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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » You think things are bad now?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » You think things are bad now?

Jess Philips had been to Number Ten before but not like this. Not in front of the microphones. Not at the centre of attention. Not as Prime Minister. Yet Prime Minister she was, newly returned from the Palace where the king had asked her to form a government and she’d said yes. Of course she had: for the first time in over a decade, Britain had a clear majority government. For the first time ever, that government would be led by the Democratic Alliance. For the fourth time in succession, and within three years, it would be led by a different party. It had been an amazing few years to witness, if not to live through.

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Comments

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    Hopefully, TBP would create a right wing dictatorship, after it took power.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    That was fun, but I think the Corbyn part is a bit too much of a right-wing stereotype. I'm not saying he'd be good, but I do think he'd govern with a view to winning the next election.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Can we take it you don't support Boris ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    If you continue your scenario Benny Philips will have a trashed economy with government debt over 100% of GDP.

    The people will not be getting anything calmer, rather 'take it from them and give it to me' will be deafening.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,261
    Entertaining article, thanks David. I shocked a friend recently by saying that politics nowadays was fun. "But it's horrifying and tragic!" Well, yes, that too.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > Entertaining article, thanks David. I shocked a friend recently by saying that politics nowadays was fun. "But it's horrifying and tragic!" Well, yes, that too.

    We're seeing the exposure of our political class as incompetent charlatans - there's something deeply cathartic about their failure.

    On more local issues Stodge reported a power sharing agreement in Waverley.

    Did you get a seat at the top table ?
  • I don't think the assumption that Corbyn would govern in the way described is plausible. Not that he wouldn't try to, but he wouldn't be allowed to by the rest of the hard left.
    If we assume that he does somehow act as described, he doesn't survive the appointment of Galloway. The split in the party happens then, and the earlier it happens, the fewer MPs leave, so the new party might be a bit on the small side.
    Also, Jess really doesn't like Lib Dems. She's a lot more left wing than people tend to assume.
    But overall, given that this is aiming to be deliberately extreme, it's rather more plausible than I would like it to be.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    Entertaining article. Johnson needs to create a sufficient climate of fear that MPs will embrace the Vassal State, which is the only somewhat viable Brexit outcome.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    It could also get a lot better.

    Basic Brexit deal means new sensible CoTE has to cut taxes.

    Brexit delivered means Nige retired.

    Labour slump - Jezza gets ditched for a sensible leader.

    Singapore on Sea prospers.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,721
    edited May 2019
    50.7% in 2014.

    Mayoral elections same day then

    https://twitter.com/jchristy93/status/1132197394479820800?s=21
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > That was fun, but I think the Corbyn part is a bit too much of a right-wing stereotype. I'm not saying he'd be good, but I do think he'd govern with a view to winning the next election.

    He doesn't look to be running an opposition with that primary aim?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @TGOHF said:
    > It could also get a lot better.
    >
    > Basic Brexit deal means new sensible CoTE has to cut taxes.
    >
    > Brexit delivered means Nige retired.
    >
    > Labour slump - Jezza gets ditched for a sensible leader.
    >
    > Singapore on Sea prospers.

    Singapore is on the sea - if it wasn't it wouldn't be there.

    Do you know what the Singapore economy entails - its a bit more than low taxes.

    And which taxes do you think need cutting ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    > @isam said:
    > 50.7% in 2014.
    >
    > Mayoral elections same day then
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jchristy93/status/1132197394479820800

    Not any mayoral election

    THAT mayoral election that saw Rahman bribe his way into office
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    > @isam said:
    > 50.7% in 2014.
    >
    > Mayoral elections same day then
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jchristy93/status/1132197394479820800

    I thought turnouts were usually about 110% in Tower Hamlets.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Corbynites fear Jess. They can’t handle popular independent people.

    Especially female ones
    Yes, and ones that point out that the emperor has no clothes:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1131866914148495360?s=19
    I am curious what the reaction will be if labour actually do fine in this election. Its like 2017 - some lab mps really dislike Corbyn and his politics, but for others they worries he would lead them to a massive defeat, and melted away when he did not.

    Jess is not one of those, but if she looks to have panicked about how bad things are unnecessarily it must surely impact how she proceeds.
    On the other hand, if she is correct...
    Depends how badly they do. I can see third being possible but not 4th - the Greens are going to do well I assume but are a long way back without as much momentum as the lds, and the Tories are not holding up well enough I think. I think I saw 1 Tory vs a dozen Brexit party people at verification, the enthusiasm gap is astonishing.

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Corbynites fear Jess. They can’t handle popular independent people.

    Especially female ones
    Yes, and ones that point out that the emperor has no clothes:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1131866914148495360?s=19
    I am curious what the reaction will be if labour actually do fine in this election. Its like 2017 - some lab mps really dislike Corbyn and his politics, but for others they worries he would lead them to a massive defeat, and melted away when he did not.

    Jess is not one of those, but if she looks to have panicked about how bad things are unnecessarily it must surely impact how she proceeds.
    If Labour do well they would have done much better if not for Corbyn and it was not because of Corbyn. If they do badly it is down to Corbyn.

    Pretty much the usual system.

    Ohh and get angry Corbyn supporters for not accepting their analysis showing Corbyn at fault for everything/to credit for nothing and them proven right.
    Ha, yes probably. I'm no fan of Corbyn as you know, but some of his mps are never satisfied.

    Still, perhaps labour really have done very badly, so what's the answer? Surely as the Tories go no deal labour will come out for remain.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633


    And which taxes do you think need cutting ?

    All of them.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,724
    edited May 2019
    <i>The Tories reacted to the deadlock in Brexit and the collapse in polling by picking Boris Johnson, marking it as unusual in actually endorsing the long-time favourite (in both senses). The defining incident came when he was knocked off his bike by a London bus, after exiting a one-way street the wrong way, which might have finished the chances of a lesser man but in this case both his own reaction to it, and also the cackhanded response of some of his <b>principle</b> rivals convinced Tory members that he was the ideal person to make the best of it. In retrospect, the metaphor was glaringly obvious.</I>

    Is that a truly epic pun about Boris' lack of principles, or should it be 'principal?'
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    > @Swindon_Addick said:
    > I don't think the assumption that Corbyn would govern in the way described is plausible. Not that he wouldn't try to, but he wouldn't be allowed to by the rest of the hard left.
    > If we assume that he does somehow act as described, he doesn't survive the appointment of Galloway. The split in the party happens then, and the earlier it happens, the fewer MPs leave, so the new party might be a bit on the small side.
    > Also, Jess really doesn't like Lib Dems. She's a lot more left wing than people tend to assume.
    > But overall, given that this is aiming to be deliberately extreme, it's rather more plausible than I would like it to be.

    I originally was going to have Andrew Adonis as the PM at the end (Shadsy quoted 100/1 on that too) but in the end I couldn't do it. He's a twat and Phillips is most certainly not.

    I agree with what you say about her politics but events can change strategic necessities. Note that I don't have her joining the Lib Dems but joining *with* them.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited May 2019
    > @isam said:
    > 50.7% in 2014.
    >
    > Mayoral elections same day then
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jchristy93/status/1132197394479820800

    I find it difficult to believe that turnout was 49% in Tower Hamlets in 2014.

    Edit - explanation provided - Mayoral election in 2014.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    > @ydoethur said:
    > <i>The Tories reacted to the deadlock in Brexit and the collapse in polling by picking Boris Johnson, marking it as unusual in actually endorsing the long-time favourite (in both senses). The defining incident came when he was knocked off his bike by a London bus, after exiting a one-way street the wrong way, which might have finished the chances of a lesser man but in this case both his own reaction to it, and also the cackhanded response of some of his <b>principle</b> rivals convinced Tory members that he was the ideal person to make the best of it. In retrospect, the metaphor was glaringly obvious.</I>
    >
    > Is that a truly epic pun about Boris' lack of principles, or should it be 'principal?'

    Let's call it an unintentional pun.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited May 2019
    Duplicate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,724
    The Tories reacted to the deadlock in Brexit and the collapse in polling by picking Boris Johnson, marking it as unusual in actually endorsing the long-time favourite (in both senses). The defining incident came when he was knocked off his bike by a London bus, after exiting a one-way street the wrong way, which might have finished the chances of a lesser man but in this case both his own reaction to it, and also the cackhanded response of some of his principle rivals convinced Tory members that he was the ideal person to make the best of it. In retrospect, the metaphor was glaringly obvious.

    Is that a truly epic pun about Boris' lack of principles, or should it be 'principal?'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Frighteningly plausible in places.

    Pretty sure Galloway has blotted his copy book though, no return to labour for him.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @TGOHF said:
    > And which taxes do you think need cutting ?
    >
    > All of them.

    Well if you want all taxes cutting why not go the whole way and get rid of taxes altogether.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,724
    Sorry about the double post.

    I blame Vanilla, which is still shit.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    > @TGOHF said:
    > And which taxes do you think need cutting ?
    >
    > All of them.


    I'd have thought as a new convert to greenery that you'd still want diesel squeezed till the Irish hauliers squeal.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > 50.7% in 2014.
    > >
    > > Mayoral elections same day then
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/jchristy93/status/1132197394479820800
    >
    > I find it difficult to believe that turnout was 49% in Tower Hamlets in 2014.
    >
    > Edit - explanation provided - Mayoral election in 2014.

    Just to add, it was the highest in the country. See Table 8 of the attached, which has 50.9% as the figure.

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/175061/European-Parliament-Elections-2014-Electoral-data-report.pdf
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,261
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > Entertaining article, thanks David. I shocked a friend recently by saying that politics nowadays was fun. "But it's horrifying and tragic!" Well, yes, that too.
    >
    > We're seeing the exposure of our political class as incompetent charlatans - there's something deeply cathartic about their failure.
    >
    > On more local issues Stodge reported a power sharing agreement in Waverley.
    >
    > Did you get a seat at the top table ?

    Yes, I'm one of the 8 on the exec, responsible for operational planning, parking and civil enforcement. All very harmonious so far - the Tories are correctly noting that there's a Corbynite sharing power, eeek, but people are saying meh, let's see what they actually do.

    In shades of 2010 in reverse, we've discovered a huge black hole in the accounts - annual budget £10 million, prospective deficit £3.8 million. The Conservative administration appears to have believed in magic money trees, and left office still planning expenditure on vanity projects like new council offices and new robes for councillors. If we're honest there isn't that much politics in local council business, but my general aim is to prove that one can be left-wing in principle, but focused and competent.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    > @Swindon_Addick said:

    > I don't think the assumption that Corbyn would govern in the way described is plausible. Not that he wouldn't try to, but he wouldn't be allowed to by the rest of the hard left.

    > If we assume that he does somehow act as described, he doesn't survive the appointment of Galloway. The split in the party happens then, and the earlier it happens, the fewer MPs leave, so the new party might be a bit on the small side.

    > Also, Jess really doesn't like Lib Dems. She's a lot more left wing than people tend to assume.

    > But overall, given that this is aiming to be deliberately extreme, it's rather more plausible than I would like it to be.



    I originally was going to have Andrew Adonis as the PM at the end (Shadsy quoted 100/1 on that too) but in the end I couldn't do it. He's a twat and Phillips is most certainly not.



    I agree with what you say about her politics but events can change strategic necessities. Note that I don't have her joining the Lib Dems but joining *with* them.

    > @TGOHF said:

    > And which taxes do you think need cutting ?

    >

    > All of them.





    I'd have thought as a new convert to greenery that you'd still want diesel squeezed till the Irish hauliers squeal.

    Those Irish polluters don’t buy their diesel in the Uk.

    Anyway won’t there be a super duper hard border at Anglesey ? The wonderful EU will provide free ferries to Brittany post Brexit .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    ydoethur said:

    Sorry about the double post.

    I blame Vanilla, which is still shit.

    Comment systems are like political parties - they're all shit, they mutate over time, and it's about which is temporarily better than the others.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    A fun lead and all too plausible - except perhaps for the detour into Corbyn and the middle east where David reveals his Tory prejudice.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Remember, Rahman told people that their ETERNAL SALVATION* rested on them coming out to vote. Not surprising that turnout was high in Tower Hamlets in 2014.

    *supported by payments to two imams, IIRC
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,724
    Is this an attempt at lightning the mood?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > Entertaining article, thanks David. I shocked a friend recently by saying that politics nowadays was fun. "But it's horrifying and tragic!" Well, yes, that too.
    > >
    > > We're seeing the exposure of our political class as incompetent charlatans - there's something deeply cathartic about their failure.
    > >
    > > On more local issues Stodge reported a power sharing agreement in Waverley.
    > >
    > > Did you get a seat at the top table ?
    >
    > Yes, I'm one of the 8 on the exec, responsible for operational planning, parking and civil enforcement. All very harmonious so far - the Tories are correctly noting that there's a Corbynite sharing power, eeek, but people are saying meh, let's see what they actually do.
    >
    > In shades of 2010 in reverse, we've discovered a huge black hole in the accounts - annual budget £10 million, prospective deficit £3.8 million. The Conservative administration appears to have believed in magic money trees, and left office still planning expenditure on vanity projects like new council offices and new robes for councillors. If we're honest there isn't that much politics in local council business, but my general aim is to prove that one can be left-wing in principle, but focused and competent.

    Congratulations Nick - you're an inspiration to us all.

    And good luck in the job.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    > @TGOHF said:
    > And which taxes do you think need cutting ?
    >
    > All of them.

    The direction of taxation is upward, given the rising demographic pressures on health and social care
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Silliness. Palpatine was competent, apart from a glaring blind spot when it came to teddy bears, so the comparison with May does not really work.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    The end of the Tory party or the end of the Labour party are predicted with depressing regularity on pb.com.

    In fact, the Tory party and the Labour party will be here when we have all ceased our posting.

    The only part of David's prediction that I believe is that Corbyn will become PM.

    I suspect, for a good while, a Corbyn government could be very popular. Perhaps not popular on pb.com, though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    And here we go. It has started. The Boris says anything that comes into his head show:

    This morning's episode: Boris tells Rory that he will not push for No Deal.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/25/rory-stewart-says-could-not-serve-boris-johnson/
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > Entertaining article, thanks David. I shocked a friend recently by saying that politics nowadays was fun. "But it's horrifying and tragic!" Well, yes, that too.
    > >
    > > We're seeing the exposure of our political class as incompetent charlatans - there's something deeply cathartic about their failure.
    > >
    > > On more local issues Stodge reported a power sharing agreement in Waverley.
    > >
    > > Did you get a seat at the top table ?
    >
    > Yes, I'm one of the 8 on the exec, responsible for operational planning, parking and civil enforcement. All very harmonious so far - the Tories are correctly noting that there's a Corbynite sharing power, eeek, but people are saying meh, let's see what they actually do.
    >
    > In shades of 2010 in reverse, we've discovered a huge black hole in the accounts - annual budget £10 million, prospective deficit £3.8 million. The Conservative administration appears to have believed in magic money trees, and left office still planning expenditure on vanity projects like new council offices and new robes for councillors. If we're honest there isn't that much politics in local council business, but my general aim is to prove that one can be left-wing in principle, but focused and competent.

    Ah, so Waverley’s Chris Grayling!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > The end of the Tory party or the end of the Labour party are predicted with depressing regularity on pb.com.
    >
    > In fact, the Tory party and the Labour party will be here when we have all ceased our posting.
    >
    > The only part of David's prediction that I believe is that Corbyn will become PM.
    >
    > I suspect, for a good while, a Corbyn government could be very popular. Perhaps not popular on pb.com, though.

    The Tories will have worked so hard to put Corbyn in office, let's hope it works out well.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    By far the least believable aspect is the idea that PM Corbyn would need to resort to an election to stay in power as long as he liked
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,724
    edited May 2019

    And here we go. It has started. The Boris says anything that comes into his head show

    That would, if he did, be smart politics.

    That would after all lead to a very prolonged period of silence on his part.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Right old left wing dog fight going on on the other thread.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2019
    > @IanB2 said:

    > The Tories will have worked so hard to put Corbyn in office, let's hope it works out well.

    Credit where credit is true. A lot of people worked hard to get Corbyn in office. He could not have done it on his own.

    Remainers worked very hard to put Corbyn office, so let's hope it all works out for the affluent Remainers as well.

    At any rate, we should hear less about their share portfolios and second homes and third homes on pb.com ....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    I don’t see how a minority Labour government gets to pass a far left budget. It won’t carry all its own MPs, let alone opposition ones. Corbyn will definitely be focused on abroad, though. One thing he might do very quickly is recognise East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital. Galloway looks to have burned all his bridges with Labour. Even the bits he used to be friends with.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    > @IanB2 said:
    > A fun lead and all too plausible - except perhaps for the detour into Corbyn and the middle east where David reveals his Tory prejudice.

    There has to be some reason for the split. Yes, some aspects are extreme but to misquote some 1920s physicist, at the moment the question should not be "is this implausible" but "is this implausible enough".
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited May 2019
    Interesting piece David.

    Shall we drink the poison now? :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    > @david_herdson said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    > > A fun lead and all too plausible - except perhaps for the detour into Corbyn and the middle east where David reveals his Tory prejudice.
    >
    > There has to be some reason for the split. Yes, some aspects are extreme but to misquote some 1920s physicist, at the moment the question should not be "is this implausible" but "is this implausible enough".

    As with the Tories, the imperative for a split is more likely to arise from defeat than actions taken after a victory. If Labour loses again the split is more likely - but the Tories are clearly doing their best to avoid this happening.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited May 2019
    > @kle4 said:
    > Right old left wing dog fight going on on the other thread.

    Good one isn’t it. We got to the crux of it when our Corbynite comrade basically admitted that winning isn’t very important. The sort of thing that should warm the cockles of Tory hearts today.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2019
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > I don’t see how a minority Labour government gets to pass a far left budget. It won’t carry all its own MPs, let alone opposition ones. Corbyn will definitely be focused on abroad, though. One thing he might do very quickly is recognise East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital. Galloway looks to have burned all his bridges with Labour. Even the bits he used to be friends with.

    --

    I doubt it.

    Corbyn will do a few very popular things. Abolish tuition fees, introduce free care for the elderly. I suspect all Labour MPs will vote for those.

    There will be borrowing and higher taxes for the wealthy. (That includes people who don't think they are wealthy like pb.com).

    It is pretty easy to keep this going for a few years. Long enough for Corbyn to retire.

    He will be the first PM since Wilson who has gone out on a high.

    Instead of slinking away in pitying tears (May), in bloodied disgrace (Blair), in a silent huff that the world did not accept him as a Messiah (Brown), in howls of mockery and derision (Major) and in public school high dudgeon (Cameron).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    edited May 2019
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > Interesting piece David.
    >
    > Shall we drink the poison now? :D

    Kool-Aid surely?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > All the lols.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/AngryScotland/status/1132205508243468288

    I always thought it was a pity that Palpatine got defeated by teddy bears. It was a bit of an arse-pull.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    Turns out that if you spend all your time telling foreigners you don’t like them it puts quite a few off from spending their time and money with you. Whoever would have thought it?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-uk-tourism-money-economy-visitor-numbers-deficit-travel-eu-tourists-a8929461.html
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    A thought on Scunthorpe.

    What is damaging to the government is not the closure of the steelworks but the imagery of another vulture fund looting a company and then leaving the taxpayer to clean up the mess.

    I've heard several comments of "Its like what happened to BHS".

    And it also looks like the government is either incapable of doing anything or, worse, sees nothing wrong with what keeps happening.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    > @another_richard said:

    > > @NickPalmer said:

    > > Entertaining article, thanks David. I shocked a friend recently by saying that politics nowadays was fun. "But it's horrifying and tragic!" Well, yes, that too.

    >

    > We're seeing the exposure of our political class as incompetent charlatans - there's something deeply cathartic about their failure.

    >

    > On more local issues Stodge reported a power sharing agreement in Waverley.

    >

    > Did you get a seat at the top table ?



    Yes, I'm one of the 8 on the exec, responsible for operational planning, parking and civil enforcement. All very harmonious so far - the Tories are correctly noting that there's a Corbynite sharing power, eeek, but people are saying meh, let's see what they actually do.



    In shades of 2010 in reverse, we've discovered a huge black hole in the accounts - annual budget £10 million, prospective deficit £3.8 million. The Conservative administration appears to have believed in magic money trees, and left office still planning expenditure on vanity projects like new council offices and new robes for councillors. If we're honest there isn't that much politics in local council business, but my general aim is to prove that one can be left-wing in principle, but focused and competent.

    Good luck.

    Competent politics would be a welcome relief.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,724
    edited May 2019

    A thought on Scunthorpe.



    What is damaging to the government is not the closure of the steelworks but the imagery of another vulture fund looting a company and then leaving the taxpayer to clean up the mess.



    I've heard several comments of "Its like what happened to BHS".



    And it also looks like the government is either incapable of doing anything or, worse, sees nothing wrong with what keeps happening.

    'Twas ever thus. Look at Rover, which actually happened with the enthusiastic support of the government and the unions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,724

    I doubt it.

    Corbyn will do a few very popular things. Abolish tuition fees, introduce free care for the elderly. I suspect all Labour MPs will vote for those.

    There will be borrowing and higher taxes for the wealthy. (That includes people who don't think they are wealthy like pb.com).

    It is pretty easy to keep this going for a few years. Long enough for Corbyn to retire.

    He will be the first PM since Wilson who has gone out on a high.

    Instead of slinking away in pitying tears (May), in bloodied disgrace (Blair), in a silent huff that the world did not accept him as a Messiah (Brown), in howls of mockery and derision (Major) and in public school high dudgeon (Cameron).

    I wouldn't have said Wilson left on a 'high.' He left without actually being forced out by his party, which is ever so slightly different. But he hadn't had a 'high' since about 1968.

    The last PM to leave on a 'high' in that sense was Baldwin who retired showered with laurels after his deft handling of the Abdication Crisis.

    That wouldn't be a happy parallel for Corbyn.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @ydoethur said:
    > A thought on Scunthorpe.
    >
    >
    >
    > What is damaging to the government is not the closure of the steelworks but the imagery of another vulture fund looting a company and then leaving the taxpayer to clean up the mess.
    >
    >
    >
    > I've heard several comments of "Its like what happened to BHS".
    >
    >
    >
    > And it also looks like the government is either incapable of doing anything or, worse, sees nothing wrong with what keeps happening.
    >
    > 'Twas ever thus. Look at Rover, which actually happened with the enthusiastic support of the government and the unions.

    Indeed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Yay, house price crash. Bring it on.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @ydoethur said:
    >
    > I wouldn't have said Wilson left on a 'high.' He left without actually being forced out by his party, which is ever so slightly different. But he hadn't had a 'high' since about 1968.
    >

    I think Wilson was the last PM to leave the job on his own terms with his reputation moderately intact.

    That is probably as much as any modern PM could hope for.

    I think Corby could easily emulate that with a short (2 or 3 year) premiership, and then passing the Labour leadership on to the Jezziah, or someone.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @ydoethur said:
    >
    > I wouldn't have said Wilson left on a 'high.' He left without actually being forced out by his party, which is ever so slightly different. But he hadn't had a 'high' since about 1968.
    >

    I think out-foxing the Tories in the 1972 elections was a high.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Bad? It sounds quite good.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,724

    > @ydoethur said:

    >

    > I wouldn't have said Wilson left on a 'high.' He left without actually being forced out by his party, which is ever so slightly different. But he hadn't had a 'high' since about 1968.

    >



    I think out-foxing the Tories in the 1972 elections was a high.

    Really? Didn't know he outfoxed them in elections in 1972.

    1974, now, he did OK there and he just about managed to push them out. But it wasn't a 'high.' It left him in much the position May has been in for two years, and he achieved about as much.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    kle4 said:

    Right old left wing dog fight going on on the other thread.

    Blimey, and I thought the right could be brutal in their infighting. Interesting insight into the Corbyn perspective, but the non-Corbynites are right, being able to do some good (from your own perspective) is better than being out of power but ideologically pure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    edited May 2019
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > I don’t see how a minority Labour government gets to pass a far left budget. It won’t carry all its own MPs, let alone opposition ones. Corbyn will definitely be focused on abroad, though. One thing he might do very quickly is recognise East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital. Galloway looks to have burned all his bridges with Labour. Even the bits he used to be friends with.
    >
    > --
    >
    > I doubt it.
    >
    > Corbyn will do a few very popular things. Abolish tuition fees, introduce free care for the elderly. I suspect all Labour MPs will vote for those.
    >
    > There will be borrowing and higher taxes for the wealthy. (That includes people who don't think they are wealthy like pb.com).
    >
    > It is pretty easy to keep this going for a few years. Long enough for Corbyn to retire.
    >
    > He will be the first PM since Wilson who has gone out on a high.
    >
    > Instead of slinking away in pitying tears (May), in bloodied disgrace (Blair), in a silent huff that the world did not accept him as a Messiah (Brown), in howls of mockery and derision (Major) and in public school high dudgeon (Cameron).
    >

    I think David's article looks very possible in many respects.

    Corbyn would be the Hollande of British politics and one of the most unpopular PMs of all time within a year. Not least because he would swiftly find it difficult to fund all his spending promises after a mass exodus of the super rich abroad if he came to power so the burden of higher taxes would fall mainly on the middle class while the working class would dislike his open door immigration policies.

    Strikes would also become far more frequent
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132217154290556929?s=21

    LOL! Turned David's dystopian vision into reality
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    > @Mauve said:
    > Right old left wing dog fight going on on the other thread.
    >
    > Blimey, and I thought the right could be brutal in their infighting. Interesting insight into the Corbyn perspective, but the non-Corbynites are right, being able to do some good (from your own perspective) is better than being out of power but ideologically pure.

    Actually Corbyn himself has grown into believing the same - he is more flexible, or at least more willing to obfuscate, than his critics and his supporters act like sometimes. He's been at the job quite some time now, he is not the same naiive perennial backbencher he was then, for better and worse.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,571
    Interesting thread, thanks, and well done for writing it in a way that just about avoided an (unnecessary) opinion on the merits of Brexit itself.

    I broadly agree down to the outcome of the GE that ousts Johnson and puts in Corbyn. However, I disagree with you that the Tory vote would implode in quite the way you imagine. May's problem was that she increasingly came to be seen by Brexiteers as a closet Remainer. By contrast, Johnson would have been seen to fly the flag of the Brexiteers' cause, only to be frustrated by a Parliament of Remainers which eventually nailed their colours to the mast by voting to revoke. So the ire of Brexiteers would then be directed at Parliament and the EU, not Johnson and the Conservatives. The Tories might still be capable of polling in the high 20s or even the low 30s in those circumstances, with the Brexit Party doing only enough damage to let in a minority Corbyn government in rather than supplanting the Conservatives. If Corbyn's government was seen to be failing, then things would then be set up for a the Conservative Party, led by either Johnson or a Brexiteer successor, rather than the Brexit Party, to win a convincing majority in a subsequent election.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    > @ydoethur said:

    >

    > I wouldn't have said Wilson left on a 'high.' He left without actually being forced out by his party, which is ever so slightly different. But he hadn't had a 'high' since about 1968.

    >



    I think Wilson was the last PM to leave the job on his own terms with his reputation moderately intact.



    That is probably as much as any modern PM could hope for.



    I think Corby could easily emulate that with a short (2 or 3 year) premiership, and then passing the Labour leadership on to the Jezziah, or someone.

    Blair left on as close to a high as you can realistically get - wasn't openly forced out like May or Thatcher, never lost a GE, didn't leave because of his own cockup like Cameron. Can't get much better.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Fun story. Spoiler alert! What actually happens is far stranger.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > Turns out that if you spend all your time telling foreigners you don’t like them it puts quite a few off from spending their time and money with you. Whoever would have thought it?
    >
    > https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-uk-tourism-money-economy-visitor-numbers-deficit-travel-eu-tourists-a8929461.html

    In Sevilla this weekend with some UK hotelier friends who say they've come through a very sticky patch for the same reason. Democracy often makes poor choices but didn't someone day it's the worst system except all the rest?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > > I don’t see how a minority Labour government gets to pass a far left budget. It won’t carry all its own MPs, let alone opposition ones. Corbyn will definitely be focused on abroad, though. One thing he might do very quickly is recognise East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital. Galloway looks to have burned all his bridges with Labour. Even the bits he used to be friends with.
    > >
    > > --
    > >
    > > I doubt it.
    > >
    > > Corbyn will do a few very popular things. Abolish tuition fees, introduce free care for the elderly. I suspect all Labour MPs will vote for those.
    > >
    > > There will be borrowing and higher taxes for the wealthy. (That includes people who don't think they are wealthy like pb.com).
    > >
    > > It is pretty easy to keep this going for a few years. Long enough for Corbyn to retire.
    > >
    > > He will be the first PM since Wilson who has gone out on a high.
    > >
    > > Instead of slinking away in pitying tears (May), in bloodied disgrace (Blair), in a silent huff that the world did not accept him as a Messiah (Brown), in howls of mockery and derision (Major) and in public school high dudgeon (Cameron).
    > >
    >
    > I think David's article looks very possible in many respects.
    >
    > Corbyn would be the Hollande of British politics and one of the most unpopular PMs of all time within a year. Not least because he would swiftly find it difficult to fund all his spending promises after a mass exodus of the super rich abroad if he came to power so the burden of higher taxes would fall mainly on the middle class while the working class would dislike his open door immigration policies.
    >
    > Strikes would also become far more frequent

    Also with his super-duper plan of nationalising the utilities on the cheap from the pension firms, why would any investment fund buy gilts to fund these policies?

    Corbyns first months in office would be marked out by a desperate attempt to balance the books.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    I'm struggling to believe Matt Hancock is a real person and not an Ali G style extended joke that's being played on everyone.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > > I don’t see how a minority Labour government gets to pass a far left budget. It won’t carry all its own MPs, let alone opposition ones. Corbyn will definitely be focused on abroad, though. One thing he might do very quickly is recognise East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital. Galloway looks to have burned all his bridges with Labour. Even the bits he used to be friends with.
    > >
    > > --
    > >
    > > I doubt it.
    > >
    > > Corbyn will do a few very popular things. Abolish tuition fees, introduce free care for the elderly. I suspect all Labour MPs will vote for those.
    > >
    > > There will be borrowing and higher taxes for the wealthy. (That includes people who don't think they are wealthy like pb.com).
    > >
    > > It is pretty easy to keep this going for a few years. Long enough for Corbyn to retire.
    > >
    > > He will be the first PM since Wilson who has gone out on a high.
    > >
    > > Instead of slinking away in pitying tears (May), in bloodied disgrace (Blair), in a silent huff that the world did not accept him as a Messiah (Brown), in howls of mockery and derision (Major) and in public school high dudgeon (Cameron).
    > >
    >
    > I think David's article looks very possible in many respects.
    >
    > Corbyn would be the Hollande of British politics and one of the most unpopular PMs of all time within a year. Not least because he would swiftly find it difficult to fund all his spending promises after a mass exodus of the super rich abroad if he came to power so the burden of higher taxes would fall mainly on the middle class while the working class would dislike his open door immigration policies.
    >
    > Strikes would also become far more frequent

    One interesting point on this though - and it is not meant to be a defence of Corbyn.

    We are continually being told that the super rich are already not paying taxes anyway. If that is the case, what does the country lose if they decide to move their 'not paying taxes' to another country? The flight of the super rich only works as a threat if they are currently paying taxes here. If (and I say if because I am not certain) the narrative is correct and they are avoiding all those taxes already, what loss is it to Corbyn if they continue to do so?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    > @ydoethur said:

    > A thought on Scunthorpe.

    >

    >

    >

    > What is damaging to the government is not the closure of the steelworks but the imagery of another vulture fund looting a company and then leaving the taxpayer to clean up the mess.

    >

    >

    >

    > I've heard several comments of "Its like what happened to BHS".

    >

    >

    >

    > And it also looks like the government is either incapable of doing anything or, worse, sees nothing wrong with what keeps happening.

    >

    > 'Twas ever thus. Look at Rover, which actually happened with the enthusiastic support of the government and the unions.



    Indeed.

    Yep. It really is scandalous. Despicably unjust. Even Adam Smith warned that governments had to act strongly to curtail the power of corporations, so there is nothing in the laissez faire capitalist playbook that says you should let these things happen and the market will sort it out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    edited May 2019
    An alternative dystopian vision of the future:

    The new Tory leader can't command a majority but the HoC remains paralysed, so May stays as PM, with Corbyn and the Tory leader both regularly calling for a General Election, but never being able to get a majority to vote down Theresa May. Article 50 keeps getting extended and then when the 2022 election finally arrives, it results in an even more hung parliament. None of the parties can agree on a new government, so the stalemate continues with May carrying on as Prime Minister for another five years.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @Paristonda said:
    >
    > Blair left on as close to a high as you can realistically get - wasn't openly forced out like May or Thatcher, never lost a GE, didn't leave because of his own cockup like Cameron. Can't get much better.

    Massive rewriting of recent history.

    Blair was forced out (much like May, in fact, but without the tears).

    And I think by any objective definition, the Iraq War was a much greater cockup than the Referendum. And much. much more shameful.

    Unless you think the deaths of arabs don't matter.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    > @Roger said:
    >
    >
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132217154290556929?s=21
    >
    > LOL! Turned David's dystopian vision into reality

    He's a Scot, supports Hibs, was an MSP and lives in the south of France.

    Perfect for the North-East! (But not of England)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > Turns out that if you spend all your time telling foreigners you don’t like them it puts quite a few off from spending their time and money with you. Whoever would have thought it?
    >
    > https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-uk-tourism-money-economy-visitor-numbers-deficit-travel-eu-tourists-a8929461.html

    Perhaps you should have a word with those people who pedaled lies about xenophobia.
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 329
    Great article David. On a similar theme here is a posting I put on Facebook yesterday. For the record I am no fan of Boris the Buffoon!

    People are already asking me what I think will happen re the Tory leadership. As if I, an isolated Highlander should somehow know :)

    Here is a scenario for you to like/panic over depending on your attitude to Brexit.

    1) The Conservative Party membership select the candidate whom they see as the hardest Brexiteer on offer and s/he becomes Prime Minister in mid July.

    2) S/he makes clear from Day 1 that Leaving the EU without a deal holds no fears and will be the default choice of the "new" government. The EU is told the only way to avoid this is to accept the only option which passed in the HoC, the Malthouse/Brady amendment and ditch the Backstop.

    3) the Remoaner dominated HoC is outraged and Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin try their stop Brexit tactic Mark II. but the new PM makes clear s/he will disregard this and basically tell them to "feck off".

    4) If they don't like it the only thing they can do is vote down the Government and trigger a General Election which of course none of the Labour/LibDem or SNP parties can now avoid having all called for one.

    5) Nigel Farage and the DUP like what the new PM is offering and IF a General Election is called, fall in behind. Every Tory candidate is either required to accept a Manifesto which explicitly includes a "No Deal" Brexit or not stand so Letwin, Grieve and co either retire or are de-selected. In seats where the Tory candidate stands on the "No Deal" manifesto, the Brexit party doesn't stand. In Labour Brexit supporting seats where Labour MPs haven't supported Brexit, the Brexit party stands to split the Labour vote and help the Tories take the seat through the middle. In some seats the Tories might even stand aside for a Brexit candidate.

    6) The Tories lose a number of Remain constituencies to the LibDems in the south of England but either alone or with the Brexit Party capture dozens of Brexit supporting Labour seats in the midlands and north of England. The Tories do regain some seats from Labour where voters voted Labour rather than LibDem in 2017 and now regret it.

    7) The Tories don't lose as many seats as expected in Remain voting constituencies because wealthy people fear a Corbyn government taxing them out of existence more than a No Deal Brexit.

    8) New PM gets a decent majority. The EU goes into full scale panic mode and the Backstop is ditched. A deal is done and the UK leaves the EU.

    All this may be wishful thinking on my part but all I would say is remember I am a descendant of Alice Nutter and over the years some scenarios I have predicted have happened!

    David could indeed be right but IF the PM tells the HoC to feck off the only thing they can do is remove him/her and given all the calls for a GE, there would have to be one.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > > @ydoethur said:
    >
    > A thought on Scunthorpe.
    >
    > What is damaging to the government is not the closure of the steelworks but the imagery of another vulture fund looting a company and then leaving the taxpayer to clean up the mess.
    >
    > I've heard several comments of "Its like what happened to BHS".
    >
    > And it also looks like the government is either incapable of doing anything or, worse, sees nothing wrong with what keeps happening.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > 'Twas ever thus. Look at Rover, which actually happened with the enthusiastic support of the government and the unions.
    >
    >
    >
    > Indeed.
    >
    > Yep. It really is scandalous. Despicably unjust. Even Adam Smith warned that governments had to act strongly to curtail the power of corporations, so there is nothing in the laissez faire capitalist playbook that says you should let these things happen and the market will sort it out.

    There is a mentality among some on the political right that corporate business should never be criticised no matter what there actions are.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > Turns out that if you spend all your time telling foreigners you don’t like them it puts quite a few off from spending their time and money with you. Whoever would have thought it?
    > >
    > > https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-uk-tourism-money-economy-visitor-numbers-deficit-travel-eu-tourists-a8929461.html
    >
    > Perhaps you should have a word with those people who pedaled lies about xenophobia.

    Yeah, tell them to get on their bikes.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > > > I don’t see how a minority Labour government gets to pass a far left budget. It won’t carry all its own MPs, let alone opposition ones. Corbyn will definitely be focused on abroad, though. One thing he might do very quickly is recognise East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital. Galloway looks to have burned all his bridges with Labour. Even the bits he used to be friends with.
    > > >
    > > > --
    > > >
    > > > I doubt it.
    > > >
    > > > Corbyn will do a few very popular things. Abolish tuition fees, introduce free care for the elderly. I suspect all Labour MPs will vote for those.
    > > >
    > > > There will be borrowing and higher taxes for the wealthy. (That includes people who don't think they are wealthy like pb.com).
    > > >
    > > > It is pretty easy to keep this going for a few years. Long enough for Corbyn to retire.
    > > >
    > > > He will be the first PM since Wilson who has gone out on a high.
    > > >
    > > > Instead of slinking away in pitying tears (May), in bloodied disgrace (Blair), in a silent huff that the world did not accept him as a Messiah (Brown), in howls of mockery and derision (Major) and in public school high dudgeon (Cameron).
    > > >
    > >
    > > I think David's article looks very possible in many respects.
    > >
    > > Corbyn would be the Hollande of British politics and one of the most unpopular PMs of all time within a year. Not least because he would swiftly find it difficult to fund all his spending promises after a mass exodus of the super rich abroad if he came to power so the burden of higher taxes would fall mainly on the middle class while the working class would dislike his open door immigration policies.
    > >
    > > Strikes would also become far more frequent
    >
    > Also with his super-duper plan of nationalising the utilities on the cheap from the pension firms, why would any investment fund buy gilts to fund these policies?
    >
    > Corbyns first months in office would be marked out by a desperate attempt to balance the books.

    You people just don’t get it - it’s not all about money.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @Roger said:
    > >
    > >
    > > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132217154290556929?s=21
    > >
    > > LOL! Turned David's dystopian vision into reality
    >
    > He's a Scot, supports Hibs, was an MSP and lives in the south of France.
    >
    > Perfect for the North-East! (But not of England)


    A SCon msp in fact, and a regular columnist in the Scotsman ranting about the awfulness of independence and the EssEnnPee. I wonder how he feels about Farages's 'let's have an honest debate about Scottish indy after Brexit' guff?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited May 2019
    > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > I'm struggling to believe Matt Hancock is a real person and not an Ali G style extended joke that's being played on everyone.

    Outside of politics in any other walk of life he'd be pretty much unemployable yet here we are with him running to be Prime Minister of the country...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > Turns out that if you spend all your time telling foreigners you don’t like them it puts quite a few off from spending their time and money with you. Whoever would have thought it?
    > >
    > > https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-uk-tourism-money-economy-visitor-numbers-deficit-travel-eu-tourists-a8929461.html
    >
    > Perhaps you should have a word with those people who pedaled lies about xenophobia.


    You mean crush the saboteurs?
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    "Shadsy quoted me an indicative 100/1 on the next four PMs being from different parties. If he were to firm that up, I think there’s some value there."

    As with the recent Betfair debacle, caveat bettor. If an existing party had a name change but is the same legal entity, or two parties fold into one, or one party divides into two, there could be confusion about whether or not they are different parties.

    An in theory you might have to wait decades for your payout even if you're right.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    The only Brexit that can work for the ERG and Faragists is one in which the EU is seen to be defeated. And that Brexit is undeliverable. It’s why they will never stop feeling betrayed. An unwinnable war is what Boris Johnson did more than anyone else to create. It will destroy the Tories, Labour and the UK, but not the EU.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Vettel’s turn to bin it in final practice.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    CHANGE FROM HER USUAL BUFFALO
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    > @Luckyguy1983 said:

    > > @ydoethur said:

    >

    > A thought on Scunthorpe.

    >

    > What is damaging to the government is not the closure of the steelworks but the imagery of another vulture fund looting a company and then leaving the taxpayer to clean up the mess.

    >

    > I've heard several comments of "Its like what happened to BHS".

    >

    > And it also looks like the government is either incapable of doing anything or, worse, sees nothing wrong with what keeps happening.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > 'Twas ever thus. Look at Rover, which actually happened with the enthusiastic support of the government and the unions.

    >

    >

    >

    > Indeed.

    >

    > Yep. It really is scandalous. Despicably unjust. Even Adam Smith warned that governments had to act strongly to curtail the power of corporations, so there is nothing in the laissez faire capitalist playbook that says you should let these things happen and the market will sort it out.



    There is a mentality among some on the political right that corporate business should never be criticised no matter what there actions are.

    I agree, and it disgusts me. I believe in the mechanics of the lowest possible regulation and taxation to remove barriers to new business growth, but monopolies and corporations setting their own rules is the opposite of that. Successive governments have allowed it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > > Turns out that if you spend all your time telling foreigners you don’t like them it puts quite a few off from spending their time and money with you. Whoever would have thought it?
    > > >
    > > > https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-uk-tourism-money-economy-visitor-numbers-deficit-travel-eu-tourists-a8929461.html
    > >
    > > Perhaps you should have a word with those people who pedaled lies about xenophobia.
    >
    >
    > You mean crush the saboteurs?

    Is that your best response ???

    Try something relevant to the issue next time.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,874
    Looks to me like Rory Stewart is setting himself up for pole position as the “told you so” candidate in the Tory leadership election that follows Johnson’s downfall.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    > @Paristonda said:

    >

    > Blair left on as close to a high as you can realistically get - wasn't openly forced out like May or Thatcher, never lost a GE, didn't leave because of his own cockup like Cameron. Can't get much better.



    Massive rewriting of recent history.



    Blair was forced out (much like May, in fact, but without the tears).



    And I think by any objective definition, the Iraq War was a much greater cockup than the Referendum. And much. much more shameful.



    Unless you think the deaths of arabs don't matter.

    Of course Iraq was a huge cockup but it's not what drove him out, he still won an election after that (albeit he got lucky there winning on 35% of the vote). Cameron resigned a year after winning a majority for his party because of the referendum, much more directly linked. Blair was pushed out, but after 10 years in office he knew he was at the end of his political life expectancy anyway.
This discussion has been closed.