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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

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  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    IanB2 said:

    Drutt said:

    Drutt said:

    Top, top thread from Fishing. Largely wasted on the likes of us, who skip over and shout about Brexit for the ten thousandth thread in a row.

    If the House impeached and the Senate got a majority, but not the supermajority needed for conviction, would Trump run in 2020? Could it happen swiftly enough for the GOP to switch to Pence, and would they? He's 80/1 next POTUS, which seems like value for a guy with two ways of getting there.

    Boh. That's Pence's 2020 odds, not his next POTUS odds.
    Word is Trump is looking for a woman to replace Pence
    Tulsi Gabbard! He'd take a decent chunk of the Bernie bros.
    I... don't think he would
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Nigelb said:

    rpjs said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm surprised by the churlish response to Fishing's excellent article, which seems to be being largely ignored. It deserves better.

    Churlish is a bit harsh, Richard, though it’s certainly worth discussion.

    The first Senate firewall is actually Senate majority leader McConnell - he might give any vote to impeach the Merrick Garland treatment, and simply refuse to bring it to trial in the Senate. What happens then is unclear, since the Constitution. doesn’t state explicitly the Senate must do so, and precedent doesn’t provide much of a guide, either.
    The Constitution states that the Chief Justice “presides” over Senate trials of the President, which implies to me that the CJ has the power to schedule the trial if no-one else will.
    No, the Senate has ‘sole power’, according to the constitution. The CJ merely presides over the impeachment proceedings. The possibility is being discussed already:
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/28/mitch-mcconnell-trump-impeachment-007689
    I sit corrected. I doubt they’ll be able to get away with Garlanding impeachment though. It’s saying they know the trial would result in conviction.
    Nigelb said:

    One possible wrinkle is Congress voting to impeach both Trump and Pence. Is it possible there might be a handful of Republican Senators who might then fancy their chances for the nomination ? Seems unlikely, but we live in strange times.

    No, because it would hand the Presidency for the election year to Nancy Pelosi! A double impeachment won’t fly for that reason for anything short of Trump and Pence urinating on the American flag while bragging about selling the country to Putin on live TV.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:



    I expect Boris to win the November general election in the UK this year and Trump to be re elected after the US presidential election next November

    You surprise me. Having read your previous posts I have often been struck by your pessimism as to the electoral prospects of the Conservative and Republican Parties.
    But Trump? Oh come on! Trump's lousy disapproval rating at this stage in his 2020 it will be in spite of Trump rather than because of him.
    Major also led the Tories to their worst defeat since 1832 in 1997 though.

    Trump also won 304 EC votes in 2016, the highest for any GOP candidate since Bush Snr in 1988 and Bush Snr failed to be re elected in 1992.

    Of course my point relies on both Boris and Trump being re elected but I expect they will be (even now Trump has a higher approval rating than Obama had in 2011 before his re election)
    I am judging Major and Johnson by the first election they contested. If Johnson wins and then pulls off another victory in 2024 after 14 years of Conservative government (1997 was 18 for Major) you can come back here and claim bragging rights, even though I was not contesting your point but rather the degree of certainty in your assertion.

    On your chosen measure of approval, Trump is currently 0.1 ahead of where Obama was (at the very nadir of Obama's ratings), but 2.1 behind on disapproval and so 2.0 behind on net approval. He is at broadly the same level as Carter who lost badly and behind Bush Snr and Ford who were the others to lose. He is behind all the others who won. He is a liability.
    I expect Boris to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987, bigger than Cameron's in 2015 and bigger than Major's in 1992 (like Major's it would be a 4th consecutive Tory term for Boris).

    Trump's approval rating with Gallup is 43% at this stage, higher than the 41% for Obama at this stage of his presidency and far higher than the 33% Carter had at this stage of his presidency

    https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_campaign=tiles
    I cannot see BoJo picking up the seats in Labour heartlands like Thatcher did. 1987 it has to be remembered had first time incumbency for 1983 Tory gains. Yes, like 1987 the Tories might take a few safe Labour seats i.e. 1987: Walthamstow. But I think the driver is not as strong. Defence in 1983 & 1987 really were a strong card for the Tories. Brexit on the otherhand has shattered May's 2017 vote.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    O/T

    "'Absolutely shocking' - Denise Lewis on empty stands in Doha"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/athletics/49872232
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Andy_JS said:

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Portsmouth South (Shadsy)

    LD Evs
    Con 7/4
    Lab 3/1
    Bxp 20/1

    My model for Portsmouth South gives:
    LibDem 14,117
    Con 11,655
    Lab 11,650
    BXP 6,299
    Labour hold - having won from third place in 2017. Anti-Tory vote will swing behind new Labour MP who will also enjoy first term incumbency.
    It depends whether Labour stages another miraculous recovery during the election campaign.
    Labour's campaign is going to depend on it. What happens when it doesn't materialise will be fun to watch.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Portsmouth South (Shadsy)

    LD Evs
    Con 7/4
    Lab 3/1
    Bxp 20/1

    My model for Portsmouth South gives:
    LibDem 14,117
    Con 11,655
    Lab 11,650
    BXP 6,299
    Looks about right.
    Labour first to third....
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Andy_JS said:

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Portsmouth South (Shadsy)

    LD Evs
    Con 7/4
    Lab 3/1
    Bxp 20/1

    My model for Portsmouth South gives:
    LibDem 14,117
    Con 11,655
    Lab 11,650
    BXP 6,299
    Labour hold - having won from third place in 2017. Anti-Tory vote will swing behind new Labour MP who will also enjoy first term incumbency.
    It depends whether Labour stages another miraculous recovery during the election campaign.
    Labour's campaign is going to depend on it. What happens when it doesn't materialise will be fun to watch.....
    I don't think anything can be predicted with regard the Labour vote. I keep saying it but I remember 2010 when Labour were down to 22% after the bigoted woman incident. By polling day, Labour had recovered 7 points and achieved 29%. Corbyn can change the pledges as the campaign evolves. The Tories through their sudden conversion to uncosted spending and dismissal of 'project fear' have opened the way up for Corbyn. You cannot realistically run a negative campaign, when you have dismissed valid concerns of No Deal as project fear...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,236

    Andy_JS said:

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Portsmouth South (Shadsy)

    LD Evs
    Con 7/4
    Lab 3/1
    Bxp 20/1

    My model for Portsmouth South gives:
    LibDem 14,117
    Con 11,655
    Lab 11,650
    BXP 6,299
    Labour hold - having won from third place in 2017. Anti-Tory vote will swing behind new Labour MP who will also enjoy first term incumbency.
    It depends whether Labour stages another miraculous recovery during the election campaign.
    Labour's campaign is going to depend on it. What happens when it doesn't materialise will be fun to watch.....
    I don't think anything can be predicted with regard the Labour vote. I keep saying it but I remember 2010 when Labour were down to 22% after the bigoted woman incident. By polling day, Labour had recovered 7 points and achieved 29%. Corbyn can change the pledges as the campaign evolves. The Tories through their sudden conversion to uncosted spending and dismissal of 'project fear' have opened the way up for Corbyn. You cannot realistically run a negative campaign, when you have dismissed valid concerns of No Deal as project fear...
    They don't have to. It'll be Remain vs Leave vs Um. Con will be Leave, Lib will be Remain, Labour will be Um. Some people will talk about the NHS occasionally, but if we have not left (or have only recently left) it'll be a Brexit election.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    Interesting (and I suspect controversial) article about the relationship between wokeness and business / neo-liberalism.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/30/anti-woke/

    Quote:

    "I think this is the best way to view the woke so-called left. Wokeness makes a virtue of the atomisation that is a key feature of life in capitalist society. Wokeness doesn’t challenge the individuation and corrosion of social solidarity that neoliberal society brings about. It simply repackages it as PC and celebrates it. It commodifies our atomisation and sells it back to us as right-on politics."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,236
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting (and I suspect controversial) article about the relationship between wokeness and business / neo-liberalism.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/30/anti-woke/

    Quote:

    "I think this is the best way to view the woke so-called left. Wokeness makes a virtue of the atomisation that is a key feature of life in capitalist society. Wokeness doesn’t challenge the individuation and corrosion of social solidarity that neoliberal society brings about. It simply repackages it as PC and celebrates it. It commodifies our atomisation and sells it back to us as right-on politics."

    I'll bookmark that. But not for the reasons you'd think... :(
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Portsmouth South (Shadsy)

    LD Evs
    Con 7/4
    Lab 3/1
    Bxp 20/1

    My model for Portsmouth South gives:
    LibDem 14,117
    Con 11,655
    Lab 11,650
    BXP 6,299
    Labour hold - having won from third place in 2017. Anti-Tory vote will swing behind new Labour MP who will also enjoy first term incumbency.
    It depends whether Labour stages another miraculous recovery during the election campaign.
    Labour's campaign is going to depend on it. What happens when it doesn't materialise will be fun to watch.....
    I don't think anything can be predicted with regard the Labour vote. I keep saying it but I remember 2010 when Labour were down to 22% after the bigoted woman incident. By polling day, Labour had recovered 7 points and achieved 29%. Corbyn can change the pledges as the campaign evolves. The Tories through their sudden conversion to uncosted spending and dismissal of 'project fear' have opened the way up for Corbyn. You cannot realistically run a negative campaign, when you have dismissed valid concerns of No Deal as project fear...
    They don't have to. It'll be Remain vs Leave vs Um. Con will be Leave, Lib will be Remain, Labour will be Um. Some people will talk about the NHS occasionally, but if we have not left (or have only recently left) it'll be a Brexit election.
    As 2017 was. Oh, wait...…….
  • justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Portsmouth South (Shadsy)

    LD Evs
    Con 7/4
    Lab 3/1
    Bxp 20/1

    My model for Portsmouth South gives:
    LibDem 14,117
    Con 11,655
    Lab 11,650
    BXP 6,299
    Labour hold - having won from third place in 2017. Anti-Tory vote will swing behind new Labour MP who will also enjoy first term incumbency.
    Maybe. Current polling has a LAB to LD swing of 16% since GE2017. A massive factor is that LAB have dropped from their GE2017 share of 41% while the LDs have advanced from 7.6% at GE2017 to 20%+

  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "'Absolutely shocking' - Denise Lewis on empty stands in Doha"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/athletics/49872232

    Denise should also have told us what the local time was. You should not expect people to turn up in droves at 1:30 am. All this done so that people in Western Europe and the US can watch it in "normal times".
    But soon China, Japan, South Asia will also demand these events are held at their suitable hours because they will have the money to do so. That will be fun. The 100m final took place at 04:20 am in China, 01:50 in India.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    IanB2 said:

    Drutt said:

    Drutt said:

    Top, top thread from Fishing. Largely wasted on the likes of us, who skip over and shout about Brexit for the ten thousandth thread in a row.

    If the House impeached and the Senate got a majority, but not the supermajority needed for conviction, would Trump run in 2020? Could it happen swiftly enough for the GOP to switch to Pence, and would they? He's 80/1 next POTUS, which seems like value for a guy with two ways of getting there.

    Boh. That's Pence's 2020 odds, not his next POTUS odds.
    Word is Trump is looking for a woman to replace Pence
    Tulsi Gabbard! He'd take a decent chunk of the Bernie bros.
    Look no further than Nikki Haley. She ticks many boxes.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given any Republican Senator who voted to impeach Trump would likely lose a primary challenge when next up for re election they are not going to commit political suicide by doing so, so the Republican majority in the Senate would ensure Trump is not convicted

    I think Trump will last longer than Boris! :smiley:
    I expect Boris to win the November general election in the UK this year and Trump to be re elected after the US presidential election next November
    At what time frame would you expect a November election? At the start, the middle or end? I am genuinely interested from your perspective as a Conservative foot soldier.
    31st November :wink:
    Glad I won't be out in all weather delivering leaflets! Just imagine the turnout if we had a cold snap to rival November/December 2010...
    Worth bearing in mind that a very late election reduces the effectiveness of the Labour and LibDem field operations....
    Not in Richmond Park!

    On 1st December 2016 the LibDems overturned a 23,000 Tory majority to elect Sarah Olney. We are waterproof and have torches. Bring it on!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Richmond_Park_by-election

    The mystery is how the Tories managed to win the seat in 2017 by 45 votes.
    The Labour vote went up from 1,500 in 2016 to 5,800 in 2017.

    The LibDems took the Labour vote for granted and LibDem HQ sent a letter to all known Labour supporters dissing Corbyn. That alone probably cost the LibDems the extra 45 tactical Labour votes (out of 5,800 Labour votes) that were needed. The same mistakes won't be made again.
    Yes, that was not a good idea. Many people on PB also think the same way. They forget many Labour supporters do not think like they do.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump is a conservative, just a populist one

    He was a registered Democrat 10 years ago.
    And pro-abortion. Basically, he was always Pro-Trump.

  • Tulsi Gabbard! He'd take a decent chunk of the Bernie bros.

    I... don't think he would
    There's a lot of bernie-trump crossover. That's why Trump mentioned Bernie Sanders in basically every speech or debate performance. By the end of the primary they're going to hate whoever beats Bernie with a passion and they really like Tulsi...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    HYUFD said:


    I expect Boris to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987, bigger than Cameron's in 2015 and bigger than Major's in 1992 (like Major's it would be a 4th consecutive Tory term for Boris).

    Trump's approval rating with Gallup is 43% at this stage, higher than the 41% for Obama at this stage of his presidency and far higher than the 33% Carter had at this stage of his presidency

    https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_campaign=tiles

    I cannot see BoJo picking up the seats in Labour heartlands like Thatcher did. 1987 it has to be remembered had first time incumbency for 1983 Tory gains. Yes, like 1987 the Tories might take a few safe Labour seats i.e. 1987: Walthamstow. But I think the driver is not as strong. Defence in 1983 & 1987 really were a strong card for the Tories. Brexit on the otherhand has shattered May's 2017 vote.
    The right to buy gained more than a few votes in council estates, which helped to eat into the Labour seats.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Portsmouth South (Shadsy)

    LD Evs
    Con 7/4
    Lab 3/1
    Bxp 20/1

    My model for Portsmouth South gives:
    LibDem 14,117
    Con 11,655
    Lab 11,650
    BXP 6,299
    Labour hold - having won from third place in 2017. Anti-Tory vote will swing behind new Labour MP who will also enjoy first term incumbency.
    Maybe. Current polling has a LAB to LD swing of 16% since GE2017. A massive factor is that LAB have dropped from their GE2017 share of 41% while the LDs have advanced from 7.6% at GE2017 to 20%+

    I know subsets aren't reliable but the latest YouGov London figures had Lab and LD neck-and-neck compared to a 55% to 9% gap at GE2017. That's a pretty massive swing if it's anything like correct.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    Portsmouth South (Shadsy)

    LD Evs
    Con 7/4
    Lab 3/1
    Bxp 20/1

    Why LD there? I don’t know anything about the constituency but they came 3rd in 2017 and it voted Leave?
    They held it from 1997 - 2015 and (as the SDP) from 1984-7. 2017 was the first time that Labour had ever won the seat. Portsmouth South voted by 51.8% for Brexit, marginally lower than the UK total, and a bit lower than the average for England.
    If a westminster seat was won 51.8% to 48.2% it would be called a marginal. But with the brexit referendum it is simply labelled "Leave".
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anyone know when the SNP are likely to table a VONC?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    A (for once) decent Simon Jenkins article on the similarity between Trump and Johnson’s discourse:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/29/boris-johnson-brexit-deal-dominic-cummings-eu
    Johnson’s theatrical belligerence – which he absurdly told the Andrew Marr Show on Sunday was “misunderstood … a model of restraint” – is a trope borrowed from US politics, seen most vigorously in the antics of Donald Trump. It goes back to the tactic adopted by the McCarthyites in the 1950s, when any victim of Joseph McCarthy and his young lawyer Roy Cohn would be assailed with wildly repetitive accusations of communism and homosexuality. Cohn’s tactic was “to bring out the worst in my enemies; that’s how I get them to defeat themselves”. He would “go after a man’s weakness, and never threaten unless you mean to follow through to the end”. Cohn went on to advise Richard Nixon and ended as personal lawyer to none other than the young Trump, clearly an avid pupil.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone know when the SNP are likely to table a VONC?

    My understanding is, never. IIUC the SNP said they want to do a VONC but they need all the opposition parties on board with a strategy.

    All the opposition parties aren't on board: The Corbyn vs Grandee game of chicken is unresolved and is unlikely to be resolved until there's a proper emergency. And if it was resolved, and Labour had a way to get Corbyn or somebody they supported into Downing Street, presumably *Labour* would bring the VONC.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "'Absolutely shocking' - Denise Lewis on empty stands in Doha"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/athletics/49872232

    Denise should also have told us what the local time was. You should not expect people to turn up in droves at 1:30 am. All this done so that people in Western Europe and the US can watch it in "normal times".
    But soon China, Japan, South Asia will also demand these events are held at their suitable hours because they will have the money to do so. That will be fun. The 100m final took place at 04:20 am in China, 01:50 in India.
    The times are not set by the IAAF but are the ones set by Qatar based on weather conditions (the day is too hot) and what was offered byatar in their bid document.

    The race day finishes at 1:30 in the morning because Qatar offered that so that they won the competition to host the tournament.

    And the 2022 World Cup will be the same. Few people are going to fly 3+ hours each way (the current plan due to lack of hotels and arguments with neighbours) to watch a football match.


  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    isam said:

    Been in town, in pubs ,shops and on trams a lot this weekend, the locals are discussing what's happening in the city .

    Repeatedly more than any thing else, I've heard comments about how dull and boring Brexit is and aren't the people who care so much to protest strange

    It's my strong suspicion that Brexit isn't going to be the deciding factor as to which way many normal people vote at a forthcoming election as many political anoraks on here seem to imagine.

    I'm not expecting areas with strong historical reluctance to voting Tory suddenly changing, Brexit simply isn't the top major issue for many people who have real normal lives with other greater concerns as they see them.

    I think that’s right. Most people don’t seem to give a toss about it.
    +1 It's just us geeks and the political journos who care much.
    In my experience, people who aren't into politics barely ever talk about politics at all, but when they do its about Brexit.

    That is to say, my crowd of friends barely talk about politics, hence I talk about it on here, but the only political issue they do talk about is Brexit

    I bet those people who "aren't into politics" are talking politics all the time. Just not talking party politics or westminster etc. They are nevertheless complaining about how rubbish the train service is, or the state of the roads, or yet another shop on the high street closing down.
  • isam said:

    Been in town, in pubs ,shops and on trams a lot this weekend, the locals are discussing what's happening in the city .

    Repeatedly more than any thing else, I've heard comments about how dull and boring Brexit is and aren't the people who care so much to protest strange

    It's my strong suspicion that Brexit isn't going to be the deciding factor as to which way many normal people vote at a forthcoming election as many political anoraks on here seem to imagine.

    I'm not expecting areas with strong historical reluctance to voting Tory suddenly changing, Brexit simply isn't the top major issue for many people who have real normal lives with other greater concerns as they see them.

    I think that’s right. Most people don’t seem to give a toss about it.
    +1 It's just us geeks and the political journos who care much.
    In my experience, people who aren't into politics barely ever talk about politics at all, but when they do its about Brexit.

    That is to say, my crowd of friends barely talk about politics, hence I talk about it on here, but the only political issue they do talk about is Brexit
    There are some guys in my office who, for the last couple of months of the last football season were constantly joshing with each other about the respective merits (or otherwise) of Liverpool and Machester United. If United had done badly the one of them would make a special effort to spend more time over our end of the office to tease about it.

    Maybe the start of the football season is less interesting, but I've never heard so much chat about politics in an office before, and it's all about the Supreme Court, or votes in the Commons, Brexit all the time. The office is in a Remain part of Remain London, so no-one has broken cover to admit to supporting the damn thing, but I would be surprised if there weren't workplaces (or bridge clubs, or wherever it is that retired people congregate) where the talk often turns to politics, by which I mean Brexit, and their shared exasperation that we haven't left yet.

    My experience is certainly not ManchesterKurt's experience.
    I am guessing people who work on offices aren't very representative of the normal people in working class areas maybe?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Happy New Year Toby!

    May your Rosh Hashanah be a happy one
    and your damages not be TOO crippling!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "'Absolutely shocking' - Denise Lewis on empty stands in Doha"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/athletics/49872232

    Denise should also have told us what the local time was. You should not expect people to turn up in droves at 1:30 am. All this done so that people in Western Europe and the US can watch it in "normal times".
    But soon China, Japan, South Asia will also demand these events are held at their suitable hours because they will have the money to do so. That will be fun. The 100m final took place at 04:20 am in China, 01:50 in India.
    The times are not set by the IAAF but are the ones set by Qatar based on weather conditions (the day is too hot) and what was offered by Qatar in their bid document.

    The race day finishes at 1:30 in the morning because Qatar offered that so that they won the competition to host the tournament.

    And the 2022 World Cup will be the same. Few people are going to fly 3+ hours each way (the current plan due to lack of hotels and arguments with neighbours) to watch a football match.
    FWIW Qatar is only two hours ahead of BST, i.e. that 200m took place just before 11:30pm, not 1:30am. But yes, still a tad on the late side for the locals.

    World Cup matches, being held in midwinter, should be on at more sensible times but it would not be a surprise to see those taking place in half-empty stadiums either. Not that this will greatly concern FIFA any more than it has the IAAF, income from ticket sales being trivial by comparison with that from broadcast rights and advertising.
  • On topic I agree that the Republicans have tied themselves tightly to Donald Trump. They’ll shift only if the polls make it impossible to do otherwise.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    On topic I agree that the Republicans have tied themselves tightly to Donald Trump. They’ll shift only if the polls make it impossible to do otherwise.

    What I find baffling about the Impeachment and senate conviction process, is that it seems to be completely about "Dems vs Reps", and nothing about "has the president broken the rules so badly that he has brought the position into disrepute".

  • Excellent article by Fishing which, as Richard Nabavi points out far down this thread, has got far too little attention on here.

    On topic, I agree: this impeachment will be used as part of the Democrats campaign strategy for 2020 and isn’t a serious threat to Trump barring the blackest or black swans.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nigelb said:

    A (for once) decent Simon Jenkins article on the similarity between Trump and Johnson’s discourse:

    Also Trump overnight is threatening civil war if he is impeached while BoZo threatens riots if we don't crash out of the EU to his deadline.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited September 2019
    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    eristdoof said:

    Portsmouth South (Shadsy)

    LD Evs
    Con 7/4
    Lab 3/1
    Bxp 20/1

    Why LD there? I don’t know anything about the constituency but they came 3rd in 2017 and it voted Leave?
    They held it from 1997 - 2015 and (as the SDP) from 1984-7. 2017 was the first time that Labour had ever won the seat. Portsmouth South voted by 51.8% for Brexit, marginally lower than the UK total, and a bit lower than the average for England.
    If a westminster seat was won 51.8% to 48.2% it would be called a marginal. But with the brexit referendum it is simply labelled "Leave".
    Also need to bear in mind that Portsmouth South is not fixed in aspic as per June 2016. As in much of the rest of the country there is probably majority Remain.

    2 further factors: Portsmouth is increasingly a University town. Those students broke for Corbyn in 2017, but look more LD/Green now. Secondly, No Deal gridlock particularly affects Portsmouth because of the Normandy ferries. Not popular.

    LD gain very possible, fair odds from Shadsy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "'Absolutely shocking' - Denise Lewis on empty stands in Doha"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/athletics/49872232

    Denise should also have told us what the local time was. You should not expect people to turn up in droves at 1:30 am. All this done so that people in Western Europe and the US can watch it in "normal times".
    But soon China, Japan, South Asia will also demand these events are held at their suitable hours because they will have the money to do so. That will be fun. The 100m final took place at 04:20 am in China, 01:50 in India.
    The times are not set by the IAAF but are the ones set by Qatar based on weather conditions (the day is too hot) and what was offered by Qatar in their bid document.

    The race day finishes at 1:30 in the morning because Qatar offered that so that they won the competition to host the tournament.

    And the 2022 World Cup will be the same. Few people are going to fly 3+ hours each way (the current plan due to lack of hotels and arguments with neighbours) to watch a football match.
    FWIW Qatar is only two hours ahead of BST, i.e. that 200m took place just before 11:30pm, not 1:30am. But yes, still a tad on the late side for the locals.

    World Cup matches, being held in midwinter, should be on at more sensible times but it would not be a surprise to see those taking place in half-empty stadiums either. Not that this will greatly concern FIFA any more than it has the IAAF, income from ticket sales being trivial by comparison with that from broadcast rights and advertising.
    ...and the bungs they got to take it to Qatar......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    I'm pretty sure that hospital will still be there, and available to use, after Brexit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2019
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "'Absolutely shocking' - Denise Lewis on empty stands in Doha"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/athletics/49872232

    Denise should also have told us what the local time was. You should not expect people to turn up in droves at 1:30 am. All this done so that people in Western Europe and the US can watch it in "normal times".
    But soon China, Japan, South Asia will also demand these events are held at their suitable hours because they will have the money to do so. That will be fun. The 100m final took place at 04:20 am in China, 01:50 in India.
    The times are not set by the IAAF but are the ones set by Qatar based on weather conditions (the day is too hot) and what was offered byatar in their bid document.

    The race day finishes at 1:30 in the morning because Qatar offered that so that they won the competition to host the tournament.

    And the 2022 World Cup will be the same. Few people are going to fly 3+ hours each way (the current plan due to lack of hotels and arguments with neighbours) to watch a football match.
    The World Cup in Qatar is going to be one hell of a mess. There’s barely enough hotel rooms on the island for the completing teams and officials, and the political situation rules out using Bahrain and Dubai as spectator hubs. UK fans are either going to have to fly in and back out the same day (7 hours each way) or use somewhere like Istanbul as a hub. I doubt they’ll sell many tickets, stadia will be full of schoolkids and local families.

    Yes, it’s too hot at the moment during the day, 35-40°C, but more importantly I’m not sure people around the world even realised the event was on.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Roger said:

    Happy New Year Toby!

    May your Rosh Hashanah be a happy one
    and your damages not be TOO crippling!
    Not sure admitting it is absurd helps Hammond's case that a statement is defamatory.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Thank you to @Fishing for a really interesting article.
  • SunnyJim said:



    Worth bearing in mind that a very late election reduces the effectiveness of the Labour and LibDem field operations....

    I've joined my local party and have volunteered to help during any forthcoming election.

    Really looking forward to it.
    You will love it, I have campaigned in the last 5 elections and they have always been fun and good spited..

    People always talk about the weather at elections and say in bad weather Labour and LD don't campaign and Los tory voters don't turn out... In reality this is tosh and old tories more often than not have postal votes and the rest turn out whatever as they see voting as their duty. Similarly LD activists are a hardened bunch and they campaign whatever comes and many have been doing so for decades and some rain wont put them off..

    If the weather and time of year was going to have an impact on any parties vote it may be Labour as younger people who work may not turn out if its dark and raining by 6pm, but even then I really don't think it will make a difference as again they will be quite motivated.

    Out of interest which seat are you planning on campaigning in? I have helped out in 7 over my time
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    edited September 2019
    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Passteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    To be fair to the NHS, we had a similar experience at Cumberland Infirmary, Carlisle in July. Not as many tests, but we were back, reassured, in our accommodation near Keswick some three hours after we'd set off.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    BUPA like all medical insurance doesn't really do emergency stuff.

    The biggest effect of losing EHIC will be on older people with existing conditions. Travel Insurance for a reasonably fit fifty something is a minor nusiance, for a seventy something with diabetes, heart problems, previous cancer etc it will be a major hassle and expense. It will affect winter sun particularly.

    Hope all is well now, and happy new year!
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Good article, Mr. Fishing. Must say I agree.
  • Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Also I know British people don't like to hear this but the NHS is kind of shite. There's really no need for all the waiting and stuff that happens in Britain - most developed countries are way better (but not America obviously).
  • Scott_P said:
    No worries, Saj. The press will be investigating thoroughly. ‘Have you been groped by the PM? Ring this number now.’
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,677

    3rd like SNP

    Ha Ha Ha , that from the loser party
  • Thanks Fishing, that is a very good piece, well written and with excellent analysis. I guess it helps I agree with your conclusions :)

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    No worries, Saj. The press will be investigating thoroughly. ‘Have you been groped by the PM? Ring this number now.’

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1178368722651815937
  • Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    BUPA like all medical insurance doesn't really do emergency stuff.

    The biggest effect of losing EHIC will be on older people with existing conditions. Travel Insurance for a reasonably fit fifty something is a minor nusiance, for a seventy something with diabetes, heart problems, previous cancer etc it will be a major hassle and expense. It will affect winter sun particularly.

    Hope all is well now, and happy new year!
    I tend to complain about free TV licenses for the (non poor) elderly as think it is an absurd waste of money and wholly unprogressive. I would not be against that money being allocated to 2 weeks foreign travel insurance being provided to over 75s by the govt.

    Whilst still unprogressive, insuring across x million people instead of an individual with specific risk conditions (that the insurer cannot know perfectly) will be much much cheaper per person.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Also I know British people don't like to hear this but the NHS is kind of shite. There's really no need for all the waiting and stuff that happens in Britain - most developed countries are way better (but not America obviously).
    Yes, UK and USA are the two outliers in healthcare for developed countries - everyone else does it a lot better. The advantage of the NHS is that it’s relatively cheap.
  • Re Fishing's piece, I think Trump has done this deliberately knowing that there is no way he will be impeached on the evidence but having given the Democrats enough rope to go after him and (the key thing) making sure that Biden's name is repeatedly brought up time and time again in relation to the accusations. So far the fact the whistlebrower heard the information second-hand and that Rep Adam Schliff is being forced to defend himself against claims he deliberately misled the public with what was said in the transcript is not helping things.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Roger said:

    Happy New Year Toby!

    May your Rosh Hashanah be a happy one
    and your damages not be TOO crippling!
    Not sure admitting it is absurd helps Hammond's case that a statement is defamatory.
    Point of order: a statement can be both absurd - because untrue - and defamatory.

    If the statement were true then Mr Young would have a valid defence to a defamation claim.

    In any case he’s now withdrawn it though it was an interesting insight into how his mind works.

    I understood that the claim about hedge funds shorting the pound had been shown to be nonsense anyway. Is Hammond simply repeating that claim or does he have some other fresh information? He might also have some insight from his time as Chancellor, of course, since he would certainly have been given information about market movements, based on what the Treasury and financial regulators were seeing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    BUPA like all medical insurance doesn't really do emergency stuff.

    The biggest effect of losing EHIC will be on older people with existing conditions. Travel Insurance for a reasonably fit fifty something is a minor nusiance, for a seventy something with diabetes, heart problems, previous cancer etc it will be a major hassle and expense. It will affect winter sun particularly.

    Hope all is well now, and happy new year!
    Eighty something with two previous cancers and I can get travel insurance. It adds about 25-30% to the travel (not accommodation) costs. No heart problems (as far as I know...... ECG's have always been OK) though.
    Off to the gym now; see you all in a couple of hours!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    isam said:

    Been in town, in pubs ,shops and on trams a lot this weekend, the locals are discussing what's happening in the city .

    Repeatedly more than any thing else, I've heard comments about how dull and boring Brexit is and aren't the people who care so much to protest strange

    It's my strong suspicion that Brexit isn't going to be the deciding factor as to which way many normal people vote at a forthcoming election as many political anoraks on here seem to imagine.

    I'm not expecting areas with strong historical reluctance to voting Tory suddenly changing, Brexit simply isn't the top major issue for many people who have real normal lives with other greater concerns as they see them.

    I think that’s right. Most people don’t seem to give a toss about it.
    +1 It's just us geeks and the political journos who care much.
    In my experience, people who aren't into politics barely ever talk about politics at all, but when they do its about Brexit.

    That is to say, my crowd of friends barely talk about politics, hence I talk about it on here, but the only political issue they do talk about is Brexit
    There are some guys in my office who, for the last couple of months of the last football season were constantly joshing with

    My experience is certainly not ManchesterKurt's experience.
    I am guessing people who work on offices aren't very representative of the normal people in working class areas maybe?
    The last few weeks have seen patients spontaneously bringing up Brexit in conversation. Mostly in the context of frustration with lots of eye rolling. I tend to move the conversation on, but these are not so much expressions of "Get Brexit Done", as "Bored of Brexit". I don't think the public is in the mood for an election, and don't think Brexit would dominate if we do.

    As I have pointed out before our two post war winter GEs (Feb 1950, Feb 1974) rank second and third highest turnout overall. Both were in the days without central heating and postal votes universally availible.
  • Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Also I know British people don't like to hear this but the NHS is kind of shite. There's really no need for all the waiting and stuff that happens in Britain - most developed countries are way better (but not America obviously).
    America is way better, depending who and where you are. We should notice that almost every new discovery or innovation comes from the United States, thanks to all those dollars sloshing round the system paying for research.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Happy New Year Toby!

    May your Rosh Hashanah be a happy one
    and your damages not be TOO crippling!
    Not sure admitting it is absurd helps Hammond's case that a statement is defamatory.
    Point of order: a statement can be both absurd - because untrue - and defamatory.

    If the statement were true then Mr Young would have a valid defence to a defamation claim.

    In any case he’s now withdrawn it though it was an interesting insight into how his mind works.

    I understood that the claim about hedge funds shorting the pound had been shown to be nonsense anyway. Is Hammond simply repeating that claim or does he have some other fresh information? He might also have some insight from his time as Chancellor, of course, since he would certainly have been given information about market movements, based on what the Treasury and financial regulators were seeing.
    It shows that some aspects of the Trump playbook won’t work in Britain. Britain’s much-criticised libel laws make it far harder to spray out wild allegations against other public figures.

    Perhaps having the burden of proof more firmly on the person making the allegation is no bad thing in an era where everyone is a publisher.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:

    No worries, Saj. The press will be investigating thoroughly. ‘Have you been groped by the PM? Ring this number now.’

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1178368722651815937
    That Boris is NSIT (or anywhere else for that matter) for women immune to his charms is a given. Only if it strays into Weinstein-style territory will it cause real harm, I suspect. And of that there is no evidence.

    Of more concern is his extraordinary - and wrong-headed - statement that there was no potential conflict of interest to declare re Ms Arcuri. If there was any sort of personal relationship - including merely friendship - of course he should have declared it so that it was all transparent when her company was applying for and getting taxpayers’ money.

    My guess is that everyone knew what was going on but no-one knew officially. Whether anything can be made of the distinction between the two is another matter. Who else Ms Arcuri was hanging around with may also be of interest.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This story seems thinly sourced. Still funny AF though...

    https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1178558153195233280
  • eristdoof said:

    On topic I agree that the Republicans have tied themselves tightly to Donald Trump. They’ll shift only if the polls make it impossible to do otherwise.

    What I find baffling about the Impeachment and senate conviction process, is that it seems to be completely about "Dems vs Reps", and nothing about "has the president broken the rules so badly that he has brought the position into disrepute".

    Everything else - The budget deficit, climate science, healthcare, judicial ability, etc, is judged through the partisan prism. It would be surprising if impeachment was the only thing judged on its merits.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Happy New Year Toby!

    May your Rosh Hashanah be a happy one
    and your damages not be TOO crippling!
    Not sure admitting it is absurd helps Hammond's case that a statement is defamatory.
    Point of order: a statement can be both absurd - because untrue - and defamatory.

    If the statement were true then Mr Young would have a valid defence to a defamation claim.

    In any case he’s now withdrawn it though it was an interesting insight into how his mind works.

    I understood that the claim about hedge funds shorting the pound had been shown to be nonsense anyway. Is Hammond simply repeating that claim or does he have some other fresh information? He might also have some insight from his time as Chancellor, of course, since he would certainly have been given information about market movements, based on what the Treasury and financial regulators were seeing.
    Hedge funds backing Boris is true, and Jacob Rees-Mogg even has his own hedge fund! Hedge funds shorting the pound (and vulnerable companies) is true. That is not to say speculators are driving the policy. That would be a step too far for most.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/25/crispin-odey-stopped-shorting-pound-now-investing-britain/
  • Scott_P said:

    No worries, Saj. The press will be investigating thoroughly. ‘Have you been groped by the PM? Ring this number now.’

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1178368722651815937
    Having said that, I’m sure some of the juiciest stories will be held back for the election campaign itself.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Cyclefree said:

    That Boris is NSIT (or anywhere else for that matter) for women immune to his charms is a given. Only if it strays into Weinstein-style territory will it cause real harm, I suspect. And of that there is no evidence.

    I think it depends if any (or how many) more women come forward. The other woman in the original story would be powerful for example.

    In any case, women journalists do seem to have taken offense at his blanket denial

    https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1178444116239228928
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,677
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone know when the SNP are likely to table a VONC?

    Labour expecting SNP to do their job for them yet again, Labour are such losers.
  • The Telegraph risks confusing its readers by reminding them it was Mrs Thatcher who took the lead on climate change and AGW.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/29/margaret-thatcher-biography-visionary-scientist-saw-climate/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_P said:

    No worries, Saj. The press will be investigating thoroughly. ‘Have you been groped by the PM? Ring this number now.’

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1178368722651815937
    What chance Ms Oakeshott might already have a few numbers of other mistresses of the PM in her phone book?
  • Mr. Tokyo, careful, or you'll be sacrificed for blasphemy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Trump has not laid any kind of cunning trap. Public support for impeachment grows every day.

    The only people who can fuck this up are dumb Democrats who want to get the impeachment process done quickly.
  • Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "'Absolutely shocking' - Denise Lewis on empty stands in Doha"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/athletics/49872232

    Denise should also have told us what the local time was. You should not expect people to turn up in droves at 1:30 am. All this done so that people in Western Europe and the US can watch it in "normal times".
    But soon China, Japan, South Asia will also demand these events are held at their suitable hours because they will have the money to do so. That will be fun. The 100m final took place at 04:20 am in China, 01:50 in India.
    The times are not set by the IAAF but are the ones set by Qatar based on weather conditions (the day is too hot) and what was offered byatar in their bid document.

    The race day finishes at 1:30 in the morning because Qatar offered that so that they won the competition to host the tournament.

    And the 2022 World Cup will be the same. Few people are going to fly 3+ hours each way (the current plan due to lack of hotels and arguments with neighbours) to watch a football match.
    The World Cup in Qatar is going to be one hell of a mess. There’s barely enough hotel rooms on the island for the completing teams and officials, and the political situation rules out using Bahrain and Dubai as spectator hubs. UK fans are either going to have to fly in and back out the same day (7 hours each way) or use somewhere like Istanbul as a hub. I doubt they’ll sell many tickets, stadia will be full of schoolkids and local families.

    Yes, it’s too hot at the moment during the day, 35-40°C, but more importantly I’m not sure people around the world even realised the event was on.
    I was briefly in Doha last week, the first I heard about the event was when I saw a lot of athletes in team clothing on my flight.

    It's a dreadful place to hold a world cup
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    The Telegraph risks confusing its readers by reminding them it was Mrs Thatcher who took the lead on climate change and AGW.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/29/margaret-thatcher-biography-visionary-scientist-saw-climate/

    Since which time governments of all colours have massively increased investment in renewable and cleaner energy.

    The major issues remain:

    1. That outsourcing the world’s manufacturing to China, India and the Far East merely displaces pollution, rather than reducing it.

    2. That most of the ‘activists’ in this field are proposing solutions that reduce economic output, rather than solutions that advance technology.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Also I know British people don't like to hear this but the NHS is kind of shite. There's really no need for all the waiting and stuff that happens in Britain - most developed countries are way better (but not America obviously).
    The waiting is deliberate, as a form of rationing, as indeed is the shortage of GPs and use of them in a gatekeeper role for secondary care. Ditto the shortage of hospital beds and intensive care.

    Waiting times are the way the government controls access to a service free at the point of use.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    BUPA like all medical insurance doesn't really do emergency stuff.

    The biggest effect of losing EHIC will be on older people with existing conditions. Travel Insurance for a reasonably fit fifty something is a minor nusiance, for a seventy something with diabetes, heart problems, previous cancer etc it will be a major hassle and expense. It will affect winter sun particularly.

    Hope all is well now, and happy new year!
    I wasn't insured. It was the French national health. I didn't even phone them before I arrived. It wasn't just the speed and the relaxed atmosphere it was also the cleanliness and the staff. It was like arriving at the members enclosure at Wimbledon. Everyone in crisp whites and (dare I say it) slim! It was not identifyable as an A&E. Also the speed they worked at. I left with five sheets of test results and from entering to leaving was about 45 mins. My daughter's recent visit to A&E was five hours. Maybe it wasn't typical but I i think it might have been.

    Happy New Year to you!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Day 1 of lectures today. 9am Public Law. 10am EU Law. Fitting.
  • Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    No worries, Saj. The press will be investigating thoroughly. ‘Have you been groped by the PM? Ring this number now.’

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1178368722651815937
    What chance Ms Oakeshott might already have a few numbers of other mistresses of the PM in her phone book?
    I understand Boris Johnson's rich and varied social life has been the subject of much investigation already.
  • Foxy said:

    access to a service free at the point of use.

    Doctor, it hurts when I do this
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    eristdoof said:

    On topic I agree that the Republicans have tied themselves tightly to Donald Trump. They’ll shift only if the polls make it impossible to do otherwise.

    What I find baffling about the Impeachment and senate conviction process, is that it seems to be completely about "Dems vs Reps", and nothing about "has the president broken the rules so badly that he has brought the position into disrepute".

    How could it be anything else since the Republican party became the party of Trump ?
    The OLC and the Justice Department have essentially become Trump’s personal lawyers in anything that touches him, rather than fulfilling their constitutional roles.

    The case for impeachment is a strong one compared to historic precedents, but America’s institutions are, perhaps irredeemably, corrupted.

  • Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Your last sentence is a total non sequitur.
  • Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Also I know British people don't like to hear this but the NHS is kind of shite. There's really no need for all the waiting and stuff that happens in Britain - most developed countries are way better (but not America obviously).
    It’s no coincidence the NHS is always compared to America.
  • Sandpit said:

    The Telegraph risks confusing its readers by reminding them it was Mrs Thatcher who took the lead on climate change and AGW.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/29/margaret-thatcher-biography-visionary-scientist-saw-climate/

    Since which time governments of all colours have massively increased investment in renewable and cleaner energy.

    The major issues remain:

    1. That outsourcing the world’s manufacturing to China, India and the Far East merely displaces pollution, rather than reducing it.

    2. That most of the ‘activists’ in this field are proposing solutions that reduce economic output, rather than solutions that advance technology.
    And also

    3. There is a serious question mark over some of the methodology used to produce the most cataclysmic forecasts and;

    4. There is a long history of climate change predictions being changed as time has gone on, which means it is difficult to justify permanent and deep-seated changes on the back of what might be temporary, or incorrect, conclusions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2019

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "'Absolutely shocking' - Denise Lewis on empty stands in Doha"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/athletics/49872232

    Denise should also have told us what the local time was. You should not expect people to turn up in droves at 1:30 am. All this done so that people in Western Europe and the US can watch it in "normal times".
    But soon China, Japan, South Asia will also demand these events are held at their suitable hours because they will have the money to do so. That will be fun. The 100m final took place at 04:20 am in China, 01:50 in India.
    The times are not set by the IAAF but are the ones set by Qatar based on weather conditions (the day is too hot) and what was offered byatar in their bid document.

    The race day finishes at 1:30 in the morning because Qatar offered that so that they won the competition to host the tournament.

    And the 2022 World Cup will be the same. Few people are going to fly 3+ hours each way (the current plan due to lack of hotels and arguments with neighbours) to watch a football match.
    The World Cup in Qatar is going to be one hell of a mess. There’s barely enough hotel rooms on the island for the completing teams and officials, and the political situation rules out using Bahrain and Dubai as spectator hubs. UK fans are either going to have to fly in and back out the same day (7 hours each way) or use somewhere like Istanbul as a hub. I doubt they’ll sell many tickets, stadia will be full of schoolkids and local families.

    Yes, it’s too hot at the moment during the day, 35-40°C, but more importantly I’m not sure people around the world even realised the event was on.
    I was briefly in Doha last week, the first I heard about the event was when I saw a lot of athletes in team clothing on my flight.

    It's a dreadful place to hold a world cup
    I wonder at what point the Qataris realise that the whole world will be watching them, only three years from now?

    Ironically, the World Cup is the best chance we have of a ceasefire in Yemen, as the scale of the event dictates that Qatar has to work with its neighbours in order to deliver well.

    Construction on stadia and hotels has already been scaled back as they can’t get enough contractors, and the original plans had Emirates, Etihad and GulfAir running A380 shuttle services across the region to move supporters around. If they want to resurrect these plans they’ll need to deal with the political problems first. Right now there are no direct flights from Qatar to UAE, Bahrain or Saudi. Only Oman is neutral in the conflict (having a long border with Yemen itself).
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:


    I expect Boris to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987, bigger than Cameron's in 2015 and bigger than Major's in 1992 (like Major's it would be a 4th consecutive Tory term for Boris).

    Trump's approval rating with Gallup is 43% at this stage, higher than the 41% for Obama at this stage of his presidency and far higher than the 33% Carter had at this stage of his presidency

    https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_campaign=tiles

    I cannot see BoJo picking up the seats in Labour heartlands like Thatcher did. 1987 it has to be remembered had first time incumbency for 1983 Tory gains. Yes, like 1987 the Tories might take a few safe Labour seats i.e. 1987: Walthamstow. But I think the driver is not as strong. Defence in 1983 & 1987 really were a strong card for the Tories. Brexit on the otherhand has shattered May's 2017 vote.
    The right to buy gained more than a few votes in council estates, which helped to eat into the Labour seats.
    The right to buy was THE issue in 1987 on the council estate I grew up on. It got a lot of votes over from Labour to Conservative. Labour supporters pointed out the houses could only be sold once and that it would come back to bight the Tories when people couldn't find homes where they grew up. They were right of course - but I don't think they thought it would take 30 years.
  • Good morning PB!

    What political shenanigans are scheduled for this week?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    Scott_P said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That Boris is NSIT (or anywhere else for that matter) for women immune to his charms is a given. Only if it strays into Weinstein-style territory will it cause real harm, I suspect. And of that there is no evidence.

    I think it depends if any (or how many) more women come forward. The other woman in the original story would be powerful for example.

    In any case, women journalists do seem to have taken offense at his blanket denial

    https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1178444116239228928

    A curious aspect of this is why it should be for No.10 to issue official denials on behalf of Johnson for his alleged behaviour as a private individual years ago.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Excellent article thanks.

    Knowing very little about it I am always grateful for pieces which are clear and concise about the current situation of American politics.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    No worries, Saj. The press will be investigating thoroughly. ‘Have you been groped by the PM? Ring this number now.’

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1178368722651815937
    What chance Ms Oakeshott might already have a few numbers of other mistresses of the PM in her phone book?
    I understand Boris Johnson's rich and varied social life has been the subject of much investigation already.
    Yet still another problem woman appeared last week, that we’d never heard of before (despite dozens of pictures of the two of them together).

    How many more are holding back for the election campaign? (Is what scares the sh!t out of most Conservatives right now).
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Also I know British people don't like to hear this but the NHS is kind of shite. There's really no need for all the waiting and stuff that happens in Britain - most developed countries are way better (but not America obviously).
    It’s no coincidence the NHS is always compared to America.
    In France you have to pay to see the Dr, that's why there are no queues. Many people who go to see the doctor don't need to. My late wife was a GP and said as much. Loads of time is wasted by people not turning up to appointments. Fine then for that too.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Also I know British people don't like to hear this but the NHS is kind of shite. There's really no need for all the waiting and stuff that happens in Britain - most developed countries are way better (but not America obviously).
    It’s no coincidence the NHS is always compared to America.
    In France you have to pay to see the Dr, that's why there are no queues. Many people who go to see the doctor don't need to. My late wife was a GP and said as much. Loads of time is wasted by people not turning up to appointments. Fine then for that too.
    What if people can’t afford to see the Dr? Genuine question.
  • Day 1 of lectures today. 9am Public Law. 10am EU Law. Fitting.

    All the best for your studies.

    Have you got your student railcard yet?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2019

    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Also I know British people don't like to hear this but the NHS is kind of shite. There's really no need for all the waiting and stuff that happens in Britain - most developed countries are way better (but not America obviously).
    America is way better, depending who and where you are. We should notice that almost every new discovery or innovation comes from the United States, thanks to all those dollars sloshing round the system paying for research.
    If you have good insurance it’s fantastic, but if you don’t it can be a nightmare. Try not being able to change your job because you have a sick child and insurance is tied to employment.

    Healthcare costs are responsible for 62% of bankruptcies in the US, while drug companies spend lavish marking budgets on direct-to-consumer TV ads for prescription medications and entertaining doctors at resort ‘conferences’.

    The public Medicare and Medicaid programmes are banned from negotiating prices with drug companies, they have to accept the prices they are given.

    Doctors also have to spend $250-300k per year on malpractice insurance, as everyone sues everyone else for millions whenever something goes wrong, which is why the doctor has to charge $300 or $500 an hour for his time.

    What Trump is trying to do it to reduce the supernormal profits from US customers, so that drug companies raise their prices in other markets to compensate.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 405
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:


    What chance Ms Oakeshott might already have a few numbers of other mistresses of the PM in her phone book?

    The more interesting question is why have British female journos been so slow in raising this skeleton in the Johnson closet.

    The creep sexually harassed a member of my family 15 years ago - and we did nothing about it because:
    i. The behaviour was pretty much standard among entitled shits like him back then, and it didn't affect anyone
    ii. He was only a Tory MP (not ours), so we got our revenge by campaigning - often successfully - against the Tories. Till that moment, we'd been politically inactive The power relationship, in effect, worked against him
    iii. We're not journos, and didn't really have access to ways of publicising the event

    But in the post MeToo world, there must be an entire army of similarly dischuffed, mildly seething, articulate women across England.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    Collaborating with our European enemies were they?
  • HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    Would explain his evasive answer to Marr yesterday. Dodgy Bozo consorting with the 'enemy'.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,677
    edited September 2019

    Roger said:

    OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building.

    Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me I was seen iwithin a couple of minutes by a receptionist. Then after a two minute wait I was taken to regstration and put on a bed.

    A porter took me to a private ward where a nurse asked me several questions. A doctor arrived shortly after the nurse left and gave me an ECG and several other tests. Within half an hour the tests were finished and I was on my way. (I'd thought I might have a DVT but they thought not).

    They gave me a number to call if if anything else occured.

    I have been with BUPA for years and I have never encountered anything as efficient or cool as this. No one asked for money or details beyond my address in France and England.

    Just a timely reminder of what we are going to lose when Boris gets Brexit done

    Also I know British people don't like to hear this but the NHS is kind of shite. There's really no need for all the waiting and stuff that happens in Britain - most developed countries are way better (but not America obviously).
    It’s no coincidence the NHS is always compared to America.
    In France you have to pay to see the Dr, that's why there are no queues. Many people who go to see the doctor don't need to. My late wife was a GP and said as much. Loads of time is wasted by people not turning up to appointments. Fine then for that too.
    What if people can’t afford to see the Dr? Genuine question.
    Not an issue in France and you get the money back if you cannot afford cover etc. Only people who can afford to pay anything and service is streets ahead of UK. As Foxy said it is only free in UK due to them making it unavailable all the time, unless you are pegging out it can take forever to get to see a consultant.
    PS: on a recent hospital visit , an eye clinic , in May it had 261 appointments which were no show. Is it any wonder our system is crap. If these morons had to pay for it this would never have been the case and the useless cretins would have phoned up to cancel. Like all these other free things, people do not appreciate them and abuse them royally.
    Given it takes months to get appointments that is a scandal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    Alistair said:

    Trump has not laid any kind of cunning trap. Public support for impeachment grows every day.

    The only people who can fuck this up are dumb Democrats who want to get the impeachment process done quickly.

    With the Republicans in control of the Senate there is no chance of it voting to convict Trump anyway even if the House which is controlled by the Democrats votes to impeach him
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    Would explain his evasive answer to Marr yesterday. Dodgy Bozo consorting with the 'enemy'.
    That really would be the ideal leave scenario from a rejoiners point of view.
  • HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    It's not completely impossible, but I'm highly sceptical. Viktor Orban is probably the cleverest politician operating in the EU at the moment (and quite possibly the most venal). They'd have to offer him something pretty spectacular for him to risk pissing off the rest of the EU to that extent and it's not at all obvious what that might be.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    It's not completely impossible, but I'm highly sceptical. Viktor Orban is probably the cleverest politician operating in the EU at the moment (and quite possibly the most venal). They'd have to offer him something pretty spectacular for him to risk pissing off the rest of the EU to that extent and it's not at all obvious what that might be.
    One of Johnson’s squeezes?
  • HYUFD said:

    Rumour on Good Morning Britain from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire that Boris and Cummings might have persuaded Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to veto further extension of Article 50

    It's not completely impossible, but I'm highly sceptical. Viktor Orban is probably the cleverest politician operating in the EU at the moment (and quite possibly the most venal). They'd have to offer him something pretty spectacular for him to risk pissing off the rest of the EU to that extent and it's not at all obvious what that might be.
    I thought there was a charge for any UK politician acting furtively against the UK? Treason? Misuse of public office?
This discussion has been closed.