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
>
> In order to have a preferential relationship with the continent, we need to have a preferential relationship with the EU.
>
> I don't want a preferential relationship with them. I would expect reciprocal low, or no tariffs because it would benefit both parties, but if it didn't happen it would be no cause for anguish. The clothes I'm wearing are mostly from India. The phone I'm on is Japanese (goodness knows where its actually made but its outside the EU). Find a good product, market it well, offer it at the right price. That's how to prosper. Needing to be part of a vast bureaucracy in order to get a few pennies off a pound of butter is utterly absurd.
A key questions is would a WTO Brexit include an approx £20bn divorce payment?
If this is not allowed expectations of reciprocal low tariffs are unicorns.
If this is allowed then just accept the WA and move onto negotiating the future relationship part. Our exact relationship for a couple of years transition is irrelevant in the big scheme of things.
> @DavidL said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously: > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same. > > > > > > > > Farage, May 2019: > > > > "You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result." > > > > > > > > Farage, Mahy 2016: > > > > "There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said." > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681 > > > > > > > > It seems Farage's views on what losers should depends on whether he is on the losing or winning side ... > > > > Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular. > > > > He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters. > > You and others are making the mistake of playing the man, not the ball. Of course Farage is a flawed instrument. He's a liar, a dissembler, a hypocrite, a politican for god's sake. But this message resonates. Despite the messenger. Our political class are playing with fire.
Don't be a silly sausage. Of course the message resonates: but the fact it does so does not mean that he should not be called out on such things.
On another point, in the case of the Brexit Party, the man (Farage) *is* the ball, as there's f'all substance to the party aside from him. You cannot attack them on policies, as they don't have a manifesto, and Farage will say whatever shit comes into his head to get him in the media.
My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile?
I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me.
> @kle4 said: > Some encouragement for Labor as they gain Gillmore in NSW from the Coalition > > Some encouragement? You havent been putting much away by the exit polls then?
Exit polls in Australia are not always accurate eg 1998 had Labor ahead with 53% and Howard narrowly won, early signs look similar tonight but Labor could yet scrape home as more results come in from urban areas.
Looks like One Nation doing better than polls predicted too and their preferences going to the Coalition
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are? > > > > > > I think a reasonable explanation of 'WTO' would be that we leave every aspect of EU membership, enjoying none of the economic benefits of membership, suffering none of the economic liabilities of membership, and continuing to trade with the EU as a third party, like India, China, Botswana etc. It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent. > > > > _____________________ > > > > The UK government went into considerable detail of No Deal Brexit means. It didn't make pretty reading and Dominic Raab was very uncomfortable explaining them during his brief unsuccessful stint as Brexit Sec. The notices split into two basic statements: 1. Businesses etc make your own plans because you will be screwed. 2. A deal on this particular thing has to happen because otherwise we are all screwed. > > > > You don't think in the case of 2. that the EU won't go, sure, a deal, now about the withdrawal agreement ... ? > > > > In what way is this better than accepting the WA upfront? > > You're conflating 'no deal', a situation where there are no interim arrangements and no agreed process for leaving, with WTO, which is leaving in an agreed way, but totally. I don't think no deal is necessarily better than the WA and I've never said so. I think the following: > WTO - My preferred Brexit. I think should be right out, and be very circumspect and wise about joining anything. In the midst of leaving is no time to be signing up to goodness knows what. > No Deal - don't want it but wouldn't be as terrible as fantasised about, and should have remained very much on the table as an option in the negotiations > May's deal - not ideal but it was Brexit and would have liked it passed rather than the current mess.
____________
How can you leave in an agreed way with deals and not have an agreed deal? This isn't a rhetorical question. Sooner rather than later we will have to face reality and no-one works that way.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are? > > > > > > I think a reasonable explanation of 'WTO' would be that we leave every aspect of EU membership, enjoying none of the economic benefits of membership, suffering none of the economic liabilities of membership, and continuing to trade with the EU as a third party, like India, China, Botswana etc. It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent. > > > > _____________________ > > > > The UK government went into considerable detail of No Deal Brexit means. It didn't make pretty reading and Dominic Raab was very uncomfortable explaining them during his brief unsuccessful stint as Brexit Sec. The notices split into two basic statements: 1. Businesses etc make your own plans because you will be screwed. 2. A deal on this particular thing has to happen because otherwise we are all screwed. > > > > You don't think in the case of 2. that the EU won't go, sure, a deal, now about the withdrawal agreement ... ? > > > > In what way is this better than accepting the WA upfront? > > You're conflating 'no deal', a situation where there are no interim arrangements and no agreed process for leaving, with WTO, which is leaving in an agreed way, but totally. I don't think no deal is necessarily better than the WA and I've never said so. I think the following: > WTO - My preferred Brexit. I think should be right out, and be very circumspect and wise about joining anything. In the midst of leaving is no time to be signing up to goodness knows what. > No Deal - don't want it but wouldn't be as terrible as fantasised about, and should have remained very much on the table as an option in the negotiations > May's deal - not ideal but it was Brexit and would have liked it passed rather than the current mess.
Another issue with WTO is Trump. If Trump wins another election there is a fair chance the US withdraws from WTO which could lead to its collapse. If he doesnt withdraw he will paralyse it so it cannot make any decisions. On the plus side it probably means it would take decades, if ever, for us to be found guilty of breaking rules on the Irish border.
On the downside we would have no effective recourse if any of the bigger countries or blocs try and shaft us. Lucky we have such good relationships with the EU, Russia and China, and that Trumpy is so internationalist and trustworthy........
WTO - My preferred Brexit. I think should be right out, and be very circumspect and wise about joining anything. In the midst of leaving is no time to be signing up to goodness knows what.
Enniskillen trading on WTO terms with Sligo? Or do you recognise that this couldn't happen?
My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile?
I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me.
> Some encouragement for Labor as they gain Gillmore in NSW from the Coalition
>
> Some encouragement? You havent been putting much away by the exit polls then?
Exit polls in Australia are not always accurate eg 1998 had Labor ahead with 53% and Howard won, early signs look similar tonight but Labor could yet scrape home as more results come in from urban areas.
Looks like One Nation doing better than polls predicted too and their preferences going to the Coalition
If it gets real close which way do the handful not of the big two fall? I seem to recall Gillard holding on that way.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @Jonathan said: > > That is a weak response, you’re as bad as those lefties still banging on about Thatcher. The onus is on those that want Brexit to come up with an actionable plan. > > --- > > I happy for the UK to end up like Norway or Switzerland, prosperous places that are not in the EU. They look sensible compromises to me. > > No more whining, wingeing lectures from Jonathan, please > > Remember in life's lost, it is Brexit, ZERO; Iraq War; > 30,000 > > Whatever the Brexiteers have done, it is nothing like the debacle of your Iraq War. Remember that when you preach to us about responsibility and politicians.
Unless you think Jo Cox would have been murdered Brexit or no, it's Brexit ONE afaiac.
> @kle4 said: > Brexit is a monster, personified by Farage. > > My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. > > She was not put off by the presentation of very picturesque areas being hotbeds of secrets and murder?
The upside is highly effective policing, with a 100% clear-up rate.....
My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile?
I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me.
Fucking lawns? Was there a Yorkshire Terrier on it, or do you just have slightly unusual tastes?
> @thecommissioner said: > Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn? > > Does your remain include Scotland being part of the UK? > > Does your remain include ever closer union? > > Does it include further EU enlargement? > > Does it include ever increasing contributions to the european budget?
Again , Leavers just love to change the subject because they have no answers and take no responsibility.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause. > > > > > > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process. > > > > > > Not yet, anyway. > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints. > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
"Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
> @Benpointer said: > Brexit is a monster, personified by Farage. > > My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading. > > I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage. > > Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile? > > I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me. > > You have a lawn reserved for sex?!
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > Some encouragement for Labor as they gain Gillmore in NSW from the Coalition > > > > > > Some encouragement? You havent been putting much away by the exit polls then? > > > > Exit polls in Australia are not always accurate eg 1998 had Labor ahead with 53% and Howard won, early signs look similar tonight but Labor could yet scrape home as more results come in from urban areas. > > > > > > Looks like One Nation doing better than polls predicted too and their preferences going to the Coalition > > If it gets real close which way do the handful not of the big two fall? I seem to recall Gillard holding on that way.
Depends who they are.
The excellent Anthony Greene from ABC has both the Liberals and Labor down 1% each nationally from the early numbers and the Coalition doing better than the opinion polls and exit polls predicted based on the results in so far, the biggest gainers are One Nation up 3% and their preferences going to the Coalition
There are so many competing courses that it's not certain which way the runners will head next but I think you're right that Revoke might be the autumnal finishing line.
I'd like to mention one of those competing voices, though, and it's Corbyn. I think he's basically anti-EU and would be okay with us leaving. He has the capacity to ignore his MPs and possibly Conference. That makes the situation even more complex. I don't think he'd countenance a 'tory' No Deal but he too might try and kick the can down the road. He and May are not so dissimilar in that regard.
> > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > Not yet, anyway.
>
>
>
> It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
>
>
> There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
"Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
That 20% Scottish support for the Brexit Party is surprising. Maybe it's a subsample effect. 15% of people living in Scotland have a more British than Scottish identity. This group isn't all Northcadbolls or proto Orange Order members. Many have a British rather than Scottish identity because they were in fact born in England. They have all the diversity of that great nation and many are culturally sensitive to the country they live in. It's hard to see what attraction Farage holds for those with a Scottish identity.
> Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn?
>
> Does your remain include Scotland being part of the UK?
>
> Does your remain include ever closer union?
>
> Does it include further EU enlargement?
>
> Does it include ever increasing contributions to the european budget?
Again , Leavers just love to change the subject because they have no answers and take no responsibility.
What’s the Leave plan?
Clean break is fine. May's deal will suffice.
Going back to the original point, which you've tried to skip past as well as failing to answer the above...
How many Labour MPs confirmed as Leavers pre-2016 vote? How many Labour constituencies voted Leave? Did the Labour Party promise to honour the referendum result in it's manifesto? How many Labour MPs have have voted for either of the leave options on offer when in parliament?
It is obvious that we are enduring a remainer/faux leaver charade in parliament.
> Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn?
>
> Does your remain include Scotland being part of the UK?
>
> Does your remain include ever closer union?
>
> Does it include further EU enlargement?
>
> Does it include ever increasing contributions to the european budget?
Again , Leavers just love to change the subject because they have no answers and take no responsibility.
What’s the Leave plan?
Wait for the EU to see sense and offer us the deal we deserve... because we're British after all!
Not quite. It's say that they are seeking that, knowing they won't, so that we no deal as the currently ascendent leavers want but they can say that it was not their fault. Personally my plan had been we leave the EU, then negotiate as hard as we could, but actually leaving the EU seems a step too far for some Brexiteers for some reason (and yes, most of the ERG even saw the WA as leaving the EU hence their voting for it reluctantly, and by the end most Tory members wanted it passed too, again reluctantly, so it would definitely have been leaving).
> @Benpointer said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn? > > > > > > Does your remain include Scotland being part of the UK? > > > > > > Does your remain include ever closer union? > > > > > > Does it include further EU enlargement? > > > > > > Does it include ever increasing contributions to the european budget? > > > > Again , Leavers just love to change the subject because they have no answers and take no responsibility. > > > > What’s the Leave plan? > > Wait for the EU to see sense and offer us the deal we deserve... because we're British after all! > > (And after all, they need us more than we need them, obvs.)
And the German car manufacturing industry will go bust if they don't compromise, didn't you know?
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @Benpointer said: > > Brexit is a monster, personified by Farage. > > > > My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading. > > > > I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage. > > > > Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile? > > > > I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me. > > > > You have a lawn reserved for sex?! > > You don't?
> > My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
> >
> > I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
> >
> > Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile?
> >
> > I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn? > > > > > > Does your remain include Scotland being part of the UK? > > > > > > Does your remain include ever closer union? > > > > > > Does it include further EU enlargement? > > > > > > Does it include ever increasing contributions to the european budget? > > > > Again , Leavers just love to change the subject because they have no answers and take no responsibility. > > > > What’s the Leave plan? > > Clean break is fine. May's deal will suffice. > > Going back to the original point, which you've tried to skip past as well as failing to answer the above... > > How many Labour MPs confirmed as Leavers pre-2016 vote? > How many Labour constituencies voted Leave? > Did the Labour Party promise to honour the referendum result in it's manifesto? > How many Labour MPs have have voted for either of the leave options on offer when in parliament? > > It is obvious that we are enduring a remainer/faux leaver charade in parliament.
Clean Break or May’s deal, which is it? Remember you have to choose one. You can’t have both. Once you decide, how are you going to convince other Leavers to vote for it?
Have the DUP started lapping at Boris' feet yet? They seem to have been a bit quiet lately, presumably deciding on how best to cause disruption and act offended about something.
What are the likely Brexit policies of the tory candidates? Will the outsiders try and differentiate from Boris? Will it be a unicorn auction? Will anyone make a case for accepting an Irish harder border in order to get the rest of the Brexity demands thru the EU? Will anyone go for revoke or referendum knowing its doomed to failure?
Johnson - Malthouse or no deal? Gove - ? deal or extend? Raab - pure no deal? Hunt - Malthouse or no deal? Hancock - ? Javid - ? Leadsom - Malthouse or no deal? Stewart - deal or referendum? Mourdant - ? McVey - ?
Perhaps one of Leadsom, Mourdant, McVey sacrificing an Irish hard border to get the deal through could be popular with the members?
Clean Break or May’s deal, which is it? Remember you have to choose one. You can’t have both. Once you decide, how are you going to convince other Leavers to vote for it?
Call a referendum. Deal or No Deal. I could live with either.
> @noneoftheabove said: > What are the likely Brexit policies of the tory candidates? Will the outsiders try and differentiate from Boris? Will it be a unicorn auction? Will anyone make a case for accepting an Irish harder border in order to get the rest of the Brexity demands thru the EU? Will anyone go for revoke or referendum knowing its doomed to failure? > > Johnson - Malthouse or no deal? > Gove - ? deal or extend? > Raab - pure no deal? > Hunt - Malthouse or no deal? > Hancock - ? > Javid - ? > Leadsom - Malthouse or no deal? > Stewart - deal or referendum? > Mourdant - ? > McVey - ? > > Perhaps one of Leadsom, Mourdant, McVey sacrificing an Irish hard border to get the deal through could be popular with the members?
And there you have the next stage of the Brexit psychodrama laid bare. There is no coherent agreed Leave plan.
> @Recidivist said: > Revoke and then what? > > Go back to normal.
A bit hopeful don't you think? Even with people beaten down by the last 3 years like me there will still be many many millions of people very angry that we have not left, the issue is not going away.
Remaining is now our best bet, but don't sell us a unicorn about it, that's no better than no dealers with promises of milk and honey.
> @thecommissioner said: > Clean Break or May’s deal, which is it? Remember you have to choose one. You can’t have both. Once you decide, how are you going to convince other Leavers to vote for it? > > Call a referendum. Deal or No Deal. I could live with either.
I thought your lot were against second votes. Obviously you’ve excluded one viable option. I suspect you’ll argue some contrived case citing by denying voters the option you improve democracy, but the real reason is that you think it might win.
If you do do that you’ll have to define what Deal or no Deal actually means beyond day one. On that there is no agreement whatsoever.
My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile?
I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me.
Fucking lawns? Was there a Yorkshire Terrier on it, or do you just have slightly unusual tastes?
I recently told the Poland anecdote at a Sixth Form careers thing at a boys' school. Went down a storm. They didn't get the Hong Kong anecdote. The audience has to be 21+ and at least one third of the way down a bottle of Pusser's to get that.
Lawngate has been triggered by me scrapping one of my BMW parts donor cars. The gentleman of the travelling community who came to get the shell drove his three tonner across the lawn. She's not impressed.
> @Recidivist said: > Revoke and then what? > > Go back to normal.
We can't go back to the past.
My guess is that we would get PM Corby, & probably with a healthy majority if he can avoid the blame (which he should be able to, as he has done nothing of note).
And I am happy with that. Let's make the rich Remainers pay !
> @Mysticrose said: > A great article, David H. Congratulations. > > There are so many competing courses that it's not certain which way the runners will head next but I think you're right that Revoke might be the autumnal finishing line. > > I'd like to mention one of those competing voices, though, and it's Corbyn. I think he's basically anti-EU and would be okay with us leaving. He has the capacity to ignore his MPs and possibly Conference. That makes the situation even more complex. I don't think he'd countenance a 'tory' No Deal but he too might try and kick the can down the road. He and May are not so dissimilar in that regard.
FWIW I think both parts of this are mistaken. He's not anti-EU, he's mildly pro but doesn't care that much and thinks the difference between membership and soft Brexit is not big enough to warrant the current psychodrama gripping the nation at the expense of dealing with stuff like health and housing and, um, nationalising water (even as a Corbynite I don't get why that's a priority). But he does very much want to move on, and kicking the can down the road is worse than anything.
And yet, as David points out, eventually one of these 3 has to happen.
Revoke might be dressed up with a second referendum but the contempt that the political class have shown to the view of the people, having asked them, will remain no matter what and our politics is sorely damaged. So far as engagement, credibility and even participation is concerned this is at least 10x worse than the expenses scandal. The damage this alienation will do to our country is on a different scale to anything that might have been caused by Brexit.
For me, the only way forward is, somewhat ironically, through the EU. I would expect them to say that October is it. Either we revoke and re-engage committing ourselves to the next budget round, taking up a Commissioner, try to regain some of the crumbs that left our table or we leave. If we leave it is on no deal or May's deal. No more negotiations. Our pathetic political class must no longer be given the option of not making decisions.
The trouble is that if we have a political class - which is not something I'd take as a given - it is as split on Brexit as everyone else. Speaking personally I am a bit pissed off with the Labour Party, totally in despair over the Tories and contemptuous of the ERG and the Brexit Party. I don't see any reason why I should lump them all together.
My guess is that we would get PM Corby, & probably with a healthy majority if he can avoid the blame (which he should be able to, as he has done nothing of note).
And I am happy with that. Let's make the rich Remainers pay !
PM Corbyn was coming anyway. It is pretty clear that the decades long drift to the right in political thinking has now been reversed and we are going back in the opposite direction.
> @kle4 said: > > @nico67 said: > > Tony Abbott ex PM the Brexit arse licker looks like he’s lost his Sydney seat . > > Has he done anything in particular to upset them? Without a big national swing what's behind the ousting of such an established figure do we know?
I don’t know enough about Aussie politics but they do seem to have a lot of turnover in PMs.
Depending on the result this could be the sixth different one in the space of six years !
> @Recidivist said: > There is not a majority for May's deal. > > There is clearly a majority against no deal. > > There is probably not a majority for revoke. > > > > And yet, as David points out, eventually one of these 3 has to happen. > > > > Revoke might be dressed up with a second referendum but the contempt that the political class have shown to the view of the people, having asked them, will remain no matter what and our politics is sorely damaged. So far as engagement, credibility and even participation is concerned this is at least 10x worse than the expenses scandal. The damage this alienation will do to our country is on a different scale to anything that might have been caused by Brexit. > > > > For me, the only way forward is, somewhat ironically, through the EU. I would expect them to say that October is it. Either we revoke and re-engage committing ourselves to the next budget round, taking up a Commissioner, try to regain some of the crumbs that left our table or we leave. If we leave it is on no deal or May's deal. No more negotiations. Our pathetic political class must no longer be given the option of not making decisions. > > The trouble is that if we have a political class - which is not something I'd take as a given - it is as split on Brexit as everyone else. Speaking personally I am a bit pissed off with the Labour Party, totally in despair over the Tories and contemptuous of the ERG and the Brexit Party. I don't see any reason why I should lump them all together.
Blaming politicians is an easy cop out. We get the politicians we vote for. They reflect us.
> Blaming politicians is an easy cop out. We get the politicians we vote for. They reflect us. -------------
That's true, although I don't think it unfair to hold them to a slightly higher standard them ourselves - they have chosen to ask for and been granted power over the rest of us, they are supposed to do more than just reflect how messed up we are, there is a reasonable expectation they will try to find a way through things.
Granted, we get the politicians we deserve, we reward the behaviours we complain about and punish things like frank honesty or compromise, but there is a middle ground to avoiding any responsibilty ourselves and putting it all on the politicians.
> @Recidivist said: > PM Corbyn was coming anyway. It is pretty clear that the decades long drift to the right in political thinking has now been reversed and we are going back in the opposite direction.
Fine. My point is we are not going back to pre-Referendum days, when some people benefit massively from being in the EU at the expense of others.
> @kle4 said: > > @nico67 said: > > Tony Abbott ex PM the Brexit arse licker looks like he’s lost his Sydney seat . > > Has he done anything in particular to upset them? Without a big national swing what's behind the ousting of such an established figure do we know?
He has lost his seat to an appeal to all sides independent Zali Steggall who is a former Aussie Olympic ski-ier. Its a wealthy urban Sydney seat which like similar places here and elsewhere are trending more left wing. Climate change may also be an issue given its a coastal seat.
She has had to come out and oppose Labor's tax plans - because her new on the whole wealthy constituents want of course to look good as long as they don't have to suffer personally!
Lots of factors but his support for Brexit probably wasn't a key issue locally!
> @kle4 said: > > @nico67 said: > > Tony Abbott ex PM the Brexit arse licker looks like he’s lost his Sydney seat . > > Has he done anything in particular to upset them? Without a big national swing what's behind the ousting of such an established figure do we know?
Climate change has risen up the agenda. He was also apparently somewhat full of churl about the death of Bob Hawke. Chuck in popular independent candidate, and hey presto.
> Call a referendum. Deal or No Deal. I could live with either.
I thought your lot were against second votes. Obviously you’ve excluded one viable option. I suspect you’ll argue some contrived case citing by denying voters the option you improve democracy, but the real reason is that you think it might win.
If you do do that you’ll have to define what Deal or no Deal actually means beyond day one. On that there is no agreement whatsoever.
That proves the point - some people were never going to reconcile themselves to the people voting to leave.
They were never open to 'reaching out', and don't even want to meaningfully engage on an offer to influence the final outcome on something the public have already voted for.
I can't see why anyone who voted Remain but who genuinely believes the result should be respected would be against a final vote on whether we leave with a clean break/no deal/WTO or whether we should take the deal the government has negotiated. Similarly, I can't see why any leaver would justifiably be against these choices as a reasonable way of settling this.
Climate change has risen up the agenda. He was also apparently somewhat full of churl about the death of Bob Hawke. Chuck in popular independent candidate, and hey presto.
> @williamglenn said: > Climate change has risen up the agenda. He was also apparently somewhat full of churl about the death of Bob Hawke. Chuck in popular independent candidate, and hey presto. > > He issued an appallingly political statement following Bob Hawke's death. > https://twitter.com/TonyAbbottMHR/status/1128969163911811072
--
Not the right time or place to say it.
But Hawke created the first Thatcherite Labor Party.
It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
In order to have a preferential relationship with the continent, we need to have a preferential relationship with the EU.
I don't want a preferential relationship with them. I would expect reciprocal low, or no tariffs because it would benefit both parties, but if it didn't happen it would be no cause for anguish. The clothes I'm wearing are mostly from India. The phone I'm on is Japanese (goodness knows where its actually made but its outside the EU). Find a good product, market it well, offer it at the right price. That's how to prosper. Needing to be part of a vast bureaucracy in order to get a few pennies off a pound of butter is utterly absurd.
Some people prefer quality from Germany , style from Italy , etc rather than cheap tat from asia
> @thecommissioner said: > > Call a referendum. Deal or No Deal. I could live with either. > > > > I thought your lot were against second votes. Obviously you’ve excluded one viable option. I suspect you’ll argue some contrived case citing by denying voters the option you improve democracy, but the real reason is that you think it might win. > > > > If you do do that you’ll have to define what Deal or no Deal actually means beyond day one. On that there is no agreement whatsoever. > > That proves the point - some people were never going to reconcile themselves to the people voting to leave. > > They were never open to 'reaching out', and don't even want to meaningfully engage on an offer to influence the final outcome the public have already voted for. > > I can't see why anyone who voted Remain but who genuinely believes the result should be respected would be against a final vote on whether we leave with a clean break/no deal/WTO or whether we should take the deal the government has negotiated. Similarly, I can't see why any leaver would justifiably be against these choices.
Leavers are yet to propose a workable plan that does not take huge political or economic risks.. Speaking for myself,I was perfectly open to a well thought through plan that offered something (anything) for the future. In 2016, I could see pros and cons - the ideological nonsense spouted by Leavers and their rhetoric of betrayal with essentially no grip on reality hardened me the other way.
At present there is nothing offered to me by Brexit . Absolutely nothing. By all means respect the result, but it is not a blank cheque with considerable risk. Leave no matter the consequences is not acceptable. For that reason alone, Remain is revived as a viable option.
"Here's Julie Bishop on Tony Abbott losing his seat She's speaking on Channel Nine. She says she thinks it was "inevitable when you look at two issues of climate change and marriage equality".
"I'm very sad. He was a Prime Minister of the country. He has been a cabinet minister for a very long time.
"I was his deputy back in 2013 and he ran one of the most disciplined campaigns.
"But I come back to that issue of climate change, he's a climate change denier personified and clearly out of step with his electorate."
> @thecommissioner said: > > Call a referendum. Deal or No Deal. I could live with either. > > > > I thought your lot were against second votes. Obviously you’ve excluded one viable option. I suspect you’ll argue some contrived case citing by denying voters the option you improve democracy, but the real reason is that you think it might win. > > > > If you do do that you’ll have to define what Deal or no Deal actually means beyond day one. On that there is no agreement whatsoever. > > That proves the point - some people were never going to reconcile themselves to the people voting to leave. > > They were never open to 'reaching out', and don't even want to meaningfully engage on an offer to influence the final outcome on something the public have already voted for. > > I can't see why anyone who voted Remain but who genuinely believes the result should be respected would be against a final vote on whether we leave with a clean break/no deal/WTO or whether we should take the deal the government has negotiated. Similarly, I can't see why any leaver would justifiably be against these choices as a reasonable way of settling this.
I can accept deal but undefined no deal through a referendum is the worst possible option we can choose from here. It is as vague and undefined as leave was.
After we leave the UK government needs to be sovereign again and able to make international agreements. A vague no deal referendum results in that sovereignty being limited and creates a democratic conflict between the referendum result and the general election vote.
A referendum result that is vague and not supported by parliament has just caused at least 3 years of paralysis and failure in our politics, repeating it would be another disaster.
If no deal is to be on the ballot it needs to be clear what it means until at least the next General Election. Leavers wont do this as it requires work and effort, and it will split the coalition of global free trade UK, anti immigration UK and statist Corbyn UK who all think Brexit means their Brexit, rather than the other ones.
That 20% Scottish support for the Brexit Party is surprising. Maybe it's a subsample effect. 15% of people living in Scotland have a more British than Scottish identity. This group isn't all Northcadbolls or proto Orange Order members. Many have a British rather than Scottish identity because they were in fact born in England. They have all the diversity of that great nation and many are culturally sensitive to the country they live in. It's hard to see what attraction Farage holds for those with a Scottish identity.
Its a subsample so anyone taking any notice of it is not right in the head. I would be happy to have a wager with anyone that they will not get 20% in Scotland, in the unlikely event someone has money they want to give away.
The comments on Pollbludger are a bit like this place was on 9/6/17. A couple of results are in and everyone is certain of the result. Over there, the pro-Coalition commenters they have won and are sticking the knife into the Labor/Green supporters.
Out in the real world, the early Queensland results were poor for Labor - is this because the early boxes are in the more rural areas? Later results looking much better but far too early to determine the outcome.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @dixiedean said: > > Looks like the recurrent 52-48 theme has reached Oz. > > If Labor does win the election 52% to 48% the Colaition should refuse to give up power until the election is rerun...
People could change their minds maybe. A final say*
> > My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
> >
> > I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
> >
> > Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile?
> >
> > I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me.
Thank you, David, for your usual interesting and well-argued piece and, as is often the case when not dealing with solely Conservative issues, I'm in general agreement.
Revoke has been on the cards ever since mid January as you say but to even articulate the possibility has been to draw the fire of the Rejectionists who want us out no matter the consequences. May's resolute failure to even consider No Deal presumably stems as much from the guidance she has been given as to the potential economic and social dislocation as to any strong ideological issue.
Presumably she would then favour Revoke over No Deal but her opinion is ceasing to have significance by the hour. What then of her likely successors? They will inherit exactly the same hand - back to the two options, will Johnson revoke or No Deal? Will Raab? Will Javid? Will Mordaunt?
It's all very well talking big about going back to Brussels but the EU won't be impressed - the WA is there as it always has been, the arithmetic of parliament won't have changed either and neither, I suspect, will the internal divisions within the Conservative Party. Indeed, one could argue the forthcoming Conservative leadership election is an exercise in self-indulgence and irrelevance.
David is probably right in saying it will likely come down to Revoke vs No Deal after Conference season with the 31/10 deadline looming.
Australia seems to be a country where swings can go in different directions depending on where you are. The Liberals look to have harnessed the trends better than Labor in this election.
I like Rachel Johnson but she really should have stuck with the Lib Dems . I think Change UK became over confident when they were the Ind group and then since then it’s been a total shambles .
I like Rachel Johnson but she really should have stuck with the Lib Dems . I think Change UK became over confident when they were the Ind group and then since then it’s been a total shambles .
The 'Never Boris' Tory MPs like Greening will head to the LibDems I think, after these EU elections have shown the party has life in it after all. Change UK seem to think the LD brand was permanently 'Ratnered'. It seems not.
Comments
Does your remain include ever closer union?
Does it include further EU enlargement?
Does it include ever increasing contributions to the european budget?
> That is a weak response, you’re as bad as those lefties still banging on about Thatcher. The onus is on those that want Brexit to come up with an actionable plan.
---
I happy for the UK to end up like Norway or Switzerland, prosperous places that are not in the EU. They look sensible compromises to me.
No more whining, wingeing lectures from Jonathan, please
Remember in life's lost, it is Brexit, ZERO; Iraq War; > 30,000
Whatever the Brexiteers have done, it is nothing like the debacle of your Iraq War. Remember that when you preach to us about responsibility and politicians.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> >
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> >
> > > > The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously:
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same.
> >
> >
> >
> > Farage, May 2019:
> >
> > "You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result."
> >
> >
> >
> > Farage, Mahy 2016:
> >
> > "There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said."
> >
> >
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
> >
> >
> >
> > It seems Farage's views on what losers should depends on whether he is on the losing or winning side ...
> >
> > Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular.
> >
> > He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters.
>
> You and others are making the mistake of playing the man, not the ball. Of course Farage is a flawed instrument. He's a liar, a dissembler, a hypocrite, a politican for god's sake. But this message resonates. Despite the messenger. Our political class are playing with fire.
Don't be a silly sausage. Of course the message resonates: but the fact it does so does not mean that he should not be called out on such things.
On another point, in the case of the Brexit Party, the man (Farage) *is* the ball, as there's f'all substance to the party aside from him. You cannot attack them on policies, as they don't have a manifesto, and Farage will say whatever shit comes into his head to get him in the media.
So yes, he does need calling out on it.
> Some encouragement for Labor as they gain Gillmore in NSW from the Coalition
>
> Some encouragement? You havent been putting much away by the exit polls then?
Exit polls in Australia are not always accurate eg 1998 had Labor ahead with 53% and Howard narrowly won, early signs look similar tonight but Labor could yet scrape home as more results come in from urban areas.
Looks like One Nation doing better than polls predicted too and their preferences going to the Coalition
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
>
> >
>
> > I think a reasonable explanation of 'WTO' would be that we leave every aspect of EU membership, enjoying none of the economic benefits of membership, suffering none of the economic liabilities of membership, and continuing to trade with the EU as a third party, like India, China, Botswana etc. It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
>
>
>
> _____________________
>
>
>
> The UK government went into considerable detail of No Deal Brexit means. It didn't make pretty reading and Dominic Raab was very uncomfortable explaining them during his brief unsuccessful stint as Brexit Sec. The notices split into two basic statements: 1. Businesses etc make your own plans because you will be screwed. 2. A deal on this particular thing has to happen because otherwise we are all screwed.
>
>
>
> You don't think in the case of 2. that the EU won't go, sure, a deal, now about the withdrawal agreement ... ?
>
>
>
> In what way is this better than accepting the WA upfront?
>
> You're conflating 'no deal', a situation where there are no interim arrangements and no agreed process for leaving, with WTO, which is leaving in an agreed way, but totally. I don't think no deal is necessarily better than the WA and I've never said so. I think the following:
> WTO - My preferred Brexit. I think should be right out, and be very circumspect and wise about joining anything. In the midst of leaving is no time to be signing up to goodness knows what.
> No Deal - don't want it but wouldn't be as terrible as fantasised about, and should have remained very much on the table as an option in the negotiations
> May's deal - not ideal but it was Brexit and would have liked it passed rather than the current mess.
____________
How can you leave in an agreed way with deals and not have an agreed deal? This isn't a rhetorical question. Sooner rather than later we will have to face reality and no-one works that way.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
>
> >
>
> > I think a reasonable explanation of 'WTO' would be that we leave every aspect of EU membership, enjoying none of the economic benefits of membership, suffering none of the economic liabilities of membership, and continuing to trade with the EU as a third party, like India, China, Botswana etc. It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
>
>
>
> _____________________
>
>
>
> The UK government went into considerable detail of No Deal Brexit means. It didn't make pretty reading and Dominic Raab was very uncomfortable explaining them during his brief unsuccessful stint as Brexit Sec. The notices split into two basic statements: 1. Businesses etc make your own plans because you will be screwed. 2. A deal on this particular thing has to happen because otherwise we are all screwed.
>
>
>
> You don't think in the case of 2. that the EU won't go, sure, a deal, now about the withdrawal agreement ... ?
>
>
>
> In what way is this better than accepting the WA upfront?
>
> You're conflating 'no deal', a situation where there are no interim arrangements and no agreed process for leaving, with WTO, which is leaving in an agreed way, but totally. I don't think no deal is necessarily better than the WA and I've never said so. I think the following:
> WTO - My preferred Brexit. I think should be right out, and be very circumspect and wise about joining anything. In the midst of leaving is no time to be signing up to goodness knows what.
> No Deal - don't want it but wouldn't be as terrible as fantasised about, and should have remained very much on the table as an option in the negotiations
> May's deal - not ideal but it was Brexit and would have liked it passed rather than the current mess.
Another issue with WTO is Trump. If Trump wins another election there is a fair chance the US withdraws from WTO which could lead to its collapse. If he doesnt withdraw he will paralyse it so it cannot make any decisions. On the plus side it probably means it would take decades, if ever, for us to be found guilty of breaking rules on the Irish border.
On the downside we would have no effective recourse if any of the bigger countries or blocs try and shaft us. Lucky we have such good relationships with the EU, Russia and China, and that Trumpy is so internationalist and trustworthy........
> > @Jonathan said:
> > That is a weak response, you’re as bad as those lefties still banging on about Thatcher. The onus is on those that want Brexit to come up with an actionable plan.
>
> ---
>
> I happy for the UK to end up like Norway or Switzerland, prosperous places that are not in the EU. They look sensible compromises to me.
>
> No more whining, wingeing lectures from Jonathan, please
>
> Remember in life's lost, it is Brexit, ZERO; Iraq War; > 30,000
>
> Whatever the Brexiteers have done, it is nothing like the debacle of your Iraq War. Remember that when you preach to us about responsibility and politicians.
Unless you think Jo Cox would have been murdered Brexit or no, it's Brexit ONE afaiac.
Coalition 53
Labour 41
Other 4
The above confirmed are the safe seats.
But 52 seats are still up for grabs.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results
> Brexit is a monster, personified by Farage.
>
> My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders.
>
> She was not put off by the presentation of very picturesque areas being hotbeds of secrets and murder?
The upside is highly effective policing, with a 100% clear-up rate.....
>
> Unless you think Jo Cox would have been murdered Brexit or no, it's Brexit ONE afaiac.
Fairish point.
> Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn?
>
> Does your remain include Scotland being part of the UK?
>
> Does your remain include ever closer union?
>
> Does it include further EU enlargement?
>
> Does it include ever increasing contributions to the european budget?
Again , Leavers just love to change the subject because they have no answers and take no responsibility.
What’s the Leave plan?
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > Not yet, anyway.
>
>
>
> It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
>
>
> There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
>
>
>
> Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
"Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
> Brexit is a monster, personified by Farage.
>
> My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
>
> I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
>
> Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile?
>
> I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me.
>
> You have a lawn reserved for sex?!
You don't?
Now Coalition 50 Labor 44 Greens 1 Others 4, so just 1 seat separates the Coalition from the rest of the parties combined.
Looking very tight in Australia
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > Some encouragement for Labor as they gain Gillmore in NSW from the Coalition
>
> >
>
> > Some encouragement? You havent been putting much away by the exit polls then?
>
>
>
> Exit polls in Australia are not always accurate eg 1998 had Labor ahead with 53% and Howard won, early signs look similar tonight but Labor could yet scrape home as more results come in from urban areas.
>
>
>
>
>
> Looks like One Nation doing better than polls predicted too and their preferences going to the Coalition
>
> If it gets real close which way do the handful not of the big two fall? I seem to recall Gillard holding on that way.
Depends who they are.
The excellent Anthony Greene from ABC has both the Liberals and Labor down 1% each nationally from the early numbers and the Coalition doing better than the opinion polls and exit polls predicted based on the results in so far, the biggest gainers are One Nation up 3% and their preferences going to the Coalition
There are so many competing courses that it's not certain which way the runners will head next but I think you're right that Revoke might be the autumnal finishing line.
I'd like to mention one of those competing voices, though, and it's Corbyn. I think he's basically anti-EU and would be okay with us leaving. He has the capacity to ignore his MPs and possibly Conference. That makes the situation even more complex. I don't think he'd countenance a 'tory' No Deal but he too might try and kick the can down the road. He and May are not so dissimilar in that regard.
Going back to the original point, which you've tried to skip past as well as failing to answer the above...
How many Labour MPs confirmed as Leavers pre-2016 vote?
How many Labour constituencies voted Leave?
Did the Labour Party promise to honour the referendum result in it's manifesto?
How many Labour MPs have have voted for either of the leave options on offer when in parliament?
It is obvious that we are enduring a remainer/faux leaver charade in parliament.
The coalition for example has actually gained two seats from Labour so far.
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn?
>
> >
>
> > Does your remain include Scotland being part of the UK?
>
> >
>
> > Does your remain include ever closer union?
>
> >
>
> > Does it include further EU enlargement?
>
> >
>
> > Does it include ever increasing contributions to the european budget?
>
>
>
> Again , Leavers just love to change the subject because they have no answers and take no responsibility.
>
>
>
> What’s the Leave plan?
>
> Wait for the EU to see sense and offer us the deal we deserve... because we're British after all!
>
> (And after all, they need us more than we need them, obvs.)
And the German car manufacturing industry will go bust if they don't compromise, didn't you know?
> > @Benpointer said:
> > Brexit is a monster, personified by Farage.
> >
> > My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
> >
> > I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
> >
> > Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile?
> >
> > I meant -phile. She was talking to me about the fucking lawn and distracted me.
> >
> > You have a lawn reserved for sex?!
>
> You don't?
Doesn't everyone!
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn?
>
> >
>
> > Does your remain include Scotland being part of the UK?
>
> >
>
> > Does your remain include ever closer union?
>
> >
>
> > Does it include further EU enlargement?
>
> >
>
> > Does it include ever increasing contributions to the european budget?
>
>
>
> Again , Leavers just love to change the subject because they have no answers and take no responsibility.
>
>
>
> What’s the Leave plan?
>
> Clean break is fine. May's deal will suffice.
>
> Going back to the original point, which you've tried to skip past as well as failing to answer the above...
>
> How many Labour MPs confirmed as Leavers pre-2016 vote?
> How many Labour constituencies voted Leave?
> Did the Labour Party promise to honour the referendum result in it's manifesto?
> How many Labour MPs have have voted for either of the leave options on offer when in parliament?
>
> It is obvious that we are enduring a remainer/faux leaver charade in parliament.
Clean Break or May’s deal, which is it? Remember you have to choose one. You can’t have both. Once you decide, how are you going to convince other Leavers to vote for it?
What is the minority stake in international trade in services that the EU has with the UK?
I have a romance arboretum.
Johnson - Malthouse or no deal?
Gove - ? deal or extend?
Raab - pure no deal?
Hunt - Malthouse or no deal?
Hancock - ?
Javid - ?
Leadsom - Malthouse or no deal?
Stewart - deal or referendum?
Mourdant - ?
McVey - ?
Perhaps one of Leadsom, Mourdant, McVey sacrificing an Irish hard border to get the deal through could be popular with the members?
Following Pollbludger, the Aussie equivalent of PB and certainly Labor are not doing that well in Queensland and parts of Victoria at this time.
I'm just musing on the Aussie equivalent of OGH - one man, a hat and a beer on a porch out beyond Dubbo...
There's probably an Aussie Stodge too enjoying a lamington and a meat pie.
> What are the likely Brexit policies of the tory candidates? Will the outsiders try and differentiate from Boris? Will it be a unicorn auction? Will anyone make a case for accepting an Irish harder border in order to get the rest of the Brexity demands thru the EU? Will anyone go for revoke or referendum knowing its doomed to failure?
>
> Johnson - Malthouse or no deal?
> Gove - ? deal or extend?
> Raab - pure no deal?
> Hunt - Malthouse or no deal?
> Hancock - ?
> Javid - ?
> Leadsom - Malthouse or no deal?
> Stewart - deal or referendum?
> Mourdant - ?
> McVey - ?
>
> Perhaps one of Leadsom, Mourdant, McVey sacrificing an Irish hard border to get the deal through could be popular with the members?
And there you have the next stage of the Brexit psychodrama laid bare. There is no coherent agreed Leave plan.
> Revoke and then what?
>
> Go back to normal.
A bit hopeful don't you think? Even with people beaten down by the last 3 years like me there will still be many many millions of people very angry that we have not left, the issue is not going away.
Remaining is now our best bet, but don't sell us a unicorn about it, that's no better than no dealers with promises of milk and honey.
Coalition 57 Labor 58 Greens 1 Others 4
> Clean Break or May’s deal, which is it? Remember you have to choose one. You can’t have both. Once you decide, how are you going to convince other Leavers to vote for it?
>
> Call a referendum. Deal or No Deal. I could live with either.
I thought your lot were against second votes. Obviously you’ve excluded one viable option. I suspect you’ll argue some contrived case citing by denying voters the option you improve democracy, but the real reason is that you think it might win.
If you do do that you’ll have to define what Deal or no Deal actually means beyond day one. On that there is no agreement whatsoever.
Lawngate has been triggered by me scrapping one of my BMW parts donor cars. The gentleman of the travelling community who came to get the shell drove his three tonner across the lawn. She's not impressed.
> Revoke and then what?
>
> Go back to normal.
We can't go back to the past.
My guess is that we would get PM Corby, & probably with a healthy majority if he can avoid the blame (which he should be able to, as he has done nothing of note).
And I am happy with that. Let's make the rich Remainers pay !
> A great article, David H. Congratulations.
>
> There are so many competing courses that it's not certain which way the runners will head next but I think you're right that Revoke might be the autumnal finishing line.
>
> I'd like to mention one of those competing voices, though, and it's Corbyn. I think he's basically anti-EU and would be okay with us leaving. He has the capacity to ignore his MPs and possibly Conference. That makes the situation even more complex. I don't think he'd countenance a 'tory' No Deal but he too might try and kick the can down the road. He and May are not so dissimilar in that regard.
FWIW I think both parts of this are mistaken. He's not anti-EU, he's mildly pro but doesn't care that much and thinks the difference between membership and soft Brexit is not big enough to warrant the current psychodrama gripping the nation at the expense of dealing with stuff like health and housing and, um, nationalising water (even as a Corbynite I don't get why that's a priority). But he does very much want to move on, and kicking the can down the road is worse than anything.
> I don't have a fucking lawn.
>
> I have a romance arboretum.
Tree lover, are you?
> Tony Abbott ex PM the Brexit arse licker looks like he’s lost his Sydney seat .
Has he done anything in particular to upset them? Without a big national swing what's behind the ousting of such an established figure do we know?
> > @nico67 said:
> > Tony Abbott ex PM the Brexit arse licker looks like he’s lost his Sydney seat .
>
> Has he done anything in particular to upset them? Without a big national swing what's behind the ousting of such an established figure do we know?
I don’t know enough about Aussie politics but they do seem to have a lot of turnover in PMs.
Depending on the result this could be the sixth different one in the space of six years !
> There is not a majority for May's deal.
>
> There is clearly a majority against no deal.
>
> There is probably not a majority for revoke.
>
>
>
> And yet, as David points out, eventually one of these 3 has to happen.
>
>
>
> Revoke might be dressed up with a second referendum but the contempt that the political class have shown to the view of the people, having asked them, will remain no matter what and our politics is sorely damaged. So far as engagement, credibility and even participation is concerned this is at least 10x worse than the expenses scandal. The damage this alienation will do to our country is on a different scale to anything that might have been caused by Brexit.
>
>
>
> For me, the only way forward is, somewhat ironically, through the EU. I would expect them to say that October is it. Either we revoke and re-engage committing ourselves to the next budget round, taking up a Commissioner, try to regain some of the crumbs that left our table or we leave. If we leave it is on no deal or May's deal. No more negotiations. Our pathetic political class must no longer be given the option of not making decisions.
>
> The trouble is that if we have a political class - which is not something I'd take as a given - it is as split on Brexit as everyone else. Speaking personally I am a bit pissed off with the Labour Party, totally in despair over the Tories and contemptuous of the ERG and the Brexit Party. I don't see any reason why I should lump them all together.
Blaming politicians is an easy cop out. We get the politicians we vote for. They reflect us.
> Blaming politicians is an easy cop out. We get the politicians we vote for. They reflect us.
-------------
That's true, although I don't think it unfair to hold them to a slightly higher standard them ourselves - they have chosen to ask for and been granted power over the rest of us, they are supposed to do more than just reflect how messed up we are, there is a reasonable expectation they will try to find a way through things.
Granted, we get the politicians we deserve, we reward the behaviours we complain about and punish things like frank honesty or compromise, but there is a middle ground to avoiding any responsibilty ourselves and putting it all on the politicians.
> PM Corbyn was coming anyway. It is pretty clear that the decades long drift to the right in political thinking has now been reversed and we are going back in the opposite direction.
Fine. My point is we are not going back to pre-Referendum days, when some people benefit massively from being in the EU at the expense of others.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Tony Abbott ex PM the Brexit arse licker looks like he’s lost his Sydney seat .
>
> Has he done anything in particular to upset them? Without a big national swing what's behind the ousting of such an established figure do we know?
He has lost his seat to an appeal to all sides independent Zali Steggall who is a former Aussie Olympic ski-ier. Its a wealthy urban Sydney seat which like similar places here and elsewhere are trending more left wing. Climate change may also be an issue given its a coastal seat.
She has had to come out and oppose Labor's tax plans - because her new on the whole wealthy constituents want of course to look good as long as they don't have to suffer personally!
Lots of factors but his support for Brexit probably wasn't a key issue locally!
> > @nico67 said:
> > Tony Abbott ex PM the Brexit arse licker looks like he’s lost his Sydney seat .
>
> Has he done anything in particular to upset them? Without a big national swing what's behind the ousting of such an established figure do we know?
Climate change has risen up the agenda. He was also apparently somewhat full of churl about the death of Bob Hawke. Chuck in popular independent candidate, and hey presto.
They were never open to 'reaching out', and don't even want to meaningfully engage on an offer to influence the final outcome on something the public have already voted for.
I can't see why anyone who voted Remain but who genuinely believes the result should be respected would be against a final vote on whether we leave with a clean break/no deal/WTO or whether we should take the deal the government has negotiated. Similarly, I can't see why any leaver would justifiably be against these choices as a reasonable way of settling this.
https://twitter.com/TonyAbbottMHR/status/1128969163911811072
They're losing seats, not gaining them.
> Climate change has risen up the agenda. He was also apparently somewhat full of churl about the death of Bob Hawke. Chuck in popular independent candidate, and hey presto.
>
> He issued an appallingly political statement following Bob Hawke's death.
> https://twitter.com/TonyAbbottMHR/status/1128969163911811072
--
Not the right time or place to say it.
But Hawke created the first Thatcherite Labor Party.
> > Call a referendum. Deal or No Deal. I could live with either.
>
>
>
> I thought your lot were against second votes. Obviously you’ve excluded one viable option. I suspect you’ll argue some contrived case citing by denying voters the option you improve democracy, but the real reason is that you think it might win.
>
>
>
> If you do do that you’ll have to define what Deal or no Deal actually means beyond day one. On that there is no agreement whatsoever.
>
> That proves the point - some people were never going to reconcile themselves to the people voting to leave.
>
> They were never open to 'reaching out', and don't even want to meaningfully engage on an offer to influence the final outcome the public have already voted for.
>
> I can't see why anyone who voted Remain but who genuinely believes the result should be respected would be against a final vote on whether we leave with a clean break/no deal/WTO or whether we should take the deal the government has negotiated. Similarly, I can't see why any leaver would justifiably be against these choices.
Leavers are yet to propose a workable plan that does not take huge political or economic risks.. Speaking for myself,I was perfectly open to a well thought through plan that offered something (anything) for the future. In 2016, I could see pros and cons - the ideological nonsense spouted by Leavers and their rhetoric of betrayal with essentially no grip on reality hardened me the other way.
At present there is nothing offered to me by Brexit . Absolutely nothing. By all means respect the result, but it is not a blank cheque with considerable risk. Leave no matter the consequences is not acceptable. For that reason alone, Remain is revived as a viable option.
> Mr. Punter, I only have eyes for yew.
Ouch.....I was tempted to tell you to get your coat after that, Morris, but I now have to get mine and return to my Cotswolds haven.
Back later, when I hope we have some more polls to chew over.
TTFN.
She's speaking on Channel Nine. She says she thinks it was "inevitable when you look at two issues of climate change and marriage equality".
"I'm very sad. He was a Prime Minister of the country. He has been a cabinet minister for a very long time.
"I was his deputy back in 2013 and he ran one of the most disciplined campaigns.
"But I come back to that issue of climate change, he's a climate change denier personified and clearly out of step with his electorate."
> I know Abbot has lost his seat, but £5 on the blues in Australia it is.
There is only one ALP gain, I think they aren't going to win.
Looks the polls were off a bit in a tight election.
> > Call a referendum. Deal or No Deal. I could live with either.
>
>
>
> I thought your lot were against second votes. Obviously you’ve excluded one viable option. I suspect you’ll argue some contrived case citing by denying voters the option you improve democracy, but the real reason is that you think it might win.
>
>
>
> If you do do that you’ll have to define what Deal or no Deal actually means beyond day one. On that there is no agreement whatsoever.
>
> That proves the point - some people were never going to reconcile themselves to the people voting to leave.
>
> They were never open to 'reaching out', and don't even want to meaningfully engage on an offer to influence the final outcome on something the public have already voted for.
>
> I can't see why anyone who voted Remain but who genuinely believes the result should be respected would be against a final vote on whether we leave with a clean break/no deal/WTO or whether we should take the deal the government has negotiated. Similarly, I can't see why any leaver would justifiably be against these choices as a reasonable way of settling this.
I can accept deal but undefined no deal through a referendum is the worst possible option we can choose from here. It is as vague and undefined as leave was.
After we leave the UK government needs to be sovereign again and able to make international agreements. A vague no deal referendum results in that sovereignty being limited and creates a democratic conflict between the referendum result and the general election vote.
A referendum result that is vague and not supported by parliament has just caused at least 3 years of paralysis and failure in our politics, repeating it would be another disaster.
If no deal is to be on the ballot it needs to be clear what it means until at least the next General Election. Leavers wont do this as it requires work and effort, and it will split the coalition of global free trade UK, anti immigration UK and statist Corbyn UK who all think Brexit means their Brexit, rather than the other ones.
> Looks like the recurrent 52-48 theme has reached Oz.
If Labor does win the election 52% to 48% the Colaition should refuse to give up power until the election is rerun...
Out in the real world, the early Queensland results were poor for Labor - is this because the early boxes are in the more rural areas? Later results looking much better but far too early to determine the outcome.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Looks like the recurrent 52-48 theme has reached Oz.
>
> If Labor does win the election 52% to 48% the Colaition should refuse to give up power until the election is rerun...
People could change their minds maybe. A final say*
* If the wrong lot win
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1129691880919314433
Revoke has been on the cards ever since mid January as you say but to even articulate the possibility has been to draw the fire of the Rejectionists who want us out no matter the consequences. May's resolute failure to even consider No Deal presumably stems as much from the guidance she has been given as to the potential economic and social dislocation as to any strong ideological issue.
Presumably she would then favour Revoke over No Deal but her opinion is ceasing to have significance by the hour. What then of her likely successors? They will inherit exactly the same hand - back to the two options, will Johnson revoke or No Deal? Will Raab? Will Javid? Will Mordaunt?
It's all very well talking big about going back to Brussels but the EU won't be impressed - the WA is there as it always has been, the arithmetic of parliament won't have changed either and neither, I suspect, will the internal divisions within the Conservative Party. Indeed, one could argue the forthcoming Conservative leadership election is an exercise in self-indulgence and irrelevance.
David is probably right in saying it will likely come down to Revoke vs No Deal after Conference season with the 31/10 deadline looming.
> https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1129680862503723008
All going well then...
> https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1129680862503723008
I like Rachel Johnson but she really should have stuck with the Lib Dems . I think Change UK became over confident when they were the Ind group and then since then it’s been a total shambles .
> ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!!
>
>
I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1129698091769245697