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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    rpjs said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
    Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.
    Are the votes there for revocation ?

    Boris' deal might not pass but you can count Hoey, the DUP and a good few others in amongst those that'll vote down revocation and the deal.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2019
    Has any ERG MP declared against the Johnson Deal yet, or are they all either for or keeping quiet at the moment?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Chris said:

    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."

    Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
    I think that's just a fantasy.
    Except, all the rest of the "fantasy" that I have been laying out here in detail for weeks on how we Brexit on 31st October has been slapping you upside the head...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,261

    Nigelb said:

    Ford dropped to the bench and no Cokanasiga (even on the bench) for game against the convicts.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/50067955

    I can't believe we don't have Cokanasiga on the bench, he is a one man wrecking ball.

    Can't help thinking that's two mistakes, but we'll see.
    I am not a massive fan of Ford, but Slade has only played part of a game and got injured. And I would have Coskanasiga in the squad every time, as players start tiring and we would get to send on a 6ft5 19 stone monster that runs like the wind.
    I am a fan of Ford, FWIW. He has a quick brain.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760
    Alistair said:

    I see Wings is now advocating that the SNP should support Boris Johnson.

    Full Zoomer to the max. Fucking brilliant analysis that is.

    Mental, whilst it may be best option to help independence, it could not be countenanced ever.
  • Andrew said:

    Ronnie Campbell says he's likely to vote yes.

    He's retiring so not bothered by reselection threats. One of the old working class awkward squad and friend of the Beast. If Dennis supports the deal that would make things interesting but can't see him going against Corbyn.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,448
    edited October 2019
    rkrkrk said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
    Getting in position to blame the EU of the deal fails?
    Not at all. The EU have moved quite a bit on this deal and are to be commended for doing so.

    If the deal fails it will because of this Rotten Parliament alone... ;)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,000
    GIN1138 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
    Or revoke
  • GIN1138 said:

    Chris said:

    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."

    Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
    I think that's just a fantasy.
    Maybe. But Juncker leaves on 31st and Ursula takes over on 1st.

    They do not want this shit show raining on Ursula's parade, IMO. So if they have to play tough with Parliament to get this deal over the line they might just do it...
    Ursula not certain to succeed Junckers
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,434
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:


    Are the votes there for revocation ?

    Not yet ……… but in a scenario where the deal was voted down, an extension had been refused, and we were days away from a crash no-deal?

    I think they'd revoke, don't even think the vote would be close. 340+ ayes.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,209
    rpjs said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
    Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.
    I can tell you right now that parliament will not revoke if the practical options are between that and a deal.
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,880
    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Are the votes there for revocation ?

    Not yet ……… but in a scenario where it's that or no-deal? I think they'd revoke.
    I agree. But also think they would vote through the deal ahead of revoking.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    Varadkar has played a hard but fair game all along I feel, he's got his own supply and confidence to keep up with Fianna Fail too something that's often overlooked I think.
  • isam said:

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.

    "The battle to rejoin starts here!"

    "You, er, got any other policies?"

    "Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
    Well, I said this last week, but the LDemmers don't think so...
    If the Deal passes, then whilst I don't think they'll go back to 7%, I can certainly see them sinking towards the low 10's in the next GE (Which is coming next Spring).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157
    edited October 2019
    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    That was the one!!!! Section 55. Thanks JRM IIRC?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    edited October 2019
    rpjs said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
    Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.
    The pressure has been primarly to avoid No Deal, with a secondary and smaller grouping using a second vote as cover for remaining. The votes just aren't there for revoke when there is a deal on the table that prevents No Deal.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760
    Drutt said:

    Not sure about the battles of the last three years being re-fought every Olympics by one part of the UK. Thankfully it's a part where the main protagonists are noted for their collegiate approach and rejection of sectarianism.

    Bollox alert
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Are the votes there for revocation ?

    Not yet ……… but in a scenario where it's that or no-deal? I think they'd revoke.
    I think the thing that might tip it for the MPs who have consistently voted against both, is that revocation is much easier to undo than a No Deal exit. So you can rationalise revoke as a different way of delaying, rather than necessarily an endpoint.

    I still expect the EU to agree to an extension, but I can see why they would want people to think otherwise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,949
    Gove looks a bit unsteady on his feet again.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Pulpstar said:

    Varadkar has played a hard but fair game all along I feel, he's got his own supply and confidence to keep up with Fianna Fail too something that's often overlooked I think.
    He can now replace the No Deal Budget for something a whole lot rosier.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    Pulpstar said:

    Varadkar has played a hard but fair game all along I feel, he's got his own supply and confidence to keep up with Fianna Fail too something that's often overlooked I think.
    Out of the EU, UK & Ireland the Irish have played a difficult hand well - while both the EU and UK have made serious blunders - though they may yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Pleasantly surprised that Johnson has got a deal and it has addressed the problem with the Belfast agreement that the previous deal presented.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 4,593
    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Wings is now advocating that the SNP should support Boris Johnson.

    Full Zoomer to the max. Fucking brilliant analysis that is.

    Mental, whilst it may be best option to help independence, it could not be countenanced ever.
    I must admit though it's no more peculiar than solving the Irish question by dumping the DUP and driving the province to early reunification.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    malcolmg said:

    Drutt said:

    Not sure about the battles of the last three years being re-fought every Olympics by one part of the UK. Thankfully it's a part where the main protagonists are noted for their collegiate approach and rejection of sectarianism.

    Bollox alert
    You've not read that in the manner @Drutt wrote it.
  • spudgfsh said:

    isam said:

    Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716

    Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.

    They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.

    Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
    "It's an electric train!"

    are there any diesels left on the underground?
    It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.
    They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,101
    Pulpstar said:

    rpjs said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
    Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.
    Are the votes there for revocation ?

    Boris' deal might not pass but you can count Hoey, the DUP and a good few others in amongst those that'll vote down revocation and the deal.
    If we've learnt anything, its that the HoC is very good at voting 'against' things.
  • Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Are the votes there for revocation ?

    Not yet ……… but in a scenario where the deal was voted down, an extension had been refused, and we were days away from a crash no-deal?

    I think they'd revoke, don't even think the vote would be close. 340+ ayes.
    Hate to say it, but its all the ultra-Remainers have got left. Vote down the deal, hope the EU doesn't grant another extension and then Parliament backs revoke.
    Government would collapse and GE immediately started, but they wouldn't care. They've got Remain.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Wiki has Ronnie Campbell down as abstaining on MV3.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760

    Noo said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.
    I do always love these posts. It's always break away from the UK, when what they really mean is "We hate the English".

    Years ago I read an alternative history (For All Time if you're interested), where ENGLAND left the Union first, in the 1960s.
    Wales, Scotland and NI stayed together as the rump UK.

    I'm a staunch unionist, but sometimes I do wonder if that might be an answer to stop all the whinging.
    What a bellend. Yet to hear anyone say they "hate the English". See plenty of bile from knobs like you though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 4,593

    spudgfsh said:

    isam said:

    Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716

    Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.

    They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.

    Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
    "It's an electric train!"

    are there any diesels left on the underground?
    It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.
    They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.
    That's what I like about this site - there is always someone who knows.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,521
    Pulpstar said:

    rpjs said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So, DUP are confirmed as against.

    He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?

    Tough maths,

    It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.

    If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
    Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.
    Are the votes there for revocation ?

    Boris' deal might not pass but you can count Hoey, the DUP and a good few others in amongst those that'll vote down revocation and the deal.
    If the alternative is a Halloween crash-out, yes. Revocation in this context does not mean an abandonment of Brexit, just the UK unilaterally getting an up to two years’ extension.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    Varadkar has played a hard but fair game all along I feel, he's got his own supply and confidence to keep up with Fianna Fail too something that's often overlooked I think.
    Ireland might have a general election before we do.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    I do always love these posts. It's always break away from the UK, when what they really mean is "We hate the English".

    Years ago I read an alternative history (For All Time if you're interested), where ENGLAND left the Union first, in the 1960s.
    Wales, Scotland and NI stayed together as the rump UK.

    I'm a staunch unionist, but sometimes I do wonder if that might be an answer to stop all the whinging.

    My experience of living in all three British countries is that in general the Welsh hate the English, but in general the Scottish don't. Yes, of course, it's easy to find Welsh people who don't and Scottish people who do -- I know these are coarse generalisations.

    I think though that you're being a bit dismissive when you talk about "whinging". There is a very real problem with the broad historical lack of support for toryism in Wales and Scotland and the predominance of Conservative governments in London. That's a challenge to the concept of democracy if you have it in mind that Wales and Scotland are nations.
    I recognise that many people would resist that, and would consider the UK as a nation, which is fine if that's what you believe, but many don't. And for those people, the challenge detailed above serious undermines the legitimacy of the UK as a state. Therefore, anything undesirable that happens from Westminster decisions take on not just the character of problems to be solved in the existing political arena, but evidence that a new political arena is needed.
    Call that whinging if you like, but it doesn't help. Rather, I would argue, it's the unwillingness to take seriously that view and meet it on its own terms that has led to the failure of unionism to kill off Scottish independence even after the referendum defeat.
    For all that some people dislike James O'Brien, the staple of a lot of his shows has been to ask "well what laws do you disagree with?" Take the nationalist argument on let people talk it out and -- who knows -- there may be solutions that don't involve dismissing complaints as "fostering grievance" or Scotland leaving the UK. You might find that there is some common ground.

    But it's up to you, if you think you're helping, carry on.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,938
    edited October 2019

    spudgfsh said:

    isam said:

    Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716

    Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.

    They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.

    Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
    "It's an electric train!"

    are there any diesels left on the underground?
    It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.
    They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.
    The problem with diesels underground...

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,277
    edited October 2019
    Because the impasse of the past three years might finally be about to resolve, we are forgetting that this is still the beginning of Brexit. The next stage could easily be worse, and the full range of futures from no deal to rejoin is still on offer. PB’ers who talk as if Brexit goes away and politics somehow returns to normal now are likely to be disappointed.
  • If Boris succeeds in re-uniting the Tory parliamentary party (more-or-less) in voting for the deal, only for it to be voted down very narrowly by a mad combo of Lab/Lib/DUP/SNP the public reaction is likely to be one of immense exasperation. Leading to:
    1) Gigantic pressure for an election
    2) Huge boost for Boris in polls
    And, if an election is denied by the same political junta the pressure will only build as the Brexit crisis continues.
    I just wonder if the pressure on Lab MPs to conform and vote against will really be that great...(notwithstanding NickP's views on the matter)
  • Juncker has ruled out an extension!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 2,284

    The polls are going to be very interesting over the next few days

    Big Boris bounce and then... not so good for him.
  • I think people are making two mirrored mistakes when they say that getting a deal agreed and ratified would leave both the LibDems and the Brexit Party with no arguments and little appeal to voters.

    The reason why these are mistakes is that, as we've discussed many times, getting to the transition phase of Brexit doesn't mean Brexit is done and dusted; all that will happen is that negotiations on the final settlement will start, and the domestic political discussion will shift to what should be in that final settlement. Oodles of scope there for the LibDems, and less convincingly Labour, to argue that we should move as close as possible to the EU (in the LibDems' case, with the added objective of eventually rejoining), and for the BXP to argue that any FTA won't be true Brexit and so Leavers should vote BXP to prevent the Conservatives sneaking a half-baked version of Brexit through.

    I believe that both of these lines will get quite a bit of traction, although putting figures to any vote shares is anyone's guess.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760

    Chris said:

    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."

    Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
    I think that's just a fantasy.
    Except, all the rest of the "fantasy" that I have been laying out here in detail for weeks on how we Brexit on 31st October has been slapping you upside the head...
    You have been on the money up till now. Looks like a deal is done now matter now, either immediately if they vote YES or after a landslide in election if they vote NO.
    Really underhand but it looks like they have done it.
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,880

    Juncker has ruled out an extension!

    wow. Will EU 27 back him or throw him under the bus?
  • Juncker Just said, live on Sky, that he was ruling out an extension.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,370



    Saturday is it. The final countdown. Time for making your mind up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,949
    Scott_P said:
    Getting a foreign leader to threaten the British people into doing what he wants? How did that work for Cameron?
  • Juncker Just said, live on Sky, that he was ruling out an extension.

    Macron been on the blower telling them I have had enough of this shit?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    The EU sick to the back teeth of Parliament fucking around.
  • Would be interesting if on Saturday Parliament rejected the deal but by single digits, so a letter gets sent under the Benn Act which gets a reply from the EU saying "no extension" and then there is a Boris Deal MV2. Surely would have to go through?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760
    Pulpstar said:

    malcolmg said:

    Drutt said:

    Not sure about the battles of the last three years being re-fought every Olympics by one part of the UK. Thankfully it's a part where the main protagonists are noted for their collegiate approach and rejection of sectarianism.

    Bollox alert
    You've not read that in the manner @Drutt wrote it.
    Possibly, it sounded like he was supporting GB teams , which I personally disapprove of big time.
  • Well, the Rebel Alliance have a bit of a problemo.....
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,941
    Just seen Farage`s comments. He would be well advsed to adopt a congratulatory tone should the governemnt succeed in getting a deal through rather than banging on about it not being Brexit. He played a massively instrumental role in
    getting us out of the EU and should bask in this and throw his weight behind the Tories.

    I wonder whether he and a few others in the BXP hanker too much to be an MP themselves and have taken their new party (inc millions from small donors) and have overly committed themselves to this new endeavour now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,261

    Nigelb said:

    Junckers said there is no need for prorogation

    Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time

    Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.

    "The battle to rejoin starts here!"

    "You, er, got any other policies?"

    "Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
    Their electoral argument is quite clear.
    A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
    Their "alternative" has been to over-ride the 17.4m who voted for Brexit.

    How very Liberal, how very Democratic.....
    Yawn.
    They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,434

    Juncker has ruled out an extension!

    Not his decision though.

    There seems to be a concerted effort to seem against extensions, but my guess is it's a front to persuade the HoC.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    tlg86 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    isam said:

    Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716

    Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.

    They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.

    Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
    "It's an electric train!"

    are there any diesels left on the underground?
    It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.
    They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.
    The problem with diesels underground...

    Glasgow Queen Street Low Level isn't really underground. It's basically under a bridge.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,669
    So my take on today's events:

    We aren't leaving.

    1. Parliament rejects the deal.
    2. EU refuses extension.
    3. VONC
    4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other
    5. Revoke A50
    6. Referendum on Deal
    7. Remain wins referendum

  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108
    Scott_P said:
    Not ruling it out? It says that is what he has been saying!
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73

    Henry_C said:

    First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.

    So the Benn Act will apply.

    Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:

    "(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

    "(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."

    So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.

    It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).

    And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."

    Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
    Boris Johnson would be out of office by the end of the day. The new government would pass legislation for a GE or a 3rd ref and apply for an extension in the changed circumstances.

    If the EU still said no it would be 1) hold an ultra-rapid GE or 3rd ref or 2) hold one (or both) in November and fudge into an "Only De Jure" Brexit in the meantime
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,964

    If Boris succeeds in re-uniting the Tory parliamentary party (more-or-less) in voting for the deal, only for it to be voted down very narrowly by a mad combo of Lab/Lib/DUP/SNP the public reaction is likely to be one of immense exasperation. Leading to:
    1) Gigantic pressure for an election
    2) Huge boost for Boris in polls
    And, if an election is denied by the same political junta the pressure will only build as the Brexit crisis continues.
    I just wonder if the pressure on Lab MPs to conform and vote against will really be that great...(notwithstanding NickP's views on the matter)

    How do you know?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816

    So my take on today's events:

    We aren't leaving.

    1. Parliament rejects the deal.
    2. EU refuses extension.
    3. VONC
    4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other
    5. Revoke A50
    6. Referendum on Deal
    7. Remain wins referendum

    You voted to leave. Own it.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,522
    Pulpstar said:

    The EU sick to the back teeth of Parliament fucking around.

    Not just the EU sick of the way the HoC has behaved over recent months
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 906
    I suspect that if, and it's a big if, parliament votes for a Deal/Remain referendum an extension will be granted as there will be a definitive end date.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Wings is now advocating that the SNP should support Boris Johnson.

    Full Zoomer to the max. Fucking brilliant analysis that is.

    Mental, whilst it may be best option to help independence, it could not be countenanced ever.
    I must admit though it's no more peculiar than solving the Irish question by dumping the DUP and driving the province to early reunification.
    Agree, but they would never want to be seen as helping the Tories for any reason. Johnson has shown that he cares about himself far more than the union. He has been derogatory about Scotland for many years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    Andrew said:

    Juncker has ruled out an extension!

    Not his decision though.

    There seems to be a concerted effort to seem against extensions, but my guess is it's a front to persuade the HoC.
    Dangerous game for Parliament to assume they're bluffing.
  • If one or two leaders also rule out an extension on the way in?...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 31,308
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    I have maintained that view since yesterday

    If confirmed in the EU communique it really is deal time

    *Jim Fitzpatrick will vote yes
  • malcolmg said:

    What a bellend. Yet to hear anyone say they "hate the English". See plenty of bile from knobs like you though.

    I am reminded of Paul Newman's comments about Richard Nixon's list at a time like this.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,434
    MV to pass in 2019 just went fav on Betfair.

    Premature I think ……. we need to hear from Macron/Merkel.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,277
    Stocky said:

    Just seen Farage`s comments. He would be well advsed to adopt a congratulatory tone should the governemnt succeed in getting a deal through rather than banging on about it not being Brexit. He played a massively instrumental role in
    getting us out of the EU and should bask in this and throw his weight behind the Tories.

    I wonder whether he and a few others in the BXP hanker too much to be an MP themselves and have taken their new party (inc millions from small donors) and have overly committed themselves to this new endeavour now.

    The different sects of Brexiters hate each other more than they hate their opponents, just the same as the hatred between the various factions within Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    I don't have much time for Labour but if Parliament REALLY wanted an extension they should have stuck Corbyn in charge for a couple of months.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157

    I think people are making two mirrored mistakes when they say that getting a deal agreed and ratified would leave both the LibDems and the Brexit Party with no arguments and little appeal to voters.

    The reason why these are mistakes is that, as we've discussed many times, getting to the transition phase of Brexit doesn't mean Brexit is done and dusted; all that will happen is that negotiations on the final settlement will start, and the domestic political discussion will shift to what should be in that final settlement. Oodles of scope there for the LibDems, and less convincingly Labour, to argue that we should move as close as possible to the EU (in the LibDems' case, with the added objective of eventually rejoining), and for the BXP to argue that any FTA won't be true Brexit and so Leavers should vote BXP to prevent the Conservatives sneaking a half-baked version of Brexit through.

    I believe that both of these lines will get quite a bit of traction, although putting figures to any vote shares is anyone's guess.

    Yes I think that is exactly right. We seem to be at the end of the beginning and there is a whole lot of middle bit to come with all competing parties making a play for their vision of the future.

    And why wouldn't Jo 'n Nige do so? They have parties to lead and agendas to agitate for.
  • I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,250
    Andrew said:

    Juncker has ruled out an extension!

    Not his decision though.

    There seems to be a concerted effort to seem against extensions, but my guess is it's a front to persuade the HoC.
    The HoC will be meeting on Saturday probably without knowing whether an extesion is to be granted or not. Perhaps the 27 will make their position clear in advance of that.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 380

    So my take on today's events:

    We aren't leaving.

    1. Parliament rejects the deal.
    2. EU refuses extension.
    3. VONC
    4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other
    5. Revoke A50
    6. Referendum on Deal
    7. Remain wins referendum

    There's enough people that voted Remain that would vote Deal knowing that a Remain win doesn't put an end to it all like a Deal win does. And also there's enough that would want to "honour the result of the referendum" by doing something, anything! Boris would walk it, I reckon.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108

    If one or two leaders also rule out an extension on the way in?...

    Totally unrelated question, but has anyone seen Orban go in yet?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,054
    I said this in one of my first comments.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,448
    Has Cummings been among us all the way along in the form of @MarqueeMark ? :D
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,304

    Scott_P said:
    I have maintained that view since yesterday

    If confirmed in the EU communique it really is deal time

    *Jim Fitzpatrick will vote yes
    It wasn’t in the communique , they didn’t mention an extension . MPs might have to decide deal or revoke .
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,434
    edited October 2019
    Thought: how about if Boris sends a letter today, complying with the Benn Act, and it gets refused.

    Contrived theatre of course, but would really clarify things for Saturday's HoC vote.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760
    Noo said:

    I do always love these posts. It's always break away from the UK, when what they really mean is "We hate the English".

    Years ago I read an alternative history (For All Time if you're interested), where ENGLAND left the Union first, in the 1960s.
    Wales, Scotland and NI stayed together as the rump UK.

    I'm a staunch unionist, but sometimes I do wonder if that might be an answer to stop all the whinging.

    My experience of living in all three British countries is that in general the Welsh hate the English, but in general the Scottish don't. Yes, of course, it's easy to find Welsh people who don't and Scottish people who do -- I know these are coarse generalisations.

    I think though that you're being a bit dismissive when you talk about "whinging". There is a very real problem with the broad historical lack of support for toryism in Wales and Scotland and the predominance of Conservative governments in London. That's a challenge to the concept of democracy if you have it in mind that Wales and Scotland are nations.
    I recognise that many people would resist that, and would consider the UK as a nation, which is fine if that's what you believe, but many don't. And for those people, the challenge detailed above serious undermines the legitimacy of the UK as a state. Therefore, anything undesirable that happens from Westminster decisions take on not just the character of problems to be solved in the existing political arena, but evidence that a new political arena is needed.
    Call that whinging if you like, but it doesn't help. Rather, I would argue, it's the unwillingness to take seriously that view and meet it on its own terms that has led to the failure of unionism to kill off Scottish independence even after the referendum defeat.
    For all that some people dislike James O'Brien, the staple of a lot of his shows has been to ask "well what laws do you disagree with?" Take the nationalist argument on let people talk it out and -- who knows -- there may be solutions that don't involve dismissing complaints as "fostering grievance" or Scotland leaving the UK. You might find that there is some common ground.

    But it's up to you, if you think you're helping, carry on.
    Good post, very balanced view which is unusual on here.
  • If Boris succeeds in re-uniting the Tory parliamentary party (more-or-less) in voting for the deal, only for it to be voted down very narrowly by a mad combo of Lab/Lib/DUP/SNP the public reaction is likely to be one of immense exasperation. Leading to:
    1) Gigantic pressure for an election
    2) Huge boost for Boris in polls
    And, if an election is denied by the same political junta the pressure will only build as the Brexit crisis continues.
    I just wonder if the pressure on Lab MPs to conform and vote against will really be that great...(notwithstanding NickP's views on the matter)

    How do you know?
    Well, I don't, of course. No-one does for sure. My operative words are "is likely" (in my opinion). Happy to see alternative forecasts. It's what the site is about. No?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited October 2019

    So my take on today's events:

    We aren't leaving.

    1. Parliament rejects the deal.
    2. EU refuses extension.
    3. VONC
    4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other
    5. Revoke A50
    6. Referendum on Deal
    7. Remain wins referendum

    Point 7 (Remain wins referendum) is in doubt if the campaign is led by the same idiots as last time with their relentlessly negative campaigning. Their regret last time was that they had not been negative enough, so be careful what you wish for.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    "If we have a deal.." but if the Commons votes against then he doesn't have a deal. The UK is a Parliamentary democracy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,669
    tlg86 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    isam said:

    Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716

    Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.

    They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.

    Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
    "It's an electric train!"

    are there any diesels left on the underground?
    It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.
    They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.
    The problem with diesels underground...

    My Lords! Dreadful! More of that kind of thing on PB please!

    I normally have to go to other, specialist websites to get my regular fix of 37 action!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Andrew said:

    Thought: how about if Boris sends a letter today, complying with the Benn Act, and it gets refused.

    Contrived theatre of course, but would really clarify things for Saturday's HoC vote.

    I've just been told down thread that is a "fantasy"! lol!

    All part of the ballet required to get this Deal done by 31st, in my oft-stated view.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,540
    Gods the dup are ridiculous. This is the start my arse. Its the end you twerps
  • I think people are making two mirrored mistakes when they say that getting a deal agreed and ratified would leave both the LibDems and the Brexit Party with no arguments and little appeal to voters.

    The reason why these are mistakes is that, as we've discussed many times, getting to the transition phase of Brexit doesn't mean Brexit is done and dusted; all that will happen is that negotiations on the final settlement will start, and the domestic political discussion will shift to what should be in that final settlement. Oodles of scope there for the LibDems, and less convincingly Labour, to argue that we should move as close as possible to the EU (in the LibDems' case, with the added objective of eventually rejoining), and for the BXP to argue that any FTA won't be true Brexit and so Leavers should vote BXP to prevent the Conservatives sneaking a half-baked version of Brexit through.

    I believe that both of these lines will get quite a bit of traction, although putting figures to any vote shares is anyone's guess.

    Indeed - if thenext general electin takes place after we have left, the discussion will be all about wat kind of final deal we will have. The Johnson one looks suspiciously lke it has been desiged to secure an FTA with the US on terms dictated byt he US. That puts the NHS and chlorinated chicken firmly on the agenda for Labour and the LDs. The more Johnson denies that this is the case, the more BXP gets to talk about Brexit In Name Only.

  • The willingness of Brexiteers to leap immediately upon a Juncker pronouncement as authoritative (& thus helpful to their cause) is quite the thing. Not calling him Druncker now, are ye?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 906
    Junker has no power to grant or block an extension. it is entirely down to the council.
This discussion has been closed.