Keir Starmer seems to be emboldened . After getting his own way in the talks he’s now coming out with his second vote comments .
Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large .
If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .
> @rottenborough said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1129680862503723008 > > > > > > I like Rachel Johnson but she really should have stuck with the Lib Dems . I think Change UK became over confident when they were the Ind group and then since then it’s been a total shambles . > > The 'Never Boris' Tory MPs like Greening will head to the LibDems I think, after these EU elections have shown the party has life in it after all. Change UK seem to think the LD brand was permanently 'Ratnered'. It seems not.
Funnily enough the Ratner jewellery chain survived, and is still the largest chain in the UK. It simply renamed and moved on from him. Maybe ChangeUK hoped to do that to/for the LDs, or maybe it's what the LDs will do for them!
> @nico67 said: > Keir Starmer seems to be emboldened . After getting his own way in the talks he’s now coming out with his second vote comments . > > Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large . > > If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .
Correct. Labour will move formally to a remain and reform position by the party conference at the latest, and probably before.
> @Quincel said: > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!! > > > > > > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
Keir Starmer seems to be emboldened . After getting his own way in the talks he’s now coming out with his second vote comments .
Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large .
If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .
He's safe as houses - Corbyn might well be a leaver at heart, but he's been leader long enough to not throw his support away over the subject.
Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
> @rottenborough said: > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again. > > There are 17 to date according to the Sun. > > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
On current rules/practice, yes.
Although there could well be some early trading...
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!! > > > > > > > > > > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls. > > But they ain't got no mo.....
I see the potential value, but it's like backing a fading horse to maybe squeeze out a place. It's not a great look.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!! > > > > > > > > > > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls. > > But they ain't got no mo.....
Really struggling to think of who is likely to vote for them and why. Guess some LD types who cant forgive actual LD party for the coalition and tuition fees. Anyone else? Is that over 5%?
Last night the Coalition in Australia was 10/1 and I confess I put a small amount of money on them. I'm amazed to switch on ABC News Australia to find they're doing much better than expected.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls. > > > > But they ain't got no mo..... > > Really struggling to think of who is likely to vote for them and why. Guess some LD types who cant forgive actual LD party for the coalition and tuition fees. Anyone else? Is that over 5%?
Really telling that there are no signs for ChUK in Totnes - Dr. Sarah Wollaston's seat. Labour/LibDem's/Greens all more attractive options here it seems.
> Keir Starmer seems to be emboldened . After getting his own way in the talks he’s now coming out with his second vote comments .
>
> Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large .
>
> If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .
Correct. Labour will move formally to a remain and reform position by the party conference at the latest, and probably before.
And if the EU is unwilling to reform? Would you/they advocate leaving then?
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again. > > > > There are 17 to date according to the Sun. > > > > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting? > > On current rules/practice, yes. > > Although there could well be some early trading...
Yep. Most of those 17 are just looking for Cabinet places. I doubt there'll be more than 4 or 5 rounds of voting.
Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
> @rottenborough said: > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again. > > There are 17 to date according to the Sun. > > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
And, as of now the rules are a vote on Tuesday then one on Thursday. We could be the best part of 2 months before it is whittled down to two. Don't waste this time indeed.
> @nico67 said: > Iain Martin is deluded . > > Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win . > > If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats . > > The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
If Hanretty's analysis was correct, 2/3rds of the Westminster seats voted leave.
There is no path to majority government through Remain whilst the SNP have that vote nailed down in Scotland.
> > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
> >
> > There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
> >
> > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
>
> On current rules/practice, yes.
>
> Although there could well be some early trading...
Yep. Most of those 17 are just looking for Cabinet places. I doubt there'll be more than 4 or 5 rounds of voting.
Let's hope so, or it will take weeks. Some of us have money tied up.
If Hanretty's analysis was correct, 2/3rds of the Westminster seats voted leave.
There is no path to majority government through Remain whilst the SNP have that vote nailed down in Scotland.
Firstly, this is no longer 2016 and the map of Leave and Remain now looks different. Secondly, if the Brexit Party threatens to take Labour seats in the North and Midlands, a vote for Labour becomes ineffective as a way to stop the Tories. Indeed stopping the Tories becomes irrelevant because their vote will be split to such an extent they will be in trouble in their safe seats. This clears the path for a party of Remain to come through the middle, and it looks like the Lib Dems are in a position where they could pull it off.
Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role?
> @MaxPB said: > A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm. > > This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
Morrison was actually the more moderate candidate to succeed Turnbull over Abbott's favourite Dutton as well as Turnbull's Finance Minister, he is basically an Aussie John Major visiting marginal seats around the clock until the end against the odds.
I still cannot believe that LDs or Change have not moved to revoke. 6 million petitioners to aim for - no way of being outflanked. Can point to the number of polls supporting remain, and disunity about what Leave means (apart from Leave obvs). Is there any reason why they wouldn’t move to that position?
Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role?
Indeed. And some people are claiming the FTPA means there wouldn't be a GE, except if neither BoZo nor Corbyn can command confidence, then there would be
> @AndyJS said: > Looks like all the polls were wrong in Australia.
The current projection is 74-66 with 6 Others but my uninformed guess is the Others split 5-1 against the Coalition so the "true" balance may be 75-71 with 5 seats too close to call.
With the Coalition ahead in 2 of the 5 it looks like Morrison will be returned with 76 with Labor on 69 and Others on 6.
> @HYUFD said: > > @MaxPB said: > > A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm. > > > > This Australia election feels a bit like 2015. > > Morrison was actually the more moderate candidate to succeed Turnbull over Abbott's favourite Dutton as well as Turnbull's Finance Minister, he is basically an Aussie John Major visiting marginal seats around the clock until the end against the odds. > > Abbott though has lost his seat tonight >
It looks like the urban areas have been okay for Labor but the suburban and rural areas have actually swung to the government.
> @MaxPB said: > A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm. > > This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
More 1992, Cameron's Tories were tied with Labour in most polls then while the Tories trailed in most polls in 1992 as the Coalition did before this Australian general election
Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role?
Indeed. And some people are claiming the FTPA means there wouldn't be a GE, except if neither BoZo nor Corbyn can command confidence, then there would be
Hold on.
Are we heading to even more bonkers scenario.
May remains PM while the leadership election is run. New leader is Boris.
> @HYUFD said: > > @MaxPB said: > > A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm. > > > > This Australia election feels a bit like 2015. > > More 1992, Cameron's Tories were tied with Labour in most polls then while the Tories trailed in most polls in 1992 as the Coalition did before this Australian general election
BBC were reporting that Labour were in the lead. Is that not right?
> @dixiedean said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again. > > > > There are 17 to date according to the Sun. > > > > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting? > > And, as of now the rules are a vote on Tuesday then one on Thursday. We could be the best part of 2 months before it is whittled down to two. > Don't waste this time indeed.
Will it be possible for even the most Anglophile EU leader to argue that we _haven't_ wasted the time?
> @rottenborough said: > Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role? > > Indeed. And some people are claiming the FTPA means there wouldn't be a GE, except if neither BoZo nor Corbyn can command confidence, then there would be > > Hold on. > > Are we heading to even more bonkers scenario. > > May remains PM while the leadership election is run. New leader is Boris. > > Boris cannot command a confidence vote. > > May remains as PM. Boris as leader. > > MV 5 is launched...
I expect there would quickly be a no confidence vote in Theresa May, at which point everything would move at high speed. The idea of Boris Johnson as Dr Strangelove, however, riding the no deal bomb against the will of the House of Commons is for the birds.
leaflet watch - This household in North Essex has had leaflets from every party...... except the tories.
Not particularly targeted though - one son who has never voted ever got one personally from Vince.
As did I - and I have previously told their canvessors that whilst I really appreciate their work on a local level there is no way on gods earth I would vote for them in any European election.
> @kle4 said: > Australian Twitter users are going into meltdown over the election result. > > > > https://twitter.com/search?q=ausvotes > > I've seen much more hysterical reaction to defeat in fairness.
> @Nemtynakht said: > I still cannot believe that LDs or Change have not moved to revoke. 6 million petitioners to aim for - no way of being outflanked. Can point to the number of polls supporting remain, and disunity about what Leave means (apart from Leave obvs). Is there any reason why they wouldn’t move to that position?
A lot of Remainers wouldn’t support that position . Unless it came to a no deal where more might get behind it . If Change UK had revoke as a Labour Remainer I’d still be supporting the Lib Dems position . I’m happy to give a 100% support to another vote but am very wary of revoke unless it was supported by a second vote .
Just had my third leaflet - this one from The Brexit Party and addressed to me personally!
So far that's:
Labour
(NO) Chnage UK
The Brexit Party
Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!
I've had Labour and the Brexit Party. Usual generic pack of lies from both. No effort or thought put in. Unfortunately political parties don't seem to care about my postcode.
ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia
This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them?
> @nico67 said: > Iain Martin is deluded . > > Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win . > > If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats . > > The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
400 seats voted Leave, 200 seats voted Remain.
As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
> @GIN1138 said: > Just had my third leaflet - this one from The Brexit Party and addressed to me personally! > > So far that's: > > Labour > (NO) Chnage UK > The Brexit Party > > Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!
----------------------
Just the Brexit party and the Greens here. This is a high postal vote area (lots of elderly voters) and I should think we are probably just past peak postal vote time so any new leaflets are likely to be wasted.
> > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > Not yet, anyway.
>
>
>
> It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
>
>
> There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
"Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
> @ydoethur said: > ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia > > This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them?
A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation
> @Cyclefree said: > What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are? > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Not yet, anyway. > > > > > > > > > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > > > > > > > > > There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints. > > > > > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
> @HYUFD said: > > @nico67 said: > > Iain Martin is deluded . > > > > Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win . > > > > If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats . > > > > The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland . > > 400 seats voted Leave, 200 seats voted Remain. > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
The current alliance in Australia is not the best match for the Tories so that doesn’t apply . The 400 seats to 200 covers quite a few that were marginal . The Tories cannot win without Scottish and city/larger towns MPs.
> > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > Not yet, anyway.
>
>
>
> It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
>
>
> There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
"Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
Welcome to leaverworld where everything is fine so long as the pensions and state benefits keep flowing.
Edit, I see the likely voting pattens wholly reflect leaverworld as the entitled elderly. The ones who expect the young to pay for everything and get nothing because “I’ve paid my taxes all my life...”.
- Electoral reform so we get parties more aligned with what people think - An English parliament (perhaps in Loughborough?) and as a minimum a much looser UK - Serious investment in infrastructure
> @nico67 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > Iain Martin is deluded . > > > > > > Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win . > > > > > > If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats . > > > > > > The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland . > > > > 400 seats voted Leave, 200 seats voted Remain. > > > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win > > The current alliance in Australia is not the best match for the Tories so that doesn’t apply . The 400 seats to 200 covers quite a few that were marginal . The Tories cannot win without Scottish and city/larger towns MPs. > > > >
Rubbish, the ONLY reason Labour is ahead in current polls is because of the Brexit Party. Add the Brexit Party and Tory votes together and you get significantly more than the Corbyn Labour vote.
Plenty of Australian marginal seats were suburban not rural and it looks like the Coalition has won a majority of those and small towns.
Neither the Coalition nor the Tories need a majority of inner city seats to win
As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
The trouble is that campaigning for a no deal Brexit is not at all conservative.
> @matt said: > What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are? > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Not yet, anyway. > > > > > > > > > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > > > > > > > > > There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints. > > > > > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with. > > Welcome to leaverworld where everything is fine so long as the pensions and state benefits keep flowing. > > Edit, I see the likely voting pattens wholly reflect leaverworld as the entitled elderly. The ones who expect the young to pay for everything and get nothing because “I’ve paid my taxes all my life...”.
It’s entirely in keeping that they should be led by a man who sounds off about immigrants draining resources who himself has a sugar daddy.
> @AndyJS said: > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago. > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
> @williamglenn said: > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win > > The trouble is that campaigning for a no deal Brexit is not at all conservative. It is more conservative than going full Heathite and trying to revoke Brexit altogether.
Though the best solution for the Tories remains to get the Withdrawal Agreement through
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago. > > > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520 > > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
> @AndyJS said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago. > > > > > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520 > > > > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor? > > Yep.
Somebody is going to be having an awkward conversation on Monday.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago. > > > > > > > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520 > > > > > > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor? > > > > Yep. > > Somebody is going to be having an awkward conversation on Monday.
Reminds me of the person who bet hundreds of thousands of pounds on Remain.
> @HYUFD said: > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly.
> @HYUFD said: > Coalition now up to 74, Labor 65, Greens 1, Others 5. > > Anthony Green says the Coalition will form the next government but not yet clear if a minority or majority Morrison government. > > Green says Labor were slaughtered in Queensland with a 4% swing to the Coalition despite a 2% swing to Labor in Victoria >
The polls were predicting a 6% swing to Labor in Queensland until a few days ago.
> > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
> "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
>
>
>
> But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
>
> You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
>
> I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
> @AndyJS said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago. > > > > > > > > > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520 > > > > > > > > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor? > > > > > > Yep. > > > > Somebody is going to be having an awkward conversation on Monday. > > Reminds me of the person who bet hundreds of thousands of pounds on Remain. __________________________________
Crispin Odey gambled - er no, 'invested' - £ millions or more on the UK never leaving the EU.
Comments
Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large .
If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1129680862503723008
>
>
>
>
>
> I like Rachel Johnson but she really should have stuck with the Lib Dems . I think Change UK became over confident when they were the Ind group and then since then it’s been a total shambles .
>
> The 'Never Boris' Tory MPs like Greening will head to the LibDems I think, after these EU elections have shown the party has life in it after all. Change UK seem to think the LD brand was permanently 'Ratnered'. It seems not.
Funnily enough the Ratner jewellery chain survived, and is still the largest chain in the UK. It simply renamed and moved on from him. Maybe ChangeUK hoped to do that to/for the LDs, or maybe it's what the LDs will do for them!
> Keir Starmer seems to be emboldened . After getting his own way in the talks he’s now coming out with his second vote comments .
>
> Corbyn knows that Starmer can say what he likes , he wouldn’t dare sack him because he’s the poster boy for the Remainers who hugely outnumber the rest in the membership , MPs and voters at large .
>
> If Starmer was to resign the Labour Party will implode .
Correct. Labour will move formally to a remain and reform position by the party conference at the latest, and probably before.
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!!
> >
> >
>
> I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
But they ain't got no mo.....
There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
> Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
>
> There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
>
> Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
On current rules/practice, yes.
Although there could well be some early trading...
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!!
> > >
> > >
> >
> > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
>
> But they ain't got no mo.....
I see the potential value, but it's like backing a fading horse to maybe squeeze out a place. It's not a great look.
https://twitter.com/themiltonjones/status/1129427260124147712
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!!
> > >
> > >
> >
> > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
>
> But they ain't got no mo.....
Really struggling to think of who is likely to vote for them and why. Guess some LD types who cant forgive actual LD party for the coalition and tuition fees. Anyone else? Is that over 5%?
> Interesting twitter debate on what will happen under Boris or other Brexiteer:
>
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1129693924820430848
If they try the snap election under Boris strategy it will end very badly for them, I think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVsKhaJuw8M
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > ChUK 1/4 to get <5%!!!
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > I am actually starting to think 5-10% is a bit of value. Polling this is tough, and they are on 5-6% in plenty of recent polls.
> >
> > But they ain't got no mo.....
>
> Really struggling to think of who is likely to vote for them and why. Guess some LD types who cant forgive actual LD party for the coalition and tuition fees. Anyone else? Is that over 5%?
Really telling that there are no signs for ChUK in Totnes - Dr. Sarah Wollaston's seat. Labour/LibDem's/Greens all more attractive options here it seems.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
> >
> > There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
> >
> > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
>
> On current rules/practice, yes.
>
> Although there could well be some early trading...
Yep. Most of those 17 are just looking for Cabinet places. I doubt there'll be more than 4 or 5 rounds of voting.
Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
> Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
>
> There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
>
> Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
And, as of now the rules are a vote on Tuesday then one on Thursday. We could be the best part of 2 months before it is whittled down to two.
Don't waste this time indeed.
This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
> Iain Martin is deluded .
>
> Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
>
> If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
>
> The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
If Hanretty's analysis was correct, 2/3rds of the Westminster seats voted leave.
There is no path to majority government through Remain whilst the SNP have that vote nailed down in Scotland.
> Looks like all the polls were wrong in Australia.
The polls were right for NSW/Vic.
But, it doesn't look as though the pollsters measured Tas/Qld right.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Interesting twitter debate on what will happen under Boris or other Brexiteer:
> >
>
> https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1129693924820430848
>
> If they try the snap election under Boris strategy it will end very badly for them, I think.
The Tory death wish gives every impression of being even stronger than the Labour one.
> And if the EU is unwilling to reform? Would you/they advocate leaving then?
>
> It's the UK that needs reform.
LOL - beyond parody
Currently Coalition 74 Labor 66 Others 5
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-17/live-coverage-federal-election-2019-scott-morrison-bill-shorten/11118632
> And if the EU is unwilling to reform? Would you/they advocate leaving then?
>
> It's the UK that needs reform.
I'll bite. In what way?
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776
> Genius.
>
> https://twitter.com/themiltonjones/status/1129427260124147712
LMAO - and about as much presence and control too
> 10 to 1. Those were the odds on the Australian government winning the election last night. Amazing.
Shades of 1992 here, Shorten like Kinnock and most of the polls were certain he would become PM on his second attempt, the voters decided otherwise
"Labor in box seat for victory as Liberal vote falls, exit poll shows"
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-in-box-seat-for-victory-as-liberal-vote-falls-exit-poll-shows-20190518-p51ord.html
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Interesting twitter debate on what will happen under Boris or other Brexiteer:
> >
>
> https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1129693924820430848
>
> If they try the snap election under Boris strategy it will end very badly for them, I think.
Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role?
> A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm.
>
> This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
Morrison was actually the more moderate candidate to succeed Turnbull over Abbott's favourite Dutton as well as Turnbull's Finance Minister, he is basically an Aussie John Major visiting marginal seats around the clock until the end against the odds.
Abbott though has lost his seat tonight
https://twitter.com/search?q=ausvotes
> Looks like all the polls were wrong in Australia.
The current projection is 74-66 with 6 Others but my uninformed guess is the Others split 5-1 against the Coalition so the "true" balance may be 75-71 with 5 seats too close to call.
With the Coalition ahead in 2 of the 5 it looks like Morrison will be returned with 76 with Labor on 69 and Others on 6.
> > @MaxPB said:
> > A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm.
> >
> > This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
>
> Morrison was actually the more moderate candidate to succeed Turnbull over Abbott's favourite Dutton as well as Turnbull's Finance Minister, he is basically an Aussie John Major visiting marginal seats around the clock until the end against the odds.
>
> Abbott though has lost his seat tonight
>
It looks like the urban areas have been okay for Labor but the suburban and rural areas have actually swung to the government.
> A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm.
>
> This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
More 1992, Cameron's Tories were tied with Labour in most polls then while the Tories trailed in most polls in 1992 as the Coalition did before this Australian general election
Are we heading to even more bonkers scenario.
May remains PM while the leadership election is run. New leader is Boris.
Boris cannot command a confidence vote.
May remains as PM. Boris as leader.
MV 5 is launched...
> > @MaxPB said:
> > A right winger replaces a moderate and wins. Hmm.
> >
> > This Australia election feels a bit like 2015.
>
> More 1992, Cameron's Tories were tied with Labour in most polls then while the Tories trailed in most polls in 1992 as the Coalition did before this Australian general election
BBC were reporting that Labour were in the lead. Is that not right?
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Can someone enlighten us on the Tory leadership rules. Iirc, the MPs vote on the list of candidates, and the bottom one is eliminated and the MPs vote again.
> >
> > There are 17 to date according to the Sun.
> >
> > Are we really looking at 15 rounds of voting?
>
> And, as of now the rules are a vote on Tuesday then one on Thursday. We could be the best part of 2 months before it is whittled down to two.
> Don't waste this time indeed.
Will it be possible for even the most Anglophile EU leader to argue that we _haven't_ wasted the time?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/australian-elections-labor-tipped-to-win-election-and-replace-conservative-government-as-votes-are-a4145491.html
> Leader Boris Johnson would probably not get to be Prime Minister. It would be apparent before he tried that he did not command the confidence of the House, so why would he be offered the role?
>
> Indeed. And some people are claiming the FTPA means there wouldn't be a GE, except if neither BoZo nor Corbyn can command confidence, then there would be
>
> Hold on.
>
> Are we heading to even more bonkers scenario.
>
> May remains PM while the leadership election is run. New leader is Boris.
>
> Boris cannot command a confidence vote.
>
> May remains as PM. Boris as leader.
>
> MV 5 is launched...
I expect there would quickly be a no confidence vote in Theresa May, at which point everything would move at high speed. The idea of Boris Johnson as Dr Strangelove, however, riding the no deal bomb against the will of the House of Commons is for the birds.
Not particularly targeted though - one son who has never voted ever got one personally from Vince.
As did I - and I have previously told their canvessors that whilst I really appreciate their work on a local level there is no way on gods earth I would vote for them in any European election.
Perhaps they put me down as a "maybe" :-)
> Australian Twitter users are going into meltdown over the election result.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/search?q=ausvotes
>
> I've seen much more hysterical reaction to defeat in fairness.
You mean certain remainers on here don't you :-)
So far that's:
Labour
(NO) Chnage UK
The Brexit Party
Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!
> I still cannot believe that LDs or Change have not moved to revoke. 6 million petitioners to aim for - no way of being outflanked. Can point to the number of polls supporting remain, and disunity about what Leave means (apart from Leave obvs). Is there any reason why they wouldn’t move to that position?
A lot of Remainers wouldn’t support that position . Unless it came to a no deal where more might get behind it . If Change UK had revoke as a Labour Remainer I’d still be supporting the Lib Dems position . I’m happy to give a 100% support to another vote but am very wary of revoke unless it was supported by a second vote .
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Interesting twitter debate on what will happen under Boris or other Brexiteer:
> >
>
> https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1129693924820430848
>
> If they try the snap election under Boris strategy it will end very badly for them, I think.
Bring It On. Make. Our. Day.
"Opinion polls suggest the conservative Liberal Party-led coalition will lose its bid for a third three-year term."
https://news.sky.com/story/polling-starts-to-close-in-australian-election-11722764
> Iain Martin is deluded .
>
> Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
>
> If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
>
> The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
400 seats voted Leave, 200 seats voted Remain.
As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
> Just had my third leaflet - this one from The Brexit Party and addressed to me personally!
>
> So far that's:
>
> Labour
> (NO) Chnage UK
> The Brexit Party
>
> Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!
----------------------
Just the Brexit party and the Greens here. This is a high postal vote area (lots of elderly voters) and I should think we are probably just past peak postal vote time so any new leaflets are likely to be wasted.
Oh boy......
But - and who would have thought this, eh? - turns out they were talking horseshit.
https://youtu.be/wxlhyX-4qKI
> ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia
>
> This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them?
A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation
Aviation Insurers will not like hearing that.
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/5cdbbeed23eec6001c793214
https://www.abc.net.au/news/newschannel/
> What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
>
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > > @thecommissioner said:
>
> >
>
> > > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Not yet, anyway.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
>
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
>
>
>
> "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
>
>
>
> But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
>
> You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
>
> I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Iain Martin is deluded .
> >
> > Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
> >
> > If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
> >
> > The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
>
> 400 seats voted Leave, 200 seats voted Remain.
>
> As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
The current alliance in Australia is not the best match for the Tories so that doesn’t apply . The 400 seats to 200 covers quite a few that were marginal . The Tories cannot win without Scottish and city/larger towns MPs.
Edit, I see the likely voting pattens wholly reflect leaverworld as the entitled elderly. The ones who expect the young to pay for everything and get nothing because “I’ve paid my taxes all my life...”.
> "This is a headline from just a few hours ago:
>
> "Labor in box seat for victory as Liberal vote falls, exit poll shows"
>
> https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-in-box-seat-for-victory-as-liberal-vote-falls-exit-poll-shows-20190518-p51ord.html
Reminds me of the infamous 'Dewey beats Truman' headlines in 1948
- Electoral reform so we get parties more aligned with what people think
- An English parliament (perhaps in Loughborough?) and as a minimum a much looser UK
- Serious investment in infrastructure
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > Iain Martin is deluded .
> > >
> > > Does he seriously think by replacing more moderate Tories in more marginal seats with hard Brexiters that the Tories can win .
> > >
> > > If they go full on nutjob hard Brexit they’re toast . Several Tories could defect to the Lib Dems beforehand and still have a chance to retain their seats .
> > >
> > > The Tories will be finished in cities and bigger towns and there’s simply not enough rural ones to get a majority . They’ll also likely to be wiped out in Scotland .
> >
> > 400 seats voted Leave, 200 seats voted Remain.
> >
> > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
>
> The current alliance in Australia is not the best match for the Tories so that doesn’t apply . The 400 seats to 200 covers quite a few that were marginal . The Tories cannot win without Scottish and city/larger towns MPs.
>
>
>
>
Rubbish, the ONLY reason Labour is ahead in current polls is because of the Brexit Party. Add the Brexit Party and Tory votes together and you get significantly more than the Corbyn Labour vote.
Plenty of Australian marginal seats were suburban not rural and it looks like the Coalition has won a majority of those and small towns.
Neither the Coalition nor the Tories need a majority of inner city seats to win
https://twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
> What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
>
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > > @thecommissioner said:
>
> >
>
> > > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Not yet, anyway.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
>
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
>
>
>
> "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
>
>
>
> But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
>
> You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
>
> I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
>
> Welcome to leaverworld where everything is fine so long as the pensions and state benefits keep flowing.
>
> Edit, I see the likely voting pattens wholly reflect leaverworld as the entitled elderly. The ones who expect the young to pay for everything and get nothing because “I’ve paid my taxes all my life...”.
It’s entirely in keeping that they should be led by a man who sounds off about immigrants draining resources who himself has a sugar daddy.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1129712280030072832?s=20
> Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
>
> twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
> As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
>
> The trouble is that campaigning for a no deal Brexit is not at all conservative.
It is more conservative than going full Heathite and trying to revoke Brexit altogether.
Though the best solution for the Tories remains to get the Withdrawal Agreement through
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
> >
> > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
>
> Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
Yep.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
> > >
> > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
> >
> > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
>
> Yep.
Somebody is going to be having an awkward conversation on Monday.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
> > > >
> > > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
> > >
> > > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
> >
> > Yep.
>
> Somebody is going to be having an awkward conversation on Monday.
Reminds me of the person who bet hundreds of thousands of pounds on Remain.
Anthony Green says the Coalition will form the next government but not yet clear if a minority or majority Morrison government.
Green says Labor were slaughtered in Queensland with a 4% swing to the Coalition despite a 2% swing to Labor in Victoria
> > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly.
> Coalition now up to 74, Labor 65, Greens 1, Others 5.
>
> Anthony Green says the Coalition will form the next government but not yet clear if a minority or majority Morrison government.
>
> Green says Labor were slaughtered in Queensland with a 4% swing to the Coalition despite a 2% swing to Labor in Victoria
>
The polls were predicting a 6% swing to Labor in Queensland until a few days ago.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
> > > > >
> > > > > twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1129710783217131520
> > > >
> > > > Are they the bookies that took the massive bet on Labor?
> > >
> > > Yep.
> >
> > Somebody is going to be having an awkward conversation on Monday.
>
> Reminds me of the person who bet hundreds of thousands of pounds on Remain.
__________________________________
Crispin Odey gambled - er no, 'invested' - £ millions or more on the UK never leaving the EU.
It remains to be seen if that was a smart bet.
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20
This is the same poll that has the Lib Dems on only 12% for the European elections.
https://www.survation.com/daily-mail-18-05-19-final-tables/
https://twitter.com/theweeklytv/status/1128624880499355648?s=21
https://www.abc.net.au/news/newschannel/