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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face contempt of court proceedings

On Monday the Prime Minister will be ordered by the Court to send the letter and/or the Court will sign it himself. If the Prime Minister does not send the letter by the deadline tonight we *will* bring contempt of court proceedings against him personally. pic.twitter.com/DVQl1DK2g6

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    First. Like Letwin.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 297
    Has there been such a sustained period of political chaos since the war?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    edited October 2019
    Second, like LCFC in the league
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Given the Government;s weak Parliamentary position, there must be doubt as to its ability to control the passage of the WAIB .Whether relying on Programme Orders or a Guillotine Motion, without DUP support there is surely the potential to delay significantly.

    Yet more delays and silly games. I can see that being popular in the country.
    That's not the focus anymore (and it would be popular with half the country anyway). It's about whether Brexit can be stopped or not - the bill is the last fight, of course it will be rancrous.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Andrew said:

    blueblue said:


    Boris: Ah, here is the tracking number and the phone number for you to call. The former will tell you that it was posted from Victoria Street SW1, and the latter will keep you on hold for the next few weeks. Good luck!

    Just needs to send it by Yodel, no chance it arrives.
    Nah, Parcelforce. They tried to deliver then took away a package to me, despite the box itself (not the labels, the box) being covered in messages from the sender saying 'do not return this to the depot, does not need a siganture, leave in a safe place, must be delivered today, perishable'. Fools.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    I thought Sammy Wilson put the DUP position succinctly, paraphrasing - "we are pro BREXIT but will not vote for it for GB without it including NI".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    A second source. Trouble brewing.

    Almost certainly the same source
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Yeah, Macron is really committed to a text message.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kle4 said:

    Yeah, Macron is really committed to a text message.
    It's up to MPs if they want to risk it, I'm just reporting what's been said and that it casts some doubt on an extension
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284
    None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,228
    The letter will be sent. The EU will ignore it until they get clarity on whether the deal will be accepted or not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    I still think the PM will be quite happy to see a week of headlines about court cases - especially Scottish court cases - and that he’ll hope to get the Brexit Bill passed without sending the letter.

    He’s obviously spoken to EU leaders about this scenario, and co-ordinated replies will be forthcoming over the next hours.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    EPG said:

    None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.

    The next GE will be a bloodbath - not sure whose blood though. The electorate's been bled dry.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    edited October 2019
    The whole point of leaving No deal on table was to show EU we are serious about walking away from negotiating and having no deal in order to frighten them into giving us a generous deal.

    We’ve got a deal. If win win and great for U.K. is lost in politics. But negotiating with EU is over.

    So, ahem, excuse me whilst I clear my throat, WHY IS NO DEAL STILL AN OPTION FOR THIS GOVERNMENT?

    Simple answer. It ain’t.
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882
    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If BoZo and the rest of the fuckwit brigade had voted for it in March we would be out by now...

    Any and all anger should be reserved for them
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882
    Scott_P said:

    If BoZo and the rest of the fuckwit brigade had voted for it in March we would be out by now...

    Any and all anger should be reserved for them

    Not true, obviously maths isn't your strong point Scott. Mays deal will never pass, this one probably will.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    EPG said:

    None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.

    The next GE will be a bloodbath - not sure whose blood though. The electorate's been bled dry.
    As others have suggested, an election with the 650 incumbents all barred from standing would be a fitting reward.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,228

    EPG said:

    None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.

    The next GE will be a bloodbath - not sure whose blood though. The electorate's been bled dry.
    Hopefully it’ll see the end of Corbyn and Labour can choose someone electable. Though knowing our luck they’ll elect Rebecca Long-Bailey and will be destined for more years in the wilderness.
  • If there was another referendum I wonder how the result would look in Northern Ireland.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    EPG said:

    None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.

    The next GE will be a bloodbath - not sure whose blood though. The electorate's been bled dry.
    Today made some very very amusing labour losses inevitable.
    Also, how irrelevant does Corbyn seem now? Hes becoming yesterdays man
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    I am surprised they are this direct about th eneed for a vote
    Scott_P said:

    If BoZo and the rest of the fuckwit brigade had voted for it in March we would be out by now...

    Any and all anger should be reserved for them

    Well not all, but a lot of it. Particularly since many of them baulked as the DUP were not on side, and they are even more not on side now.
  • Zephyr said:

    The whole point of leaving No deal on table was to show EU we are serious about walking away from negotiating and having no deal in order to frighten them into giving us a generous deal.

    We’ve got a deal. If win win and great for U.K. is lost in politics. But negotiating with EU is over.

    So, ahem, excuse me whilst I clear my throat, WHY IS NO DEAL STILL AN OPTION FOR THIS GOVERNMENT?

    Simple answer. It ain’t.

    Just as wrong now as you were on the previous thread. Johnson having got a deal makes it of course a lot more likely we leave with a deal. But at the same time it has clearly hardened the EU against any further significant delays. So if this deal falls it is extremely unlikely the EU will grant a further extension (although of course not impossible)

    In that case we will be looking at No Deal just as we were before. The dates may change slightly but the underlying dynamics of all of this remain the same.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brom said:

    maths isn't your strong point

    May had a majority. If Bozo and fuckwit brigade had voted for it, it would have passed.

    BoZo then pissed it away.
  • Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    maths isn't your strong point

    May had a majority. If Bozo and fuckwit brigade had voted for it, it would have passed.

    BoZo then pissed it away.
    Ah, I assume you are counting Grieve et al. as a part of the "fuckwit brigade" then?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).
  • Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    Thing is, if he hadn't do you really think we would be looking at the possibility of a Deal passing this week? I would suggest that Johnson, for all his many, many faults, has succeeded in concentrating minds on all sides of the argument in a way May found absolutely impossible top achieve.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    Someone posed an interesting question the other day.

    If BoZo had campaigned for the leadership on this deal (screwing the DUP)

    1. would he have won?
    2. by a bigger margin?

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,304
    "The DUP care more about the Union than they do about Brexit. It is as simple as that. "
    Anyone who doubted this first sentence was delusional.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481
    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass.

    So basically MPs are just stringing this out, making themeselves look like fools and generally tormenting everyone for absolutely **** all then?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786


    Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post
  • Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    Thing is, if he hadn't do you really think we would be looking at the possibility of a Deal passing this week? I would suggest that Johnson, for all his many, many faults, has succeeded in concentrating minds on all sides of the argument in a way May found absolutely impossible top achieve.
    Mays approach was doomed to fail. It does not follow all alternative approaches were doomed to fail. Stewart would have got a deal through in a very different way, with a far less divided nation.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481
    eristdoof said:

    "The DUP care more about the Union than they do about Brexit. It is as simple as that. "
    Anyone who doubted this first sentence was delusional.

    Personally I'd bung ROI and bunch of money to take them off our hands! :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Baker says Boris will comply with the law. Civil service and law officers wont let him do otherwise, even if he wanted to,
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    numbertwelvesaid: "Hopefully it’ll see the end of Corbyn and Labour can choose someone electable. Though knowing our luck they’ll elect Rebecca Long-Bailey and will be destined for more years in the wilderness."

    Could be worse than Rebecca Long-Bailey - I wouldn`t want Richard Burgon to run with scissors.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019

    Baker says Boris will comply with the law. Civil service and law officers wont let him do otherwise, even if he wanted to,

    Cherry was looking forward to going to court too
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Looks like Pidcock is up next on early Newsnight. Labour's future?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,228
    When the history of this period in British politics is written, the 2017 election will be seen (to the extent it isn’t already) as a tragedy.

    It was a personal tragedy for May because it doomed her to political failure and she should never have called it. It also left us with a parliamentary arithmetic that locked the country in limbo, precipitating crisis upon crisis and exacerbating division.

    We would have been better off with a majority government of any colour, or at least a stable coalition.


  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    Numbertwelve said: "The letter will be sent. The EU will ignore it until they get clarity on whether the deal will be accepted or not."

    Yes, I think this is very likely. A smart move.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,446

    Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post

    Didn't hear it myself, but apparently he said on Sky this morning he'd vote Yes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    GIN1138 said:

    eristdoof said:

    "The DUP care more about the Union than they do about Brexit. It is as simple as that. "
    Anyone who doubted this first sentence was delusional.

    Personally I'd bung ROI and bunch of money to take them off our hands! :D
    The cash should be directed to the top of the Notts/S Yorkshire border - where all 3 MPs within a hundred yards of me put country before party today.
  • RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).
    I think that is almost true. Some scrutiny will take place, 95% of MPs are already decided. Some things could be added to the text of the agreement, moving back workers rights or security from PD to WA would be fine with the EU so are plausible and may get Labour votes across. But yes it is mostly theatre, just as the PM plays to the gallery so can his opponents.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    When the history of this period in British politics is written, the 2017 election will be seen (to the extent it isn’t already) as a tragedy.

    It was a personal tragedy for May because it doomed her to political failure and she should never have called it. It also left us with a parliamentary arithmetic that locked the country in limbo, precipitating crisis upon crisis and exacerbating division.

    We would have been better off with a majority government of any colour, or at least a stable coalition.


    Its the electorate that caused the impasse.. the decision to call the election looked solid at the time, until the loony idea on pensioner benefits.. That's what fecked it.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284

    When the history of this period in British politics is written, the 2017 election will be seen (to the extent it isn’t already) as a tragedy.

    It was a personal tragedy for May because it doomed her to political failure and she should never have called it. It also left us with a parliamentary arithmetic that locked the country in limbo, precipitating crisis upon crisis and exacerbating division.

    We would have been better off with a majority government of any colour, or at least a stable coalition.


    And yet it's not evident that governance has been particularly poor compared to 1997-2017 or 2015-2017. Economic growth and employment have been strong, there is less prejudice against the poor and foreigners, and the hung parliament has even lasted longer than its majority predecessor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).
    Which is why international treaties have always been a job for the executive rather than the legislature. There is nothing to scrutinise or amend here, they can read it and decide either that they agree or disagree with implementing the Treaty.
  • Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    Thing is, if he hadn't do you really think we would be looking at the possibility of a Deal passing this week? I would suggest that Johnson, for all his many, many faults, has succeeded in concentrating minds on all sides of the argument in a way May found absolutely impossible top achieve.

    I agree. I think he is leading us to long term trouble, but he has played Brexit brilliantly. There is no doubt about that. And I think he has done a genuinely good thing with regards to Ireland. It’s also very good news for the UK’s international standing.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    Andrew said:

    Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post

    Didn't hear it myself, but apparently he said on Sky this morning he'd vote Yes.
    What did he do today
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    mwadams said:

    Has there been such a sustained period of political chaos since the war?

    The 1970s, the lights went out, inflation, pickets, strikes, hung parliaments or only small majorities, bailouts from the IMF, talk of coups, talk of private armies, NI troubles etc...
  • Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    maths isn't your strong point

    May had a majority. If Bozo and fuckwit brigade had voted for it, it would have passed.

    BoZo then pissed it away.
    May had a majority until the 2017 election, the deal was agreed after than and she ran a minority government. Idiot.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    mwadams said:

    Has there been such a sustained period of political chaos since the war?

    The 1970s, the lights went out, inflation, pickets, strikes, hung parliaments or only small majorities, bailouts from the IMF, talk of coups, talk of private armies etc...
    lets not forget rubbish piled high in the streets causing rat infestations and dead bodies not being buried.. a disgraceful period.
  • RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

    The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882
    edited October 2019

    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    maths isn't your strong point

    May had a majority. If Bozo and fuckwit brigade had voted for it, it would have passed.

    BoZo then pissed it away.
    May had a majority until the 2017 election, the deal was agreed after than and she ran a minority government. Idiot.
    It's fine Scott gets all his info from Ian Dunt on twitter. He also thinks Grieve and Bebb are 'fuckwits'
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502
    Sandpit said:

    I still think the PM will be quite happy to see a week of headlines about court cases - especially Scottish court cases - and that he’ll hope to get the Brexit Bill passed without sending the letter.

    He’s obviously spoken to EU leaders about this scenario, and co-ordinated replies will be forthcoming over the next hours.

    I think he'll send the letter, but won't expect a speedy reply.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,304
    Pulpstar said:

    Andrew said:

    Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post

    Didn't hear it myself, but apparently he said on Sky this morning he'd vote Yes.
    What did he do today
    Voted Against (The Letwin ammendment).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    she ran a minority government.

    She had a majority with the DUP.

    Unlike BoZo.

    Idiot.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    Pidcock on Newsnight: dreadful. Doesn`t pronounce her T`s.

  • Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    I still think the PM will be quite happy to see a week of headlines about court cases - especially Scottish court cases - and that he’ll hope to get the Brexit Bill passed without sending the letter.

    He’s obviously spoken to EU leaders about this scenario, and co-ordinated replies will be forthcoming over the next hours.

    I think he'll send the letter, but won't expect a speedy reply.
    And if it is a speedy reply it won't be an extension.

    A response of "we can't consider this request until there's been a Meaningful Vote in Parliament" would be enough to concentrate minds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Stocky said:

    Numbertwelve said: "The letter will be sent. The EU will ignore it until they get clarity on whether the deal will be accepted or not."

    Yes, I think this is very likely. A smart move.

    A surprisingly smart move. Totally reasonable to, as it doesn't force a particular choice on us, only a choice, whilst they can as a last resort grant something if we still haven't got back to them on 31st.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    When the history of this period in British politics is written, the 2017 election will be seen (to the extent it isn’t already) as a tragedy.

    It was a personal tragedy for May because it doomed her to political failure and she should never have called it. It also left us with a parliamentary arithmetic that locked the country in limbo, precipitating crisis upon crisis and exacerbating division.

    We would have been better off with a majority government of any colour, or at least a stable coalition.


    GE2017: when a crucial few % points of Remainers who would otherwise never have voted for him plumped for Corbyn as the champion of Remain, and thus fucked any kind of sensible exit up for years.

    Well done, chaps, well done :frowning:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

    The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

    How can he make good on them if the wording of the text can't change?
  • kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    Numbertwelve said: "The letter will be sent. The EU will ignore it until they get clarity on whether the deal will be accepted or not."

    Yes, I think this is very likely. A smart move.

    A surprisingly smart move. Totally reasonable to, as it doesn't force a particular choice on us, only a choice, whilst they can as a last resort grant something if we still haven't got back to them on 31st.
    Or not grant something if they think we're being silly and messing them around.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    edited October 2019

    Looks like Pidcock is up next on early Newsnight. Labour's future?

    Not if they want to be elected she isn’t. Not for at least a decade anyway. She gave the impression today that she didn’t have a clue about what she was speaking, just reading words from the page. I’d love someone to ask her what a Customs Union is and how it works.

    Edit. Bollocks I was confusing her with R L-B. Pidcock is even worse though.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Scott_P said:

    she ran a minority government.

    She had a majority with the DUP.

    Unlike BoZo.

    Idiot.
    A majority with the DUP is no fucking majority at all, as they have just proved.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    mwadams said:

    Has there been such a sustained period of political chaos since the war?

    The 1970s, the lights went out, inflation, pickets, strikes, hung parliaments or only small majorities, bailouts from the IMF, talk of coups, talk of private armies etc...
    lets not forget rubbish piled high in the streets causing rat infestations and dead bodies not being buried.. a disgraceful period.
    Indeed, turmoil! I don't think the current problems compare. Just my opinion.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).
    I think that is almost true. Some scrutiny will take place, 95% of MPs are already decided. Some things could be added to the text of the agreement, moving back workers rights or security from PD to WA would be fine with the EU so are plausible and may get Labour votes across. But yes it is mostly theatre, just as the PM plays to the gallery so can his opponents.
    I think there is almost no chance of any further modification to the agreed text.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    Why won`t Ladrokes take a double on Hoyle as next speaker and 2020 as next GE? Not an associated bet surely.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.
  • Baker and Grieve on Sky atm with Baker sounding reasonable and statesmanlike of the two of them talking about compromise . . . what is happening? Have we slipped into a parallel universe?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    blueblue said:

    A majority with the DUP is no fucking majority at all, as they have just proved.

    But BoZo is not with the DUP, having thrown them under a Boris Bus to get the deal approved in Brussels.

    Something "No British PM could ever do"...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502
    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    blueblue said:


    Boris: Ah, here is the tracking number and the phone number for you to call. The former will tell you that it was posted from Victoria Street SW1, and the latter will keep you on hold for the next few weeks. Good luck!

    Just needs to send it by Yodel, no chance it arrives.
    Nah, Parcelforce. They tried to deliver then took away a package to me, despite the box itself (not the labels, the box) being covered in messages from the sender saying 'do not return this to the depot, does not need a siganture, leave in a safe place, must be delivered today, perishable'. Fools.
    My favourite courier story will always be the one about a card notifying the recipient that the package had been left in safe place, with the word "bin" written next to it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Pulpstar said:

    Andrew said:

    Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post

    Didn't hear it myself, but apparently he said on Sky this morning he'd vote Yes.
    What did he do today
    Against Letwin
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

    The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

    What do these things mean in practice, would it for example oblige us to follow suit if the EU decided to mandate a four-day working week?
  • Pulpstar said:

    One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

    Indeed. Leavers are united voting for this deal, so there's no excuse anymore not to pass it.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,228
    One of the main motivators for many opposition parties to support the Benn Act, and to play the silly games of recent weeks around election timings, was that it was felt sending the letter would politically weaken Johnson, he’d break his vow and everyone could crow about what a failure he was.

    Since the new deal has been agreed, however, I have a feeling it won’t have the desired impact. It looks like MPs are playing weird procedural chess to force Boris into an unnecessary act. Not sure it’s going to play on the doorsteps the way that Labour, for instance, would have liked.

    Still, the election when it comes will be fascinating.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Interesting that Hoey did not vote with the DUP on the Letwin amendment, even though she will be against the Deal.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    Pulpstar said: "One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers."

    Yep. That`s why even though I didn`t vote to leave I prefer this deal to May`s. You can`t have a binary referendum and then deny the victors the spoils.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

    That's not obviously true either.

    May was not acceptable to Leavers. BoZo is. The deal is irrelevant.

    Which says much about Leavers in general...
  • Scott_P said:

    she ran a minority government.

    She had a majority with the DUP.

    Unlike BoZo.

    Idiot.
    No she didn't have a majority. She had a minority government with confidence and supply.

    The DUP would have needed to be in a formal coalition for it to be a majority.

    Idiot.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,304
    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).
    First of all you made that 99% up. But even so 1% undecided is 6 or 7 MPs, given that most think this is on a knife edge, it is wrong to say it makes no difference.

    The handful of MPs who are floating are probably the most likely to be persuaded by the fine print in the WA and PD.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Scott_P said:

    blueblue said:

    A majority with the DUP is no fucking majority at all, as they have just proved.

    But BoZo is not with the DUP, having thrown them under a Boris Bus to get the deal approved in Brussels.

    Something "No British PM could ever do"...
    Well he just did it. Why on earth should he be bound by something his predecessor said?
  • Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

    That's not obviously true either.

    May was not acceptable to Leavers. BoZo is. The deal is irrelevant.

    Which says much about Leavers in general...
    The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    She had a minority government with confidence and supply.

    And BoZo doesn't.

    Idiot.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,304
    Can we stop calling other posters "idiots" please.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

    It really isn't. Ask the DUP...

    And the headbangers voted for it because they still think BoZo will crash out on No Deal terms.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,713
    edited October 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

    Indeed. Leavers are united voting for this deal, so there's no excuse anymore not to pass it.
    MPs who lost the referendum lied to get elected so they could vote Brexit down. When will people realise that just because they call themselves "progressive" politicians, it doesn't mean they don't tell enormous lies to get power.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    eristdoof said:

    Can we stop calling other posters "idiots" please.

    I was referring to BoZo.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,228
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).
    I think that is almost true. Some scrutiny will take place, 95% of MPs are already decided. Some things could be added to the text of the agreement, moving back workers rights or security from PD to WA would be fine with the EU so are plausible and may get Labour votes across. But yes it is mostly theatre, just as the PM plays to the gallery so can his opponents.
    I think there is almost no chance of any further modification to the agreed text.
    There will probably be a tussle around a second referendum (that will go down) and some amendment around a legal commitment to maintain the same standard of workers and environmental rights (which the government would be wise to accept as it probably brings more Labour leavers on board).
  • One of the main motivators for many opposition parties to support the Benn Act, and to play the silly games of recent weeks around election timings, was that it was felt sending the letter would politically weaken Johnson, he’d break his vow and everyone could crow about what a failure he was.

    Since the new deal has been agreed, however, I have a feeling it won’t have the desired impact. It looks like MPs are playing weird procedural chess to force Boris into an unnecessary act. Not sure it’s going to play on the doorsteps the way that Labour, for instance, would have liked.

    Still, the election when it comes will be fascinating.

    I said all along the letter would not be a pivotal moment as we the voters aren't idiots and can see who sent the letter in reality. Complying with the law just means those who voted for the law are responsible.

    Now that there's this deal it matters even less. A stupid letter that has been sent due to MPs playing parlor games won't impress anyone, let alone our EU partners or voters.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    Scott_P said: "That's not obviously true either. May was not acceptable to Leavers. BoZo is. The deal is irrelevant. Which says much about Leavers in general..."

    No - Unlike May`s, Boris`s deal allows GB to agree trade deals round the world as there is no fear of being trapped in backstop.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

    The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

    What do these things mean in practice, would it for example oblige us to follow suit if the EU decided to mandate a four-day working week?
    Hardly compatible with parliament being sovereign, is it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

    That's not obviously true either.

    May was not acceptable to Leavers. BoZo is. The deal is irrelevant.

    Which says much about Leavers in general...
    I preferred May's deal but then again I voted to remain - leaver's consent as Meeks and others have put it a few times on here is very important.
  • Scott_P said:

    eristdoof said:

    Can we stop calling other posters "idiots" please.

    I was referring to BoZo.
    I was not. Sorry eristdoof.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    Scott_P said:

    The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

    It really isn't. Ask the DUP...

    And the headbangers voted for it because they still think BoZo will crash out on No Deal terms.
    Have they actually said that, or are we well into the realm of crazed speculation?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,004

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    I still think the PM will be quite happy to see a week of headlines about court cases - especially Scottish court cases - and that he’ll hope to get the Brexit Bill passed without sending the letter.

    He’s obviously spoken to EU leaders about this scenario, and co-ordinated replies will be forthcoming over the next hours.

    I think he'll send the letter, but won't expect a speedy reply.
    And if it is a speedy reply it won't be an extension.

    A response of "we can't consider this request until there's been a Meaningful Vote in Parliament" would be enough to concentrate minds.
    There probably can't be a speedy reply as the European Council needs to meet in order to give one and I doubt that could be done until well into next week Heads of government are busy people
This discussion has been closed.