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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Devastating defeat for Boris Johnson – and perhaps Brexit

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    CD13 said:

    I still ask why Parliament is sitting. It has no intention of doing anything constructive. Amber Rudd speaks of doing something to break the logjam yet has no clear idea what.

    What bill will be passed? Or even debated? The backbenchers will merely talk and big themselves up and at the same time hide from the electorate. They don't want any sort of Brexit and they fear a general election. They even fear a VONC.

    This is a democracy? Really?

    It's a very good point. Parliament will return tomorrow and do what?
    Unless the Leader of the Opposition is prepared to VoNC and try and take control themselves, there is little point to Parliament sitting anyway.

    The current LotO is not up to the job, by a VERY VERY long way, and so far, excepting some remarks by Ken Clarke, there seems to be no other opposition leader a majority would get behind.

    We need an election, just to sort out Parliament, let alone Brexit (we may need a 2nd Ref for that - we probably need both).
    I suspect not much will happen. Perhaps more tributes to Bercow?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    3 line whip tomorrow

    Expecting shenanigans...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,304
    Roger said:

    If the anti-Brexit campaign is so sure of its ground, why wont it fight an election?

    It will, on terrain of its choosing. Not at the chosen timing of an unelected Prime Minister that has never won a vote.
    As my US producer just said "Who do you have to f*ck to be made Prime Minister of England these days?"
    The future prime minister's wife/husband.
  • Drutt said:

    You can pinpoint the moment when the case was decided. It was when Pannick was submitting in his opening about the PM's motives. Lady Hale stopped him and said 'is this about the motives or the effect' and from then on Pannick was always talking about 'motive or effect' of holding up Parliamentary scrutiny.

    I'm paraphrasing, obviously, bit that was a soft signal from the bench that the ratio would be effect, not motive.

    Pannick's written submissions were a bit light on this, just adding the words "and whatever the motive" in para 23.

    Anyway, what I most want to say today is STOP PUTTING AN 'E' IN THE MIDDLE OF JUDGMENT

    I believe its spelt either way. *ahem* some software I use actually has a checkbox - "How do you want to spell 'Judg(e)ment' and gives you a choice.
  • If the anti-Brexit campaign is so sure of its ground, why wont it fight an election?

    It will, on terrain of its choosing. Not at the chosen timing of an unelected Prime Minister that has never won a vote.
    The Conservatives have been refusing another election ever since the 2017 election, then for a few weeks they have decided it was in their favour to have an election.

    Why should everyone jump when the Conservatives want an election if they don't when the shoe is on the other foot, for a far longer period as well.

    I think we should have one after we get an extension but Conservatives whining about it have very little ground to stand on.
    Don't you mean that cowardly Corbyn, who has been whining about an election for two years, has no leg to stand on in refusing one now?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    RobD said:

    CD13 said:

    I still ask why Parliament is sitting. It has no intention of doing anything constructive. Amber Rudd speaks of doing something to break the logjam yet has no clear idea what.

    What bill will be passed? Or even debated? The backbenchers will merely talk and big themselves up and at the same time hide from the electorate. They don't want any sort of Brexit and they fear a general election. They even fear a VONC.

    This is a democracy? Really?

    It's a very good point. Parliament will return tomorrow and do what?
    Unless the Leader of the Opposition is prepared to VoNC and try and take control themselves, there is little point to Parliament sitting anyway.

    The current LotO is not up to the job, by a VERY VERY long way, and so far, excepting some remarks by Ken Clarke, there seems to be no other opposition leader a majority would get behind.

    We need an election, just to sort out Parliament, let alone Brexit (we may need a 2nd Ref for that - we probably need both).
    I suspect not much will happen. Perhaps more tributes to Bercow?
    I'm hoping they hold some tributes back for the 20 part BBC series on the life and times of JB
  • Interesting slip of the tongue in Rudds interview. Nothing concrete but she sounded like she was about to talk about some or all of the '21' being back under the whip and corrected herself and just said she hoped no 10 would see the sense of consensus and cooperation etc.

    I think it is an open secret that the Chief Whip has told the 21 that if they vote with the Government on the Queen's Speech and explicit confidence votes they'll get the whip back.
  • RobD said:

    CD13 said:

    I still ask why Parliament is sitting. It has no intention of doing anything constructive. Amber Rudd speaks of doing something to break the logjam yet has no clear idea what.

    What bill will be passed? Or even debated? The backbenchers will merely talk and big themselves up and at the same time hide from the electorate. They don't want any sort of Brexit and they fear a general election. They even fear a VONC.

    This is a democracy? Really?

    It's a very good point. Parliament will return tomorrow and do what?
    Unless the Leader of the Opposition is prepared to VoNC and try and take control themselves, there is little point to Parliament sitting anyway.

    The current LotO is not up to the job, by a VERY VERY long way, and so far, excepting some remarks by Ken Clarke, there seems to be no other opposition leader a majority would get behind.

    We need an election, just to sort out Parliament, let alone Brexit (we may need a 2nd Ref for that - we probably need both).
    I suspect not much will happen. Perhaps more tributes to Bercow?
    Trade Bill
    Fisheries Bill
    Animal Cruelty
    Divorce law
    Domestic Abuse

    These bills were in progress before the prorogation. They need to be worked on.
  • Interesting slip of the tongue in Rudds interview. Nothing concrete but she sounded like she was about to talk about some or all of the '21' being back under the whip and corrected herself and just said she hoped no 10 would see the sense of consensus and cooperation etc.

    I think it is an open secret that the Chief Whip has told the 21 that if they vote with the Government on the Queen's Speech and explicit confidence votes they'll get the whip back.
    One hopes they will tell them to stick the whip where the sun don't shine.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,204
    Scott_P said:



    3 line whip tomorrow

    Expecting shenanigans...
    They can hitch a ride on the Thomas Cook relief run
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The judgement specifically makes reference to 4-6 days. That's why I (And Steve Baker) are quoting this as a route for the Gov't to a QS.

    Yes, if Boris has any sense he will tone the rhetotic, instruct the @HYUFDs of this world to cut out the garbage about Quisling Remainiac judges, accept the result of the case with good grace, and re-prorogue parliament legally for a few days over the Tory conference period. He can then have his shiny new session and his flagship Queen's Speech to flesh out his Conference promises.

    If he does this, this whole constitutional crisis and embarrassment will soon be forgotten except by lawyers.
    Is this satire?

    Remainers have defeated Boris and Brexit in the Supreme Court. The war is far from over but this battle shows things are definitely going the Remainers’ way.

    This will be remembered the same way El Alamein was remembered after WW2.
    Oh, I agree it shows things are going their way, thanks to the disastrous missteps of Boris. But the practical effect of this particular case isn't that significant (as @RobD has just pointed out), and the circus will move on. I was describing how Boris can minimise the damage.
    Fair enough. I agree. Indeed I said previously that the practical consequences of this ruling weren’t enormous, at all.

    But politics is more than practicalities. It’s mood and emotion and psychology as well. And this judgment is hugely important for the psychology of Brexit, or not-Brexit (much more likely now)

    eg Remainer MPs (most of them?) can now sense a clear way - indeed several ways - to total victory, and a new referendum, and Remain. This means they will be even less likely to vote for any new deal, in the unlikely event that Boris secures one. Likewise the E.U. can now see a route to reversing Brexit, so they won’t be minded to give Boris a better deal, either.

    The £ should be doing better than it is. Maybe forex dealers haven’t realized how much Remain has just gained in probability.
  • HYFUD is the one with the connections but I’m scratching my head at the idea Boris will resign prior to 31 Oct.

    There’s no guarantee at all this would trigger an election with advantageous timing to him, it could easily lead to a second referendum instead and he would lose the polling benefit of incumbency, potentially giving it to the supposed enemy of the state Corbyn. Far better to comply with the Benn Law if that turns out to be the only alternative.

    Keep calm and carry on. All today does is give the Commons a few more days to grandstand. They already have their No To No Deal law on the books.
  • RobD said:

    CD13 said:

    I still ask why Parliament is sitting. It has no intention of doing anything constructive. Amber Rudd speaks of doing something to break the logjam yet has no clear idea what.

    What bill will be passed? Or even debated? The backbenchers will merely talk and big themselves up and at the same time hide from the electorate. They don't want any sort of Brexit and they fear a general election. They even fear a VONC.

    This is a democracy? Really?

    It's a very good point. Parliament will return tomorrow and do what?
    Unless the Leader of the Opposition is prepared to VoNC and try and take control themselves, there is little point to Parliament sitting anyway.

    The current LotO is not up to the job, by a VERY VERY long way, and so far, excepting some remarks by Ken Clarke, there seems to be no other opposition leader a majority would get behind.

    We need an election, just to sort out Parliament, let alone Brexit (we may need a 2nd Ref for that - we probably need both).
    I suspect not much will happen. Perhaps more tributes to Bercow?
    Trade Bill
    Fisheries Bill
    Animal Cruelty
    Divorce law
    Domestic Abuse

    These bills were in progress before the prorogation. They need to be worked on.
    There's also the Financial Services (Implementation of Legislation) Bill that has kept me up for months.

    God, I might actually have to start earning my salary again.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:



    3 line whip tomorrow

    Expecting shenanigans...
    One line FTPA amendment bill with the '21' able to stand as Tory candidates if they vote for and a deal done with a handful of the indies?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368

    Johnson acted illegally to improperly prorogue parliament. Parliament wants to keep sitting through Halloween to ensure No Deal is averted. So I would expect an emergency debate on a motion that the PM be found in Contempt of Parliament. That paves the way to an emergency government.

    They Will Not call an election until All Souls Day at the earliest. Which means a December election. WHich nobody wants. So it'll slip into 2020, and if you're waiting out the weather that surely means late April or May

    Who would benefit from waiting out the weather?

    Obviously the most committed vote will hold up - which is the Brexiteers
    But rural and elderly vote may be harder to get out - which is the Brexiteers

    Instinctively very bad weather could be good for remain, seasonably normal winter weather good for leave?
    2 of our 3 highest GE turnouts in the postwar period were Feb elections. I can see voting fatigue being more of an issue than weather.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,304
    I don't get this "don't agree with the ruling". It sound's like a teenager who cannot accept that they are wrong.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176
    RobD said:

    CD13 said:

    I still ask why Parliament is sitting. It has no intention of doing anything constructive. Amber Rudd speaks of doing something to break the logjam yet has no clear idea what.

    What bill will be passed? Or even debated? The backbenchers will merely talk and big themselves up and at the same time hide from the electorate. They don't want any sort of Brexit and they fear a general election. They even fear a VONC.

    This is a democracy? Really?

    It's a very good point. Parliament will return tomorrow and do what?
    Unless the Leader of the Opposition is prepared to VoNC and try and take control themselves, there is little point to Parliament sitting anyway.

    The current LotO is not up to the job, by a VERY VERY long way, and so far, excepting some remarks by Ken Clarke, there seems to be no other opposition leader a majority would get behind.

    We need an election, just to sort out Parliament, let alone Brexit (we may need a 2nd Ref for that - we probably need both).
    I suspect not much will happen. Perhaps more tributes to Bercow?
    Whilst I agree with the judgment, it will be interesting to see how the great MPs use the extra time they have now been given.

    More grandstanding, I expect.

    I am quite sceptical that the thwarting of an election -- while apparently have nothing of very great importance to do in Parliament on the main issue of the day -- will play that well with the electorate.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223

    If the anti-Brexit campaign is so sure of its ground, why wont it fight an election?

    It will, on terrain of its choosing. Not at the chosen timing of an unelected Prime Minister that has never won a vote.
    The Conservatives have been refusing another election ever since the 2017 election, then for a few weeks they have decided it was in their favour to have an election.

    Why should everyone jump when the Conservatives want an election if they don't when the shoe is on the other foot, for a far longer period as well.

    I think we should have one after we get an extension but Conservatives whining about it have very little ground to stand on.
    Nah, it should be what he's been waiting for. It is what he's been waiting for. He just won't take yes for an answer.

    Plus at some point I think the jibes about being frit will hit home to Jezza and he might snap and agree to an election. We know he doesn't really care about Brexit one way or another and on balance is anti-EU but his integrity is being impugned here and I'm not sure he is the sort of bloke to be called a coward consistently and not respond and there's your election.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The judgement specifically makes reference to 4-6 days. That's why I (And Steve Baker) are quoting this as a route for the Gov't to a QS.

    Yes, if Boris has any sense he will tone the rhetotic, instruct the @HYUFDs of this world to cut out the garbage about Quisling Remainiac judges, accept the result of the case with good grace, and re-prorogue parliament legally for a few days over the Tory conference period. He can then have his shiny new session and his flagship Queen's Speech to flesh out his Conference promises.

    If he does this, this whole constitutional crisis and embarrassment will soon be forgotten except by lawyers.
    Is this satire?

    Remainers have defeated Boris and Brexit in the Supreme Court. The war is far from over but this battle shows things are definitely going the Remainers’ way.

    This will be remembered the same way El Alamein was remembered after WW2.
    twat
    Why the dyspepsia? You should be happy. You’re winning.
  • Have any of those respectfully disagreeing with the Court's decision indicated in which respects the Judges erred in law?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    Drutt said:

    Eager to avoid boxing themselves in like the PM, Labour have just voted to go net carbon zero by 2030. That would mean about a hundred months to get rid of all petrol and diesel cars, all gas heating, 20% less meat and milk, [insert solution here] for shipping and aviation.

    Good luck.

    Yes, that is absurd.
    I am strongly in favour of urgent action on climate change, but urgent does not mean utterly unrealistic.

    Net zero globally by 2050 is a hard but not unrealistic target, which would be compatible with both greatly mitigating climate risk, and maintaining a functioning world economy.
    The UK probably need to get there a bit sooner than that.
  • eristdoof said:

    I don't get this "don't agree with the ruling". It sound's like a teenager who cannot accept that they are wrong.
    Nah, it is I think you're wrong, but I accept and respect you made your decision in good faith.
  • Scott_P said:



    3 line whip tomorrow

    Expecting shenanigans...
    One line FTPA amendment bill with the '21' able to stand as Tory candidates if they vote for and a deal done with a handful of the indies?
    And how does that get through the Lords?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 740
    edited September 2019

    Interesting slip of the tongue in Rudds interview. Nothing concrete but she sounded like she was about to talk about some or all of the '21' being back under the whip and corrected herself and just said she hoped no 10 would see the sense of consensus and cooperation etc.

    I think it is an open secret that the Chief Whip has told the 21 that if they vote with the Government on the Queen's Speech and explicit confidence votes they'll get the whip back.
    The '21' aren't 21 anymore. She forget about Gyimah. I think he's long gone.

    Edit - and I suspect a few others are as well (At least whilst Johnson is leader).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    kle4 said:

    Tory increase in the polls coming?


    polls are irrelevant at this stage in the game
    Not in how they motivate politicians. A GE is much more likely if the Tory polling collapses for example.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Interesting slip of the tongue in Rudds interview. Nothing concrete but she sounded like she was about to talk about some or all of the '21' being back under the whip and corrected herself and just said she hoped no 10 would see the sense of consensus and cooperation etc.

    I think it is an open secret that the Chief Whip has told the 21 that if they vote with the Government on the Queen's Speech and explicit confidence votes they'll get the whip back.
    The '21' aren't 21 anymore. She forget about Gyimah. I think he's long gone.
    Including her
  • moonshine said:

    HYFUD is the one with the connections but I’m scratching my head at the idea Boris will resign prior to 31 Oct.

    There’s no guarantee at all this would trigger an election with advantageous timing to him, it could easily lead to a second referendum instead and he would lose the polling benefit of incumbency, potentially giving it to the supposed enemy of the state Corbyn. Far better to comply with the Benn Law if that turns out to be the only alternative.

    Keep calm and carry on. All today does is give the Commons a few more days to grandstand. They already have their No To No Deal law on the books.

    Exactly. Boris should hold on, and send in the extension amidst a massive press conference, saying that he is doing this only to obey the law that the Remainer Parliament forced on him.

    Then take a copy, rip it up live on air, and say "This is what'll I'll do to the extension if you vote for me in the General Election".

    Job done!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    Scott_P said:



    3 line whip tomorrow

    Expecting shenanigans...
    One line FTPA amendment bill with the '21' able to stand as Tory candidates if they vote for and a deal done with a handful of the indies?
    And how does that get through the Lords?
    The Lords blocking an election for the Commons would be interesting.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Scott_P said:



    3 line whip tomorrow

    Expecting shenanigans...
    One line FTPA amendment bill with the '21' able to stand as Tory candidates if they vote for and a deal done with a handful of the indies?
    And how does that get through the Lords?
    Does it matter? Lords blocking a bill for an election passed by the commons would be a dreadful look and feed the 'narrative'
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,104
    I am pleased with the SC ruling as it confirms the primacy of Parliament in the UK constitution.

    This would limit thee powers of the executive in any future Corbyn government.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    I am pleased with the SC ruling as it confirms the primacy of Parliament in the UK constitution.

    This would limit thee powers of the executive in any future Corbyn government.

    I suspect if the Tories get through this and achieve Brexit they will be thrilled with it
  • Have any of those respectfully disagreeing with the Court's decision indicated in which respects the Judges erred in law?
    Yes, Article 9 of the Bill of Rights - Proceedings in Parliament not being open to the Courts. That was the Government's argument, that this was high politics and not the preserve of judges. Many legal experts thought this was likely to win the day - they were proved wrong but it doesn't mean it wasn't/isn't a reasonable position to take.
  • Scott_P said:



    3 line whip tomorrow

    Expecting shenanigans...
    More likely prudent planning? The Con whips can have no idea what others have planned and need all their MPs in place to protect their position as best they can.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481

    If the anti-Brexit campaign is so sure of its ground, why wont it fight an election?

    Frit?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2019
    blueblue said:

    moonshine said:

    HYFUD is the one with the connections but I’m scratching my head at the idea Boris will resign prior to 31 Oct.

    There’s no guarantee at all this would trigger an election with advantageous timing to him, it could easily lead to a second referendum instead and he would lose the polling benefit of incumbency, potentially giving it to the supposed enemy of the state Corbyn. Far better to comply with the Benn Law if that turns out to be the only alternative.

    Keep calm and carry on. All today does is give the Commons a few more days to grandstand. They already have their No To No Deal law on the books.

    Exactly. Boris should hold on, and send in the extension amidst a massive press conference, saying that he is doing this only to obey the law that the Remainer Parliament forced on him.

    Then take a copy, rip it up live on air, and say "This is what'll I'll do to the extension if you vote for me in the General Election".

    Job done!
    Wouldn't this just be a (more theatrical) repeat of the stance May took after Parliament made her get an extension? It didn't work for her.

    And the last bit of your post ("This is what'll I'll do to the extension if you vote for me in the General Election") is still based on the idea that Boris gets to choose when the election is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    Have any of those respectfully disagreeing with the Court's decision indicated in which respects the Judges erred in law?
    Yes, Article 9 of the Bill of Rights - Proceedings in Parliament not being open to the Courts. That was the Government's argument, that this was high politics and not the preserve of judges. Many legal experts thought this was likely to win the day - they were proved wrong but it doesn't mean it wasn't/isn't a reasonable position to take.
    True, but most who are angry are not exactly sticking to that, instead stating they know the judges politics.
  • Scott_P said:
    Who gives a **** about those things? When Corbyn and his demented cult are standing on stage heralding the coming far-left Utopia?
  • Robert will kick himself when he reads this back and spots the typo.

    What he meant to say is, "I take responsibility, as Lord Chancellor, for incorrectly advising the PM on the limitations of the prerogative power to prorogue Parliament. On such a crucial question and noting the damning and unanimous nature of the judgement, I am therefore resigning with immediate effect."
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481
    edited September 2019

    I am pleased with the SC ruling as it confirms the primacy of Parliament in the UK constitution.

    This would limit thee powers of the executive in any future Corbyn government.

    SC will back Jezza on most things and if they don't we can assume a majority Corbyn government will just abolish it...
  • I am pleased with the SC ruling as it confirms the primacy of Parliament in the UK constitution.

    This would limit thee powers of the executive in any future Corbyn government.

    If Corbyn ever gets in, I hope they are as unanimous and forthright in overturning his proposed seizures of private property...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    blueblue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who gives a **** about those things? When Corbyn and his demented cult are standing on stage heralding the coming far-left Utopia?
    The personal crap doesn't matter, unless official matters intruded. The court stuff does because it looks incompetent and his fans clearly despise judges who rule agai st them and boris can barely summon the effort to pretend otherwise.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,204

    Robert will kick himself when he reads this back and spots the typo.

    What he meant to say is, "I take responsibility, as Lord Chancellor, for incorrectly advising the PM on the limitations of the prerogative power to prorogue Parliament. On such a crucial question and noting the damning and unanimous nature of the judgement, I am therefore resigning with immediate effect."
    Why is it a resigning matter? It was tested in the Courts, much as say tax law is on a regular basis and a judgement made. The Government will be complying with that judgement. Move on.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    Has Boris gone yet?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    Scott_P said:
    Not according to Amber Rudd who said she heard nothing from the AG even though the cabinet had asked for it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,787
    blueblue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who gives a **** about those things? When Corbyn and his demented cult are standing on stage heralding the coming far-left Utopia?
    Change is coming
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    eristdoof said:

    I don't get this "don't agree with the ruling". It sound's like a teenager who cannot accept that they are wrong.
    What I don`t understand is why the Conservatives have decided that they ought to reverse all their previous policies on education, the NHS and the police. They ought to explain why they have. Could it be that all their previous policies were mistaken?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481
    edited September 2019
    blueblue said:

    I am pleased with the SC ruling as it confirms the primacy of Parliament in the UK constitution.

    This would limit thee powers of the executive in any future Corbyn government.

    If Corbyn ever gets in, I hope they are as unanimous and forthright in overturning his proposed seizures of private property...
    Well given most of the Remainer Judges are more than likely multi millionaires it'll be their assests he'll be seizing... Conflict of interest then means the SC will have to be abolished if they try and frustrate his plans.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I am pleased with the SC ruling as it confirms the primacy of Parliament in the UK constitution.

    This would limit thee powers of the executive in any future Corbyn government.

    SC will back Jezza on most things and if they don't we can assume a majority Corbyn government will just abolish it...
    The SC will go along with almost anything parliament has passed in primary legislation (even more so once the ECJ is no longer/less of a consideration). That's the difference with this: they've overturned something which was done to parliament precisely to stop it deciding its own business.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The judgement specifically makes reference to 4-6 days. That's why I (And Steve Baker) are quoting this as a route for the Gov't to a QS.

    Yes, if Boris has any sense he will tone the rhetotic, instruct the @HYUFDs of this world to cut out the garbage about Quisling Remainiac judges, accept the result of the case with good grace, and re-prorogue parliament legally for a few days over the Tory conference period. He can then have his shiny new session and his flagship Queen's Speech to flesh out his Conference promises.

    If he does this, this whole constitutional crisis and embarrassment will soon be forgotten except by lawyers.
    Is this satire?

    Remainers have defeated Boris and Brexit in the Supreme Court. The war is far from over but this battle shows things are definitely going the Remainers’ way.

    This will be remembered the same way El Alamein was remembered after WW2.
    twat
    Why the dyspepsia? You should be happy. You’re winning.
    I am always happy and I am not particularly winning in this instance. I don't want a no deal, and nor do I want a Corbyn government so my options aren't particularly great at this point.

    The possible pathways are enough to make anyone's head explode. If, as our favourite diehard Remainer @HYUFD believes, Boris resigns, Corbyn takes over, is VONC'd (as he would be with current numbers), and then there is a GE, would Boris stand or would he be out of the game forever not trusted by Brexiters. If he stands, would he win and then we are back to no deal (or are we what exactly does the Benn Act say?). Would, say, Hunt take over and then would Brexiters fuck off to TBP hence delivering Corbyn, or would Corbyn's support leak to the LDs in which case we are back with Cons (under...?).

    Or...or...

    I am certainly not winning. And while l'etat certainly n'est pas moi, I'm not sure anyone else in the UK is either.
  • blueblue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who gives a **** about those things? When Corbyn and his demented cult are standing on stage heralding the coming far-left Utopia?
    Change is coming
    Hopefully not in the way you expect! :wink:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,787
    Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Scott_P said:



    3 line whip tomorrow

    Expecting shenanigans...
    More likely prudent planning? The Con whips can have no idea what others have planned and need all their MPs in place to protect their position as best they can.
    Hope they didn't fly out with Thomas Cook....
  • Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    How many of Corbyn's own MPs voted to chuck him out? He didn't give a shit about that, and nor will or should Boris about this.
  • Norm said:

    Robert will kick himself when he reads this back and spots the typo.

    What he meant to say is, "I take responsibility, as Lord Chancellor, for incorrectly advising the PM on the limitations of the prerogative power to prorogue Parliament. On such a crucial question and noting the damning and unanimous nature of the judgement, I am therefore resigning with immediate effect."
    Why is it a resigning matter? It was tested in the Courts, much as say tax law is on a regular basis and a judgement made. The Government will be complying with that judgement. Move on.
    Depends what legal advice the Government was given. The Cabinet asked to see this advice and it was not forthcoming. That suggests it indicated the proposed proroguing was of questionable legality.

    That is probably a resigning matter.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,787
    GIN1138 said:

    blueblue said:

    I am pleased with the SC ruling as it confirms the primacy of Parliament in the UK constitution.

    This would limit thee powers of the executive in any future Corbyn government.

    If Corbyn ever gets in, I hope they are as unanimous and forthright in overturning his proposed seizures of private property...
    Well given most of the Remainer Judges are more than likely multi millionaires it'll be their assests he'll be seizing... Conflict of interest then means the SC will have to be abolished if they try and frustrate his plans.
    LoL good thinking.
  • Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,787

    Norm said:

    Robert will kick himself when he reads this back and spots the typo.

    What he meant to say is, "I take responsibility, as Lord Chancellor, for incorrectly advising the PM on the limitations of the prerogative power to prorogue Parliament. On such a crucial question and noting the damning and unanimous nature of the judgement, I am therefore resigning with immediate effect."
    Why is it a resigning matter? It was tested in the Courts, much as say tax law is on a regular basis and a judgement made. The Government will be complying with that judgement. Move on.
    Depends what legal advice the Government was given. The Cabinet asked to see this advice and it was not forthcoming. That suggests it indicated the proposed proroguing was of questionable legality.

    That is probably a resigning matter.
    Cox Out

    Jester would take it as an opportunity!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,912
    I reckon there might be one sacrificial lamb resignation - Geoffrey Cox may well have to consider his own position given he advised the Gov't prorogation would be legal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    I feel like the 'the judges are remainers' is a scripted kind of line which expected a split decision, because it becomes highly unlikely all 11, including the 'good' ones from the A50 case, voted the same way politically.
  • blueblue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who gives a **** about those things? When Corbyn and his demented cult are standing on stage heralding the coming far-left Utopia?
    What's all this "there is no alternative" sh1te?

    If Johnson is so worried about Corbyn, hand over to a Conservative who'll abide by the law, is capable of commanding the trust of colleagues, is able to win a Parliamentary vote, and isn't the sort of guy who hands contracts paid for with taxpayer money to his mistress.

    He's not the one thing that stands between us and the red menace. He's a massive part of the problem, and his best route now is to take the whisky and revolver, and to step outside.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,691
    Of course, this could be a cunning plan by Cummings and BoJo coming to fruition.

    Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for you voters. The MPs lied in their manifesto commitment to implement Brexit. They're now doing everything to maintain parliamentary will and not the voters' will. That's why they don't want a GE. The GE will be a battle between the voters and rogue MPs.

    Don't forget the polling showed that most voters assumed the MPs were sent to Parliament to enact their views, not their own.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,787

    Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    He put himself forward and was returned with an increased majority.

    Ohhh Jerrreeemmmmy Coòoorrrrbyn
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited September 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The judgement specifically makes reference to 4-6 days. That's why I (And Steve Baker) are quoting this as a route for the Gov't to a QS.

    Yes, if Boris has any sense he will tone the rhetotic, instruct the @HYUFDs of this world to cut out the garbage about Quisling Remainiac judges, accept the result of the case with good grace, and re-prorogue parliament legally for a few days over the Tory conference period. He can then have his shiny new session and his flagship Queen's Speech to flesh out his Conference promises.

    If he does this, this whole constitutional crisis and embarrassment will soon be forgotten except by lawyers.
    Is this satire?

    Remainers have defeated Boris and Brexit in the Supreme Court. The war is far from over but this battle shows things are definitely going the Remainers’ way.

    This will be remembered the same way El Alamein was remembered after WW2.
    twat
    Why the dyspepsia? You should be happy. You’re winning.
    I am always happy and I am not particularly winning in this instance. I don't want a no deal, and nor do I want a Corbyn government so my options aren't particularly great at this point.

    The possible pathways are enough to make anyone's head explode. If, as our favourite diehard Remainer @HYUFD believes, Boris resigns, Corbyn takes over, is VONC'd (as he would be with current numbers), and then there is a GE, would Boris stand or would he be out of the game forever not trusted by Brexiters. If he stands, would he win and then we are back to no deal (or are we what exactly does the Benn Act say?). Would, say, Hunt take over and then would Brexiters fuck off to TBP hence delivering Corbyn, or would Corbyn's support leak to the LDs in which case we are back with Cons (under...?).

    Or...or...

    I am certainly not winning. And while l'etat certainly n'est pas moi, I'm not sure anyone else in the UK is either.
    You’re missing the wood by focusing on the trees.

    Yes if you drill down to details Brexit is impossibly complex, confusing and hard to call. Again a good analogy is with a large war. If you focused on all the small human actions that make up a war, the individual choices of, and decisions by, soldiers, citizens, politicians, etc, then the war would appear monumentally messy. The data would overwhelm.

    So instead you have to step back and intuit the bigger picture. What does it feel like, out there? And that says Remain is winning, IMHO

    The only caveat I’d add is this presumes Dom and Boris don’t have a brilliant and cunning plan, which they will execute 4 minutes before Halloween. But I’m reaching the conclusion they have no such plan. They’re winging it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019
    LDs confirm they will support VONC even if no unity govt can be formed
  • Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    He put himself forward and was returned with an increased majority.

    Ohhh Jerrreeemmmmy Coòoorrrrbyn
    Yes, well that is Boris's plan too.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I reckon there might be one sacrificial lamb resignation - Geoffrey Cox may well have to consider his own position given he advised the Gov't prorogation would be legal.

    He may not have done. If he did, why was the Cabinet not shown the advice, as requested?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    blueblue said:

    If Corbyn ever gets in, I hope they are as unanimous and forthright in overturning his proposed seizures of private property...

    The government is not above the law. This is the point. It's a mistake to seek a partisan political angle in the ruling. There isn't one.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    CD13 said:

    Of course, this could be a cunning plan by Cummings and BoJo coming to fruition.

    Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for you voters. The MPs lied in their manifesto commitment to implement Brexit. They're now doing everything to maintain parliamentary will and not the voters' will. That's why they don't want a GE. The GE will be a battle between the voters and rogue MPs.

    Don't forget the polling showed that most voters assumed the MPs were sent to Parliament to enact their views, not their own.

    Absolutely. But go beyond October 31st and I don't see voters let alone TBP forgiving Boris for not having left. He is even at it today. So anything from November 1st sees him out of the game imo. It can be the most cunning plan of CummingDom but if he blows his deadline he's accepted that he has died.
  • Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    He put himself forward and was returned with an increased majority.

    Ohhh Jerrreeemmmmy Coòoorrrrbyn
    Dooooooooing worse than Miiiiiichael Foooot!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    edited September 2019

    Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    To be fair, Jezza has not found himself comprising HM with an unlawful act. An honourable resignation should be swift.
  • Jonathan said:

    Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    To be fair, Jezza has not found himself comprising HM with an unlawful act. An honourable resignation should be swift.
    He doesn't believe HM should be Queen and would abolish the mnonarchy tomorrow if he could. That's worse than miscalculating a prorogation!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481

    LDs confirm they will support VONC even if no unity govt can be formed

    Are we finally moving to an election?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,411
    edited September 2019
    sarissa said:

    Ms Miller was proven correct, wasn't she?

    Shes done more for democracy than the hordes of 'bring back control' Brexiteers.

    Whisper it quietly, but IMO Joanna Cherry is emerging as a very credible alternative leader to Nicola - she is also much more cautious on some of the more divisive SNP policies such as the Gender Recognition legislation.

    Nothing to do with being my MP, of course.
    I’m impressed by Cherry. Very impressed. She’s a terrific lawyer, whereas Sturgeon has been so absorbed by politics since her teens that she never really made the grade in law.

    However, Sturgeon is a politician from top to toe. I’m worried that Cherry may be a little naive. But maybe a bit of curiosity, naivety and innovation is what the country needs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,912

    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon there might be one sacrificial lamb resignation - Geoffrey Cox may well have to consider his own position given he advised the Gov't prorogation would be legal.

    He may not have done. If he did, why was the Cabinet not shown the advice, as requested?
  • Norm said:

    Robert will kick himself when he reads this back and spots the typo.

    What he meant to say is, "I take responsibility, as Lord Chancellor, for incorrectly advising the PM on the limitations of the prerogative power to prorogue Parliament. On such a crucial question and noting the damning and unanimous nature of the judgement, I am therefore resigning with immediate effect."
    Why is it a resigning matter? It was tested in the Courts, much as say tax law is on a regular basis and a judgement made. The Government will be complying with that judgement. Move on.
    Things do indeed go wrong in Government departments, in companies, in schools and so on all the time.

    But this isn't VAT in Jaffa Cakes for goodness sake - some kind of under the radar thing delegated to juniors at HMRC. This was a huge call taken at the very top level. It was wrong (very wrong - unanimously and damningly rejected). If you get the big ones so wrong, you go. That's ministerial responsibility, executive responsibility in a business, and so on.

  • isamisam Posts: 30,713
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The judgement specifically makes reference to 4-6 days. That's why I (And Steve Baker) are quoting this as a route for the Gov't to a QS.

    Yes, if

    If he does this, this whole constitutional crisis and embarrassment will soon be forgotten except by lawyers.
    Is this satire?

    Remainers have defeated Boris and Brexit in the Supreme Court. The war is far from over but this battle shows things are definitely going the Remainers’ way.

    This will be remembered the same way El Alamein was remembered after WW2.
    twat
    Why the dyspepsia? You should be happy. You’re winning.
    I am always happy and I am not particularly winning in this instance. I don't want a no deal, and nor do I want a Corbyn government so my options aren't particularly great at this point.

    The possible pathways are enough to make anyone's head explode. If, as our favourite diehard Remainer @HYUFD believes, Boris resigns, Corbyn takes over, is VONC'd (as he would be with current numbers), and then there is a GE, would Boris stand or would he be out of the game forever not trusted by Brexiters. If he stands, would he win and then we are back to no deal (or are we what exactly does the Benn Act say?). Would, say, Hunt take over and then would Brexiters fuck off to TBP hence delivering Corbyn, or would Corbyn's support leak to the LDs in which case we are back with Cons (under...?).

    Or...or...

    I am certainly not winning. And while l'etat certainly n'est pas moi, I'm not sure anyone else in the UK is either.
    You’re missing the wood by focusing on the trees.

    Yes if you drill down to details Brexit is impossibly complex, confusing and hard to call. Again a good analogy is with a large war. If you focused on all the small human actions that make up a war, the individual choices of, and decisions by, soldiers, citizens, politicians, etc, then the war would appear monumentally messy. The data would overwhelm.

    So instead you have to step back and intuit the bigger picture. What does it feel like, out there? And that says Remain is winning, IMHO

    The only caveat I’d add is this presumes Dom and Boris don’t have a brilliant and cunning plan, which they will execute 4 minutes before Halloween. But I’m reaching the conclusion they have no such plan. They’re winging it.
    Brexit is a kind of revolution, and we were trying to do it quietly. Boris seems to have tumbled that to get it done you have to be noisy and explosive. Today enables that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    The tory conference if it goes ahead will be baying for blood of the remainiacs, not literally one Hope's
  • GIN1138 said:

    LDs confirm they will support VONC even if no unity govt can be formed

    Are we finally moving to an election?
    That's a brave stance - does it mean they now believe the Benn bill is watertight and there must be an extension
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    For the millionth time, reading this site is not a reliable guide to the mood in country. They will be angry, and not at Boris. What was just about Brexit is now going to result in the closest we ever get to revolution. This has been mishandled all round (and no I never supported this ludicrous prorogation, I just doubted it was unlawful).

    Sigh..... Wake me up when it’s over.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    Surely Parliament an find a new PM other than Boris or Jeremy? A Tory who voted Leave who isn't in the Cabinet with integrity?

    No. I can't think of anyone either
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    blueblue said:

    Jonathan said:

    Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    To be fair, Jezza has not found himself comprising HM with an unlawful act. An honourable resignation should be swift.
    He doesn't believe HM should be Queen and would abolish the mnonarchy tomorrow if he could. That's worse than miscalculating a prorogation!
    It really isn't. Bozza has done more than believe something, his government quite deliberately did something unlawful that has compromised HM. If he had any honour he would go.

    He is hardly irreplaceable. The Tories could put it down to Summer madness, find a new leader and get on with it.
  • Jonathan said:

    Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    To be fair, Jezza has not found himself comprising HM with an unlawful act. An honourable resignation should be swift.
    Yes, well, I'd advise not holding your breath!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,701
    Jonathan said:

    blueblue said:

    Jonathan said:

    Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    To be fair, Jezza has not found himself comprising HM with an unlawful act. An honourable resignation should be swift.
    He doesn't believe HM should be Queen and would abolish the mnonarchy tomorrow if he could. That's worse than miscalculating a prorogation!
    It really isn't. Bozza has done more than believe something, his government quite deliberately did something unlawful that has compromised HM. If he had any honour he would go.

    He is hardly irreplaceable. The Tories could put it down to Summer madness, find a new leader and get on with it.
    Deliberately or inadvertantly?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,912
    edited September 2019
    Jonathan said:

    blueblue said:

    Jonathan said:

    Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    To be fair, Jezza has not found himself comprising HM with an unlawful act. An honourable resignation should be swift.
    He doesn't believe HM should be Queen and would abolish the mnonarchy tomorrow if he could. That's worse than miscalculating a prorogation!
    It really isn't. Bozza has done more than believe something, his government quite deliberately did something unlawful that has compromised HM. If he had any honour he would go.

    He is hardly irreplaceable. The Tories could put it down to Summer madness, find a new leader and get on with it.
    It's up to the Tories who their leader is, and the Commons who the Prime Minister is.

    No it hasn't, read the full judgement
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The opposition really have a constitutional duty to propose a VONC, otherwise what is the point of them? If you dont propose no conf now, then when?!
  • TOPPING said:

    CD13 said:

    Of course, this could be a cunning plan by Cummings and BoJo coming to fruition.

    Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for you voters. The MPs lied in their manifesto commitment to implement Brexit. They're now doing everything to maintain parliamentary will and not the voters' will. That's why they don't want a GE. The GE will be a battle between the voters and rogue MPs.

    Don't forget the polling showed that most voters assumed the MPs were sent to Parliament to enact their views, not their own.

    Absolutely. But go beyond October 31st and I don't see voters let alone TBP forgiving Boris for not having left. He is even at it today. So anything from November 1st sees him out of the game imo. It can be the most cunning plan of CummingDom but if he blows his deadline he's accepted that he has died.
    That doesn't make sense to me. Who gets the blame for not meeting the deadline will be the critical issue. If BJ is seen as battling to leave but stymied by remainers he will keep that part of the electorate.
  • blueblue said:

    moonshine said:

    HYFUD is the one with the connections but I’m scratching my head at the idea Boris will resign prior to 31 Oct.

    There’s no guarantee at all this would trigger an election with advantageous timing to him, it could easily lead to a second referendum instead and he would lose the polling benefit of incumbency, potentially giving it to the supposed enemy of the state Corbyn. Far better to comply with the Benn Law if that turns out to be the only alternative.

    Keep calm and carry on. All today does is give the Commons a few more days to grandstand. They already have their No To No Deal law on the books.

    Exactly. Boris should hold on, and send in the extension amidst a massive press conference, saying that he is doing this only to obey the law that the Remainer Parliament forced on him.

    Then take a copy, rip it up live on air, and say "This is what'll I'll do to the extension if you vote for me in the General Election".

    Job done!
    Actually I think HYFUD is right because it is the way he gets what he wants, which is an election. He resigns as PM, but not as leader of the Conservative Party. Possibly he nominates Raab safe in the knowledge it will never through but takes up a bit more time. But, at some point, Corbyn has to be invited to form a Government - forget all this nonsense about a GNU under Ken Clarke, Labour won't go with it, nor should it.

    What next? Voting for Corbyn puts the Lib Dems in an awful position. It sees the Tories absolutely hammer them in Tory Remain seats in the SE as backers of Corbyn and his redistributive policies. And, if the SNP join the LDs in backing Corbyn, then the Tories can also press home in Scotland that the only safe party for Unionists to vote for is the Conservative party.

    However, if the LDs do not vote for him, then it is unlikely he has the numbers given ex-Labour MPs etc (not to mention the 21 Conservatives). So we go to an election.

    If BJ is smart (big question), he resigns as PM
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    LDs confirm they will support VONC even if no unity govt can be formed

    Are we finally moving to an election?
    Lab say non
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950

    Jonathan said:

    Any self respecting manager would resign after an 11-0 defeat.

    Has Jester resigned yet?

    What's the hurry? We're still waiting for Corbyn to resign after overwhelmingly losing a vote of no confidence amongst his own MPs, three years ago.
    To be fair, Jezza has not found himself comprising HM with an unlawful act. An honourable resignation should be swift.
    Yes, well, I'd advise not holding your breath!
    Indeed. The (current) Tories will double down with Boris. The smart move would be chuck him overboard, find an actual Conservative leader, reunite the party and go to the country.

    They won't because it's a cult at the moment.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,701
    GIN1138 said:

    LDs confirm they will support VONC even if no unity govt can be formed

    Are we finally moving to an election?
    The Lib Dems have had a good few weeks and have a bit of mo - they would be idiots not to want an election IMO. Means nothing though if Labour and the SNP are against.
  • sladeslade Posts: 883

    God I love the law.

    I think I may put Lady Hale in the same category as my heroes, Atticus Finch and Henry Drummond/Clarence Darrow.

    and of course she is from Yorkshire.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,204

    Norm said:

    Robert will kick himself when he reads this back and spots the typo.

    What he meant to say is, "I take responsibility, as Lord Chancellor, for incorrectly advising the PM on the limitations of the prerogative power to prorogue Parliament. On such a crucial question and noting the damning and unanimous nature of the judgement, I am therefore resigning with immediate effect."
    Why is it a resigning matter? It was tested in the Courts, much as say tax law is on a regular basis and a judgement made. The Government will be complying with that judgement. Move on.
    Things do indeed go wrong in Government departments, in companies, in schools and so on all the time.

    But this isn't VAT in Jaffa Cakes for goodness sake - some kind of under the radar thing delegated to juniors at HMRC. This was a huge call taken at the very top level. It was wrong (very wrong - unanimously and damningly rejected). If you get the big ones so wrong, you go. That's ministerial responsibility, executive responsibility in a business, and so on.

    The reply to my post from PtP highlights an important distinction which I would agree with
This discussion has been closed.