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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prorogue debate is a red herring: the question is No Deal

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 20 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prorogue debate is a red herring: the question is No Deal or No Confidence

Rarely can there have been such a disparity between the apparent dullness of the procedural minutiae of an amendment to a technical Bill about Northern Ireland, and the breathless attention paid it by the political commentariat as there was this week. Wrongly.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319
    edited July 20
    Boris will of course insist on No Deal over further extension or revoke and No Brexit at all and dare MPs to back a vote of no confidence in his Government.

    With a new poll today having 48% of voters in marginal seats in the East Midlands backing No Deal (more than the 33% for revoke and the 5% for further extension combined) as well as 46% of voters in marginal seats in the North West backing No Deal (again more than the 34% for revoke and the 4% for further extension combined) Boris will be confident of facing Corbyn on a ticket to deliver Brexit with him or risk no Brexit with Corbyn in enough Labour Leave marginals to deliver him a Tory majority

    https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-uk-brexit-divide-deepens-as-voters-move-to-the-extremes/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,502
    Fascinating read. Thanks David :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Thanks, the best political analysis on the web.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,712
    HYUFD - you've given me a bloody good laugh on the previous thread.

    Geography isn't exactly your strong point is it?

    Anyhow, in anticipation of things kicking off in the Straits of Hormuz, the Emiratis have built a fecking huge oil terminal in Fujairah, with the oil moving there by pipeline. Clever folk.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,502
    edited July 20

    HYUFD - you've given me a bloody good laugh on the previous thread.

    Geography isn't exactly your strong point is it?

    Anyhow, in anticipation of things kicking off in the Straits of Hormuz, the Emiratis have built a fecking huge oil terminal in Fujairah, with the oil moving there by pipeline. Clever folk.

    And one of our friends in the region.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,662
    This whole thing seems to be assuming that Boris will actually *try* to get a no-preparation, no-deal exit. The reason to believe this is that in the absence of a change to the backstop, which he said was on the cards but isn't really, he told Tory members whose votes he needed to become Prime Minister that this was what he was going to do.

    The reason to believe he won't do it is because it would crash the economy, destroy the Conservative Party's reputation for competence, reboot The Troubles, and quite possibly ultimately result in an independent Scotland, and united Ireland, and rejoining the EU. Not to mention, it doesn't get him off the hook with angry brexitters, because against this backdrop he then has to try to negotiate a trade deal with the EU, which has all the same problems as negotiating the WA, and they'll be just as unimpressed by that as they were by the WA.

    The upshot is that he probably doesn't want to do this, but he would also rather somebody else take responsibility for him not doing it. That's where these parliamentary maneuvers come in.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540
    What a sorry pass we have all been led to by the decades-long Tory party wank-fest over leaving the EU?

    One thought that occurred to me reading the lead is that an election with a no deal Brexit in the middle of it is probably Corbyn’s best, if not only, chance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540

    This whole thing seems to be assuming that Boris will actually *try* to get a no-preparation, no-deal exit. The reason to believe this is that in the absence of a change to the backstop, which he said was on the cards but isn't really, he told Tory members whose votes he needed to become Prime Minister that this was what he was going to do.

    The reason to believe he won't do it is because it would crash the economy, destroy the Conservative Party's reputation for competence, reboot The Troubles, and quite possibly ultimately result in an independent Scotland, and united Ireland, and rejoining the EU. Not to mention, it doesn't get him off the hook with angry brexitters, because against this backdrop he then has to try to negotiate a trade deal with the EU, which has all the same problems as negotiating the WA, and they'll be just as unimpressed by that as they were by the WA.

    The upshot is that he probably doesn't want to do this, but he would also rather somebody else take responsibility for him not doing it. That's where these parliamentary maneuvers come in.

    A good point. There wasn’t a lot of analysis at the time about how it suited May’s government for the MPs to be throwing obstacles in her way. Similar considerations apply to the great Bozo in spades. He won’t mind extending, provided he is forced to it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,662
    IanB2 said:

    One thought that occurred to me reading the lead is that an election with a no deal Brexit in the middle of it is probably Corbyn’s best, if not only, chance.

    Which in turn is a reason to think Boris will avoid having one. If a No Deal Brexit would result in him losing his majority, he'll avoid a No Deal Brexit, Macron-permitting.

    The autumn isn't crunch time unless Boris Johnson volunteers to be crunched.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,858
    "And that’s what it probably comes down to: No Deal or No Confidence. Any Tory MPs thinking of rebelling need to understand that to prevent No Deal they will very likely need to vote to put Corbyn into Number 10 to do so. All else will either not be enough or won’t gain the necessary support."

    If they VoNC now, then the election would be before Brexit. But they can't tarry. A VoNC in September is almost certainly too late.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,062
    So if parliament couldn’t block No Deal, why the fuss over prorogation? Good question. My guess is that it’s a mental distraction exercise among MPs who really don’t want to face up to the reality and remain – for now – to shadow-box within the confines of the Spring Brexit debates.

    A brutal assessment of our MPs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,004
    Brilliant level-headed assessment from David.

    And so this week we enter the Borisic Age. It may not be one of the longer elements of the political time scale, but could still be marked by mighty moves of the techtonic plates. Expect earthquakes and tsunamis, as the UK moves away from Europe.....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,712
    On topic (Now that I'm back from the Bhangra):

    A successful VONC followed by a Government of National Unity to prevent a No Deal Brexit by whatever means necessary would appear to be the least worst option.

    Hilary Benn, Ken Clarke or Caroline Lucas - your time for stardom is near.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,909
    Good morning, everyone.

    Good article, Mr. Herdson. MPs faffing about pointlessly sums up much of recent years.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,068
    Thank you David Herdson for a thought-provoking header.

    If Parliament were to pass a no confidence vote and we get a general election, and if that election returned a Corbyn led government, what then? Corbyn won't revoke unless the Labour manifesto promised to do so, which it wouldn't have done because it would not be elected with such a promise. The new government would have to offer another referendum, having obtained a further extension from the EU. But asking what? It would have to be leave with no deal versus revoke, i.e. a more specific version of the 2016 vote. Back to square one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,004

    Good morning, everyone.

    Good article, Mr. Herdson. MPs faffing about pointlessly sums up much of recent years.

    2015-2019 - The Farage and Faffage Years....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,858

    On topic (Now that I'm back from the Bhangra):

    A successful VONC followed by a Government of National Unity to prevent a No Deal Brexit by whatever means necessary would appear to be the least worst option.

    Hilary Benn, Ken Clarke or Caroline Lucas - your time for stardom is near.

    As @Philip_Thompson correctly notes, Corbyn would want to be PM in the GoNAFAE. But it's hard to imagine a Grieve or a Soubry or a Greening handing him the keys to Number Ten. Simply, they could not support him in a GoNAFAE.

    Therefore, one of two things have to happen. Either a compromise temporary PM needs to be found, or there would need to be an election. If there was still plenty of time until the election (i.e. the VoNC was this month), then I think the second option wins.

    But if time is limited, Corbyn would be forced to choose being blamed for "a Tory No Deal Brexit" and backing an interim PM.

    Now, I think his interest is in choosing the latter option. But he'd have conditions. I think it would need to be a Labour MP, and one planning on stepping down at the next election. Hillary Benn is an interesting call. But I think PBers should also look at former Labour whip, Nick Brown. He's personally quite moderate, but has good relations with Jeremy Corbyn.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 20
    rcs1000 said:

    "And that’s what it probably comes down to: No Deal or No Confidence. Any Tory MPs thinking of rebelling need to understand that to prevent No Deal they will very likely need to vote to put Corbyn into Number 10 to do so. All else will either not be enough or won’t gain the necessary support."

    If they VoNC now, then the election would be before Brexit. But they can't tarry. A VoNC in September is almost certainly too late.

    VoNC whom though? Boris is due to become prime minister on Wednesday. The Commons rises for the summer recess on Thursday. Boris will not have finished appointing his new government before it is already too late. This is why the Conservative Party has drawn out its leadership contest: to ensure the new PM has eight weeks over the summer to shore up support.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,858
    geoffw said:

    Thank you David Herdson for a thought-provoking header.

    If Parliament were to pass a no confidence vote and we get a general election, and if that election returned a Corbyn led government, what then? Corbyn won't revoke unless the Labour manifesto promised to do so, which it wouldn't have done because it would not be elected with such a promise. The new government would have to offer another referendum, having obtained a further extension from the EU. But asking what? It would have to be leave with no deal versus revoke, i.e. a more specific version of the 2016 vote. Back to square one.

    Labour's policy is very clear*. If it's a Tory Brexit, they hate it, and believe the UK should Remain via a referendum. If it's a Labour Brexit, then there should be a referendum, but no one is to know what it is.

    * When I say "very clear", what I actually mean is "completely ridiculous"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I’m in a minority of one among all the insiders and colleagues whom I’ve consulted on this, but I think that, before early October, there’s a chance Johnson might of his own volition call a general election. There are strong arguments against: best to leave the EU first and kill the Brexit Party; there is a huge risk of a civil war within the Conservative Party over the manifesto promise on Brexit; a rash of deselections . . . all real, all a nightmare, I concede. But behind all these objections lies the assumption that Johnson has a choice. If, though, he fears a lost confidence vote is coming anyway then better, surely, to go on to the front foot. “I want your mandate” would be the call. However short, the post-coronation honeymoon might be long enough for one bold act, and would be the best time to risk it.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-can-be-no-boris-honeymoon-for-remainers-m0jrqxkp5
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 273
    A brilliant summary David of the blindingly obvious which the Westminster village and their chums in the media seem to have completely avoided admitting for weeks. One thing I suspect which will happen in the coming weeks once the new Government is put in place will be a succession of former or by then, former Ministers announcing their retirement at the General Election. Theresa May, Philip Hammond, Dominic Grieve, Oliver Letwin and others among the Remoaner wing of the Tory party will realise the game is up, either that or their Constituency Association Chairmen will make that clear to them.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    On topic (Now that I'm back from the Bhangra):

    A successful VONC followed by a Government of National Unity to prevent a No Deal Brexit by whatever means necessary would appear to be the least worst option.

    Hilary Benn, Ken Clarke or Caroline Lucas - your time for stardom is near.

    “National Unity” would be an ironic title as it would be despised by possibly the biggest majority of the county ever seen.

    The elites taking over mantra would be very powerful.

    LDs, Lab, The SNP and the Wets coming together to order and then lose another referendum.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,086

    Good morning, everyone.

    Good article, Mr. Herdson. MPs faffing about pointlessly sums up much of recent years.

    2015-2019 - The Farage and Faffage Years....
    The English votes for English laws years.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:

    I’m in a minority of one among all the insiders and colleagues whom I’ve consulted on this, but I think that, before early October, there’s a chance Johnson might of his own volition call a general election. There are strong arguments against: best to leave the EU first and kill the Brexit Party; there is a huge risk of a civil war within the Conservative Party over the manifesto promise on Brexit; a rash of deselections . . . all real, all a nightmare, I concede. But behind all these objections lies the assumption that Johnson has a choice. If, though, he fears a lost confidence vote is coming anyway then better, surely, to go on to the front foot. “I want your mandate” would be the call. However short, the post-coronation honeymoon might be long enough for one bold act, and would be the best time to risk it.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-can-be-no-boris-honeymoon-for-remainers-m0jrqxkp5

    Brushing over the FTPA...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,742
    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Meanwhile .....

    At the Brecon & Radnor by-election the LibDem candidate is accused of visiting a brewery just outside the constituency whereas the yellow peril retort that the Conservatives couldn't organise a piss up in said brewery.

    Still .. (geddit ..) perhaps the Tories might end up drunk as a lord (hhmmm ... ) if they find their electoral pint glasses more than half full in the early hours of 2nd August.

    http://www.brecon-radnor.co.uk/article.cfm?id=110961&headline=Rivals claim Lib Dem doesn't know where she is after distillery visit&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2019
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,086

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Exactly.

    Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540

    rcs1000 said:

    "And that’s what it probably comes down to: No Deal or No Confidence. Any Tory MPs thinking of rebelling need to understand that to prevent No Deal they will very likely need to vote to put Corbyn into Number 10 to do so. All else will either not be enough or won’t gain the necessary support."

    If they VoNC now, then the election would be before Brexit. But they can't tarry. A VoNC in September is almost certainly too late.

    VoNC whom though? Boris is due to become prime minister on Wednesday. The Commons rises for the summer recess on Thursday. Boris will not have finished appointing his new government before it is already too late. This is why the Conservative Party has drawn out its leadership contest: to ensure the new PM has eight weeks over the summer to shore up support.
    They can waste his honeymoon on a period when it will be of no electoral use.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,086
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    I’m in a minority of one among all the insiders and colleagues whom I’ve consulted on this, but I think that, before early October, there’s a chance Johnson might of his own volition call a general election. There are strong arguments against: best to leave the EU first and kill the Brexit Party; there is a huge risk of a civil war within the Conservative Party over the manifesto promise on Brexit; a rash of deselections . . . all real, all a nightmare, I concede. But behind all these objections lies the assumption that Johnson has a choice. If, though, he fears a lost confidence vote is coming anyway then better, surely, to go on to the front foot. “I want your mandate” would be the call. However short, the post-coronation honeymoon might be long enough for one bold act, and would be the best time to risk it.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-can-be-no-boris-honeymoon-for-remainers-m0jrqxkp5

    Brushing over the FTPA...
    Nope. If Corbyn doesn’t three line whip to support a GE he will look like a coward and a fool.

    If Johnson wants a GE, he’ll get it. It might be the only thing he ever gets as PM.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540

    Brilliant level-headed assessment from David.

    And so this week we enter the Borisic Age. It may not be one of the longer elements of the political time scale, but could still be marked by mighty moves of the techtonic plates. Expect earthquakes and tsunamis, as the UK moves away from Europe.....


    Bozoic, surely.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 1,706

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Thank you Mike for the clarification. I'm not quite sure what David was thinking when he wrote that but he was wrong. As you state, a successful VONC does NOT put Corbyn into No.10 so it's completely wrong to suggest that Cons MPs voting for it are voting for Corbyn as PM. This is a non sequitur. Hopefully anyone reading the piece will realise the error.

    It's also not the case that there's insufficient time for an Election before Brexit day. One could be called next week or early September. I'm not suggesting it will be, simply that there would be time.

    Finally, the reason that commentators were so interested (excited) this week is because the vote 1) shut off a possible Boris route to No Deal and 2) sent a clear message of intent: a shot across the Johnson bow.

    I usually admire David Herdson's pieces. This isn't his strongest. But then, to be fair, these are febrile times. The sands shift daily and navigating a path across them is for soothsayers as much as geographers.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,662
    edited July 20
    rcs1000 said:


    But if time is limited, Corbyn would be forced to choose being blamed for "a Tory No Deal Brexit" and backing an interim PM.

    Now, I think his interest is in choosing the latter option. But he'd have conditions. I think it would need to be a Labour MP, and one planning on stepping down at the next election. Hillary Benn is an interesting call. But I think PBers should also look at former Labour whip, Nick Brown. He's personally quite moderate, but has good relations with Jeremy Corbyn.

    I can't read Corbyn well enough to say what *Corbyn* would do but if I were in Corbyn's shoes, provided it was strictly time-limited, I'd prefer a moderate Tory. Benefits:

    * Emphasize the Tory splits and make it harder for moderate Tories to vote for Boris
    * Avoid taking all the blame for the delay. Although we've seen the limits of triangulation, Corbyn has tried hard to avoid burning bridges with Labour Leavers, and although some of them will inevitably be lost by the whole operation of asking for an extension, better to put a Tory face on it than a Labour one
    * Stay in control of the Labour Party. With most of his MPs doubtless preferring the caretaker, and the membership being less enthusiastic about Corbyn than they were, why take the risk that they'll run away with the ball?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Exactly.

    Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
    Out of interest, what would happen if there was a VoNC passed in May on Monday?

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 1,706
    edited July 20
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    I’m in a minority of one among all the insiders and colleagues whom I’ve consulted on this, but I think that, before early October, there’s a chance Johnson might of his own volition call a general election. There are strong arguments against: best to leave the EU first and kill the Brexit Party; there is a huge risk of a civil war within the Conservative Party over the manifesto promise on Brexit; a rash of deselections . . . all real, all a nightmare, I concede. But behind all these objections lies the assumption that Johnson has a choice. If, though, he fears a lost confidence vote is coming anyway then better, surely, to go on to the front foot. “I want your mandate” would be the call. However short, the post-coronation honeymoon might be long enough for one bold act, and would be the best time to risk it.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-can-be-no-boris-honeymoon-for-remainers-m0jrqxkp5

    Brushing over the FTPA...
    We had this response y'day and I've no idea why you think it's valid. If Boris Johnson goes to Parliament there isn't the faintest chance he won't get the 2/3rds majority. He would get nearly 100% support for a GE. Which would mean no 5yr fixed term: we go to a GE.

    So what's your point?

    Will Boris actually do it? He probably should but I doubt it. He's too wrapped in his own Churchillian cloak of destiny to see that it might be his best, and possibly only, route to Brexit. And having seen Theresa May stuff up in 2017, who can blame him really?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 32,339
    We’ll leave without a deal on 31st October. From here, it’s important that the Brexit loons own every bit of what happens. Hard right English nationalism is a disease that can only be defeated by exposure to reality. It needs to be humiliated before it is eviscerated. Its consequences have to be fully worked through. That will mean a lot of pain for a lot of people, but that is the choice the former Conservative and Unionist Party has made.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,863

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    I think @david_herdson’s point is that by then it may be too late to stop Brexit. Would Jeremy Corbyn be willing after a vote of no confidence either to head a single issue government (extend Article 50 and then have a general election) or to let one form?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,201

    We’ll leave without a deal on 31st October. From here, it’s important that the Brexit loons own every bit of what happens. Hard right English nationalism is a disease that can only be defeated by exposure to reality. It needs to be humiliated before it is eviscerated. Its consequences have to be fully worked through. That will mean a lot of pain for a lot of people, but that is the choice the former Conservative and Unionist Party has made.

    Whilst we also lob a few cruise missiles at Iran to keep trump happy according to our resident Tory expert
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    alex. said:

    Out of interest, what would happen if there was a VoNC passed in May on Monday?

    Chortle ....

    Mrs May would advise the Queen that Larry the cat should be sent for to kiss paws with her majesty and become the purrrrrrr-fect Prime Minister.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    alex. said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Exactly.

    Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
    Out of interest, what would happen if there was a VoNC passed in May on Monday?

    Boris would take over on Wednesday, but that will already happen, which is why May will not be VoNC'd. There's no point.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,742

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    I’m in a minority of one among all the insiders and colleagues whom I’ve consulted on this, but I think that, before early October, there’s a chance Johnson might of his own volition call a general election. There are strong arguments against: best to leave the EU first and kill the Brexit Party; there is a huge risk of a civil war within the Conservative Party over the manifesto promise on Brexit; a rash of deselections . . . all real, all a nightmare, I concede. But behind all these objections lies the assumption that Johnson has a choice. If, though, he fears a lost confidence vote is coming anyway then better, surely, to go on to the front foot. “I want your mandate” would be the call. However short, the post-coronation honeymoon might be long enough for one bold act, and would be the best time to risk it.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-can-be-no-boris-honeymoon-for-remainers-m0jrqxkp5

    Brushing over the FTPA...
    Nope. If Corbyn doesn’t three line whip to support a GE he will look like a coward and a fool.

    If Johnson wants a GE, he’ll get it. It might be the only thing he ever gets as PM.
    Not sure about that. Under the FTPA 433 MPs would have to back it. Sinn Fein don't sit, the SNP stood aside last time and would likely do the same, those who switched to CHUK wouldn't want to lose their seats. and many remainer CON MPs would not necessarily follow suit. because of questions that they could be reselected.

    The many LAB MPs who hate Corbyn wouldn't necessarily follow a move that could put him into Number 10.

    The only party that would back it wholeheartedly would be the LDs and there are only 12 of them
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,858

    rcs1000 said:


    But if time is limited, Corbyn would be forced to choose being blamed for "a Tory No Deal Brexit" and backing an interim PM.

    Now, I think his interest is in choosing the latter option. But he'd have conditions. I think it would need to be a Labour MP, and one planning on stepping down at the next election. Hillary Benn is an interesting call. But I think PBers should also look at former Labour whip, Nick Brown. He's personally quite moderate, but has good relations with Jeremy Corbyn.

    I can't read Corbyn well enough to say what *Corbyn* would do but if I were in Corbyn's shoes, provided it was strictly time-limited, I'd prefer a moderate Tory. Benefits:

    * Emphasize the Tory splits and make it harder for moderate Tories to vote for Boris
    * Avoid taking all the blame for the delay. Although we've seen the limits of triangulation, Corbyn has tried hard to avoid burning bridges with Labour Leavers, and although some of them will inevitably be lost by the whole operation of asking for an extension, better to put a Tory face on it than a Labour one
    * Stay in control of the Labour Party. With most of his MPs doubtless preferring the caretaker, and the membership being less enthusiastic about Corbyn than they were, why take the risk that they'll run away with the ball?
    Hmmm: what about former Conservative MP Anna Soubry?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,909
    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,662

    We had this response y'day and I've no idea why you think it's valid. If Boris Johnson goes to Parliament there isn't the faintest chance he won't get the 2/3rds majority. He would get nearly 100% support for a GE. Which would mean no 5yr fixed term: we go to a GE.

    Conceivably Corbyn would say that the time remaining after the proposed election was too short for the necessary renegotiation that both he and Boris were promising and that it was irresponsible to leave business with the October deadline hanging over them for the duration of the campaign so go get an extension first, then he'll vote for the election.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Exactly.

    Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
    Out of interest, what would happen if there was a VoNC passed in May on Monday?

    Boris would take over on Wednesday, but that will already happen, which is why May will not be VoNC'd. There's no point.
    I’m just trying to understand the relationship between a VoNC and appointment of PMs. If May is VonC’d and resigns then the Queens is free to appoint Johnson, even if he cannot get the VoNC rescinded in the following 14 days. But if Johnson (as appointed PM) is VonC’d then the Queen cannot appoint anyone else unless he formally resigns ?

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,086
    Looks like Ed Davey’s had it. Shadsy now prices him at 5/1 (from 7/2). Swinson at 1/8.

    Unforced error by the Lib Dem’s at a time when they really ought to be footsure.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,073
    nichomar said:

    We’ll leave without a deal on 31st October. From here, it’s important that the Brexit loons own every bit of what happens. Hard right English nationalism is a disease that can only be defeated by exposure to reality. It needs to be humiliated before it is eviscerated. Its consequences have to be fully worked through. That will mean a lot of pain for a lot of people, but that is the choice the former Conservative and Unionist Party has made.

    Whilst we also lob a few cruise missiles at Iran to keep trump happy according to our resident Tory expert
    The SoH is too shallow for Astute ops and the T45s didn't get strike length VLS launchers to save money so TLAM strikes aren't an option unless we ask the US to do them for us.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,662
    rcs1000 said:

    Hmmm: what about former Conservative MP Anna Soubry?

    I would be inclined avoid one of the already-defected Tiggers, firstly because you don't want to big up a centrist who might resume the new party project and snaffle more of your guys, and secondly because that has less impact as a new Tory split. Better to go with Grieve or Clarke or some similar grandee who could do the job in hand then retire to the Lords.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 32,339

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    I think @david_herdson’s point is that by then it may be too late to stop Brexit. Would Jeremy Corbyn be willing after a vote of no confidence either to head a single issue government (extend Article 50 and then have a general election) or to let one form?

    More realistically, are there enough Labour MPs willing to by-pass Corbyn and help to create a single issue national government? The answer is No.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,086
    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    We’ll leave without a deal on 31st October. From here, it’s important that the Brexit loons own every bit of what happens. Hard right English nationalism is a disease that can only be defeated by exposure to reality. It needs to be humiliated before it is eviscerated. Its consequences have to be fully worked through. That will mean a lot of pain for a lot of people, but that is the choice the former Conservative and Unionist Party has made.

    Whilst we also lob a few cruise missiles at Iran to keep trump happy according to our resident Tory expert
    The SoH is too shallow for Astute ops and the T45s didn't get strike length VLS launchers to save money so TLAM strikes aren't an option unless we ask the US to do them for us.
    Britain rooling the waves was an awful long time ago. The RN would have a hard time preventing a bar brawl, let alone projecting London’s power.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,271
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Exactly.

    Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
    Out of interest, what would happen if there was a VoNC passed in May on Monday?

    Boris would take over on Wednesday, but that will already happen, which is why May will not be VoNC'd. There's no point.
    I’m just trying to understand the relationship between a VoNC and appointment of PMs. If May is VonC’d and resigns then the Queens is free to appoint Johnson, even if he cannot get the VoNC rescinded in the following 14 days. But if Johnson (as appointed PM) is VonC’d then the Queen cannot appoint anyone else unless he formally resigns ?

    After of VonC there is a 14 day period in which a confidence motion needs to be passed. Either the existing PM has a go, or they advise HMQ that they can't not but someone else may be able to.

    That person is appointed PM, the 14 day clock continues to run down. If this person fails to pass a confidence motion in that time, we have a GE.

    Her majesty's government is always in existence, there is always a PM, no interregnums
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 3,079

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    After a VONC surely anyone, including Corbyn, can become PM, but only if they can demonstrate to the Queen that they have the confidence of the house? Whether he has a chance to gain that support or not will depend on events, timing and his approach.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 20

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Exactly.

    Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
    Out of interest, what would happen if there was a VoNC passed in May on Monday?

    Boris would take over on Wednesday, but that will already happen, which is why May will not be VoNC'd. There's no point.
    I’m just trying to understand the relationship between a VoNC and appointment of PMs. If May is VonC’d and resigns then the Queens is free to appoint Johnson, even if he cannot get the VoNC rescinded in the following 14 days. But if Johnson (as appointed PM) is VonC’d then the Queen cannot appoint anyone else unless he formally resigns ?

    After of VonC there is a 14 day period in which a confidence motion needs to be passed. Either the existing PM has a go, or they advise HMQ that they can't not but someone else may be able to.

    That person is appointed PM, the 14 day clock continues to run down. If this person fails to pass a confidence motion in that time, we have a GE.

    Her majesty's government is always in existence, there is always a PM, no interregnums
    So if a PM is no confidenced they can force an election by refusing to recommend anyone else?

    And not that it will happen, but theoretically May could effectively force an election if the Tories wanted Johnson as PM?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 32,339

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Exactly.

    Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
    Out of interest, what would happen if there was a VoNC passed in May on Monday?

    Boris would take over on Wednesday, but that will already happen, which is why May will not be VoNC'd. There's no point.
    I’m just trying to understand the relationship between a VoNC and appointment of PMs. If May is VonC’d and resigns then the Queens is free to appoint Johnson, even if he cannot get the VoNC rescinded in the following 14 days. But if Johnson (as appointed PM) is VonC’d then the Queen cannot appoint anyone else unless he formally resigns ?

    It is not the prime minister who is VoNC'd but the government he or she leads. The Queen does not really appoint PMs except as a formality; the outgoing PM makes the selection, and even that is a formality 99 times out of a 100. May will not be VoNC'd because everyone knows she has only a few days left. Boris almost certainly will not be because there is simply not the time before the House rises for its summer break.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,245

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Thank you Mike for the clarification. I'm not quite sure what David was thinking when he wrote that but he was wrong. As you state, a successful VONC does NOT put Corbyn into No.10 so it's completely wrong to suggest that Cons MPs voting for it are voting for Corbyn as PM. This is a non sequitur. Hopefully anyone reading the piece will realise the error...
    Did you even read the piece ?
    Here’s what David actually said:
    although the natural consequence of MPs voting to bring down Boris (especially in October), is that they must be prepared to install someone else, and in reality that means Jeremy Corbyn...

    IOW he thinks a VONC followed by two weeks of failure to install a temporary PM just isn’t going to happen.

    A general election prior to Brexit is a third possibility, I’ll grant, but I agree with David that it is exceedingly unlikely to be through this route.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540
    edited July 20

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Exactly.

    Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
    Out of interest, what would happen if there was a VoNC passed in May on Monday?

    Boris would take over on Wednesday, but that will already happen, which is why May will not be VoNC'd. There's no point.
    I’m just trying to understand the relationship between a VoNC and appointment of PMs. If May is VonC’d and resigns then the Queens is free to appoint Johnson, even if he cannot get the VoNC rescinded in the following 14 days. But if Johnson (as appointed PM) is VonC’d then the Queen cannot appoint anyone else unless he formally resigns ?

    After of VonC there is a 14 day period in which a confidence motion needs to be passed. Either the existing PM has a go, or they advise HMQ that they can't not but someone else may be able to.

    That person is appointed PM, the 14 day clock continues to run down. If this person fails to pass a confidence motion in that time, we have a GE.

    Her majesty's government is always in existence, there is always a PM, no interregnums
    The Act is actually written in a bald and straightforward way - there is less procedure in it than some people imagine.

    Section 2 simply requires an election if no vote of confidence is passed within the 14 days. The Act does not prevent a succession of people attempting to form a government and trying to secure such a motion within that period (so the statement above that if the new PM fails there is then an election isn't based on the legislation).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    Do you get a pound every time you post “English Nationalist” ? You mean pro Brexit of course.

    It’s like a Nat posting “Westminster” when they mean “ English B’stards”
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 3,079

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    They own it and are responsible, not 100% though. May for selling it badly and alienating people, Labour leavers for not getting over May ignoring them, Labour leadership for playing party games, LD and Change for risking no deal by not voting for anything in the indicative votes all have responsibility too. Not to mention the public for voting for Brexit.

    If Corbyn does agree to a GE the timing of which guarantees no deal, without asking for an extension first then him and the Labour party would significantly move up the responsibility/blame list.

  • felixfelix Posts: 9,250

    Looks like Ed Davey’s had it. Shadsy now prices him at 5/1 (from 7/2). Swinson at 1/8.

    Unforced error by the Lib Dem’s at a time when they really ought to be footsure.

    Was this his suggestion of support for a Corbyn government or something else?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 3,079
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    Do you get a pound every time you post “English Nationalist” ? You mean pro Brexit of course.

    It’s like a Nat posting “Westminster” when they mean “ English B’stards”
    Look, we all know the correct terms are diehard English Nationalist and diehard English B'stards.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,271
    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Exactly.

    Herdson’s PM Corbyn angle is just him being provocative. We know a straw man when we see one.
    Out of interest, what would happen if there was a VoNC passed in May on Monday?

    Boris would take over on Wednesday, but that will already happen, which is why May will not be VoNC'd. There's no point.
    I’m just trying to understand the relationship between a VoNC and appointment of PMs. If May is VonC’d and resigns then the Queens is free to appoint Johnson, even if he cannot get the VoNC rescinded in the following 14 days. But if Johnson (as appointed PM) is VonC’d then the Queen cannot appoint anyone else unless he formally resigns ?

    After of VonC there is a 14 day period in which a confidence motion needs to be passed. Either the existing PM has a go, or they advise HMQ that they can't not but someone else may be able to.

    That person is appointed PM, the 14 day clock continues to run down. If this person fails to pass a confidence motion in that time, we have a GE.

    Her majesty's government is always in existence, there is always a PM, no interregnums
    The Act is actually written in a bald and straightforward way - there is less procedure in it than some people imagine.

    Section 2 simply requires an election if no vote of confidence is passed within the 14 days. The Act does not prevent a succession of people attempting to form a government and trying to secure such a motion within that period (so the statement above that if the new PM fails there is then an election isn't based on the legislation).
    But the motion is of confidence in HMs Government. Doesn't that mean in order to test the confidence of the house you already require to have kissed her hand and be PM?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,626
    O/t perhaps, but what has happened to BoJo's girl-friend lately? She seems to have vanished from public view! Or is it beause I'm on holiday and only spasmodically glancing at the news and have missed the references?

    Who is picking the new cutains for No 10?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,068
    Boris or Solomon Grundy:
    An MP on Monday,
    Elected on Tuesday,
    PM on Wednesday,
    PMQs on Thursday,
    VoNC'd on Friday,
    Resigned on Saturday,
    Forgotten on Sunday,
    That was the end,
    Of Boris or Solomon Grundy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,909
    Mr. Observer, that makes no sense.

    We are where we are because:
    1) the electorate voted to leave
    2) the Commons voted to endorse that result
    3) May negotiated poorly and had appalling rhetoric
    4) the Commons voted repeatedly against her deal

    You can't simply wish away the fact that the majority of Conservative MPs backed leaving with a deal and a majority of all other MPs opposed it. If we're leaving and a deal is ruled out, that means leaving with no deal.

    If MPs had a majority for an alternative (say, a referendum or straight revocation) that would be something. But opposing everything when the legal default is leaving without a deal is to take actions that lead to no deal.

    Labour MPs had a say on deal or no deal. And they backed no deal.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,002
    Nigelb said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Thank you Mike for the clarification. I'm not quite sure what David was thinking when he wrote that but he was wrong. As you state, a successful VONC does NOT put Corbyn into No.10 so it's completely wrong to suggest that Cons MPs voting for it are voting for Corbyn as PM. This is a non sequitur. Hopefully anyone reading the piece will realise the error...
    Did you even read the piece ?
    Here’s what David actually said:
    although the natural consequence of MPs voting to bring down Boris (especially in October), is that they must be prepared to install someone else, and in reality that means Jeremy Corbyn...

    IOW he thinks a VONC followed by two weeks of failure to install a temporary PM just isn’t going to happen.

    A general election prior to Brexit is a third possibility, I’ll grant, but I agree with David that it is exceedingly unlikely to be through this route.
    But *in reality* that does not mean Corbyn. Corbyn doesn't command a majority in the house and neither the Queen nor any of her corgis are going to call him to be PM. At least not before a general election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540
    edited July 20
    Nigelb said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Thank you Mike for the clarification. I'm not quite sure what David was thinking when he wrote that but he was wrong. As you state, a successful VONC does NOT put Corbyn into No.10 so it's completely wrong to suggest that Cons MPs voting for it are voting for Corbyn as PM. This is a non sequitur. Hopefully anyone reading the piece will realise the error...
    Did you even read the piece ?
    Here’s what David actually said:
    although the natural consequence of MPs voting to bring down Boris (especially in October), is that they must be prepared to install someone else, and in reality that means Jeremy Corbyn...

    IOW he thinks a VONC followed by two weeks of failure to install a temporary PM just isn’t going to happen.

    A general election prior to Brexit is a third possibility, I’ll grant, but I agree with David that it is exceedingly unlikely to be through this route.
    Plan A will be to threaten a VONC in the hope that Bozo blinks and extends. If he doesn't blink, and the rebels don't blink, then proceeding to a VONC only makes sense if there is an agreed Plan B; otherwise it simply brings Bozo down but leads to no deal. On the assumption the rebels wont want to give Corbyn a chance, they need to identify someone else who can command a majority at least temporarily in order to do the one job of securing an extension, for either a GE or a referendum.

    The question is whether the Labour party officially - or a large bulk of Labour MPs unofficially - would settle for some Clarke/Cable/Benn type figure presiding over the GONU for a couple of weeks while this is done. If there's a GE at the end of it, they just might. Remember the alternatives are a no deal exit and the great Bozo remaining in power.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 32,339

    Mr. Observer, that makes no sense.

    We are where we are because:
    1) the electorate voted to leave
    2) the Commons voted to endorse that result
    3) May negotiated poorly and had appalling rhetoric
    4) the Commons voted repeatedly against her deal

    You can't simply wish away the fact that the majority of Conservative MPs backed leaving with a deal and a majority of all other MPs opposed it. If we're leaving and a deal is ruled out, that means leaving with no deal.

    If MPs had a majority for an alternative (say, a referendum or straight revocation) that would be something. But opposing everything when the legal default is leaving without a deal is to take actions that lead to no deal.

    Labour MPs had a say on deal or no deal. And they backed no deal.

    Good luck with that! Boris Johnson tells us No Deal will be cheap, easy and painless. It will happen on his watch after he has been overwhelmingly elected by Tory members. He and they will own all that happens.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 3,079
    Dadge said:

    Nigelb said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Thank you Mike for the clarification. I'm not quite sure what David was thinking when he wrote that but he was wrong. As you state, a successful VONC does NOT put Corbyn into No.10 so it's completely wrong to suggest that Cons MPs voting for it are voting for Corbyn as PM. This is a non sequitur. Hopefully anyone reading the piece will realise the error...
    Did you even read the piece ?
    Here’s what David actually said:
    although the natural consequence of MPs voting to bring down Boris (especially in October), is that they must be prepared to install someone else, and in reality that means Jeremy Corbyn...

    IOW he thinks a VONC followed by two weeks of failure to install a temporary PM just isn’t going to happen.

    A general election prior to Brexit is a third possibility, I’ll grant, but I agree with David that it is exceedingly unlikely to be through this route.
    But *in reality* that does not mean Corbyn. Corbyn doesn't command a majority in the house and neither the Queen nor any of her corgis are going to call him to be PM. At least not before a general election.
    We live in volatile and unpredictable times yet people are searching for definites following a VoNC.

    I would guess if a VONC passes and:

    there is time to stop no deal afterwards - election 90% corbyn 2% others 8%
    there would need to be a temp govt to stop no deal - election 25% corbyn 20%, others 55%

    The timing is key and might be why people are coming up with conflicting answers.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,086

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    You know that, I know that, and they know that, but they’ll still try to argue that a big boy done it and ran away.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 32,339
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    Do you get a pound every time you post “English Nationalist” ? You mean pro Brexit of course.

    It’s like a Nat posting “Westminster” when they mean “ English B’stards”

    Brexit has been largely driven by right wing English nationalists. In the former Conservative and Unionist Party they are utterly dominant. At a political level, pro-Brexit and English nationalist are virtually inter-changeable. As we know, most Tory members would sacrifice the Union in order to secure Brexit.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    You know that, I know that, and they know that, but they’ll still try to argue that a big boy done it and ran away.
    “A big boy did it an ran away” is the SNP manifesto Stuart.

    I do understand your despair- trying to convince Scotland to vote to ditch the pound for the Euro will be an impossible task - especially with the backdrop of Salmond on trial for nefarious acts.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,201
    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    We’ll leave without a deal on 31st October. From here, it’s important that the Brexit loons own every bit of what happens. Hard right English nationalism is a disease that can only be defeated by exposure to reality. It needs to be humiliated before it is eviscerated. Its consequences have to be fully worked through. That will mean a lot of pain for a lot of people, but that is the choice the former Conservative and Unionist Party has made.

    Whilst we also lob a few cruise missiles at Iran to keep trump happy according to our resident Tory expert
    The SoH is too shallow for Astute ops and the T45s didn't get strike length VLS launchers to save money so TLAM strikes aren't an option unless we ask the US to do them for us.
    I bow to your superior knowledge our resident Tory experts military knowledge is as good as his geography.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540

    Dadge said:

    Nigelb said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    s in a position after the election to form a government

    Thank you Mike for the clarification. I'm not quite sure what David was thinking when he wrote that but he was wrong. As you state, a successful VONC does NOT put Corbyn into No.10 so it's completely wrong to suggest that Cons MPs voting for it are voting for Corbyn as PM. This is a non sequitur. Hopefully anyone reading the piece will realise the error...
    Did you even read the piece ?
    Here’s what David actually said:
    although the natural consequence of MPs voting to bring down Boris (especially in October), is that they must be prepared to install someone else, and in reality that means Jeremy Corbyn...

    IOW he thinks a VONC followed by two weeks of failure to install a temporary PM just isn’t going to happen.

    A general election prior to Brexit is a third possibility, I’ll grant, but I agree with David that it is exceedingly unlikely to be through this route.
    But *in reality* that does not mean Corbyn. Corbyn doesn't command a majority in the house and neither the Queen nor any of her corgis are going to call him to be PM. At least not before a general election.
    We live in volatile and unpredictable times yet people are searching for definites following a VoNC.

    I would guess if a VONC passes and:

    there is time to stop no deal afterwards - election 90% corbyn 2% others 8%
    there would need to be a temp govt to stop no deal - election 25% corbyn 20%, others 55%

    The timing is key and might be why people are coming up with conflicting answers.

    If there is an alternative candidate - either a Tory who could command the Tory/DUP bloc (unlikely immediately after Tory members had chosen Bozo) or another figure identified by a cross-party majority, the outgoing PM (May or Bozo depending on the timing) would have to advise HMQ to give that person a go at securing a confidence vote. Otherwise Corbyn as LOTO would be seen as having the right to demand a chance. If Corbyn fails (and there is a small chance of Tory rebels abstaining and giving him long enough to secure an extension and referendum), and no other cross-party candidate emerges at that stage, there would be an election.


    In "normal" circumstances an election would be more likely than a temporary GONU. But in the unusual circumstances of the catastrophe of a no deal crashout only days away, it isn't unreasonable to uprate the probabilities of what would otherwise be unlikely options.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Thank you Mike for the clarification. I'm not quite sure what David was thinking when he wrote that but he was wrong. As you state, a successful VONC does NOT put Corbyn into No.10 so it's completely wrong to suggest that Cons MPs voting for it are voting for Corbyn as PM. This is a non sequitur. Hopefully anyone reading the piece will realise the error...
    Did you even read the piece ?
    Here’s what David actually said:
    although the natural consequence of MPs voting to bring down Boris (especially in October), is that they must be prepared to install someone else, and in reality that means Jeremy Corbyn...

    IOW he thinks a VONC followed by two weeks of failure to install a temporary PM just isn’t going to happen.

    A general election prior to Brexit is a third possibility, I’ll grant, but I agree with David that it is exceedingly unlikely to be through this route.
    Plan A will be to threaten a VONC in the hope that Bozo blinks and extends. If he doesn't blink, and the rebels don't blink, then proceeding to a VONC only makes sense if there is an agreed Plan B; otherwise it simply brings Bozo down but leads to no deal. On the assumption the rebels wont want to give Corbyn a chance, they need to identify someone else who can command a majority at least temporarily in order to do the one job of securing an extension, for either a GE or a referendum.

    The question is whether the Labour party officially - or a large bulk of Labour MPs unofficially - would settle for some Clarke/Cable/Benn type figure presiding over the GONU for a couple of weeks while this is done. If there's a GE at the end of it, they just might. Remember the alternatives are a no deal exit and the great Bozo remaining in power.
    But how does that happen if Johnson refuses to resign? Does the Queen actually have the power to sack a PM in favour of someone else?

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,630
    Mr Observer,

    Aren't facts tiresome? So is democracy sometimes.

    When MPs voted to enact the referendum result, they lied. Most had no intention of doing so, but didn't dare come out and say it at the time. Their tactic was delay, delay, delay, and to keep fighting the referendum campaign.

    The LDs, being superior beings, didn't bother with any fig leaves.

    At heart, many Remainers know that, as do most Leavers. That's why faith in MPs is at historic lows, and likely to remain so.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,742

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    After a VONC surely anyone, including Corbyn, can become PM, but only if they can demonstrate to the Queen that they have the confidence of the house? Whether he has a chance to gain that support or not will depend on events, timing and his approach.
    Clearly during the 14 day period anything can happen but the PM does not have to go. Once the period is over then there is a general election and he surely would like to go into that as PM
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,909
    Mr. Observer, oh, I agree entirely if we leave with no deal then Boris will, rightly, get practically all the blame for banging on about it and then going through with it.

    But the fact remains that we are where we are because MPs had the opportunity to back a deal (admittedly, a rubbish one) that May negotiated. They declined, by significant margins, three times. And this after most of them opposed leaving the EU but voted to endorse the referendum result.

    They've been infantile for years. The ERG are childish, but they're not the only ones.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 20
    Anyway, in other, “not sure they’ve thought through all the details” news....

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/20/labour-pledges-to-push-councils-into-taking-back-local-services
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 32,339

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    You know that, I know that, and they know that, but they’ll still try to argue that a big boy done it and ran away.

    Obviously, they will never admit it or take any responsibility, they’ll always blame someone else - foreigners, immigrants, the BBC, Labour, the LibDems, the SNP, the Irish, Remain supporters, the courts, etc etc; but the consequences will be the consequences. And those who decided on this outcome - the PM who allowed the UK to leave on 31st October, the MPs who supported him and the voters who put him in place - will be held to account for it by the electorate.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540
    CD13 said:

    Mr Observer,

    Aren't facts tiresome? So is democracy sometimes.

    When MPs voted to enact the referendum result, they lied. Most had no intention of doing so, but didn't dare come out and say it at the time. Their tactic was delay, delay, delay, and to keep fighting the referendum campaign.

    The LDs, being superior beings, didn't bother with any fig leaves.

    At heart, many Remainers know that, as do most Leavers. That's why faith in MPs is at historic lows, and likely to remain so.

    No, had leavers got behind the deal, it would have carried at the first attempt. What remainers feel now is very different from what they felt in the year or two after the referendum. The utter hash leavers have made of things since then has created a counter-reaction, which is clear from this year's polls and elections.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 3,079

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    After a VONC surely anyone, including Corbyn, can become PM, but only if they can demonstrate to the Queen that they have the confidence of the house? Whether he has a chance to gain that support or not will depend on events, timing and his approach.
    Clearly during the 14 day period anything can happen but the PM does not have to go. Once the period is over then there is a general election and he surely would like to go into that as PM
    So if a list of 330 MPs sign a letter supporting a candidate for PM, could Boris just decide to stay on and wait for the election regardless? Extraordinary if so.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,662
    The fun thing about the caretaker PM is that although they're appointed with the sole job of asking for an extension then calling an election, they remain PM until parliament can agree on a new PM, which having split the parties into four mutually-detesting quarters, could take until about 2039.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,971

    Dadge said:

    Nigelb said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    T
    Thanks None. I was beginning to think I was the only one to be getting a little confused here.

    Thank you too David for a truly excellent piece, even if (perhaps because) not everyone agrees or follows your logic. Thanks too for the many excellent responses. They illustrate why reading PB is as good as if not better than reading even the quality press on the subject.

    In short, I get the picture up to and including the VONC. In fact this is what I expect to happen. And I expect it to pass, because ND is the only alternative at that point and there aren't enough nutters in the house to take us into that except by accident (although such an accident remains an ever-present possibility.)

    So what next? Here I am really not sure, and perhaps the reason is relly that the anwer depends on timing and other factors (which might include public opinion, Macron, Boris himself and so on.)

    So maybe we take it one step at a time.....and very carefully?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,245
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    You know that, I know that, and they know that, but they’ll still try to argue that a big boy done it and ran away.
    “A big boy did it an ran away” is the SNP manifesto Stuart.

    I do understand your despair- trying to convince Scotland to vote to ditch the pound for the Euro will be an impossible task - especially with the backdrop of Salmond on trial for nefarious acts.

    Did you read the poll that HYUFD posted at the start of the thread ?
    Johnson is electoral cyanide in Scotland.

    The backdrop of a no deal Brexit under a Johnson government make another Indyref considerably more likely. Salmond is irrelevant to that.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,971
    Thanks None. I was beginning to think I was the only one to be getting a little confused here.

    Thank you too David for a truly excellent piece, even if (perhaps because) not everyone agrees or follows your logic. Thanks too for the many excellent responses. They illustrate why reading PB is as good as if not better than reading even the quality press on the subject.

    In short, I get the picture up to and including the VONC. In fact this is what I expect to happen. And I expect it to pass, because ND is the only alternative at that point and there aren't enough nutters in the house to take us into that except by accident (although such an accident remains an ever-present possibility.)

    So what next? Here I am really not sure, and perhaps the reason is relly that the anwer depends on timing and other factors (which might include public opinion, Macron, Boris himself and so on.)

    So maybe we take it one step at a time.....and very carefully?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540

    O/t perhaps, but what has happened to BoJo's girl-friend lately? She seems to have vanished from public view! Or is it beause I'm on holiday and only spasmodically glancing at the news and have missed the references?

    Who is picking the new cutains for No 10?

    One of the papers had a story that there was a determined attempt by some Tories to stop her moving into no. 10, fuelled by a combination of her track record (recently sacked by the party) and a premonition that it wasn't going to end happily.

    But ultimately it's up to Bozo alone.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 32,339

    Mr. Observer, oh, I agree entirely if we leave with no deal then Boris will, rightly, get practically all the blame for banging on about it and then going through with it.

    But the fact remains that we are where we are because MPs had the opportunity to back a deal (admittedly, a rubbish one) that May negotiated. They declined, by significant margins, three times. And this after most of them opposed leaving the EU but voted to endorse the referendum result.

    They've been infantile for years. The ERG are childish, but they're not the only ones.

    I totally agree that many people are responsible for where we are today. But it will be the PM who takes us out on No Deal, the MPs who supported him and the electorate who chose him that will own all that happens from 1st November onwards.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 3,079

    Mr. Observer, oh, I agree entirely if we leave with no deal then Boris will, rightly, get practically all the blame for banging on about it and then going through with it.

    But the fact remains that we are where we are because MPs had the opportunity to back a deal (admittedly, a rubbish one) that May negotiated. They declined, by significant margins, three times. And this after most of them opposed leaving the EU but voted to endorse the referendum result.

    They've been infantile for years. The ERG are childish, but they're not the only ones.

    I totally agree that many people are responsible for where we are today. But it will be the PM who takes us out on No Deal, the MPs who supported him and the electorate who chose him that will own all that happens from 1st November onwards.

    Surely if Corbyn blocks Benn becoming PM to stop no deal out of vanity, for example, you can see that remain floating voters are going to blame Labour as well?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    HYUFD said:

    Boris will of course insist on No Deal over further extension or revoke and No Brexit at all and dare MPs to back a vote of no confidence in his Government.

    With a new poll today having 48% of voters in marginal seats in the East Midlands backing No Deal (more than the 33% for revoke and the 5% for further extension combined) as well as 46% of voters in marginal seats in the North West backing No Deal (again more than the 34% for revoke and the 4% for further extension combined) Boris will be confident of facing Corbyn on a ticket to deliver Brexit with him or risk no Brexit with Corbyn in enough Labour Leave marginals to deliver him a Tory majority

    https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-uk-brexit-divide-deepens-as-voters-move-to-the-extremes/

    An amusing reading of a poll! A masterful extrapolation!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540

    Mr. Observer, oh, I agree entirely if we leave with no deal then Boris will, rightly, get practically all the blame for banging on about it and then going through with it.

    But the fact remains that we are where we are because MPs had the opportunity to back a deal (admittedly, a rubbish one) that May negotiated. They declined, by significant margins, three times. And this after most of them opposed leaving the EU but voted to endorse the referendum result.

    They've been infantile for years. The ERG are childish, but they're not the only ones.

    I totally agree that many people are responsible for where we are today. But it will be the PM who takes us out on No Deal, the MPs who supported him and the electorate who chose him that will own all that happens from 1st November onwards.

    With any luck both the old parties will be blamed for the pretty pass we have been brought to, ushering in new politics for our country.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,971
    IanB2 said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Observer,

    Aren't facts tiresome? So is democracy sometimes.

    When MPs voted to enact the referendum result, they lied. Most had no intention of doing so, but didn't dare come out and say it at the time. Their tactic was delay, delay, delay, and to keep fighting the referendum campaign.

    The LDs, being superior beings, didn't bother with any fig leaves.

    At heart, many Remainers know that, as do most Leavers. That's why faith in MPs is at historic lows, and likely to remain so.

    No, had leavers got behind the deal, it would have carried at the first attempt. What remainers feel now is very different from what they felt in the year or two after the referendum. The utter hash leavers have made of things since then has created a counter-reaction, which is clear from this year's polls and elections.
    You are both right.

    Lying is perhaps too strong a word but MPs were certainly less than honest with the public about the consequences of the referendum outcome and the alternative ways forward it implied. Otoh, it is certainly true that we would be out by now if Leavers had not bolloxed it up.

    They can't blame that on Remainers, no matter how 'diehard'.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,889
    Nigelb said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    You know that, I know that, and they know that, but they’ll still try to argue that a big boy done it and ran away.
    “A big boy did it an ran away” is the SNP manifesto Stuart.

    I do understand your despair- trying to convince Scotland to vote to ditch the pound for the Euro will be an impossible task - especially with the backdrop of Salmond on trial for nefarious acts.

    Did you read the poll that HYUFD posted at the start of the thread ?
    Johnson is electoral cyanide in Scotland.

    The backdrop of a no deal Brexit under a Johnson government make another Indyref considerably more likely. Salmond is irrelevant to that.

    Harry is still fighting the last war. In a fit of absent mindedness he'll probably start fear mongering about voting Yes being the way to remove our EU citizenship.

    Mind you, the way that Westminster (or 'English B’stards' as Harry would prefer) are fucking Brexit up, sticking with them might be the best bet for continuing EU membership.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 32,339
    CD13 said:

    Mr Observer,

    Aren't facts tiresome? So is democracy sometimes.

    When MPs voted to enact the referendum result, they lied. Most had no intention of doing so, but didn't dare come out and say it at the time. Their tactic was delay, delay, delay, and to keep fighting the referendum campaign.

    The LDs, being superior beings, didn't bother with any fig leaves.

    At heart, many Remainers know that, as do most Leavers. That's why faith in MPs is at historic lows, and likely to remain so.

    The most tiresome fact of all is that the Brexit Boris Johnson promised is not the Brexit Boris Johnson will deliver. That is his fault. No-one else is to blame. He and his supporters will own all that happens from 1st November onwards.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,630
    edited July 20
    There is a poem called "Superior" which matches the sneering attitude of some Remainers.

    It ends … "Your baby wants to catch the moon. She is so funny; she calls Ganesh Ganush. Mother, your baby is silly! She is so absurdly childish!"

    No need to waste democracy on them.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,004

    Dadge said:

    Nigelb said:

    If there is a successful VONC under the terms of the FTPA then Corbyn DOES NOT become PM. We wait for a fortnight and if the VONC is not rescinded there is a general election at which Boris would go into as PM.

    Corbyn only becomes PM if LAB is in a position after the election to form a government

    Thank you Mike for the clarification. I'm not quite sure what David was thinking when he wrote that but he was wrong. As you state, a successful VONC does NOT put Corbyn into No.10 so it's completely wrong to suggest that Cons MPs voting for it are voting for Corbyn as PM. This is a non sequitur. Hopefully anyone reading the piece will realise the error...
    Did you even read the piece ?
    Here’s what David actually said:
    although the natural consequence of MPs voting to bring down Boris (especially in October), is that they must be prepared to install someone else, and in reality that means Jeremy Corbyn...

    IOW he thinks a VONC followed by two weeks of failure to install a temporary PM just isn’t going to happen.

    A general election prior to Brexit is a third possibility, I’ll grant, but I agree with David that it is exceedingly unlikely to be through this route.
    But *in reality* that does not mean Corbyn. Corbyn doesn't command a majority in the house and neither the Queen nor any of her corgis are going to call him to be PM. At least not before a general election.
    We live in volatile and unpredictable times yet people are searching for definites following a VoNC.

    I would guess if a VONC passes and:

    there is time to stop no deal afterwards - election 90% corbyn 2% others 8%
    there would need to be a temp govt to stop no deal - election 25% corbyn 20%, others 55%

    The timing is key and might be why people are coming up with conflicting answers.

    Others aren't possible without the consent of either the Labour or Tory parties, unless hundreds of MPs defect from those parties.

    So are you suggesting there's a 55% chance Corbyn would back someone else over himself? Or a 55% chance that facing an election hundreds of MPs would abandon their parties?

    I'd think both are more like 0.5% chances.

    I'd say if there would need to be a temporary government to stop no deal:
    Corbyn 95% [surely MPs did the maths before passing the VONC]
    Election and No Deal during the election: 4% [oops!]
    Others 1%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,540

    Thanks None. I was beginning to think I was the only one to be getting a little confused here.

    Thank you too David for a truly excellent piece, even if (perhaps because) not everyone agrees or follows your logic. Thanks too for the many excellent responses. They illustrate why reading PB is as good as if not better than reading even the quality press on the subject.

    In short, I get the picture up to and including the VONC. In fact this is what I expect to happen. And I expect it to pass, because ND is the only alternative at that point and there aren't enough nutters in the house to take us into that except by accident (although such an accident remains an ever-present possibility.)

    So what next? Here I am really not sure, and perhaps the reason is relly that the anwer depends on timing and other factors (which might include public opinion, Macron, Boris himself and so on.)

    So maybe we take it one step at a time.....and very carefully?

    All that is in the Act following the successful VONC is a 14-day period, after which if there has been no successful VOC, there is an election.


    There isn't really any precedent, so what happens during that 14-day period will be up to discussion between the party leaders and the views of HMQ (in practice the trio of officials who advise her in such circumstances).

    I'd expect them to put securing some certainty and stability (at least temporarily) as the priority (one can imagine the state the markets would be in), hence there will be a lot of pressure on MPs to identify a potential new PM and tolerance for several "goes" at forming a government within the 14 days.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,004
    Good article Mr Herdson and I 100% agree with it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,086
    Nigelb said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Observer, that disregards that MPs voted to endorse the referendum result, and refused multiple times to back May's deal. (And, of course, the electorate voted to leave).

    Non-Conservative MPs had votes too, and the vast majority of them opposed the deal.

    Whatever has happened up to now, the English nationalist hard right that controls the Tories own No Deal Brexit and its consequences 100%. They will be responsible for its consequences.

    You know that, I know that, and they know that, but they’ll still try to argue that a big boy done it and ran away.
    “A big boy did it an ran away” is the SNP manifesto Stuart.

    I do understand your despair- trying to convince Scotland to vote to ditch the pound for the Euro will be an impossible task - especially with the backdrop of Salmond on trial for nefarious acts.

    Did you read the poll that HYUFD posted at the start of the thread ?
    Johnson is electoral cyanide in Scotland.

    The backdrop of a no deal Brexit under a Johnson government make another Indyref considerably more likely.
    “Johnson, the likely new prime minister, has achieved the remarkable feat of being less popular in Scotland than Nigel Farage. One poll last month found that his premiership would result in an increase in the pro-independence vote to 53%, eight points higher than in 2014.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/gordon-brown-save-britain-scotland
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,889
    CD13 said:

    There is a poem called "Superior" which matches the sneering attitude of some Leavers.

    It ends … "Your baby wants to catch the moon. She is so funny; she calls Ganesh Ganush. Mother, your baby is silly! She is so absurdly childish!"

    No need to waste democracy om them.

    Bit harsh on Leavers.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 32,339

    Mr. Observer, oh, I agree entirely if we leave with no deal then Boris will, rightly, get practically all the blame for banging on about it and then going through with it.

    But the fact remains that we are where we are because MPs had the opportunity to back a deal (admittedly, a rubbish one) that May negotiated. They declined, by significant margins, three times. And this after most of them opposed leaving the EU but voted to endorse the referendum result.

    They've been infantile for years. The ERG are childish, but they're not the only ones.

    I totally agree that many people are responsible for where we are today. But it will be the PM who takes us out on No Deal, the MPs who supported him and the electorate who chose him that will own all that happens from 1st November onwards.

    Surely if Corbyn blocks Benn becoming PM to stop no deal out of vanity, for example, you can see that remain floating voters are going to blame Labour as well?

    I don’t think this ends well for Labour under any circumstances. I can’t see the party being easily forgiven for inflicting Jeremy Corbyn on us at a time of such consequence.

This discussion has been closed.