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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40%+ chance to a 29% one since MPs returned after the summer recess

Until the afternoon of Tuesday September 3rd everything had been going well for Cummings and Johnson. The proroguement of Parliament cutting down the numbers of days before the October Brexit deadline when Johnson and his team would be subject to parliamentary scrutiny had been drastically slashed and all seemed on target.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • OT already but: Help to Buy has exposed both the government and homebuyers to “significant financial risks”, according to a report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

    The report also found that it “only benefits those in a position to buy their own house in the first place”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/help-buy-could-hit-consumers-government-significant-financial/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited September 2019
    Dominic Cummings has seized new powers to sack ministers’ advisers as No 10 moves to centralise control of the government.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dominic-cummings-cements-his-power-to-sack-advisers-m6q77gkxd (paywall)

    Another one for the list of constitutional, erm, innovations we were supposed to fear happening under a Stalinist Jeremy Corbyn regime.
  • Leader approval ratings (net) among own voters:
    Current VI / 2017 Vote:
    Johnson: +83 / +50
    Corbyn: +53 / -6
    Swinson: +72 / +41

    ABC1/C2DE Total GB
    Johnson: -25 / -4
    Corbyn: -48 / -52
    Swinson -7 / -18 (high DK)

    Remain/Leave Total GB
    Johnson: -75 / + 46
    Corbyn: -24 / -83
    Swinson: +29 / -50 (31%DK)

    Men/Women Total GB
    Johnson: -11 / -19
    Corbyn: -51 / -48
    Swinson: -15 / -8(49% DK among women)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u28pz0ddto/YouGov - Favourability 190917.pdf
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,283
    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    But how many of those 21 lost Tory MPs will remain lost to the party in the subsequent election? Not many.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,466
    edited September 2019
    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,226

    OT already but: Help to Buy has exposed both the government and homebuyers to “significant financial risks”, according to a report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

    The report also found that it “only benefits those in a position to buy their own house in the first place”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/help-buy-could-hit-consumers-government-significant-financial/

    It's a subsidy to people with a home to sell.

    A lack of understanding of basic economics is a major problem with all our politicians.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,466
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:


    A lack of understanding of basic economics is a major problem with all our politicians.

    The politicians understand economics, or if they don't they get advice from people who do.

    The problem is that the voters don't understand it, and the politicians know that the voters don't understand it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    (FPT)
    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew said:



    An escalation of the Saudi versus Iran conflict has the potential to be the stuff of nightmares, because the proxies of both nations are spread throughout the middle east. That's not a conflict that would be easy to stand back from, metaphorically speaking, but yes, western involvement on either side may make things ten times worse.

    Indeed.

    It's something that appears inevitable though. Even before this Iran had already bombed the two alternate routes that bypass their Hormuz chokepoint (the Red Sea pipeline, and Fujairah, where the UAE's bypass pipeline ends). Now they've used cruise missiles on Saudi oil facilities.

    For whatever reason, Iran has basically declared war on two of its neighbours. Either Rouhani has lost the plot, or their military are freelancing - I'm not sure which is more worrying.
    Or, maybe a very well thought out strategy ! What has Iran got to lose now ? It is signaling that if it [ Iran ] cannot sell oil, then no one can .
    Also, it increases the value of whatever oil Iran is able to get out, by restricting world supply.
    Given the very accurate nature of the most recent attack, and that the damage was clearly not intended to be crippling - very small warheads taking out parts of the plant which could be repaired comparatively easily - it seems quite possible that Iran is signalling that they could take our a large proportion of Saudi oil supplies for an extended period in retaliation for any US/ Saudi action.

    Either way, it’s an exceptionally dangerous strategy. Then again the Iranian regime is peopled by more ideologues than strategists.
  • rcs1000 said:

    OT already but: Help to Buy has exposed both the government and homebuyers to “significant financial risks”, according to a report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

    The report also found that it “only benefits those in a position to buy their own house in the first place”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/help-buy-could-hit-consumers-government-significant-financial/

    It's a subsidy to people with a home to sell.

    A lack of understanding of basic economics is a major problem with all our politicians.
    It was always meant to be a subsidy to builders, banks and the over 50s tory voters and a tax on younger workers cynically dressed up as helping the workers. Of course they knew that increasing the amounts people can borrow, by as much as 40% in London, would lead to them paying higher prices. And that higher prices are bad for buy buyers and good for sellers!

    Those criticising Corbyn for planning to "interfere" in the "free" housing market whilst standing by applauding the govt for trying to "help" younger people with help to buy have some cheek or are economically illiterate (or both!). I dont think he is right either, I would be quite happy with all the govt housing props, including most housing benefit (landlord subsidy, their houses would still get rented out to the same number of people, or even better owned by their tenants, if the govt didnt give landlords £22bn a year, not magically disappear from economic use) being cut back to the bone, which would be a major step in moving prices back in line with earnings.
  • Nigelb said:
    I don't get this, it's a close race and IIUC we hardly have the results yet??? Why would he concede???
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266

    Nigelb said:
    I don't get this, it's a close race and IIUC we hardly have the results yet??? Why would he concede???
    “Refuses to concede. Blames media”
    Are we not allowed the occasional flippancy ?

  • Nigelb said:


    “Refuses to concede. Blames media”
    Are we not allowed the occasional flippancy ?

    Ah, I get it, sorry
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    You have to admire the spin The National is putting on this morning's Survation poll:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/17908992.scotland-union-poll-shows-rise-indyref2-support/

    It's got 'outlier' written all over it, but that's not the line they take...
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Aye, hung Parliament territory seems eminently possible.
  • IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    If..

    It’s perfectly possible the Labour vote might spike, as the campaign develops, in spite of Corbyn rather than because of him, if the meme that it’s the only way to stop Johnson getting a majority gets traction.

    I expect voting to be highly tactical.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    This is the point I was making a week or two ago. There are quite a large number of Labour marginals which would go Tory on a swing of less than 4%. A lot of them are in the midlands which is shaping up to be the key battle area once again. In fact it is not even necessary for the Tory vote to stay the same, as long as Labour falls by more which looks highly likely at the moment.

    I think that the markets are currently slightly underestimating the chances of a Tory majority but given the huge range of possible scenarios the government is facing that is perhaps not too surprising. It could still go painfully wrong for Boris.
  • IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    Bolsover has never had a Tory mp since 1950 and labour have never had less than 50%. The last election looks like an outlier in how well the Tory vote did. It seems that too many things have to align perfectly for tories to win next election. They need to stop the brexit party, hope core labour voters switch to Lib Dem’s in labour seats, avoid losing seats where they turned out sitting MPs and try to hold a few seats in Scotland and London.
  • IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    ydoethur said:

    You have to admire the spin The National is putting on this morning's Survation poll:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/17908992.scotland-union-poll-shows-rise-indyref2-support/

    It's got 'outlier' written all over it, but that's not the line they take...

    7,618 subscribers. How on earth do they survive?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    OT already but: Help to Buy has exposed both the government and homebuyers to “significant financial risks”, according to a report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

    The report also found that it “only benefits those in a position to buy their own house in the first place”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/help-buy-could-hit-consumers-government-significant-financial/

    It's a subsidy to people with a home to sell.

    A lack of understanding of basic economics is a major problem with all our politicians.
    I think Osborne at least understood economics pretty well. This policy was designed to offset, to some extent, the effects of the mortgage famine that existed for several years after the GFC whilst banks repaired their balance sheets. It was designed to moderate a fall in demand that otherwise would have occurred and to encourage builders to keep building. It was also designed to protect prices which were key to the value of securities that banks had for a significant part of their lending. A substantial fall of property prices would have been a disaster for banks with weakened balance sheets. To sell it as help for buyers was a bit of a stretch but I think it was a success overall. It was only ever going to work at the margins.

    The question is whether it is worth persisting with as market conditions find a new normal. I would say probably not.
  • IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    Yes, I think at least 5-6 seats in Scotland should be rather sticky for the Tories.
  • IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    I suspect the Tory pitch of “we hate you and despise you, you quisling traitors, now vote for us” is going to have limited purchase with Remain voters.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    Havene seen the latest Scotland in Union tables but checking the one from the one back in November they figure was 59% 'Remain in the UK' as well.

    Also, given their love of quoting subsample breakdowns, they oddly missed 64% of thos remain voters saying they would be more likely to voter 'Leave the UK' if Britain actually Brexited.
  • DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OT already but: Help to Buy has exposed both the government and homebuyers to “significant financial risks”, according to a report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

    The report also found that it “only benefits those in a position to buy their own house in the first place”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/help-buy-could-hit-consumers-government-significant-financial/

    It's a subsidy to people with a home to sell.

    A lack of understanding of basic economics is a major problem with all our politicians.
    I think Osborne at least understood economics pretty well. This policy was designed to offset, to some extent, the effects of the mortgage famine that existed for several years after the GFC whilst banks repaired their balance sheets. It was designed to moderate a fall in demand that otherwise would have occurred and to encourage builders to keep building. It was also designed to protect prices which were key to the value of securities that banks had for a significant part of their lending. A substantial fall of property prices would have been a disaster for banks with weakened balance sheets. To sell it as help for buyers was a bit of a stretch but I think it was a success overall. It was only ever going to work at the margins.

    The question is whether it is worth persisting with as market conditions find a new normal. I would say probably not.
    I don’t think it is.

    Prices have stabilised and are no longer subject to ever accelerating growth.

    Meanwhile, real wages are catching up and there are more mortgage products on the market again for 90% and 95% mortgages.

    The biggest challenge buyers face now is getting a deposit together, so I think Government support should be focussed on that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and Benny Gantz's Kahol Lavan are tied but neither can secure a ruling majority, with 92 percent of the votes in Israel's Tuesday election counted, according to a source in Israel's Central Elections Committee.

    Does Bibi have the חֻצְפָּה to stay on ?
  • On housing, the only long term solution is to build a lot more. Everything else is window-dressing.
  • Labour voters staying home will be a significant problem for them. Of course HYUFD doesn't look in the mirror and recognise that Tory voters staying home will be a significant problem for him...

    I hope very much that parliament keeps the Johnson minority in office and continues to retain power for itself. Nobody wants a winter election - too bloody cold, and the pieces are still being reordered on the shape of the parties board. But if there was the notion that stay home disgusted voters is only a Labour problem is for the birds - the former Tory party has shat its own bed and i expect large swathes of its own voters to be appalled by the fact that it is no longer Conservative or Unionist. The Libdems should expect to win back large swathes of southern England as a starter for 10
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OT already but: Help to Buy has exposed both the government and homebuyers to “significant financial risks”, according to a report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

    The report also found that it “only benefits those in a position to buy their own house in the first place”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/help-buy-could-hit-consumers-government-significant-financial/

    It's a subsidy to people with a home to sell.

    A lack of understanding of basic economics is a major problem with all our politicians.
    I think Osborne at least understood economics pretty well. This policy was designed to offset, to some extent, the effects of the mortgage famine that existed for several years after the GFC whilst banks repaired their balance sheets. It was designed to moderate a fall in demand that otherwise would have occurred and to encourage builders to keep building. It was also designed to protect prices which were key to the value of securities that banks had for a significant part of their lending. A substantial fall of property prices would have been a disaster for banks with weakened balance sheets. To sell it as help for buyers was a bit of a stretch but I think it was a success overall. It was only ever going to work at the margins.

    The question is whether it is worth persisting with as market conditions find a new normal. I would say probably not.
    I don’t think it is.

    Prices have stabilised and are no longer subject to ever accelerating growth.

    Meanwhile, real wages are catching up and there are more mortgage products on the market again for 90% and 95% mortgages.

    The biggest challenge buyers face now is getting a deposit together, so I think Government support should be focussed on that.
    I think we are in agreement but in fact one of the consequences of the GFC was that banks required much higher deposits which discouraged people from buying their first homes and turning into Conservative voters like their parents did before them. Help to buy was designed to address these higher deposits. It certainly helped my daughter buy her first flat. As you say as the level of deposit required falls so does the need for the scheme.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beiteinu party is projected nine seats, is expected to be the election's kingmaker. On Wednesday morning, he reiterated his support for a "broad liberal unity government," which would include Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud and Kahol Lavan.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Because Tory success was based on differential turnout. In 2016 Holyrood turnout was up 5% but the SNP absolute numbers were static, the Tories captured the gains. In 2017 the Tories captured masses of tactical votes as safr smiley Ruth Davidson said the right message for each region.

    Now, with every party (barring some mixed messages from Labour) saying they would totally refuse to even allow a referendum if the SNP took every seat in Scotland and Berwick it is safe to vote for anyone who is not SNP. Why are the Tens of a thousands of Lib Dem voters in the NE going to keep lending their vote to a Boris lead hard Brexit Tory party?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    Yes, I think at least 5-6 seats in Scotland should be rather sticky for the Tories.
    3 seats are sticky, no more than that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,176

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    Fairly obviously Remain voters worried about Corbynism, whether in the SE or in Scotland, do not need to vote Labour. They can vote LibDem quite safely. The same goes for Scots worried about a further Sindyref.

    Indeed across most of Shire England the LDs are the obvious challengers to the Tories and the best positioned to depose Cummings and his gimp.
  • Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Because Tory success was based on differential turnout. In 2016 Holyrood turnout was up 5% but the SNP absolute numbers were static, the Tories captured the gains. In 2017 the Tories captured masses of tactical votes as safr smiley Ruth Davidson said the right message for each region.

    Now, with every party (barring some mixed messages from Labour) saying they would totally refuse to even allow a referendum if the SNP took every seat in Scotland and Berwick it is safe to vote for anyone who is not SNP. Why are the Tens of a thousands of Lib Dem voters in the NE going to keep lending their vote to a Boris lead hard Brexit Tory party?
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,176
    Good thread from the Telegraph Europe editor on "alternative arrangements" for borders, focussing on the Irish one:

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    Yes, I think at least 5-6 seats in Scotland should be rather sticky for the Tories.
    3 seats are sticky, no more than that.
    I am troubled by the implications of the dissolution of the Ruth Davidson party. She reached many parts that the replacement Conservative and Unionist party will never get near.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,176

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see w

    Because Tory success was based on differential turnout. In 2016 Holyrood turnout was up 5% but the SNP absolute numbers were static, the Tories captured the gains. In 2017 the Tories captured masses of tactical votes as safr smiley Ruth Davidson said the right message for each region.

    Now, with every party (barring some mixed messages from Labour) saying they would totally refuse to even allow a referendum if the SNP took every seat in Scotland and Berwick it is safe to vote for anyone who is not SNP. Why are the Tens of a thousands of Lib Dem voters in the NE going to keep lending their vote to a Boris lead hard Brexit Tory party?
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    What percentage of Scottish Con voters voted Leave? I thought that the Ruth Davidson party was quite pro Remain? And even the Leavers were for a very soft Brexit, not least because of the threat to the Union from Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Because Tory success was based on differential turnout. In 2016 Holyrood turnout was up 5% but the SNP absolute numbers were static, the Tories captured the gains. In 2017 the Tories captured masses of tactical votes as safr smiley Ruth Davidson said the right message for each region.

    Now, with every party (barring some mixed messages from Labour) saying they would totally refuse to even allow a referendum if the SNP took every seat in Scotland and Berwick it is safe to vote for anyone who is not SNP. Why are the Tens of a thousands of Lib Dem voters in the NE going to keep lending their vote to a Boris lead hard Brexit Tory party?
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    Swinson losing her seat would be an amusing side-effect of her new Kill Brexit Without A Referendum policy.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OT already but: Help to Buy has exposed both the government and homebuyers to “significant financial risks”, according to a report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

    The report also found that it “only benefits those in a position to buy their own house in the first place”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/help-buy-could-hit-consumers-government-significant-financial/

    It's a subsidy to people with a home to sell.

    A lack of understanding of basic economics is a major problem with all our politicians.
    I think Osborne at least understood economics pretty well. This policy was designed to offset, to some extent, the effects of the mortgage famine that existed for several years after the GFC whilst banks repaired their balance sheets. It was designed to moderate a fall in demand that otherwise would have occurred and to encourage builders to keep building. It was also designed to protect prices which were key to the value of securities that banks had for a significant part of their lending. A substantial fall of property prices would have been a disaster for banks with weakened balance sheets. To sell it as help for buyers was a bit of a stretch but I think it was a success overall. It was only ever going to work at the margins.

    The question is whether it is worth persisting with as market conditions find a new normal. I would say probably not.
    I don’t think it is.

    Prices have stabilised and are no longer subject to ever accelerating growth.

    Meanwhile, real wages are catching up and there are more mortgage products on the market again for 90% and 95% mortgages.

    The biggest challenge buyers face now is getting a deposit together, so I think Government support should be focussed on that.
    I think we are in agreement but in fact one of the consequences of the GFC was that banks required much higher deposits which discouraged people from buying their first homes and turning into Conservative voters like their parents did before them. Help to buy was designed to address these higher deposits. It certainly helped my daughter buy her first flat. As you say as the level of deposit required falls so does the need for the scheme.
    Not everyone can draw on the bank of mum and dad.

    That seems the inequity here.

    The Government could help provide that role, or it could do something creative: like allowing you to leverage extra student loan debt up until the age of 35, or something similar, but at a very low interest rate.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513



    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.

    Yes, Jo Swindon is at Risk but not much. In 2015 I picked her on here as one of the ones to beat the SNP tsunami and she almost did. On the back of strong tactical voting. Her hope is that, a) Dunbartonshire East Tories are not NE costal tories and are much more sanguine about not Brexitin
    b) there's Labour votes to squeeze who are rabidly anti-SNP.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see w

    Because Tory success was based on differential turnout. In 2016 Holyrood turnout was up 5% but the SNP absolute numbers were static, the Tories captured the gains. In 2017 the Tories captured masses of tactical votes as safr smiley Ruth Davidson said the right message for each region.

    Now, with every party (barring some mixed messages from Labour) saying they would totally refuse to even allow a referendum if the SNP took every seat in Scotland and Berwick it is safe to vote for anyone who is not SNP. Why are the Tens of a thousands of Lib Dem voters in the NE going to keep lending their vote to a Boris lead hard Brexit Tory party?
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    What percentage of Scottish Con voters voted Leave? I thought that the Ruth Davidson party was quite pro Remain? And even the Leavers were for a very soft Brexit, not least because of the threat to the Union from Brexit.
    1m people in Scotland voted leave and it is reasonable to assume that a significant chunk of these were Tory voters. But Ruth's positioning was such that remainers were reasonably comfortable too. As Boris has adopted a more extreme Brexit strategy that is no longer the case and Ruth has stepped down. Independence trumps Brexit in Scotland but there are alternative unionist parties available and the risk is the unionist vote fragments inefficiently as happened in 2015.
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    Fairly obviously Remain voters worried about Corbynism, whether in the SE or in Scotland, do not need to vote Labour. They can vote LibDem quite safely. The same goes for Scots worried about a further Sindyref.

    Indeed across most of Shire England the LDs are the obvious challengers to the Tories and the best positioned to depose Cummings and his gimp.
    The polls suggest that most voters prefer a hard brexit over Corbyn as PM in a binary choice. Chances are the gap is wider in wealthier, Tory shire areas. Unlike 2017, no one is going into this election thinking Corbyn has no chance of being elected and, while Swinson may claim she won't deal with Corbyn, I wonder how many people trust the LDs on that pledge, especially as it would be easy to point to tuition fees as a prime example of how the LDs went back on their word to gave a share of power. For many people, if they are wealthy, not voting Tory is not worth the risk.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,176

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that

    Because Tory success was based on differential turnout. In 2016 Holyrood turnout was up 5% but the SNP absolute numbers were static, the Tories captured the gains. In 2017 the Tories captured masses of tactical votes as safr smiley Ruth Davidson said the right message for each region.

    Now, with every party (barring some mixed messages from Labour) saying they would totally refuse to even allow a referendum if the SNP took every seat in Scotland and Berwick it is safe to vote for anyone who is not SNP. Why are the Tens of a thousands of Lib Dem voters in the NE going to keep lending their vote to a Boris lead hard Brexit Tory party?
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    Swinson losing her seat would be an amusing side-effect of her new Kill Brexit Without A Referendum policy.
    I think Swinsons majority will go up.

    Having a Scottish leader helps a party quite significantly above the border, and despite all the talk of decapitation of Johnson, voters like having party leaders as MPs. It is a bit of reflected glory.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    Foxy said:

    What percentage of Scottish Con voters voted Leave? I thought that the Ruth Davidson party was quite pro Remain? And even the Leavers were for a very soft Brexit, not least because of the threat to the Union from Brexit.

    Except for viewers in the NE. Con voters in the NE fishing belt are as hard as they come. Ruth got them voting for her en masses but also had a softer face for the NE Lib Dems.


    It was the combination of Hard Brexit fishermen and Lib Dem voters that swept the NE, that alliance is going to unwind.
  • IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    I suspect the Tory pitch of “we hate you and despise you, you quisling traitors, now vote for us” is going to have limited purchase with Remain voters.
    I think it depends on how strongly they are motivated by Remain (and Leave). Personally, the ones who are strongly pro-Remain will never vote Tory. However, the ones who voted Remain and whom I would categorise as less motivated by it are happy to vote Conservative to keep Corbyn out.
  • IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    I suspect the Tory pitch of “we hate you and despise you, you quisling traitors, now vote for us” is going to have limited purchase with Remain voters.
    I think it depends on how strongly they are motivated by Remain (and Leave). Personally, the ones who are strongly pro-Remain will never vote Tory. However, the ones who voted Remain and whom I would categorise as less motivated by it are happy to vote Conservative to keep Corbyn out.
    Sorry that should have read of the people I know (N London)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,429
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that

    Because Tory success was based on differential turnout. In 2016 Holyrood turnout was up 5% but the SNP absolute numbers were static, the Tories captured the gains. In 2017 the Tories captured masses of tactical votes as safr smiley Ruth Davidson said the right message for each region.

    Now, with every party (barring some mixed messages from Labour) saying they would totally refuse to even allow a referendum if the SNP took every seat in Scotland and Berwick it is safe to vote for anyone who is not SNP. Why are the Tens of a thousands of Lib Dem voters in the NE going to keep lending their vote to a Boris lead hard Brexit Tory party?
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    Swinson losing her seat would be an amusing side-effect of her new Kill Brexit Without A Referendum policy.
    I think Swinson's majority will go up.

    .
    I agree. Whatever Malcolm thunders to the contrary.
  • Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    Yes, I think at least 5-6 seats in Scotland should be rather sticky for the Tories.
    3 seats are sticky, no more than that.

    WA&K, Banff & Buchan, Moray, D,C&T and B,R&S are the ones I’d be banking on.
  • I

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    I suspect the Tory pitch of “we hate you and despise you, you quisling traitors, now vote for us” is going to have limited purchase with Remain voters.
    I think it depends on how strongly they are motivated by Remain (and Leave). Personally, the ones who are strongly pro-Remain will never vote Tory. However, the ones who voted Remain and whom I would categorise as less motivated by it are happy to vote Conservative to keep Corbyn out.
    I don’t think you realise just how mad the Conservatives look right now.
  • Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Because Tory success was based on differential turnout. In 2016 Holyrood turnout was up 5% but the SNP absolute numbers were static, the Tories captured the gains. In 2017 the Tories captured masses of tactical votes as safr smiley Ruth Davidson said the right message for each region.

    Now, with every party (barring some mixed messages from Labour) saying they would totally refuse to even allow a referendum if the SNP took every seat in Scotland and Berwick it is safe to vote for anyone who is not SNP. Why are the Tens of a thousands of Lib Dem voters in the NE going to keep lending their vote to a Boris lead hard Brexit Tory party?
    There were direct SNP to Tory swings in several seats.

    Not all Tartan Tories favour independence, particularly in the NE.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,176

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    Fairly obviously Remain voters worried about Corbynism, whether in the SE or in Scotland, do not need to vote Labour. They can vote LibDem quite safely. The same goes for Scots worried about a further Sindyref.

    Indeed across most of Shire England the LDs are the obvious challengers to the Tories and the best positioned to depose Cummings and his gimp.
    The polls suggest that most voters prefer a hard brexit over Corbyn as PM in a binary choice. Chances are the gap is wider in wealthier, Tory shire areas. Unlike 2017, no one is going into this election thinking Corbyn has no chance of being elected and, while Swinson may claim she won't deal with Corbyn, I wonder how many people trust the LDs on that pledge, especially as it would be easy to point to tuition fees as a prime example of how the LDs went back on their word to gave a share of power. For many people, if they are wealthy, not voting Tory is not worth the risk.
    Nonsense! There is no risk of Corbyn gaining seats across most of suburban and rural England. Voting Lib Dem in places like Winchester, Eastleigh, Guildford is completely safe.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,429

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    .
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.


    B
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    Swinson losing her seat would be an amusing side-effect of her new Kill Brexit Without A Referendum policy.
    Kill Brexit Without a Referendum is a masterstroke.


    There were those on here who chided the LibDems over Bollox to Brexit, but it turned out to be a brilliant PR coup.

    A lot of people would like clarity on Brexit. Referendums aren't particularly democratic because a) they present untested choices which in this case was simplistic, binary and pre-emptive and b) there's little or no recourse so if people change their minds with changing circumstances, they're stuffed.

    I hope it's the last time a referendum is ever held in England and Wales.

    General Elections are the proper form of expressing democracy, however imperfect. It's really very simple. If you don't want to cancel Brexit don't vote LibDem. If they win, you know very clearly what will happen on Day 1.

    Kudos.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Alistair said:



    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.

    Yes, Jo Swindon is at Risk but not much. In 2015 I picked her on here as one of the ones to beat the SNP tsunami and she almost did. On the back of strong tactical voting. Her hope is that, a) Dunbartonshire East Tories are not NE costal tories and are much more sanguine about not Brexitin
    b) there's Labour votes to squeeze who are rabidly anti-SNP.
    In the 2015 GE, it was the seat with the highest turnout, at 81.9%. That is a very engaged electorate! It dropped to 78.8% in 2017, but the Green and UKIP candidates in 2015 accounted for 2.5% and they didn't stand last time. A Brexit Party candidate this time could be fun....back into the 80s!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    edited September 2019

    On housing, the only long term solution is to build a lot more. Everything else is window-dressing.

    That has been patently obvious for years, and I simply do not understand how, in a period of sustained exceptionally low borrowing costs, government has not seen state intervention as an appealing policy.
    They could at the same time have given a lead on energy efficient housing.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    edited September 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beiteinu party is projected nine seats, is expected to be the election's kingmaker. On Wednesday morning, he reiterated his support for a "broad liberal unity government," which would include Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud and Kahol Lavan.

    Lol That's the main opposition party !

    OK Bibi will have to step down.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,429

    I

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    y.
    I suspect the Tory pitch of “we hate you and despise you, you quisling traitors, now vote for us” is going to have limited purchase with Remain voters.
    I think it depends on how strongly they are motivated by Remain (and Leave). Personally, the ones who are strongly pro-Remain will never vote Tory. However, the ones who voted Remain and whom I would categorise as less motivated by it are happy to vote Conservative to keep Corbyn out.
    I don’t think you realise just how mad the Conservatives look right now.
    There's just one last thing that needs to happen to prove to any lingering sceptics that they have gone totally tonto.

    Boris Johnson needs to stick a pair of underpants on top of his mop, ram a couple of pencils up his nostrils and shout 'wibble.'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    Most of the North Yorkshire seats are rock solid Tory, but might this tip the balance against them in Scarborough and Whitby ?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/17/sirius-minerals-warns-cant-raise-funding-giant-yorkshire-fertiliser/
  • Has there been any polling on how much a voter's referendum preference is likely to cause them to vote for a party that they have not voted for in the past? In other words, how important is Brexit to them in the way they will vote in future? There may be some, like me, who are very heavily influenced, others ( I suspect Labour leave voters) who will not change their traditional pattern). I think there will be some demographics that will be more and some less affected.
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirelyund.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    Fairly obviously Remain voters worried about Corbynism, whether in the SE or in Scotland, do not need to vote Labour. They can vote LibDem quite safely. The same goes for Scots worried about a further Sindyref.

    Indeed across most of Shire England the LDs are the obvious challengers to the Tories and the best positioned to depose Cummings and his gimp.
    The polls suggest that most voters prefer a hard brexit over Corbyn as PM in a binary choice. Chances are the gap is wider in wealthier, Tory shire areas. Unlike 2017, no one is going into this election thinking Corbyn has no chance of being elected and, while Swinson may claim she won't deal with Corbyn, I wonder how many people trust the LDs on that pledge, especially as it would be easy to point to tuition fees as a prime example of how the LDs went back on their word to gave a share of power. For many people, if they are wealthy, not voting Tory is not worth the risk.

    Corbyn has as much chance of being elected as he did in 2017.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,176

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong b

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    I suspect the Tory pitch of “we hate you and despise you, you quisling traitors, now vote for us” is going to have limited purchase with Remain voters.
    I think it depends on how strongly they are motivated by Remain (and Leave). Personally, the ones who are strongly pro-Remain will never vote Tory. However, the ones who voted Remain and whom I would categorise as less motivated by it are happy to vote Conservative to keep Corbyn out.
    Sorry that should have read of the people I know (N London)
    I concede that in Tory London seats that you may have a case, but outside the Smoke the dynamics are very different.

    Locally to me, Loughborough looks a straight Lab Con fight. I think Nicky Morgan will scrape home again as she is a good constituency MP. The 3 Leicester seats are safe Lab, the remainder of the county safe Tory, though Hinckley and Bosworth, and Harborough are both possible as LD stretch targets.
  • Alistair said:



    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.

    Yes, Jo Swindon is at Risk but not much. In 2015 I picked her on here as one of the ones to beat the SNP tsunami and she almost did. On the back of strong tactical voting. Her hope is that, a) Dunbartonshire East Tories are not NE costal tories and are much more sanguine about not Brexitin
    b) there's Labour votes to squeeze who are rabidly anti-SNP.
    I think Ms Swinson is looking pretty impressive. Mrs Foremain is a lifelong Tory, with professional training and rather likes her. She certainly looks a contrast with the other two party leaders in a very positive way. Consequently I would think her local support should increase.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,993

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    .
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.


    B
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    Swinson losing her seat would be an amusing side-effect of her new Kill Brexit Without A Referendum policy.
    Kill Brexit Without a Referendum is a masterstroke.


    There were those on here who chided the LibDems over Bollox to Brexit, but it turned out to be a brilliant PR coup.

    A lot of people would like clarity on Brexit. Referendums aren't particularly democratic because a) they present untested choices which in this case was simplistic, binary and pre-emptive and b) there's little or no recourse so if people change their minds with changing circumstances, they're stuffed.

    I hope it's the last time a referendum is ever held in England and Wales.

    General Elections are the proper form of expressing democracy, however imperfect. It's really very simple. If you don't want to cancel Brexit don't vote LibDem. If they win, you know very clearly what will happen on Day 1.

    Kudos.
    It's not a masterstroke at all. All it is doing is giving legitimacy to the idea that a minority (say 30% at a GE) can overrule a majority (the 52% of the referendum). Fptp has always been a bit of a "tyranny of the minority" in this way but never on an issue in which there is a clear majority against. The same is true of being dragged out without a deal by a similar minority. The lib Dems have in their "masterstroke" legitimised that possibility.
  • I’m not convinced we’re as close to a deal as the government is briefing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    Yes, I think at least 5-6 seats in Scotland should be rather sticky for the Tories.
    3 seats are sticky, no more than that.

    WA&K, Banff & Buchan, Moray, D,C&T and B,R&S are the ones I’d be banking on.
    DCT and BRS are almost guaranteed holds, however WAK is, assuming current conditions, a gonner. Massive borrowed Lib Dem vote to unwind.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    kyf_100 said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    .
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.


    B
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    Swinson losing her seat would be an amusing side-effect of her new Kill Brexit Without A Referendum policy.
    Kill Brexit Without a Referendum is a masterstroke.


    There were those on here who chided the LibDems over Bollox to Brexit, but it turned out to be a brilliant PR coup.

    A lot of people would like clarity on Brexit. Referendums aren't particularly democratic because a) they present untested choices which in this case was simplistic, binary and pre-emptive and b) there's little or no recourse so if people change their minds with changing circumstances, they're stuffed.

    I hope it's the last time a referendum is ever held in England and Wales.

    General Elections are the proper form of expressing democracy, however imperfect. It's really very simple. If you don't want to cancel Brexit don't vote LibDem. If they win, you know very clearly what will happen on Day 1.

    Kudos.
    It's not a masterstroke at all. All it is doing is giving legitimacy to the idea that a minority (say 30% at a GE) can overrule a majority (the 52% of the referendum). Fptp has always been a bit of a "tyranny of the minority" in this way but never on an issue in which there is a clear majority against....
    You clearly don’t remember the Thatcher governments of the early eighties...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,927

    I’m not convinced we’re as close to a deal as the government is briefing.

    Boris governs through spin and bullshit. A confidence trickster. He is trying to bluff his way into a deal.

    Will events call his bluff?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026



    The polls suggest that most voters prefer a hard brexit over Corbyn as PM in a binary choice. Chances are the gap is wider in wealthier, Tory shire areas. Unlike 2017, no one is going into this election thinking Corbyn has no chance of being elected and, while Swinson may claim she won't deal with Corbyn, I wonder how many people trust the LDs on that pledge, especially as it would be easy to point to tuition fees as a prime example of how the LDs went back on their word to gave a share of power. For many people, if they are wealthy, not voting Tory is not worth the risk.

    So people can either think Swinson actually will do a deal with Corbyn Labour. Or she won't - and condemn the country to god knows how much longer of this chaos in Westminster.

    Stay with the Tories then....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I’m not convinced we’re as close to a deal as the government is briefing.

    I’d expect people to be able to see through the EU’s spin operation by now.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760
    ydoethur said:

    You have to admire the spin The National is putting on this morning's Survation poll:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/17908992.scotland-union-poll-shows-rise-indyref2-support/

    It's got 'outlier' written all over it, but that's not the line they take...

    Looks perfectly reasonable to me. Used to be a hanging offence on here to accuse polling companies of cheating.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157
    I am of the opinion, still, that the number of Labour leave voters voting Cons will be very small.

    I think however that Corbyn reached a ceiling in 2017.

    LDs will take votes off both.

    Another hung parliament beckons.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TOPPING said:

    I am of the opinion, still, that the number of Labour leave voters voting Cons will be very small.

    I think however that Corbyn reached a ceiling in 2017.

    LDs will take votes off both.

    Another hung parliament beckons.

    Who stays at home will be crucial.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Dominic Cummings has seized new powers to sack ministers’ advisers as No 10 moves to centralise control of the government.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dominic-cummings-cements-his-power-to-sack-advisers-m6q77gkxd (paywall)

    Another one for the list of constitutional, erm, innovations we were supposed to fear happening under a Stalinist Jeremy Corbyn regime.

    Be honest, if you were a self respecting Stalinist which of the two main parties would you join?
  • "The polls suggest that most voters prefer a hard brexit over Corbyn as PM in a binary choice. Chances are the gap is wider in wealthier, Tory shire areas. Unlike 2017, no one is going into this election thinking Corbyn has no chance of being elected and, while Swinson may claim she won't deal with Corbyn, I wonder how many people trust the LDs on that pledge, especially as it would be easy to point to tuition fees as a prime example of how the LDs went back on their word to gave a share of power. For many people, if they are wealthy, not voting Tory is not worth the risk"

    Mr Kitchen-Cabinet: I am an ex-Tory activist that is very angry about the direction that the party has taken. I loathe Corbyn, but a Corbyn government can be overturned in fairly short order, and maybe the short term pain needed to get the Conservatives to turn back to being a sensible party of government. Also, the idiocy of no-deal Brexit will damage the economy for decades to come. I will therefore be voting LD. I hope other centrist Tories will do the same.
  • TGOHF said:

    I’m not convinced we’re as close to a deal as the government is briefing.

    I’d expect people to be able to see through the EU’s spin operation by now.

    If they’re spinning, it’s interesting they’re spinning Johnson is totally clueless about how the single market and customs union operate. Is there any evidence that he isn’t?

  • Scott_P said:
    This is what happens when you have a Chief Executive who thinks it unnecessary to have any grasp of detail. He is totally unsuitable for the post.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    A lot of people would like clarity on Brexit. Referendums aren't particularly democratic because a) they present untested choices which in this case was simplistic, binary and pre-emptive and b) there's little or no recourse so if people change their minds with changing circumstances, they're stuffed.

    I hope it's the last time a referendum is ever held in England and Wales.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    I’m not convinced we’re as close to a deal as the government is briefing.

    I’d expect people to be able to see through the EU’s spin operation by now.

    If they’re spinning, it’s interesting they’re spinning Johnson is totally clueless about how the single market and customs union operate. Is there any evidence that he isn’t?

    Am sure he isn’t an expert on every detail - that’s what his team is for.

    But the EU targeted May and now they try and undermine Johnson.

    It’s a clear tactic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,176

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    .
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.


    B
    Because there is no way
    Swinson losing her seat would be an amusing side-effect of her new Kill Brexit Without A Referendum policy.
    Kill Brexit Without a Referendum is a masterstroke.


    There were those on here who chided the LibDems over Bollox to Brexit, but it turned out to be a brilliant PR coup.

    A lot of people would like clarity on Brexit. Referendums aren't particularly democratic because a) they present untested choices which in this case was simplistic, binary and pre-emptive and b) there's little or no recourse so if people change their minds with changing circumstances, they're stuffed.

    I hope it's the last time a referendum is ever held in England and Wales.

    General Elections are the proper form of expressing democracy, however imperfect. It's really very simple. If you don't want to cancel Brexit don't vote LibDem. If they win, you know very clearly what will happen on Day 1.

    Kudos.
    Yes, the Revoke policy is a statement that we are done with referendums* and returning to parliamentary democracy. It is a bold constitutional statement.

    *while I am quite willing to accept a further referendum to confirm or refute Brexit, I think neither Remainers not Leavers relish the long campaign required. Parliamentary Revoke appeals not only to the Die Hard Remainers, but also to the Bored of Brexit voters.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,863

    I

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, sadly HY is right on one respect in that if the Labour vote drops away, the Tories don’t have to gain a single vote extra in order to take a fair few of their seats. The analysts that keep talking in terms of Labour leavers never voting Tory are missing the point.

    What will matter is Labour voters (remainers, as they mostly are) moving to the LibDems in Tory seats whilst remaining loyal in Labour seats.

    Yup, agree. 4% off the Lab score to each of LD, BXP and DNV and Con gain Bolsover, which is Conservative Target #70. This is entirely plausible, IMHO.

    However, this is the kind of performance they'll have to pull off, if they're going to make up for what they lose to LD and SNP, and the failure to take the (fairly small number of) Remainish seats higher up the list.
    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.

    Edmund - I probably am entirely wrong but I struggle to see why in Scotland, given that the dividing line is really on pro/anti-independence than pro/anti-Brexit why the Tories are going to lose so many seats to the SNP. Anyone who is pro-Union will realise a clean sweep for the SNP will mean a further push for indyref2. Far better to hold your nose and vote Conservative this time round.

    Same dynamic to a lesser degree in the wealthier, Remain-leaning tory seats in the SE. Corbyn is coming for your houses and screwing up your kids' private education in which you have invested a ton of money. Hold your noses and vote Tory.
    I suspect the Tory pitch of “we hate you and despise you, you quisling traitors, now vote for us” is going to have limited purchase with Remain voters.
    I think it depends on how strongly they are motivated by Remain (and Leave). Personally, the ones who are strongly pro-Remain will never vote Tory. However, the ones who voted Remain and whom I would categorise as less motivated by it are happy to vote Conservative to keep Corbyn out.
    I don’t think you realise just how mad the Conservatives look right now.
    of course, but the others are not much better, who stands out as reasonable and balanced ?
  • TGOHF said:

    I’m not convinced we’re as close to a deal as the government is briefing.

    I’d expect people to be able to see through the EU’s spin operation by now.

    Keep clutching at those straws and muttering "Project Fear", anything, anything to avoid admitting that 52% of the population were unintentionally misled at best, or treated as gullible morons at worst.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TOPPING said:

    I am of the opinion, still, that the number of Labour leave voters voting Cons will be very small.

    I think however that Corbyn reached a ceiling in 2017.

    LDs will take votes off both.

    Another hung parliament beckons.

    I think you are right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    edited September 2019
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I’m not convinced we’re as close to a deal as the government is briefing.

    I’d expect people to be able to see through the EU’s spin operation by now.

    If they’re spinning, it’s interesting they’re spinning Johnson is totally clueless about how the single market and customs union operate. Is there any evidence that he isn’t?

    Am sure he isn’t an expert on every detail - that’s what his team is for.

    But the EU targeted May and now they try and undermine Johnson.

    It’s a clear tactic.
    Really ?


    :smile:
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,370
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    You have to admire the spin The National is putting on this morning's Survation poll:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/17908992.scotland-union-poll-shows-rise-indyref2-support/

    It's got 'outlier' written all over it, but that's not the line they take...

    Looks perfectly reasonable to me. Used to be a hanging offence on here to accuse polling companies of cheating.
    Outliers are a natural phenomenon not the result of cheating.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,993
    Nigelb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Alistair said:


    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.


    B
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    Swinson losing her seat would be an amusing side-effect of her new Kill Brexit Without A Referendum policy.
    Kill Brexit Without a Referendum is a masterstroke.


    There were those on here who chided the LibDems over Bollox to Brexit, but it turned out to be a brilliant PR coup.

    A lot of people would like clarity on Brexit. Referendums aren't particularly democratic because a) they present untested choices which in this case was simplistic, binary and pre-emptive and b) there's little or no recourse so if people change their minds with changing circumstances, they're stuffed.

    I hope it's the last time a referendum is ever held in England and Wales.

    General Elections are the proper form of expressing democracy, however imperfect. It's really very simple. If you don't want to cancel Brexit don't vote LibDem. If they win, you know very clearly what will happen on Day 1.

    Kudos.
    It's not a masterstroke at all. All it is doing is giving legitimacy to the idea that a minority (say 30% at a GE) can overrule a majority (the 52% of the referendum). Fptp has always been a bit of a "tyranny of the minority" in this way but never on an issue in which there is a clear majority against....
    You clearly don’t remember the Thatcher governments of the early eighties...
    Allowing the Lib Dems to revoke on 30% will create a stab-in-the-back myth that will poison British politics for a generation.

    Thatcher and the Tories were eventually booted out. Do you think the establishment will ever again let us get as close to booting the Eurocrats out as we came in 2016?

    As has already been discussed on here if we revoke, the lib dems next "democratic" move will be to alter the electoral system so nobody will ever get the chance to exercise the same power again.

    The whole thing reeks of a stitch up and will have dire consequences for democracy in the long term.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266

    Dominic Cummings has seized new powers to sack ministers’ advisers as No 10 moves to centralise control of the government.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dominic-cummings-cements-his-power-to-sack-advisers-m6q77gkxd (paywall)

    Another one for the list of constitutional, erm, innovations we were supposed to fear happening under a Stalinist Jeremy Corbyn regime.

    Be honest, if you were a self respecting Stalinist which of the two main parties would you join?
    He's not a member of either.
    Just taking advantage of the one in power.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I’m not convinced we’re as close to a deal as the government is briefing.

    I’d expect people to be able to see through the EU’s spin operation by now.

    If they’re spinning, it’s interesting they’re spinning Johnson is totally clueless about how the single market and customs union operate. Is there any evidence that he isn’t?

    Am sure he isn’t an expert on every detail - that’s what his team is for.

    But the EU targeted May and now they try and undermine Johnson.

    It’s a clear tactic.
    More Leaver xenophobic paranoia
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    You have to admire the spin The National is putting on this morning's Survation poll:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/17908992.scotland-union-poll-shows-rise-indyref2-support/

    It's got 'outlier' written all over it, but that's not the line they take...

    7,618 subscribers. How on earth do they survive?
    makes the Herald and Scotsman look like comics, millionaire unionists keep them going
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Alistair said:


    IanB2 - yes, its Labour leavers staying at home, rather than voting Conservative, that could scupper Labour. There are many more ultra marginals in this election.


    B
    Because there is no way the LDs will win those seats and, if they don't vote for the Conservatives, the SNP will win those seats. However, if you do believe that line of argument, jo Swinson is at significant risk - why would Conservative Leavers lend their vote to elect her given her promises to revoke Article 50.
    Swinson losing her seat would be an amusing side-effect of her new Kill Brexit Without A Referendum policy.
    Kill Brexit Without a Referendum is a masterstroke.


    There were those on here who chided the LibDems over Bollox to Brexit, but it turned out to be a brilliant PR coup.

    A lot of people would like clarity on Brexit. Referendums aren't particularly democratic because a) they present untested choices which in this case was simplistic, binary and pre-emptive and b) there's little or no recourse so if people change their minds with changing circumstances, they're stuffed.

    I hope it's the last time a referendum is ever held in England and Wales.

    General Elections are the proper form of expressing democracy, however imperfect. It's really very simple. If you don't want to cancel Brexit don't vote LibDem. If they win, you know very clearly what will happen on Day 1.

    Kudos.
    It's not a masterstroke at all. All it is doing is giving legitimacy to the idea that a minority (say 30% at a GE) can overrule a majority (the 52% of the referendum). Fptp has always been a bit of a "tyranny of the minority" in this way but never on an issue in which there is a clear majority against....
    You clearly don’t remember the Thatcher governments of the early eighties...
    Allowing the Lib Dems to revoke on 30% will create a stab-in-the-back myth that will poison British politics for a generation.

    Thatcher and the Tories were eventually booted out. Do you think the establishment will ever again let us get as close to booting the Eurocrats out as we came in 2016?

    As has already been discussed on here if we revoke, the lib dems next "democratic" move will be to alter the electoral system so nobody will ever get the chance to exercise the same power again.

    The whole thing reeks of a stitch up and will have dire consequences for democracy in the long term.
    British politics is poisoned for a generation either way.
    The next election will be choose your poison.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    I’m not convinced we’re as close to a deal as the government is briefing.

    I’d expect people to be able to see through the EU’s spin operation by now.

    If they’re spinning, it’s interesting they’re spinning Johnson is totally clueless about how the single market and customs union operate. Is there any evidence that he isn’t?

    Am sure he isn’t an expert on every detail - that’s what his team is for.

    But the EU targeted May and now they try and undermine Johnson.

    It’s a clear tactic.
    More Leaver xenophobic paranoia
    Did you miss the BBC documentary ?

    Prediction - if there is a deal the levels of fury on the remainer side will be 10x that of any Faragists.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,176
    Scott_P said:
    3 days to go for BoZos 30 day challenge.
This discussion has been closed.