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> @rottenborough said:
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132233712693862401
I know that die Zeit is a German newspaper but there is something really odd about this map.
For a start the differences in each country are very conspicous. Secondly the German picture is not realistic. The Rhurgebiet (around Dortmund) is light red, Berlin is blue. The area around Hannova and Kassel is as red as Dortmund and the hot bed of socialism in Germany accoring to this map is on the northern border near Holland, which is very rural and generally CDU. In comparison London and South Wales glow red. I'm sure PB-posters with knowledge in other countries can spot other oddities.
Russia the hot favourite to reach the final of the Ice Hockey World Championship is beaten by the upstart neighbours. Again. Congratulations to the Finns.
"
England are officially more buggered than a reluctant Turkish conscript."
..........................................................................................................
Reverend Father Ydoethur your intimate knowledge of buggering Turkish conscripts is duly noted.
It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> https://twitter.com/SamF_H/status/1132225296000847873
As in the one who's right, but who the party nutters can't abide?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/30/towards-a-rational-immigration-policy/
> FPT @rcs1000
>
> It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/SamF_H/status/1132225296000847873
>
> As in the one who's right, but who the party nutters can't abide?
They really should be in the same (sane) party.
https://twitter.com/jchristy93/status/1132267059977564165?s=21
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/25/interview-priti-patel-warns-against-dodgy-deals-says-considering/
Draw your own conclusion.
> > @isam said:
>
> > FPT @rcs1000
>
> >
>
> > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
>
>
>
> Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
>
> Sounds like over complicating things to me. If they get 15% it will be millions too
Not at all. The absolute numbers of people that voted for Farage/UKIP will tell us something. I suspect that you just don't like what it will tell us.
Finland. More lakes than land. The only country who, when the Russians say "oh yeah, you and whose army?", can actually point.
> I see Priti Patel is thinking about running - no grubby deals with Brussels being her tag line. According to this lead Telegraph article she also seemingly has the endorsement of Nigel Farage.
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/25/interview-priti-patel-warns-against-dodgy-deals-says-considering/
Priti and the Hard Man are the only purity Brexiteers potentially standing. That has to count for something.
> > @Tabman said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/SamF_H/status/1132225296000847873
> >
> > As in the one who's right, but who the party nutters can't abide?
>
> They really should be in the same (sane) party.
We live in hope!
> > @brendan16 said:
> > I see Priti Patel is thinking about running - no grubby deals with Brussels being her tag line. According to this lead Telegraph article she also seemingly has the endorsement of Nigel Farage.
> >
> > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/25/interview-priti-patel-warns-against-dodgy-deals-says-considering/
>
> Priti and the Hard Man are the only purity Brexiteers potentially standing. That has to count for something.
Priti and the Hard Man sounds like a film of dubious provenance.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Tabman said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/SamF_H/status/1132225296000847873
> > >
> > > As in the one who's right, but who the party nutters can't abide?
> >
> > They really should be in the same (sane) party.
>
> We live in hope!
Yeah, the political genius of Liz's "you're all fucking idiots so vote for me" strategy could really revitalise CUK's fortunes
> > @isam said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > > FPT @rcs1000
> >
> > >
> >
> > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> >
> >
> >
> > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
> >
> > Sounds like over complicating things to me. If they get 15% it will be millions too
>
> Not at all. The absolute numbers of people that voted for Farage/UKIP will tell us something. I suspect that you just don't like what it will tell us.
Given there are, by my count, at least 4 or 5 commited Leavers on here alone who did not vote for Farage I am really not sure what you think it will tell us.
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > > FPT @rcs1000
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
>
> >
>
> > Sounds like over complicating things to me. If they get 15% it will be millions too
>
>
>
> Not at all. The absolute numbers of people that voted for Farage/UKIP will tell us something. I suspect that you just don't like what it will tell us.
>
> And what of the absolute numbers of remainers?
Not really the point, what we are being told in some quarters is that leavers are so angry that Brexit has not happened that civil disorder is on the cards. The reality will be that 85% - 90% of voters have ignored Farage, the Brexit Party and UKIP.
Or of course if some predictions come about it could be some LD luminary v Farage.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > > > @isam said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > FPT @rcs1000
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Sounds like over complicating things to me. If they get 15% it will be millions too
> >
> >
> >
> > Not at all. The absolute numbers of people that voted for Farage/UKIP will tell us something. I suspect that you just don't like what it will tell us.
> >
> > And what of the absolute numbers of remainers?
>
> Not really the point, what we are being told in some quarters is that leavers are so angry that Brexit has not happened that civil disorder is on the cards. The reality will be that 85% - 90% of voters have ignored Farage, the Brexit Party and UKIP.
Not a conclusion that it is in any way possible to make.
> > @isam said:
>
> > FPT @rcs1000
>
> >
>
> > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
>
>
>
> Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
>
> Sounds like over complicating things to me. If they get 15% it will be millions too
About 5 million. Just short of the revoke petition... ;-)
> Aggh, I got caught out by the new thread, so reposting
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132233712693862401
>
> I know that die Zeit is a German newspaper but there is something really odd about this map.
>
> For a start the differences in each country are very conspicous. Secondly the German picture is not realistic. The Rhurgebiet (around Dortmund) is light red, Berlin is blue. The area around Hannova and Kassel is as red as Dortmund and the hot bed of socialism in Germany accoring to this map is on the northern border near Holland, which is very rural and generally CDU. In comparison London and South Wales glow red. I'm sure PB-posters with knowledge in other countries can spot other oddities.
Yes, I agree. I think they've drawn the areas quite wide and they've taken the largest party without calculating the various smaller parties - e.g. Berlin is blue because the CDU pipped the strongest votes of Socialists, Greens and ex-Communists, but anyone would say that in combination that's a very left-wing region. Conversely Greece is shown as deep red because Syriza pipped the oppodsition last time. It's an interesting idea but needs work!
> FPT Don't very often re-post from previous thread but seeing how little I've posted at all lately, I'm indulging myself. @Sean_F said:
> Turnout is up in most of the Leave districts that have reported so far. It's up by a bit more in most of the Remain districts that have reported so far, but I've not seen anything so far that's inconsistent with the polling.
>
>
> All this really suggests to me is that people who were OK with the EU didn't set much store by the European elections until the Remain/Leave referendum was held. Rather like the people who make the effort to get on a bus when they hear the bus service is likely to be chopped.
>
> Good evening, everyone. Hope I haven't messed up the Quotes.
On the contrary. How did you manage to get traditional grey/former quotes in your post, while the rest of us struggle with bloody >>>s?
> > @OllyT said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > >
> > > > > @isam said:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > FPT @rcs1000
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Sounds like over complicating things to me. If they get 15% it will be millions too
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Not at all. The absolute numbers of people that voted for Farage/UKIP will tell us something. I suspect that you just don't like what it will tell us.
> > >
> > > And what of the absolute numbers of remainers?
> >
> > Not really the point, what we are being told in some quarters is that leavers are so angry that Brexit has not happened that civil disorder is on the cards. The reality will be that 85% - 90% of voters have ignored Farage, the Brexit Party and UKIP.
>
> Not a conclusion that it is in any way possible to make.
Of course it is. If 85-90% of the electorate haven't voted for Farage or UKIP then the anger out there is being vastly overestimated by those with a political interest in overestimating it.
Hunt or Javid needed to do a Portillo 2001 or Davis 2005 I think and rack up lots of MPs endorsements early on to have a good chance of making the last two as they were both Remainers and they do not seem to have done that so far
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @OllyT said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > > @isam said:
> > > >
> > > > > > @isam said:
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > FPT @rcs1000
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Sounds like over complicating things to me. If they get 15% it will be millions too
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Not at all. The absolute numbers of people that voted for Farage/UKIP will tell us something. I suspect that you just don't like what it will tell us.
> > > >
> > > > And what of the absolute numbers of remainers?
> > >
> > > Not really the point, what we are being told in some quarters is that leavers are so angry that Brexit has not happened that civil disorder is on the cards. The reality will be that 85% - 90% of voters have ignored Farage, the Brexit Party and UKIP.
> >
> > Not a conclusion that it is in any way possible to make.
>
> Of course it is. If 85-90% of the electorate haven't voted for Farage or UKIP then the anger out there is being vastly overestimated by those with a political interest in overestimating it.
I should take a break till you know the result. As a remainer even I feel you're embarrassing yourself.
> > > Not really the point, what we are being told in some quarters is that leavers are so angry that Brexit has not happened that civil disorder is on the cards. The reality will be that 85% - 90% of voters have ignored Farage, the Brexit Party and UKIP.
> >
> > Not a conclusion that it is in any way possible to make.
>
> Of course it is. If 85-90% of the electorate haven't voted for Farage or UKIP then the anger out there is being vastly overestimated by those with a political interest in overestimating it.
-----------------
And presumably the same is true of support for a second referendum based on your test.
> https://twitter.com/SamF_H/status/1132225296000847873
A Liz Kendall v Rory Stewart general election would be quite interesting and as both are centrists would not have too much at stake but neither could win their party membership vote
> Waiting for the results tomorrow feels like Waiting For Godot. In fact I might watch the play tonight on YouTube to pass the time.
Who's Godot?
Plays full back for QPR.
He doesn't.
-- The Sweeney.
> > @OllyT said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @OllyT said:
> > > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > > > @isam said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > > @isam said:
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > > FPT @rcs1000
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Sounds like over complicating things to me. If they get 15% it will be millions too
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Not at all. The absolute numbers of people that voted for Farage/UKIP will tell us something. I suspect that you just don't like what it will tell us.
> > > > >
> > > > > And what of the absolute numbers of remainers?
> > > >
> > > > Not really the point, what we are being told in some quarters is that leavers are so angry that Brexit has not happened that civil disorder is on the cards. The reality will be that 85% - 90% of voters have ignored Farage, the Brexit Party and UKIP.
> > >
> > > Not a conclusion that it is in any way possible to make.
> >
> > Of course it is. If 85-90% of the electorate haven't voted for Farage or UKIP then the anger out there is being vastly overestimated by those with a political interest in overestimating it.
>
> I should take a break till you know the result. As a remainer even I feel you're embarrassing yourself.
In what way is pointing out that Brexit Party + UKIP are only likely to get the votes of 10-15% of the electorate embarrassing myself? Do you see that as a runaway success?
> Aggh, I got caught out by the new thread, so reposting
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132233712693862401
>
> I know that die Zeit is a German newspaper but there is something really odd about this map.
>
> For a start the differences in each country are very conspicous. Secondly the German picture is not realistic. The Rhurgebiet (around Dortmund) is light red, Berlin is blue. The area around Hannova and Kassel is as red as Dortmund and the hot bed of socialism in Germany accoring to this map is on the northern border near Holland, which is very rural and generally CDU. In comparison London and South Wales glow red. I'm sure PB-posters with knowledge in other countries can spot other oddities.
Austria, Hungary, Bavaria and Hungary and southern England are the most conservative parts of Europe on that map at the moment, Spain, Portugal, Romania and Sweden, London and NorthWest England the most left wing.
The far right does best in Northern Italy and Poland, the far left does best in Greece.
Liberals do best in France and Denmark, Estonia and the Netherlands.
(Worth noting that ">"s are actually the time-honoured way of quoting on the internet, but when we were kids we knew to trim all except the lines that we were replying to, and it was all fields round here etc. etc.)
> If we could trust MPs' public declarations then Graham Brady would have received the 48 letters needed to no-confidence Theresa May back in 2017 and almost every week since.
-------------------
I suppose he'll only ever get 47 nominations for his own leadership campaign.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > > @OllyT said:
>
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
>
> > > > > @isam said:
>
> > > >
>
> > > > > > @isam said:
>
> > > >
>
> > > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > > > > FPT @rcs1000
>
> oks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the lFarage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > > > Sounds like over complicating things to me. If they get 15% it will be millions too
>
> > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Not at all. The absolute numbers of people that voted for Farage/UKIP will tell us something. I suspect that you just don't like what it will tell us.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > And what of the absolute numbers of remainers?
>
> > >
>
> > > Not really the point, what we are being told in some quarters is that leavers are so angry that Brexit has not happened that civil disorder is on the cards. The reality will be that 85% - 90% of voters have ignored Farage, the Brexit Party and UKIP.
>
> >
>
> > Not a conclusion that it is in any way possible to make.
>
>
>
> Of course it is. If 85-90% of the electorate haven't voted for Farage or UKIP then the anger out there is being vastly overestimated by those with a political interest in overestimating it.
>
> We already know only about 40% of the public voted, so you’re saying that if Farage wins with 40% of the vote, that will prove you right as 84% of the public didn’t vote for him?
Exactly and my point is that it does matter how many people actually went out to vote for Farage and UKIP. It gives us an indication of how many people are incensed that we haven't left the EU 3 years down the line. If you were really peed off with the Remainer parliament blah blah surely you would have got off your backside on Thursday and voted for Farage or UKIP. The fact that about 90% didn't tells us something.
> In what way is pointing out that Brexit Party + UKIP are only likely to get the votes of 10-15% of the electorate embarrassing myself? Do you see that as a runaway success?
-------------
It is a meaningless number. What are you claiming?
That 7 million people are going to be ready to do violence if they don't get their way? Jesus Christ I hope not because that would be something quite extraordinary akin to outright civil war.
That those 7 million people represent all those who would be unhappy and feel that democracy had failed if we don't leave? There is no basis for claiming that this number represents all those who would feel betrayed given that there are a very large number of people who chose not to vote for Farage even though they are committed leavers. I believe Sean Fear, Casino Royal and myself are counted amongst those just on here. The anger at reversing the vote will go far beyond just those who voted for Farage or UKIP.
That 7 million represents the total number who still want Brexit? Again a ridiculous figure. Given that it looks likely that the numbers voting for Leave and Remain parties will be roughly equal one might say the same about those wanting to repeat the vote or just revoke. Again it would be ridiculous to make such a claim.
So really when it comes down to it no one has any real idea what conclusions we can draw from the Euro results. Partisan idiots on each side will make claims but in the end it really is meaningless. Much like these elections themselves.
>
> Exactly and my point is that it does matter how many people actually went out to vote for Farage and UKIP. It gives us an indication of how many people are incensed that we haven't left the EU 3 years down the line. If you were really peed off with the Remainer parliament blah blah surely you would have got off your backside on Thursday and voted for Farage or UKIP. The fact that about 90% didn't tells us something.
---------------------
If you were really peed off with the prospect of Brexit surely you would have got off your backside on Thursday and voted for a remain party. The fact that at least 60% of the electorate (given a 40% turnout) didn't tells us something.
We could play this game all night but I propose that we don't!
> https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1132185103533314048?s=20
The Lib Dems don't need this feeble little outfit. They'd be better off talking to the Greens.
https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1132346050084319232?s=20
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1132348030139736076?s=20
https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1132349026437935104?s=20
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1132185103533314048?s=20
>
> The Lib Dems don't need this feeble little outfit. They'd be better off talking to the Greens.
True but I don't think the Greens would touch the LDs after the Coalition
> > @OllyT said:
>
> >
> > Exactly and my point is that it does matter how many people actually went out to vote for Farage and UKIP. It gives us an indication of how many people are incensed that we haven't left the EU 3 years down the line. If you were really peed off with the Remainer parliament blah blah surely you would have got off your backside on Thursday and voted for Farage or UKIP. The fact that about 90% didn't tells us something.
> ---------------------
> If you were really peed off with the prospect of Brexit surely you would have got off your backside on Thursday and voted for a remain party. The fact that at least 60% of the electorate (given a 40% turnout) didn't tells us something.
>
> We could play this game all night but I propose that we don't!
>
I think far less people are exercised by Brexit either way than we are led to believe. Where Brexit goes from here hangs in the balance and Thursday's vote was the last (possibly only) opportunity for Joe public to try to influence events and 60% of us couldn't even be bothered to vote
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1132185103533314048?s=20
> >
> > The Lib Dems don't need this feeble little outfit. They'd be better off talking to the Greens.
>
> True but I don't think the Greens would touch the LDs after the Coalition
Good grief - I agree with you!
Martinque: 5% (+0.7 compared to 2014 at the same hour)
Guadaloupe: 5.6% (+2.2)
Guyane: 5,7% (+2.5)
St Pierre et Miquelon: 13.1% (+8.2)
Saint Martin: 7%
St Barthélemy: data not yet arrived
Czech Republic: final turnout estimated in the 20-25% range. It was 18% in 2014.
Malta: 32% voted at 2pm. Polls open until 10pm
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1132185103533314048?s=20
> >
> > The Lib Dems don't need this feeble little outfit. They'd be better off talking to the Greens.
>
> True but I don't think the Greens would touch the LDs after the Coalition
JH-B is an apology for a journalist. She can't write and she isn't funny. I'm wondering why we're being treated to one of her tweets?
> Off topic - looks like Labour has a big day of events in Leeds next Saturday. Jezza plus half the Shadow Cabinet in town.
If you see Jezza, tell him I'll be at Epsom watching the Derby.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1132185103533314048?s=20
> > >
> > > The Lib Dems don't need this feeble little outfit. They'd be better off talking to the Greens.
> >
> > True but I don't think the Greens would touch the LDs after the Coalition
>
> Good grief - I agree with you!
First time for everything!
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/05/25/philip-may-winces-as-he-watches-pm-in-tears/
A propos nothing at all, Mrs Stodge and I visited St Martin (or Sint Maarten) a few years back. The island is split between a Dutch part (which is basically like any other bit of America) and a French part. The main town in the French bit is Marigot whose promenade reminds me of the Cote D'Azur dumped onto the Caribbean.
Lovely place - the most aggressive Police I have ever seen. Some local had parked with his wheels up on the kerb. The Police van pulled up - out jumped three extremely large men and I thought they were going to beat up the poor driver. He got the message, accepted his ticket and drove off.
Fantastic café on the promenade - superb coffee and pastries.
> https://twitter.com/montie/status/1132280077339824129?s=20
> https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1132346050084319232?s=20
> https://twitter.com/montie/status/1132348030139736076?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1132349026437935104?s=20
I would suggest he is hinting that a party polling so badly with under 50s needs to look a bit more to the future and less to the glory days of the 1950s. If they can't understand that, how do they are going to cope with trade deals, tariffs, and international geopolitics.
They are already seen by a lot of young people as the party of going backwards but do not realise it.
> > @isam said:
> > FPT @rcs1000
> >
> > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
>
> Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
10-15% of the electorate is many millions of people.
> Off topic - looks like Labour has a big day of events in Leeds next Saturday. Jezza plus half the Shadow Cabinet in town.
Better than a play-off winning bus parade !
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132324649554124802?s=20
People who vote for European integration likelier to die young?
That's what I read from the figures...
>
> People who vote for European integration likelier to die young?
>
> That's what I read from the figures...
--------
Or that the British policy of enlargement has proved effective in making French people less keen on integration.
> > @OllyT said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > FPT @rcs1000
> > >
> > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> >
> > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
>
> 10-15% of the electorate is many millions of people.
On the current electorate, 15% is 7 million people.
> > @OllyT said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > FPT @rcs1000
> > >
> > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> >
> > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
>
> 10-15% of the electorate is many millions of people.
Millions, yes. Many millions, no.
> > @OllyT said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > FPT @rcs1000
> > >
> > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> >
> > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
>
> 10-15% of the electorate is many millions of people.
Is it not possible that there are quite a few Brexit and UKIP voters who are not seething at betrayal? After all polling suggests 3% of them want to remain!
> (Worth noting that ">"s are actually the time-honoured way of quoting on the internet, but when we were kids we knew to trim all except the lines that we were replying to, and it was all fields round here etc. etc.)
Genuine LOL of recognition there.
> > @TudorRose said:
>
> > > @OllyT said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> > > Exactly and my point is that it does matter how many people actually went out to vote for Farage and UKIP. It gives us an indication of how many people are incensed that we haven't left the EU 3 years down the line. If you were really peed off with the Remainer parliament blah blah surely you would have got off your backside on Thursday and voted for Farage or UKIP. The fact that about 90% didn't tells us something.
>
> > ---------------------
>
> > If you were really peed off with the prospect of Brexit surely you would have got off your backside on Thursday and voted for a remain party. The fact that at least 60% of the electorate (given a 40% turnout) didn't tells us something.
>
> >
>
> > We could play this game all night but I propose that we don't!
>
> >
>
>
>
> I think far less people are exercised by Brexit either way than we are led to believe. Where Brexit goes from here hangs in the balance and Thursday's vote was the last (possibly only) opportunity for Joe public to try to influence events and 60% of us couldn't even be bothered to vote
>
> Your point seems more valid when you apply it across the whole board. Guessing how many voted for the probable winner then knocking them for not getting enough seems a bit one sided.
Fair enough but I was making the comment in the context of the "Farage sweeping the nation on wave of Brexit betrayal" line that is being spun by sections of the media. He is doing no such thing, only about 10% of voters will have voted for his party.
We went to Peterborough this afternoon, and in the city centre saw a small UKIP stand manned by two old geezers (one of whom was wearing the worst Union Jack jacket imaginable (*)). Then, in the main shopping centre, there were a bunch of teenagers handing out Brexit Party literature - acting more like they belonged to some form of evangelical outing than a political party.
There were no other parties visible. This is, of course, immediately after the European Elections, but there is a by-election coming up in Peterborough.
(*) And no, this is not an unpatriotic thing to say. It wasn't that he was wrapping himself in the flag; it was that it looked terrible.
> > @OllyT said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > FPT @rcs1000
> > >
> > > It looks better for Remain than Leave on the face of it, turnout wise. I agree I'd be happier if the increases were reversed
> >
> > Re your comment on the last thread I estimated that Farage and UKIP will get the votes of 10-15% of the ELECTORATE (not the vote) and if this is the case it doesn't really bear out the idea that there are millions of people out there seething at a Brexit "betrayal" as some would try and have us believe.
>
> 10-15% of the electorate is many millions of people.
Yes but we have known since the dawn of time that 10-15% of the electorate are "irate" about the EU. It is telling us nothing new.
It may not indicate how they will do in a general election but it is by far the fastest rise of a party that lacked any prior Parliamentary representation that I know of in British politics before
@noneoftheabove
3% is a miniscule number and probably reflects those generally disaffected with Westminster in general. It pales into insignificance with the 25% of Labour voters thereabouts who voted leave who certainly won't be 'seething' if we leave the EU.
> How many 6 week old parties in their first national election in this country have won lets say 4 million votes or more whilst likely beating every other party?
>
> It may not indicate how they will do in a general election but it is by far the fastest rise of a party that lacked any prior Parliamentary representation that I know of in British politics before
---------
Their brand recognition was helped by having their name mentioned 10 trillion times in the last three years.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/montie/status/1132280077339824129?s=20
> > https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1132346050084319232?s=20
> > https://twitter.com/montie/status/1132348030139736076?s=20
> >
> > https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1132349026437935104?s=20
>
> I would suggest he is hinting that a party polling so badly with under 50s needs to look a bit more to the future and less to the glory days of the 1950s. If they can't understand that, how do they are going to cope with trade deals, tariffs, and international geopolitics.
>
> They are already seen by a lot of young people as the party of going backwards but do not realise it.
We need to go upwards into the future of going forwards to the brightly lit sunlit uplands. We will soar across this land, our feet firmly on the ground, honouring our roots which go deep into the ever changing tides of history.
From Merthyr to Methil, we honour a thousand years of British culture, the English language we have given to the world, our writers like Beckett, Miller and Wilde.
From the peaks of Norfolk to the wide Grampian plains, from the Wiltshire beaches to the forests of Shetland: we will take our message to the British people, that this once-great country is the greatest country on earth.
> Anecdote:
>
>
>
> We went to Peterborough this afternoon, and in the city centre saw a small UKIP stand manned by two old geezers (one of whom was wearing the worst Union Jack jacket imaginable (*)). Then, in the main shopping centre, there were a bunch of teenagers handing out Brexit Party literature - acting more like they belonged to some form of evangelical outing than a political party.
>
>
>
> There were no other parties visible. This is, of course, immediately after the European Elections, but there is a by-election coming up in Peterborough.
>
>
>
> (*) And no, this is not an unpatriotic thing to say. It wasn't that he was wrapping himself in the flag; it was that it looked terrible.
>
> How much did you spend on milk shakes?
Nowt. That's really not my sort of scene.
There was a marked difference between the old-geezer UKIP and the happy-clappy youngsters of TBP.
...and were branded failures by people who thought ChangeUK were the second coming the day they formed?
"One thing's for sure tomorrow night - The Brexit Party will struggle to match the 16,141,241 votes that Remain got at the referendum."
.......................................................................................................
Mike do you think the LibDems will edge towards the BREXIT 17 million ?? .... just asking for a friend in the dungeons !!
> @MikeSmithson said:
>
> "One thing's for sure tomorrow night - The Brexit Party will struggle to match the 16,141,241 votes that Remain got at the referendum."
>
> .......................................................................................................
>
> Mike do you think the LibDems will edge towards the BREXIT 17 million ?? .... just asking for a friend in the dungeons !!
>
>
Will TBP beat the revoke petition?