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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less useful next time

A story that’s got hidden in all the Brexit news was this on SkyNews about Heidi Allen, the South Cambridgeshire ex-CON MP whoo this week joined the LDs.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,953
    Which seats are the greens going to be allowed in this deal
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Your guess is as good as mine, Mr Pulpstar. It is probably easier to spot the Independent MPs who are remainers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    East Devon looks interesting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,953
    No Green in Beaconsfield is surprising !
    Corbyn will love that
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    If true it will surely cause an reaction on the opposite side
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,208
    edited October 2019
    I'd be fascinated to hear how this is going to benefit Plaid Cymru.

    Which seats do you envisage Plaid Cymru taking because of this deal?

    The "Welsh" LibDems are the most anglocentric of the Welsh parties. Their voters are hardly likely to vote PC.

    PC's target seats (e.g. Ynys Mon, Llanelli) are all Leave. And there are hardly any LibDems there.

    PC long harboured hopes of breaking into Labour's seats in the Valleys. This pact is hardly going to help them do that.

    My prediction is that PC will lose 2 seats (Ceredigion and Leave-voting Carmarthen East & Dinefwr) and Adam Price will be the first party leader to resign after the election..

    This is a really ill thought-out pact from Plaid Cymru's perspective. The SNP would never stand aside for a Unionist party, and nor should Plaid Cymru.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    Which seats are the greens going to be allowed in this deal

    Bristol West ? I think the Labour candidate is a strong Remainer.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,695

    If true it will surely cause an reaction on the opposite side

    Bring it on, I say. Nothing like a Brexit Party/ Tory alliance to drive remainer Tories into the arms of the LDs.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,759
    Heidi ‘failing to implement the will of the people would turn the UK into a Banana Republic’ Allen?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245
    'A forerunner of this was at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-Election...it worked.'

    There is no evidence that it had the slightest effect. Indeed, most Plaid voters (there are hardly any Greens in B&R) seem to have stayed at home. Labour voters switching to the Liberal Democrats was the killer punch.

    That's not to say it couldn't work elsewhere, of course, but how many people really will pay attention to this? I'm guessing it will be a very few, in a very small number of constituencies.

    Admittedly in a close election that might be important.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,474

    If true it will surely cause an reaction on the opposite side

    Bring it on, I say. Nothing like a Brexit Party/ Tory alliance to drive remainer Tories into the arms of the LDs.
    And even sane Leavers who appreciate what No Deal would mean.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245

    East Devon looks interesting.

    It does. And the politics there can be quite funky and all.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    East Devon looks interesting.

    Not sure it does, Mr Meeks. The lady who stood there last time is not a sitting MP, and has no links with any other Independents. She has nothing to bargain with. Moreover, she used to be very iffy on the question of Brexit - though apparently the penny has dropped and she now sees that remaining in the EU is a good idea.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245

    I'd be fascinated to hear how this is going to benefit Plaid Cymru.

    Which seats do you envisage Plaid Cymru taking because of this deal?

    The "Welsh" LibDems are the most anglocentric of the Welsh parties. Their voters are hardly likely to vote PC.

    PC's target seats (e.g. Ynys Mon, Llanelli) are all Leave. And there are hardly any LibDems there.

    PC long harboured hopes of breaking into Labour's seats in the Valleys. This pact is hardly going to help them do that.

    My prediction is that PC will lose 2 seats (Ceredigion and Leave-voting Carmarthen East & Dinefwr) and Adam Price will be the first party leader to resign after the election..

    This is a really ill thought-out pact from Plaid Cymru's perspective. The SNP would never stand aside for a Unionist party, and nor should Plaid Cymru.

    Ceredigion I agree. But who do you think they're going to lose CE&D to?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,392
    Pulpstar said:

    Which seats are the greens going to be allowed in this deal

    A few possibilities that have been mentioned...
    • Isle of Wight
    • Bristol West
    • Sheffield Central. Allows the Lib Dems to focus on Sheffield Hallam and benefits from the popularity of Magic Magid.
    • Camborne & Redruth and the Plymouth seats. Again, allows the Lib Dems to focus on their targets in the SW and gives the Greens a chance of developing a local vote.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see the Greens offered a London seat, too. Islington North would be amusing.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 2,782
    Devon East is like many many consituencies - in that it will all depend on whether the Brexit Party stand or whether a pact is agreed with the Tories.

    If a pact, then Tories win most seats in the GE but with no majority and lead a minority government with Brexit Party (if they get seats) and DUP confidence and supply.

    If no pact, then Labour win most seats but with no majority and lead a minority government with Lib Dems and SNP (and maybe Greens and PC) C&S
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,392
    ydoethur said:

    'A forerunner of this was at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-Election...it worked.'

    There is no evidence that it had the slightest effect. Indeed, most Plaid voters (there are hardly any Greens in B&R) seem to have stayed at home. Labour voters switching to the Liberal Democrats was the killer punch.

    That's not to say it couldn't work elsewhere, of course, but how many people really will pay attention to this? I'm guessing it will be a very few, in a very small number of constituencies.

    Admittedly in a close election that might be important.

    And if you're a Lib Dem, all elections are close.

    I think Oxford West & Abingdon at GE2017 is a more instructive comparison than Brecon & Radnorshire, tbh.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,648
    Clever move by the fragrant Ms Allen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245

    Pulpstar said:

    Which seats are the greens going to be allowed in this deal

    A few possibilities that have been mentioned...
    • Isle of Wight
    • Bristol West
    • Sheffield Central. Allows the Lib Dems to focus on Sheffield Hallam and benefits from the popularity of Magic Magid.
    • Camborne & Redruth and the Plymouth seats. Again, allows the Lib Dems to focus on their targets in the SW and gives the Greens a chance of developing a local vote.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see the Greens offered a London seat, too. Islington North would be amusing.
    The Liberal Democrats held the predecessor seat to Camborne and Redruth less than ten years ago, and might have been holding it still had Goldsworthy not been one of the more egregious expenses cheats. I cannot see them giving the Greens a clear run here, no matter how far behind they are right now.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,700
    How much difference will this really make?

    PC obviously don't stand in England anyway so in England we're effectively looking at the Greens not standing in approx 50 seats and the LDs not standing in maybe 10.

    Green vote isn't big enough for its absence to make a difference in many seats.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT the Telegraph might be giving up on Brexit. It has three stories about Coleen vs Rebekah.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,726

    OT the Telegraph might be giving up on Brexit. It has three stories about Coleen vs Rebekah.

    They’re only human
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,208
    ydoethur said:

    I'd be fascinated to hear how this is going to benefit Plaid Cymru.

    Which seats do you envisage Plaid Cymru taking because of this deal?

    The "Welsh" LibDems are the most anglocentric of the Welsh parties. Their voters are hardly likely to vote PC.

    PC's target seats (e.g. Ynys Mon, Llanelli) are all Leave. And there are hardly any LibDems there.

    PC long harboured hopes of breaking into Labour's seats in the Valleys. This pact is hardly going to help them do that.

    My prediction is that PC will lose 2 seats (Ceredigion and Leave-voting Carmarthen East & Dinefwr) and Adam Price will be the first party leader to resign after the election..

    This is a really ill thought-out pact from Plaid Cymru's perspective. The SNP would never stand aside for a Unionist party, and nor should Plaid Cymru.

    Ceredigion I agree. But who do you think they're going to lose CE&D to?
    I think the seat will be very, very tight.

    Let's say 1/3 Plaid Cymru's vote is Leave, 2/3 Remain (realistic IMO).

    Assume most PC Leavers don't vote because of this "Remainer Alliance".

    Plaid Cymru will then end up with circa 12k in CE&D.

    I think the Tory vote will be close to 12k in CE&D. The Labour vote in 2017 was already 12k, but I assume that will fall a bit.
  • OT the Telegraph might be giving up on Brexit. It has three stories about Coleen vs Rebekah.

    Every heard of clickbait....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245

    ydoethur said:

    'A forerunner of this was at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-Election...it worked.'

    There is no evidence that it had the slightest effect. Indeed, most Plaid voters (there are hardly any Greens in B&R) seem to have stayed at home. Labour voters switching to the Liberal Democrats was the killer punch.

    That's not to say it couldn't work elsewhere, of course, but how many people really will pay attention to this? I'm guessing it will be a very few, in a very small number of constituencies.

    Admittedly in a close election that might be important.

    And if you're a Lib Dem, all elections are close.

    I think Oxford West & Abingdon at GE2017 is a more instructive comparison than Brecon & Radnorshire, tbh.
    Well, it worked for Cynog Dafis in 1992, when he stood on a joint PC/Green ticket and upset the Liberal Democrats to win Ceredigion and Pembroke North from fourth place. But I think it's fair to say it wasn't the decisive factor given the massive churn of votes in the area.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    How will this affect the broadcast rules for things like party election broadcasts?

    Will it be Swinson only in any leader debates to represent the Remain Alliance?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245

    ydoethur said:

    I'd be fascinated to hear how this is going to benefit Plaid Cymru.

    Which seats do you envisage Plaid Cymru taking because of this deal?

    The "Welsh" LibDems are the most anglocentric of the Welsh parties. Their voters are hardly likely to vote PC.

    PC's target seats (e.g. Ynys Mon, Llanelli) are all Leave. And there are hardly any LibDems there.

    PC long harboured hopes of breaking into Labour's seats in the Valleys. This pact is hardly going to help them do that.

    My prediction is that PC will lose 2 seats (Ceredigion and Leave-voting Carmarthen East & Dinefwr) and Adam Price will be the first party leader to resign after the election..

    This is a really ill thought-out pact from Plaid Cymru's perspective. The SNP would never stand aside for a Unionist party, and nor should Plaid Cymru.

    Ceredigion I agree. But who do you think they're going to lose CE&D to?
    I think the seat will be very, very tight.

    Let's say 1/3 Plaid Cymru's vote is Leave, 2/3 Remain (realistic IMO).

    Assume most PC Leavers don't vote because of this "Remainer Alliance".

    Plaid Cymru will then end up with circa 12k in CE&D.

    I think the Tory vote will be close to 12k in CE&D. The Labour vote in 2017 was already 12k, but I assume that will fall a bit.
    That assumes an actual rise in the Tory support, so would have to involve some switching from Plaid. Even allowing for some Plaid supporters being pretty right wing, that strikes me as a bold assumption.

    I agree it will be a tight marginal, very possibly a three way marginal, but I expect Plaid to hold.

    What might damage them of course is that ongoing police investigation into that certifiable lunatic er, the esteemed former Chief Executive Mark James. Having ducked the chance to get rid of him over previous legal issues, Plaid in Carmarthenshire definitely own the total car crash he has turned into. But how much impact that will have on Jonathan Edwards, who after all has been a longstanding and pretty trenchant critic of James, is difficult to judge.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mike - typo line 2 - whoo.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,208
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I'd be fascinated to hear how this is going to benefit Plaid Cymru.

    Which seats do you envisage Plaid Cymru taking because of this deal?

    The "Welsh" LibDems are the most anglocentric of the Welsh parties. Their voters are hardly likely to vote PC.

    PC's target seats (e.g. Ynys Mon, Llanelli) are all Leave. And there are hardly any LibDems there.

    PC long harboured hopes of breaking into Labour's seats in the Valleys. This pact is hardly going to help them do that.

    My prediction is that PC will lose 2 seats (Ceredigion and Leave-voting Carmarthen East & Dinefwr) and Adam Price will be the first party leader to resign after the election..

    This is a really ill thought-out pact from Plaid Cymru's perspective. The SNP would never stand aside for a Unionist party, and nor should Plaid Cymru.

    Ceredigion I agree. But who do you think they're going to lose CE&D to?
    I think the seat will be very, very tight.

    Let's say 1/3 Plaid Cymru's vote is Leave, 2/3 Remain (realistic IMO).

    Assume most PC Leavers don't vote because of this "Remainer Alliance".

    Plaid Cymru will then end up with circa 12k in CE&D.

    I think the Tory vote will be close to 12k in CE&D. The Labour vote in 2017 was already 12k, but I assume that will fall a bit.
    That assumes an actual rise in the Tory support, so would have to involve some switching from Plaid. Even allowing for some Plaid supporters being pretty right wing, that strikes me as a bold assumption.

    I agree it will be a tight marginal, very possibly a three way marginal, but I expect Plaid to hold.

    What might damage them of course is that ongoing police investigation into that certifiable lunatic er, the esteemed former Chief Executive Mark James. Having ducked the chance to get rid of him over previous legal issues, Plaid in Carmarthenshire definitely own the total car crash he has turned into. But how much impact that will have on Jonathan Edwards, who after all has been a longstanding and pretty trenchant critic of James, is difficult to judge.
    I am assuming most Plaid Cymru Leavers won't vote (I think a fair assumption).

    What will Labour leavers do? Modest switching to the Tories would be enough to see the Tories through.

    Nonetheless, my point is that this pact seems to offer nothing for Plaid Cymru.

    I can see no seat that PC are MORE likely to take because of it.

    However, I can see seats where PC will lose vote share.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,908
    Evening all :)

    Yes, an interesting move brokered by Heidi and perhaps showing what a strong recruit she is to the LDs.

    Back to today's musings and Johnson once again plays to his talent of saying what he thinks the audience in front of him (or behind him when he is at the Despatch Box) wants to hear.

    He is thus able to bamboozle the One Nation group by telling them the Conservatives will never be the Party of a No Deal Brexit (no laughing in the cheap seats, please) while playing Mr Tough to the ERG brigade.

    His fence sitting resembles Corbyn's though he is much more blatant about having one cheek on each side of the fence.

    The crunch for the One Nation Tories will come when Boris flounces out of the EU Council without a Deal - will they rally to his patriotic side or show some cojones by disavowing him publicly and splitting?

    I'm also disappointed the drama and theatre of Champions Day at Ascot is going to be upstaged by events at Westminster. I can well imagine Boris coming back breathless from Brussels excoriating the Europeans, wrapping himself in the Union Jack and claiming only he "speaks for Britain".

    Hopefully, the opposition parties will let the silly windbag blow himself out and start challenging him on when he is writing the letter asking for an extension and does he need to borrow a pen to do so?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,468

    How will this affect the broadcast rules for things like party election broadcasts?

    Will it be Swinson only in any leader debates to represent the Remain Alliance?

    QT panel tomorrow a disgrace four leavers and a neutral including the jhb who has published a lawyers home address who now suffers death threats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245
    edited October 2019

    ydoethur said:

    I think the Tory vote will be close to 12k in CE&D. The Labour vote in 2017 was already 12k, but I assume that will fall a bit.

    That assumes an actual rise in the Tory support, so would have to involve some switching from Plaid. Even allowing for some Plaid supporters being pretty right wing, that strikes me as a bold assumption.

    I agree it will be a tight marginal, very possibly a three way marginal, but I expect Plaid to hold.
    I am assuming most Plaid Cymru Leavers won't vote (I think a fair assumption).

    What will Labour leavers do? Modest switching to the Tories would be enough to see the Tories through.

    Nonetheless, my point is that this pact seems to offer nothing for Plaid Cymru.

    I can see no seat that PC are MORE likely to take because of it.

    However, I can see seats where PC will lose vote share.
    One thing I am totally confident Labour Leavers will not do in Wales is switch to the Tories. Surprisingly, the beneficiaries of disillusionment with Labour among leave voters seem to be the Liberal Democrats. That incidentally is the real lesson to take from Brecon and Radnor and particularly the voting patterns in Ystradgynlais.

    We have been told over and over that Labour voters are not vitally interested in the EU. I wonder if we're all missing a very obvious lesson from that - if Labour leave voters get disillusioned with Labour, it's the left wing they're going to turn to regardless of the official party line on Brexit.

    Edit - yes, I fully agree with your main point and have said it myself before. The only realistic Plaid target is Ynys Mon and that's (a) Leave and (b) hasn't voted Liberal in many decades.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,804
    Bet Rebekah Vardy is a Leaver.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245
    kinabalu said:

    Bet Rebekah Vardy is a Leaver.

    Surely she was the sole Remainer in the instagram account?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    kinabalu said:

    Bet Rebekah Vardy is a Leaver.

    I think she’s in favour of leaving with a deal.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,392
    kinabalu said:

    Bet Rebekah Vardy is a Leaver.

    Chat sh*t, get no deal?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,040
    DougSeal said:

    OT the Telegraph might be giving up on Brexit. It has three stories about Coleen vs Rebekah.

    They’re only human
    Y'know how we love the cut and thrust of political argument, occasional constitutional crises, and the potential parliamentary theatre next week especially? Well we're not normal. Or at least we're unusual.

    Much more common than us are people who see the Wagnum PI story, with its blend of celebrity, shade, internet detectivism, infinite retweetability and tabloid hoo-hah, as a proper top story.

    Pick someone in the country at random and they are 20/1 a political nerd and maybe only 3/1 a messy bitch who loves drama.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,179
    The main impact of this is the LDs and possibly Plaid might pick up a few more seats at the expense of the Tories and Labour.

    It makes little difference to the Boris v Corbyn battle as the LDs refuse to back either as PM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,179

    I'd be fascinated to hear how this is going to benefit Plaid Cymru.

    Which seats do you envisage Plaid Cymru taking because of this deal?

    The "Welsh" LibDems are the most anglocentric of the Welsh parties. Their voters are hardly likely to vote PC.

    PC's target seats (e.g. Ynys Mon, Llanelli) are all Leave. And there are hardly any LibDems there.

    PC long harboured hopes of breaking into Labour's seats in the Valleys. This pact is hardly going to help them do that.

    My prediction is that PC will lose 2 seats (Ceredigion and Leave-voting Carmarthen East & Dinefwr) and Adam Price will be the first party leader to resign after the election..

    This is a really ill thought-out pact from Plaid Cymru's perspective. The SNP would never stand aside for a Unionist party, and nor should Plaid Cymru.

    Adam Price could well be next First Minister of Wales with LD and Tory support
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2019
    Mike Smithson detecting a betting opportunity shocker !! .... I suppose that makes him

    OGHatha Christie ....

    My cape .... thank you ...
  • Scott_P said:
    An extension only if there's an election?

    What will cowardly Corbyn do?
  • isamisam Posts: 32,759
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    Is it stupid? It’s what they want, so why not?

    Had Remain actually legitimately won, rather than us remaining because politicians won’t let us leave despite leave winning, it surely would have been acceptable for UKIP to have a policy of leaving if they won a majority.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,931
    edited October 2019
    I must say I’m sceptical about these sorts of pacts.

    There’s plenty of evidence to show the voters don’t like being gamed. I suspect it’ll be far less significant than people think, even if it’s pulled off in all of those 70+ seats.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,759
    edited October 2019

    I must say I’m sceptical about these sorts of pacts.

    There’s plenty of evidence to show the voters don’t like being gamed. I suspect it’ll be far less significant than people think, even if it’s pulled off in all of those 70+ seats.

    These pacts are incredibly popular with political over thinkers. People on here have been boasting of swapping votes with people in other constituencies for negligible tactical advantage a long time.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Scott_P said:
    An extension only if there's an election?

    What will cowardly Corbyn do?
    The French always say this but buckle in the end.
  • Scott_P said:
    Does that mean they will be campaigning for the lib dems in a GE?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think the Tory vote will be close to 12k in CE&D. The Labour vote in 2017 was already 12k, but I assume that will fall a bit.

    That assumes an actual rise in the Tory support, so would have to involve some switching from Plaid. Even allowing for some Plaid supporters being pretty right wing, that strikes me as a bold assumption.

    I agree it will be a tight marginal, very possibly a three way marginal, but I expect Plaid to hold.
    I am assuming most Plaid Cymru Leavers won't vote (I think a fair assumption).

    What will Labour leavers do? Modest switching to the Tories would be enough to see the Tories through.

    Nonetheless, my point is that this pact seems to offer nothing for Plaid Cymru.

    I can see no seat that PC are MORE likely to take because of it.

    However, I can see seats where PC will lose vote share.
    One thing I am totally confident Labour Leavers will not do in Wales is switch to the Tories. Surprisingly, the beneficiaries of disillusionment with Labour among leave voters seem to be the Liberal Democrats. That incidentally is the real lesson to take from Brecon and Radnor and particularly the voting patterns in Ystradgynlais.

    We have been told over and over that Labour voters are not vitally interested in the EU. I wonder if we're all missing a very obvious lesson from that - if Labour leave voters get disillusioned with Labour, it's the left wing they're going to turn to regardless of the official party line on Brexit.

    Edit - yes, I fully agree with your main point and have said it myself before. The only realistic Plaid target is Ynys Mon and that's (a) Leave and (b) hasn't voted Liberal in many decades.
    Ynys Mon Voted 50.9% Leave, lower than the UK average and not by a wide enough margin to characterise the seat as having a Leave identity.

    I think that being part of a Remain-Alliance could help Plaid win votes from Labour Remainers. Combined with the general fall in Labour support it gives Plaid a good chance of taking the seat.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,908
    Bercow and Verhofstadt

    What to say

    So does ANYONE still think Bercow is a fit person for speaker?

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,583
    Drutt said:



    Much more common than us are people who see the Wagnum PI story, with its blend of celebrity, shade, internet detectivism, infinite retweetability and tabloid hoo-hah, as a proper top story.

    Pick someone in the country at random and they are 20/1 a political nerd and maybe only 3/1 a messy bitch who loves drama.

    Dunno if that's true. I hear people talking about Brexit all the time - at work, in the shops, over poker. I've not heard anyone mention Wagnum PI, whatever that is, or that squabble between two footballers' wives.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,017

    I must say I’m sceptical about these sorts of pacts.

    There’s plenty of evidence to show the voters don’t like being gamed. I suspect it’ll be far less significant than people think, even if it’s pulled off in all of those 70+ seats.

    Indeed my own political activism was catalysed by having no LD to vote for - the result, I discovered subsequently, of a local pact to let the Greens in.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,908
    nichomar said:

    How will this affect the broadcast rules for things like party election broadcasts?

    Will it be Swinson only in any leader debates to represent the Remain Alliance?

    QT panel tomorrow a disgrace four leavers and a neutral including the jhb who has published a lawyers home address who now suffers death threats.
    Much better when its packed with remainers eh
  • Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    I think it os incredibly dangeorous policy. Standing on GE platform of a 2nd referendum and then having that if you win is totally different.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,726
    Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    I think even the most optimistic of Lib Dems, and I am one, considers the prospect of winning a majority at the next election to be quite small. However, if there is a party going hell for leather to a No Deal extreme, the best way to give yourself a USP is to go hell for leather to the other extreme. You then use the votes you mop up as a result as leverage for some kind of BINO EEA option.

    In the unlikely event we win then revoke is marginally less insane than the No Deal we are being promised from the other side - economically anyway. It’s decisive but so’s the alternative at this point.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,726
    Gabs2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    An extension only if there's an election?

    What will cowardly Corbyn do?
    The French always say this but buckle in the end.
    The words “They’ll buckle in the end” should be used as an epitaph for this whole fiasco.
  • Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    If the lib dems campaign for a revoke and then obtain a majority, I can't see it being as bad as having to live with a buggered economy due to a flawed referendum full of lies and misleading statements. Can't people change their mind for god's sake? I think that the leave camp are frightened to death of a new referendum because they would lose, and they no it!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,179
    Scott_P said:
    France demanding a general election or EUref2 as the price of agreeing an extension apparently
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,908

    Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    I think it os incredibly dangeorous policy. Standing on GE platform of a 2nd referendum and then having that if you win is totally different.
    To clarify (once again), the LD policy is to Revoke only if the Party wins an overall majority at the next GE. Otherwise it is to support a second referendum.

    This will be clearly stated in the manifesto so if people want to Revoke in sufficient numbers to provide a Parliamentary majority for the LDs that will be clear.

    Where we are lacking clarity is in Labour and Conservative policies - Labour's is a complete mystery while Conservative policy is whatever Boris tells the audience listening to him at any given moment.

    I'd consider the lack of a coherent policy from either of the two so-called "main" parties far more worrying.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,468
    Floater said:

    Bercow and Verhofstadt

    What to say

    So does ANYONE still think Bercow is a fit person for speaker?

    Yes me
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,475
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    France demanding a general election or EUref2 as the price of agreeing an extension apparently
    Well an election is nailed on so it’s hardly controversial.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    Is it stupid? It’s what they want, so why not?

    Had Remain actually legitimately won, rather than us remaining because politicians won’t let us leave despite leave winning, it surely would have been acceptable for UKIP to have a policy of leaving if they won a majority.
    UKIP having a policy of leaving if they won a Parliamentary majority makes a lot more sense than Cameron holding a referendum proposing a massive change to our relationship with the EU that he was not in favour of and made no preparation to implement.

    If you hold a referendum to confirm a change you are in favour of - like say an Assembly for North-East England - then neither result creates a constitutional crisis. If you win, you implement the change you want to implement. If you lose then you don't do anything. Simple.

    It was bonkers to create a situation where a referendum brought down the government.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,772
    I am contemplating life as a criminal in retirement feeding kitchen scraps to my chickens.

    Fortunately there are few policemen in rural Cumbria and those that exist are busy investigating thefts of scones from tea shops.

    So I may get away with it.

    But, sshhhhh, don't tell anyone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245
    Floater said:
    Whoops.

    That is going to lead to a truly sterile debate...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,475
    Floater said:

    Bercow and Verhofstadt

    What to say

    So does ANYONE still think Bercow is a fit person for speaker?

    Yes he’s great anything that pisses off the ERG no deal death cult is fine by me !

    At the end of the day he allowed MPs to debate and vote on the key issue of our times .

    MPs can vote how they like , Bercow hasn’t some super power to force them to vote a certain way .

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,897
    nichomar said:

    Floater said:

    Bercow and Verhofstadt

    What to say

    So does ANYONE still think Bercow is a fit person for speaker?

    Yes me
    Great speaker
  • malcolmg said:

    nichomar said:

    Floater said:

    Bercow and Verhofstadt

    What to say

    So does ANYONE still think Bercow is a fit person for speaker?

    Yes me
    Great speaker
    and me
  • The last extension we were asked to use it wisely. We didn't.

    Seems reasonable then that for the next extension there'll be a greater focus on "what is this extension actually going to change".
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,468

    Drutt said:



    Much more common than us are people who see the Wagnum PI story, with its blend of celebrity, shade, internet detectivism, infinite retweetability and tabloid hoo-hah, as a proper top story.

    Pick someone in the country at random and they are 20/1 a political nerd and maybe only 3/1 a messy bitch who loves drama.

    Dunno if that's true. I hear people talking about Brexit all the time - at work, in the shops, over poker. I've not heard anyone mention Wagnum PI, whatever that is, or that squabble between two footballers' wives.
    In my Spanish immigrant bubble it is not acceptable to talk about it, to divisive with no ability to influence it. The singer mentioned it on Sunday and was universally told to leave it alone. As a community we can’t afford to be driven apart and have silently agreed to leave it till we know something definite. Mind you nobody talks about that shit between two people who really should know better given their rather fortunate circumstances because their other halves can kick a ball around. There is actually more derision of footballers than politicians which takes some doing.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    The last extension we were asked to use it wisely. We didn't.

    Seems reasonable then that for the next extension there'll be a greater focus on "what is this extension actually going to change".

    But the EU is not treating us as "we". They are talking with the Lib Dems behind the scenes and will agree a strategy amenable to them.
  • nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    France demanding a general election or EUref2 as the price of agreeing an extension apparently
    Well an election is nailed on so it’s hardly controversial.
    I cannot think of a legal mechanism whereby a GE can be guaranteed in return for an extension. Possibly a vonc between 21st and 31st October which could conceivably lead to a GE, but it means the EU would be interfering spectacularly in UK internal politics.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245

    malcolmg said:

    nichomar said:

    Floater said:

    Bercow and Verhofstadt

    What to say

    So does ANYONE still think Bercow is a fit person for speaker?

    Yes me
    Great speaker
    and me
    He was forever annoying the government, so he was clearly doing something right.

    And compared to Michael Martin he was a colossus.
  • eekeek Posts: 8,154
    DougSeal said:

    Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    I think even the most optimistic of Lib Dems, and I am one, considers the prospect of winning a majority at the next election to be quite small. However, if there is a party going hell for leather to a No Deal extreme, the best way to give yourself a USP is to go hell for leather to the other extreme. You then use the votes you mop up as a result as leverage for some kind of BINO EEA option.

    In the unlikely event we win then revoke is marginally less insane than the No Deal we are being promised from the other side - economically anyway. It’s decisive but so’s the alternative at this point.
    Revoke is not however final as you could revoke and leave after a subsequent general election without much difficulty

    Leaving with No Deal will not allow us to retain under our current deal with the EU - any return would be for full on integration.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,931
    How on earth can Hillary be laid at 13.5?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,931
    isam said:

    I must say I’m sceptical about these sorts of pacts.

    There’s plenty of evidence to show the voters don’t like being gamed. I suspect it’ll be far less significant than people think, even if it’s pulled off in all of those 70+ seats.

    These pacts are incredibly popular with political over thinkers. People on here have been boasting of swapping votes with people in other constituencies for negligible tactical advantage a long time.
    True.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,759

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    Is it stupid? It’s what they want, so why not?

    Had Remain actually legitimately won, rather than us remaining because politicians won’t let us leave despite leave winning, it surely would have been acceptable for UKIP to have a policy of leaving if they won a majority.
    UKIP having a policy of leaving if they won a Parliamentary majority makes a lot more sense than Cameron holding a referendum proposing a massive change to our relationship with the EU that he was not in favour of and made no preparation to implement.

    If you hold a referendum to confirm a change you are in favour of - like say an Assembly for North-East England - then neither result creates a constitutional crisis. If you win, you implement the change you want to implement. If you lose then you don't do anything. Simple.

    It was bonkers to create a situation where a referendum brought down the government.
    Yeah I cant believe a PM would hold a referendum if he couldn't cope with either side winning. Massive blunder
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 363
    I don't buy this and would lay 70 on the spread betting markets. In 1983 the Libs had a pact with the SDP, despite getting around a quarter of the votes they only got 23 seats.
    Even on a quarter of the vote Labour would still get around 200 seats and the SDP then were far bigger than the Green Party are today.
    The country is still split pretty evenly on Brexit but far more remainers would still vote Lab or Con than would change their vote to this pact and very few leavers would now vote for the pact parties.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Is it true Bercow is negotiating directly with the EU?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,208

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think the Tory vote will be close to 12k in CE&D. The Labour vote in 2017 was already 12k, but I assume that will fall a bit.

    That assumes an actual rise in the Tory support, so would have to involve some switching from Plaid. Even allowing for some Plaid supporters being pretty right wing, that strikes me as a bold assumption.

    I agree it will be a tight marginal, very possibly a three way marginal, but I expect Plaid to hold.
    I am assuming most Plaid Cymru Leavers won't vote (I think a fair assumption).

    What will Labour leavers do? Modest switching to the Tories would be enough to see the Tories through.

    Nonetheless, my point is that this pact seems to offer nothing for Plaid Cymru.

    I can see no seat that PC are MORE likely to take because of it.

    However, I can see seats where PC will lose vote share.
    One thing I am totally confident Labour Leavers will not do in Wales is switch to the Tories. Surprisingly, the beneficiaries of disillusionment with Labour among leave voters seem to be the Liberal Democrats. That incidentally is the real lesson to take from Brecon and Radnor and particularly the voting patterns in Ystradgynlais.

    We have been told over and over that Labour voters are not vitally interested in the EU. I wonder if we're all missing a very obvious lesson from that - if Labour leave voters get disillusioned with Labour, it's the left wing they're going to turn to regardless of the official party line on Brexit.

    Edit - yes, I fully agree with your main point and have said it myself before. The only realistic Plaid target is Ynys Mon and that's (a) Leave and (b) hasn't voted Liberal in many decades.
    Ynys Mon Voted 50.9% Leave, lower than the UK average and not by a wide enough margin to characterise the seat as having a Leave identity.

    I think that being part of a Remain-Alliance could help Plaid win votes from Labour Remainers. Combined with the general fall in Labour support it gives Plaid a good chance of taking the seat.

    I think the reason why this argument fails is that Labour Remainers in Ynys Mon have a Labour Remainer MP in Albert Owen

    Now admittedly Albert Owen is standing down, but unless his successor is very different in views, I don't see any real reason why a Labour Remainer should switch to Plaid Cymru.
  • "One does not decide the truth of a thought according to whether it is right-wing or left-wing."
    - Albert Camus, 1952
  • Trump's an absolute [insert language that gets you banned from PB]

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,058
    The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,597

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    Is it stupid? It’s what they want, so why not?

    Had Remain actually legitimately won, rather than us remaining because politicians won’t let us leave despite leave winning, it surely would have been acceptable for UKIP to have a policy of leaving if they won a majority.
    UKIP having a policy of leaving if they won a Parliamentary majority makes a lot more sense than Cameron holding a referendum proposing a massive change to our relationship with the EU that he was not in favour of and made no preparation to implement.

    If you hold a referendum to confirm a change you are in favour of - like say an Assembly for North-East England - then neither result creates a constitutional crisis. If you win, you implement the change you want to implement. If you lose then you don't do anything. Simple.

    It was bonkers to create a situation where a referendum brought down the government.
    Well Cameron never for a moment believed LEAVE would win. If he'd thought there was the slightest chance of LEAVE winning he'd never have held the referendum,
  • Andy_JS said:

    The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.

    No spoilers please.

    My money would be on SuperMac increasing the Tory majority.
  • nichomar said:

    Drutt said:



    Much more common than us are people who see the Wagnum PI story, with its blend of celebrity, shade, internet detectivism, infinite retweetability and tabloid hoo-hah, as a proper top story.

    Pick someone in the country at random and they are 20/1 a political nerd and maybe only 3/1 a messy bitch who loves drama.

    Dunno if that's true. I hear people talking about Brexit all the time - at work, in the shops, over poker. I've not heard anyone mention Wagnum PI, whatever that is, or that squabble between two footballers' wives.
    In my Spanish immigrant bubble it is not acceptable to talk about it, to divisive with no ability to influence it. The singer mentioned it on Sunday and was universally told to leave it alone. As a community we can’t afford to be driven apart and have silently agreed to leave it till we know something definite. Mind you nobody talks about that shit between two people who really should know better given their rather fortunate circumstances because their other halves can kick a ball around. There is actually more derision of footballers than politicians which takes some doing.
    Surely any Brit living in Spain who voted for Brexit has already been beaten to death with their Sky box by their fellow expats for being so monumentally stupid? Just please God don't let them move back here to sponge off our NHS.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,000
    edited October 2019
    Do I need to know who Rebekah and Coleen are, or can I safely park that one as children's froth?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245

    Do I need to know who Rebekah and Coleen are, or can safely park that one as children's froth?

    They're just wags tongueing.
  • GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    Is it stupid? It’s what they want, so why not?

    Had Remain actually legitimately won, rather than us remaining because politicians won’t let us leave despite leave winning, it surely would have been acceptable for UKIP to have a policy of leaving if they won a majority.
    UKIP having a policy of leaving if they won a Parliamentary majority makes a lot more sense than Cameron holding a referendum proposing a massive change to our relationship with the EU that he was not in favour of and made no preparation to implement.

    If you hold a referendum to confirm a change you are in favour of - like say an Assembly for North-East England - then neither result creates a constitutional crisis. If you win, you implement the change you want to implement. If you lose then you don't do anything. Simple.

    It was bonkers to create a situation where a referendum brought down the government.
    Well Cameron never for a moment believed LEAVE would win. If he'd thought there was the slightest chance of LEAVE winning he'd never have held the referendum,
    Fake news.

    Read his autobiography, read the contemporary interviews at the time.

    One of Cameron's fears was if a party won a majority on circa 35% of the vote with a manifesto pledge to Leave the EU, at least with a referendum you have to get a majority of votes not a plurality.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245

    Trump's an absolute [insert language that gets you banned from PB]

    TSE, you frequently use language that would get the rest of us banned from PB. What about the time you posted Alan Duncan's summary of Boris Johnson?
  • Andy_JS said:

    The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.

    No spoilers please.

    My money would be on SuperMac increasing the Tory majority.
    I've heard the new MP for Finchley is one to watch. You heard it here first!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,000
    edited October 2019

    How on earth can Hillary be laid at 13.5?

    It's because the sane have maxed out.
  • Do I need to know who Rebekah and Coleen are, or can safely park that one as children's froth?

    No.

    As an aside Coleen Rooney isn't very good detective in the past, she failed to realise her husband was repeatedly cheating on her, usually with prostitutes.

    Is there any evidence she's improved her detective skills?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,245

    Andy_JS said:

    The 1959 election is being broadcast live on BBC4 if anyone's interested.

    No spoilers please.

    My money would be on SuperMac increasing the Tory majority.
    I've heard the new MP for Finchley is one to watch. You heard it here first!
    Nah, she'll get nowhere, she's married to a divorcee.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,759
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Do Lib Dems and their friends honestly think they can just Revoke, and all will be well?

    Brexit has been a litany of stupidity, but that is probably the stupidest thing yet. And the most rapturously, myopically, thunderfuckingly irresponsible.

    Is it stupid? It’s what they want, so why not?

    Had Remain actually legitimately won, rather than us remaining because politicians won’t let us leave despite leave winning, it surely would have been acceptable for UKIP to have a policy of leaving if they won a majority.
    UKIP having a policy of leaving if they won a Parliamentary majority makes a lot more sense than Cameron holding a referendum proposing a massive change to our relationship with the EU that he was not in favour of and made no preparation to implement.

    If you hold a referendum to confirm a change you are in favour of - like say an Assembly for North-East England - then neither result creates a constitutional crisis. If you win, you implement the change you want to implement. If you lose then you don't do anything. Simple.

    It was bonkers to create a situation where a referendum brought down the government.
    Well Cameron never for a moment believed LEAVE would win. If he'd thought there was the slightest chance of LEAVE winning he'd never have held the referendum,
    Fake news.

    Read his autobiography, read the contemporary interviews at the time.

    One of Cameron's fears was if a party won a majority on circa 35% of the vote with a manifesto pledge to Leave the EU, at least with a referendum you have to get a majority of votes not a plurality.
    ...and you wouldnt have to actually Leave!

    I heard it was true that he didnt prepare at all from a civil servant I know. Cameron used to just laugh when people warned him Leave were going to win, so they said.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,188
    Floater said:

    Bercow and Verhofstadt

    What to say

    So does ANYONE still think Bercow is a fit person for speaker?

    I do!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Won't we be out or perpetually in by the time Heidi Hi's plan kicks in? So she's trying to fuck the country over regardless of Brexit outcome.
This discussion has been closed.