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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TMay finally decides to quit and the race for her successor

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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,137
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > @isam The direct message they've sent me contradicts their own market rules.

    I don't think it does. They've said they believe she will remain technically leader. That seems likely.

    Yes with Major he resigned and vacated the post in 1995. If that were to be repeated in June then June is clearly the winner.

    But the last 4 times a Tory leader voluntarily resigned they remained technically leader until their successor was elected.

    Cameron "resigned" on 24 June 2016 but remained technically leader until May was elected.

    Howard, Hague and Major (1997) all resigned but remained technically leader until their successor was elected.

    The exception was Major in 1995 but then he only vacated the leadership with immediate effect in order to recontest it himself. May isn't doing that.

    The question then is whether May will follow the precedence of the last 4 contested leadership contests and remains technically Leader even after resigning until her successor is elected ... or whether she follows 1995 Major precedence. Given she isn't stepping aside immediately and given she isn't contesting the leadership herself as Major did in 1995 it seems there is no reason why she can't remain technically leader until her successor is elected.

    Betfair are right then. Sorry.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > The places where turnout has failed to rise or has dropped slightly would appear to be mostly very strong Leave areas like Harlow and South Holland. Whether that will prove to be important is difficult to predict.
    >
    > Could just mean that minority Remainers there have given up the will to live/fight/vote....

    That could be the explanation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Have Boris supporters yet been termed "Boristas"? If not, I'm having it!
    >
    > The Insane Clown Posse...

    For Boris, it's surely Pussy?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 479
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
    > >
    > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
    >
    > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.

    I would not call Farage a model democrat. In fact his connections with such as Bannon and Putin are certainly authoritarian, as is the structure of TBP. Not a militarist, but prepared to threaten violence and contemptuous of differing opinions.

    If he is not a classical 1930s Fascist, perhaps he has sufficient in common with them for us to label him neo-Fascist, I think.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,972
    Sandpit said:


    Doesn't seem to rule out transferable votes with multiple candidates?

    Arguably not. But it's always been interpreted previously as a choice of two, and I think it would be very awkward to try to claim a different interpretation.
    Richard, what’s your view on exactly when TM ceases to be leader of the party?
    See my posts upthread. I think her statement was ambiguous, but I don't the fact will be. Probably she'll stay as leader until her successor is appointed, but it will be clear at the time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007
    > @Byronic said:
    >
    > FFS. Farage is many unpleasant things, but he's not a fascist. He's a populist, a nationalist, a bit of a demagogue, but he's not going to cancel democracy, put the army on the streets, take personal control of the courts, shoot all dissenters, jail all opponents, and inculcate a nationwide worship of violence, machismo and state power.
    ------

    Is he going to carry out a No Deal Brexit and are you confident that it could be done without major coercive force from the state?
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > That is reasonable but I would suggest there are also some minimum standards of shitty behaviour and belief that one has to reach to be considered fascist and those don't apply to Farage and TBP. They do apply to the EDL as the did to the BNP and NF. I would also suggest they now apply to UKIP.

    100% correct.
    The Brexit Nigel Party should be considered on the watchlist.
    Ukip weren't fascist 5 years ago but are now. It's very easy to imagine the same thing happening to Farage's new outfit in a way that you couldn't really imagine of the Tories.

    If in doubt, ask what checks and balances there are in place to prevent it. In the case of TBP, the answer is basically none. Other than Nigel's conscience, should there be such a thing.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...
    >
    >

    Even in 1983 Labour stayed ahead of the Alliance in Islington by around 7,000 votes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,352
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > The places where turnout has failed to rise or has dropped slightly would appear to be mostly very strong Leave areas like Harlow and South Holland. Whether that will prove to be important is difficult to predict.
    >
    > Could just mean that minority Remainers there have given up the will to live/fight/vote....

    Grasping at straws...

    Yellow peril resurgent thanks to Tory uselessness methinks.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @CarlottaVance said:
    > >
    >
    > It probably helps him, but no assumptions.
    >
    > Imagine Boris v Hunt
    > Or Boris v Raab v Hunt (single round of voting).
    >
    > Which works better?

    I think the argument for more than two is because Boris v Raab v Hunt is better for Boris than Raab v Hunt.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,581

    Sandpit said:


    Doesn't seem to rule out transferable votes with multiple candidates?

    Arguably not. But it's always been interpreted previously as a choice of two, and I think it would be very awkward to try to claim a different interpretation.
    Richard, what’s your view on exactly when TM ceases to be leader of the party?
    See my posts upthread. I think her statement was ambiguous, but I don't the fact will be. Probably she'll stay as leader until her successor is appointed, but it will be clear at the time.
    Thanks.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    “Her successor will have exactly the same choice: face up to the lie, or face failure.”

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,470
    > @valleyboy said:
    > Voter turnout in Wales 37% only 31% last time.
    > Winners Brexit Party Plaid. Greens in that order.
    > Losers Labour, Tories, UKIP

    That seems to be driven mostly by increases in Remain areas .
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    > >
    > > FFS. Farage is many unpleasant things, but he's not a fascist. He's a populist, a nationalist, a bit of a demagogue, but he's not going to cancel democracy, put the army on the streets, take personal control of the courts, shoot all dissenters, jail all opponents, and inculcate a nationwide worship of violence, machismo and state power.
    > ------
    >
    > Is he going to carry out a No Deal Brexit and are you confident that it could be done without major coercive force from the state? <

    +++++

    That's a much more nuanced and interesting question. However, I doubt we will discover the answer. The Tories will have to deliver Brexit (or not), Farage won't have a direct say.

    FWIW I suspect BXP might do less well than they hoped, looking at these turnout figures. They might slip under 30%, as the LDs prosper.

    IF this happens it will alter the argument somewhat. The impetus towards No Deal might fade.

    We shall see on Sunday.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,022
    edited May 2019
    [Deleted for being late to the party and duplicating someone else's earlier post]
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,916
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @KentRising said:
    > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister.
    > > >
    > > > The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
    > >
    > > Moreover she had little control over the length of the campaign because of the FTPA.
    >
    > I think the election campaign was about 2 weeks longer than it needed to be, even under the new rules. The final 2 weeks is when it started to go badly wrong for her.

    But 5 weeks from Dissolution to Polling Day is now the absolute minimum. In addition, there were 2 Bank Holidays to be added to that period and time had to be found for the Commons to vote for an early election. She could also not really assume that Corbyn would co-operate with her plans in the way that he did. Many - including myself- thought he would have been wiser to force May down the No Confidence in her own Government route - which effectively would have delayed Dissolution for 2 weeks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    @Richard_Nabavi You're right I think - What a disastrous morning's trading for me ! Redded out now anyway.

    Bloody May
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,470
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...
    >
    >

    Lmao! If Labour can’t beat the Lib Dems in Corbyns own seat then London is going to be a complete disaster for them .

    Without that Survation poll showing the Lib Dems on just 12% and Labour on 23% UK wide I’d be sure it’s going to be a disaster for Labour but how on earth can a poll done the night before be so wrong .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    Is there any way the contest can be strung out till October :p ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,623
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Theresa May wore plenty of trousers. Indeed most of her outfits.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,955
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Lmao! If Labour can’t beat the Lib Dems in Corbyns own seat then London is going to be a complete disaster for them .
    >
    > Without that Survation poll showing the Lib Dems on just 12% and Labour on 23% UK wide I’d be sure it’s going to be a disaster for Labour but how on earth can a poll done the night before be so wrong .

    Anyone know what the LDs are basing this on?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,061
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Hunt looks like Portillo 2001 to me, squeezed by left and right and not the candidate of Remainers or Leavers he was initial frontrunner but may not even reach the final two now and cannot see him winning the membership vote even if he does
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,061
    edited May 2019
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Lmao! If Labour can’t beat the Lib Dems in Corbyns own seat then London is going to be a complete disaster for them .
    >
    > Without that Survation poll showing the Lib Dems on just 12% and Labour on 23% UK wide I’d be sure it’s going to be a disaster for Labour but how on earth can a poll done the night before be so wrong .

    It was on a higher turnout, many Labour voters have not turned out, LDs have and Remainers have switched to the LDs too.

    Yougov had the LDs ahead of Labour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,061
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @valleyboy said:
    > > Voter turnout in Wales 37% only 31% last time.
    > > Winners Brexit Party Plaid. Greens in that order.
    > > Losers Labour, Tories, UKIP
    >
    > That seems to be driven mostly by increases in Remain areas .

    Leave voting Carmathemshire had a higher turnout than Remain voting Cardiff
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,470
    A Brexiter must be new PM.

    No more whining from the ERG death cult that if only a true believer was in charge .
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933
    Scott_P said:
    After the embaressment of the Lib Dems predicting they had beaten Salmond as the returning officer took the stage and Salmond had a whaking great majority you'd think they'd adjust the expectation management.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    When is Chris Grayling going to announce?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,061
    > @Dura_Ace said:
    > So when The Boris Project goes down in flames as it inevitably must Corbyn will have seen off three tory PMs. Amazing.

    No, the Corbyn project will go down in flames when Boris beats him
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,129
    > @Streeter said:
    > “Her successor will have exactly the same choice: face up to the lie, or face failure.”
    >
    >

    Yes, this isn't going to be the panacea that some seem to think.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,916
    > @Quincel said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > Lmao! If Labour can’t beat the Lib Dems in Corbyns own seat then London is going to be a complete disaster for them .
    > >
    > > Without that Survation poll showing the Lib Dems on just 12% and Labour on 23% UK wide I’d be sure it’s going to be a disaster for Labour but how on earth can a poll done the night before be so wrong .
    >
    > Anyone know what the LDs are basing this on?

    Possibly based on observation at the verification stage of the count today.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited May 2019
    > @nico67 said:
    > A Brexiter must be new PM.
    >
    > No more whining from the ERG death cult that if only a true believer was in charge .<

    ++++

    Yes. Absolutely. Brexiteers have to take control of Brexit, and own it, for good or bad, otherwise we might develop some appalling stab-in-the-back myth like Weimar Germany.

    If Brexit faills, then it will be the Brexiteers' fault, and they won't be able to whine about saboteurs. If it succeeds, well, good for them, and thank God we somehow dodged a terrible bullet.

    That means we can rule out all Remainers (like Hunt or Javid). So it will be Gove, Johnson, Raab, or - at a stretch - Mordaunt (she should be a leading candidate, in my mind, but I doubt the Tories will pick two women in a row).
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    estimated declaration times for Sunday night

    East Midlands – 2330 Sunday (2320 in 2014)
    Eastern – 2330 Sunday (2230 in 2014)
    London – 0200 Monday (0306 in 2014)
    North East – 2230 Sunday (2215 in 2014)
    North West – 0030 Monday (0024 in 2014)
    Scotland – 1100 Monday (1235 in 2014). NB Seats allocation for Scotland will be known from overnight local counts but the Western Isles count taking place in the day delays the final declaration.
    Wales – 0001 Monday (2338 Sunday in 2014)
    South East – 0100 Monday (0046 in 2014)
    South West – 2300 Sunday (2338 in 2014)
    West Midlands – 0001 Monday (0030 in 2014)
    Yorkshire & The Humber – 2300 Sunday (2328 in 2014)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,129
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Err, the EU have said no to renegotiation.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    Done some number crunching on the turnout figures published so far and result is interesting. In LA areas where leave was >50% the turnout is up on average by 0.13%. But in LA areas where remain was >50% the turnout is up on average by 4.86%. No London figures in yet so caution necessary but this looks positive for remain parties.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,972
    nico67 said:

    A Brexiter must be new PM.


    No more whining from the ERG death cult that if only a true believer was in charge .

    I'm afraid that's not what will happen. The new 'true believer' PM will turn out, in the ERG mythology, not really to have been a true believer after all.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,442
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @FF43 said:
    > > > @ah009 said:
    > >
    > > > Farage might not be a fascist. He's certainly friends with some. That leads one to think his views overlap with theirs to some extent.
    > > > That's too close for my liking. I think it's fair to call him a fascist sympathiser. And I don't want the man anywhere near any levers of power.
    > >
    > > ___________________
    > >
    > > It's an interesting question. I started out thinking it was ridiculous to think of Farage as a fascist, but the more I get to know about the Brexit Party, the more it becomes clear it is a fascist party - in some respects only.
    > >
    > > The messaging of betrayal, that only the Party represents the nation's values against corrupt and traitorous elites, that only the despotic Leader can sort things out. These are taken from the 1930s fascist party playbook. As are the populist rallies.
    > >
    > > The Brexit Party has however none of the militarism of the 1930s fascist parties, has no interest in going to war, is opposed to violence. The racism is covert rather than overt.
    > >
    > > It may be more accurate to describe the Brexit Party as proto-fascist or neo-fascist.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > While I am no fan of the BXP or of Farage, I would not describe him as Fascist. Populist, demagogue, and autocratic, but there is more to Fascism than that. I think the style of the meetings owes more to Trumpism, and in turn that is borrowed from the revivalist Evangelical style. Indeed the pioneer of that revivalist rally campaign style in the UK is Jeremy Corbyn.
    >
    > People like to believe, and are thirsty for hope. They are easy meat for hucksters and charlatans whether political or religious, who promise a simple solution to complex issues.

    Note that I didn't say Farage was a 1930s style fascist. I admit that it is an opinion, but it is an opinion based on evidence, that he is what you could call a Modern Fascist. It is more subtle than 1930s type fascism. It is only non-militaristic and not overtly racist because they believe they will not get away with it. Plenty of references to war and "khaki" by Farage though, and it was interesting that a picture of him was released in military uniform (laughably CCF I think). He must have released that himself. I have no doubt that Farage would adopt all the ostentatious paraphernalia of fascism if he could manage it.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,644
    So do we know yet if TM is actually going to hand the keys to No. 10 back to Brenda on June 7th or will she be staying on as caretaker until Borisher successor is elected?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    No one:

    Not a single soul:



    LibDems: We beat Labour in Corbyns back yard.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,671
    Just catching up with PL. Mark Francois is such a vile specimen he makes me retch.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @RobD said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > Err, the EU have said no to renegotiation. <

    ++++

    That's not quite true. It depends what Boris might want to renegotiate.

    e.g. as he is much more liberal than T May on immigration (thank God) I suspect he might just bend on Freedom of Movement, which opens up a host of new options. The EU would be happy to renegotiate if that is the case.

    T May fell because of her own red lines, she authored her downfall. Boris (if he wins) needs to dump all red lines, and say he's starting from scratch.

    He'll have to make new friends, and pacify old enemies, very quickly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,129
    edited May 2019
    > @rpjs said:
    > So do we know yet if TM is actually going to hand the keys to No. 10 back to Brenda on June 7th or will she be staying on as caretaker until Borisher successor is elected?

    "Mrs May said that the process of electing her successor would begin the week after she finally stepped down as Conservative leader.

    She said she had informed the Queen that she would continue to serve as Prime Minister until that process was complete."
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,442
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Just catching up with PL. Mark Francois is such a vile specimen he makes me retch.

    He has a backpfeifengesicht of epic proportions
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    I'm not a fan of Boris Johnson, but I don't think he'd have any difficulty defeating Jeremy Corbyn at a general election. Just my opinion at the present time.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,024
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > >
    > >
    > > Err, the EU have said no to renegotiation. <
    >
    > ++++
    >
    > That's not quite true. It depends what Boris might want to renegotiate.
    >
    > e.g. as he is much more liberal than T May on immigration (thank God) I suspect he might just bend on Freedom of Movement, which opens up a host of new options. The EU would be happy to renegotiate if that is the case.
    >
    > T May fell because of her own red lines, she authored her downfall. Boris (if he wins) needs to dump all red lines, and say he's starting from scratch.
    >
    > He'll have to make new friends, and pacify old enemies, very quickly.

    That means another long extension.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,671

    He has a backpfeifengesicht of epic proportions

    We should all resist the temptation to descend to such violent inclinations.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,129
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Was there any doubt? I mean the chair could die during the proceeding, for example.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,442
    > @AndyJS said:
    > I'm not a fan of Boris Johnson, but I don't think he'd have any difficulty defeating Jeremy Corbyn at a general election. Just my opinion at the present time.

    Clever buffoon versus thick-as-a-plank buffoon. It is an awful choice, but I think you might be right
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > A Brexiter must be new PM.
    >
    >
    > No more whining from the ERG death cult that if only a true believer was in charge .
    >
    > I'm afraid that's not what will happen. The new 'true believer' PM will turn out, in the ERG mythology, not really to have been a true believer after all.

    Boris ? He doesn't believe in anything !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007
    > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > Hunt looks like Portillo 2001 to me

    A man with "experiences"?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2019
    deleted seen previous tweet...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,442
    > @RobD said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > Was there any doubt? I mean the chair could die during the proceeding, for example.

    I thought a chair was an inanimate object, but then again we are talking about Sir Graham Brady
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Was there any doubt? I mean the chair could die during the proceeding, for example.

    No.

    I think this is merely a reminder to the ERG that a backstop is both necessary, and helpful...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,442
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > > A Brexiter must be new PM.
    > >
    > >
    > > No more whining from the ERG death cult that if only a true believer was in charge .
    > >
    > > I'm afraid that's not what will happen. The new 'true believer' PM will turn out, in the ERG mythology, not really to have been a true believer after all.
    >
    > Boris ? He doesn't believe in anything !

    He believes in Boris. Good job someone does.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,061
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Could end up a Boris v Steve Baker final two at this rate with Boris as the 'moderate'
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 479
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > @TOPPING said:
    > > Just catching up with PL. Mark Francois is such a vile specimen he makes me retch.
    >
    > He has a backpfeifengesicht of epic proportions

    Splendid word! :-) (Obviously had to look it up...)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    I wonder if the Tories might unite behind May's deal under Boris. It's the only way out, won't satisfy the DUP mind...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,061
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > >
    > > Hunt looks like Portillo 2001 to me
    >
    > A man with "experiences"?

    I wouldn't know
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    FF43 said:

    > @ah009 said:



    > Farage might not be a fascist. He's certainly friends with some. That leads one to think his views overlap with theirs to some extent.

    > That's too close for my liking. I think it's fair to call him a fascist sympathiser. And I don't want the man anywhere near any levers of power.



    ___________________



    It's an interesting question. I started out thinking it was ridiculous to think of Farage as a fascist, but the more I get to know about the Brexit Party, the more it becomes clear it is a fascist party - in some respects only.



    The messaging of betrayal, that only the Party represents the nation's values against corrupt and traitorous elites, that only the despotic Leader can sort things out. These are taken from the 1930s fascist party playbook. As are the populist rallies.



    The Brexit Party has however none of the militarism of the 1930s fascist parties, has no interest in going to war, is opposed to violence. The racism is covert rather than overt.



    It may be more accurate to describe the Brexit Party as proto-fascist or neo-fascist.

    Not sure taxonomy is very relevant. They have one policy and its a rubbish one. That's enough to dismiss them.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 154
    Believe Boris' time was three years ago.
    Going to lay my winnings against him winning.

    For me it's particularly his time at FO that shows he isn't right for the role.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    +++++

    But that's clearly bollocks. When it looked like we were actually going to No Deal Exit in March, the EU blinked, and gave us a LONG extension (overruling Macron), and they did this without any offer of a new referendum or election, which they had claimed would be the only reason they would extend.

    It probably wouldn't work a second time, but the EU are obviously very keen to avoid No Deal. This is just politicking from Brussels.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Byronic said:

    But that's clearly bollocks. When it looked like we were actually going to No Deal Exit in March, the EU blinked, and gave us a LONG extension

    Ummm, we asked for it...

    I don't think you have quite grasped how this thing works.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,671
    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder if the Tories might unite behind May's deal under Boris. It's the only way out, won't satisfy the DUP mind...

    One of his tweets above suggests this may be his approach.

    Of course small children in Hartlepool Toulon could have told anyone who asked that the deal ain't gonna change whoever is in charge.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007
    > @Byronic said:
    >
    > But that's clearly bollocks. When it looked like we were actually going to No Deal Exit in March, the EU blinked, and gave us a LONG extension (overruling Macron), and they did this without any offer of a new referendum or election, which they had claimed would be the only reason they would extend.
    >
    > It probably wouldn't work a second time, but the EU are obviously very keen to avoid No Deal. This is just politicking from Brussels.
    >
    ----------

    There is a difference between being willing to extend Article 50 and being willing to grant concessions. No Deal may be something the EU wants to avoid, but that is not the same as it being a point of leverage for the UK.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 905
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
    > >
    > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
    >
    > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.

    Quite.

    To equate wanting to leave the EU with being an actual fascist is absurd. The majority of people who voted Brexit Party will just have wanted to register the simple fact they are in favour of Brexit, no more no less.

    These people would be less likely to vote in such a way - out of sheer frustration, in large part - were it not for superior Remain types lazily labelling them as racists, fascists and stupid in a hugely condescending manner.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,521
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > +++++
    >
    > But that's clearly bollocks. When it looked like we were actually going to No Deal Exit in March, the EU blinked, and gave us a LONG extension (overruling Macron), and they did this without any offer of a new referendum or election, which they had claimed would be the only reason they would extend.
    >
    > It probably wouldn't work a second time, but the EU are obviously very keen to avoid No Deal. This is just politicking from Brussels.
    >
    >

    Indeed - that's just the EU saying exactly what they should say to maximise their position, just as anyone trying to maximise the UK's position would want to talk up no-deal.

    The depressing thing is the default journalistic position that when the EU take a position it's an immutable fact which the UK then needs to navigate around.
  • BillyBlakeBillyBlake Posts: 16
    Its be a long while since I've commented as I grew tired of all the nonsense written about EU withdrawal and three years on nothing has changed except that the ramblings of the so called 'liberal consensus' have become even more desperate, hackneyed and outdated.

    'Fascist' they cry in their fervoured sanctimonious self justification but is it the 'fascists' who repeatedly over the years have attempted to impose their faux democratic party political systems on other nations? Is it 'the fascists' who have determinedly attempted to subvert a properly conducted referendum because basically they didn't get their way and their precious tender egos can't stand the rejection and in doing so have callously done more damage to this nation than Brexit ever would have?

    The reality is that the label 'fascist' (which seems now to refer to anyone who upsets the narrow minded sensitivities of the so called liberal consensus) is as tired and outdated as its compatriot 'communist' and indeed the worldview of the so called Liberal Consensus (big is not always better and progress has stopped being progressive). Today you are either with the people or you are with the ruling elite and its clear that the so called now inappropriately named Liberal Consensus are only for the elite.

    Of course there is a problem with being for the elite. Elites ultimately only involve the few, never the many and as the liberal elite's numbers dwindle so they circle the wagons ever closer and cry 'fascists' again and again with McCarthyite enthusiasm as the gulf between them and the rest grows ever wider.......
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    > @marke09 said:
    > estimated declaration times for Sunday night
    >
    > East Midlands – 2330 Sunday (2320 in 2014)
    > Eastern – 2330 Sunday (2230 in 2014)
    > London – 0200 Monday (0306 in 2014)
    > North East – 2230 Sunday (2215 in 2014)
    > North West – 0030 Monday (0024 in 2014)
    > Scotland – 1100 Monday (1235 in 2014). NB Seats allocation for Scotland will be known from overnight local counts but the Western Isles count taking place in the day delays the final declaration.
    > Wales – 0001 Monday (2338 Sunday in 2014)
    > South East – 0100 Monday (0046 in 2014)
    > South West – 2300 Sunday (2338 in 2014)
    > West Midlands – 0001 Monday (0030 in 2014)
    > Yorkshire & The Humber – 2300 Sunday (2328 in 2014)

    Why is the count in London so Slow and so late? It has one of the lowest number of local authority areas to report - only 33?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,024
    > @maaarsh said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > >
    > >
    > > +++++
    > >
    > > But that's clearly bollocks. When it looked like we were actually going to No Deal Exit in March, the EU blinked, and gave us a LONG extension (overruling Macron), and they did this without any offer of a new referendum or election, which they had claimed would be the only reason they would extend.
    > >
    > > It probably wouldn't work a second time, but the EU are obviously very keen to avoid No Deal. This is just politicking from Brussels.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Indeed - that's just the EU saying exactly what they should say to maximise their position, just as anyone trying to maximise the UK's position would want to talk up no-deal.
    >
    > The depressing thing is the default journalistic position that when the EU take a position it's an immutable fact which the UK then needs to navigate around.

    How is giving a long extension that maintains the status quo the EU blinking?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    A belated thanks to Mr. Sandpit and Mr. B2 for their precipitation contemplation.
  • kevokevo Posts: 3
    Have been continuing to work with betfair .... asking them how they will decide the Theresa May exit marke.t I feel they don't have much of a clue:


    Agent: The market will be settled once Theresa May is officially not the leader of the conservative party.

    You at 14:22, May 24:
    I understand .... but to be clear, is that when she resigns, or, when a new leader is in
    place?

    Agent:
    When she is officially not the leader anymore when there is the cerimony and she signs the papers

    You at 14:29, May 24:
    signs what papers???? A paper she will sign, is the resignation letter.

    Agent: at 14:31, May 24:

    Exactly the resignation letter
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,032
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    > > > @RobD said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Err, the EU have said no to renegotiation. <
    > >
    > > ++++
    > >
    > > That's not quite true. It depends what Boris might want to renegotiate.
    > >
    > > e.g. as he is much more liberal than T May on immigration (thank God) I suspect he might just bend on Freedom of Movement, which opens up a host of new options. The EU would be happy to renegotiate if that is the case.
    > >
    > > T May fell because of her own red lines, she authored her downfall. Boris (if he wins) needs to dump all red lines, and say he's starting from scratch.
    > >
    > > He'll have to make new friends, and pacify old enemies, very quickly.
    >
    > That means another long extension.

    _________________________________________

    Quite
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,521
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > @maaarsh said:
    > > > @Byronic said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > +++++
    > > >
    > > > But that's clearly bollocks. When it looked like we were actually going to No Deal Exit in March, the EU blinked, and gave us a LONG extension (overruling Macron), and they did this without any offer of a new referendum or election, which they had claimed would be the only reason they would extend.
    > > >
    > > > It probably wouldn't work a second time, but the EU are obviously very keen to avoid No Deal. This is just politicking from Brussels.
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > Indeed - that's just the EU saying exactly what they should say to maximise their position, just as anyone trying to maximise the UK's position would want to talk up no-deal.
    > >
    > > The depressing thing is the default journalistic position that when the EU take a position it's an immutable fact which the UK then needs to navigate around.
    >
    > How is giving a long extension that maintains the status quo the EU blinking?

    I think you might have replied to the wrong post?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,122
    Anyway, looks like a second referendum has gotten a lot more likely. What fun that will be.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Thanks to whoever has done this spreadsheet with all the latest turnout information. I think it's Tim Joyce (@timjoyce11 on Twitter).

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V-hS14v2F-ez5hKU_Lt9RIyUt_As4XgVkShtCXodzwc/edit#gid=676638115

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,032
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Gosh. He sounds just like Theresa May!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    @Kevo I've messed up the market but it is farcical beyond belief how they're handling this.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @Quincel said:
    > > > @nico67 said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Lmao! If Labour can’t beat the Lib Dems in Corbyns own seat then London is going to be a complete disaster for them .
    > > >
    > > > Without that Survation poll showing the Lib Dems on just 12% and Labour on 23% UK wide I’d be sure it’s going to be a disaster for Labour but how on earth can a poll done the night before be so wrong .
    > >
    > > Anyone know what the LDs are basing this on?
    >
    > Possibly based on observation at the verification stage of the count today.

    In Islington south and Finsbury or Islington north? The former used to be a Lib Dem Labour marginal and Thornberry came close to losing it in 2005 when she held on by less than 500 votes. The LDs used to run the council too pre the coalition. And during all that time Corbyn won his more down at heel north seat easily.

    Lib Dems doing well in Islington is just reverting to trend pre coalition?

    It’s remainer central anyway!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,300
    Byronic said:

    > @Nigel_Foremain said:

    > > @HYUFD said:

    > > > @CarlottaVance said:

    > > >



    > >

    > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole

    >

    > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. <



    ++++



    FFS. Farage is many unpleasant things, but he's not a fascist. He's a populist, a nationalist, a bit of a demagogue, but he's not going to cancel democracy, put the army on the streets, take personal control of the courts, shoot all dissenters, jail all opponents, and inculcate a nationwide worship of violence, machismo and state power.



    He's Viktor Orban in an arguably better suit. He's not Hitler, Mussolini or Franco.



    Your definition of fascist insults all the many brave people who died fighting REAL fascism. Tut.



    EDIT: I see Viewcode got there first. I heartily agree.
    I tend to disagree, though not wholeheartedly.

    Orban does indeed show a disturbing tendency towards fascism.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/george-soros-viktor-orban-ceu/588070/

    I would not on current evidence call Farage a fascist at all, but I don’t think it any kind of insult to “ the many brave people who died...” to suggest that there are parallels in the electoral appeal which his Brexit party is putting before the public. And a public amenable to such an appeal is at least a small part of the way along to accommodating a real fascist.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,129
    Welcome (back) to PB, BillyBlake.

    Agreed on your comments regarding the overuse of "fascist". It's now a synonym for "things I disagree with".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,061
    edited May 2019
    > @Barnesian said:
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > > @Byronic said:
    > > > > @RobD said:
    > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Err, the EU have said no to renegotiation. <
    > > >
    > > > ++++
    > > >
    > > > That's not quite true. It depends what Boris might want to renegotiate.
    > > >
    > > > e.g. as he is much more liberal than T May on immigration (thank God) I suspect he might just bend on Freedom of Movement, which opens up a host of new options. The EU would be happy to renegotiate if that is the case.
    > > >
    > > > T May fell because of her own red lines, she authored her downfall. Boris (if he wins) needs to dump all red lines, and say he's starting from scratch.
    > > >
    > > > He'll have to make new friends, and pacify old enemies, very quickly.
    > >
    > > That means another long extension.
    >
    > _________________________________________
    >
    > Quite

    Boris would not last 5 minutes as Tory leader if he kept free movement and the UK in the single market and/or Customs Union. Nor would he win an election even if he did as Leave voters would surge back to the Brexit Party and Farage.

    So no chance of any new concessions under Boris or further extension, he will try and renegotiate the backstop and if the EU refuse go to No Deal in October
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited May 2019
    > @Barnesian said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > Gosh. He sounds just like Theresa May!<

    +++++

    Quite. What a stupid opening move from Boris. Day 1 of the campaign.... and he's just made a Teresa May-like mistake, giving himself an unnecessary red line, and handing over a whacking great hostage to fortune.

    How can he not have learned from her disastrous inflexibility? To have any chance of delivering Brexit, you need to maintain maximum agility, keep open as much room for compromise, as possible.

    I thought he was meant to be cunning, at least?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Thanks to whoever has done this spreadsheet with all the latest turnout information. I think it's Tim Joyce (@timjoyce11 on Twitter).
    >
    > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V-hS14v2F-ez5hKU_Lt9RIyUt_As4XgVkShtCXodzwc/edit#gid=676638115
    >
    >

    The average increase in turnout in remain areas is almost 5% whereas in leave areas it's only 0.1%. And in general remain areas contain larger numbers of voters than leave areas.
This discussion has been closed.