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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,950
    Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,450
    edited October 2019

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just wants to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108

    A bad deal is better than no deal. I thought it with May's one. I think now with something that is objectively worse. The key thing now is the final FTA. Let's hope we get one that is desiged for British citizens and British businesses, not for US corporations.

    A pity the three years have been wasted on discussing a fallback plan.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    It would of course be quite delicious if it were Varadkar and Ireland that were to say to the DUP "fuck you and fuck the horse you rode in on - no more extensions."
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    And the even more ridiculous thing about Farage's position is that there is no commitment to a Level Playing Field in the WA. It just says one will be needed for a future FTA. So he could easily support us getting out the EU, getting control over money, immigration, laws, regulations, farms, fisheries and trade laws, but oppose the next bit.

    Farage is a complete hack. He clearly does not give a damn about Brexit, outside of how it can help him get power.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    RobD said:

    A bad deal is better than no deal. I thought it with May's one. I think now with something that is objectively worse. The key thing now is the final FTA. Let's hope we get one that is desiged for British citizens and British businesses, not for US corporations.

    A pity the three years have been wasted on discussing a fallback plan.
    Blame Gove for that. It should have Boris doing this from day one, not May.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If we take MV3 as the starting point then I think the deal just passes with all the ERG on-board even without the DUP.

    AGAINST DEAL - Possible that some of the 21 who voted for MV3 will vote against Johnson. I think most of these prefer a deal to any other option, so will still vote for. Can Amber Rudd manage another volte-face to go through the same lobby as Johnson on this deal? Probably. It would be surprising if there weren't a few ERG holdouts, though. The Brecon & Radnorshire by-election moves one vote against the deal too.

    FOR DEAL - Now that the level playing field provisions are back in, albeit in the political declaration, the way is open for more Labour Leaver support. Not that much more, though. Would be surprised to see more than a handful extra MPs. It does look like much of the ERG will swing behind the deal.

    WILDCARD - What does Theresa May think about the border in the Irish Sea [North Channel]? She said no British PM could support one, but now that she is merely a backbench MP might she do so? I doubt she will speak in Saturday's debate, but if she did it could be an explosive intervention if she were to speak against the deal.

    I think this goes down to the wire and it will be a single figure majority either way.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    Well said. The sooner Farage's gravy train comes to a halt the better.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,200

    Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
    An increase of 500% of not a lot is still not a lot.

    And if any complacency sets in, they will surprise.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019

    Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
    You're right that it would surprise me.
    But I know Wales. Nationalism doesn't get a look in. Jingoism and petty racism is fine, but never Welsh nationalism.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,200

    It would of course be quite delicious if it were Varadkar and Ireland that were to say to the DUP "fuck you and fuck the horse you rode in on - no more extensions."

    Maybe the EU should make it a secret ballot!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The DUPs protestations about the GFA dont hold up, the Irish wouldn't torpedo it any more than we would. It's all about mot having a veto. They shouldn't, it's a disgraceful idea
  • Boris engaging constructively with the EU and obtaining a deal, committed to Brexit.
    All opposition seeking to frustrate Brexit.
    Opposition walking into a GE elephant trap of gargantuan proportions

    This is basically what should be gnawing on the minds of pretty much everyone in the HoC who might vote against.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.

    While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.

    Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.

    I thought that the UK wide backstop was a bit of a masterstroke that would be helpful even if we didn't want to use it. But these are details. What we need is a deal that can pass the Commons. If this is it, hurrah! The fact that better deals should have passed is irrelevant.
    This deal isn't going to pass - the numbers aren't there.

    It can however pass if Boris accepts a referendum and I suspect he might.
    I think its too early to say the numbers aren't there. We have the 21, many but not all of whom wanted a deal, we have Stephen Kinnock's Labour faction that wants a deal, we have the DUP probably opposing, we have more odds and sods in this dysfunctional Parliament than we have had in my lifetime. I really don't know how to call it.
    Its really not too early. An additional 30-40 votes are needed depending how many recant from last time. Not many more than that are even amenable so you need nearly all of them.

    nico67 said:

    Not sure the EU will go for no extension and it’s either this deal or no deal .

    Whilst some want this over with I think they’re more likely to offer either a technical extension or a longer one but make it final .

    Sky already reporting multiple EU leaders accept Boris argument for no further extensions
    That would be a game changer if true. It's also the only chance any deal has of passing sans referendum.

    Ahem.

    It's almost like I wargamed it.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,434


    I think it depends on if no or only short extension intimated.....

    Yeah - my assumption is if an extension (excluding short technical extension) is refused today, the MV passes on Saturday.

    Would the EU really want to force matters like that though?
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    edited October 2019
    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

  • I think this goes down to the wire and it will be a single figure majority either way.

    Be hilarious if it's a tie.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,599
    GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    If it hadn’t been for Farage there’d have been no referendum, and the sleepy, flabby centrism of Cameron, Miliband or Clegg would have been our non choices for decades.

    But I have to say I am disappointed he can’t bring himself to say well done, and move on here. Winning the referendum was not worth it if we don’t ever leave. If he wants to influence the way the country is run afterwards he can stand for election again.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,433
    GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just wants to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    In a way it's rather touching that there are still people around who are surprised when politicians favour their own interests rather than their declared "principles".
  • Ford dropped to the bench and no Cokanasiga (even on the bench) for game against the convicts.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/50067955

    I can't believe we don't have Cokanasiga on the bench, he is a one man wrecking ball.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,521
    edited October 2019

    Andrew said:


    Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard

    My guesstimates came up with similar numbers, maybe a touch higher on ex-Tories, but in the 300-305 bucket overall atm ………. plus any that come from Mr Kinnock's chunk, although hunch is that's zero.

    I think it depends on if no or only short extension intimated.....
    He ought to get a min 5 labour/mps for a deal. Letwin on board is a big win
    Ofher than Hoey, I don’t think any leaver Labour MPs will vote for this deal if Corbyn makes good on his plan to 3-line whip it. A few might come down with a convenient bout of the flu but that’s it.

    The vote will be close, but I don’t think Boris has the numbers unless he can make the DUP change their minds. Which if he does he’ll follow up with parting the Red Sea and feeding the five thousand.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,450

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    Well said. The sooner Farage's gravy train comes to a halt the better.
    Will be interesting to see of there's a split in the Brexit Party. Wouldn't be susprised if some of the more sensible BXP members defy Farage and come out for the deal.
  • Any of the former 21 MPs who wants back in the party and votes for the deal should be given the whip back.

    Any who vote it down or vote for a referendum the party should immediately commence selecting a new candidate for their seat.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    The DUPs protestations about the GFA dont hold up, the Irish wouldn't torpedo it any more than we would. It's all about mot having a veto. They shouldn't, it's a disgraceful idea

    And if they can get a majority at Stormont they effectively will have a veto. Sinn Fein would have to collapse the assembly to stop it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,165
    Good piece on why leftist prefer Sanders to Warren, and why identity politics doesn't mean voting for someone of your ethnic group:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/squad-bernie-sanders-progressive-2020
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,240
    Rebel amendment passed to open up debate on Saturday.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    rpjs said:

    Andrew said:


    Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard

    My guesstimates came up with similar numbers, maybe a touch higher on ex-Tories, but in the 300-305 bucket overall atm ………. plus any that come from Mr Kinnock's chunk, although hunch is that's zero.

    I think it depends on if no or only short extension intimated.....
    He ought to get a min 5 labour/mps for a deal. Letwin on board is a big win
    Ofher than Hoey, I don’t think any leaver Labour MPs will vote for this deal if Corbyn makes good on his plan to 3-line whip it. A few might come down with a convenient bout of the flu but that’s it.

    The vote will be close, but I don’t think Boris has the numbers unless he can make the DUP change their minds. Which if he does he’ll follow up with parting the Red Sea and feeding the five thousand.
    Am I right in saying that when it's a 3-line whip, it doesn't matter whether you oppose the party or abstain, a tonne of bricks is coming down on you anyway?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,521


    I think this goes down to the wire and it will be a single figure majority either way.

    Be hilarious if it's a tie.
    WWJ(ohn)D?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    rpjs said:

    Andrew said:


    Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard

    My guesstimates came up with similar numbers, maybe a touch higher on ex-Tories, but in the 300-305 bucket overall atm ………. plus any that come from Mr Kinnock's chunk, although hunch is that's zero.

    I think it depends on if no or only short extension intimated.....
    He ought to get a min 5 labour/mps for a deal. Letwin on board is a big win
    Ofher than Hoey, I don’t think any leaver Labour MPs will vote for this deal if Corbyn makes good on his plan to 3-line whip it. A few might come down with a convenient bout of the flu but that’s it.

    The vote will be close, but I don’t think Boris has the numbers unless he can make the DUP change their minds. Which if he does he’ll follow up with parting the Red Sea and feeding the five thousand.
    If the DUP don't support it then Hoey certainly won't vote for it.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
    You're right that it would surprise me.
    But I know Wales. Nationalism doesn't get a look in. Jingoism and petty racism is fine, but never Welsh nationalism.
    Wales has its own local pride and identity. But it is fundamentally politically similar to the Midlands and North of England. Northern Ireland and Scotland have very different politics.
  • isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    If it hadn’t been for Farage there’d have been no referendum, and the sleepy, flabby centrism of Cameron, Miliband or Clegg would have been our non choices for decades.

    But I have to say I am disappointed he can’t bring himself to say well done, and move on here. Winning the referendum was not worth it if we don’t ever leave. If he wants to influence the way the country is run afterwards he can stand for election again.
    His previous attempts at standing for election may have convinced him this is his last chance at influencing the way the country is run.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    rpjs said:

    Andrew said:


    Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard

    My guesstimates came up with similar numbers, maybe a touch higher on ex-Tories, but in the 300-305 bucket overall atm ………. plus any that come from Mr Kinnock's chunk, although hunch is that's zero.

    I think it depends on if no or only short extension intimated.....
    He ought to get a min 5 labour/mps for a deal. Letwin on board is a big win
    Ofher than Hoey, I don’t think any leaver Labour MPs will vote for this deal if Corbyn makes good on his plan to 3-line whip it. A few might come down with a convenient bout of the flu but that’s it.

    The vote will be close, but I don’t think Boris has the numbers unless he can make the DUP change their minds. Which if he does he’ll follow up with parting the Red Sea and feeding the five thousand.
    Smeeth has already said yes. Others may follow.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,433
    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    I thought the proposal was for NI not technically to remain in the customs union.
  • BoJo and Juncker trying to sell it, live on Sky/BBC News.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,521
    Noo said:

    rpjs said:

    Andrew said:


    Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard

    My guesstimates came up with similar numbers, maybe a touch higher on ex-Tories, but in the 300-305 bucket overall atm ………. plus any that come from Mr Kinnock's chunk, although hunch is that's zero.

    I think it depends on if no or only short extension intimated.....
    He ought to get a min 5 labour/mps for a deal. Letwin on board is a big win
    Ofher than Hoey, I don’t think any leaver Labour MPs will vote for this deal if Corbyn makes good on his plan to 3-line whip it. A few might come down with a convenient bout of the flu but that’s it.

    The vote will be close, but I don’t think Boris has the numbers unless he can make the DUP change their minds. Which if he does he’ll follow up with parting the Red Sea and feeding the five thousand.
    Am I right in saying that when it's a 3-line whip, it doesn't matter whether you oppose the party or abstain, a tonne of bricks is coming down on you anyway?
    I think so, which is why I think they’d only abstain by not attending claiming illness, or being stuck in the loo of their train down from London or something.

    Hilarity if the XR protestors manage to stop any MPs from attending!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,450

    Rebel amendment passed to open up debate on Saturday.

    So much for the Opposition refusing to allow the Saturday Sitting! ;)
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    The current A50 deadline is 11pm GMT, 31 Oct.

    What time on that day is John Bercow due to retire from the Speaker's chair?

    I do like a good bit of drama.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    Well said. The sooner Farage's gravy train comes to a halt the better.
    Really don't think Boris needs to worry about Farage. Tory-minded Leave voters will stick with Boris who was the face of the Leave campaign. Brexit Party more likely to hurt Labour in the marginals insofar as they have any effect at all.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 31,308
    edited October 2019
    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,812
    Would Labour really sack MPs from Brexit voting areas like Rother Valley, Stoke on Trent and Grimsby just before a potential election?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,450

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    If true that certainly adds a different slant to Saturday's events.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Artist said:

    Would Labour really sack MPs from Brexit voting areas like Rother Valley, Stoke on Trent and Grimsby just before a potential election?

    The leadership wouldn't. Nick Palmer seems to think that the membership would.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,434

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time


    Unfortunately, it's probably quite a step from stating you don't want any more extensions, to actively refusing one with all the resulting consequences.

    Personally, I've been wanting that situation for a while though - forces Parliament to stop playing silly games and actually make a choice.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
    You're right that it would surprise me.
    But I know Wales. Nationalism doesn't get a look in. Jingoism and petty racism is fine, but never Welsh nationalism.
    Wales has its own local pride and identity. But it is fundamentally politically similar to the Midlands and North of England. Northern Ireland and Scotland have very different politics.
    Yes, that's pretty much the line of my thinking. Scotland feels to me like another country, Wales feels like a sad region of England with its own rugby side.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    GIN1138 said:

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    If true that certainly adds a different slant to Saturday's events.
    Will Jolyon Maugham take Junker to the European Court :D ?!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,950

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Has he taken over from the Queen?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,521
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    The DUPs protestations about the GFA dont hold up, the Irish wouldn't torpedo it any more than we would. It's all about mot having a veto. They shouldn't, it's a disgraceful idea

    And if they can get a majority at Stormont they effectively will have a veto. Sinn Fein would have to collapse the assembly to stop it.
    But the Stormont voting system is proportional and designed to include a wide range of parties. A unionist majority is possible, but unlikely. A DUP majority isn’t.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    I really don't think Farage is going to make much hey with his opposition among Leavers. He can't fight it on immigration, money, farming, fishing, trade deals, regulation or laws.

    He only has two arguments: Northern Ireland and level playing field. Most don't care about Northern Ireland and anyway they get to participate in most aspects, even trade deals. And the level playing field is not even committed to - it is just needed for a FTA. Just like it was for Japan and Canada. Plus Leavers across the North, Wales and Midlands presumably quite like their holiday allowances.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,283

    RobD said:

    A bad deal is better than no deal. I thought it with May's one. I think now with something that is objectively worse. The key thing now is the final FTA. Let's hope we get one that is desiged for British citizens and British businesses, not for US corporations.

    A pity the three years have been wasted on discussing a fallback plan.
    Blame Gove for that. It should have Boris doing this from day one, not May.
    Under Bozo it would probably have blown up earlier.

    Don’t underestimate how important the experience of the past three years has been in shaping attitudes now. In particular the ERG nuts have had the salutary experience of nearly being responsible for sinking their own project.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816

    Artist said:

    Would Labour really sack MPs from Brexit voting areas like Rother Valley, Stoke on Trent and Grimsby just before a potential election?

    The leadership wouldn't. Nick Palmer seems to think that the membership would.
    Best of luck to Labour holding Rother Valley if they sack Barron there.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    rpjs said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The DUPs protestations about the GFA dont hold up, the Irish wouldn't torpedo it any more than we would. It's all about mot having a veto. They shouldn't, it's a disgraceful idea

    And if they can get a majority at Stormont they effectively will have a veto. Sinn Fein would have to collapse the assembly to stop it.
    But the Stormont voting system is proportional and designed to include a wide range of parties. A unionist majority is possible, but unlike. A DUP majority isn’t.
    But the UUP have the same position as them, so could join them in forcing an exit.
  • So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,240
    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
    You're right that it would surprise me.
    But I know Wales. Nationalism doesn't get a look in. Jingoism and petty racism is fine, but never Welsh nationalism.
    Wales has its own local pride and identity. But it is fundamentally politically similar to the Midlands and North of England. Northern Ireland and Scotland have very different politics.
    Most of the problem for Welshness (language, identity and nationalism) is that it is as split between north and south as the English are. People in Wrexham are proud enough of their area (and may overlay that on to "being Welsh"), but would look to Liverpool, Manchester and Chester before Cardiff as a regional centre.
    And my impression is that Cardiff attitudes can be a bit "there be dragons" once you're beyond the southern third.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.

    "The battle to rejoin starts here!"

    "You, er, got any other policies?"

    "Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    If true that certainly adds a different slant to Saturday's events.
    Will Jolyon Maugham take Junker to the European Court :D ?!
    There is some uncertainty around here about whether he lodged his latest petition seeking to stop Parliament debating the deal. It seemed seriously ill conceived.

    Oh lord, he has https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50076186
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Chris said:

    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    I thought the proposal was for NI not technically to remain in the customs union.
    Correct.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    Well said. The sooner Farage's gravy train comes to a halt the better.
    Really don't think Boris needs to worry about Farage. Tory-minded Leave voters will stick with Boris who was the face of the Leave campaign. Brexit Party more likely to hurt Labour in the marginals insofar as they have any effect at all.
    Agreed. Boris is trusted in a way May never was.
  • So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    Logical and not impossible
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    If true that certainly adds a different slant to Saturday's events.
    Will Jolyon Maugham take Junker to the European Court :D ?!
    There is some uncertainty around here about whether he lodged his latest petition seeking to stop Parliament debating the deal. It seemed seriously ill conceived.
    Looks like he's still at it -- https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-50076186
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    Chris said:

    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    I thought the proposal was for NI not technically to remain in the customs union.
    The British government would have to impose EU customs rules on goods entering NI that might end up in RoI.

    They wouldn't have to on goods entering GB.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 906

    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
    You're right that it would surprise me.
    But I know Wales. Nationalism doesn't get a look in. Jingoism and petty racism is fine, but never Welsh nationalism.
    Wales has its own local pride and identity. But it is fundamentally politically similar to the Midlands and North of England. Northern Ireland and Scotland have very different politics.
    Most of the problem for Welshness (language, identity and nationalism) is that it is as split between north and south as the English are. People in Wrexham are proud enough of their area (and may overlay that on to "being Welsh"), but would look to Liverpool, Manchester and Chester before Cardiff as a regional centre.
    And my impression is that Cardiff attitudes can be a bit "there be dragons" once you're beyond the southern third.
    when I lived down there (as an outsider) it wasn't that the north was denigrated it was just that it was ignored. (just like in england then)
  • isamisam Posts: 30,599

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    If it hadn’t been for Farage there’d have been no referendum, and the sleepy, flabby centrism of Cameron, Miliband or Clegg would have been our non choices for decades.

    But I have to say I am disappointed he can’t bring himself to say well done, and move on here. Winning the referendum was not worth it if we don’t ever leave. If he wants to influence the way the country is run afterwards he can stand for election again.
    His previous attempts at standing for election may have convinced him this is his last chance at influencing the way the country is run.
    I would have thought he'd stand a better chance of being elected by accepting the deal and standing as the candidate who ensures there's no backtracking. Standing for No Deal when a deal has been agreed will be unpopular in my opinion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,283
    We can put John Mann in the yes column.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Assuming the ERG are on board, the dynamic also changes. Remainers will be deprived of their argument "it was hardcore Leaver purists that sank Brexit". All the media attention and narrative will be on Labour being the ones that thwarted it. Just as they did with No Deal and May's Deal.

    Combined with Farage's best arguments being taken away from him, Johnson will win big on an election focused on Brexit. He has gone from being the extremist to being the adult in the room.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    If true that certainly adds a different slant to Saturday's events.
    Will Jolyon Maugham take Junker to the European Court :D ?!
    There is some uncertainty around here about whether he lodged his latest petition seeking to stop Parliament debating the deal. It seemed seriously ill conceived.
    Looks like he's still at it -- https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-50076186
    Oh Lord give us Parliamentary sovereignty but not just yet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,265

    Ford dropped to the bench and no Cokanasiga (even on the bench) for game against the convicts.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/50067955

    I can't believe we don't have Cokanasiga on the bench, he is a one man wrecking ball.

    Can't help thinking that's two mistakes, but we'll see.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,040
    Not sure about the battles of the last three years being re-fought every Olympics by one part of the UK. Thankfully it's a part where the main protagonists are noted for their collegiate approach and rejection of sectarianism.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,540

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    Logical and not impossible
    Nope. Impossible to get that many labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    If true that certainly adds a different slant to Saturday's events.
    Will Jolyon Maugham take Junker to the European Court :D ?!
    There is some uncertainty around here about whether he lodged his latest petition seeking to stop Parliament debating the deal. It seemed seriously ill conceived.
    Looks like he's still at it -- https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-50076186
    Oh Lord give us Parliamentary sovereignty but not just yet.
    Wait, are you telling me Parliament isn't current fully sovereign? :open_mouth:

    I think I need to lie down.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,434
    Ronnie Campbell says he's likely to vote yes.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,599

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.

    "The battle to rejoin starts here!"

    "You, er, got any other policies?"

    "Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
    Well, I said this last week, but the LDemmers don't think so...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,950
    isam said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    If it hadn’t been for Farage there’d have been no referendum, and the sleepy, flabby centrism of Cameron, Miliband or Clegg would have been our non choices for decades.

    But I have to say I am disappointed he can’t bring himself to say well done, and move on here. Winning the referendum was not worth it if we don’t ever leave. If he wants to influence the way the country is run afterwards he can stand for election again.
    His previous attempts at standing for election may have convinced him this is his last chance at influencing the way the country is run.
    I would have thought he'd stand a better chance of being elected by accepting the deal and standing as the candidate who ensures there's no backtracking. Standing for No Deal when a deal has been agreed will be unpopular in my opinion.
    How many people think free movement will end on November 1st?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,450
    edited October 2019

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,265

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.

    "The battle to rejoin starts here!"

    "You, er, got any other policies?"

    "Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
    Their electoral argument is quite clear.
    A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
  • Nigelb said:

    Ford dropped to the bench and no Cokanasiga (even on the bench) for game against the convicts.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/50067955

    I can't believe we don't have Cokanasiga on the bench, he is a one man wrecking ball.

    Can't help thinking that's two mistakes, but we'll see.
    I am not a massive fan of Ford, but Slade has only played part of a game and got injured. And I would have Coskanasiga in the squad every time, as players start tiring and we would get to send on a 6ft5 19 stone monster that runs like the wind.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Gabs2 said:

    rpjs said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The DUPs protestations about the GFA dont hold up, the Irish wouldn't torpedo it any more than we would. It's all about mot having a veto. They shouldn't, it's a disgraceful idea

    And if they can get a majority at Stormont they effectively will have a veto. Sinn Fein would have to collapse the assembly to stop it.
    But the Stormont voting system is proportional and designed to include a wide range of parties. A unionist majority is possible, but unlike. A DUP majority isn’t.
    But the UUP have the same position as them, so could join them in forcing an exit.
    There are 90 seats in the NI Assembly. At present these are split as:

    Unionist (DUP+UUP+TUV+Ind) = 40
    Nationalist (SF+SDLP) = 39
    Other (All+Grn+PBP) = 11

    That looks like a fairly firm majority in favour of continuing the arrangements. Amusingly, if we assume that all Unionists will vote against the arrangements, and everyone else will vote for them, then the 50:40 split is, in percentage terms 55.6%:44.4% which is very close to the referendum result in NI, which was 55.8%:44.2%

    Echoes everywhere.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 906
    IanB2 said:

    We can put John Mann in the yes column.

    That's because he's leaving parliament at the next election. how many of the other people exiting the arena are likely to vote the same way?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,433
    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    I can't see anything wrong with that argument.

    The Benn Act:
    "a Minister of the Crown has laid before each House of Parliament a statement that the United Kingdom has concluded an agreement with the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union and a copy of the agreement and—
    (a) the agreement has been approved by resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown"

    Article 50(2):
    "It [the agreement] shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."
  • So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    Logical and not impossible
    It is do-able, but pretty tight.

    I will, however, laugh my arse off if Rory Stewart and Dominic Grieve end up back in the Tory Party, and Francois gets chucked out.

    Perhaps this is Boris' revenge, as Francois beat him to the nomination for PPC for Wickford all those years ago. Talk about a long game.
  • kle4 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    Logical and not impossible
    Nope. Impossible to get that many labour.
    You have been consistent in your view but I do not see it as impossible
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."

    Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,880
    Odds on a Tory GE majority have shortened a lot in last couple of hours.
  • Nigelb said:

    Ford dropped to the bench and no Cokanasiga (even on the bench) for game against the convicts.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/50067955

    I can't believe we don't have Cokanasiga on the bench, he is a one man wrecking ball.

    Can't help thinking that's two mistakes, but we'll see.
    Aussie Eddie Jones showing where his true loyalties lie.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,433

    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."

    Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
    I think that's just a fantasy.
  • Gabs2 said:

    rpjs said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The DUPs protestations about the GFA dont hold up, the Irish wouldn't torpedo it any more than we would. It's all about mot having a veto. They shouldn't, it's a disgraceful idea

    And if they can get a majority at Stormont they effectively will have a veto. Sinn Fein would have to collapse the assembly to stop it.
    But the Stormont voting system is proportional and designed to include a wide range of parties. A unionist majority is possible, but unlike. A DUP majority isn’t.
    But the UUP have the same position as them, so could join them in forcing an exit.
    46 seats needed for a majority, DUP + UUP + TUV currently 39.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    If it hadn’t been for Farage there’d have been no referendum, and the sleepy, flabby centrism of Cameron, Miliband or Clegg would have been our non choices for decades.

    But I have to say I am disappointed he can’t bring himself to say well done, and move on here. Winning the referendum was not worth it if we don’t ever leave. If he wants to influence the way the country is run afterwards he can stand for election again.
    His previous attempts at standing for election may have convinced him this is his last chance at influencing the way the country is run.
    I would have thought he'd stand a better chance of being elected by accepting the deal and standing as the candidate who ensures there's no backtracking. Standing for No Deal when a deal has been agreed will be unpopular in my opinion.
    How many people think free movement will end on November 1st?
    Not during the transistion
  • Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
    I do always love these posts. It's always break away from the UK, when what they really mean is "We hate the English".

    Years ago I read an alternative history (For All Time if you're interested), where ENGLAND left the Union first, in the 1960s.
    Wales, Scotland and NI stayed together as the rump UK.

    I'm a staunch unionist, but sometimes I do wonder if that might be an answer to stop all the whinging.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,599

    isam said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.

    Farage seems to be saying the whole thing should be torpedoed just because of what's in the poltical declaration (which is non-binding and subject to change and negotaitation in the FTA)

    Final proof that Farage is a chancer and just want to stay on the EU gravy train and posture.
    If it hadn’t been for Farage there’d have been no referendum, and the sleepy, flabby centrism of Cameron, Miliband or Clegg would have been our non choices for decades.

    But I have to say I am disappointed he can’t bring himself to say well done, and move on here. Winning the referendum was not worth it if we don’t ever leave. If he wants to influence the way the country is run afterwards he can stand for election again.
    His previous attempts at standing for election may have convinced him this is his last chance at influencing the way the country is run.
    I would have thought he'd stand a better chance of being elected by accepting the deal and standing as the candidate who ensures there's no backtracking. Standing for No Deal when a deal has been agreed will be unpopular in my opinion.
    How many people think free movement will end on November 1st?
    I don't care
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    If true that certainly adds a different slant to Saturday's events.
    Will Jolyon Maugham take Junker to the European Court :D ?!
    There is some uncertainty around here about whether he lodged his latest petition seeking to stop Parliament debating the deal. It seemed seriously ill conceived.
    Looks like he's still at it -- https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-50076186
    Yep you can get the petition here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/g3rfhm0kg9f3kjy/Unsigned Petition as lodged .pdf?dl=0

    The essential premise is that this deal contravenes s55 of the cross border Act which prevents the UK government from interfering with the integrity of the UK customs union. It is probably true that this deal would require that piece of legislation to be amended but Parliament can do that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Nigelb said:

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.

    "The battle to rejoin starts here!"

    "You, er, got any other policies?"

    "Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
    Their electoral argument is quite clear.
    A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
    Their "alternative" has been to over-ride the 17.4m who voted for Brexit.

    How very Liberal, how very Democratic.....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,818
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
    Getting in position to blame the EU if the deal fails?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,450
    Chris said:

    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."

    Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
    I think that's just a fantasy.
    Maybe. But Juncker leaves on 31st and Ursula takes over on 1st.

    They do not want this shit show raining on Ursula's parade, IMO. So if they have to play tough with Parliament to get this deal over the line they might just do it...
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,521
    GIN1138 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
    Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Yes, and it will get easier over time. Once the Union becomes contingent and transactional for one part who will really ' die in a ditch ' for Scotland ? Etc etc. I'm confident Nicola Sturgeon 8s looking at the detail of the ' frontstop ' with a satisfied smile.

    I started my Kubler-Ross process for my Britishness on 24/6/16 and that decision is paying off.
    For sure , given they crap on us at every opportunity as it is , it will only get worse. Sooner we are out the better.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,283

    Gabs2 said:

    rpjs said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The DUPs protestations about the GFA dont hold up, the Irish wouldn't torpedo it any more than we would. It's all about mot having a veto. They shouldn't, it's a disgraceful idea

    And if they can get a majority at Stormont they effectively will have a veto. Sinn Fein would have to collapse the assembly to stop it.
    But the Stormont voting system is proportional and designed to include a wide range of parties. A unionist majority is possible, but unlike. A DUP majority isn’t.
    But the UUP have the same position as them, so could join them in forcing an exit.
    There are 90 seats in the NI Assembly. At present these are split as:

    Unionist (DUP+UUP+TUV+Ind) = 40
    Nationalist (SF+SDLP) = 39
    Other (All+Grn+PBP) = 11

    That looks like a fairly firm majority in favour of continuing the arrangements. Amusingly, if we assume that all Unionists will vote against the arrangements, and everyone else will vote for them, then the 50:40 split is, in percentage terms 55.6%:44.4% which is very close to the referendum result in NI, which was 55.8%:44.2%

    Echoes everywhere.
    The clever part of the Bozo plan is to have come up with an exit route from the backstop (or its replacement) that in practice is very unlikely ever to be triggered. Of course, it may have been the EU’s idea, who knows?
  • The polls are going to be very interesting over the next few days
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Any of the former 21 MPs who wants back in the party and votes for the deal should be given the whip back.

    Any who vote it down or vote for a referendum the party should immediately commence selecting a new candidate for their seat.

    Trust is a key issue. Can they trust BJ to restore the whip? Some of them like Sandbach have lost more than the whip...
  • Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
    I do always love these posts. It's always break away from the UK, when what they really mean is "We hate the English".

    Years ago I read an alternative history (For All Time if you're interested), where ENGLAND left the Union first, in the 1960s.
    Wales, Scotland and NI stayed together as the rump UK.

    I'm a staunch unionist, but sometimes I do wonder if that might be an answer to stop all the whinging.
    I thought William Glenn was English. Is he one of those self hating types?
This discussion has been closed.