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  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,240
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, it's not the Opposition's duty to mindlessly oppose but to hold the Government to account.

    Are you seriously saying there is not a whole heap of substance to oppose here? The government’s policy is a basket case. They’re scrabbling around to find something, anything to save their own skin and meet an arbitrary self imposed deadline. Any opposition has to oppose this nonsense.
    Given that Labour could have said from the start it was in favour of Norway or Switzerland or BINO and still "honoured the result" (as much as WTO does), I'd say it has plenty of political cover to bin this deal off on the employment/environment/Singapore grounds alone.

    If the government wants a 'proper Tory Brexit', it should have organised itself to have a majority of MPs to deliver it. Without that, the landing zone should have been far closer to the mushy centre.
  • Sandpit said:

    The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.

    The *only* reason it’s being held is because Saturday’s date is the one in the Benn Act.
    No. That's the deadline. It would be held because the ( a ) the Government has chosen to go to the wire ( b ) the Government wants to transact relavent business to the Benn Act deadline. If ( b ) doesn't apply the sitting isn't needed and Labour need not vote to hold it. There is also no reason to reward ( a ).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I didn't say that.

    I was disputing your assertion that an Opposition's duty is simply to oppose without any consideration of the national interest, or other relevant factors.

    The Government's horrendous. So's the Opposition.

    The opposition has a clear duty to oppose this ‘horrendous government’ and its basket case Brexit policy. It’s not as if it has to pick holes here. The flaws are obvious and gargantuan.
    I suggest that you are both right; the Government is in a mess, and digging itself in further; the Opposition's duty is, yes to point that out, but to go further and to suggest improvement or amelioration.
    That neither of them are any good at what they are supposed to be doing is the tragedy of our country at the moment.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.

    Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?

    By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,690
    edited October 2019
    Roger Scully is right to issue health warnings of seat change projections based on UNS when polls are finding that party loyalties in Wales are shifting in such biblical proportions. However, I don't find the projections of 9 net Con gains to 17 particularly implausible if the aggregate poll figures are correct.

    It's worth noting that in the two regional polls we have had recently, in Scotland and Wales, the projected losses for the Conservatives in the former are fully offset by gains in the latter. So in terms of whether Johnson secures something close to a workable majority, it then comes down to a simplified question of how many seats Johnson could pick up in England from Labour, to offset losses to the Lib Dems in England.

    https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    This is my 100th post on this forum. Better make it a good on
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    Dammit, pressed “post comment” by mistake
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    Sandpit said:

    The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.

    The *only* reason it’s being held is because Saturday’s date is the one in the Benn Act.
    No. That's the deadline. It would be held because the ( a ) the Government has chosen to go to the wire ( b ) the Government wants to transact relavent business to the Benn Act deadline. If ( b ) doesn't apply the sitting isn't needed and Labour need not vote to hold it. There is also no reason to reward ( a ).
    The only date available for the EU to agree a deal was at the summit which concludes on Thursday night. Parliament, knowing this when they passed the Benn Act, voted to mandate the extension if the deal wasn’t agreed by themselves before Saturday. Hence we sit on Saturday to debate it. If instead, they’d specified next Tuesday, there would be no need for the Saturday sitting.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 494
    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.

    Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?

    By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
    Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,453

    moonshine said:

    Stocky said:

    MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."

    Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.

    I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.
    The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.
    Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.

    This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
    In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.

    Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
    They will.struggle as they are entirely set up to take on the Tories only
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I didn't say that.

    I was disputing your assertion that an Opposition's duty is simply to oppose without any consideration of the national interest, or other relevant factors.

    The Government's horrendous. So's the Opposition.

    The opposition has a clear duty to oppose this ‘horrendous government’ and its basket case Brexit policy. It’s not as if it has to pick holes here. The flaws are obvious and gargantuan.
    I suggest that you are both right; the Government is in a mess, and digging itself in further; the Opposition's duty is, yes to point that out, but to go further and to suggest improvement or amelioration.
    That neither of them are any good at what they are supposed to be doing is the tragedy of our country at the moment.
    No opposition of any era would have voted for this chaotic ever changing government policy. There are too many weaknesses of substance here, let alone the way the government has conducted itself in office. Opposition is obvious and entirely justified.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    I think thaty Barnier`s comments this morning are another iteration of the "blame game". Maybe I`m being overly cynical but I suspect that a deal remains very unlikely and EU doesn`t want to be seen to be the cause of this.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 494
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I didn't say that.

    I was disputing your assertion that an Opposition's duty is simply to oppose without any consideration of the national interest, or other relevant factors.

    The Government's horrendous. So's the Opposition.

    The opposition has a clear duty to oppose this ‘horrendous government’ and its basket case Brexit policy. It’s not as if it has to pick holes here. The flaws are obvious and gargantuan.
    I suggest that you are both right; the Government is in a mess, and digging itself in further; the Opposition's duty is, yes to point that out, but to go further and to suggest improvement or amelioration.
    That neither of them are any good at what they are supposed to be doing is the tragedy of our country at the moment.
    No opposition of any era would have voted for this chaotic ever changing government policy. There are too many weaknesses of substance here, let alone the way the government has conducted itself in office. Opposition is obvious and entirely justified.
    I dare say that most of the features you find objectionable are covered by the Political Declaration, which is non-binding, rather than the binding exit treaty. Win the next election and change the nature of the future parternship to your heart's content. Or is there something of substance covered by the binding text (other than Brexit itself)?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.

    Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?

    By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
    Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
    The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.

  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.

    The *only* reason it’s being held is because Saturday’s date is the one in the Benn Act.
    No. That's the deadline. It would be held because the ( a ) the Government has chosen to go to the wire ( b ) the Government wants to transact relavent business to the Benn Act deadline. If ( b ) doesn't apply the sitting isn't needed and Labour need not vote to hold it. There is also no reason to reward ( a ).
    The only date available for the EU to agree a deal was at the summit which concludes on Thursday night. Parliament, knowing this when they passed the Benn Act, voted to mandate the extension if the deal wasn’t agreed by themselves before Saturday. Hence we sit on Saturday to debate it. If instead, they’d specified next Tuesday, there would be no need for the Saturday sitting.
    But the Benn Act is a response to the 31st October No Deal threat. Which is arbitary government policy. There is no legal crisis requiring a Saturday sitting beyond one flowing from the Government's unilateral policy decisions. There is no reason why Labour need get sucked into the Government's chaos if they don't want to.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 494
    TGOHF2 said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.

    Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?

    By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
    Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
    The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.

    It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all of a type on that list - boutiquey cocktail places. But they do them very well here. The transformation of the old chinatown district is something to behold.
  • eekeek Posts: 7,079

    The Kinnockite grouping has been chuntering about backing MV4 if the social/environmental/level playing field provisions in the PD were *beefed up*.

    Boris has ( so far ) entirely removed them. One of the more mystifying aspects of the PB Brexit echo chamber is why Kinnock is going to ride to the resuce just at the moment the Tories have moved even further from his position.

    Read the Wales opinion poll this morning to understand Kinnock's position
    Opinion polls only matter at an election.

    They have to retain their Labour rosette first and that's going to be a lot harder.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.

    Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?

    By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
    Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
    Singapore is a fantastic place to spend a few days, clean, green and obviously prosperous., should be on every F1 fan’s bucket list. The beer is really expensive though.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,271
    edited October 2019

    moonshine said:



    No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).

    Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.

    I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
    They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.

    Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
    The chances of a Singapore on Thames are approximately zero.

    For all the occasional talk ** of it the key fact is that voters want more government spending not less nor do 'bonfire of the regulations' ever happen.

    Meanwhile it is among some PB Remainers that a burning desire to cut the wages of the low paid exists.

    ** Usually by people whose knowledge of Singapore extends only to shiny buildings and lower taxes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    edited October 2019

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.

    The *only* reason it’s being held is because Saturday’s date is the one in the Benn Act.
    No. That's the deadline. It would be held because the ( a ) the Government has chosen to go to the wire ( b ) the Government wants to transact relavent business to the Benn Act deadline. If ( b ) doesn't apply the sitting isn't needed and Labour need not vote to hold it. There is also no reason to reward ( a ).
    The only date available for the EU to agree a deal was at the summit which concludes on Thursday night. Parliament, knowing this when they passed the Benn Act, voted to mandate the extension if the deal wasn’t agreed by themselves before Saturday. Hence we sit on Saturday to debate it. If instead, they’d specified next Tuesday, there would be no need for the Saturday sitting.
    But the Benn Act is a response to the 31st October No Deal threat. Which is arbitary government policy. There is no legal crisis requiring a Saturday sitting beyond one flowing from the Government's unilateral policy decisions. There is no reason why Labour need get sucked into the Government's chaos if they don't want to.
    If they didn’t want the government to remain in place, they’ve had plenty of time to raise a vote of confidence against them but have chosen not to.

    It’s quite clear that the only thing of any importance to them, is having Boris Johnson sign the extension letter.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Morning all. If a deal is presented Saturday that the ERG and DUP are on board with it's a straight case of the ex Tory 21 needing to be countered by pro deal indy and labour. If the whip is offered back, I think it passes. You've got Hoey, elphicke, Austin, the former lib dem, norman lamb (possibly), and the hardcore lab leave 4 or so who will go for a deal against uncertain naysayers amongst the 21. Mann and Omara will be MIA. Its tight!
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.

    Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?

    By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
    Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
    Singapore is a fantastic place to spend a few days, clean, green and obviously prosperous., should be on every F1 fan’s bucket list. The beer is really expensive though.
    True, but if you look at the first housing estates from the train window on the way to the airport, it looks a horrible place to live for the working classes
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    eek said:

    The Kinnockite grouping has been chuntering about backing MV4 if the social/environmental/level playing field provisions in the PD were *beefed up*.

    Boris has ( so far ) entirely removed them. One of the more mystifying aspects of the PB Brexit echo chamber is why Kinnock is going to ride to the resuce just at the moment the Tories have moved even further from his position.

    Read the Wales opinion poll this morning to understand Kinnock's position
    Opinion polls only matter at an election.

    They have to retain their Labour rosette first and that's going to be a lot harder.
    Very true. Important to remember in 2017 the start if the campaign (or just before it) had a welsh poll with Tory lead and it evaporated and reversed very quickly.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    I’m having a late breakfast in Lisbon in the EU superstate. But why does the TV weather map only show the statelet of Portugal?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223

    moonshine said:



    No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).

    Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.

    I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
    They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.

    Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
    I only hope Nick wasn't typing this post with a straight face or does he really think we're that stupid.

    Such a stance is of course totally understandable politically but morally disingenuous and illogical to boot.

    This is the WA and there is all to play for in the PD. If Labour votes through the WA, agrees to an election, win a thumping majority (which they will, right?), then they can put in as many anti-Singaporean clauses and safeguards as they want.
  • eek said:

    The Kinnockite grouping has been chuntering about backing MV4 if the social/environmental/level playing field provisions in the PD were *beefed up*.

    Boris has ( so far ) entirely removed them. One of the more mystifying aspects of the PB Brexit echo chamber is why Kinnock is going to ride to the resuce just at the moment the Tories have moved even further from his position.

    Read the Wales opinion poll this morning to understand Kinnock's position
    Opinion polls only matter at an election.

    They have to retain their Labour rosette first and that's going to be a lot harder.
    The trend is away from labour and it is a real problem in the Valleys and for Kinnock
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited October 2019
    The new Yougov Welsh poll this morning would see the Tories gain 9 seats from Labour in Wales and with the Tories ahead in Wales too, Boris would be the most successful Tory leader in Wales at a general election since Disraeli

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Mr. Topping, quite.

    It's why Labour's avowed reason for refusing to back May's deal (it's not a permanent customs union) is nonsensical.

    The long term deal and a withdrawal deal are separate.

    It's entirely reasonable to have qualms about either May's deal or the current work-in-progress, but the customs union line was just false.

    [As an aside, leaving the EU and staying in the customs union is bloody stupid anyway, but there we are].
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Morning all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867

    Morning all. If a deal is presented Saturday that the ERG and DUP are on board with it's a straight case of the ex Tory 21 needing to be countered by pro deal indy and labour. If the whip is offered back, I think it passes. You've got Hoey, elphicke, Austin, the former lib dem, norman lamb (possibly), and the hardcore lab leave 4 or so who will go for a deal against uncertain naysayers amongst the 21. Mann and Omara will be MIA. Its tight!

    I will be very surprised if the whole ERG is on board.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,001
    Streeter said:

    I’m having a late breakfast in Lisbon in the EU superstate. But why does the TV weather map only show the statelet of Portugal?

    Because the announcer can't pronounce 'the rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain'.
  • Question about number of government employees in the health and social work sectors.

    The ONS shows employment in the NHS increasing from 1.505 million in June 2013 to 1.693 million in June 2019.

    At the same time public sector employment in 'other health and social work' has fallen from 343 thousand to 216 thousand.

    I'm curious as to how much cross over there is between the two - for example are some people still doing the same work but have been moved under the NHS umbrella ?
  • TGOHF2 said:
    Those “community organisers” sound very suspicious. The whiff of political commissar hangs about what they appear to be doing.

  • TGOHF2 said:

    XR disguised as Orthodox Jews trying to smash up the DFT.

    Ticks a lot of class of 2019 lefty boxes that one.


    https://order-order.com/2019/10/15/eco-terrorist-attacking-department-transport/

    We have identified the woman trying to smash the window as Dr. Gail Bradbrook – a co-founder of Extinction Rebellion who in 2016 took an 11,000-mile flight to Costa Rica for her luxury holiday.

    Well being a eco protestor is really hard work, everybody deserves a holiday....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481
    Barnier sounding very encouraging this morning... And a lot of sour Remainers.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.

    The *only* reason it’s being held is because Saturday’s date is the one in the Benn Act.
    No. That's the deadline. It would be held because the ( a ) the Government has chosen to go to the wire ( b ) the Government wants to transact relavent business to the Benn Act deadline. If ( b ) doesn't apply the sitting isn't needed and Labour need not vote to hold it. There is also no reason to reward ( a ).
    The only date available for the EU to agree a deal was at the summit which concludes on Thursday night. Parliament, knowing this when they passed the Benn Act, voted to mandate the extension if the deal wasn’t agreed by themselves before Saturday. Hence we sit on Saturday to debate it. If instead, they’d specified next Tuesday, there would be no need for the Saturday sitting.
    But the Benn Act is a response to the 31st October No Deal threat. Which is arbitary government policy. There is no legal crisis requiring a Saturday sitting beyond one flowing from the Government's unilateral policy decisions. There is no reason why Labour need get sucked into the Government's chaos if they don't want to.
    That is unfair, adherance to 31st October is not arbitrary at all. After we leave the EU France will become far more powerful than the UK, so it would be a huge mistake for us to insult Macron by not leaving on the date he chose for us to leave on.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Morning all. If a deal is presented Saturday that the ERG and DUP are on board with it's a straight case of the ex Tory 21 needing to be countered by pro deal indy and labour. If the whip is offered back, I think it passes. You've got Hoey, elphicke, Austin, the former lib dem, norman lamb (possibly), and the hardcore lab leave 4 or so who will go for a deal against uncertain naysayers amongst the 21. Mann and Omara will be MIA. Its tight!

    I will be very surprised if the whole ERG is on board.
    I haven't seen any suggesting they wont be (yet)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,945
    Delighted to see the pillock parade being closed down.

    Perhaps NHS patients can get their treatment now..

  • True, but if you look at the first housing estates from the train window on the way to the airport, it looks a horrible place to live for the working classes

    Don't worry, the Singapore on La Manche brigade will be quite happy to accommodate horrible places for the working classes to live in their bright new future. In fact they'll be a prerequisite.
  • bengbeng Posts: 1
    Getting a deal through by the 31st is literally impossible. It needs to get through both the UK and EU Parliaments, and then the entire bill containing all of it needs to debated, voted on (including all the inevitable amendments).

    The last full sitting of the EU Parliament is the 23rd October this month.

    The betting markets are overestimating the chances of leaving on the 31st because they don't fully understand the true extent of the technical barriers that are still necessary to overcome.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Welcome to PB, Mr. Beng.
  • Mr. Thompson, maybe.

    I saw some videos a while ago suggesting that high cards (AK) versus low pocket pairs were something like 50/50 when it came to winning.

    And with your pocket threes you're always going to worry that anybody else could have a better pair. Even if you get three of a kind, that's unlikely to be the best possible hand.

    Edited extra bit: also depends where you're sat. Playing last with everyone else checking, could be good to be aggressive. Going first, if someone triples your raise you've got to wonder if they've got pocket aces or kings.

    Heads-up from memory its 55% to pocket 3's and 45% to AK suited. If the opposition AK is unsuited you've got a slightly better chance still. Either way a pocket pair heads-up is better than anything that's not a pair.

    However what you really want if you've got a weak pocket, unless you limp in and hope to hit a set, is to get rid of limpers and be playing heads-up with one opponent. If you simply limp in and there ends up being say 5 players in the hand come the flop then you're pretty much screwed as the more players there are the more chance someone will hit an out.
  • Jeremy Corbyn's closest aide Seumas Milne next 'on list' as John McDonnell accused of 'Soviet' style purge

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/14/jeremy-corbyns-closest-aide-warned-next-list-amid-claims-john/amp/
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    edited October 2019

    Question about number of government employees in the health and social work sectors.

    The ONS shows employment in the NHS increasing from 1.505 million in June 2013 to 1.693 million in June 2019.

    At the same time public sector employment in 'other health and social work' has fallen from 343 thousand to 216 thousand.

    I'm curious as to how much cross over there is between the two - for example are some people still doing the same work but have been moved under the NHS umbrella ?

    My daughter went the other way so she does the same job, mental health therapy, but no longer an NHS member.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867

    Jeremy Corbyn's closest aide Seumas Milne next 'on list' as John McDonnell accused of 'Soviet' style purge

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/14/jeremy-corbyns-closest-aide-warned-next-list-amid-claims-john/amp/

    Interesting. McDonnell can obviously see what a mess they are all making of it and is acting.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 494

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    e.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    p.
    I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.

    Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?

    By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
    Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
    Singapore is a fantastic place to spend a few days, clean, green and obviously prosperous., should be on every F1 fan’s bucket list. The beer is really expensive though.
    True, but if you look at the first housing estates from the train window on the way to the airport, it looks a horrible place to live for the working classes
    I can understand why you might think this if you are only looking out of a train window and have a distaste for concrete. But if you get out of the train at those places, talk to people and see inside their apartments you'll feel otherwise. The Singapore government has a rolling programme of renewals and upgrades to its state housing (which houses 80% of the population). There's nothing wrong with state housing when managed properly.
  • Jeremy Corbyn's closest aide Seumas Milne next 'on list' as John McDonnell accused of 'Soviet' style purge

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/14/jeremy-corbyns-closest-aide-warned-next-list-amid-claims-john/amp/

    Interesting. McDonnell can obviously see what a mess they are all making of it and is acting.
    There is a revolution under way ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited October 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!
    For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

    They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections
    Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.
    Yes but the trend is firmly away from labour

    When was the last time the Tories polled higher than Labour in Wales?
    The last time the Tories polled higher than Labour in Wales was 1900, the last time the Tories won most seats in Wales was 1874 when Disraeli beat Gladstone
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836

    Question about number of government employees in the health and social work sectors.

    The ONS shows employment in the NHS increasing from 1.505 million in June 2013 to 1.693 million in June 2019.

    At the same time public sector employment in 'other health and social work' has fallen from 343 thousand to 216 thousand.

    I'm curious as to how much cross over there is between the two - for example are some people still doing the same work but have been moved under the NHS umbrella ?

    If anything it should have been the other way under the Lansley 'reforms.' Much of the work which I used, as an NHS Employee, to do before retirement is now being dealt with by Local Government.

    So yes, strange

    Although so much has been contracted out that perhaps the fall in 'other health and social work' is understandable.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584


    True, but if you look at the first housing estates from the train window on the way to the airport, it looks a horrible place to live for the working classes

    Don't worry, the Singapore on La Manche brigade will be quite happy to accommodate horrible places for the working classes to live in their bright new future. In fact they'll be a prerequisite.
    In Singapore they put the factories over the border in the wild hilly land of Malaysia where there is cheap labour but a lower standard of education.

    Insert your own joke here.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Streeter said:

    I’m having a late breakfast in Lisbon in the EU superstate. But why does the TV weather map only show the statelet of Portugal?

    Because the announcer can't pronounce 'the rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain'.
    Ah yes that must be it. Mind you, Portuguese always sounds like Russian to me.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,265
    nichomar said:



    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.

    Singapore isn't my cup of tea either, but impressive. Brexit Britain won't be Singapore however. Crony capitalism is more likely.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    .

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.

    Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?

    By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
    Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
    Singapore is a fantastic place to spend a few days, clean, green and obviously prosperous., should be on every F1 fan’s bucket list. The beer is really expensive though.
    True, but if you look at the first housing estates from the train window on the way to the airport, it looks a horrible place to live for the working classes
    Worse than the poorer areas of any other large city though?
  • Mr. Thompson, maybe.

    I saw some videos a while ago suggesting that high cards (AK) versus low pocket pairs were something like 50/50 when it came to winning.

    And with your pocket threes you're always going to worry that anybody else could have a better pair. Even if you get three of a kind, that's unlikely to be the best possible hand.

    Edited extra bit: also depends where you're sat. Playing last with everyone else checking, could be good to be aggressive. Going first, if someone triples your raise you've got to wonder if they've got pocket aces or kings.

    Heads-up from memory its 55% to pocket 3's and 45% to AK suited. If the opposition AK is unsuited you've got a slightly better chance still. Either way a pocket pair heads-up is better than anything that's not a pair.

    However what you really want if you've got a weak pocket, unless you limp in and hope to hit a set, is to get rid of limpers and be playing heads-up with one opponent. If you simply limp in and there ends up being say 5 players in the hand come the flop then you're pretty much screwed as the more players there are the more chance someone will hit an out.
    JTs is 53% vs 33 46% so a pocket pair is not always best.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    FF43 said:

    nichomar said:



    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.

    Singapore isn't my cup of tea either, but impressive. Brexit Britain won't be Singapore however. Crony capitalism is more likely.
    We don’t have crony capitalism now ?

    Explain the VW diesel scandal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited October 2019
    Yougov projected 2021 Welsh Assembly seats

    Labour 18
    Tories 14
    Plaid 13
    BXP 9
    LDs 6

    https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/
  • TGOHF2 said:


    True, but if you look at the first housing estates from the train window on the way to the airport, it looks a horrible place to live for the working classes

    Don't worry, the Singapore on La Manche brigade will be quite happy to accommodate horrible places for the working classes to live in their bright new future. In fact they'll be a prerequisite.
    In Singapore they put the factories over the border in the wild hilly land of Malaysia where there is cheap labour but a lower standard of education.

    Insert your own joke here.
    Anywhere outside the home counties then. Plus ça change.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836
    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    e.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    p.
    I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.

    Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?

    By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
    Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
    Singapore is a fantastic place to spend a few days, clean, green and obviously prosperous., should be on every F1 fan’s bucket list. The beer is really expensive though.
    True, but if you look at the first housing estates from the train window on the way to the airport, it looks a horrible place to live for the working classes
    I can understand why you might think this if you are only looking out of a train window and have a distaste for concrete. But if you get out of the train at those places, talk to people and see inside their apartments you'll feel otherwise. The Singapore government has a rolling programme of renewals and upgrades to its state housing (which houses 80% of the population). There's nothing wrong with state housing when managed properly.
    Significantly better than some parts of Bangkok.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,073
    TGOHF2 said:
    Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,073
    Scott_P said:

    If those statements truly represent what the PM’s thinking they explicitly contradict the undertakings given to the court in the recent Scottish case. That case has not been dismissed but simply held over. So if the PM does not comply the courts will be acting.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,265
    TGOHF2 said:

    FF43 said:

    nichomar said:



    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.

    Singapore isn't my cup of tea either, but impressive. Brexit Britain won't be Singapore however. Crony capitalism is more likely.
    We don’t have crony capitalism now ?

    Explain the VW diesel scandal.
    Because Brexit is red tape heaven the government decides which businesses to favour and which will be left to wither.

    Unless we opt for the Vassal State
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
    Doesn't Johnson need every vote on Saturday? Why is he allowing Cabinet out at all this week. Keep them locked in a cupboard.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    FF43 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    FF43 said:

    nichomar said:



    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.

    Singapore isn't my cup of tea either, but impressive. Brexit Britain won't be Singapore however. Crony capitalism is more likely.
    We don’t have crony capitalism now ?

    Explain the VW diesel scandal.
    Because Brexit is red tape heaven the government decides which businesses to favour and which will be left to wither.

    Unless we opt for the Vassal State
    And VW ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    edited October 2019
    Very interesting figures on support for a public option vs. Medicare for All:
    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/465786-support-drops-for-medicare-for-all-but-increases-for-public-option

    73% vs 51% of the electorate is a big difference.
    The more popular option would also be a great deal easier for an incoming president with a packed agenda to get through Congress. S/he would be able to fight only so many battles - as Obama found out in his first term.

    The enthusiastic Republican turnout in the Louisiana state elections also gave me some pause for thought. All the signs are that next year's presidential election might see a record turnout form both Republicans and Democrats.

    This will be an exceptionally consequential election, and the Democrats cannot afford to blow it.
  • Am I right this morning in thinking that:

    1. We appear to be miles from any deal being agreed. In fact, its almost as though we've took TM's deal and binned it and are starting again from scratch.
    2. Even if we get some deal, its not guaranteed Parliament would back it (so what then?).
    3. We're therefore headed for an extension, probably a long one?
    4. At that point, I suspect BXP will start to erode into Conservative support, especially if its a long extension.
    5. So we'll go from the Labour party not wanting an election to wanting one, whilst the Conservative party will go from wanting one to not. So we won't get one.
    6. We'll zombie onwards to the next deadline which will be kicked again, as nothing will be resolved.

    Absolute hard end date probably isn't until late July 2022 when the next election MUST be held (maybe May 2022 if FTPA isn't repealed).
    I wonder if Parliament will try to go back to seven year terms?

    *sigh*
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    Mr. Jonathan, it's not the Opposition's duty to mindlessly oppose but to hold the Government to account.

    Excellent point, and one too often forgotten.
    I can't speak to the excellence of the point, but I'm not sure it's technically true. Holding the Government to account is Parliament s job, not just the Opposition's
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,265
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    FF43 said:

    nichomar said:



    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.

    Singapore isn't my cup of tea either, but impressive. Brexit Britain won't be Singapore however. Crony capitalism is more likely.
    We don’t have crony capitalism now ?

    Explain the VW diesel scandal.
    Because Brexit is red tape heaven the government decides which businesses to favour and which will be left to wither.

    Unless we opt for the Vassal State
    And VW ?
    Whataboutery. You think that Brexit would prevent a single VW type scandal? The opposite actually, due to reduced international legal constraint.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited October 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Very interesting figures on support for a public option vs. Medicare for All:
    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/465786-support-drops-for-medicare-for-all-but-increases-for-public-option

    73% vs 51% of the electorate is a big difference.
    The more popular option would also be a great deal easier for an incoming president with a packed agenda to get through Congress. S/he would be able to fight only so many battles - as Obama found out in his first term.

    The enthusiastic Republican turnout in the Louisiana state elections also gave me some pause for thought. All the signs are that next year's presidential election might see a record turnout form both Republicans and Democrats.

    This will be an exceptionally consequential election, and the Democrats cannot afford to blow it.

    While Warren and Sanders back Medicare for all, Biden backs a public option only.

    Only 28% of Republicans back Medicare for all but 58% back a public option.

    50% of Independent voters back Medicare for all but 73% back a public option
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    O'Rourke is certainly shifting the window on gun control:
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/15/beto-orourke-gun-debate-229849

    And much as I agree with him, will not now, I think, be the VP pick.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    FF43 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    FF43 said:

    nichomar said:



    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.

    Singapore isn't my cup of tea either, but impressive. Brexit Britain won't be Singapore however. Crony capitalism is more likely.
    We don’t have crony capitalism now ?

    Explain the VW diesel scandal.
    Because Brexit is red tape heaven the government decides which businesses to favour and which will be left to wither.

    Unless we opt for the Vassal State
    And VW ?
    Whataboutery. You think that Brexit would prevent a single VW type scandal? The opposite actually, due to reduced international legal constraint.
    You claimed Brexit would lead to crony capitalism.

    Which we have now.

  • Am I right this morning in thinking that:

    1. We appear to be miles from any deal being agreed. In fact, its almost as though we've took TM's deal and binned it and are starting again from scratch.
    2. Even if we get some deal, its not guaranteed Parliament would back it (so what then?).
    3. We're therefore headed for an extension, probably a long one?
    4. At that point, I suspect BXP will start to erode into Conservative support, especially if its a long extension.
    5. So we'll go from the Labour party not wanting an election to wanting one, whilst the Conservative party will go from wanting one to not. So we won't get one.
    6. We'll zombie onwards to the next deadline which will be kicked again, as nothing will be resolved.

    Absolute hard end date probably isn't until late July 2022 when the next election MUST be held (maybe May 2022 if FTPA isn't repealed).
    I wonder if Parliament will try to go back to seven year terms?

    *sigh*

    Mostly spot on. I dont think we are starting from scratch though, it is based on a previous version of Mays deal that we could have had a year ago but half the current cabinet claimed it was a betrayal, grotesque, surrender that no government could possibly imagine.
  • TGOHF2 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    FF43 said:

    nichomar said:



    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.

    Singapore isn't my cup of tea either, but impressive. Brexit Britain won't be Singapore however. Crony capitalism is more likely.
    We don’t have crony capitalism now ?

    Explain the VW diesel scandal.
    Because Brexit is red tape heaven the government decides which businesses to favour and which will be left to wither.

    Unless we opt for the Vassal State
    And VW ?
    Whataboutery. You think that Brexit would prevent a single VW type scandal? The opposite actually, due to reduced international legal constraint.
    You claimed Brexit would lead to crony capitalism.

    Which we have now.

    Is it possible to have something and get more of it when things change? I wonder? It really could be! Life might be quite complicated eh?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:

    If those statements truly represent what the PM’s thinking they explicitly contradict the undertakings given to the court in the recent Scottish case. That case has not been dismissed but simply held over. So if the PM does not comply the courts will be acting.
    Just more witterings from Cummings.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    moonshine said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really got it is not.
    Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
    Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.
    The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.

    It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all of a type on that list - boutiquey cocktail places. But they do them very well here. The transformation of the old chinatown district is something to behold.
    CORRECTION

    The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*

    The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.

    How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.

    I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory

    http://www.goatisland.com.au/

    For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    5. So we'll go from the Labour party not wanting an election to wanting one, whilst the Conservative party will go from wanting one to not. So we won't get one.

    It's possible that there will be the votes for a Vote of No Confidence, leading to an election.

    I also think that the entirety of the Johnson/Cummings strategy has been directed towards an early general election and that they will back themselves to win the election campaign.

    I expect a general election date to be announced very soon after 31st October has passed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    Byronic said:


    CORRECTION

    The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*

    The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.

    How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.

    I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory

    http://www.goatisland.com.au/

    For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.

    I can see why they'd whisk you there for a photo shoot.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,679
    timmo said:

    moonshine said:

    Stocky said:

    .

    ...This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
    In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.

    Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
    They will.struggle as they are entirely set up to take on the Tories only
    Labour can be considered to be two distinct tribes:
    - socially conservative working class, nationalist, understandably looking after their own interests through unionisation, benefits etc. Geography Northern.
    - socially liberal, economically left wing (with a conscience) , internationalist, well educated and relatively well off. Geography Southern.

    Eventually something has to give. But I don't think the LibDems will replace the Labour party.

    LibDems are socially liberal and internationalist and won't appeal to Labour working class who increasingly will look to the Brexit Party.

    The problem the LibDems have is their economic policy which has been the source of great division within the party (Orange Bookers etc). More right wing economic policies will appeal to socially liberal internationalist Tories. More left wing will appeal to the socially liberal internationalist Labourists.

    I think the best approach for the LibDems is to be neither economically left nor right wing but pragmatic "what works best in the circumstances" and focus on social liberalism, greenery and an open international outlook.

    The Labour party will naturally wither as it loses from both its tribes.
    The Tory party will also diminish as it loses its socially liberal internationalist wing but could merge with the Brexit party (some would say that's already in progress) to be a right wing populist party.

    The LibDems is a centrist party economically, but socially liberal, green and internationalist and appealing to the growing middle classes and the young. It isn't a replacement for the Labour Party. It has its own identity and destiny.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.

    The *only* reason it’s being held is because Saturday’s date is the one in the Benn Act.
    No. That's the deadline. It would be held because the ( a ) the Government has chosen to go to the wire ( b ) the Government wants to transact relavent business to the Benn Act deadline. If ( b ) doesn't apply the sitting isn't needed and Labour need not vote to hold it. There is also no reason to reward ( a ).
    The only date available for the EU to agree a deal was at the summit which concludes on Thursday night. Parliament, knowing this when they passed the Benn Act, voted to mandate the extension if the deal wasn’t agreed by themselves before Saturday. Hence we sit on Saturday to debate it. If instead, they’d specified next Tuesday, there would be no need for the Saturday sitting.
    But the Benn Act is a response to the 31st October No Deal threat. Which is arbitary government policy. There is no legal crisis requiring a Saturday sitting beyond one flowing from the Government's unilateral policy decisions. There is no reason why Labour need get sucked into the Government's chaos if they don't want to.
    You are recommending - once again - the legislature interfering in the executive's negotiation strategy

    That's not their constitutional role
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 494
    Byronic said:

    moonshine said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really got it is not.
    .
    The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.

    It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all of a type on that list - boutiquey cocktail places. But they do them very well here. The transformation of the old chinatown district is something to behold.
    CORRECTION

    The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*

    The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.

    How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.

    I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory

    http://www.goatisland.com.au/

    For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
    I don't know that one but generally I am agreed.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 494
    moonshine said:

    Byronic said:

    moonshine said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    moonshine said:

    nichomar said:

    kamski said:

    Stocky said:

    eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

    Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

    Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may
    I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.
    Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?
    That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.
    I don't really got it is not.
    .
    The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.

    It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all of a type on that list - boutiquey cocktail places. But they do them very well here. The transformation of the old chinatown district is something to behold.
    CORRECTION

    The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*

    The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.

    How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.

    I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory

    http://www.goatisland.com.au/

    For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
    I don't know that one but generally I am agreed.
    Hmm quoting is harder on this website than it should be!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197

    Am I right this morning in thinking that:

    1. We appear to be miles from any deal being agreed. In fact, its almost as though we've took TM's deal and binned it and are starting again from scratch.
    2. Even if we get some deal, its not guaranteed Parliament would back it (so what then?).
    3. We're therefore headed for an extension, probably a long one?
    4. At that point, I suspect BXP will start to erode into Conservative support, especially if its a long extension.
    5. So we'll go from the Labour party not wanting an election to wanting one, whilst the Conservative party will go from wanting one to not. So we won't get one.
    6. We'll zombie onwards to the next deadline which will be kicked again, as nothing will be resolved.

    Absolute hard end date probably isn't until late July 2022 when the next election MUST be held (maybe May 2022 if FTPA isn't repealed).
    I wonder if Parliament will try to go back to seven year terms?

    *sigh*

    I disagree with virtually all of that assessment.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,026
    The "logic" of what some Tories have been saying over the last few days is that they're very close to a deal, but if the deal's not ready till 1st November, we're going to leave the EU on 31st October without it.. Yeah right. Politicians treating us like idiots as usual.
  • Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
    He's talking about Brexit, not the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:



    No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).

    Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.

    I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
    They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.

    Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
    I only hope Nick wasn't typing this post with a straight face or does he really think we're that stupid.

    Such a stance is of course totally understandable politically but morally disingenuous and illogical to boot.

    This is the WA and there is all to play for in the PD. If Labour votes through the WA, agrees to an election, win a thumping majority (which they will, right?), then they can put in as many anti-Singaporean clauses and safeguards as they want.
    We've had this argument a million times, but Nick is absolutely right. Unless the Tories can guarantee that they will not use Brexit as a pretext for deregulation (which I doubt they can because that is the whole point of it) then no Labour MP should touch it with a barge poll. Labour's job isn't to help the Tories fulfill their Thatcherite wank fantasies when they don't have the numbers themselves.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 494

    Am I right this morning in thinking that:

    1. We appear to be miles from any deal being agreed. In fact, its almost as though we've took TM's deal and binned it and are starting again from scratch.
    2. Even if we get some deal, its not guaranteed Parliament would back it (so what then?).
    3. We're therefore headed for an extension, probably a long one?
    4. At that point, I suspect BXP will start to erode into Conservative support, especially if its a long extension.
    5. So we'll go from the Labour party not wanting an election to wanting one, whilst the Conservative party will go from wanting one to not. So we won't get one.
    6. We'll zombie onwards to the next deadline which will be kicked again, as nothing will be resolved.

    Absolute hard end date probably isn't until late July 2022 when the next election MUST be held (maybe May 2022 if FTPA isn't repealed).
    I wonder if Parliament will try to go back to seven year terms?

    *sigh*

    I disagree with virtually all of that assessment.
    Remarkable how there's still no consensus at all on where we're likely to head this time in a week or two. A total bifurcation in predictions...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    Barnesian said:

    timmo said:

    moonshine said:

    Stocky said:

    .

    ...This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
    In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.

    Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
    They will.struggle as they are entirely set up to take on the Tories only
    Labour can be considered to be two distinct tribes:
    - socially conservative working class, nationalist, understandably looking after their own interests through unionisation, benefits etc. Geography Northern.
    - socially liberal, economically left wing (with a conscience) , internationalist, well educated and relatively well off. Geography Southern.

    Eventually something has to give. But I don't think the LibDems will replace the Labour party.

    LibDems are socially liberal and internationalist and won't appeal to Labour working class who increasingly will look to the Brexit Party.

    The problem the LibDems have is their economic policy which has been the source of great division within the party (Orange Bookers etc). More right wing economic policies will appeal to socially liberal internationalist Tories. More left wing will appeal to the socially liberal internationalist Labourists.

    I think the best approach for the LibDems is to be neither economically left nor right wing but pragmatic "what works best in the circumstances" and focus on social liberalism, greenery and an open international outlook.

    The Labour party will naturally wither as it loses from both its tribes.
    The Tory party will also diminish as it loses its socially liberal internationalist wing but could merge with the Brexit party (some would say that's already in progress) to be a right wing populist party.

    The LibDems is a centrist party economically, but socially liberal, green and internationalist and appealing to the growing middle classes and the young. It isn't a replacement for the Labour Party. It has its own identity and destiny.
    Labour won't disappear but it could end up third behind the Tories and LDs if it sticks with Corbynism in a decade or so
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    Nigelb said:
    Fantastic news, a great example of using an international tournament to boost the sport in a second-tier nation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    edited October 2019

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:



    No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).

    Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.

    I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
    They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.

    Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
    I only hope Nick wasn't typing this post with a straight face or does he really think we're that stupid.

    Such a stance is of course totally understandable politically but morally disingenuous and illogical to boot.

    This is the WA and there is all to play for in the PD. If Labour votes through the WA, agrees to an election, win a thumping majority (which they will, right?), then they can put in as many anti-Singaporean clauses and safeguards as they want.
    We've had this argument a million times, but Nick is absolutely right. Unless the Tories can guarantee that they will not use Brexit as a pretext for deregulation (which I doubt they can because that is the whole point of it) then no Labour MP should touch it with a barge poll. Labour's job isn't to help the Tories fulfill their Thatcherite wank fantasies when they don't have the numbers themselves.
    I said we'd never leave.

    God alone knows what will follow Boris from the Right if we don't though.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:
    Fantastic news, a great example of using an international tournament to boost the sport in a second-tier nation.
    Feels a bit ambitious to me, but I hope they do it. We should invite them into the 6N tomorrow.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    Byronic said:


    CORRECTION

    ...

    I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory

    http://www.goatisland.com.au/

    For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.

    Mad drunken owner with gun...

    The beer would have to be exceptional.

  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,017

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Says the man who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement about a man who voted for it three times.
    Doesn't Johnson need every vote on Saturday? Why is he allowing Cabinet out at all this week. Keep them locked in a cupboard.
    I'm not sure a cabinet would fit in a cupboard; surely the other way round?
  • Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.

    Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.

This discussion has been closed.