If Letwin passes - as likely - Cons abstain on the MV rather than bother to vote 'aye'. Yet you can sell 'ayes' at 313 on the spreads?
Looks like bet of the century so I MUST be missing something.
Yes. It is an important question. I would like to ascertain whether Con abstention is going to occur, because if I knew that I could make some money. Unfortunately PB wants to speak about the 70's referendum or reasons to Brexit or not. So if anybody wants to speak about whether this will or will not happen, I am eager to listen.
Probably because no one has a Scooby whether it will pass or not.
If the Letwin Amendment passes the DUP have more time to put down Amendments to the WAIB and cause a lot of mischief . They need to be seen to be making every effort to protect the Union.
Yes. It is an important question. I would like to ascertain whether Con abstention is going to occur, because if I knew that I could make some money. Unfortunately PB wants to speak about the 70's referendum or reasons to Brexit or not. So if anybody wants to speak about whether this will or will not happen, I am eager to listen.
If Letwin passes -
1. Do we then get a vote on Deal amended with Letwin?
2. Do all the Cons then abstain?
3. Do Labour stay and vote? If so, do they vote 'aye' or 'nay'?
These are the key Qs for the betting, as I see it.
I suspect the Labour civil war is going to go nuclear next week. Once Brexit is voted through a lot of what was keeping things relatively calm is not going to be there anymore.
I am confused. The maths on the MV were tight and some voting for the MV are voting for Letwin and everyone it seems against the MV is voting for Letwin.
Keir Starmer starting magnificently. This is clearly aimed at Labour rebels .
Even though all of the stuff he's talking about is up for grabs after an election, he knows that Labour is unlikely to win an election in the short term.
Anybody come up with any more good reasons for Brexit? Last night we established that the main upside came from freedom to feed our pet chickens our leftovers, which I have to be honest felt a little underwhelming given what we are giving up.
Give me a minute, I’m on the phone to Hamas explaining the advantages of Israel. Get back to you once they’ve agreed
That's a no then.
No, its a "It's not worth answering that question, because you are only asking it to shoot down anything I could possibly say... because its over"
Fuck the DUP. They've been utter exploitative negative barstewards for months. There's nothing they'd ever say "yes" to - nothing.
If they cared that much about the UK and the Union they'd be willing to settle this with a compromise that moved it on and boosted investment, and in their own province in particular.
A few tariffs and regulations either which way isn't going to make any difference to the emotional identity of NI, and it will still be formally outside the EU as well.
They are being ridiculously intransigent.
Months ? Decades more like. Intransigent is what they do, it's their USP, and why their supporters vote for them. "Altogether now the cry was no surrender"etc etc
British nationalism created the DUP. Poetic justice that the DUP is about to cripple British nationalism.
No, Caroline Flint is a traitor to progressive values. She is an ally to a right-wing Tory hard Brexit. She is a friend to bigotry and the xenophobes.
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!
Your post tells us everything we need to know about Corbyn's Labour.
I am Corbyns Labour I think Flint is doing right by her Constituents and right in terms of the Majority that wants BREXIT done.
Sorry, yes. It was a bit of a cheap point. Many in Corbyn's Labour are following their convictions, and act in ways that recognise that others when they disagree have a right to do so. Like any other group though you have some bad eggs in the mix.
I am confused. The maths on the MV were tight and some voting for the MV are voting for Letwin and everyone it seems against the MV is voting for Letwin.
Who is against the MV and against Letwin?
Or alternatively the maths on MV are not as close as reported...
I had a hunch Labour constituency membership up here is likely a bit different in complexion compared to the big city memberships that I reckon journos and others are more familiar with.
If Letwin passes - as likely - Cons abstain on the MV rather than bother to vote 'aye'. Yet you can sell 'ayes' at 313 on the spreads?
Looks like bet of the century so I MUST be missing something.
Yes. It is an important question. I would like to ascertain whether Con abstention is going to occur, because if I knew that I could make some money. Unfortunately PB wants to speak about the 70's referendum or reasons to Brexit or not. So if anybody wants to speak about whether this will or will not happen, I am eager to listen.
Probably because no one has a Scooby whether it will pass or not.
I understand that. But a smaller question which can perhaps be answered is "will the Government ask Con MPs to abstain if Letwin passes?". That in itself skews the probabilities.
Theresa May's deal had a commitment to Level Playing Field in the withdrawal agreement rather than the political declaration and Labour still voted against it. So..
I had a hunch Labour constituency membership up here is likely a bit different in complexion compared to the big city memberships that I reckon journos and others are more familiar with.
I am confused. The maths on the MV were tight and some voting for the MV are voting for Letwin and everyone it seems against the MV is voting for Letwin.
Who is against the MV and against Letwin?
Or alternatively the maths on MV are not as close as reported...
I do wonder; if MV is for example going to win by 15, then Letwin could fail...
1) Deal loses by one vote, that of Theresa May, who turns out that when she said she could never split the UK she actually meant it 2) Deal passes by a casting vote, that of John Bercow
3) Deal passes by one vote, with the LOTO not in the Chamber.
4) UK leaves with No Deal because the Letwin amendment frustrates agreement of a deal in a timely way and the EU refuses an extension.
Check the rules though! Betfair has a specific section in market rules that amendments to today's vote don't change anything. Spin however might claim if Letwin passes that it's no longer a meaningful vote.
Betfair's binary MV passes Yes or No market DOES include amendments.
I suspect the Labour civil war is going to go nuclear next week. Once Brexit is voted through a lot of what was keeping things relatively calm is not going to be there anymore.
Yes. It's time to have one. It is 1983 all over again. It's better to lose by 150 and have a clear out than lose by 50. I am not too worried by ideology. But I do not want to be in the same party as narrow minded nationalists. If I did, I would join the Tories. I want to be a Socialist Internationalist. Oh, where is that Green Party membership form ?
I won't bother to repeat it but needless to say Thomas More's speech as written by Robert Bolt seems apt at this point.
So yes of course you are right. Johnson cannot break the law. What I do believe he would be quite right to do is resign as PM thus avoiding having to enact the ruling.
Thanks heavens for some sense from the leave side of the argument. What do you make of the Letwin amendment, Richard ? As you know he backs the deal (as, FWIW, do I, however reluctantly). Do you really believe it a deliberate wrecking amendment ?
I honestly don't know. I have tried to follow the arguments back and forth here this morning and no one seems to be able to clarify the effect. My inclination is to say it should be taking at face value in which case I understand its underlying reasons - to try and ensure good faith by Johnson - but fear its consequences which might make it easier for Remainers to vote down the WAIB when it returns to Parliament.
Bottom line is I don't know and I am not sure any one else dos either.
Thanks, Richard. That is more or less where I am, too. If there were any trust on either side, it would be unnecessary; sadly there isn’t.
Well the Leave vote deserves contempt so there’s that.
I've found PB has gone a bit.... off... recently.
Might I ask why this vote, but presumably not others held by the United Kingdom, deserves comtempt? If there are other votes that do, please, which ones are they? If it is comtemptable to vote Leave, what should be done about this?
One liners like this add nothing. We need more detail. What should we do, and why?
Where do you want me to start?
Its a xenophobic close-minded regressive project with no positives, that was won on the electorates fears and divisions.
In your opinion. And don't get me wrong, I'm sure a lot of people who voted Leave didn't really understand what they were voting for, as a lot of people who voted Remain didn't understand either.
But those who voted in 1975 who voted 'Stay' may also have been led up the garden path. It even said 'Common Market' on the 1975 ballot. That certainly isn't where we are now with the EU.
It's very easy to just shout 'xenophobia', but, at a guess, you didn't vote Leave? Even if you did you will not be able to know why people voted the way they did.
If Leaving the EU is xenophobic, close-minded regressiveness, then what is: Scotland wanting to leave the UK Wales the same Catalonia wanting to leave Spain California wanting to leave the United States
Presumably, these are all the same?
Ask yourself which side of some of those arguments that the traditionally xenophobic parties (UKIP, BNP, NF, Vox, PP) are on.
The DUP abstaining on Letwin means the game is up today. The dark days came so quickly. Last month, there was talk of a GNU. But the fucking PM's post was so fucking important. I wish they had gone for Layla.
I am confused. The maths on the MV were tight and some voting for the MV are voting for Letwin and everyone it seems against the MV is voting for Letwin.
When you watch Starmer you soon realise why he abandoned his legal career to become a politician. What a bore. And amateur at dressing up his fear mongering. Threatening that the Uk is going to cut holiday allowance to 10 days if we Brexit! I’ve heard it all now.
1) Deal loses by one vote, that of Theresa May, who turns out that when she said she could never split the UK she actually meant it 2) Deal passes by a casting vote, that of John Bercow
3) Deal passes by one vote, with the LOTO not in the Chamber.
4) UK leaves with No Deal because the Letwin amendment frustrates agreement of a deal in a timely way and the EU refuses an extension.
5) In a fit of temper, Boris sends the Revoke letter, resigns and quits the UK to set up his James Bond style retreat on Diego Garcia with a bevy of beauties and a martial arts trained manservant all paid for by writing Richard Littlejohn style pieces of fantasy for the Telegraph and Daily Mail.
I understand that. But a smaller question which can perhaps be answered is "will the Government ask Con MPs to abstain if Letwin passes?". That in itself skews the probabilities.
And what about Labour?
If the MV is the Deal plus Letwin - with Tories abstaining - how do Labour vote?
When you watch Starmer you soon realise why he abandoned his legal career to become a politician. What a bore. And amateur at dressing up his fear mongering. Threatening that the Uk is going to cut holiday allowance to 10 days if we Brexit! I’ve heard it all now.
When you watch Starmer you soon realise why he abandoned his legal career to become a politician. What a bore. And amateur at dressing up his fear mongering. Threatening that the Uk is going to cut holiday allowance to 10 days if we Brexit! I’ve heard it all now.
He is absolutely brilliant.
I’m not sure I could ascribe the term “absolutely brilliant” to any of our current crop of politicians. Marginally more effective, perhaps.
The last absolutely brilliant politician the UK had was probably Blair, for all his faults.
When you watch Starmer you soon realise why he abandoned his legal career to become a politician. What a bore. And amateur at dressing up his fear mongering. Threatening that the Uk is going to cut holiday allowance to 10 days if we Brexit! I’ve heard it all now.
He is absolutely brilliant.
All in the eye of the beholder I guess. Seems like an already over promoted weirdo to my eye.
No, Caroline Flint is a traitor to progressive values. She is an ally to a right-wing Tory hard Brexit. She is a friend to bigotry and the xenophobes.
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!
Caroline Flint has stood up against bigotry and racism many times while most of the Labour Party tacitly endorsed bigotry and anti-Semitism. I would return to voting Labour in an instant if she was leader, rather than the terrorist supporting bigots of Corbyn and McDonnell.
No, Caroline Flint is a traitor to progressive values. She is an ally to a right-wing Tory hard Brexit. She is a friend to bigotry and the xenophobes.
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!
Caroline Flint has stood up against bigotry and racism many times while most of the Labour Party tacitly endorsed bigotry and anti-Semitism. I would return to voting Labour in an instant if she was leader, rather than the terrorist supporting bigots of Corbyn and McDonnell.
Caroline Flint has stood up against bigotry and racism many times while most of the Labour Party tacitly endorsed bigotry and anti-Semitism. I would return to voting Labour in an instant if she was leader, rather than the terrorist supporting bigots of Corbyn and McDonnell.
But you fib relentlessly on here about having voted Remain.
UNS implies 26 gains from Labour offset by 14 losses to LDs and circa 8 to SNP leaving the Tories on 322. 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats have first term incumbency. Labour could expect circa 225 seats after losses to LDs and SNP - ignoring any incumbency effect.
She has shown more spine and independence than most of the Labour Party.
She is a Tory !
She respects voters and doesn't hate Jews.
If that makes you a Tory, prepare for a Johnson landslide.
There will be a Johnson landslide. That is what this country deserves. God help the people of South Yorkshire and Humberside. And, you know what, then they won't be able to moan against the EU anymore.
When you watch Starmer you soon realise why he abandoned his legal career to become a politician. What a bore. And amateur at dressing up his fear mongering. Threatening that the Uk is going to cut holiday allowance to 10 days if we Brexit! I’ve heard it all now.
He is absolutely brilliant.
All in the eye of the beholder I guess. Seems like an already over promoted weirdo to my eye.
She has shown more spine and independence than most of the Labour Party.
She is a Tory !
She respects voters and doesn't hate Jews.
If that makes you a Tory, prepare for a Johnson landslide.
There will be a Johnson landslide. That is what this country deserves. God help the people of South Yorkshire and Humberside. And, you know what, then they won't be able to moan against the EU anymore.
If there was a forced choice: Boris landslide or Corbyn landslide then which would you prefer?
She has shown more spine and independence than most of the Labour Party.
She is a Tory !
She respects voters and doesn't hate Jews.
If that makes you a Tory, prepare for a Johnson landslide.
There will be a Johnson landslide. That is what this country deserves. God help the people of South Yorkshire and Humberside. And, you know what, then they won't be able to moan against the EU anymore.
If there was a forced choice: Boris landslide or Corbyn landslide then which would you prefer?
She has shown more spine and independence than most of the Labour Party.
She is a Tory !
She respects voters and doesn't hate Jews.
If that makes you a Tory, prepare for a Johnson landslide.
There will be a Johnson landslide. That is what this country deserves. God help the people of South Yorkshire and Humberside. And, you know what, then they won't be able to moan against the EU anymore.
If there was a forced choice: Boris landslide or Corbyn landslide then which would you prefer?
On a hypothetical forced choice basis.
Obviously, Corbyn landslide. Why do you ask ?
I thought you despised Corbyn and would only be able to tolerate him if he was constrained by other parties which wouldn't be the case if he had a landslide.
UNS implies 26 gains from Labour offset by 14 losses to LDs and circa 8 to SNP leaving the Tories on 322. 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats have first term incumbency. Labour could expect circa 225 seats after losses to LDs and SNP - ignoring any incumbency effect.
There's no first term incumbency when these new MPs have shown themselves to be a shower of shite.
For the UK left this feels very like 1983. It is divided, impotent, disastrously led and faced with a Prime Minister in complete charge of his own party and with 40% of the country solidly and unwaveringly behind him.
He hasn't burned his supply and confidence partners. He fought for a long time to get democratic consent for Northern Ireland and the province included in UK FTAs. Nobody thought the EU would move that far but Johnson risked it all to do it. That is why people like Trimble came on board. It is just DUP were too uncompromising.
The thing that gets me about Corbyn is not his politics but that he effing useless and on a vanity trip
Swinson is giving you a little more space from Corbyn than Cable did. She needs to improve and do so quite rapidly, but there is a huge opportunity for her.
For the UK left this feels very like 1983. It is divided, impotent, disastrously led and faced with a Prime Minister in complete charge of his own party and with 40% of the country solidly and unwaveringly behind him.
Comments
305 MPs for the Boris Deal, 298 against (13 likely for, 10 likely against)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ktqCioirDDTRnnWd-1WHuA-7mvjuA5C3rTTrYpZ7mkA/htmlview?pli=1&sle=true#
But surely Corbyn is about to win a GE, so there's nothing to worry about.
1. Do we then get a vote on Deal amended with Letwin?
2. Do all the Cons then abstain?
3. Do Labour stay and vote? If so, do they vote 'aye' or 'nay'?
These are the key Qs for the betting, as I see it.
Who is against the MV and against Letwin?
Lets play a game of "Who has whose bollocks in a vice".....
But their 'number of ayes' in MV market does NOT.
#clearasmud
Looks like some detail is being debated now.
Result last time
Lab 15,643
Con 10,384
PC 10,237
UKIP 624
LD 479
PC 5/4
Lab 6/4
Con 3/1
Bxp 50/1
LD 50/1
(Shadsy)
I am not too worried by ideology. But I do not want to be in the same party as narrow minded nationalists. If I did, I would join the Tories.
I want to be a Socialist Internationalist. Oh, where is that Green Party membership form ?
Sadly it looks like his gender is a barrier to him becoming party leader.
That is more or less where I am, too. If there were any trust on either side, it would be unnecessary; sadly there isn’t.
Last month, there was talk of a GNU. But the fucking PM's post was so fucking important.
I wish they had gone for Layla.
A complete dismantling of the so called Bozo promises on workers rights .
If the MV is the Deal plus Letwin - with Tories abstaining - how do Labour vote?
Bold if so. They won't be by tea-time....
If the writing is on the wall now may be the optimal time to name a price.
If that makes you a Tory, prepare for a Johnson landslide.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1185519829731684353
The last absolutely brilliant politician the UK had was probably Blair, for all his faults.
So, you know, pinch of ...
On a hypothetical forced choice basis.
If the electorate decide they want workers rights and consumer protections "downgraded" then they'll vote for that.
I'd be surprised if they do personally and I can't see any government winning an election on such a platform...
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s moved some Labour for yes to no .
Loved your 'tool' comment - very witty - but TBH if you genuinely think he's a tool, you are allowing political bias to cloud your judgement.
Which is understandable. I can usually avoid that, but it's quite a rare thing.
Scotland 1983, no.