Recently I was in the habit of floating a scenario whereby the Great Man contrary to all the Do or Die bluster ended up agreeing a 3 to 6 month extension for further talks to close a Deal.
There were no takers and I myself ended up not liking it. Instead I embraced the consensus that he was all about setting up a febrile 2019 GE to fight and win on a populist People v Quislings ticket.
Which is where I still am. I think this latest activity is about positioning for that election.
But on the off chance my original theory is proved correct can I in the spirit of PB etiquette come on here a cocking and a crowing about my prescience?
Or would that be just not on and lead to a loss of respect?
Any modification to suit the EU will be vetoed by Arlene. She now has [ on Johnson's "final" offer ] a veto on how trade in the island of Ireland will work. She won't give it up.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
19 years as a solicitor negotiating deals has given me a fair idea of what a final offer is. Generally, and I may be mistaken, but I find it means the offer that is final. Unless the person saying it is a bullshitter.
Recently I was in the habit of floating a scenario whereby the Great Man contrary to all the Do or Die bluster ended up agreeing a 3 to 6 month extension for further talks to close a Deal.
There were no takers and I myself ended up not liking it. Instead I embraced the consensus that he was all about setting up a febrile 2019 GE to fight and win on a populist People v Quislings ticket.
Which is where I still am. I think this latest activity is about positioning for that election.
But on the off chance my original theory is proved correct can I in the spirit of PB etiquette come on here a cocking and a crowing about my prescience?
Or would that be just not on and lead to a loss of respect?
I think, given the many and multiple predictions made on here, and no doubt the country over, that someone somewhere has to be right. It might as well be yours.
I'd probably take number 4. (Though the ruddy red faced imperalist gammon in me likes number 2)!
I like them all in this order UK rejoining Ireland (sounds more fun that way round) United Ireland Norway+ Backstop Staying in EU.
All preferable to trying and failing to square a circle. When we stop trying the impossible, think big, produce some statesmen and women it will be good to know there is such an excellent choice of solutions. Bring it on.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
So let's get this straight:
1. A deal = no deal 2. Final offer = a new offer after that.
What?
1. No a deal is not no deal. But being serious on no deal makes an acceptable deal more likely.
2. Final offer = a formal agreement hopefully based on this offer. Its an offer to get things talking and if tweaks are needed then they can be considered but if this offer gets rejected out of hand then that's it there will be no further offers.
You were telling us the other day that the conservative manifesto pledge of a deal ("to deliver the best possible deal") included no deal.
Final offer in human means we ain't budging.
There was no pledge to deliver a deal. There was a pledge to deliver the most orderly Brexit possible - if no deal is possible then so be it.
Johnson mentioned the bung in his speech. He talked about big "investments" in Northern Ireland. Arlene is more expensive than the others he has encountered.
I'd probably take number 4. (Though the ruddy red faced imperalist gammon in me likes number 2)!
I like them all in this order UK rejoining Ireland (sounds more fun that way round) United Ireland Norway+ Backstop Staying in EU.
All preferable to trying and failing to square a circle. When we stop trying the impossible, think big, produce some statesmen and women it will be good to know there is such an excellent choice of solutions. Bring it on.
I suppose the UK joining Ireland (rather than Ireland joining the UK) is a sixth option. The only problem with it, is that the Queen might not like it (but JC will be wetting himself) as I presume we WOULD become the REPUBLIC of Ireland.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
19 years as a solicitor negotiating deals has given me a fair idea of what a final offer is. Generally, and I may be mistaken, but I find it means the offer that is final. Unless the person saying it is a bullshitter.
If we go back through the history of the negotiations so far I would be surprised if both EU & UK have not given final offers at least five times each over various stages. I wouldnt be surprised if there are another five final offers to come over the next couple of years either.
The bullshittyest part of Brexit Bullshit is this idea that free trade agreements can be found in the legal forms section of WH Smith’s, just above the wills.
The bullshittyest part of Brexit Bullshit is this idea that free trade agreements can be found in the legal forms section of WH Smith’s, just above the wills.
Wasn't there a story a few months ago about how trade agreements often lift huge chunks of text from previous ones?
The bullshittyest part of Brexit Bullshit is this idea that free trade agreements can be found in the legal forms section of WH Smith’s, just above the wills.
why not ? Most SPAs are in essence the same except that lawyers end up dragging the whole thing out for fees.
The contribution of Ulster Protestants to the U.K. is undeniable - George Best alone is a contribution the like of which England had not managed. Nevertheless, however unpalatable it is to you, it’s undeniable that NI only exists as an entity through the financial and military intervention of London. It’s very existence was forced on the island of Ireland through the threat from Lloyd George of “terrible and immediate” war.
I don’t disagree that the GFA needed both communities, but without London imposing an artificial border carving out 2/3 of Ulster against the wishes of the then jurisdiction Ireland as a unit, and indeed against the wishes of the historic province of Ulster as a whole (Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan being excluded as they would have meant a nationalist majority if kept in) there would have been no need for a peace process in the first place. Ireland was a single jurisdiction broken up against its will. Leavers would do well to remember that when they complain of NI being “annexed” by the EU. In a historically just world it would still be part of the RoI - but we are where we are and compromises are needed. That’s what led to the GFA.
My understanding is that the bigger problem is not what was left out but what was kept in. The fear by those negotiating on the British side was that the 3 Protestant majority counties on their own would not form a viable province. Hence the addition of 3 majority Catholic counties on the understanding there would be an independent review and consultation to see if they should subsequently move to the South. The whole thing was a stitch up by Churchill and the British side.
Soon Nigel can start the Boris promised we would have left on October 31st soundloop.
Will be interesting to see how it plays, unlike with May he presumably wont have the ERG wing of the bluekip party cheering him on, not sure how much of a difference that makes.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
So let's get this straight:
1. A deal = no deal 2. Final offer = a new offer after that.
What?
1. No a deal is not no deal. But being serious on no deal makes an acceptable deal more likely.
2. Final offer = a formal agreement hopefully based on this offer. Its an offer to get things talking and if tweaks are needed then they can be considered but if this offer gets rejected out of hand then that's it there will be no further offers.
You were telling us the other day that the conservative manifesto pledge of a deal ("to deliver the best possible deal") included no deal.
Final offer in human means we ain't budging.
There was no pledge to deliver a deal. There was a pledge to deliver the most orderly Brexit possible - if no deal is possible then so be it.
"Theresa May's Conservatives will deliver the best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit."
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
19 years as a solicitor negotiating deals has given me a fair idea of what a final offer is. Generally, and I may be mistaken, but I find it means the offer that is final. Unless the person saying it is a bullshitter.
If we go back through the history of the negotiations so far I would be surprised if both EU & UK have not given final offers at least five times each over various stages. I wouldnt be surprised if there are another five final offers to come over the next couple of years either.
SO FAR...the EU's final offer (although I'm not sure they called it that) in the shape of the WA has been, um, a final offer. In months they haven't changed it, despite being on the verge of the verge of changing it at any minute and imminently, according to the Telegraph, Mail and all PB Brexiters.
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
There is going to be a massive bout of depression for many Remainers if Boris pulls off a deal. They were crushed by the Referendum result, but have spent over three years thinking that, despite the vote, they could still defeat Brexit. They have invested huge energy in it. Marches, legal challenges, Tory Party splitting asunder, Boris going down in flames - it was all coming together, even a week ago. And now a slow, sickening realisation - all that hope could about to be dashed.
Somehow I don't think Brexiteers making them a cup of tea and asking "You OK, hun?" is going to lift them.
And whilst remains an If, all this leaver optimism isn’t at all good for Boris I fear. Is there a leaver anywhere today who doesn’t call it a deal, calls just what it is barely 24 hours into a proposal, an initial offer? Is calling it a deal on message to make us think it is a deal?
there was a point where, like Boris until yesterday, when May didn’t have a plan in public, first chequers then the WA that came from it, life was easier for her because she wasn’t getting squeezed. It’s more difficult for Boris now, he’s going to find himself getting squeezed. Farage in particular is going to enjoy picking up Boris supporters.
But why don’t you describe that alternative scenario yourself Mark, you just posted what you think happens if Boris pulls off a deal, so what happens if he doesn’t from here?
Nothing that has been said today can be a surprise to anyone. The UK government would have known that a deal only acceptable to the DUP in Northern Ireland would not be acceptable to the EU27, and the EU27 would have known that they were only going to get what they did get from the UK government. The first part of the Blame Game game has been played. The next bit is where it gets interesting.
If she really wrote that it does not say much about the quality of debate. Pathetic!
bollocks and brexit - LDs kicked it off
I thought the "bollocks to brexit" was a slogan in circulation before the LD assimilated it? For instance the speakers wife had a bumper sticker on her car with that phrase and she supports Labour iirc...
Any modification to suit the EU will be vetoed by Arlene. She now has [ on Johnson's "final" offer ] a veto on how trade in the island of Ireland will work. She won't give it up.
Yep - and unless Lady Hermon is right, Johnson must have known that this would not be acceptable to those parties representing the majority of voters in Northern Ireland or to the EU27.
The contribution of Ulster Protestants to the U.K. is undeniable - George Best alone is a contribution the like of which England had not managed. Nevertheless, however unpalatable it is to you, it’s undeniable that NI only exists as an entity through the financial and military intervention of London. It’s very existence was forced on the island of Ireland through the threat from Lloyd George of “terrible and immediate” war.
I don’t disagree that the GFA needed both communities, but without London imposing an artificial border carving out 2/3 of Ulster against the wishes of the then jurisdiction Ireland as a unit, and indeed against the wishes of the historic province of Ulster as a whole (Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan being excluded as they would have meant a nationalist majority if kept in) there would have been no need for a peace process in the first place. Ireland was a single jurisdiction broken up against its will. Leavers would do well to remember that when they complain of NI being “annexed” by the EU. In a historically just world it would still be part of the RoI - but we are where we are and compromises are needed. That’s what led to the GFA.
My understanding is that the bigger problem is not what was left out but what was kept in. The fear by those negotiating on the British side was that the 3 Protestant majority counties on their own would not form a viable province. Hence the addition of 3 majority Catholic counties on the understanding there would be an independent review and consultation to see if they should subsequently move to the South. The whole thing was a stitch up by Churchill and the British side.
That may well be true - but the rhetoric before the Great War from Carson et al was all about “Ulster” (“For God and Ulster” etc) which implicitly suggests that 9 counties was initially on the cards for a large segment of the population anyway. It’s certainly left that perception which, after all, is 9/10 of the battle.
Johnson mentioned the bung in his speech. He talked about big "investments" in Northern Ireland. Arlene is more expensive than the others he has encountered.
1. Just heard Stephen Kelly the Northern Irish business leader saying this new deal is unequivocally worse than May's deal and would cost 100,000 jobs in Northern Ireland.
2. Against that I read on the previous thread that BJO a Labour stalwart thinks BJ was brilliant today and Corbyn has to accept his new deal.
3. Logic would tell you that if Johnson gets this deal through theTories will win the coming General election comfortably.
4. Does BJO consider Leaving more important than preventing a Tory majority and do other Labour Leavers feel the same?
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
There is going to be a massive bout of depression for many Remainers if Boris pulls off a deal. They were crushed by the Referendum result, but have spent over three years thinking that, despite the vote, they could still defeat Brexit. They have invested huge energy in it. Marches, legal challenges, Tory Party splitting asunder, Boris going down in flames - it was all coming together, even a week ago. And now a slow, sickening realisation - all that hope could about to be dashed.
Somehow I don't think Brexiteers making them a cup of tea and asking "You OK, hun?" is going to lift them.
Incorrect. Cast your eye back over posts of the vast majority of Remainers on PB and you will see that they all were rooting for (maybe in sorrow rather than anger, but wholly accepting) the WA which did indeed mean leaving the EU. Indeed some, ahem, lost money on the votes. Three times.
So your comment is wrong. What we continue to think is bonkers, however, is leaving without a deal and some of us are also aware of the dangers of leaving with the wrong deal (one which for example maintains a customs border in Northern Ireland).
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
There is going to be a massive bout of depression for many Remainers if Boris pulls off a deal. They were crushed by the Referendum result, but have spent over three years thinking that, despite the vote, they could still defeat Brexit. They have invested huge energy in it. Marches, legal challenges, Tory Party splitting asunder, Boris going down in flames - it was all coming together, even a week ago. And now a slow, sickening realisation - all that hope could about to be dashed.
Somehow I don't think Brexiteers making them a cup of tea and asking "You OK, hun?" is going to lift them.
And whilst remains an If, all this leaver optimism isn’t at all good for Boris I fear. Is there a leaver anywhere today who doesn’t call it a deal, calls just what it is barely 24 hours into a proposal, an initial offer? Is calling it a deal on message to make us think it is a deal?
there was a point where, like Boris until yesterday, when May didn’t have a plan in public, first chequers then the WA that came from it, life was easier for her because she wasn’t getting squeezed. It’s more difficult for Boris now, he’s going to find himself getting squeezed. Farage in particular is going to enjoy picking up Boris supporters.
But why don’t you describe that alternative scenario yourself Mark, you just posted what you think happens if Boris pulls off a deal, so what happens if he doesn’t from here?
+ 1. I agree Brexiteer crowing today is a pyric victory. This Brexit dialectic shifts every few days one way or the other. I should not take everything the Brexit supporting media publishes without a to of salt!
My opinion, put briefly, of several of the main Democratic candidates.
Bernie Sanders. Much love. Too old. Not well.
Joe Biden. Good fellow. Too vague. Too old.
Kamala Harris. Splendid, but maybe a little psychologically vulnerable. I can't say if that would a plus or minus with the voters.
Elizabeth Warren. She is a tough cookie and intelligent and so can learn from her mistakes---for instance her red Indian blunder. She wouldn't take any shit from Trump.
Elizabeth Warren out the race when details of all these affairs hit the news stands.
Trump could and did get away with it, but it will be so different for a lady politician. Ladies are treated differently to lads in this regard. She could be out of the race and very quickly now.
Yep, this is pretty much bang on. But it means that no deal is ever possible while the Tories are in government because no deal which the EU will agree to can ever be acceptable to the ERG.
My opinion, put briefly, of several of the main Democratic candidates.
Bernie Sanders. Much love. Too old. Not well.
Joe Biden. Good fellow. Too vague. Too old.
Kamala Harris. Splendid, but maybe a little psychologically vulnerable. I can't say if that would a plus or minus with the voters.
Elizabeth Warren. She is a tough cookie and intelligent and so can learn from her mistakes---for instance her red Indian blunder. She wouldn't take any shit from Trump.
Elizabeth Warren out the race when details of all these affairs hit the news stands.
Trump could and did get away with it, but it will be so different for a lady politician. Ladies are treated differently to lads in this regard. She could be out of the race and very quickly now.
My opinion, put briefly, of several of the main Democratic candidates.
Bernie Sanders. Much love. Too old. Not well.
Joe Biden. Good fellow. Too vague. Too old.
Kamala Harris. Splendid, but maybe a little psychologically vulnerable. I can't say if that would a plus or minus with the voters.
Elizabeth Warren. She is a tough cookie and intelligent and so can learn from her mistakes---for instance her red Indian blunder. She wouldn't take any shit from Trump.
Elizabeth Warren out the race when details of all these affairs hit the news stands.
Trump could and did get away with it, but it will be so different for a lady politician. Ladies are treated differently to lads in this regard. She could be out of the race and very quickly now.
What affairs? That 24yo ex-marine BS from Wohl? I think you overestimate their chances.
My opinion, put briefly, of several of the main Democratic candidates.
Bernie Sanders. Much love. Too old. Not well.
Joe Biden. Good fellow. Too vague. Too old.
Kamala Harris. Splendid, but maybe a little psychologically vulnerable. I can't say if that would a plus or minus with the voters.
Elizabeth Warren. She is a tough cookie and intelligent and so can learn from her mistakes---for instance her red Indian blunder. She wouldn't take any shit from Trump.
Elizabeth Warren out the race when details of all these affairs hit the news stands.
Trump could and did get away with it, but it will be so different for a lady politician. Ladies are treated differently to lads in this regard. She could be out of the race and very quickly now.
As the kids say: woke democrats won’t give a f.
This has been upgraded to "affairs" plural now has it?
it means that no deal is ever possible while the Tories are in government because no deal which the EU will agree to can ever be acceptable to the ERG.
It means no deal is possible while the Tory Party (sic) is in thrall to the ERG
If the Conservative and Unionist Party divested itself of the headbangers, a deal would be entirely possible.
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
There is going to be a massive bout of depression for many Remainers if Boris pulls off a deal. They were crushed by the Referendum result, but have spent over three years thinking that, despite the vote, they could still defeat Brexit. They have invested huge energy in it. Marches, legal challenges, Tory Party splitting asunder, Boris going down in flames - it was all coming together, even a week ago. And now a slow, sickening realisation - all that hope could about to be dashed.
Somehow I don't think Brexiteers making them a cup of tea and asking "You OK, hun?" is going to lift them.
Incorrect. Cast your eye back over posts of the vast majority of Remainers on PB and you will see that they all were rooting for (maybe in sorrow rather than anger, but wholly accepting) the WA which did indeed mean leaving the EU. Indeed some, ahem, lost money on the votes. Three times.
So your comment is wrong. What we continue to think is bonkers, however, is leaving without a deal and some of us are also aware of the dangers of leaving with the wrong deal (one which for example maintains a customs border in Northern Ireland).
Well, yes, well said. I happen to think leaving at all is bonkers, but I can live with it as a way forward if it comes with a deal. Without a deal is not just bonkers it is fucking insane. As to the latest manoeuvring , I still think this is all posturing by Cummings. He still wants us to leave without a deal, and will, of course, like so many headbanging leavers, blame the EU, and whip up more hatred for foreigners when they don't roll over to unreasonable and unachievable ideas form the government of Bozo Johnson. On the latter I hope I am wrong and that there is an achievable deal, stupid though the whole project is.
Brexiteer crowing today is a pyric victory. This Brexit dialectic shifts every few days one way or the other. I should not take everything the Brexit supporting media publishes without a to of salt!
BoZo has produced another turd (in a long line of such). The fanbois queuing up to praise how shiny the glitter is have been unconvincing
Yep, this is pretty much bang on. But it means that no deal is ever possible while the Tories are in government because no deal which the EU will agree to can ever be acceptable to the ERG.
The big issue is not that the deal gives Stormont the right of veto (which Charles Grant points out) and hence won't be accepted by the EU or Ireland, but that the DUP have accepted a border in the Irish Sea. From that a single customs territory of the island of Ireland is not such a big leap.
it means that no deal is ever possible while the Tories are in government because no deal which the EU will agree to can ever be acceptable to the ERG.
It means no deal is possible while the Tory Party (sic) is in thrall to the ERG
If the Conservative and Unionist Party divested itself of the headbangers, a deal would be entirely possible.
That would now cause them to lose 90% of their membership !!!
Well, yes, well said. I happen to think leaving at all is bonkers, but I can live with it as a way forward if it comes with a deal. Without a deal is not just bonkers it is fucking insane. snippage
You're probably right. So now, in order to stop no deal, we are going to have to rely on either BJ obeying the law, or the leader of the opposition laying down a VoNC.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
Will you post the outcome if the party overwhelmingly backs them to remain Jim?
No I didn’t think you would.
Two former Tory Chancellors say hi to you, by the way.
Two former Tory Chancellors were expelled for voting against a three-line-whip were they'd been told that'd be the punishment in advance of the vote.
Not because of racism.
oh come on. How many people voted against a three line whip without being deselected as MPs down the years? They were deselected as a misjudgment of the Team Boris, too excessive a penalty for merely being remainers fearing a no deal for UK. For being Conservative party members happy to take no deal off the table.
Meanwhile the total of deselections under Corbyn stands at zero. Despite all the froth and stirring put out by Cleverlys froth and stir it unit.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
Not really. It is quite amusing, if sad also. It is in fact the very epitome of the dolt Brexiter approach. Agree amongst themselves and deem said agreement a huge victory without ever engaging with their opposing number. Of course there is a mood of optimism amongst those for whom the world ends at Dover.
Quite depressing because as you astutely note, reality is likely to intrude shortly.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
You really are rather silly, though you are right, Boris-the-twat does scare the shit out of me, but not for the reasons you think. The man is a dangerous fool who should have never been allowed anywhere near power. The only reason he is there is because the LoTO is a fucking moron.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
I don't get this idea, especially prevalent on PB, that being vociferously critical, abusive even, of one's opponents means one is shit scared of them. Based on that presumption, Boris would be filling his pants almost 24/7, and many of the posters on here a vertitable fountain of faeces.
She was an old university friend of William Hague' s with Nicola Horlick in Chelsea and Fulham and Chuka Umunna in Cities of London and Westminster (both in the 20 local authorities with the highest Remain voted in the EU referendum and win by the LDs in the European Parliament elections) it seems the LDs are saving their star new candidates for central London, Remain central
The Good Lady Wifi met her when Horlick was trying to set up a film fund.
We'll leave it there.
Horlick's ability to manage the press is far in excess of her ability to make money for her clients.
She's a very nice lady (close friend of my uncle's) but not the "superwoman" she is made out to be.
Blimey @Charles is there anyone in the Establishment you or your family don't know?
I hope you realise how privileged you are compared to the vast mass of the population!
We are tolerated because of our usefulness to the old Establishment. We facilitate communication and help solve problems when required. That means we need to know people.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
19 years as a solicitor negotiating deals has given me a fair idea of what a final offer is. Generally, and I may be mistaken, but I find it means the offer that is final. Unless the person saying it is a bullshitter.
If we go back through the history of the negotiations so far I would be surprised if both EU & UK have not given final offers at least five times each over various stages. I wouldnt be surprised if there are another five final offers to come over the next couple of years either.
Fwiw, Henry Kissinger thought the best negotiators he encountered were the Chinese. The method was invariably the same. They first told you what they wanted. When you turned that down, they then skipped immediately to the minimum they would accept. They never budged from that, except in the very tiniest detail.
The advantage of this approach was that you knew quickly and precisely what their final position was and there was no point in arguing with that. You either accepted it, or walked a way. Saved a lot of time, and got both sides a lot of deals that might otherwise have been elusive because of uncertainty over where the bottom line stood.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
You can see he has got more moderates on board, for now he has both wings of the Tory party supporting a purported new deal, he has the DUP and the Labour rebels. The FBPE stop Brexit at all costs crowd are becoming more isolated and more out of step with the 'get on with Brexit' public opinion.
Not crowing, just an observation. Those wishing for the deal to fail are left looking rather extreme, whether they be Farage or arch Europhiles and even if the deal doesn't happen they have mistakenly shown their hand too early and look like complete idealogues unwilling to show any compromise or support anything broadly in the national interest.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
The Brexit supporting media might be in overdrive but i have met people who still buy the DT, DM, DE or The Sun who now don't agree with their political output. There has been a massive shift when you consider TM and the Tories were mid 40s in the polls where as BJ and the Tories are lucky to get 35%. A Deal is welcome compared to No Deal but Brexiteers will string things out for No Deal....
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
There is going to be a massive bout of depression for many Remainers if Boris pulls off a deal. They were crushed by the Referendum result, but have spent over three years thinking that, despite the vote, they could still defeat Brexit. They have invested huge energy in it. Marches, legal challenges, Tory Party splitting asunder, Boris going down in flames - it was all coming together, even a week ago. And now a slow, sickening realisation - all that hope could about to be dashed.
Somehow I don't think Brexiteers making them a cup of tea and asking "You OK, hun?" is going to lift them.
And whilst remains an If, all this leaver optimism isn’t at all good for Boris I fear. Is there a leaver anywhere today who doesn’t call it a deal, calls just what it is barely 24 hours into a proposal, an initial offer? Is calling it a deal on message to make us think it is a deal?
there was a point where, like Boris until yesterday, when May didn’t have a plan in public, first chequers then the WA that came from it, life was easier for her because she wasn’t getting squeezed. It’s more difficult for Boris now, he’s going to find himself getting squeezed. Farage in particular is going to enjoy picking up Boris supporters.
But why don’t you describe that alternative scenario yourself Mark, you just posted what you think happens if Boris pulls off a deal, so what happens if he doesn’t from here?
+ 1. I agree Brexiteer crowing today is a pyric victory. This Brexit dialectic shifts every few days one way or the other. I should not take everything the Brexit supporting media publishes without a to of salt!
But why are they doing it though? There is no deal, but they are calling it a deal. They say all the pressure is on Ireland but there’s no evidence of this. It’s not certain to get through the commons in current let alone compromised form, yet they are quick to say big majority for it. Farage has barely had time on it but already put holes in below waterline with, how can their be one arrangement for NI but not offer same to Scotland.
You can see he has got more moderates on board, for now he has both wings of the Tory party supporting a purported new deal, he has the DUP and the Labour rebels.
Look how shiny the glitter is! Ignore the smell...
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
19 years as a solicitor negotiating deals has given me a fair idea of what a final offer is. Generally, and I may be mistaken, but I find it means the offer that is final. Unless the person saying it is a bullshitter.
If we go back through the history of the negotiations so far I would be surprised if both EU & UK have not given final offers at least five times each over various stages. I wouldnt be surprised if there are another five final offers to come over the next couple of years either.
Fwiw, Henry Kissinger thought the best negotiators he encountered were the Chinese. The method was invariably the same. They first told you what they wanted. When you turned that down, they then skipped immediately to the minimum they would accept. They never budged from that, except in the very tiniest detail.
The advantage of this approach was that you knew quickly and precisely what their final position was and there was no point in arguing with that. You either accepted it, or walked a way. Saved a lot of time, and got both sides a lot of deals that might otherwise have been elusive because of uncertainty over where the bottom line stood.
The Chinese leaders are in a position to play a far longer game than western politicians subject to the whims of their electorates (not to mention the whims of MPs).
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
Not really. It is quite amusing, if sad also. It is in fact the very epitome of the dolt Brexiter approach. Agree amongst themselves and deem said agreement a huge victory without ever engaging with their opposing number. Of course there is a mood of optimism amongst those for whom the world ends at Dover.
Quite depressing because as you astutely note, reality is likely to intrude shortly.
Of course it will, but the battle isn't going to end on Oct 31st. Boris knows that. His plan is to get a new GE where he can pit himself as a man of the people against the establishment, and it's going well on that front.
I was listening to R5 earlier and the narrative was very much that Boris has offered a sincere deal (with compromises) to the EU, that he has garnered parliamentary support, and is waiting to see if the EU accept.
On the premise that hardly anyone takes any notice of the vicissitudes of day-to-day politics, an overarching narrative of Boris trying his best to get a deal and the establishment against him is pretty simple and powerful.
You can see he has got more moderates on board, for now he has both wings of the Tory party supporting a purported new deal, he has the DUP and the Labour rebels.
Look how shiny the glitter is! Ignore the smell...
Wow, it's really hurting the twitter troll. Shame stamping your feet in your mum's basement and demanding a 2nd ref has only got you a 50,000 post count on a politics forum
Yes Barnier won't give in easily, but it's a success that so many independent observers think he has the numbers in parliament, May never came close.
She was an old university friend of William Hague' s with Nicola Horlick in Chelsea and Fulham and Chuka Umunna in Cities of London and Westminster (both in the 20 local authorities with the highest Remain voted in the EU referendum and win by the LDs in the European Parliament elections) it seems the LDs are saving their star new candidates for central London, Remain central
The Good Lady Wifi met her when Horlick was trying to set up a film fund.
We'll leave it there.
Horlick's ability to manage the press is far in excess of her ability to make money for her clients.
She's a very nice lady (close friend of my uncle's) but not the "superwoman" she is made out to be.
Blimey @Charles is there anyone in the Establishment you or your family don't know?
I hope you realise how privileged you are compared to the vast mass of the population!
We are tolerated because of our usefulness to the old Establishment. We facilitate communication and help solve problems when required. That means we need to know people.
With one post my probably completely incorrect image of you as elegant city banker/lawyer type has morphed into a probably equally incorrect image as an English version of Winston Wolfe from pulp fiction.
Johnson mentioned the bung in his speech. He talked about big "investments" in Northern Ireland. Arlene is more expensive than the others he has encountered.
1. Just heard Stephen Kelly the Northern Irish business leader saying this new deal is unequivocally worse than May's deal and would cost 100,000 jobs in Northern Ireland.
2. Against that I read on the previous thread that BJO a Labour stalwart thinks BJ was brilliant today and Corbyn has to accept his new deal.
3. Logic would tell you that if Johnson gets this deal through theTories will win the coming General election comfortably.
4. Does BJO consider Leaving more important than preventing a Tory majority and do other Labour Leavers feel the same?
If Johnson wins this, a landslide waits. It also depends on how Swinson plays the game. So far she has been quite naïve. The SNP continues to impress. They must be secretly hoping Johnson's "deal" succeeds. It will open up a new argument for Scotland. Why should Scotland be treated differently to Northern Ireland ?
Isn’t the WA agreed by the council, and not be Parliament?
Parliament has a veto.
Right, it mentions the council has to seek their consent.
Edit: although I find it hard to believe they’d veto something the council and the U.K. agree on.
Why, our parliament was willing to vote down something our government, the council and the EU parliament agreed on? Parliaments like being taken seriously, as representative bodies that is their job. Ignore them at your peril.
Quite. And while the Boris fan club on here are pleasuring one another over this proposal it remains the fact that (1) it’s not guaranteed (although I concede it’s more likely now ) to get through our Parliament (2) IMHO it’s unlikely to get past the EU Council and (3) noises from the EU Parliament don’t sound encouraging either. As for “compromise” - this has been sold as a “final offer” - or are we not to believe that?
The final offer stuff has been very furiously rowed back from, and the PM has said we will consider counter proposals etc.
A final offer is as final as a binding offer is binding. Ie not (it’s a term of art).
If he starts talking about “best and final” that’s when you should take note
You can see he has got more moderates on board, for now he has both wings of the Tory party supporting a purported new deal, he has the DUP and the Labour rebels.
Look how shiny the glitter is! Ignore the smell...
Wow, it's really hurting the twitter troll. Shame stamping your feet in your mum's basement and demanding a 2nd ref has only got you a 50,000 post count on a politics forum
Yes Barnier won't give in easily, but it's a success that so many independent observers think he has the numbers in parliament, May never came close.
On the contrary, getting domestic agreement for something the EU would never accept is right out of the May playbook. Remember Chequers?
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
You can see he has got more moderates on board, for now he has both wings of the Tory party supporting a purported new deal, he has the DUP and the Labour rebels. The FBPE stop Brexit at all costs crowd are becoming more isolated and more out of step with the 'get on with Brexit' public opinion.
Not crowing, just an observation. Those wishing for the deal to fail are left looking rather extreme, whether they be Farage or arch Europhiles and even if the deal doesn't happen they have mistakenly shown their hand too early and look like complete idealogues unwilling to show any compromise or support anything broadly in the national interest.
I agree, and like I said, in the broad sense, Boris is positioned better in the public eye than the FBPE hardcore. He is coming across as a man trying to get things done, they look like blockers.
I'm not saying any of this is good, right or fair, I'm just arguing that Boris scares the Remainers because he is extra-politico... he's a celebrity; someone who is loved and hated more than the average politician. And that is discomfiting for his enemies.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
You can see he has got more moderates on board, for now he has both wings of the Tory party supporting a purported new deal, he has the DUP and the Labour rebels. The FBPE stop Brexit at all costs crowd are becoming more isolated and more out of step with the 'get on with Brexit' public opinion.
Not crowing, just an observation. Those wishing for the deal to fail are left looking rather extreme, whether they be Farage or arch Europhiles and even if the deal doesn't happen they have mistakenly shown their hand too early and look like complete idealogues unwilling to show any compromise or support anything broadly in the national interest.
But current events are a minor detail. The more interesting bit is when Johnson decides to walk away and how various parties react to that.
Johnson mentioned the bung in his speech. He talked about big "investments" in Northern Ireland. Arlene is more expensive than the others he has encountered.
1. Just heard Stephen Kelly the Northern Irish business leader saying this new deal is unequivocally worse than May's deal and would cost 100,000 jobs in Northern Ireland.
2. Against that I read on the previous thread that BJO a Labour stalwart thinks BJ was brilliant today and Corbyn has to accept his new deal.
3. Logic would tell you that if Johnson gets this deal through theTories will win the coming General election comfortably.
4. Does BJO consider Leaving more important than preventing a Tory majority and do other Labour Leavers feel the same?
If Johnson wins this, a landslide waits. It also depends on how Swinson plays the game. So far she has been quite naïve. The SNP continues to impress. They must be secretly hoping Johnson's "deal" succeeds. It will open up a new argument for Scotland. Why should Scotland be treated differently to Northern Ireland ?
Regarding the "arrangements" for the island of Ireland in Johnson's proposal: does the Stormont [ and therefore, the DUP ] have an effective veto ? If so, why should the RoI accept this after almost 100 years of independence.
They just have a veto over whether they participate or not.
it's a success that so many independent observers think he has the numbers in parliament, May never came close.
It's so shiny. It sparkles!!
Poor Scotty, the 50 year old child who never grew up. Twitter will make it all better petal!
Good luck to those like yourself who have nothing to contribute and want to watch Britain and the EU burn. The beginnings of a compromise must be hellish for them to watch.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
Not really. It is quite amusing, if sad also. It is in fact the very epitome of the dolt Brexiter approach. Agree amongst themselves and deem said agreement a huge victory without ever engaging with their opposing number. Of course there is a mood of optimism amongst those for whom the world ends at Dover.
Quite depressing because as you astutely note, reality is likely to intrude shortly.
Of course it will, but the battle isn't going to end on Oct 31st. Boris knows that. His plan is to get a new GE where he can pit himself as a man of the people against the establishment, and it's going well on that front.
I was listening to R5 earlier and the narrative was very much that Boris has offered a sincere deal (with compromises) to the EU, that he has garnered parliamentary support, and is waiting to see if the EU accept.
On the premise that hardly anyone takes any notice of the vicissitudes of day-to-day politics, an overarching narrative of Boris trying his best to get a deal and the establishment against him is pretty simple and powerful.
Yep, I agree. Johnson will get to lead us into No Deal - probably after he wins an election. Then what?
Johnson mentioned the bung in his speech. He talked about big "investments" in Northern Ireland. Arlene is more expensive than the others he has encountered.
1. Just heard Stephen Kelly the Northern Irish business leader saying this new deal is unequivocally worse than May's deal and would cost 100,000 jobs in Northern Ireland.
2. Against that I read on the previous thread that BJO a Labour stalwart thinks BJ was brilliant today and Corbyn has to accept his new deal.
3. Logic would tell you that if Johnson gets this deal through theTories will win the coming General election comfortably.
4. Does BJO consider Leaving more important than preventing a Tory majority and do other Labour Leavers feel the same?
100,000 job losses? That's 11% of people in employment.
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
There is going to be a massive bout of depression for many Remainers if Boris pulls off a deal. They were crushed by the Referendum result, but have spent over three years thinking that, despite the vote, they could still defeat Brexit. They have invested huge energy in it. Marches, legal challenges, Tory Party splitting asunder, Boris going down in flames - it was all coming together, even a week ago. And now a slow, sickening realisation - all that hope could about to be dashed.
Somehow I don't think Brexiteers making them a cup of tea and asking "You OK, hun?" is going to lift them.
And whilst remains an If, all this leaver optimism isn’t at all good for Boris I fear. Is there a leaver anywhere today who doesn’t call it a deal, calls just what it is barely 24 hours into a proposal, an initial offer? Is calling it a deal on message to make us think it is a deal?
there was a point where, like Boris until yesterday, when May didn’t have a plan in public, first chequers then the WA that came from it, life was easier for her because she wasn’t getting squeezed. It’s more difficult for Boris now, he’s going to find himself getting squeezed. Farage in particular is going to enjoy picking up Boris supporters.
But why don’t you describe that alternative scenario yourself Mark, you just posted what you think happens if Boris pulls off a deal, so what happens if he doesn’t from here?
+ 1. I agree Brexiteer crowing today is a pyric victory. This Brexit dialectic shifts every few days one way or the other. I should not take everything the Brexit supporting media publishes without a to of salt!
But why are they doing it though? There is no deal, but they are calling it a deal. They say all the pressure is on Ireland but there’s no evidence of this. It’s not certain to get through the commons in current let alone compromised form, yet they are quick to say big majority for it. Farage has barely had time on it but already put holes in below waterline with, how can their be one arrangement for NI but not offer same to Scotland.
Why are they so triumphant, it makes no sense
The Propoganda from the Brexiteer media is such any development is sold as a triumph for BJ and the Tories despite the fundamentals not shifting to enable any agreement to get through the Commons, the art of politics is to find an objection after consideration, not an outright rejection straight away. Things will move against BJ....
The contribution of Ulster Protestants to the U.K. is undeniable - George Best alone is a contribution the like of which England had not managed. Nevertheless, however unpalatable it is to you, it’s undeniable that NI only exists as an entity through the financial and military intervention of London. It’s very existence was forced on the island of Ireland through the threat from Lloyd George of “terrible and immediate” war.
I don’t disagree that the GFA needed both communities, but without London imposing an artificial border carving out 2/3 of Ulster against the wishes of the then jurisdiction Ireland as a unit, and indeed against the wishes of the historic province of Ulster as a whole (Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan being excluded as they would have meant a nationalist majority if kept in) there would have been no need for a peace process in the first place. Ireland was a single jurisdiction broken up against its will. Leavers would do well to remember that when they complain of NI being “annexed” by the EU. In a historically just world it would still be part of the RoI - but we are where we are and compromises are needed. That’s what led to the GFA.
My understanding is that the bigger problem is not what was left out but what was kept in. The fear by those negotiating on the British side was that the 3 Protestant majority counties on their own would not form a viable province. Hence the addition of 3 majority Catholic counties on the understanding there would be an independent review and consultation to see if they should subsequently move to the South. The whole thing was a stitch up by Churchill and the British side.
Weren't there county by county referenda and much to everyone's surprise Fermanagh and Tyrone voted for N Ireland, whereas Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal voted for the Republic. AIUI, Donegal was a bit of a surprise. Whether the votes were 'free and fair', and what the numbers were, I don't know.
Regarding the "arrangements" for the island of Ireland in Johnson's proposal: does the Stormont [ and therefore, the DUP ] have an effective veto ? If so, why should the RoI accept this after almost 100 years of independence.
They just have a veto over whether they participate or not.
The DUP have a veto over whether to continue alignment with the EU.
And that means a hard border goes up after 4 years if that happens . Why on earth should Ireland and the EU agree to that.
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
There is all that hope could about to be dashed.
Somehow I don't think Brexiteers making them a cup of tea and asking "You OK, hun?" is going to lift them.
And whilst remains an If, all this leaver optimism isn’t at all good for Boris I fear. Is there a leaver anywhere today who doesn’t call it a deal, calls just what it is barely 24 hours into a proposal, an initial offer? Is calling it a deal on message to make us think it is a deal?
there was a point where, like Boris until yesterday, when May didn’t have a plan in public, first chequers then the WA that came from it, life was easier for her because she wasn’t getting squeezed. It’s more difficult for Boris now, he’s going to find himself getting squeezed. Farage in particular is going to enjoy picking up Boris supporters.
But why don’t you describe that alternative scenario yourself Mark, you just posted what you think happens if Boris pulls off a deal, so what happens if he doesn’t from here?
+ 1. I agree Brexiteer crowing today is a pyric victory. This Brexit dialectic shifts every few days one way or the other. I should not take everything the Brexit supporting media publishes without a to of salt!
But why are they doing it though? There is no deal, but they are calling it a deal. They say all the pressure is on Ireland but there’s no evidence of this. It’s not certain to get through the commons in current let alone compromised form, yet they are quick to say big majority for it. Farage has barely had time on it but already put holes in below waterline with, how can their be one arrangement for NI but not offer same to Scotland.
Why are they so triumphant, it makes no sense
It's a Brady amendment redux. Being able to agree on something after not being able to agree on something is a good feeling, even if ultimately it is meaningless. The bottom line remains a simple one: there is no deal the EU can support that the ERG will support. For the ERG the only successful Brexit is one which sees the EU defeated. And a deal the EU agrees is by definition not one in which it has been defeated.
it's a success that so many independent observers think he has the numbers in parliament, May never came close.
It's so shiny. It sparkles!!
Poor Scotty, the 50 year old child who never grew up. Twitter will make it all better petal!
Good luck to those like yourself who have nothing to contribute and want to watch Britain and the EU burn. The beginnings of a compromise must be hellish for them to watch.
“Beginnings of a compromise” may be true but your side have been triumphantly describing it as a “deal” all day. That is rubbish that it is correct to call out.
If the aim of all this is to paint Boris in a favourable light, crow away, it may have worked, but this is not a deal. A deal is a long way off.
Comments
Recently I was in the habit of floating a scenario whereby the Great Man contrary to all the Do or Die bluster ended up agreeing a 3 to 6 month extension for further talks to close a Deal.
There were no takers and I myself ended up not liking it. Instead I embraced the consensus that he was all about setting up a febrile 2019 GE to fight and win on a populist People v Quislings ticket.
Which is where I still am. I think this latest activity is about positioning for that election.
But on the off chance my original theory is proved correct can I in the spirit of PB etiquette come on here a cocking and a crowing about my prescience?
Or would that be just not on and lead to a loss of respect?
UK rejoining Ireland (sounds more fun that way round)
United Ireland
Norway+
Backstop
Staying in EU.
All preferable to trying and failing to square a circle. When we stop trying the impossible, think big, produce some statesmen and women it will be good to know there is such an excellent choice of solutions. Bring it on.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1179759398744477696?s=20
The only problem with it, is that the Queen might not like it (but JC will be wetting himself) as I presume we WOULD become the REPUBLIC of Ireland.
One day an app will do your job.
https://conservatives.com/manifesto
Phil you seem a nice enough bloke and committed to boot but you are seriously losing it over this "no deal" and "final offer" thing.
there was a point where, like Boris until yesterday, when May didn’t have a plan in public, first chequers then the WA that came from it, life was easier for her because she wasn’t getting squeezed. It’s more difficult for Boris now, he’s going to find himself getting squeezed. Farage in particular is going to enjoy picking up Boris supporters.
But why don’t you describe that alternative scenario yourself Mark, you just posted what you think happens if Boris pulls off a deal, so what happens if he doesn’t from here?
Interesting story, especially for smugglers.
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1179769727897485316?s=20
Seriously?
2. Against that I read on the previous thread that BJO a Labour stalwart thinks BJ was brilliant today and Corbyn has to accept his new deal.
3. Logic would tell you that if Johnson gets this deal through theTories will win the coming General election comfortably.
4. Does BJO consider Leaving more important than preventing a Tory majority and do other Labour Leavers feel the same?
So your comment is wrong. What we continue to think is bonkers, however, is leaving without a deal and some of us are also aware of the dangers of leaving with the wrong deal (one which for example maintains a customs border in Northern Ireland).
Nor even removed from the kangeroo....
Trump could and did get away with it, but it will be so different for a lady politician. Ladies are treated differently to lads in this regard. She could be out of the race and very quickly now.
If the Conservative and Unionist Party divested itself of the headbangers, a deal would be entirely possible.
Oh wait.......
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
Meanwhile the total of deselections under Corbyn stands at zero. Despite all the froth and stirring put out by Cleverlys froth and stir it unit.
What have I said there that is wrong?
Great job, guys.....
Quite depressing because as you astutely note, reality is likely to intrude shortly.
The advantage of this approach was that you knew quickly and precisely what their final position was and there was no point in arguing with that. You either accepted it, or walked a way. Saved a lot of time, and got both sides a lot of deals that might otherwise have been elusive because of uncertainty over where the bottom line stood.
Not crowing, just an observation. Those wishing for the deal to fail are left looking rather extreme, whether they be Farage or arch Europhiles and even if the deal doesn't happen they have mistakenly shown their hand too early and look like complete idealogues unwilling to show any compromise or support anything broadly in the national interest.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1179788667201736704
Why are they so triumphant, it makes no sense
She really has a cheek to moan , she expects to wield a veto because of her and her parties sense of entitlement.
Effectively holding the other parties hostage to the whims of the DUP.
I was listening to R5 earlier and the narrative was very much that Boris has offered a sincere deal (with compromises) to the EU, that he has garnered parliamentary support, and is waiting to see if the EU accept.
On the premise that hardly anyone takes any notice of the vicissitudes of day-to-day politics, an overarching narrative of Boris trying his best to get a deal and the establishment against him is pretty simple and powerful.
Wow, it's really hurting the twitter troll. Shame stamping your feet in your mum's basement and demanding a 2nd ref has only got you a 50,000 post count on a politics forum
Yes Barnier won't give in easily, but it's a success that so many independent observers think he has the numbers in parliament, May never came close.
If he starts talking about “best and final” that’s when you should take note
I'm not saying any of this is good, right or fair, I'm just arguing that Boris scares the Remainers because he is extra-politico... he's a celebrity; someone who is loved and hated more than the average politician. And that is discomfiting for his enemies.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/02/16/boundary-conditions-how-brexit-might-be-helping-to-lay-the-ground-for-the-snp/
Good luck to those like yourself who have nothing to contribute and want to watch Britain and the EU burn. The beginnings of a compromise must be hellish for them to watch.
Thanks this from Curtice debunks the Johnson winning Air war thesis
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/author/johncurtice/
Whether the votes were 'free and fair', and what the numbers were, I don't know.
And that means a hard border goes up after 4 years if that happens . Why on earth should Ireland and the EU agree to that.
If the aim of all this is to paint Boris in a favourable light, crow away, it may have worked, but this is not a deal. A deal is a long way off.