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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach diff

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  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.
  • nichomar said:

    "Choice is not between Brexit or no Brexit, choice is between Brexit with a deal or without a deal" - EU leaders do not want our membership dragging on.

    Unless it’s for an election or referendum
    Remainers had the chance to have an election. Oops blew that one didn't tbey!

    Take a hear of stone not to laugh.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Can someone cleverer than me (don`t all rush at once) please explain the extent to which MPs can add amendments to Boris`s deal on Saturday.

    What if an amendment is added (e.g. subject to a confirmatory referendum) which the governemnt can not support. Could we see the government voting against it`s own deal?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    Alistair said:
    It seems that the deciding factor on his support now is that NI get to vote on the issue:

    https://twitter.com/RossThomson_MP/status/1184902620336574470

    Which is interesting, because from my understanding, isn't the voting mechanism just a rubber stamp? It needs Stormont sitting, and if it doesn't the status quo is it rolls over for another 4 years. If the power sharing gov supports the status quo, it rolls over for 6 years, if it just has majority support it rolls over for 4. I don't know what happens if Stormont voted with a clear majority to "leave" the EU de facto zone, but I imagine it would lead to Stormont not sitting and then just the new status quo continues? So NI can "leave" the EU de facto zone as long as it no longer tries to? Or am I failing to understand something about this part of the deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    Yet Boris has achieved it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    rkrkrk said: "Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible."

    No - May is a unionist and decided very firmly to put the union before brexit.
  • nichomar said:

    "Choice is not between Brexit or no Brexit, choice is between Brexit with a deal or without a deal" - EU leaders do not want our membership dragging on.

    Unless it’s for an election or referendum
    Now then.

    He did not say for a referendum. He said for a GE but they want this done now. The idea the EU will let this go on to next summer for a referendum is for the birds.

    The chorus of EU politicians all saying the same is clear they want this matter closed as they start their new Parliament
  • 148grss said:


    Isn't the South West currently looking like a LD resurgence? Are you sure this isn't just confirmation bias? The polls would suggest differently, would love to know why your canvassing should be trusted above it?

    There are people on here who made good money in 2015 on the back of my relaying my doorstep insights that the LibDems were going to get crushed. I had them holding 17 seats in the pb.com sweepstake when the perceived wisdom was that they couldn't possibly drop below 28. As it was, I was too generous.

    You?

    So here's a tip from the inside: Dr. Sarah Wollaston will not hold Totnes for the LibDems.
    Let's face it - Boris would have gone for No Deal were it not for the Benn Act. The indignity of having to grovel to the EU for an extension was more than his towering vanity could bear. The calculation was made that appeasing Varadkar and Juncker and humiliating the DUP would be preferable to any damage to Brand Boris.
    Bollocks. The wheels were already moving on Boris getting a new deal before Benn Act was passed.

    Boris had already had his meeting with Merkel and Macron were crucially he got them to agree to reopen the WDA.
    How quickly Cummings's leak of the Boris/Angela telephone chat is forgotten.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited October 2019
    Johnson seems to have the public onside, and the Tories unified behind the deal. Whether or not it passes Saturday something has definitely changed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited October 2019

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    Yet Boris has achieved it.
    They both achieved a deal. That wasn't the most tricky part.

    As I said, it is undoubtedly down to Boris' charming foppishness that the ERG have let go of their "no British PM..." rhetoric, not to say the law they so enthusiastically passed forbidding one, and now enthusiastically support a border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. Here's how the Cons Party email put it yesterday.

    "This new deal gives us the power to set our own laws, set our own taxes, make our own free trade deals – and keep our country united.

    And the people of Northern Ireland will be in charge of what happens in Northern Ireland."
  • Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway

    Yes

    That's the point.

    BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
    He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.

    Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists
    What an utterly stupid and crass last sentence. What on earth has happened to you
    Drunk on vicarious power ?
    Given the Tory propensity for Peruvian Askit powder, high on his own supply of boorish triumphalism.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson seems to have the public onside, and the Tories unified behind the deal. Whether or not it passes Saturday something has definitely changed.

    Yes that is for sure. Arlene is now "very not happy" whereas her steady state is just "not happy".
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Very well thought through and explained. Thank you, Obitus.

    It is hard to see a referendum of the type you imagine however, and I suspect you were proposing it slightly tongue in cheek. People are simply too fed up with Brexit and the point has been reached where almost any decision is preferable to no decision.

    Johnson will get this through, and we will all digest it at our leisure.

    Thanks PtP. You are right that I'm not entirely serious with my referendum suggestion.

    A Commons that can vote for a compromise referendum can probably manage to vote for a Brexit Deal first.

    It looks like the number of Labour rebels needs to exceed the number of ERG rebels by nine - and it's probably the case that there will be fewer Labour rebels if there are more ERG rebels.
    Noted with thanks, Obitus.

    I'm not sure I follow your final point. Surely there will be more Labour rebels if they are sure there are a lot of ERG rebels (because they can rebel without advers consequences.) Am I missing something? It is early for me.
    It was argued that there were few Labour rebels on the votes for May's deal because there was no point in receiving the criticism for rebelling when it couldn't affect the outcome of the vote.

    If there are few ERG rebels then a Labour rebel might be able to pass the deal by rebelling.
    OK, got it, but still seems a bit counter-intuitive to me.

    Labour rebels who help Boris over the line would not be hugely popular amongst Labour voters. Do you think those 'rebels' might have tacit support from the Leaderhip? Personally I doubt it but I wouldn't put it past them.
    The precedent is those Labour MPs who voted against a referendum the last time that came to a vote. Labour whipped in favour, some of the shadow cabinet voted against, there were no repercussions.

    This would be voting for something, though, and as we've seen with Brexit before, that's harder than voting against something.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    Alistair said:
    Whether English Conservatives believe in the Union is moot these days. For Scottish Conservatives, it's the essence of their being. Brexit is a disaster for what they stand for.
  • Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway

    Yes

    That's the point.

    BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
    He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.

    Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists
    What an utterly stupid and crass last sentence. What on earth has happened to you
    Drunk on vicarious power ?
    Given the Tory propensity for Peruvian Askit powder, high on his own supply of boorish triumphalism.
    I note HYUFD now adds 'diehard' to all his enemies now. Disturbingly I feel it's not an entirely metaphorical term for him.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    I think we're approaching the end-game where it's all about pinning the blame on someone else. MPs will vote down the deal and then deny it was anything to do with them. Arrogance tends to trip you up in the end

    They may even blame the EU if they refuse to allow an extension, but I suspect the EU will give in if forced.

    When I heard that ER were planning to blockade the London underground, my first thought was … have they gone barmy? That's the problem when you're always sure you're right, No one has even basic common sense.

  • rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    Not really. Having just NI remaining in the Customs Union was offered from the start, but Theresa rejected it and demanded that the entire UK be included. Maintaining the 'integrity of the UK' was her reason. Seems rather quaint looking back.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited October 2019
    Um, the backstop hasn't gone - it's just now a permanent part of the deal.
  • 148grss said:


    Isn't the South West currently looking like a LD resurgence? Are you sure this isn't just confirmation bias? The polls would suggest differently, would love to know why your canvassing should be trusted above it?

    There are people on here who made good money in 2015 on the back of my relaying my doorstep insights that the LibDems were going to get crushed. I had them holding 17 seats in the pb.com sweepstake when the perceived wisdom was that they couldn't possibly drop below 28. As it was, I was too generous.

    You?

    So here's a tip from the inside: Dr. Sarah Wollaston will not hold Totnes for the LibDems.
    Let's face it - Boris would have gone for No Deal were it not for the Benn Act. The indignity of having to grovel to the EU for an extension was more than his towering vanity could bear. The calculation was made that appeasing Varadkar and Juncker and humiliating the DUP would be preferable to any damage to Brand Boris.
    Bollocks. The wheels were already moving on Boris getting a new deal before Benn Act was passed.

    Boris had already had his meeting with Merkel and Macron were crucially he got them to agree to reopen the WDA.
    How quickly Cummings's leak of the Boris/Angela telephone chat is forgotten.
    That was clever politics. It put pressure on the EU because they were studiously trying to avoid blame for there not being an agreement and he got it out that they were being obstructionist. To which the solution was to remove the obstruction.
  • Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway

    Yes

    That's the point.

    BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
    He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.

    Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists
    What an utterly stupid and crass last sentence. What on earth has happened to you
    Drunk on vicarious power ?
    Given the Tory propensity for Peruvian Askit powder, high on his own supply of boorish triumphalism.
    May I just say as a conservative with close Scottish ties I and my family are strongly for the Union but utterly condemn HYUFD 'boorish triumphalism' and the extreme language he uses on occassions
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Also I think this deal looks to me like May Mark 2.

    The EU did not want the backstop to hang around forever, Johnson/Varadkar appear to have negotiated essentially the mechanism to replace the backstop - so if May's deal had passed then this is what could have eventually resulted.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Very well thought through and explained. Thank you, Obitus.

    It is hard to see a referendum of the type you imagine however, and I suspect you were proposing it slightly tongue in cheek. People are simply too fed up with Brexit and the point has been reached where almost any decision is preferable to no decision.

    Johnson will get this through, and we will all digest it at our leisure.

    Thanks PtP. You are right that I'm not entirely serious with my referendum suggestion.

    A Commons that can vote for a compromise referendum can probably manage to vote for a Brexit Deal first.

    It looks like the number of Labour rebels needs to exceed the number of ERG rebels by nine - and it's probably the case that there will be fewer Labour rebels if there are more ERG rebels.
    Noted with thanks, Obitus.

    I'm not sure I follow your final point. Surely there will be more Labour rebels if they are sure there are a lot of ERG rebels (because they can rebel without advers consequences.) Am I missing something? It is early for me.
    It was argued that there were few Labour rebels on the votes for May's deal because there was no point in receiving the criticism for rebelling when it couldn't affect the outcome of the vote.

    If there are few ERG rebels then a Labour rebel might be able to pass the deal by rebelling.
    OK, got it, but still seems a bit counter-intuitive to me.

    Labour rebels who help Boris over the line would not be hugely popular amongst Labour voters. Do you think those 'rebels' might have tacit support from the Leaderhip? Personally I doubt it but I wouldn't put it past them.
    The precedent is those Labour MPs who voted against a referendum the last time that came to a vote. Labour whipped in favour, some of the shadow cabinet voted against, there were no repercussions.

    This would be voting for something, though, and as we've seen with Brexit before, that's harder than voting against something.
    As @HYUFD notes, it is an exquisite dilemma (not trilemma - great article!) for Lab. If the deal passes Boris will then get his election (because the opposition has stated clearly that all they want is no no deal) and will win with a thumping majority as saviour of everything we hold dear.

    As a Labour MP are you going to vote for that? Voting against, meanwhile, is the Cummings strategy - keep it chaotic for as long as possible and something might turn up.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I think if May hadn't needed the DUP votes, she would have happily done this deal.
  • eek said:

    Um, the backstop hasn't gone - it's just now a permanent part of the deal.
    And a great deal for NI
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway

    Yes

    That's the point.

    BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
    He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.

    Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists
    What an utterly stupid and crass last sentence. What on earth has happened to you
    Drunk on vicarious power ?
    Given the Tory propensity for Peruvian Askit powder, high on his own supply of boorish triumphalism.
    May I just say as a conservative with close Scottish ties I and my family are strongly for the Union but utterly condemn HYUFD 'boorish triumphalism' and the extreme language he uses on occassions
    Compared to what the Spanish are doing with Catalan nationalists my comments were mild
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Pulpstar said:

    Also I think this deal looks to me like May Mark 2.

    The EU did not want the backstop to hang around forever, Johnson/Varadkar appear to have negotiated essentially the mechanism to replace the backstop - so if May's deal had passed then this is what could have eventually resulted.

    That is true. But there is a deal so for god's sake don't go all logical on the Leavers or they might ask a grown up to explain what's really going on and then we would all be in trouble. I mean look at the article from JRM. Enthusiastically supporting a deal a part of which he made illegal relatively recently.
  • FF43 said:

    Alistair said:
    Whether English Conservatives believe in the Union is moot these days. For Scottish Conservatives, it's the essence of their being. Brexit is a disaster for what they stand for.
    I think that's the karmic consequence of not really standing for anything else very much (Brexit, devolution, various domestic policy positions, even the independence of the Scottish Conservative party); having the courage of you convictions is fine, but not so good if you only have one conviction.
  • TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    Yet Boris has achieved it.
    They both achieved a deal. That wasn't the most tricky part.

    As I said, it is undoubtedly down to Boris' charming foppishness that the ERG have let go of their "no British PM..." rhetoric, not to say the law they so enthusiastically passed forbidding one, and now enthusiastically support a border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. Here's how the Cons Party email put it yesterday.

    "This new deal gives us the power to set our own laws, set our own taxes, make our own free trade deals – and keep our country united.

    And the people of Northern Ireland will be in charge of what happens in Northern Ireland."
    Yes, the Leavers are utterly in thrall to Boris. The way he's entwined himself within their collective psyche, making them mere tools to facilitate his chosen adventures, both dazzles and terrifies.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said: "Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible."

    No - May is a unionist and decided very firmly to put the union before brexit.

    Do you think she is going to vote against Boris' deal tomorrow?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Topping said: "If the deal passes Boris will then get his election (because the opposition has stated clearly that all they want is no no deal)"

    I disagree. Corbyn will not table a VONC whatever happens. They will be no GE in the short term. Talk will turn to a confirmatory referendum.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited October 2019

    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    Yet Boris has achieved it.
    They both achieved a deal. That wasn't the most tricky part.

    As I said, it is undoubtedly down to Boris' charming foppishness that the ERG have let go of their "no British PM..." rhetoric, not to say the law they so enthusiastically passed forbidding one, and now enthusiastically support a border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. Here's how the Cons Party email put it yesterday.

    "This new deal gives us the power to set our own laws, set our own taxes, make our own free trade deals – and keep our country united.

    And the people of Northern Ireland will be in charge of what happens in Northern Ireland."
    Yes, the Leavers are utterly in thrall to Boris. The way he's entwined himself within their collective psyche, making them mere tools to facilitate his chosen adventures, both dazzles and terrifies.
    Well, if you believe that deep (or not so deep) down he is a fully paid up member of the metropolitan liberal elite there are grounds for optimism policy-wise. Although he is of course still a ****
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Also I think this deal looks to me like May Mark 2.

    The EU did not want the backstop to hang around forever, Johnson/Varadkar appear to have negotiated essentially the mechanism to replace the backstop - so if May's deal had passed then this is what could have eventually resulted.

    That is true. But there is a deal so for god's sake don't go all logical on the Leavers or they might ask a grown up to explain what's really going on and then we would all be in trouble. I mean look at the article from JRM. Enthusiastically supporting a deal a part of which he made illegal relatively recently.
    I think May's deal was better as it was closer to remaining (Whilst still satisfying the vote) - but this one will do.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited October 2019
    What a strange world.

    The EU has offered (in a way) to respect the referendum result, yet the British opposition parties who did pledge to respect it are against it. I'm looking at you, Jezza.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    rkrkrk said: "Do you think she is going to vote against Boris' deal tomorrow?"

    No - I think she`ll vote for it but would have preferred her own WA.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stocky said:

    Topping said: "If the deal passes Boris will then get his election (because the opposition has stated clearly that all they want is no no deal)"

    I disagree. Corbyn will not table a VONC whatever happens. They will be no GE in the short term. Talk will turn to a confirmatory referendum.

    If the deal passes there will be no referendum
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,341
    edited October 2019
    On a wider question which all this is predicated upon, in the British isles generally how much opinion truly supports the present NI situation as a permanent solution to the deliverances of geography and history. There are two sane solutions, both excellent: two states - Britain and Ireland, each deciding its on fate with regard to EU, NATO and everything else; or one state - The British and Irish Isles - operating as New Zealand does. I like the second better but it isn't going to happen. Yesterday's deal would make the first slightly more possible. Good. The union as it now stands is unsustainable in the long run, and once part of Ireland is in the EU and part not this will become clearer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    CD13 said:

    What a strange world.

    The EU has offered (in a way) to respect the referendum result, yet the British opposition parties who did pledge to respect it are against it.

    Remainers railing against the bloody EU.....delicious!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    HYUFD said:
    Independent Group for Change - less than 1%. lol!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Scott_P said:
    Alexei Sayle had a line about "anybody that uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineeering is a c**t."

    Similarly, anyone who isn't involved in Victorian street illumination who uses the term "gaslighting".....
    Alexei Sayle, while still amusing, is a little like Corbyn in that he has learned nothing and forgotten nothing since the 1970s.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Stocky said:

    Topping said: "If the deal passes Boris will then get his election (because the opposition has stated clearly that all they want is no no deal)"

    I disagree. Corbyn will not table a VONC whatever happens. They will be no GE in the short term. Talk will turn to a confirmatory referendum.

    If the deal passes there will be no referendum
    Yep. It just wouldn't fly. We have a deal to leave the EU done and dusted and then there is a referendum in X months to confirm it? I don't think so.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    Boris Johnson: The Art of the Deal

    Say something is completely unacceptable, become PM, then accept the unacceptable, but moreso.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/the-arithmetic-is-merciless-european-newspapers-react-to-brexit-deal

    I do think if May had negotiated this deal the ERG would be against it, but I have never been sure if that was just May's failures as a politician, the ERGs dislike of May or other issues.
  • CD13 said:

    What a strange world.

    The EU has offered (in a way) to respect the referendum result, yet the British opposition parties who did pledge to respect it are against it.

    Remainers railing against the bloody EU.....delicious!
    I feel quite strongly that your observation about use of the term 'gaslighting' also applies to 'delicious' in anything other than a food context.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    CD13 said:

    What a strange world.

    The EU has offered (in a way) to respect the referendum result, yet the British opposition parties who did pledge to respect it are against it. I'm looking at you, Jezza.

    It's almost as if the EU has always wanted to respect the referendum, and those claiming they just wanted to trap us in the EU were wrong and just being paranoid about Johnny Foreigner. Good thing nobody here ran that narrative, ay?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059



    "Been Labour all my life. But never again.

    I like your Boris."

    You saying I've never heard this on the doorsteps? OK, suit yourself.....

    Labour Voter does not equal Socialist. It just equals Labour voter. I’m not denying that Boris is more popular that Corbyn, I’m not a flat earther, but a Peadophile Ebola Virus that joined Islamic State would poll better than Corbyn.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    rkrkrk said:

    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said: "Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible."

    No - May is a unionist and decided very firmly to put the union before brexit.

    Do you think she is going to vote against Boris' deal tomorrow?
    Theresa May is a type of Conservative, of whom there are many, that will always support the Conservative government, so yes, if she is there she will support the deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2019
    algarkirk said:

    On a wider question which all this is predicated upon, in the British isles generally how much opinion truly supports the present NI situation as a permanent solution to the deliverances of geography and history. There are two sane solutions, both excellent: two states - Britain and Ireland, each deciding its on fate with regard to EU, NATO and everything else; or one state - The British and Irish Isles - operating as New Zealand does. I like the second better but it isn't going to happen. Yesterday's deal would make the first slightly more possible. Good. The union as it now stands is unsustainable in the long run, and once part of Ireland is in the EU and part not this will become clearer.

    The Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland, if there was a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it would have been more likely Northern Irish voters voted for a united Ireland (bar Antrim where the DUP may have declared UDI rather than join the Republic)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    I may be wrong but unless there is VONC/“GNU” shenanigans in the coming weeks that lead to a new PM being installed, even if an election is called next week Boris will have passed Canning and will not be the shortest serving PM.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    edited October 2019

    @HYUFD

    https://twitter.com/RossThomson_MP/status/1184838548442243072?s=20

    It takes particular sophistry to claim NI consent for this version of Brexit. Absolutely everyone in Northern Ireland is opposed, either because they don't want Brexit in the first place or precisely because they don't get any consent over what happens.

    And it's false to say NI will be in the UK customs territory, unlike May's Deal. May's Deal actually did mean NI being in the UK customs area (which was also the EU customs area)


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    CD13 said:

    What a strange world.

    The EU has offered (in a way) to respect the referendum result, yet the British opposition parties who did pledge to respect it are against it.

    Remainers railing against the bloody EU.....delicious!
    I feel quite strongly that your observation about use of the term 'gaslighting' also applies to 'delicious' in anything other than a food context.
    I think "delicious" has a damned fine pedigree when talked of in associaton with irony.

    Snowflake.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,341
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Alexei Sayle had a line about "anybody that uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineeering is a c**t."

    Similarly, anyone who isn't involved in Victorian street illumination who uses the term "gaslighting".....
    Alexei Sayle, while still amusing, is a little like Corbyn in that he has learned nothing and forgotten nothing since the 1970s.
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Alexei Sayle had a line about "anybody that uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineeering is a c**t."

    Similarly, anyone who isn't involved in Victorian street illumination who uses the term "gaslighting".....
    Alexei Sayle, while still amusing, is a little like Corbyn in that he has learned nothing and forgotten nothing since the 1970s.
    Pedant's note: Gaslighting was still used on streets in suburban London in the 1960s and in some suburban London stations in the 1970s and in at least one house where I now live in the north in the 1990s.

    Agree about workshops.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said: "Do you think she is going to vote against Boris' deal tomorrow?"

    No - I think she`ll vote for it but would have preferred her own WA.

    Agree, I think she'd prefer her own WA, but would be quite happy to have this one. I think that makes her equally uninterested in N. Ireland as Boris.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    Topping said: "If the deal passes Boris will then get his election (because the opposition has stated clearly that all they want is no no deal)"

    I disagree. Corbyn will not table a VONC whatever happens. They will be no GE in the short term. Talk will turn to a confirmatory referendum.

    If the deal passes there will be no referendum
    Yep. It just wouldn't fly. We have a deal to leave the EU done and dusted and then there is a referendum in X months to confirm it? I don't think so.
    Indeed. And I doubt the EU would extend once deal passes parliament anyway
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
    Are you being serious ! Johnson doesn’t give a fig about the Union , all he cares about is being PM.

    No one with a straight face can see this deal as anything other than the first steps to breaking up the UK.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited October 2019
    Things will look very different if this happens (Corbyn`s dream):

    1) Vote on Saturday fails
    2) Boris is obliged to send letter
    3) EU grant extension
    4) 31/10 goes by with us still in EU with no resolution in sight
    5) BXP resurgent

    I`d put chances on above at 50/50.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Re the Letwin alleged amendment to keep Benn until legislation waib all passed. If Boris is extra smart he will accept that as a sign of good faith to labour waverers
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    On a wider question which all this is predicated upon, in the British isles generally how much opinion truly supports the present NI situation as a permanent solution to the deliverances of geography and history. There are two sane solutions, both excellent: two states - Britain and Ireland, each deciding its on fate with regard to EU, NATO and everything else; or one state - The British and Irish Isles - operating as New Zealand does. I like the second better but it isn't going to happen. Yesterday's deal would make the first slightly more possible. Good. The union as it now stands is unsustainable in the long run, and once part of Ireland is in the EU and part not this will become clearer.

    The Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland, if there was a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it would have been more likely Northern Irish voters voted for a united Ireland (bar Antrim where the DUP may have declared UDI rather than join the Republic)
    Whereas now they have a unified entity on the island of Ireland which has a different regulatory regime to that of Great Britain. It is all the nationalists could have hoped for. Boris doing their work to edge towards a united Ireland.

    @MarqueeMark pls note also wrt Boris the Unionist. Unionists don't carve out bits of their Union to let it align with a foreign power (to use the vernacular).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Re the Letwin alleged amendment to keep Benn until legislation waib all passed. If Boris is extra smart he will accept that as a sign of good faith to labour waverers

    If he doesn’t accept this amendment then he clearly cares more about his stupid pledge than a deal being ratified.

    I can’t see any problem with a short extension to just make sure there are no last minute dramas with the WAIB.
  • CD13 said:

    What a strange world.

    The EU has offered (in a way) to respect the referendum result, yet the British opposition parties who did pledge to respect it are against it.

    Remainers railing against the bloody EU.....delicious!
    I feel quite strongly that your observation about use of the term 'gaslighting' also applies to 'delicious' in anything other than a food context.
    I think "delicious" has a damned fine pedigree when talked of in associaton with irony.

    Snowflake.
    Ta for validating my theory.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    Yes, the Header sums up the essence of this very well indeed.

    As to what will happen?

    Now it has become clear that there WILL be an extension (either for a GE or for Ref2) if the Deal fails, it puts Boris Johnson in the Theresa May position but with a better chance of getting it through.

    And I think it WILL pass.

    Why?

    Because this works for Labour too. Hence their decision not to sanction rebels who vote for it. Brexit happening gets them off the hook of their difficult-to-sell Brexit position. It then opens up clear attack lines for a GE - oppose tooth & nail the Tory plan (via the PD) to trash workers, consumers and the environment. And as a brucie bonus it stuffs the Lib Dems.

    So that's my prediction. I'm going in with it early. The Deal passes and I reckon by about 10.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    CD13 said:

    What a strange world.

    The EU has offered (in a way) to respect the referendum result, yet the British opposition parties who did pledge to respect it are against it.

    Remainers railing against the bloody EU.....delicious!
    I feel quite strongly that your observation about use of the term 'gaslighting' also applies to 'delicious' in anything other than a food context.
    I think "delicious" has a damned fine pedigree when talked of in associaton with irony.

    Snowflake.
    Ta for validating my theory.
    Ta for showing you haven't read the thread. And don't do irony.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456

    CD13 said:

    What a strange world.

    The EU has offered (in a way) to respect the referendum result, yet the British opposition parties who did pledge to respect it are against it.

    Remainers railing against the bloody EU.....delicious!
    I feel quite strongly that your observation about use of the term 'gaslighting' also applies to 'delicious' in anything other than a food context.
    I'm with Mark here. At least I know what he means when he says delicious. Every time someone uses a word like gaslighting I have to look it up and being an old codger have to look it up again the next time it is used, and the next......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
    Are you being serious ! Johnson doesn’t give a fig about the Union , all he cares about is being PM.

    No one with a straight face can see this deal as anything other than the first steps to breaking up the UK.
    Northern Ireland will break from the Union when Northern Ireland votes to break from the Union. Ditto Scotland. Boris Johnson will do all in his power to fight to keep the Union. But if they choose to ignore him - up to them.

    But I'm loving the feeble attempts to find a way to tarnish Boris after he did what you aall were saying was impossible. Your impotent rage is a joy to behold.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Morning all :)

    Last night's by-election numbers confirmed the voters have caught up with the polls and the Conservatives now have a solid base of support which means they will not only win an election called in the immediate future but most likely with a landslide majority perhaps on the scale of 1983.

    It's not a prospect I relish quite apart from the gloating of the Conservative-inclined on here because the Conservatives should be apart healing the divisions of Brexit and building a country and society fit for the 2020s but I see next to no evidence of that in Boris's wish list so I expect we will see another round of tax cutting lunacy and more debt for the future.

    For the Opposition, it's about re-grouping and finding a way to harness the disillusionment which will inevitably set in once Boris's promises are shown to be a mirage and leaving the EU doesn't make us the greatest place on Earth.

    I'm very downbeat about the prospects this morning - the future looks like a Conservative boot stamping on a human face forever (though that's a shade Orwellian).
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    edited October 2019
    Stocky said:

    Things will look very different if this happens (Corbyn`s dream):

    1) Vote on Saturday fails
    2) Boris is obliged to send letter
    3) EU grant extension
    4) 31/10 goes by with us still in EU with no resolution in sight
    5) BXP resurgent

    I`d put chances on above at 50/50.

    If we do have another election, where Boris offers this deal in his manifesto, then that adds considerable democratic legitimacy to Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Stocky said:

    Things will look very different if this happens (Corbyn`s dream):

    1) Vote on Saturday fails
    2) Boris is obliged to send letter
    3) EU grant extension
    4) 31/10 goes by with us still in EU with no resolution in sight
    5) BXP resurgent

    I`d put chances on above at 50/50.

    Except without a vote for EUref2 or a GE the EU will likely not grant an extension if the Commons votes down the Deal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    stodge said:

    I'm very downbeat about the prospects this morning - the future looks like a Conservative boot stamping on a human face forever (though that's a shade Orwellian).

    A boot? Nah - nothing more than a suede Hushpuppy.....
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    stodge said: "Conservatives now have a solid base of support which means they will not only win an election called in the immediate future"

    Are you assuming that the vote goes through on Saturday?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2019

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
    Are you being serious ! Johnson doesn’t give a fig about the Union , all he cares about is being PM.

    No one with a straight face can see this deal as anything other than the first steps to breaking up the UK.
    Northern Ireland will break from the Union when Northern Ireland votes to break from the Union. Ditto Scotland. Boris Johnson will do all in his power to fight to keep the Union. But if they choose to ignore him - up to them.

    But I'm loving the feeble attempts to find a way to tarnish Boris after he did what you aall were saying was impossible. Your impotent rage is a joy to behold.
    Indeed, had Boris gone for No Deal you can guarantee diehard Remainers would be saying he had just ensured Scottish independence and a united Ireland and the end of the Union, so Boris could not win with them
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
    Are you being serious ! Johnson doesn’t give a fig about the Union , all he cares about is being PM.

    No one with a straight face can see this deal as anything other than the first steps to breaking up the UK.
    Northern Ireland will break from the Union when Northern Ireland votes to break from the Union. Ditto Scotland. Boris Johnson will do all in his power to fight to keep the Union. But if they choose to ignore him - up to them.

    But I'm loving the feeble attempts to find a way to tarnish Boris after he did what you aall were saying was impossible. Your impotent rage is a joy to behold.
    Not really. What we (I) said and have said for donkeys years on here was that it was impossible for there to be a border in NI or any kind of divergence between NI and the RoI that would need custom checks. I had thought the backstop was the least unacceptable to the UK of achieving this because, it being the UK, it meant that it didn't jettison NI and so the whole of the UK would be aligned until a FTA was agreed.

    So on the first point I was right - no border, no divergence.

    And as for the second, I mean you may have called the results in North Dorset, but you only have to read the most cursory commentary in the media, not to say from us here on PB, not to say the deal itself, to understand that a split has occurred which will involve a border in the Irish Sea. Now, it is right that the people of NI get to choose this every four years (why not the Scots also?) and hence there is democratic legitimacy but to give them such a democratic choice is to accept that the Union is looser and might well eventually split.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    edited October 2019

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
    Fair enough I'm sure Johnson does believe in the Union at some level. He keeps talking about Britain, so we have to assume it's a thing for him. But it isn't a priority for him as it is for May, and as this header points out. He won't take action to support the Union if other things dictate otherwise.

    What are Johnson's priorities? Frankly on the evidence: himself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    Pulpstar said:

    I think May's deal was better as it was closer to remaining (Whilst still satisfying the vote) - but this one will do.

    I would say this is better because it gives more freedom for GB to diverge in the future. Whether that is 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit depends on the complexion of the UK government negotiating - and then managing - the Future Relationship, which in turn depends on GE outcomes. I think that is eminently reasonable.

    If I was a strong unionist, however, I would be extremely unhappy because this Deal breaks it up. As sure as eggs is eggs, we see an independent Scotland and a reunified Ireland within a few short years.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    rkrkrk said "If we do have another election, where Boris offers this deal in his manifesto, then that adds considerable democratic legitimacy to Brexit."

    I completely agree - but where is this mythical election coming from?? The power to call a GE resides with Corbyn, and I firmly believe that he will not table a VONC any time soon.
  • Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?

    We're into transition then so nothing will change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    On a wider question which all this is predicated upon, in the British isles generally how much opinion truly supports the present NI situation as a permanent solution to the deliverances of geography and history. There are two sane solutions, both excellent: two states - Britain and Ireland, each deciding its on fate with regard to EU, NATO and everything else; or one state - The British and Irish Isles - operating as New Zealand does. I like the second better but it isn't going to happen. Yesterday's deal would make the first slightly more possible. Good. The union as it now stands is unsustainable in the long run, and once part of Ireland is in the EU and part not this will become clearer.

    The Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland, if there was a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it would have been more likely Northern Irish voters voted for a united Ireland (bar Antrim where the DUP may have declared UDI rather than join the Republic)
    Whereas now they have a unified entity on the island of Ireland which has a different regulatory regime to that of Great Britain. It is all the nationalists could have hoped for. Boris doing their work to edge towards a united Ireland.

    @MarqueeMark pls note also wrt Boris the Unionist. Unionists don't carve out bits of their Union to let it align with a foreign power (to use the vernacular).
    The fastest route to a United Ireland would have been a hard border in Ireland between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, Boris avoided that and preserved the Good Friday Agreement
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
    Fair enough I'm sure Johnson does believe in the Union at some level. He keeps talking about Britain, so we have to assume it's a thing for him. But it isn't a priority for him as it is for May, and as this header points out. He won't take action to support the Union if other things dictate otherwise.

    What are Johnson's priorities? Frankly on the evidence: himself.
    Brexit undoubtedly weakens the union. If it occurs then the loss of NI and Scotland becomes much more likely.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    I think Labour rebels will be limited in number, but perhaps as many as 15, mostly people like Gloria de Piero who are retiring anyway and feel what the hell. It is IMO clearly in Labour's interest to defeat the deal (and any Labour MPs who vote for it will be deselected by members without the leadership needing to twitch a finger), but I'm not sure the retirees care that much - her caustic response to Umunna urging Labour loyalty is amusing and telling. So it should pass unless there's more ERG opposition than currently seems likely.

    I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think May's deal was better as it was closer to remaining (Whilst still satisfying the vote) - but this one will do.

    I would say this is better because it gives more freedom for GB to diverge in the future. Whether that is 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit depends on the complexion of the UK government negotiating - and then managing - the Future Relationship, which in turn depends on GE outcomes. I think that is eminently reasonable.

    If I was a strong unionist, however, I would be extremely unhappy because this Deal breaks it up. As sure as eggs is eggs, we see an independent Scotland and a reunified Ireland within a few short years.
    Wrong, Scots now want to see Brexit delivered and will be grateful No Deal has been avoided.

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184399764168859648?s=20

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184396383148793857?s=20

    Northern Irish voters will also be grateful a hard border with the Republic of Ireland has been avoided and will thus be happy to stay in the UK
  • I think Labour rebels will be limited in number, but perhaps as many as 15, mostly people like Gloria de Piero who are retiring anyway and feel what the hell. It is IMO clearly in Labour's interest to defeat the deal (and any Labour MPs who vote for it will be deselected by members without the leadership needing to twitch a finger), but I'm not sure the retirees care that much - her caustic response to Umunna urging Labour loyalty is amusing and telling. So it should pass unless there's more ERG opposition than currently seems likely.

    I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead.

    "Mildly embarrassing"....you mean Corbyn has been lying all this time.
  • nico67 said:

    Re the Letwin alleged amendment to keep Benn until legislation waib all passed. If Boris is extra smart he will accept that as a sign of good faith to labour waverers

    If he doesn’t accept this amendment then he clearly cares more about his stupid pledge than a deal being ratified.

    I can’t see any problem with a short extension to just make sure there are no last minute dramas with the WAIB.
    I think you may find the EU does. Multiple sources from the EU have said that they will not grant an extension just to carry on talking and even saying that if the deal falls tomorrow the UK government should bring it back next week in order to meet the 31st deadline.

    The EU will see this as another delaying tactic
  • Stocky said:

    Things will look very different if this happens (Corbyn`s dream):

    1) Vote on Saturday fails
    2) Boris is obliged to send letter
    3) EU grant extension
    4) 31/10 goes by with us still in EU with no resolution in sight
    5) BXP resurgent

    I`d put chances on above at 50/50.

    3, 4 and 5 are all unlikely.

    3: EU leaders have repeatedly said today and yesterday that there is no need for a prolongation or an extension. The Luxembourg PM explicitly said that if Parliament narrowly rejects it that there could be another vote on Monday or Tuesday.

    3: Not true. There is a resolution in sight, it just needs ratification now.

    5: Nah BXP won't be resurgent. BXP are has beens now, Boris will be hoovering up their votes under his Get Brexit Done banner.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I think the vote could still go either way .

    Momentum is important here , I think we’re unlikeiy to know the direction of travel until tomorrow .

    Labour MPs who might vote for it might only say this tomorrow. To avoid the likely blowback over the next 24 hours .

    If however a few of the ERG start to say no today then I expect it’s game over for the deal to pass.

    Labour MPs will only risk it if they think there’s a good chance of it passing .
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    On a wider question which all this is predicated upon, in the British isles generally how much opinion truly supports the present NI situation as a permanent solution to the deliverances of geography and history. There are two sane solutions, both excellent: two states - Britain and Ireland, each deciding its on fate with regard to EU, NATO and everything else; or one state - The British and Irish Isles - operating as New Zealand does. I like the second better but it isn't going to happen. Yesterday's deal would make the first slightly more possible. Good. The union as it now stands is unsustainable in the long run, and once part of Ireland is in the EU and part not this will become clearer.

    The Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland, if there was a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it would have been more likely Northern Irish voters voted for a united Ireland (bar Antrim where the DUP may have declared UDI rather than join the Republic)
    Whereas now they have a unified entity on the island of Ireland which has a different regulatory regime to that of Great Britain. It is all the nationalists could have hoped for. Boris doing their work to edge towards a united Ireland.

    @MarqueeMark pls note also wrt Boris the Unionist. Unionists don't carve out bits of their Union to let it align with a foreign power (to use the vernacular).
    The fastest route to a United Ireland would have been a hard border in Ireland between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, Boris avoided that and preserved the Good Friday Agreement
    You have no idea about what would or wouldn't have transpired with a hard border. You just don't have that type of contextual knowledge.

    I have said for years on here that there would be no hard border and I would be amazed if you haven't at some point told me I was wrong, along with others on here.

    But what is unalterably the case is that Boris' deal, by hiving off NI and allowing it to align with the RoI, brings unification closer and all with the official sanction of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    "Umunna urging Labour loyalty"

    Ha ha
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think May's deal was better as it was closer to remaining (Whilst still satisfying the vote) - but this one will do.

    I would say this is better because it gives more freedom for GB to diverge in the future. Whether that is 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit depends on the complexion of the UK government negotiating - and then managing - the Future Relationship, which in turn depends on GE outcomes. I think that is eminently reasonable.

    If I was a strong unionist, however, I would be extremely unhappy because this Deal breaks it up. As sure as eggs is eggs, we see an independent Scotland and a reunified Ireland within a few short years.
    Disagree on the Scotland point. If we leave the UK and the customs union, then that is then iron clad that an independent Scotland in the EU would require a hard border with rUK.

    Like it or not, there is a lot more ease which Scotland would be an independent country within the EU, than an independent country with the rUK outside the EU.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?

    We're into transition then so nothing will change.
    So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    So Boris delivers Brexit with Labour MPs votes, the LDs will be almost as delighted as the Tories
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    @MarqueeMark

    So I congratulated you a little too soon yesterday as it turns out :smile:

    It was PR to help Johnson sell the Deal. There WILL be an extension if the Deal fails. Just that this time it will have to be for a specific event, GE or Ref2.

    Still QUITE an astute call though - since although they don't have the stomach to kick us out thoughts clearly turned that way in certain quarters.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Nick Palmer said: "I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead."

    A GE in 2019 is a massive lay and has been for a while. Corbyn speaks with forked tongue. Why on earth would he want an election given the polls?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    For my money if the deal loses with single figures it comes back and eventually passes, so it is just delaying the inevitable. If it gets crushed like May's withdrawal agreement then all bets are off (that seems far fetched 24 hours before the vote but things can quickly change). I don't see a vote tacking a confirmatory referendum on to Bozza's deal getting above 300 votes.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Last night's by-election numbers confirmed the voters have caught up with the polls and the Conservatives now have a solid base of support which means they will not only win an election called in the immediate future but most likely with a landslide majority perhaps on the scale of 1983.

    It's not a prospect I relish quite apart from the gloating of the Conservative-inclined on here because the Conservatives should be apart healing the divisions of Brexit and building a country and society fit for the 2020s but I see next to no evidence of that in Boris's wish list so I expect we will see another round of tax cutting lunacy and more debt for the future.

    For the Opposition, it's about re-grouping and finding a way to harness the disillusionment which will inevitably set in once Boris's promises are shown to be a mirage and leaving the EU doesn't make us the greatest place on Earth.

    I'm very downbeat about the prospects this morning - the future looks like a Conservative boot stamping on a human face forever (though that's a shade Orwellian).

    I’ve learnt that pulling the country together after we have left means shut the fuck up, we won suck it up and no one can criticize the wonderful and glorious leader who can and never has done anything wrong.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Stocky said:

    Things will look very different if this happens (Corbyn`s dream):

    1) Vote on Saturday fails
    2) Boris is obliged to send letter
    3) EU grant extension
    4) 31/10 goes by with us still in EU with no resolution in sight
    5) BXP resurgent

    I`d put chances on above at 50/50.

    1 and 2 are very likely to happen,
    3 is likely to happen, if it does then 4 is almost a certainty.
    5 I'm not so sure about, I think most Brexiteers will stick with Boris.

    It depends on what conditions EU grants an extension and for how long. If Corbyn holds the keys to whether and when an election happens, then the EU can't make the extension dependent on the holding of an election. They could make it dependent on a new referendum.
This discussion has been closed.