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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737
    eek said:


    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.

    Yep - the Tories in Scotland would be wiped out again - as probably would Labour.
    For the rest of the country the question is - will northern Labour Leave seats vote for Boris, will Nigel split that vote or will Labour keep enough to retain the seat.
    The Tories would still get the 25-28% who are both pro-Union and anti-EU, in Scotland.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    What are the timings of the voting tomorrow?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,487

    kjohnw said:

    Foxy said:

    I reckon the public do not like unnecessary elections, punishing those that call one, and that was a major factor in May's fiasco of 2017.

    By the results of EU elections they are angry that democracy is not delivering the result of their wishes in 2016, a new PM has the right to get a mandate especially when parliament is being so obstructive to delivering brexit
    And that is the election campaign. Boris will be PM next month. He will have a meeting with Barnier who will tell him the deal is the deal is the deal. So the idea that he starts to renegotiate in September is surely nonsense as there is nothing to renegotiate and no appetite for further delay.

    Boris is also sat at the head of a minority government, very minority when it comes to Brexit. So an election it surely has to be: kill Farage and Corbyn in one go. Why do we need the Brexit Party when the Tories want no deal? Why do we need the Labour Party when the LibDems want remain?

    17th or 24th October for the election, with Boris winning and the UK crashing out to competing leave celebrations / remain protests in the street.
    It will be better than any Halloween horror movie!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,000
    Brand Yookay is broken abroad.

    That is going to have very serious consequences for society on these islands, and is going to be quite devastating for the finances of especially the weaker groups in society over coming decades.

    Civil unrest looms.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,496

    Long but useful thread on movements in Remain/Leave support:

    That is interesting.
    People in work have trended remain; retirees leave.
    And non voters have trended remain massively.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,000
    Sean_F said:

    eek said:


    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.

    Yep - the Tories in Scotland would be wiped out again - as probably would Labour.
    For the rest of the country the question is - will northern Labour Leave seats vote for Boris, will Nigel split that vote or will Labour keep enough to retain the seat.
    The Tories would still get the 25-28% who are both pro-Union and anti-EU, in Scotland.
    That’s a keeper!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,487
    Scott_P said:

    nichomar said:

    Do we know if com res primed the respondents first on the candidates perceived brexit position or just asked by name?


    Thanks very interesting explains a lot so BJ fans carry on please enjoying your hype
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    edited June 2019

    Brand Yookay is broken abroad.

    That is going to have very serious consequences for society on these islands, and is going to be quite devastating for the finances of especially the weaker groups in society over coming decades.

    Civil unrest looms.
    Ravings of bitter Remainiac civil servants.

    Let's see if it impacts visitor numbers to Britain, then we'll know if brand UK is damaged. My home city of Liverpool shows no decrease in visitor numbers since 2016 - we can't build hotels fast enough to keep up with demand. City heaving with Spanish tourists.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,392
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder how ComRes will feel about their surveys being described as misleading and unacademic.
    I can believe the ComRes figures are accurate. Yes, they’re evidently batshit insane, but large parts of the Conservative party have gone batshit insane so that tallies.

    Where it falls down is then putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus and pretending it means anything. EC is only ever a fun distraction at any time outside a GE campaign, but post the emergence of the Brexit Party, it’s entirely guesswork rather than anything particularly founded on repeatable voting patterns.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    What are the timings of the voting tomorrow?

    I think it's voting ends noon, results announced 1pm.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    What are the timings of the voting tomorrow?

    First ballot Thursday 10am to noon; results expected around 1pm.
    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/06/timetable-for-the-parliamentary-stage-of-the-conservative-leadership-election.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,755

    Brand Yookay is broken abroad.

    That is going to have very serious consequences for society on these islands, and is going to be quite devastating for the finances of especially the weaker groups in society over coming decades.

    Civil unrest looms.
    Ravings of bitter Remainiac civil servants.

    Let's see if it impacts visitor numbers to Britain, then we'll know if brand UK is damaged. My home city of Liverpool shows no decrease in visitor numbers since 2016 - we can't build hotels fast enough to keep up with demand. City heaving with Spanish tourists.
    Brexit has crashed the £ making the UK a cheap destination for tourists
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    edited June 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Brand Yookay is broken abroad.

    That is going to have very serious consequences for society on these islands, and is going to be quite devastating for the finances of especially the weaker groups in society over coming decades.

    Civil unrest looms.
    Ravings of bitter Remainiac civil servants.

    Let's see if it impacts visitor numbers to Britain, then we'll know if brand UK is damaged. My home city of Liverpool shows no decrease in visitor numbers since 2016 - we can't build hotels fast enough to keep up with demand. City heaving with Spanish tourists.
    Brexit has crashed the £ making the UK a cheap destination for tourists
    "Crashed"? What, like the Zimbabwean Pound?

    Oh you mean it went down a little after it had gone up pre-ref.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,755
    edited June 2019
    nichomar said:

    kjohnw said:

    Foxy said:

    I reckon the public do not like unnecessary elections, punishing those that call one, and that was a major factor in May's fiasco of 2017.

    By the results of EU elections they are angry that democracy is not delivering the result of their wishes in 2016, a new PM has the right to get a mandate especially when parliament is being so obstructive to delivering brexit
    And that is the election campaign. Boris will be PM next month. He will have a meeting with Barnier who will tell him the deal is the deal is the deal. So the idea that he starts to renegotiate in September is surely nonsense as there is nothing to renegotiate and no appetite for further delay.

    Boris is also sat at the head of a minority government, very minority when it comes to Brexit. So an election it surely has to be: kill Farage and Corbyn in one go. Why do we need the Brexit Party when the Tories want no deal? Why do we need the Labour Party when the LibDems want remain?

    17th or 24th October for the election, with Boris winning and the UK crashing out to competing leave celebrations / remain protests in the street.
    It will be better than any Halloween horror movie!
    The best scenario for Boris is that he goes (or is forced to go) for a referendum and the voters relieve him of his biggest problem.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    What are the timings of the voting tomorrow?

    10am to 12 noon for votes. Results are planned to be announced at 1pm.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 7,908

    IanB2 said:

    Brand Yookay is broken abroad.

    That is going to have very serious consequences for society on these islands, and is going to be quite devastating for the finances of especially the weaker groups in society over coming decades.

    Civil unrest looms.
    Ravings of bitter Remainiac civil servants.

    Let's see if it impacts visitor numbers to Britain, then we'll know if brand UK is damaged. My home city of Liverpool shows no decrease in visitor numbers since 2016 - we can't build hotels fast enough to keep up with demand. City heaving with Spanish tourists.
    Brexit has crashed the £ making the UK a cheap destination for tourists
    "Crashed"? What, like the Zimbabwean Pound?

    Oh you mean it went down a little after it had gone up pre-ref.
    Would you be happy if your salary was decreased 20%?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,654
    *raises an eyebrow at people taking the polling seriously*
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    IanB2 said:

    Brand Yookay is broken abroad.

    That is going to have very serious consequences for society on these islands, and is going to be quite devastating for the finances of especially the weaker groups in society over coming decades.

    Civil unrest looms.
    Ravings of bitter Remainiac civil servants.

    Let's see if it impacts visitor numbers to Britain, then we'll know if brand UK is damaged. My home city of Liverpool shows no decrease in visitor numbers since 2016 - we can't build hotels fast enough to keep up with demand. City heaving with Spanish tourists.
    Brexit has crashed the £ making the UK a cheap destination for tourists
    Honestly not really. It’s more that the EU economies have since 2015 finally begun to recover (despite the best efforts of Germany).

    Having said that anyone who posts with a photograph of, I think, Enoch Powell, is probably an unpleasant piece of work.
  • IanB2 said:

    Brand Yookay is broken abroad.

    That is going to have very serious consequences for society on these islands, and is going to be quite devastating for the finances of especially the weaker groups in society over coming decades.

    Civil unrest looms.
    Ravings of bitter Remainiac civil servants.

    Let's see if it impacts visitor numbers to Britain, then we'll know if brand UK is damaged. My home city of Liverpool shows no decrease in visitor numbers since 2016 - we can't build hotels fast enough to keep up with demand. City heaving with Spanish tourists.
    Brexit has crashed the £ making the UK a cheap destination for tourists
    "Crashed"? What, like the Zimbabwean Pound?

    Oh you mean it went down a little after it had gone up pre-ref.
    Would you be happy if your salary was decreased 20%?
    Are you advocating Soviet-style currency controls?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,975
    Johnson keeps picking up endorsements, one source now says he's at 80, but Shadsy is slow to update the 1st Round Votes brackets. I've topped up on the 90-99 and 100+ brackets.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sky News - Truss not committing to Boris appearing in tv debates

    Just part of a car crash interview ....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,654
    Mr. W, when's the first debate? Do we know yet?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,597
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Truss not committing to Boris appearing in tv debates

    Just part of a car crash interview ....

    The Tory Trollop and the Tory Sinner! :D
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,975

    Mr. W, when's the first debate? Do we know yet?

    16 June, on Channel 4. All remaining candidates.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#Television_debates
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,487
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Truss not committing to Boris appearing in tv debates

    Just part of a car crash interview ....

    The Tory Trollop and the Tory Sinner! :D
    Best quote “Boris won’t be a moralizer” shows how with him as leader it’s all going to be about his past lies and screw ups bring him on.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,949

    What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

    A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

    Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

    It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.
    Very true.

    And losing Grieve, Letwin etc is the cherry on top.

    Then, for me as a Leaver/Ukipper since 2007, it'll be project complete.
    You still are a UKIPPER and any idea you are a conservative is for the birds
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. W, when's the first debate? Do we know yet?

    Sky News debate "in the next few weeks" when final two determined.

    BBC -18th June BBC1 8:00pm

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48547524
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705
    edited June 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

    70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

    It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

    It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

    Yes, just like in 2017...

    Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

    If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.
    You must be bonkers.. you'd rather have Corbyn?
    Corbyn is awful, but nothing really to fear when Boris is going for no deal. Fortunately my area is a safe seat so it matters not who I vote for. I dont need to vote for either and it wont contribute to the other winning.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,936

    What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

    A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

    Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

    It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.
    The Tories have already lost Soubry, Allen and Wollaston. Grieve, Boles, Lee and Gauke will probably fail to be renominated at a GE as Tories as deselection attempts run their course, and there will probably be others. So a significant chunk of the "Grieve wing" is going to be lost whatever they do.
  • nichomar said:

    Do we know if com res primed the respondents first on the candidates perceived brexit position or just asked by name?

    That wouldn't matter as far as Boris is concerned, because his supporters will believe what they want to.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,921

    I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

    I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

    The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

    Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.

    I am not sure he has much more to learn than his rivals. What he seems to lack is any kind of hinterland within the Tory party. That's what he needs to build over the next year to 18 months.

    he seems to have had the best campaign, but winning over PB posters, twitter commentariat and Guardian readers does not make him PM...I see him being a DPM or Foreign Sec if the eventual winner has any sense. he may just bring younger/urban voters back in - though he is no Cameron.
    Might be a nice guy but shows the dearth of talent in the Tories and politicians in general. Clueless toff.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,875

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
    The Comres poll is simultaneously incredible and plausible. The BP share of the six candidates is inversely correlated with the likelihood of not leaving under their leadership.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,921

    Surely the parties are now commissioning constituency by constituency polls like that YouGov one last election that was incredibly accurate?

    Undoubtedly.

    Ruthie will have to order a whole new batch of breeks.
    They better be watertight
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,654
    Cheers, Mr. Quincel, and Mr. W.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    So tomorrow presumably Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab and Sajid Javid clear the hurdle. Do we think anyone else is going to get a sympathy shag?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,324

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
    Rory even has the Brexit Party as largest party.

    Astonishing that every candidate bar Boris would see Corbyn as PM in a minority Labour Government with only Raab even able to make the Tories the largest party and get the Brexit Party under 50 seats but Boris wins a Tory landslide as the Brexit Party collapses.

    Notable too that Gove, Javid and Rory get even fewer Tory seats than now on that poll, the Tories might as well keep May than make one of those 3 leader
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,936
    Surely the thread header should have been the ComRes poll that emerged last night, rather than just a bland melange of today's headlines?

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/12/rory-stewart-will-destroy-conservative-party/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    When was that conducted.

    Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

    And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..
    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.
    Yes, no dealers are abandoning Scotland. Boris and co really dont care about the UK at all.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,000
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    The shocking thing is that Rory is just making obvious, mainstream, Conservative points, clearly and without equivocation. That is shocking because we have become so inured to fudge, fantasy and extremism that the moderate, sensible voices have been cowed into silence, as indeed they have in Labour.

    Conservatism is Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. That is what the massive surge to BXP has taught us.
    In that case we need a new party to take over the great Conservative traditions of pragmatism, sound finances, opportunity, and respect for ourselves, for others and for our history. The Big Tent Party, anyone?
    Rory could have made that pitch for the Conservatives, with a moderate Brexit.

    He didn’t, so he’ll lose.
    Rory does support a moderate Brexit. That you don't recognize it as such only goes to show how difficult his job is.
    Bullocks. I’ve written over this thread and previous that I do think he’s a Conservative and I support both his Brexit vision and Theresa May’s Deal.

    But, I understand my party and he’s getting his tone and pitch wrong.

    Try again. And think next time before you default to shooting the messenger.
    How do you talk a death cult out of their mania?
    You appeal to the legacy of their party, their emotions, their pride and need for a winner, and their well rooted patriotism. A vision for the UK they love for the 21st Century.
    They don’t have a vision for the UK. They have a vision for provincial southern England based around introverted chauvinism. Everyone else can get stuffed.
    @AlastairMeeks unfortunately makes a valid point. Patriotism depends on the patria, and one major disappointment for me since 2014 is the discovery that for many Conservatives the patria is England, or England and Wales, or some nebulous Anglosphere. Scotland and Northern Ireland are valuable and should be fought for not discarded. I hate to get all Tywin Lannister, but the family must survive.
    A family is built on mutual love, care and trust.

    Just remember all those fine sentiments from Better Together in the final week of the first independence referendum. All thrown out the window the moment No won the vote. That is how you destroy love, care and trust. Textbook example.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,892

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
    Probably be true, but I am deeply sceptical of this poll.

    Plus even if true it is only because they believe Boris will WTO us on 31st Oct.

    What happens when he doesn't? Or more likely can't, as he is not PM?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737
    nichomar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Truss not committing to Boris appearing in tv debates

    Just part of a car crash interview ....

    The Tory Trollop and the Tory Sinner! :D
    Best quote “Boris won’t be a moralizer” shows how with him as leader it’s all going to be about his past lies and screw ups bring him on.
    By any objective measure, Boris Johnson is an appalling person.

    But, that's already priced in to peoples' voting intentions. Going on about what an appalling person he is won't change votes.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,146
    edited June 2019

    Surely the thread header should have been the ComRes poll that emerged last night, rather than just a bland melange of today's headlines?

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/12/rory-stewart-will-destroy-conservative-party/

    ComRes was the pollster that had the biggest CON leads in the run up to GE2017. 25% at one stage and even its final poll had a CON double digit lead. Notice as well that the Telegraph don't lead on it. Also I like to see the detailed data.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,755
    matt said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brand Yookay is broken abroad.

    That is going to have very serious consequences for society on these islands, and is going to be quite devastating for the finances of especially the weaker groups in society over coming decades.

    Civil unrest looms.
    Ravings of bitter Remainiac civil servants.

    Let's see if it impacts visitor numbers to Britain, then we'll know if brand UK is damaged. My home city of Liverpool shows no decrease in visitor numbers since 2016 - we can't build hotels fast enough to keep up with demand. City heaving with Spanish tourists.
    Brexit has crashed the £ making the UK a cheap destination for tourists
    Honestly not really. It’s more that the EU economies have since 2015 finally begun to recover (despite the best efforts of Germany).

    Having said that anyone who posts with a photograph of, I think, Enoch Powell, is probably an unpleasant piece of work.
    £ = $1.27
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    HYUFD said:

    This diplomat is surely not a diehard Remainer by any chance?
    Since he has given a detailed report back of views that he has heard, I expect he called it as he saw it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,324
    edited June 2019

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
    Probably be true, but I am deeply sceptical of this poll.

    Plus even if true it is only because they believe Boris will WTO us on 31st Oct.

    What happens when he doesn't? Or more likely can't, as he is not PM?
    If Boris wins a majority in a snap election by October on this scale he can do what he likes
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    HYUFD said:

    This diplomat is surely not a diehard Remainer by any chance?
    Since he has given a detailed report back of views that he has heard, I expect he called it as he saw it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,755

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
    Amazingly naïve if you think a change of leader in itself will destroy another party. It'll be what he actually does that will affect whether or not BXP survives or dies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705

    What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

    A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

    Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

    It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.
    Very true.

    And losing Grieve, Letwin etc is the cherry on top.

    Then, for me as a Leaver/Ukipper since 2007, it'll be project complete.
    You still are a UKIPPER and any idea you are a conservative is for the birds
    Small c maybe. The modern Conservative however is a no deal Brexit backer and nothing else matters, pretty much all evidence suggests that is what the members want and if that costs them government, splits the party, upends the constitution or ends the UK then so be it.

    Face it, it's your faction that are at best a tiny minority in the party. Sucks, but from the outside theres no question of that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,921
    DavidL said:

    Boris will doubtless tell us he will deliver Brexit, unite the party and win a general election. He might play down his policy of making Scots pay more tax.

    The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

    We don't need Boris to pay more tax. The Scottish government sees to that already.
    A few pounds extra to help the majority get tax cuts is well worth it David. I don't even notice it and it has changed my lifestyle not a bit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,949
    HYUFD said:
    Sadly he speaks to truth and it is just embarrassing how we have made such a fool of ourselves
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,474
    I'm suspicious of the "He appears stupid but is secretly very clever" line at the best of times, but the more Johnson boxes himself in with this "must leave in October" stuff - seemingly quite unnecessarily so far as the leadership contest goes - the more I think that secretly he's just as stupid as he appears on the surface.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,921
    Sean_F said:

    eek said:


    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.

    Yep - the Tories in Scotland would be wiped out again - as probably would Labour.
    For the rest of the country the question is - will northern Labour Leave seats vote for Boris, will Nigel split that vote or will Labour keep enough to retain the seat.
    The Tories would still get the 25-28% who are both pro-Union and anti-EU, in Scotland.
    A few more second places :smiley: just as they deserve
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,324
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    When was that conducted.

    Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

    And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..
    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.
    Yes, no dealers are abandoning Scotland. Boris and co really dont care about the UK at all.
    The Brexit Party polled second in Scotland in the European Parliament elections and no other Tory contender polls any better than Boris in Scotland in this poll
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705

    So tomorrow presumably Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab and Sajid Javid clear the hurdle. Do we think anyone else is going to get a sympathy shag?

    Rory might just make it. There are enough remainy mps to give him 16 votes.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder how ComRes will feel about their surveys being described as misleading and unacademic.
    I can believe the ComRes figures are accurate. Yes, they’re evidently batshit insane, but large parts of the Conservative party have gone batshit insane so that tallies.

    Where it falls down is then putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus and pretending it means anything. EC is only ever a fun distraction at any time outside a GE campaign, but post the emergence of the Brexit Party, it’s entirely guesswork rather than anything particularly founded on repeatable voting patterns.
    Leaving aside the political implications it would be interesting to see how the Exit Poll coped with four parties within 10% on national vote share.

    Do they have the right wards sampled in 2017 to act as a baseline? It would be quite the challenge.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,755

    Surely the thread header should have been the ComRes poll that emerged last night, rather than just a bland melange of today's headlines?

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/12/rory-stewart-will-destroy-conservative-party/

    ComRes was the pollster that had the biggest CON leads in the run up to GE2017. 25% at one stage and even its final poll had a CON double digit lead. Notice as well that the Telegraph don't lead on it. Also I like to see the detailed data.
    But isn't that falling into the HY trap of assuming that an error in one prediction can be carried forward and applied to another? Who knows what methodology changes they have made? And a significant proportion of any error could easily be random, even where the method is itself biased.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,921
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
    Probably be true, but I am deeply sceptical of this poll.

    Plus even if true it is only because they believe Boris will WTO us on 31st Oct.

    What happens when he doesn't? Or more likely can't, as he is not PM?
    If Boris wins a majority in a snap election by October on this scale he can do what he likes
    Dream on , unicorns for all
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705

    What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

    A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

    Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

    It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.
    The Tories have already lost Soubry, Allen and Wollaston. Grieve, Boles, Lee and Gauke will probably fail to be renominated at a GE as Tories as deselection attempts run their course, and there will probably be others. So a significant chunk of the "Grieve wing" is going to be lost whatever they do.
    Gauke hardly seems on the level of Grieve and Lee in terms of obstructiveness.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,875
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Boris will doubtless tell us he will deliver Brexit, unite the party and win a general election. He might play down his policy of making Scots pay more tax.

    The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

    We don't need Boris to pay more tax. The Scottish government sees to that already.
    A few pounds extra to help the majority get tax cuts is well worth it David. I don't even notice it and it has changed my lifestyle not a bit.
    That's the art of taxation Malcolm. Like boiling frogs.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,000
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    When was that conducted.

    Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

    And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..
    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.
    Yes, no dealers are abandoning Scotland. Boris and co really dont care about the UK at all.
    I’m astonished that anyone ever really thought that Boris and co did care about the Union. The “and Unionist” bit of the name Conservative and Unionist Party is simply a bit of inconvenient historical baggage for Boris and co.

    Remember, if Yes had won the first independence referendum in 2014 there would not now be 59 Scottish MPs blocking Brexit from happening. They’ve only got themselves to blame for the big lies which formed the basis for the entire Better Together campaign.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,755

    What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

    A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

    Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

    It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.
    Very true.

    And losing Grieve, Letwin etc is the cherry on top.

    Then, for me as a Leaver/Ukipper since 2007, it'll be project complete.
    You still are a UKIPPER and any idea you are a conservative is for the birds
    Or, Big G, you are clinging to an interpretation of conservative that no longer exists?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,654
    Mr. Chris, more than that, Boris' tenure as Foreign Secretary provides ample evidence of his incompetence and stupidity.

    But more foolish still are MPs backing him. They know he's got a record of breaking promises (the Heathrow resignation that was replaced by hiding under a table in Afghanistan), and they know he's incompetent. Now he's hiding again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705

    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    When was that conducted.

    Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

    And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..
    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.
    Yes, no dealers are abandoning Scotland. Boris and co really dont care about the UK at all.
    I’m astonished that anyone ever really thought that Boris and co did care about the Union. The “and Unionist” bit of the name Conservative and Unionist Party is simply a bit of inconvenient historical baggage for Boris and co.

    Remember, if Yes had won the first independence referendum in 2014 there would not now be 59 Scottish MPs blocking Brexit from happening. They’ve only got themselves to blame for the big lies which formed the basis for the entire Better Together campaign.
    Enough of them cared to date to not go through with no deal. But they've now given in to save the tory party .
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737

    Surely the thread header should have been the ComRes poll that emerged last night, rather than just a bland melange of today's headlines?

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/12/rory-stewart-will-destroy-conservative-party/

    ComRes was the pollster that had the biggest CON leads in the run up to GE2017. 25% at one stage and even its final poll had a CON double digit lead. Notice as well that the Telegraph don't lead on it. Also I like to see the detailed data.
    The numbers are now up on the Com Res site.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
    Probably be true, but I am deeply sceptical of this poll.

    Plus even if true it is only because they believe Boris will WTO us on 31st Oct.

    What happens when he doesn't? Or more likely can't, as he is not PM?
    If Boris wins a majority in a snap election by October on this scale he can do what he likes
    Dream on , unicorns for all
    Mine will be named Clancy, I look forward to riding him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,892
    kle4 said:

    So tomorrow presumably Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab and Sajid Javid clear the hurdle. Do we think anyone else is going to get a sympathy shag?

    Rory might just make it. There are enough remainy mps to give him 16 votes.
    Hope so. I want to see him in the TV debates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,324

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

    70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

    It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

    It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

    Yes, just like in 2017...

    Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

    If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.

    Yep, Johnson is the Trump candidate:

    http://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-supporters-want-no-deal-brexit-and-less-talk-of-climate-change-new-survey-of-party-members-reveals-118633

    Given our voting system there is only one way to stop him, unfortunately.

    Boris Tories plus Brexit Party =51% with Comres

    Labour plus LDs =44%
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,000
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    When was that conducted.

    Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

    And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..
    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.
    Yes, no dealers are abandoning Scotland. Boris and co really dont care about the UK at all.
    The Brexit Party polled second in Scotland in the European Parliament elections and no other Tory contender polls any better than Boris in Scotland in this poll
    You wouldn’t be basing that assertion on the back of unweighted, minuscule Scottish sub-samples, would you? Tut tut.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,324
    edited June 2019

    Surely the thread header should have been the ComRes poll that emerged last night, rather than just a bland melange of today's headlines?

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/12/rory-stewart-will-destroy-conservative-party/

    Rory is the Tory Party saviour according to PB Remainers, they don't care about the Brexit Party oiks who like Boris
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,412
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
    Probably be true, but I am deeply sceptical of this poll.

    Plus even if true it is only because they believe Boris will WTO us on 31st Oct.

    What happens when he doesn't? Or more likely can't, as he is not PM?
    If Boris wins a majority in a snap election by October on this scale he can do what he likes
    Dream on , unicorns for all
    Mine will be named Clancy, I look forward to riding him.
    r/nocontextkle4
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,422
    So will imports also have to come from countries with zero greenhouse gas emissions ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48596775

    If not then this will ensure:

    1) Job losses and reduced government income in the UK

    2) An increase in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions as production shifts to countries with lower environmental standards.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,324

    Surely the thread header should have been the ComRes poll that emerged last night, rather than just a bland melange of today's headlines?

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/12/rory-stewart-will-destroy-conservative-party/

    ComRes was the pollster that had the biggest CON leads in the run up to GE2017. 25% at one stage and even its final poll had a CON double digit lead. Notice as well that the Telegraph don't lead on it. Also I like to see the detailed data.
    Yougov also gives a Boris led Tory Party a majority, even Survation in the past has had a Boris led Tory Party doing best
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,654
    Mr. Richard, quite.

    It's reminiscent of the biofuel boom, which made terribly concerned Westerners feel better and led to the destruction of pristine rainforest in Indonesia due to clearing space for oil plantations.
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    edited June 2019

    What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

    A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

    Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

    It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.
    Very true.

    And losing Grieve, Letwin etc is the cherry on top.

    Then, for me as a Leaver/Ukipper since 2007, it'll be project complete.
    You still are a UKIPPER and any idea you are a conservative is for the birds
    I am in my mid-twenties, so cannot claim to have been a life-long Conservative voter, that is true. However my family, including grandparents in their 80s, have all voted Conservative since they started voting, right up until David Cameron and George Osborne.

    We then returned in 2017. Our continued support depends on No Deal.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,775

    I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

    I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

    The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

    Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.
    Judging by his speech yesterday and what I have seen of his recent campaign, he has learnt more in his time as a politician than Boris or other candidates ever will.
    I was criticised on here the other day when I made the same point. We hugely overstate our importance as a nation and underestimate the dismay and disbelief with which we are being viewed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 7,908
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

    70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

    It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

    It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

    Yes, just like in 2017...

    Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

    If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.

    Yep, Johnson is the Trump candidate:

    http://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-supporters-want-no-deal-brexit-and-less-talk-of-climate-change-new-survey-of-party-members-reveals-118633

    Given our voting system there is only one way to stop him, unfortunately.

    Boris Tories plus Brexit Party =51% with Comres

    Labour plus LDs =44%
    That's numberwang!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,000
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    When was that conducted.

    Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

    And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..
    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.
    Yes, no dealers are abandoning Scotland. Boris and co really dont care about the UK at all.
    I’m astonished that anyone ever really thought that Boris and co did care about the Union. The “and Unionist” bit of the name Conservative and Unionist Party is simply a bit of inconvenient historical baggage for Boris and co.

    Remember, if Yes had won the first independence referendum in 2014 there would not now be 59 Scottish MPs blocking Brexit from happening. They’ve only got themselves to blame for the big lies which formed the basis for the entire Better Together campaign.
    Enough of them cared to date to not go through with no deal. But they've now given in to save the tory party .
    So, forced to choose between saving the Conservative Party and saving the Union, Tories have decided to save the Conservative Party. Some Unionists they turned out to be!

    As I have always asserted, it is in fact the Labour Party that is the bulwark of the Union, not the Tories (as Ruthie so loves to claim). Wendy Alexander, Jim Murphy, Gordon Brown and fellow dimwits did not just destroy their own party, they removed the last glue holding the Union together.
  • Regarding Singapore, the diplomat and views of Britain abroad.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,949
    edited June 2019
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    Remarkable that Boris doesn't just restrict the Brexit Party - he destroys it.

    All other candidates have it remaining as a significant force in UK politics. Which is why Boris will win.
    Probably be true, but I am deeply sceptical of this poll.

    Plus even if true it is only because they believe Boris will WTO us on 31st Oct.

    What happens when he doesn't? Or more likely can't, as he is not PM?
    If Boris wins a majority in a snap election by October on this scale he can do what he likes
    Dream on , unicorns for all
    Morning Malc - You really have to wonder just how blinkered brexiteers are to the reality

    Was interested to hear Nicola admit yesterday that independence could require a hard border from Carlisle to Berwick having an adverse effect on £48 billion of Scots exports to the rest of the UK against only £11.5 billion exports to the EU
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,474
    How does he leave by 31 October in any circumstances?

    Earlier this year we were told repeatedly that even if the Commons passed the withdrawal agreement, it would need something like two months of concentrated work to pass the necessary legislation.

    We were also told that even if we left with No Deal, legislation would be required which would take almost as long to pass. You can expedite legislation if it's not contentious, but No Deal legislation is about as contentious as can be. There isn't a majority for it now in the Commons. Supposing Johnson won an election first on a No Deal platform - which I doubt he could, and which would cut down the available time even further - even then there is the House of Lords to deal with.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 7,908
    Chris said:

    How does he leave by 31 October in any circumstances?

    Earlier this year we were told repeatedly that even if the Commons passed the withdrawal agreement, it would need something like two months of concentrated work to pass the necessary legislation.

    We were also told that even if we left with No Deal, legislation would be required which would take almost as long to pass. You can expedite legislation if it's not contentious, but No Deal legislation is about as contentious as can be. There isn't a majority for it now in the Commons. Supposing Johnson won an election first on a No Deal platform - which I doubt he could, and which would cut down the available time even further - even then there is the House of Lords to deal with.
    You can't reason with these people. They are insane.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,949
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

    70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

    It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

    It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

    Yes, just like in 2017...

    Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

    If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.

    Yep, Johnson is the Trump candidate:

    http://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-supporters-want-no-deal-brexit-and-less-talk-of-climate-change-new-survey-of-party-members-reveals-118633

    Given our voting system there is only one way to stop him, unfortunately.

    Boris Tories plus Brexit Party =51% with Comres

    Labour plus LDs =44%
    Do you ever consider that your 100% obsession with polling is a flawed concept especially in these crazy political times
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,422
    I suspect that the TV licences story is more important than the coverage it is getting on PB.

    From what I vaguely remember reading the BBC has welched on its promises - if they are on any sort of dodgy ground I would expect the would be Conservative leaders to start making threats.

    Time for some maximum wage caps at the BBC perhaps ?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,474

    Regarding Singapore, the diplomat and views of Britain abroad.

    Singapore is a member of the ASEAN Free Trade Area, isn't it?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,280

    Chris said:

    How does he leave by 31 October in any circumstances?

    Earlier this year we were told repeatedly that even if the Commons passed the withdrawal agreement, it would need something like two months of concentrated work to pass the necessary legislation.

    We were also told that even if we left with No Deal, legislation would be required which would take almost as long to pass. You can expedite legislation if it's not contentious, but No Deal legislation is about as contentious as can be. There isn't a majority for it now in the Commons. Supposing Johnson won an election first on a No Deal platform - which I doubt he could, and which would cut down the available time even further - even then there is the House of Lords to deal with.
    You can't reason with these people. They are insane.
    But. but.... BOJO has the MOJO.....

    Don't you believe enough???
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,775
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Truss not committing to Boris appearing in tv debates

    Just part of a car crash interview ....

    With that attitude his first PMQ’s should be a joy.
    Chris said:

    I'm suspicious of the "He appears stupid but is secretly very clever" line at the best of times, but the more Johnson boxes himself in with this "must leave in October" stuff - seemingly quite unnecessarily so far as the leadership contest goes - the more I think that secretly he's just as stupid as he appears on the surface.

    His time in Cabinet is proof enough of his stupidity, vanity and incompetence.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737

    So will imports also have to come from countries with zero greenhouse gas emissions ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48596775

    If not then this will ensure:

    1) Job losses and reduced government income in the UK

    2) An increase in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions as production shifts to countries with lower environmental standards.

    I doubt if this proposal will be going anywhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705
    Chris said:

    How does he leave by 31 October in any circumstances?

    Earlier this year we were told repeatedly that even if the Commons passed the withdrawal agreement, it would need something like two months of concentrated work to pass the necessary legislation.

    We were also told that even if we left with No Deal, legislation would be required which would take almost as long to pass. You can expedite legislation if it's not contentious, but No Deal legislation is about as contentious as can be. There isn't a majority for it now in the Commons. Supposing Johnson won an election first on a No Deal platform - which I doubt he could, and which would cut down the available time even further - even then there is the House of Lords to deal with.
    The plan is a GE. Hence obsession with jom saving them. They know parliament wont no deal and renegotiation is very unlikely, since GEs, with an extension permissible only to deal with that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705
    edited June 2019

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

    Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

    I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?
    Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

    When was that conducted.

    Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

    And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..
    There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.
    Yes, no dealers are abandoning Scotland. Boris and co really dont care about the UK at all.
    I’m astonished that anyone ever really thought that Boris and co did care about the Union. The “and Unionist” bit of the name Conservative and Unionist Party is simply a bit of inconvenient historical baggage for Boris and co.

    Remember, if Yes had won the first independence referendum in 2014 there would not now be 59 Scottish MPs blocking Brexit from happening. They’ve only got themselves to blame for the big lies which formed the basis for the entire Better Together campaign.
    Enough of them cared to date to not go through with no deal. But they've now given in to save the tory party .
    So, forced to choose between saving the Conservative Party and saving the Union, Tories have decided to save the Conservative Party. Some Unionists they turned out to be!
    Indeed. I'm actually a little stunned even now that there is no cost too high for them. Small credit to May, the cost was too high for her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577
    HYUFD said:

    Surely the thread header should have been the ComRes poll that emerged last night, rather than just a bland melange of today's headlines?

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/12/rory-stewart-will-destroy-conservative-party/

    Rory is the Tory Party saviour according to PB Remainers, they don't care about the Brexit Party oiks who like Boris
    pb.com's reputation is about to get a very bloody nose, having gone deep on the "lay Boris the favourite" mantra.

    There were no 50-1 winners in this field.
  • @DavidL if you’re around

    Do you know when Alex Salmond’s trial is scheduled for or is it TBC?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,755
    FINANCIAL TIMES: "Anyone watching the contest to become British prime minister has to wonder about the cognitive skills of many Conservative candidates. Put simply: are these people stupid?"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,943
    Cyclefree said:

    I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

    I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

    The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

    Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.
    Judging by his speech yesterday and what I have seen of his recent campaign, he has learnt more in his time as a politician than Boris or other candidates ever will.
    I was criticised on here the other day when I made the same point. We hugely overstate our importance as a nation and underestimate the dismay and disbelief with which we are being viewed.
    He has to take his own party with him, you know, lead them, and on that measure he's an abject failure.

    And I speak as someone who both recognises Rory's talent and thinks he's a Tory.

    I know my party.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,949
    IanB2 said:

    What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

    A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

    Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

    It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.
    Very true.

    And losing Grieve, Letwin etc is the cherry on top.

    Then, for me as a Leaver/Ukipper since 2007, it'll be project complete.
    You still are a UKIPPER and any idea you are a conservative is for the birds
    Or, Big G, you are clinging to an interpretation of conservative that no longer exists?
    I agree the hard brexit ukip membership are out of step with my one nation conservative attitude and while it seems they are going to succeed in putting Boris in office Brexit is a single subject and a day will come when the agenda will move towards other important domestic issues and hopefully more one nation conservatives.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,422
    Cyclefree said:

    I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

    I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

    The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

    Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.
    Judging by his speech yesterday and what I have seen of his recent campaign, he has learnt more in his time as a politician than Boris or other candidates ever will.
    I was criticised on here the other day when I made the same point. We hugely overstate our importance as a nation and underestimate the dismay and disbelief with which we are being viewed.
    In which case we should cut the foreign aid spending and stop the warmongering and other international posturing.
This discussion has been closed.