I am struggling to see how he fills the payroll vote. If his mates get all the cabinet positions, how many are willing to accept demotions for what could a be govt of a couple of months. Maybe we dont need 150+ govt MPs, guessing a mix of doubling up roles and a few Lords will be needed.
og
I see what you mean, he really is cutting this fine. Once you've fired the Remainers, the May-dealers, the Hunt supporters, the pool that is left is pretty small and not exactly impressive. This is going to be a very fragile government. Suppose some of these late "big beasts" decide to go into the private sector? BoJo then faces some horrible by elections and gradually loses control over events.
Slimming down the payroll vote is no bad thing. Do we need so many departments and associated ministers?
Not very popular with wannabe ministers though, is it?
I do wonder whether we will soon see an attempt to found a successor party. There are some obvious problems:
- CHUK already tried and failed - They might be blamed for bringing down the government/letting in Corbyn - In the present situation, it's not necessary for the immediate goal of influencing the government, since a caucus can be formed within the Parliamentary conservative party.
However for the longer term, it's not obvious that the sane faction can do much within the existing party other than fight a losing battle, as they will be under threat from deselection. To provide a sane version of the conservatives, it may be necessary to 'dismiss the membership and elect another', IE, form a new party.
Some advantages: - Business, rather than the membership, has always been the major support of the party anyway. Businesses may be receptive to an alternative to Boris 'F*ck Business' Johnson. - 96,000 members may not me that hard to replace, given enough funding. - It should be fairly easy not to make the same mistakes as CHUK. Some obvious names, for example: 'Serious Conservatives' , 'Sensible Conservatives', or even 'Sane Conservatives' (Not sure what the Electoral Commission rules are exactly, but they don't seem to completely object to other parties with 'Conservative' or 'Labour' in the name). - Boris will need a coalition with someone, and may actually not mind giving up the 31st Oct date as long as someone else forces him to do so.
One thing the CHUKkers proves though, is that a few defectors is not enough. It has to be a mass exodus or nothing. How many MPs are up for it?
There is a reasonably plausible route to this happening.
Ruth Davidson stares into the electoral abyss of a Boris-led Conservative party in Scotland, and realises the only way to salvage her lifetime achievement - a successful centre-right, unionist party in Scotland - is to split.
Her fellow Scottish Conservatives go with her, forming the Union Party.
From here there are two choices:
a) Union Party welcomes members (and defectors) south of the border. Tricky given the CUK precedent but not impossible.
b) A UK alliance - more or less formal - with the Lib Dems. Not implausible and would make Swinson’s seat safer.
Unfortunately all her tin men have already been brown nosing and prostrating themselves to Boris. Hopefully Jelly Boy Mundell gets his marching orders, a more odious individual would be hard to find. Think tank for Davidson.
I should know this but is there a minimum period between a GE being called and polling day?
The reason I ask is that we are abroad for about 6 weeks in September/October and I have just discovered that I cannot appoint a proxy without knowing the date of the election I want it for.
The problem is I could well be abroad by the time I know a date and talking to the Electoral Registration office trying to do it whilst abroad sounds a bit hit and miss to say the least. It's a bit of a Catch-22. Anybody got any suggestions?
So you might end of being disenfrainshed for an election - just deal with - do you know the odds on your one vote actually making a difference?
I asked if anyone knew the minimum timetable for a GE not whether you are bothered whether I lose my vote or not.
Well, As you are confident in someone sufficiently to appoint them as your proxy you DO NOT have a problem in the real world. Fill out the form and sign it without the date and they can fill in the date etc and hand it in. If you can't trust them to do that then they are not appropriate to be a proxy.
BUT, I'm pretty sure you can apply for a permanent proxy at any time. But go to your local registration authority unitary / district. They are always much more helpful.
Cheers, I've been told I do not have a valid reason to appoint a permanent proxy. As others have suggested I will leave the forms pre-signed for someone else to complete if an election is called.
On topic, this must have been very painful for Richard.
Indeed so. I can empathise with him from how I felt at the beginning of 1997 when I declined to renew my Labour Party membership after 27 years. It caused me a bit of an emotional breakdown - and to this day , it is one reason I despise Blair so intensely. I hope Richard finds it easier than I did.
I'll be honest, maybe I'm stupid (I am pretty stupid) but I don't get why, for a lifelong stalwart Tory member, Boris becoming leader is any more depressing than May becoming leader?
I thought May was massively unsuited to leadership. Not unsuited to a cabinet role, but very much unsuited to leading a political party in modern times.
My instinct is that Boris will be much better at it. A better delegator, communicator and listener.
The circumstances in which both of them have had to operate as PM are obviously very tough, but May was a disastrous pick from the start for me. I just couldn't get my head round it.
Boris drives some people absolutety crackers...
It is rather strange. Thatcher was a cold fish so easy to cast as a hate figure but Boris is funny, genial and socially liberal yet remainers react as if he is the blond Nick Griffin.
He has decided to cast his lot with people who are not socially liberal, who hate foreigners and immigrants and who are perfectly happy to damage the economy, peace in Northern Ireland and the lives of others in pursuit of their monomaniacal obsession.
And he has decided to do so not out of principle but purely to satisfy his own personal ambition.
That’s why he is disliked and why his record as London Mayor will not help him. He’s turned his back on the reasons why he people voted for him as Mayor and has turned his back on those voters. He won’t be getting them back any time soon, if ever.
His decision to throw his lot in with the fruitcakes, loonies and racists is a giant F U to those voters and we are going to give him a giant F U back.
I should know this but is there a minimum period between a GE being called and polling day?
The reason I ask is that we are abroad for about 6 weeks in September/October and I have just discovered that I cannot appoint a proxy without knowing the date of the election I want it for.
The problem is I could well be abroad by the time I know a date and talking to the Electoral Registration office trying to do it whilst abroad sounds a bit hit and miss to say the least. It's a bit of a Catch-22. Anybody got any suggestions?
So you might end of being disenfrainshed for an election - just deal with - do you know the odds on your one vote actually making a difference?
I asked if anyone knew the minimum timetable for a GE not whether you are bothered whether I lose my vote or not.
Well, As you are confident in someone sufficiently to appoint them as your proxy you DO NOT have a problem in the real world. Fill out the form and sign it without the date and they can fill in the date etc and hand it in. If you can't trust them to do that then they are not appropriate to be a proxy.
BUT, I'm pretty sure you can apply for a permanent proxy at any time. But go to your local registration authority unitary / district. They are always much more helpful.
Cheers, I've been told I do not have a valid reason to appoint a permanent proxy. As others have suggested I will leave the forms pre-signed for someone else to complete if an election is called.
I do wonder whether we will soon see an attempt to found a successor party. There are some obvious problems:
- CHUK already tried and failed - They might be blamed for bringing down the government/letting in Corbyn - In the present situation, it's not necessary for the immediate goal of influencing the government, since a caucus can be formed within the Parliamentary conservative party.
However for the longer term, it's not obvious that the sane faction can do much within the existing party other than fight a losing battle, as they will be under threat from deselection. To provide a sane version of the conservatives, it may be necessary to 'dismiss the membership and elect another', IE, form a new party.
Some advantages: - Business, rather than the membership, has always been the major support of the party anyway. Businesses may be receptive to an alternative to Boris 'F*ck Business' Johnson. - 96,000 members may not me that hard to replace, given enough funding. - It should be fairly easy not to make the same mistakes as CHUK. Some obvious names, for example: 'Serious Conservatives' , 'Sensible Conservatives', or even 'Sane Conservatives' (Not sure what the Electoral Commission rules are exactly, but they don't seem to completely object to other parties with 'Conservative' or 'Labour' in the name). - Boris will need a coalition with someone, and may actually not mind giving up the 31st Oct date as long as someone else forces him to do so.
One thing the CHUKkers proves though, is that a few defectors is not enough. It has to be a mass exodus or nothing. How many MPs are up for it?
There is a reasonably plausible route to this happening.
Ruth Davidson stares into the electoral abyss of a Boris-led Conservative party in Scotland, and realises the only way to salvage her lifetime achievement - a successful centre-right, unionist party in Scotland - is to split.
Her fellow Scottish Conservatives go with her, forming the Union Party.
From here there are two choices:
a) Union Party welcomes members (and defectors) south of the border. Tricky given the CUK precedent but not impossible.
b) A UK alliance - more or less formal - with the Lib Dems. Not implausible and would make Swinson’s seat safer.
Trouble is that the Scottish Tory MPs include such as Ross Thomson or Colin Clark who are very pro Johnson, so any such move will lead to a horrific split in the SC&UP... Ruth is in a serious bind.
That is the worst Cabinet appointment in my lifetime. For a start she was sacked for lying to a PM about running a secret negotiation with a foreign power.
I am struggling to see how he fills the payroll vote. If his mates get all the cabinet positions, how many are willing to accept demotions for what could a be govt of a couple of months. Maybe we dont need 150+ govt MPs, guessing a mix of doubling up roles and a few Lords will be needed.
og
I see what you mean, he really is cutting this fine. Once you've fired the Remainers, the May-dealers, the Hunt supporters, the pool that is left is pretty small and not exactly impressive. This is going to be a very fragile government. Suppose some of these late "big beasts" decide to go into the private sector? BoJo then faces some horrible by elections and gradually loses control over events.
Slimming down the payroll vote is no bad thing. Do we need so many departments and associated ministers?
It helps you win votes and keep discipline. Important when you have a majority of 1 and want to radically change the country (not very conservative but there you go).
I should know this but is there a minimum period between a GE being called and polling day?
The reason I ask is that we are abroad for about 6 weeks in September/October and I have just discovered that I cannot appoint a proxy without knowing the date of the election I want it for.
The problem is I could well be abroad by the time I know a date and talking to the Electoral Registration office trying to do it whilst abroad sounds a bit hit and miss to say the least. It's a bit of a Catch-22. Anybody got any suggestions?
So you might end of being disenfrainshed for an election - just deal with - do you know the odds on your one vote actually making a difference?
I asked if anyone knew the minimum timetable for a GE not whether you are bothered whether I lose my vote or not.
Complete the form, take it to a post office or the local equivalent of Mailboxes etc abroad and send it by a courier-style method to your Electoral Services dept in the UK.
There's nothing remotely hit and miss about this. Returning Officers live in the 21st century and are, in my experience, highly efficient at getting you your vite.
Thanks for the advice. I have applied for postal votes three times in the past few years because I was going to be away but none arrived before we left - the second wave of postal votes (ie those applied for after an election has been called) go out very late in the day and I am told that a good percentage do not arrive in time.
What surprised me when I talked to the ER office is that you cannot appoint a proxy until you know the date of the election and that is a problem if you spend long periods abroad. Yes you can try to sort it out while you are abroad if an election is called but it seems unnecessarily cumbersome.
And I am right that a permanent proxy can only be for a specific set of listed reasons.
Whether or not you like them as people or approve of their politics, there is something worth noting about having two of the three big cabinet jobs taken by people of colour.
Of course promotions to these jobs should be on merit - but it is still a significant step in terms of representation
Whether or not you like them as people or approve of their politics, there is something worth noting about having two of the three big cabinet jobs taken by people of colour.
Of course promotions to these jobs should be on merit - but it is still a significant step in terms of representation
I don't care if Patel was purple with orange spots, she is utterly unsuited to high office.
Perhaps someone should tell him about the parliamentary arithmetic.
You know, the bit of politics were you have to be able to count rather than write.
This screams "early election".
Yup. Shoring up his base. You cannot win in UK with a fluke Electoral College result. Surely there will be an "alliance" with BXP. Farage possibly going to the US as ambassador.
They don't have enough to cover a small amount of the briefs never mind a shuffle, its at least 4 jobs each and that is including the cleaners, their dogs , etc
I wonder how much of all this clear-out is Cummings, and how much Johnson. The answer would be useful in revealing just how vengeful Johnson is, or isn't.
I do wonder whether we will soon see an attempt to found a successor party. There are some obvious problems:
- CHUK already tried and failed - They might be blamed for bringing down the government/letting in Corbyn - In the present situation, it's not necessary for the immediate goal of influencing the government, since a caucus can be formed within the Parliamentary conservative party.
However for the longer term, it's not obvious that the sane faction can do much within the existing party other than fight a losing battle, as they will be under threat from deselection. To provide a sane version of the conservatives, it may be necessary to 'dismiss the membership and elect another', IE, form a new party.
Some advantages: - Business, rather than the membership, has always been the major support of the party anyway. Businesses may be receptive to an alternative to Boris 'F*ck Business' Johnson. - 96,000 members may not me that hard to replace, given enough funding. - It should be fairly easy not to make the same mistakes as CHUK. Some obvious names, for example: 'Serious Conservatives' , 'Sensible Conservatives', or even 'Sane Conservatives' (Not sure what the Electoral Commission rules are exactly, but they don't seem to completely object to other parties with 'Conservative' or 'Labour' in the name). - Boris will need a coalition with someone, and may actually not mind giving up the 31st Oct date as long as someone else forces him to do so.
One thing the CHUKkers proves though, is that a few defectors is not enough. It has to be a mass exodus or nothing. How many MPs are up for it?
There is a reasonably plausible route to this happening.
Ruth Davidson stares into the electoral abyss of a Boris-led Conservative party in Scotland, and realises the only way to salvage her lifetime achievement - a successful centre-right, unionist party in Scotland - is to split.
Her fellow Scottish Conservatives go with her, forming the Union Party.
From here there are two choices:
a) Union Party welcomes members (and defectors) south of the border. Tricky given the CUK precedent but not impossible.
b) A UK alliance - more or less formal - with the Lib Dems. Not implausible and would make Swinson’s seat safer.
Trouble is that the Scottish Tory MPs include such as Ross Thomson or Colin Clark who are very pro Johnson, so any such move will lead to a horrific split in the SC&UP... Ruth is in a serious bind.
Well deserved, a battle of the chumps
Ah! Our resident ray of Scottish sunshine, how we missed you so...
Perhaps someone should tell him about the parliamentary arithmetic.
You know, the bit of politics were you have to be able to count rather than write.
This screams "early election".
Yup. Shoring up his base. You cannot win in UK with a fluke Electoral College result. Surely there will be an "alliance" with BXP. Farage possibly going to the US as ambassador.
Looks to me as if the gamble is to make the BXP redundant, send Farage to Washington as ambassador, and hope he doesn’t lose too many sensible conservatives from the other end.
Alternatively, he doesn’t want a no deal Brexit and needs to make absolutely sure there are enough unhappy Tories to force him into an extension against his will.
I wonder how much of all this clear-out is Cummings, and how much Johnson. The answer would be useful in revealing just how vengeful Johnson really is, or isn't.
STimes had a detailed write up of the Cabinet job deliberations going on within Boris's team. Cummings was not mentioned.
I wonder how much of all this clear-out is Cummings, and how much Johnson. The answer would be useful in revealing just how vengeful Johnson really is, or isn't.
STimes had a detailed write up of the Cabinet job deliberations going on within Boris's team. Cummings was not mentioned.
Hmm.
Johnson did have a reputation as somewhat vengeful from earlier on, it has to be said.
Well now isn't this pants-shittingly funny? Just as you thought that Shagger as PM wasn't absurd enough, he stands outside Number 10 pledging to unite the country then sets to work eviscerating those who supported his opponent.
Its not a new cabinet. Its a "lets pretend Redwood beet Major in 1995 and had to appoint his batshit crazy supporters to cabinet" reenactment society.
I'm very sorry indeed that we have lost Richard from the party. We need to remain a broad church and losing such thoughtful voices is not a good sign.
But the "world as it is" consists of a Parliament that has proven unwilling to ratify Brexit, despite (in my judgement) there being a latent majority for the much-maligned Withdrawal Agreement. There is plenty of blame to go around for that: Mrs May; the ERG; the Tory Remain wing; and plenty of Opposition MPs too. It is not surprising that this failure has provoked a reaction from both Tory MPs (whose support for Mr Johnson surprised me) and of course the membership.
If you believe that Brexit must happen, but that the current Parliament will not allow it (including by preventing No Deal, which I believe is properly within its authority), then an imminent General Election surely beckons, as per @Cyclefree's thread earlier.
As a Conservative, to believe that Jeremy Hunt would have had a better chance in such an election than Boris Johnson would seem to be engaging in exactly the sort of denial Richard accuses the rest of our members of. Like it or not, until Brexit is delivered we won't be winning back votes from those who would much rather it didn't happen. Elections are usually won on the centre ground, but, for once, the risk is genuinely greater on the flank.
I am sure Boris does not intend to leave with No Deal: as Richard suggests, "it won't be easy" is a significant understatement. Quite how Boris will finesse the election and the October 31st deadline remains to be seen: it's going to be an extraordinary three moths.
The fact that Richard has had to make this undoubtedly hard decision says so much. I can only hope the Conservative Party finds itself in a position where a decent undoubted Conservative can happily rejoin.
Comments
Think tank for Davidson.
Cheers, I've been told I do not have a valid reason to appoint a permanent proxy. As others have suggested I will leave the forms pre-signed for someone else to complete if an election is called.
And he has decided to do so not out of principle but purely to satisfy his own personal ambition.
That’s why he is disliked and why his record as London Mayor will not help him. He’s turned his back on the reasons why he people voted for him as Mayor and has turned his back on those voters. He won’t be getting them back any time soon, if ever.
His decision to throw his lot in with the fruitcakes, loonies and racists is a giant F U to those voters and we are going to give him a giant F U back.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1154072791286726656
Perhaps someone should tell him about the parliamentary arithmetic.
You know, the bit of politics were you have to be able to count rather than write.
That is the worst Cabinet appointment in my lifetime. For a start she was sacked for lying to a PM about running a secret negotiation with a foreign power.
First sign of bitterness publicly.
Of course promotions to these jobs should be on merit - but it is still a significant step in terms of representation
I have lost count now
Slightly on topic, the floppy haired Robespierre is sending the Girondins to the tumbrils.
Only a matter of time I'm sure.
I will tell you. Richard Nabavi knew something well beforehand or he is a saint !
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1422810/Portillo-onslaught-rocks-Tories.html
Alternatively, he doesn’t want a no deal Brexit and needs to make absolutely sure there are enough unhappy Tories to force him into an extension against his will.
(just for context)
Johnson did have a reputation as somewhat vengeful from earlier on, it has to be said.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1154074965177753600
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?d1=09&m1=05&y1=2016&d2=24&m2=7&y2=2019
Raab and Patel in top jobs? The worst Cabinet in my lifetime by a country mile.
Fucking dangerous in fact.
Its not a new cabinet. Its a "lets pretend Redwood beet Major in 1995 and had to appoint his batshit crazy supporters to cabinet" reenactment society.
Who would have thunk it ?
But the "world as it is" consists of a Parliament that has proven unwilling to ratify Brexit, despite (in my judgement) there being a latent majority for the much-maligned Withdrawal Agreement. There is plenty of blame to go around for that: Mrs May; the ERG; the Tory Remain wing; and plenty of Opposition MPs too. It is not surprising that this failure has provoked a reaction from both Tory MPs (whose support for Mr Johnson surprised me) and of course the membership.
If you believe that Brexit must happen, but that the current Parliament will not allow it (including by preventing No Deal, which I believe is properly within its authority), then an imminent General Election surely beckons, as per @Cyclefree's thread earlier.
As a Conservative, to believe that Jeremy Hunt would have had a better chance in such an election than Boris Johnson would seem to be engaging in exactly the sort of denial Richard accuses the rest of our members of. Like it or not, until Brexit is delivered we won't be winning back votes from those who would much rather it didn't happen. Elections are usually won on the centre ground, but, for once, the risk is genuinely greater on the flank.
I am sure Boris does not intend to leave with No Deal: as Richard suggests, "it won't be easy" is a significant understatement. Quite how Boris will finesse the election and the October 31st deadline remains to be seen: it's going to be an extraordinary three moths.
Otherwise all this is simply pointless.
Can't see Johnson holding on to all his MPs now, nor a cat's chance of winning votes that matter on Brexit.
He is going to test the constitution by ignoring Parliament and leaving.
The fact that Richard has had to make this undoubtedly hard decision says so much. I can only hope the Conservative Party finds itself in a position where a decent undoubted Conservative can happily rejoin.
I think we have got Richard Nixon late stage Boris. Mad.