> @rcs1000 said: > @Sean_F said: > Turnout is up in most of the Leave districts that have reported so far. It's up by a bit more in most of the Remain districts that have reported so far, but I've not seen anything so far that's inconsistent with the polling. > > ++++++ > > I think the maths on this one is relatively simple. If there were two districts that voted in the referendum, one voted 50-0 in favour of Leave, and the other 50-0 in favour of Remain. If in the Leave dictrict, turnout was down 10 people, while in the Remain one it was flat, then you would expect that in aggregate numbers Remain would be doing better. > > It is, of course, slightly more complex, as none of the districts are 50-0, one way or another. Nevertheless, on any crude modelling, a situation where Remain-y places are turning out more than Leave-y ones, suggests that Remain will do slightly better. > > However, the one thing it's really important to note is that the effects are quite small. By and large Leave-ier districts are up around two percentage points, while Remain are up about five. So that's a roughly three percentage point differential. > > Errors from pollsters in sampling are likely to be a bigger issue. (And I would note that Leavers were more confident in turning out than Remainers in polls. Something that might not be born out in the figures tomorrow.)
That is on a macro scale, but what is happening within those districts?
So in Leicester for example, the same pattern may be the case, with leafy Stoneygate turning out, while the Saffron Lane Estate stays at home. My hunch is that the micro differentials will match the macro ones.
And I would note that Leavers were more confident in turning out than Remainers in polls. Something that might not be born out in the figures tomorrow.)
They were? The final polls have a statistically even 2016 Leave/Remain certainty to vote.
And a potential increase in Remain voters does not necessarily contradict that; the 2014 European elections may well have had a majority who would go on to vote Leave, with this election becoming more even.
@isam said: Arent there a lot more Leave districts than Remain?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well yes, but the Remain districts are larger. And there seems to be a correlation between Remain share and increases in turnout.
Now as I said, the effects are small (and not necessarily incompatible with Brexit Party getting 40%). Nevertheless, from an aggregate vote share perspective, I would expect better turnout in Remain areas to indicate Remainers were turning out.
Turn it around for a second. If someone said to you, "there are elections next week, what would you like to see in the turnout figures to indicate the Brexit vote was holding up?"
And I suspect you'd say, "all else being equal I'd hope Brexit areas turnout would hold up better than Remain areas"
> @brokenwheel said: > And I would note that Leavers were more confident in turning out than Remainers in polls. Something that might not be born out in the figures tomorrow.) > > They were? The final polls have a statistically even 2016 Leave/Remain certainty to vote. > > And a potential increase in Remain voters does not necessarily contradict that, the 2014 European elections may well have had a majority who would go on to vote Leave and this election becoming more even.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > A lot of seemingly clever analysts on twitter are showing the turnout is very bad for Leave... when I mildly questioned it on here I was patronised to within an inch of my life, but it does seem obvious... > > > > > > are the Lib Dems a good bet at 40s?? > > > > I'm not sure it counts as analysis *before* the results come out. > > If the turnout is up in all the Remain places and only steady/down in the Leave ones, it does seem obvious to think the result might not be as the polls forecast. Lots of Remainers are posting them under the header "interesting" ie "I can retract this if it doesnt show what I imply"
The problem with these turnout based predictions is that it assumes the remain/leave proportion of voters in this election is similar to that in the referendum.
In a bit more detail: the Remain/Leave split in most areas is in the 40-60 range. The turnout is in the 30-40% range, this leaves too much leeway to have confidence in predictions made using just these two factors. If nationwide incensed leavers were strongly motivated to vote then it would dwarf the effect based on the turnout. If tory leavers wanted to stay at home and remainers determined to get their voices heard then the turnout based predictions would be understimating the LD+Green+Change %.
> @brokenwheel said: > And I would note that Leavers were more confident in turning out than Remainers in polls. Something that might not be born out in the figures tomorrow.)
> > They were? The final polls have a statistically even 2016 Leave/Remain certainty to vote. > > And a potential increase in Remain voters does not necessarily contradict that, the 2014 European elections may well have had a majority who would go on to vote Leave and this election becoming more even.
YouGov was 61:58 wasn't it?
63:61 in the final one.
Statistical uncertainty included that's pretty much even.
> @rcs1000 said: > @isam said: > Arent there a lot more Leave districts than Remain? > > +++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > Well yes, but the Remain districts are larger. And there seems to be a correlation between Remain share and increases in turnout. > > Now as I said, the effects are small (and not necessarily incompatible with Brexit Party getting 40%). Nevertheless, from an aggregate vote share perspective, I would expect better turnout in Remain areas to indicate Remainers were turning out. > > Turn it around for a second. If someone said to you, "there are elections next week, what would you like to see in the turnout figures to indicate the Brexit vote was holding up?" > > And I suspect you'd say, "all else being equal I'd hope Brexit areas turnout would hold up better than Remain areas"
I agree.
But everything else doesn’t seem particularly equal this time.
Very few people seem to have said they were going to vote Labour or Tory.
I am with Dan Hannan - I think it’s going to be a Tory wipeout. Two of the most loyal Tories I know both voted TBP...and Nick Palmer mentioned it was difficult to get Labour members to vote Labour...
Arent there a lot more Leave districts than Remain?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well yes, but the Remain districts are larger. And there seems to be a correlation between Remain share and increases in turnout.
Now as I said, the effects are small (and not necessarily incompatible with Brexit Party getting 40%). Nevertheless, from an aggregate vote share perspective, I would expect better turnout in Remain areas to indicate Remainers were turning out.
Turn it around for a second. If someone said to you, "there are elections next week, what would you like to see in the turnout figures to indicate the Brexit vote was holding up?"
And I suspect you'd say, "all else being equal I'd hope Brexit areas turnout would hold up better than Remain areas"
Yes I guess so. On the face of it , things look better for those who want to Remain than Leave
"They sent out Vettel who, ironically, ended up being the one to push his team mate into the elimination zone. Utterly daft. Particularly on a circuit where cars pass with all the ease of a kidney stone. "
I know that die Zeit is a German newspaper but there is something really odd about this map.
For a start the differences in each country are very conspicous. Secondly the German picture is not realistic. The Rhurgebiet (around Dortmund) is light red, Berlin is blue. The area around Hannova and Kassel is as red as Dortmund and the hot bed of socialism in Germany accoring to this map is on the northern border near Holland, which is very rural and generally CDU. In comparison London and South Wales glow red. I'm sure PB-posters with knowledge in other countries can spot other oddities.
@Sean_F said: Turnout is up in most of the Leave districts that have reported so far. It's up by a bit more in most of the Remain districts that have reported so far, but I've not seen anything so far that's inconsistent with the polling.
All this really suggests to me is that people who were OK with the EU didn't set much store by the European elections until the Remain/Leave referendum was held. Rather like the people who make the effort to get on a bus when they hear the bus service is likely to be chopped.
Good evening, everyone. Hope I haven't messed up the Quotes.
I know that die Zeit is a German newspaper but there is something really odd about this map.
For a start the differences in each country are very conspicous. Secondly the German picture is not realistic. The Rhurgebiet (around Dortmund) is light red, Berlin is blue. The area around Hannova and Kassel is as red as Dortmund and the hot bed of socialism in Germany accoring to this map is on the northern border near Holland, which is very rural and generally CDU. In comparison London and South Wales glow red. I'm sure PB-posters with knowledge in other countries can spot other oddities.
The depth of the colour is the percentage of the vote the winning party received. Proportional systems by their nature mean the winning margin is effectively much lower than FPTP. Because the size of the vote of the winning party tends to be smaller the colours are paler in Germany, and other countries that use PR systems. Berlin is blue because the CDU won Berlin at the last federal election. East Frisia, near Holland, is red because it went heavily SPD etc etc.
> I hope all the Tories who are accommodating themselves to an oncoming Boris have the good grace never to utter another word about Labour supporters who have accommodated Corbyn.
-----------------
That's different because, er, reasons.
Because being an anti-Semite or fellow traveller is far worse than being a fool and braggart?
> A lot of seemingly clever analysts on twitter are showing the turnout is very bad for Leave... when I mildly questioned it on here I was patronised to within an inch of my life, but it does seem obvious...
>
> are the Lib Dems a good bet at 40s??
I'm not sure it counts as analysis *before* the results come out.
If the turnout is up in all the Remain places and only steady/down in the Leave ones, it does seem obvious to think the result might not be as the polls forecast. Lots of Remainers are posting them under the header "interesting" ie "I can retract this if it doesnt show what I imply"
Although if you are a leaver in a heavily Remain locality while would you bother to vote in the local elections? But in what some will claim is a proxy referendum perhaps you vote counts?
It’s plausible that an increase in turnout is due to minority Leavers in Remain areas turning out..,
> @Charles said: > > @isam said: > > > A lot of seemingly clever analysts on twitter are showing the turnout is very bad for Leave... when I mildly questioned it on here I was patronised to within an inch of my life, but it does seem obvious... > > > > > > are the Lib Dems a good bet at 40s?? > > > > I'm not sure it counts as analysis *before* the results come out. > > If the turnout is up in all the Remain places and only steady/down in the Leave ones, it does seem obvious to think the result might not be as the polls forecast. Lots of Remainers are posting them under the header "interesting" ie "I can retract this if it doesnt show what I imply" > > Although if you are a leaver in a heavily Remain locality while would you bother to vote in the local elections? But in what some will claim is a proxy referendum perhaps you vote counts? > > It’s plausible that an increase in turnout is due to minority Leavers in Remain areas turning out..,
No one knows.
Remain voters contain leave voters - 40% of London voted leave. The remain vote will be split across 3 or 4 parties - leave 1 or 2 - which of course makes the difference under d'Hondt.
We will see soon enough - the North east should report by 10.30pm. How come London is so slow and won't report until 2 or 3am - if they are counting now? London only has 34 voting areas.
Comments
> @Sean_F said:
> Turnout is up in most of the Leave districts that have reported so far. It's up by a bit more in most of the Remain districts that have reported so far, but I've not seen anything so far that's inconsistent with the polling.
>
> ++++++
>
> I think the maths on this one is relatively simple. If there were two districts that voted in the referendum, one voted 50-0 in favour of Leave, and the other 50-0 in favour of Remain. If in the Leave dictrict, turnout was down 10 people, while in the Remain one it was flat, then you would expect that in aggregate numbers Remain would be doing better.
>
> It is, of course, slightly more complex, as none of the districts are 50-0, one way or another. Nevertheless, on any crude modelling, a situation where Remain-y places are turning out more than Leave-y ones, suggests that Remain will do slightly better.
>
> However, the one thing it's really important to note is that the effects are quite small. By and large Leave-ier districts are up around two percentage points, while Remain are up about five. So that's a roughly three percentage point differential.
>
> Errors from pollsters in sampling are likely to be a bigger issue. (And I would note that Leavers were more confident in turning out than Remainers in polls. Something that might not be born out in the figures tomorrow.)
That is on a macro scale, but what is happening within those districts?
So in Leicester for example, the same pattern may be the case, with leafy Stoneygate turning out, while the Saffron Lane Estate stays at home. My hunch is that the micro differentials will match the macro ones.
And a potential increase in Remain voters does not necessarily contradict that; the 2014 European elections may well have had a majority who would go on to vote Leave, with this election becoming more even.
Arent there a lot more Leave districts than Remain?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well yes, but the Remain districts are larger. And there seems to be a correlation between Remain share and increases in turnout.
Now as I said, the effects are small (and not necessarily incompatible with Brexit Party getting 40%). Nevertheless, from an aggregate vote share perspective, I would expect better turnout in Remain areas to indicate Remainers were turning out.
Turn it around for a second. If someone said to you, "there are elections next week, what would you like to see in the turnout figures to indicate the Brexit vote was holding up?"
And I suspect you'd say, "all else being equal I'd hope Brexit areas turnout would hold up better than Remain areas"
> And I would note that Leavers were more confident in turning out than Remainers in polls. Something that might not be born out in the figures tomorrow.)
>
> They were? The final polls have a statistically even 2016 Leave/Remain certainty to vote.
>
> And a potential increase in Remain voters does not necessarily contradict that, the 2014 European elections may well have had a majority who would go on to vote Leave and this election becoming more even.
YouGov was 61:58 wasn't it?
> > @isam said:
>
> > A lot of seemingly clever analysts on twitter are showing the turnout is very bad for Leave... when I mildly questioned it on here I was patronised to within an inch of my life, but it does seem obvious...
>
> >
>
> > are the Lib Dems a good bet at 40s??
>
>
>
> I'm not sure it counts as analysis *before* the results come out.
>
> If the turnout is up in all the Remain places and only steady/down in the Leave ones, it does seem obvious to think the result might not be as the polls forecast. Lots of Remainers are posting them under the header "interesting" ie "I can retract this if it doesnt show what I imply"
The problem with these turnout based predictions is that it assumes the remain/leave proportion of voters in this election is similar to that in the referendum.
In a bit more detail: the Remain/Leave split in most areas is in the 40-60 range.
The turnout is in the 30-40% range, this leaves too much leeway to have confidence in predictions made using just these two factors. If nationwide incensed leavers were strongly motivated to vote then it would dwarf the effect based on the turnout. If tory leavers wanted to stay at home and remainers determined to get their voices heard then the turnout based predictions would be understimating the LD+Green+Change %.
Statistical uncertainty included that's pretty much even.
> @isam said:
> Arent there a lot more Leave districts than Remain?
>
> +++++++++++++++++++++++++
>
> Well yes, but the Remain districts are larger. And there seems to be a correlation between Remain share and increases in turnout.
>
> Now as I said, the effects are small (and not necessarily incompatible with Brexit Party getting 40%). Nevertheless, from an aggregate vote share perspective, I would expect better turnout in Remain areas to indicate Remainers were turning out.
>
> Turn it around for a second. If someone said to you, "there are elections next week, what would you like to see in the turnout figures to indicate the Brexit vote was holding up?"
>
> And I suspect you'd say, "all else being equal I'd hope Brexit areas turnout would hold up better than Remain areas"
I agree.
But everything else doesn’t seem particularly equal this time.
Very few people seem to have said they were going to vote Labour or Tory.
I am with Dan Hannan - I think it’s going to be a Tory wipeout. Two of the most loyal Tories I know both voted TBP...and Nick Palmer mentioned it was difficult to get Labour members to vote Labour...
"F1: pre-race ramble will be tomorrow."
......................................................................................
Working your way through the dictionary to describe Ferrari ? ..
"They sent out Vettel who, ironically, ended up being the one to push his team mate into the elimination zone. Utterly daft. Particularly on a circuit where cars pass with all the ease of a kidney stone. "
Plausible ish if the measure is "of the electorate"
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132233712693862401
I know that die Zeit is a German newspaper but there is something really odd about this map.
For a start the differences in each country are very conspicous. Secondly the German picture is not realistic. The Rhurgebiet (around Dortmund) is light red, Berlin is blue. The area around Hannova and Kassel is as red as Dortmund and the hot bed of socialism in Germany accoring to this map is on the northern border near Holland, which is very rural and generally CDU. In comparison London and South Wales glow red. I'm sure PB-posters with knowledge in other countries can spot other oddities.
Ouch.
Good evening, everyone. Hope I haven't messed up the Quotes.
It’s plausible that an increase in turnout is due to minority Leavers in Remain areas turning out..,
> > @isam said:
>
> > A lot of seemingly clever analysts on twitter are showing the turnout is very bad for Leave... when I mildly questioned it on here I was patronised to within an inch of my life, but it does seem obvious...
>
> >
>
> > are the Lib Dems a good bet at 40s??
>
>
>
> I'm not sure it counts as analysis *before* the results come out.
>
> If the turnout is up in all the Remain places and only steady/down in the Leave ones, it does seem obvious to think the result might not be as the polls forecast. Lots of Remainers are posting them under the header "interesting" ie "I can retract this if it doesnt show what I imply"
>
> Although if you are a leaver in a heavily Remain locality while would you bother to vote in the local elections? But in what some will claim is a proxy referendum perhaps you vote counts?
>
> It’s plausible that an increase in turnout is due to minority Leavers in Remain areas turning out..,
No one knows.
Remain voters contain leave voters - 40% of London voted leave. The remain vote will be split across 3 or 4 parties - leave 1 or 2 - which of course makes the difference under d'Hondt.
We will see soon enough - the North east should report by 10.30pm. How come London is so slow and won't report until 2 or 3am - if they are counting now? London only has 34 voting areas.