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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The share of the GB vote required for an overall majority –

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The share of the GB vote required for an overall majority – your interactive checker

The above is based on data from Professor John Curtice on what vote leads LAB and CON require to put them over the threshold of 326 to win an overall majority at GE2015.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    First?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Does anybody know of any reputable data that has ever showed that crime is rising in the UK?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Looks like its in both LAB and CON's interests to hammer LD to me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    You are spoiling us with graphics OGH! I expect someone will be along shortly to complain about your anti-Labour propaganda...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Repost of the vital matter of F1 tyres:
    F1: Red Bull continue to whine. Pirelli has modified one tyre (the hard compound) and left the rest unchanged:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22290968

    Tyres for the next 3 races are:
    "In Spain, the hard and medium will be used; in Monaco the soft and super-soft; and in Canada the medium and the super-soft. "

    Mostly written the early mini-review of the season to date. I plan to post that early next week on pb2.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    A year is obviously a long time in crime rate politics...

    http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-is-crime-in-the-uk-on-the-rise/10102
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Looks like the tory backbenchers killing Lords reform, and thus the lib dems killing boundary changes, was a tactical masterstroke.

    Almost a master strategy in fact. ;)

    Nice interactive graph.

    "The number crunchers have yet to find a way of including Ukip."

    Be very interesting to see one with a UKIP voteshare. Eventually I presume.

  • MBoyMBoy Posts: 104
    Given the absence of Sinn Fein, Speaker, etc, Labour could get a de-facto majority with less votes than the Tories.

    But I'm sure the fact that the House of Lords is unreformed will be enough consolation for the Tories if this happens :-D
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I am liking our new toy - the interactive chart maker. It works well on my phone and tablet as well.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like its in both LAB and CON's interests to hammer LD to me.

    A good deal more Con than Labour to be fair.
    It's also very much in lib dems interests to hammer the Cons and Labour. Twas ever thus.

  • theakestheakes Posts: 839
    Really this is all so irrelevant as to be tiresome, the election is 2 years away, you can only start properly predicting about 2 months before but even then its dodgy.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    sam said:

    Does anybody know of any reputable data that has ever showed that crime is rising in the UK?

    Ever?

    Sure, the British Crime Survey showed crime rising for much of its early years (it was created in early Thatcher), peaked around 94/95 ish and declined since then.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    I am liking our new toy - the interactive chart maker. It works well on my phone and tablet as well.

    You could have some fun applying it to the local election results and marginals soon enough.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Hmm. Just idly checking my blog stats (I don't do it too often) and was surprised to see that most hits today came from Iran. Bit unexpected.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    corporeal said:

    sam said:

    Does anybody know of any reputable data that has ever showed that crime is rising in the UK?

    Ever?

    Sure, the British Crime Survey showed crime rising for much of its early years (it was created in early Thatcher), peaked around 94/95 ish and declined since then.
    So falling for almost 20 years, ok cheers.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The decision in McAlpine vs Bercow:

    http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2013/981.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    edited April 2013
    While it is a splendid graphic, Mike, there's one glaring omission. How about the GB share required by the LDs to get an overall majority?

    :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    A member of the notorious 'hacktivist' group Anonymous UK raped a woman twice inside the Occupy London camp, a court heard.
    Malcolm Blackman, 45, allegedly took advantage of the woman, aged in her 40s, after she passed out drunk in her tent on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral.
    In another incident he tied her hands behind her back with cable ties before forcing himself on her, jurors heard.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2314595/Member-hacking-group-Anonymous-UK-raped-woman-Occupy-London-campsite-steps-St-Pauls.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    There's one glaring omission in the above graphic. How about the GB share required by the LDs to get an overall majority?

    :)

    Or, whisper it quietly....a vote share lower than 10%......

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Mr Hodges tweets:

    Whittingdale reacts positively to presses new Leveson proposals. Suspect Cameron will not be far behind. Lab/LD being outflanked. Again.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    sam said:

    corporeal said:

    sam said:

    Does anybody know of any reputable data that has ever showed that crime is rising in the UK?

    Ever?

    Sure, the British Crime Survey showed crime rising for much of its early years (it was created in early Thatcher), peaked around 94/95 ish and declined since then.
    So falling for almost 20 years, ok cheers.

    Well, in long term trends yes. I can't remember if there were some short term upticks along the way.

    Fear of crime has increased as actual crime has declined.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mr Hodges tweets:

    Case closed.

    *titters*

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Curtice estimated a possible 6-8% voteshare for UKIP in 2015 I believe?

    So I'm afraid there are far worse cases than merely a higher than expected lib dem voteshare.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Corporeal, I wonder if that ties in with the worsening balance of good/bad news in the papers. There seems to be such a strong focus on the negative now that it could explain the increasing fear of crime as crime itself is in decline.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If David Cameron is going to welcome the press's contribution, Maria Miller hasn't been given the memo.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    An analysis of the Press Proposals vs the Hacked Off All Party ones on Press regulation

    http://www.cityam.com/blog/every-single-change-newspaper-press-charter

    This is feeling very much like angels on pin-heads territory....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    antifrank said:

    If David Cameron is going to welcome the press's contribution, Maria Miller hasn't been given the memo.

    Yes - they might have done a bit of coordination first.....

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Ed Conway on GDP:

    A negative GDP figure today – or even a slightly positive one – would have left the Chancellor with little ammunition left to defend himself. Over the past few weeks he’s been battered by the International Monetary Fund, embarrassed by the Excel scandal that’s upended the Reinhart & Rogoff research he used to help justify his austerity policies and disappointed by the fact that the public finances barely recovered at all last year – in underlying terms, at least. Had today’s figure been negative it would have made it far more likely that the IMF would have delivered a withering verdict of the UK economy in its annual survey of the country next month. The Chancellor would have gone into the spending review a weakened figure.
    Today’s 0.3% doesn’t change everything but it does remind us that the economy may not be as much of a basket case as many people had assumed.

    http://www.edmundconway.com/2013/04/gdp-finally-some-good-news/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Just popped in to say "Well done George".

    I did say in January that I thought there was a good outside chance that growth in this calandar year may well exceed 1%. I think this is very likely now.

    The economy is clearly starting to turn and the Coalition are finally addressing the credit issue with their various schemes. Could have been faster if they had bitten the poison capsule of our nationalised banks earlier and this still needs to be done urgently but I think we will see modest growth from here, just possibly picking up at the end of the year.

    Will this affect polling? Not yet but Q2 may see the start of a turn.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Hmm. Just idly checking my blog stats (I don't do it too often) and was surprised to see that most hits today came from Iran. Bit unexpected.

    When blogging - I found some very strange places where mine was popular - went through a phase when Zambia was particularly keen - I put it down to one ex-pat liking it and emailing a post onwards to fellows.

    My tweets are particularly popular amongst sailing nuts and rugby players - since I post about neither, I assume the same is true...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Mr. Corporeal, I wonder if that ties in with the worsening balance of good/bad news in the papers. There seems to be such a strong focus on the negative now that it could explain the increasing fear of crime as crime itself is in decline.

    That's the general theory. If it bleeds it leads etc. And not just the papers but the media generally. I think the more in-depth breakdown is people all over the place think crime is rising, not in their area, but elsewhere.

    The BCS have done long term trend reports you can find on google, some interesting stuff. I think the BBC did something a while back about how parents are far more restrictive of their children now, despite things being safer than ever.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    The Dacre new version seems to want the proprietors to have the say on who is on the board. control of it's remit and appointments, whether it has fullfilled it's duty, editors setting the code of conduct and remove all that troublesome whistleblowing and public explanation stuff.

    What a surprise.

    Good luck defending that lot Cammie.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Now even the Americans think that Trident has to go -

    "While the United States would like to be able to rely more on its European allies, many experts doubt that even the strongest among them, Britain and France, could carry out their part of another Libya operation now, and certainly not in a few years. Both are struggling to maintain their own nuclear deterrents as well as mobile, modern armed forces. The situation in Britain is so bad that American officials are quietly urging it to drop its expensive nuclear deterrent.

    “Either they can be a nuclear power and nothing else or a real military partner,” a senior American official said."


    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/23/world/europe/europes-shrinking-military-spending-under-scrutiny.html?_r=0
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @DavidL A couple of months ago I noted that this Parliament had been characterised by unexpectedly poor growth and unexpectedly good employment figures, and speculated that we might see the reverse this year, with unpredictable consequences for polling. It's still a tenuous hypothesis, but it hasn't been ruled out of court yet on either front.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    The decision in McAlpine vs Bercow:

    http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2013/981.html

    Could you translate for me please. I don't speak legalese
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Miss Plato, an uncouth fellow might make a joke about seamen and hookers, but I am far too civilised to do such a thing :p

    Indeed, Mr. Corporeal. It's ironic that staying inside and fiddling with gadgets has all the associated virus risks as well as the off-chance of a 43 year old chap pretending to be a 12 year old girl.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Why Ed should listen to Lenin:

    I agree. Ed should get as far left as possible. The loonier the better...

    Bev.


  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I agree. Ed should get as far left as possible"

    I'd settle for him just moving away from the centre-right.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    I don't know if it's been mentioned yet, but there's going to be a Scottish parliamentary by-election in Aberdeen Donside. The very popular SNP MSP Brian Adam has died.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Sorry to hear that, Mr. Kelly.

    Presumably that'll just be a safe hold?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    Blue_rog said:

    Could you translate for me please. I don't speak legalese

    There will first be a hearing to decide what the meaning of her tweets was, and (assuming that the court decides that the meaning was something disobliging), a second hearing to decide how much she should pay up. She wanted it all to be done in one hearing.

    It seems an odd thing for her lawyers to go to court over, but anyway they failed.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Now even the Americans think that Trident has to go -

    Actually, from reading the article, the US seem more concerned that Europe is losing its taste for military intervention meanaing that the US can no longer go to war under the cover of "international cooperation".

    Given the history of the 20th Century, you would think that a reduction in militarism in continental Europe would be a cause for celebration.

    Bev.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Given the history of the 20th Century, you would think that a reduction in militarism in continental Europe would be a cause for celebration."

    If the subtext of that article is true (that NATO doesn't have a meaningful future), then it's certainly something I celebrate.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Sorry to hear that, Mr. Kelly.

    Presumably that'll just be a safe hold?"


    You would think so, although the trouble with by-elections is that the distinction between Holyrood and Westminster contests can sometimes get lost. The SNP don't hold the equivalent seats at Westminster.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @RichardNabavi I imagine that her lawyers felt that there was a fair chance that she would lose on the point of law but that the damages awarded would be relatively low if the two points were decided together. If the trial is split in this way and Lord McAlpine wins on the point of law, Sally Bercow then has to decide whether to roll the dice on stage two knowing that she's going to lose - it just being a question of how badly - or to settle with Lord McAlpine on the terms that he has already offered. And it would be presentationally unattractive to go to the second stage saying in effect "OK, I libelled him but I shouldn't have to pay that much."
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    I don't know if it's been mentioned yet, but there's going to be a Scottish parliamentary by-election in Aberdeen Donside. The very popular SNP MSP Brian Adam has died.

    Do UKIP compete in these elections?

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Do UKIP compete in these elections?"

    I've no idea if they'll bother standing in the by-election, but they didn't stand in the constituency at the 2011 election. The National Front stood, and got 0.8% of the vote.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    I don't know if it's been mentioned yet, but there's going to be a Scottish parliamentary by-election in Aberdeen Donside. The very popular SNP MSP Brian Adam has died.

    Do UKIP compete in these elections?

    Is there a lap dancing club in Aberdeen Donside?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    @antifrank - Yes, that makes sense, although I'd have thought that the George Monbiot approach would have made even more sense. Too late now, I guess.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Zubeidat Tsarnaeva is giving a masterclass in denial at the moment:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1082906/boston-suspects-mother-us-took-my-kids
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714

    "Sorry to hear that, Mr. Kelly.

    Presumably that'll just be a safe hold?"


    You would think so, although the trouble with by-elections is that the distinction between Holyrood and Westminster contests can sometimes get lost. The SNP don't hold the equivalent seats at Westminster.

    RIP to Adam.

    SNP majority in 2011 was 26.9% IIRC Adam first won the FPTP seat (Aberdeen North at the time) in 2003.

    In 2012 locals, the 5 wards entirely included in Donside showed 7,155 first prefs for SNP, 5,675 for Lab. There is a 6th ward which is split with Central. Overall it was marginally Labour, but I don't know if its political colours vary within the ward.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited April 2013
    Tom Newton Dunn tweets: "Lady Thatcher’s funeral cost just £3.6million - a THIRD of £10m tag claimed by critics. Includes police pay."

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4903067/Thatcher-funeral-cost-just-36m-a-THIRD-of-reported-figure.html
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AveryLP said:

    I don't know if it's been mentioned yet, but there's going to be a Scottish parliamentary by-election in Aberdeen Donside. The very popular SNP MSP Brian Adam has died.

    Do UKIP compete in these elections?

    Is there a lap dancing club in Aberdeen Donside?
    If not, why not? Aberdeen Donside residents being treated like 2nd class citizens. Vote UKIP!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Congratulations to the Lib Dems on stopping the latest effort to snoop on internet users.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    In the thread discussing the average UKIP % in recent local by-elections, Richard Nabavi asked how many wards they didn't contest. So I made him a list of detailed UKIP performances...and IIRC the Scottish by-elections were the lowest shares (but they were Lanarkshire contests)
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413


    Is there a lap dancing club in Aberdeen Donside?

    If not, why not? Aberdeen Donside residents being treated like 2nd class citizens. Vote UKIP!

    Dunno about Donside, but a quick Google suggests Aberdonians are adequately supplied in this respect:

    https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?ie=UTF-8&q=lap-dancing+aberdeen&fb=1&gl=uk&hq=lap-dancing&hnear=0x4884054c1fd77549:0xe8bb05da5cf4c472,Aberdeen,+Aberdeen+City&view=text&ei=V0B5UceMI66d0wXH44GIAw&ved=0CDMQtQM
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Lady Thatcher’s funeral cost just £3.6million"

    But the No2AV campaigners are still rightly furious about all the cute kittens that died as a result.
  • SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    O/T The subbing on The Daily Mail website leaves a lot to be desired. There is a lead story about the boyfriend of a model who was hit by a bus and, according to The Mail, is now in "intensive car."
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Test
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    A piece of news to get tim excited.

    The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) will permit banks access BoE funds to lend to Buy-to-Let Landlords, sometimes disingenuously labelled as "second home owners" by Balls.

    FLS will offer funds to small and medium sized businesses (SME), which are defined as companies with an annual turnover less than £25m.

    While it is intended to bolster SMEs, it will also help drive the housing sector. The sector has already reaped the rewards of lower borrowing costs from banks.

    The average buy-to-let rate has fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August when the FLS was launched, data from Moneyfacts showed. Subsequently, buy–to-let mortgages reached its highest level in four years as buy-to-lending grew 19% last year.

    "It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.

    "Lend to a landlord – collateral easy to price – and get 10 times that lending back as essentially free funding, then recycle some of that back out again on mortgages or BTL."


    It is quite clear that it is the Coalition government's strategy to encourage the private sector to satisfy as much of the unfulfilled housing demand as possible. This is all part of the public to private sector rebalancing objective and seems to be off to a fast start with BTL growth of near 20% last year.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746


    Is there a lap dancing club in Aberdeen Donside?

    If not, why not? Aberdeen Donside residents being treated like 2nd class citizens. Vote UKIP!

    Dunno about Donside, but a quick Google suggests Aberdonians are adequately supplied in this respect:

    https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?ie=UTF-8&q=lap-dancing+aberdeen&fb=1&gl=uk&hq=lap-dancing&hnear=0x4884054c1fd77549:0xe8bb05da5cf4c472,Aberdeen,+Aberdeen+City&view=text&ei=V0B5UceMI66d0wXH44GIAw&ved=0CDMQtQM
    Poo. Killjoy SNP vs UKIP4Jiggle would have been a super campaign. :-)

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited April 2013
    AveryLP said:

    A piece of news to get tim excited.

    The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) will permit banks access BoE funds to lend to Buy-to-Let Landlords, sometimes disingenuously labelled as "second home owners" by Balls.

    FLS will offer funds to small and medium sized businesses (SME), which are defined as companies with an annual turnover less than £25m.

    While it is intended to bolster SMEs, it will also help drive the housing sector. The sector has already reaped the rewards of lower borrowing costs from banks.

    The average buy-to-let rate has fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August when the FLS was launched, data from Moneyfacts showed. Subsequently, buy–to-let mortgages reached its highest level in four years as buy-to-lending grew 19% last year.

    "It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.

    "Lend to a landlord – collateral easy to price – and get 10 times that lending back as essentially free funding, then recycle some of that back out again on mortgages or BTL."


    It is quite clear that it is the Coalition government's strategy to encourage the private sector to satisfy as much of the unfulfilled housing demand as possible. This is all part of the public to private sector rebalancing objective and seems to be off to a fast start with BTL growth of near 20% last year.

    Why's that good ? It's an over complex scheme with the tax payer on the hook for Osborne's refusal to reform the banking sector. Jorge no tiene cojones.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited April 2013
    GBP at $1.543 and EURO 1.187, but Brent Crude has gained $4 over the last week.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621


    Is there a lap dancing club in Aberdeen Donside?

    If not, why not? Aberdeen Donside residents being treated like 2nd class citizens. Vote UKIP!

    Dunno about Donside, but a quick Google suggests Aberdonians are adequately supplied in this respect:

    https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?ie=UTF-8&q=lap-dancing+aberdeen&fb=1&gl=uk&hq=lap-dancing&hnear=0x4884054c1fd77549:0xe8bb05da5cf4c472,Aberdeen,+Aberdeen+City&view=text&ei=V0B5UceMI66d0wXH44GIAw&ved=0CDMQtQM
    Poo. Killjoy SNP vs UKIP4Jiggle would have been a super campaign. :-)

    They must get a lot of trade from rig workers, desperate after 4 weeks surrounded only by sweaty, oily men in overalls.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    A piece of news to get tim excited.

    The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) will permit banks access BoE funds to lend to Buy-to-Let Landlords, sometimes disingenuously labelled as "second home owners" by Balls.

    FLS will offer funds to small and medium sized businesses (SME), which are defined as companies with an annual turnover less than £25m.

    While it is intended to bolster SMEs, it will also help drive the housing sector. The sector has already reaped the rewards of lower borrowing costs from banks.

    The average buy-to-let rate has fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August when the FLS was launched, data from Moneyfacts showed. Subsequently, buy–to-let mortgages reached its highest level in four years as buy-to-lending grew 19% last year.

    "It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.

    "Lend to a landlord – collateral easy to price – and get 10 times that lending back as essentially free funding, then recycle some of that back out again on mortgages or BTL."


    It is quite clear that it is the Coalition government's strategy to encourage the private sector to satisfy as much of the unfulfilled housing demand as possible. This is all part of the public to private sector rebalancing objective and seems to be off to a fast start with BTL growth of near 20% last year.

    Why's that good ? It's an over complex scheme with the tax payer on the hook for Osborne's refusal to reform the banking sector. Il Jorge no tiene cojones.
    Now don't piss on the parade, Mr. Brooke. George is having a very good day.

    And he is also busy at work on banking sector recaptitalisation and restructuring but this will, of necessity, take time.

    In the interim he needs to stimulate lending to the SME sector and to kickstart construction and housebuilding. The BoE FLS scheme is designed to meet both objectives on an interim basis.

    What is there to complain of?

    Is it raining in Warwickshire?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Posted that earlier.
    The taxpayer gets to pay twice, once to subsidise BTL landlords mortgages and again with rising housing benefit claims as rents are forced up.
    Oh, and first time buyers get priced out


    "It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.

    so very much like its sponsor then.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    With Adam's death, I think just 35 MSPs served continuously since 1999....you can add Richard Lochlead who missed few weeks ahead of the Moray by-election (and Mary Scanlon some months between the by-election and the general election):


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Irony fail - Hacked Off comment on the Press' proposals:

    "a temper tantrum by some powerful people used to having their own way.“
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Irony fail"

    Ironic or not, it has the virtue of being true.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    A piece of news to get tim excited.

    The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) will permit banks access BoE funds to lend to Buy-to-Let Landlords, sometimes disingenuously labelled as "second home owners" by Balls.

    FLS will offer funds to small and medium sized businesses (SME), which are defined as companies with an annual turnover less than £25m.

    While it is intended to bolster SMEs, it will also help drive the housing sector. The sector has already reaped the rewards of lower borrowing costs from banks.

    The average buy-to-let rate has fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August when the FLS was launched, data from Moneyfacts showed. Subsequently, buy–to-let mortgages reached its highest level in four years as buy-to-lending grew 19% last year.

    "It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.

    "Lend to a landlord – collateral easy to price – and get 10 times that lending back as essentially free funding, then recycle some of that back out again on mortgages or BTL."


    It is quite clear that it is the Coalition government's strategy to encourage the private sector to satisfy as much of the unfulfilled housing demand as possible. This is all part of the public to private sector rebalancing objective and seems to be off to a fast start with BTL growth of near 20% last year.

    Why's that good ? It's an over complex scheme with the tax payer on the hook for Osborne's refusal to reform the banking sector. Il Jorge no tiene cojones.
    Now don't piss on the parade, Mr. Brooke. George is having a very good day.

    And he is also busy at work on banking sector recaptitalisation and restructuring but this will, of necessity, take time.

    In the interim he needs to stimulate lending to the SME sector and to kickstart construction and housebuilding. The BoE FLS scheme is designed to meet both objectives on an interim basis.

    What is there to complain of?

    Is it raining in Warwickshire?

    How's it a good day for him ? He hasn't actually done anything much to assist the economy. 0.3% growth when borrowing is stubbornly refusing to decline is nothing to boast about. Any recovery is despite his efforts not because of them, blues just simply have to accept that if Gordon Brown was Dr Evil, then Osborne is Mini-me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Tim Shipman tweets: "Given that the only papers that make any money in this country won't fund the stitched up regulator, who do Hacked Off imagine is going to?"

    Two beards?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013

    Gordon Brown was Dr Evil.

    He certainly wasn't Goldmember. Smoke and a pancake anyone?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Posted that earlier.
    The taxpayer gets to pay twice, once to subsidise BTL landlords mortgages and again with rising housing benefit claims as rents are forced up.
    Oh, and first time buyers get priced out

    You are deliberately misunderstanding, tim.

    The banks are currently not lending enough because they are reducing their loan books to meet the additional capital adequacy requirements required by the Prudential Regulation Authority division of the Bank of England.

    Until the banks are recapitalised by injection of market capital (who will do this?) or by other extraordinary monetary intervention (BoE exchanges mortgage books for 'cash'), this logjam won't be freed.

    So the FLS is designed to provide banks with additional and interim funds for lending to UK business and households, thereby supporting growth in the economy.

    FLS can be wound down after the banking sector has been restructured and the current capital constraints no longer apply. While it operates it will recover its costs through fees charged by the BoE to the banks. This means it will have no immediate or direct impact on taxpayers: the additional borrowing is funded.

    The fact that banks now have funds to lend does not mean that the BTL landlord is subsidised. It just means there is now a supply of credit on commercial terms to meet demand.

    On housing benefit, as I too posted earlier, the additional costs of payments to tenants in state owned property will increase government expenses but also increase the asset values of the property held. So this measure should (broadly) be fiscally neutral.

    Once state owned multi-occupier property earns market rents and is valued at market prices, it becomes liquid, enabling sale from government to private ownership thereby reducing both local and central government borrowing, all to the benefit of taxpayers and the UK economy as a whole.

    So your accusation of a double taxpayer whammy is singularly shammy.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Hacked Off vs the Newspapers: the unspeakable in pursuit of the unreadable.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013

    Tim Shipman tweets: "Given that the only papers that make any money in this country won't fund the stitched up regulator, who do Hacked Off imagine is going to?"

    Two beards?

    I know who "two beards" refers too, but I have no idea why. Google was no help, so can one of you bright people help me out?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @Avery

    Posted that earlier.
    The taxpayer gets to pay twice, once to subsidise BTL landlords mortgages and again with rising housing benefit claims as rents are forced up.
    Oh, and first time buyers get priced out

    You are deliberately misunderstanding, tim.

    The banks are currently not lending enough because they are reducing their loan books to meet the additional capital adequacy requirements required by the Prudential Regulation Authority division of the Bank of England.

    Until the banks are recapitalised by injection of market capital (who will do this?) or by other extraordinary monetary intervention (BoE exchanges mortgage books for 'cash'), this logjam won't be freed.

    So the FLS is designed to provide banks with additional and interim funds for lending to UK business and households, thereby supporting growth in the economy.

    FLS can be wound down after the banking sector has been restructured and the current capital constraints no longer apply. While it operates it will recover its costs through fees charged by the BoE to the banks. This means it will have no immediate or direct impact on taxpayers: the additional borrowing is funded.

    The fact that banks now have funds to lend does not mean that the BTL landlord is subsidised. There is no supply of credit available on commercial terms to meet demand.

    On housing benefit, as I too posted earlier, the additional costs of payments to tenants in state owned property will increase government expenses but also increase the asset values of the property held. So this measure should be broadly fiscally neutral.

    Once state owned multi-occupier property earns market rents and is valued at market prices, it becomes liquid, enabling sale from government to private ownership thereby reducing both local and central government borrowing, all to the benefit of taxpayers and the UK economy as a whole.

    So your accusation of a double taxpayer whammy is singularly shammy.
    It's still 15 - love to tim and you've just double faulted.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Anorak said:

    Tim Shipman tweets: "Given that the only papers that make any money in this country won't fund the stitched up regulator, who do Hacked Off imagine is going to?"

    Two beards?

    I know who "two beards" refers too, but I have no idea why. Google was no help, so can one of you bright people help me out?
    The Urban Dictionary has a suggestion....others have said its an obscure Russian joke, which they don't understand....

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @Avery

    Posted that earlier.
    The taxpayer gets to pay twice, once to subsidise BTL landlords mortgages and again with rising housing benefit claims as rents are forced up.
    Oh, and first time buyers get priced out

    You are deliberately misunderstanding, tim.

    The banks are currently not lending enough because they are reducing their loan books to meet the additional capital adequacy requirements required by the Prudential Regulation Authority division of the Bank of England.

    Until the banks are recapitalised by injection of market capital (who will do this?) or by other extraordinary monetary intervention (BoE exchanges mortgage books for 'cash'), this logjam won't be freed.

    So the FLS is designed to provide banks with additional and interim funds for lending to UK business and households, thereby supporting growth in the economy.

    FLS can be wound down after the banking sector has been restructured and the current capital constraints no longer apply. While it operates it will recover its costs through fees charged by the BoE to the banks. This means it will have no immediate or direct impact on taxpayers: the additional borrowing is funded.

    The fact that banks now have funds to lend does not mean that the BTL landlord is subsidised. There is no supply of credit available on commercial terms to meet demand.

    On housing benefit, as I too posted earlier, the additional costs of payments to tenants in state owned property will increase government expenses but also increase the asset values of the property held. So this measure should be broadly fiscally neutral.

    Once state owned multi-occupier property earns market rents and is valued at market prices, it becomes liquid, enabling sale from government to private ownership thereby reducing both local and central government borrowing, all to the benefit of taxpayers and the UK economy as a whole.

    So your accusation of a double taxpayer whammy is singularly shammy.
    It's still 15 - love to tim and you've just double faulted.
    You cannot be serious, Mr. Brooke.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "The number of UKIP members has increased from 18,200 in December to 25,383 as of April 19."

    https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/327443356282142720
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Kevin Maguire tweets: "Newspapers signing up for state regulation must pay for the control. A minority couldn't afford the full cost. Tis dead"
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    A piece of news to get tim excited.

    The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) will permit banks access BoE funds to lend to Buy-to-Let Landlords, sometimes disingenuously labelled as "second home owners" by Balls.

    FLS will offer funds to small and medium sized businesses (SME), which are defined as companies with an annual turnover less than £25m.

    While it is intended to bolster SMEs, it will also help drive the housing sector. The sector has already reaped the rewards of lower borrowing costs from banks.

    The average buy-to-let rate has fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August when the FLS was launched, data from Moneyfacts showed. Subsequently, buy–to-let mortgages reached its highest level in four years as buy-to-lending grew 19% last year.

    "It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.

    "Lend to a landlord – collateral easy to price – and get 10 times that lending back as essentially free funding, then recycle some of that back out again on mortgages or BTL."


    It is quite clear that it is the Coalition government's strategy to encourage the private sector to satisfy as much of the unfulfilled housing demand as possible. This is all part of the public to private sector rebalancing objective and seems to be off to a fast start with BTL growth of near 20% last year.

    Why's that good ? It's an over complex scheme with the tax payer on the hook for Osborne's refusal to reform the banking sector. Il Jorge no tiene cojones.
    Now don't piss on the parade, Mr. Brooke. George is having a very good day.

    And he is also busy at work on banking sector recaptitalisation and restructuring but this will, of necessity, take time.

    In the interim he needs to stimulate lending to the SME sector and to kickstart construction and housebuilding. The BoE FLS scheme is designed to meet both objectives on an interim basis.

    What is there to complain of?

    Is it raining in Warwickshire?

    How's it a good day for him ? He hasn't actually done anything much to assist the economy. 0.3% growth when borrowing is stubbornly refusing to decline is nothing to boast about. Any recovery is despite his efforts not because of them, blues just simply have to accept that if Gordon Brown was Dr Evil, then Osborne is Mini-me.
    You are wrong to assume that borrowing is "stubbornly refusing to decline".

    A cursory look at Tuesday's ONS Public Sector Finances bulletin will show that whilst the deficit rose above prior year levels during the middle two quarters of 2012, it fell most rapidly in the fourth quarter.

    Now we know that continued deficit reduction has been possible on a quarterly growth rate of 0.3%, the fiscal mandate forecasts (deficit reduction and debt to GDP ratios) will be revised accordingly.

    Obviously more time is needed to assimilate the recent information and its impact on medium term performance but the early indications, from the OBR report on the PSF figures, are that the Q1 borrowing figures were overstated (see all the stuff on accruals which I quoted on Wednesday).

    The deficit reduction bus is not therefore stationary, Mr. Brooke. Nor too is it speeding. It is therefore safe for you to alight.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Who are these peons critiquing the great George "0.3%" O's policies ?

    Know your places.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "US has 'some confidence' of Syria chemical-weapon use":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22297569
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    A piece of news to get tim excited.

    The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) will permit banks access BoE funds to lend to Buy-to-Let Landlords, sometimes disingenuously labelled as "second home owners" by Balls.

    FLS will offer funds to small and medium sized businesses (SME), which are defined as companies with an annual turnover less than £25m.

    While it is intended to bolster SMEs, it will also help drive the housing sector. The sector has already reaped the rewards of lower borrowing costs from banks.

    The average buy-to-let rate has fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August when the FLS was launched, data from Moneyfacts showed. Subsequently, buy–to-let mortgages reached its highest level in four years as buy-to-lending grew 19% last year.

    "It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.

    "Lend to a landlord – collateral easy to price – and get 10 times that lending back as essentially free funding, then recycle some of that back out again on mortgages or BTL."


    It is quite clear that it is the Coalition government's strategy to encourage the private sector to satisfy as much of the unfulfilled housing demand as possible. This is all part of the public to private sector rebalancing objective and seems to be off to a fast start with BTL growth of near 20% last year.

    Why's that good ? It's an over complex scheme with the tax payer on the hook for Osborne's refusal to reform the banking sector. Il Jorge no tiene cojones.
    Now don't piss on the parade, Mr. Brooke. George is having a very good day.

    And he is also busy at work on banking sector recaptitalisation and restructuring but this will, of necessity, take time.

    In the interim he needs to stimulate lending to the SME sector and to kickstart construction and housebuilding. The BoE FLS scheme is designed to meet both objectives on an interim basis.

    What is there to complain of?

    Is it raining in Warwickshire?

    How's it a good day for him ? He hasn't actually done anything much to assist the economy. 0.3% growth when borrowing is stubbornly refusing to decline is nothing to boast about. Any recovery is despite his efforts not because of them, blues just simply have to accept that if Gordon Brown was Dr Evil, then Osborne is Mini-me.
    You are wrong to assume that borrowing is "stubbornly refusing to decline".

    A cursory look at Tuesday's ONS Public Sector Finances bulletin will show that whilst the deficit rose above prior year levels during the middle two quarters of 2012, it fell most rapidly in the fourth quarter.

    Now we know that continued deficit reduction has been possible on a quarterly growth rate of 0.3%, the fiscal mandate forecasts (deficit reduction and debt to GDP ratios) will be revised accordingly.

    Obviously more time is needed to assimilate the recent information and its impact on medium term performance but the early indications, from the OBR report on the PSF figures, are that the Q1 borrowing figures were overstated (see all the stuff on accruals which I quoted on Wednesday).

    The deficit reduction bus is not therefore stationary, Mr. Brooke. Nor too is it speeding. It is therefore safe for you to alight.

    chortle, a beautiful analogy Mr Pole, but the bus is now running 2 years late because the driver spent so much time in the depot choosing furry dice and go faster stripes he forgot he was actually supposed to make the bus move. And he can never catch the time back.
  • SandraM said:

    O/T The subbing on The Daily Mail website leaves a lot to be desired. There is a lead story about the boyfriend of a model who was hit by a bus and, according to The Mail, is now in "intensive car."

    Yes, that's the famous rugby player Danny Cipriani.

    Apparently he's ok now, but the bus is a write-off.
  • JackW said:

    Test

    Why aren't you at Perth?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    A piece of news to get tim excited.

    The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) will permit banks access BoE funds to lend to Buy-to-Let Landlords, sometimes disingenuously labelled as "second home owners" by Balls.

    FLS will offer funds to small and medium sized businesses (SME), which are defined as companies with an annual turnover less than £25m.

    While it is intended to bolster SMEs, it will also help drive the housing sector. The sector has already reaped the rewards of lower borrowing costs from banks.

    The average buy-to-let rate has fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August when the FLS was launched, data from Moneyfacts showed. Subsequently, buy–to-let mortgages reached its highest level in four years as buy-to-lending grew 19% last year.

    "It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.

    "Lend to a landlord – collateral easy to price – and get 10 times that lending back as essentially free funding, then recycle some of that back out again on mortgages or BTL."


    It is quite clear that it is the Coalition government's strategy to encourage the private sector to satisfy as much of the unfulfilled housing demand as possible. This is all part of the public to private sector rebalancing objective and seems to be off to a fast start with BTL growth of near 20% last year.

    Why's that good ? It's an over complex scheme with the tax payer on the hook for Osborne's refusal to reform the banking sector. Il Jorge no tiene cojones.
    Now don't piss on the parade, Mr. Brooke. George is having a very good day.

    And he is also busy at work on banking sector recaptitalisation and restructuring but this will, of necessity, take time.

    In the interim he needs to stimulate lending to the SME sector and to kickstart construction and housebuilding. The BoE FLS scheme is designed to meet both objectives on an interim basis.

    What is there to complain of?

    Is it raining in Warwickshire?

    How's it a good day for him ? He hasn't actually done anything much to assist the economy. 0.3% growth when borrowing is stubbornly refusing to decline is nothing to boast about. Any recovery is despite his efforts not because of them, blues just simply have to accept that if Gordon Brown was Dr Evil, then Osborne is Mini-me.
    You are wrong to assume that borrowing is "stubbornly refusing to decline".

    A cursory look at Tuesday's ONS Public Sector Finances bulletin will show that whilst the deficit rose above prior year levels during the middle two quarters of 2012, it fell most rapidly in the fourth quarter.

    Now we know that continued deficit reduction has been possible on a quarterly growth rate of 0.3%, the fiscal mandate forecasts (deficit reduction and debt to GDP ratios) will be revised accordingly.

    Obviously more time is needed to assimilate the recent information and its impact on medium term performance but the early indications, from the OBR report on the PSF figures, are that the Q1 borrowing figures were overstated (see all the stuff on accruals which I quoted on Wednesday).

    The deficit reduction bus is not therefore stationary, Mr. Brooke. Nor too is it speeding. It is therefore safe for you to alight.

    chortle, a beautiful analogy Mr Pole, but the bus is now running 2 years late because the driver spent so much time in the depot choosing furry dice and go faster stripes he forgot he was actually supposed to make the bus move. And he can never catch the time back.
    Considering the bus had been hurtling fast into a brick wall under the previous drivers Gordon and Alistair the fact its not crashed yet and is now in reverse is enough to satisfy me. Especially given we can look outside the bus windows to the hideous and mangled wreckages of Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain, Cyprus etc and think "there but for the grace of George go I".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Hodges: "Think Hacked Off's outraged response shows just how voluntary they want their "voluntary" Charter to be."

    Indeed.....
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The UK's banks are being told to stick and twist at the same time. Lend more, but be much more conservative in your risk taking at the same time.

    Meanwhile past lending is being hammered by misselling fines.

    New players are nowhere to be seen because the regulatory barriers are very high, even though many companies have more cash than they know what to do with.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    A piece of news to get tim excited.

    The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) will permit banks access BoE funds to lend to Buy-to-Let Landlords, sometimes disingenuously labelled as "second home owners" by Balls.

    FLS will offer funds to small and medium sized businesses (SME), which are defined as companies with an annual turnover less than £25m.

    While it is intended to bolster SMEs, it will also help drive the housing sector. The sector has already reaped the rewards of lower borrowing costs from banks.

    The average buy-to-let rate has fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August when the FLS was launched, data from Moneyfacts showed. Subsequently, buy–to-let mortgages reached its highest level in four years as buy-to-lending grew 19% last year.

    "It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.

    "Lend to a landlord – collateral easy to price – and get 10 times that lending back as essentially free funding, then recycle some of that back out again on mortgages or BTL."


    It is quite clear that it is the Coalition government's strategy to encourage the private sector to satisfy as much of the unfulfilled housing demand as possible. This is all part of the public to private sector rebalancing objective and seems to be off to a fast start with BTL growth of near 20% last year.

    Why's that good ? It's an over complex scheme with the tax payer on the hook for Osborne's refusal to reform the banking sector. Il Jorge no tiene cojones.
    Now don't piss on the parade, Mr. Brooke. George is having a very good day.

    And he is also busy at work on banking sector recaptitalisation and restructuring but this will, of necessity, take time.

    In the interim he needs to stimulate lending to the SME sector and to kickstart construction and housebuilding. The BoE FLS scheme is designed to meet both objectives on an interim basis.

    What is there to complain of?

    Is it raining in Warwickshire?

    How's it a good day for him ? He hasn't actually done anything much to assist the economy. 0.3% growth when borrowing is stubbornly refusing to decline is nothing to boast about. Any recovery is despite his efforts not because of them, blues just simply have to accept that if Gordon Brown was Dr Evil, then Osborne is Mini-me.
    You are wrong to assume that borrowing is "stubbornly refusing to decline".

    A cursory look at Tuesday's ONS Public Sector Finances bulletin will show that whilst the deficit rose above prior year levels during the middle two quarters of 2012, it fell most rapidly in the fourth quarter.

    Now we know that continued deficit reduction has been possible on a quarterly growth rate of 0.3%, the fiscal mandate forecasts (deficit reduction and debt to GDP ratios) will be revised accordingly.

    Obviously more time is needed to assimilate the recent information and its impact on medium term performance but the early indications, from the OBR report on the PSF figures, are that the Q1 borrowing figures were overstated (see all the stuff on accruals which I quoted on Wednesday).

    The deficit reduction bus is not therefore stationary, Mr. Brooke. Nor too is it speeding. It is therefore safe for you to alight.

    chortle, a beautiful analogy Mr Pole, but the bus is now running 2 years late because the driver spent so much time in the depot choosing furry dice and go faster stripes he forgot he was actually supposed to make the bus move. And he can never catch the time back.
    Considering the bus had been hurtling fast into a brick wall under the previous drivers Gordon and Alistair the fact its not crashed yet and is now in reverse is enough to satisfy me. Especially given we can look outside the bus windows to the hideous and mangled wreckages of Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain, Cyprus etc and think "there but for the grace of George go I".
    Oh to be so easily pleased. Was it not George who told us all is well and that his driving skills were second to none ? As a passenger you have the right to a refund.
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    Guessing REd won't be jumping on a plane to congratulate Hollande then.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Peter_2 said:

    Guessing REd won't be jumping on a plane to congratulate Hollande then.
    It was the Eurostar darling. Congratulations Francois - we are part of the new anti-austerity....

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited April 2013
    Support for a General Strike:

    OA (Lab VI)
    Support: 27 (49)
    Oppose: 57 (33)
    Net: -30 (+16)

    Labour Party should:
    Support Strike: 21 (35)
    Oppose Strike: 40 (19)
    Net: -19 (+16)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ygm9ycbkmq/YG-Archive-Strike-results-230413.pdf

    Pick the bones out of that, Ed.....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    taffys said:

    The UK's banks are being told to stick and twist at the same time. Lend more, but be much more conservative in your risk taking at the same time.

    Meanwhile past lending is being hammered by misselling fines.

    New players are nowhere to be seen because the regulatory barriers are very high, even though many companies have more cash than they know what to do with.

    That should read "past misselling is being hammered by fines ". As indeed it should be indeed we ought to beasking why the perpetrators aren't facing a jail sentence or a lifetime ban from the industry.
This discussion has been closed.