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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face

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  • isamisam Posts: 30,713

    Kind of on Topic

    What happened to Maugham's ludicrous attempts to prevent Johnson laying the Deal before Parliament?

    Laughed out of court.

    He's back Monday trying to get Boris banged up if he doesn't send the letter
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    Baker and Grieve on Sky atm with Baker sounding reasonable and statesmanlike of the two of them talking about compromise . . . what is happening? Have we slipped into a parallel universe?

    Remainers completely lost the plot today.

    They didn't believe Boris would get a deal and so thought it would be Benn Vs No Deal.

    But Boris did get a deal and by using Benn to block the deal they may well have blown themselves up.
    The only thing that motivates Flint is job preservation: Her job! She will look well if she votes (against what she really thinks)for the BJ deal and he then gets the election and she consequently loses...
    She, in comparison with far too many MPs elected on both sides of the house, has been honest and consistent.
    She voted Remain! She was an advocate for Remain and staying in the EU. She has no principle at all apart from her job preservation. The point is she might think she is saving her job but if she helps BJ, she could be creating the circumstances of her own defeat in an early election. Sometimes, you have to accept sacrifice for the greater good than implement a policy that will likley adversely impact the people you represent. If she continues to advocate and support a remain strategy, there is no cast iron law that it will lead to her defeat. Politics is about judgements, she is wrong to put her job first imo.
  • Kind of on Topic

    What happened to Maugham's ludicrous attempts to prevent Johnson laying the Deal before Parliament?

    Thrown out and he apologised to the court
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,463
    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    murali_s said:

    Been out all day at a b'day party.

    Who were the Labour MPs who voted against the Letwin amendment?

    One was Caroline Flint....

    I don't understand what these people are doing in the Labour Party? Hopefully not for much longer
    Barron, Campbell, Fitzpatrick, Mann and Hoey are all standing down at the next election/about to enter the Lords as an independent.

    So they won't be Labour MPs for much longer.

    That Flint is standing again demonstrates that her stance, even if she thinks it is to help her reelection, and even if you think it a terrible stance, is principled.
    Then she should move to the Tories / Brexit party - that would be more principled.
  • kle4 said:

    Even a delay of 48 hours changes the dynamic and brings the concessions made by Johnson in order to be able to claim victory under greater scrutiny. The theoretical majority for the deal could evaporate quickly.

    That is certainly the plan. It will come down to how many of the Labour deal supporters find the things they said won them over are not as firm as they thought? How committed are they to that path now?

    Having declared a position it can become a lot harder to change it, which was another reason for no MV of course - the psycological effect of not approving.
    The labour deal supporters are, by and large, a group that want to vote for a deal purely because they fear the backlash from their constituents if they don’t. I’m not sure a couple of days extra to think about the actual terms of the deal on offer will do much to shift their minds on the issue.
    I am not sure that is true. Just as there are principled Remain supporters on both sides there are also principled Leave supporters on both sides. Respecting the vote is a view which crosses party lines and not just for reasons of self preservation.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    edited October 2019
    Quick question.

    Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?
  • CD13 said:

    MPs playing silly buggers as usual. Time to get rid,

    Not happening though is it?

    Even if/when there is a GE the majority of MPs will be safely returned.
    Not the ones who have had the Whip removed and won't get it back.....yes, Grieve, I'm looking at you.....
    And Bebb
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,777

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.
    The UK deserves to be punished for voting the wrong way meme is alive & well I see.....
    LOL, the unionists have really blown it , only a matter of time now.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,215
    The Lawfare to block ANY Brexit continues

  • FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

    It really isn't. Ask the DUP...

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.
    It trades off a common UK approach for the ability of part of the UK (England really) to diverge from the EU. In doing so it separates Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Whether rUK will actually diverge from the EU is not known at this point. It could run the gamut all the way from No Deal to Full Vassal State. The softer the Brexit agreed the less divergence there will be between NI and rUK. Arguably, the Johnson Deal allows more flexibility. Against that, the May Deal locks in UK access to EU markets. The Johnson Deal weakens the UK negotiating hand for the next and more important stage. If you are fed up with Brexit "want it done", the Johnson Deal leaves it much less done than the May Deal. It sets us up for a lot more debilitating argument.

    I'm clear the May Deal is better than the Johnson one because it limits the damage for the UK somewhat.

    I am not sure I agree. Giving the Irish what they wanted is undoubtedly a major landmark in UK history and will do a huge amount for how we are perceived internationally. Given how damaging Brexit will be, that really matters IMO. We could have made ourselves a pariah state. We have chosen not to.

  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

    The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

    How can he make good on them if the wording of the text can't change?

    A government amendment to the withdrawal act would do the trick, wouldn’t it?

    The withdrawal act already enshrines all EU laws as UK laws.

    In the future a government might change the law, but that's always the case, no Parliament can bind its successor.

    Of course - but this government can bind itself.

    No it can't. This government can make commitments but it can't bind itself.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Stocky said:

    Why won`t Ladrokes take a double on Hoyle as next speaker and 2020 as next GE? Not an associated bet surely.

    It probably is to a degree. The two things aren't independent, as if there was a GE called before Bercow steps down, then it would affect Hoyle's chances of being speaker. (Partly because the parliamentary makeup would be different and partly because he would have to win Chorley himself to be a candidate)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited October 2019
    If the deal wins by five next week, the recriminations in the labour movement will be big, and will probably stretch to include the positions taken by Corbyn, too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    murali_s said:

    Been out all day at a b'day party.

    Who were the Labour MPs who voted against the Letwin amendment?

    One was Caroline Flint....

    I don't understand what these people are doing in the Labour Party? Hopefully not for much longer
    Barron, Campbell, Fitzpatrick, Mann and Hoey are all standing down at the next election/about to enter the Lords as an independent.

    So they won't be Labour MPs for much longer.

    That Flint is standing again demonstrates that her stance, even if she thinks it is to help her reelection, and even if you think it a terrible stance, is principled.
    You might be right..Flint may well be principled, but those principles quite frankly do not belong in the Labour movement....
    I'll leave that to the Labour voters to determine, but its true that merely being principled is not in itself a good thing. But fair play to her for directness and honesty in her approach, in contrast to some others. Lamb seems to have been pretty reasonable, by not constantly and publicly thinking about doing something then not doing it, his approach of voting against after some consideration seemed genuine.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,777
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.

    I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.

    If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.

    As a Unionist, I disagree.
    Not only that but we'll be allowing a foreign entity, over which have zero influence, to exercise political and economic power over a sizeable chunk of our country. Surely that's the very definition of treachery.
    And that "sizeable chunk of our country" can withdraw from that arrangement should they so wish. Surely thats the very definition of democracy?
    An observation to treasure.
    Never refuted Scotland's right to leave the Union - the objection was and is to the SNP's fatuous and fraudulent prospectus.
    How odd. I recall Better Together assuring us that only by staying in the UK could Scotland remain in the EU. Did you not make that argument yourself? (Sorry - it was a long time ago ...)
    LOL, emigrant unhappy that Scotland wants democracy
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What? IDS was talking crap? Surely not...

  • murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    murali_s said:

    Been out all day at a b'day party.

    Who were the Labour MPs who voted against the Letwin amendment?

    One was Caroline Flint....

    I don't understand what these people are doing in the Labour Party? Hopefully not for much longer
    Barron, Campbell, Fitzpatrick, Mann and Hoey are all standing down at the next election/about to enter the Lords as an independent.

    So they won't be Labour MPs for much longer.

    That Flint is standing again demonstrates that her stance, even if she thinks it is to help her reelection, and even if you think it a terrible stance, is principled.
    Then she should move to the Tories / Brexit party - that would be more principled.
    Why? Do you not believe it is possible to be a Socialist Eurosceptic? I am sure dear old Tony Benn would have something to say about that.

    I don't believe Ken Clarke should leave the party because he is a Europhile. Neither should Labour Eurosceptics be forced out of their party.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481

    GIN1138 said:

    Baker and Grieve on Sky atm with Baker sounding reasonable and statesmanlike of the two of them talking about compromise . . . what is happening? Have we slipped into a parallel universe?

    Remainers completely lost the plot today.

    They didn't believe Boris would get a deal and so thought it would be Benn Vs No Deal.

    But Boris did get a deal and by using Benn to block the deal they may well have blown themselves up.
    Caroline should become leader of the National Labour Party.

    I'd vote for her. :)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,215
    Amusingly I see big business wants the MP's to agree the deal.


    But oh no, they hold out for revoke - against the wishes of the people.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    murali_s said:

    Been out all day at a b'day party.

    Who were the Labour MPs who voted against the Letwin amendment?

    One was Caroline Flint....

    I don't understand what these people are doing in the Labour Party? Hopefully not for much longer
    Barron, Campbell, Fitzpatrick, Mann and Hoey are all standing down at the next election/about to enter the Lords as an independent.

    So they won't be Labour MPs for much longer.

    That Flint is standing again demonstrates that her stance, even if she thinks it is to help her reelection, and even if you think it a terrible stance, is principled.
    Then she should move to the Tories / Brexit party - that would be more principled.
    Her CLP evidently do not agree with you, but it is not my party to judge.
  • viewcode said:

    Quick question.

    Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?

    I expect it to be much the same but please do not take my advice. It is too volatile just now
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    edited October 2019

    Kind of on Topic

    What happened to Maugham's ludicrous attempts to prevent Johnson laying the Deal before Parliament?

    Tilting at windmills.
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.
    The UK deserves to be punished for voting the wrong way meme is alive & well I see.....
    LOL, the unionists have really blown it , only a matter of time now.
    I'd rank the results in order for the SNP

    Best - No deal
    2nd Best May's deal
    3rd Best Boris' deal
    worst Remain
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,215
    Scott_P said:
    How many mp's stated the vote to leave had to be honoured and then are doing anything they can to thwart leaving?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,777

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.

    I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.

    If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.

    As a Unionist, I disagree.
    Not only that but we'll be allowing a foreign entity, over which have zero influence, to exercise political and economic power over a sizeable chunk of our country. Surely that's the very definition of treachery.
    And that "sizeable chunk of our country" can withdraw from that arrangement should they so wish. Surely thats the very definition of democracy?
    An observation to treasure.
    Unbelievable but a much larger chunk of our country is not allowed a vote the majority have voted for and that is the very opposite of democracy.
  • Scott_P said:

    What? IDS was talking crap? Surely not...

    The key is how long and when will they grant it
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

    The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

    How can he make good on them if the wording of the text can't change?

    A government amendment to the withdrawal act would do the trick, wouldn’t it?

    The withdrawal act already enshrines all EU laws as UK laws.

    In the future a government might change the law, but that's always the case, no Parliament can bind its successor.

    Of course - but this government can bind itself.

    No it can't. This government can make commitments but it can't bind itself.

    I take legislation to be binding until it is superseded or revoked.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387

    GIN1138 said:

    Baker and Grieve on Sky atm with Baker sounding reasonable and statesmanlike of the two of them talking about compromise . . . what is happening? Have we slipped into a parallel universe?

    Remainers completely lost the plot today.

    They didn't believe Boris would get a deal and so thought it would be Benn Vs No Deal.

    But Boris did get a deal and by using Benn to block a deal they may well have blown themselves up.
    Grieve clearly rattled by it all on Sky. His plans are in ruins and he knows it, and hes ended his parliamentary career for nothing.
    Grieve is a strange fellow. He has tied himself in knots trying to come up with some weird justification for the actions he takes. Yet he does not appear to be able to come out and say “yes I think the decision the people took was wrong and I want to do everything in the rule book to stop us leaving the EU” which surely must be his main motivation.

    I would have much more respect for him if he’d just be frank and honest.
    At least the Lib Dems are honest. Grieve is a shyster.
    The most obvious shyster is Johnson! A lower form of life indeed.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,463
    Scott_P said:
    This is blindingly obvious!

    Boris Johnson is a mendacious disingenuous buffoon who only cares about himself. It shows in his personal life as well as his professional life.

    Why all the people can't see that, God only knows!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    I can’t understand what the fuss is about all that has happened is that HMG have to reorder the process, pass the WAIB then seek the meaningful vote . It can all go through by 31/10 all he has to do is send the letter which if he asks for the extension only to be implemented if he fails to pas the package what’s the problem? Now if giving people time to study the agreement means it may reduce its chance of passing then fair enough. To present MPs with 583 pages os deal text on the morning of the vote is a little dubious. If the deal is so good and better than the one we currently have then it should pass with a majority of 450
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    If the EU can’t move the plenary session then unless the government gets its MV5 and at the same time can avoid the Letwin Amendment on Monday an extension will have to be offered before the end of next week .

    If the EP can’t ratify before the 31st October then that’s it , the UK won’t be leaving by then.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,777

    Banterman said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.

    I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.

    If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.

    As a Unionist, I disagree.
    What rot the 2nd point is. If the EU can afford to subsidise: Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Croatia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovak Republic, Greece, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta - all of whom have a significantly lower GDP per capita than Scotland - then it can affor to 'subsidise' Scotland.
    Away you halfwit we will not need anyone to subsidise us, we will do as we do now we will subsidise the EU as any normal human beings would do , knowing that if we are ever in trouble then someone will help us , not blled us dry and insult us.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,713
    Ireland about to lose to UAE in the t20. Not a good day for their sports teams
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    Pulpstar said:

    Kind of on Topic

    What happened to Maugham's ludicrous attempts to prevent Johnson laying the Deal before Parliament?

    Tilting at windmills.
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.
    The UK deserves to be punished for voting the wrong way meme is alive & well I see.....
    LOL, the unionists have really blown it , only a matter of time now.
    I'd rank the results in order for the SNP

    Best - No deal
    2nd Best May's deal
    3rd Best Boris' deal
    worst Remain
    Yes - Johnson's deal makes the case more difficult as there will be no way around a hard border with Scotland's biggest market if it wants to rejoin the EU.

    In May's possibly permanent backstop the issue may never have arisen.

    Now it will.

    Ironically Remain would possibly make it easier as that avoids the customs/tariffs issue, so I'd have that second on the list. The SNP are experts at manufacturing grievance, so whether we're in or out they'll always find a cause. When your only tool is a hammer, every problem is a nail.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

    It really isn't. Ask the DUP...

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.
    It trades off a common UK approach for the ability of part of the UK (England really) to diverge from the EU. In doing so it separates Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Whether rUK will actually diverge from the EU is not known at this point. It could run the gamut all the way from No Deal to Full Vassal State. The softer the Brexit agreed the less divergence there will be between NI and rUK. Arguably, the Johnson Deal allows more flexibility. Against that, the May Deal locks in UK access to EU markets. The Johnson Deal weakens the UK negotiating hand for the next and more important stage. If you are fed up with Brexit "want it done", the Johnson Deal leaves it much less done than the May Deal. It sets us up for a lot more debilitating argument.

    I'm clear the May Deal is better than the Johnson one because it limits the damage for the UK somewhat.
    It does sound that way. I wanted parliament to pass it last year, buy hey ho.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    viewcode said:

    Quick question.

    Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?

    It was $1.22 only a week ago, so pretty volatile. Although amazingly within a cent of where it was a year ago. The thinking is that a deal going through should strengthen the pound, but it’s already done quite a bit of that. (Annoyingly for me, as I get paid in USD and pay my mortgage in Sterling).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,265

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

    It really isn't. Ask the DUP...

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.
    It trades off a common UK approach for the ability of part of the UK (England really) to diverge from the EU. In doing so it separates Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Whether rUK will actually diverge from the EU is not known at this point. It could run the gamut all the way from No Deal to Full Vassal State. The softer the Brexit agreed the less divergence there will be between NI and rUK. Arguably, the Johnson Deal allows more flexibility. Against that, the May Deal locks in UK access to EU markets. The Johnson Deal weakens the UK negotiating hand for the next and more important stage. If you are fed up with Brexit "want it done", the Johnson Deal leaves it much less done than the May Deal. It sets us up for a lot more debilitating argument.

    I'm clear the May Deal is better than the Johnson one because it limits the damage for the UK somewhat.

    I am not sure I agree. Giving the Irish what they wanted is undoubtedly a major landmark in UK history and will do a huge amount for how we are perceived internationally. Given how damaging Brexit will be, that really matters IMO. We could have made ourselves a pariah state. We have chosen not to.

    May's Deal gives the Irish what they wanted and is preferable to them because they would like a soft Brexit with the rest of the UK. Johnson's Deal merely satisfies the Irish border red line. The main thing about Johnson's Deal is that it satisfies little Englander demands for divergence from the EU. In principle at least. Whether it will actually happens TBD.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Yes - Johnson's deal makes the case more difficult as there will be no way around a hard border with Scotland's biggest market if it wants to rejoin the EU.

    BoZo's deal explicitly says that one part of the UK can have different trade arrangement from another.

    Nippy can't stop grinning...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I dont think Saturday 19 October will have impressed anyone in the voting populace ultimately, it was a rather ridiculous display and if mos are canvassing tomorrow or getting the feedback I expect it to be a chastening experience for them. AG Cox's excoriation seems apposite tonight.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    RobD said:

    alex. said:

    Looks like the EU may have no choice but to grant an extension:



    Surely they knew that last week?
    What powers does the EU have to convene an earlier session? I can’t believe that if legislation was passed next week they wouldn’t be able to get an approval vote earlier.
    They talked about special sessions the last time. Hard to think they'd sit around doing nothing for weeks on end... who am I kidding, this is the EU parliament we are talking about.
    That honeymoon with Jean-Claude and the 'helpful' EU was so ephemeral.
    I enjoyed it. :D
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,340
    Seems to be a surfeit of crowd funded cases which have failed.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502
    nico67 said:

    Looks like the EU may have no choice but to grant an extension:

    I wonder whether they are able to change those dates . If this isn’t the case then I would expect the EP President to confirm this .

    If they can’t vote then the EU have no choice but to grant the extension , if that’s the case what do they do .

    Offer one technical one say for a month if the deal passes , and then another longer one if it doesn’t .
    The calendar here shows plenary sessions on 21-24 October, so I don't understand that:
    https://www.europarl.europa.eu/

    Yesterday I posted a report of comments by the parliament's president, saying he _hoped_ it would be possible to comply with the 31 October timetable.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    nichomar said:

    I can’t understand what the fuss is about all that has happened is that HMG have to reorder the process, pass the WAIB then seek the meaningful vote . It can all go through by 31/10 all he has to do is send the letter which if he asks for the extension only to be implemented if he fails to pas the package what’s the problem? Now if giving people time to study the agreement means it may reduce its chance of passing then fair enough. To present MPs with 583 pages os deal text on the morning of the vote is a little dubious. If the deal is so good and better than the one we currently have then it should pass with a majority of 450

    The deal is already available, and I think 95% unchanged from last time. So assuming MPs did their duty and read the deal the first time (yeah, I know), there's not a whole lot extra stuff to read/ingest.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,265
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Not true. Leavers trust Boris. A large part of the PB commentariat trusts Boris.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    edited October 2019
    Would be fun if we get to Wed and there's still no sound from the EU whether they'd accept or not...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    Scott_P said:

    Yes - Johnson's deal makes the case more difficult as there will be no way around a hard border with Scotland's biggest market if it wants to rejoin the EU.

    BoZo's deal explicitly says that one part of the UK with a land border with the EU can have different trade arrangement from another.

    Nippy can't stop grinning...
    You missed a bit......
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284

    I dont think Saturday 19 October will have impressed anyone in the voting populace ultimately, it was a rather ridiculous display and if mos are canvassing tomorrow or getting the feedback I expect it to be a chastening experience for them. AG Cox's excoriation seems apposite tonight.

    Yet most people don't think it best to leave the EU.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

    It really isn't. Ask the DUP...

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.
    It trades off a common UK approach for the ability of part of the UK (England really) to diverge from the EU. In doing so it separates Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Whether rUK will actually diverge from the EU is not known at this point. It could run the gamut all the way from No Deal to Full Vassal State. The softer the Brexit agreed the less divergence there will be between NI and rUK. Arguably, the Johnson Deal allows more flexibility. Against that, the May Deal locks in UK access to EU markets. The Johnson Deal weakens the UK negotiating hand for the next and more important stage. If you are fed up with Brexit "want it done", the Johnson Deal leaves it much less done than the May Deal. It sets us up for a lot more debilitating argument.

    I'm clear the May Deal is better than the Johnson one because it limits the damage for the UK somewhat.

    I am not sure I agree. Giving the Irish what they wanted is undoubtedly a major landmark in UK history and will do a huge amount for how we are perceived internationally. Given how damaging Brexit will be, that really matters IMO. We could have made ourselves a pariah state. We have chosen not to.

    May's Deal gives the Irish what they wanted and is preferable to them because they would like a soft Brexit with the rest of the UK. Johnson's Deal merely satisfies the Irish border red line. The main thing about Johnson's Deal is that it satisfies little Englander demands for divergence from the EU. In principle at least. Whether it will actually happens TBD.

    Yep, the May deal worked as well, that’s a fair point. I guess I’m seeing Johnson’s climbdown in the context of No Deal. It’s important, I think, that Brexit only hurts us as we chose it, nobody else. On divergence, if I were the ERG I’d be wondering about quite how easily Johnson dumped the DUP when he felt he no longer needed them. I’d also be thinking about that if I was one of his Labour backers, though!

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    nichomar said:

    I can’t understand what the fuss is about all that has happened is that HMG have to reorder the process, pass the WAIB then seek the meaningful vote . It can all go through by 31/10 all he has to do is send the letter which if he asks for the extension only to be implemented if he fails to pas the package what’s the problem? Now if giving people time to study the agreement means it may reduce its chance of passing then fair enough. To present MPs with 583 pages os deal text on the morning of the vote is a little dubious. If the deal is so good and better than the one we currently have then it should pass with a majority of 450

    If they pass legislation why do they even need to bother with a meaningful vote?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Scott_P said:
    God forbid a unionist shows up who supports it!
    RobD said:

    Would be fun if we get to Wed and there's still no sound from the EU whether they'd accept or not...
    That would be the most sensible approach - the EU should not commit to how long an extension they intend to offer until MPs show their hand about GE/Ref/Deal.
  • justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Baker and Grieve on Sky atm with Baker sounding reasonable and statesmanlike of the two of them talking about compromise . . . what is happening? Have we slipped into a parallel universe?

    Remainers completely lost the plot today.

    They didn't believe Boris would get a deal and so thought it would be Benn Vs No Deal.

    But Boris did get a deal and by using Benn to block a deal they may well have blown themselves up.
    Grieve clearly rattled by it all on Sky. His plans are in ruins and he knows it, and hes ended his parliamentary career for nothing.
    Grieve is a strange fellow. He has tied himself in knots trying to come up with some weird justification for the actions he takes. Yet he does not appear to be able to come out and say “yes I think the decision the people took was wrong and I want to do everything in the rule book to stop us leaving the EU” which surely must be his main motivation.

    I would have much more respect for him if he’d just be frank and honest.
    At least the Lib Dems are honest. Grieve is a shyster.
    The most obvious shyster is Johnson! A lower form of life indeed.
    How is Johnson a shyster? He has been remarkably consistent despite people consistently saying he doesn't mean what he says. He's achieved what he said he would.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FF43 said:

    Not true. Leavers trust Boris. A large part of the PB commentariat trusts Boris.

    Idiots
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    alex. said:

    nichomar said:

    I can’t understand what the fuss is about all that has happened is that HMG have to reorder the process, pass the WAIB then seek the meaningful vote . It can all go through by 31/10 all he has to do is send the letter which if he asks for the extension only to be implemented if he fails to pas the package what’s the problem? Now if giving people time to study the agreement means it may reduce its chance of passing then fair enough. To present MPs with 583 pages os deal text on the morning of the vote is a little dubious. If the deal is so good and better than the one we currently have then it should pass with a majority of 450

    If they pass legislation why do they even need to bother with a meaningful vote?
    I don’t know
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Well, Emmanuel, just veto the fucking extension and the deal will pass Parliament at record speed (and record hilarity)!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,651
    RobD said:

    Would be fun if we get to Wed and there's still no sound from the EU whether they'd accept or not...
    The Irish MEP on Newsnight earlier said the EU would wait as long as possible before making a formal decision.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    edited October 2019

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.

    I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.

    If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.

    As a Unionist, I disagree.
    Not only that but we'll be allowing a foreign entity, over which have zero influence, to exercise political and economic power over a sizeable chunk of our country. Surely that's the very definition of treachery.
    And that "sizeable chunk of our country" can withdraw from that arrangement should they so wish. Surely thats the very definition of democracy?
    An observation to treasure.
    Never refuted Scotland's right to leave the Union - the objection was and is to the SNP's fatuous and fraudulent prospectus.
    The right to choose is the principle, not arguing about versions of the choices available. Glad though that your new democracy-defining self is now on board with S30 order being given at the request of the elected Scottish government.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    EPG said:

    I dont think Saturday 19 October will have impressed anyone in the voting populace ultimately, it was a rather ridiculous display and if mos are canvassing tomorrow or getting the feedback I expect it to be a chastening experience for them. AG Cox's excoriation seems apposite tonight.

    Yet most people don't think it best to leave the EU.
    The only 2 nationwide votes have had majority backing for leave or parties pledging to leave
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    Scott_P said:
    But didn’t refuse the delay . The E.U. might have no choice but to extend anyway depending on what the EP say on Monday .
  • nico67 said:

    If the EU can’t move the plenary session then unless the government gets its MV5 and at the same time can avoid the Letwin Amendment on Monday an extension will have to be offered before the end of next week .

    If the EP can’t ratify before the 31st October then that’s it , the UK won’t be leaving by then.

    Why can't the EU move the plenary session? The Parliament is sitting next week, it can vote on the deal.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,651

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Baker and Grieve on Sky atm with Baker sounding reasonable and statesmanlike of the two of them talking about compromise . . . what is happening? Have we slipped into a parallel universe?

    Remainers completely lost the plot today.

    They didn't believe Boris would get a deal and so thought it would be Benn Vs No Deal.

    But Boris did get a deal and by using Benn to block a deal they may well have blown themselves up.
    Grieve clearly rattled by it all on Sky. His plans are in ruins and he knows it, and hes ended his parliamentary career for nothing.
    Grieve is a strange fellow. He has tied himself in knots trying to come up with some weird justification for the actions he takes. Yet he does not appear to be able to come out and say “yes I think the decision the people took was wrong and I want to do everything in the rule book to stop us leaving the EU” which surely must be his main motivation.

    I would have much more respect for him if he’d just be frank and honest.
    At least the Lib Dems are honest. Grieve is a shyster.
    The most obvious shyster is Johnson! A lower form of life indeed.
    How is Johnson a shyster? He has been remarkably consistent despite people consistently saying he doesn't mean what he says. He's achieved what he said he would.
    And Amber Rudd owes him a major apology after claiming that he wasn't seriously seeking a deal.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

    The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

    How can he make good on them if the wording of the text can't change?

    A government amendment to the withdrawal act would do the trick, wouldn’t it?

    The withdrawal act already enshrines all EU laws as UK laws.

    In the future a government might change the law, but that's always the case, no Parliament can bind its successor.

    Of course - but this government can bind itself.

    No it can't. This government can make commitments but it can't bind itself.

    I take legislation to be binding until it is superseded or revoked.

    And the government is passing legislation enshrining EU laws.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    blueblue said:

    Well, Emmanuel, just veto the fucking extension and the deal will pass Parliament at record speed (and record hilarity)!
    Take back control (please Emmanuel)!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    alex. said:

    Looks like the EU may have no choice but to grant an extension:



    Surely they knew that last week?
    What powers does the EU have to convene an earlier session? I can’t believe that if legislation was passed next week they wouldn’t be able to get an approval vote earlier.
    They talked about special sessions the last time. Hard to think they'd sit around doing nothing for weeks on end... who am I kidding, this is the EU parliament we are talking about.
    That honeymoon with Jean-Claude and the 'helpful' EU was so ephemeral.
    I enjoyed it. :D
    Who ****ed who?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But didn’t refuse the delay . The E.U. might have no choice but to extend anyway depending on what the EP say on Monday .
    I thought the decision was exclusively for the Council?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    alex. said:

    Looks like the EU may have no choice but to grant an extension:



    Surely they knew that last week?
    What powers does the EU have to convene an earlier session? I can’t believe that if legislation was passed next week they wouldn’t be able to get an approval vote earlier.
    They talked about special sessions the last time. Hard to think they'd sit around doing nothing for weeks on end... who am I kidding, this is the EU parliament we are talking about.
    That honeymoon with Jean-Claude and the 'helpful' EU was so ephemeral.
    I enjoyed it. :D
    Who ***ed who?
    A lady never tells. :)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,340
    edited October 2019
    After this afternoon's farce, how will the polls change?



    Apologies if others have posted this from Opinium.
  • Hopefully by 11pm Boris will write the "precious" extension request letter and add in it that he does not intend to hold further negotiations and therefore the EU granting an extension would serve no purpose. That way he complies with the Benn Act and tells all the Remoaners to feck off! Time for the Remoaners to stop pretending they believe in democracy and just bring a motion to "revoke Article50". Then if it is voted down we can watch as the Labour party descends inter civil war and the Liberal Party returns to irrelevancy! If it is passed then a great many MPs will need 24 hour protection because their personal safety will almost certainly be at risk in many parts of the country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.

    I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.

    If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.

    As a Unionist, I disagree.
    Not only that but we'll be allowing a foreign entity, over which have zero influence, to exercise political and economic power over a sizeable chunk of our country. Surely that's the very definition of treachery.
    And that "sizeable chunk of our country" can withdraw from that arrangement should they so wish. Surely thats the very definition of democracy?
    An observation to treasure.
    Never refuted Scotland's right to leave the Union - the objection was and is to the SNP's fatuous and fraudulent prospectus.
    The right to choose is the principle, not arguing about versions of the choices available. Glad though that your new democracy-defining self is now on board with S30 order being given at the request of the elected Scottish government.
    "Once in a generation" as set out in the SNP Government's White Paper.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    viewcode said:

    Quick question.

    Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?

    I expect it to be much the same but please do not take my advice. It is too volatile just now
    When I write "Chronicle of a bet foretold pt 3" (provisionally subtitled "The Carnage Continues") it will go in some depth about how using currency conversion to store wealth is A Really Bad Idea.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,265

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

    It really isn't. Ask the DUP...

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.
    It trades off a common UK approach for the ability of part of the UK (England really) to diverge from the EU. In doing so it separates Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Whether rUK will actually diverge from the EU is not known at this point. It could run the gamut all the way from No Deal to Full Vassal State. The softer the Brexit agreed the less divergence there will be between NI and rUK. Arguably, the Johnson Deal allows more flexibility. Against that, the May Deal locks in UK access to EU markets. The Johnson Deal weakens the UK negotiating hand for the next and more important stage. If you are fed up with Brexit "want it done", the Johnson Deal leaves it much less done than the May Deal. It sets us up for a lot more debilitating argument.

    I'm clear the May Deal is better than the Johnson one because it limits the damage for the UK somewhat.

    I am not sure I agree. Giving the Irish what they wanted is undoubtedly a major landmark in UK history and will do a huge amount for how we are perceived internationally. Given how damaging Brexit will be, that really matters IMO. We could have made ourselves a pariah state. We have chosen not to.

    May's Deal gives the Irish what they wanted and is preferable to them because they would like a soft Brexit with the rest of the UK. Johnson's Deal merely satisfies the Irish border red line. The main thing about Johnson's Deal is that it satisfies little Englander demands for divergence from the EU. In principle at least. Whether it will actually happens TBD.

    Yep, the May deal worked as well, that’s a fair point. I guess I’m seeing Johnson’s climbdown in the context of No Deal. It’s important, I think, that Brexit only hurts us as we chose it, nobody else. On divergence, if I were the ERG I’d be wondering about quite how easily Johnson dumped the DUP when he felt he no longer needed them. I’d also be thinking about that if I was one of his Labour backers, though!

    The key thing is that the ambiguity built into Johnson's Deal will need to be turned into hard treaty commitments. It isn't real flexibility, but merely prolongs the uncertainty until the Johnson's betrayals are complete.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But didn’t refuse the delay . The E.U. might have no choice but to extend anyway depending on what the EP say on Monday .
    I thought the decision was exclusively for the Council?
    It is but if the EP run out of time this week and can’t add another plenary session then they can’t ratify till November 14 th .

    So basically the EU council have to agree the extension as it simply can’t be ratified before the October 31 st deadline .
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,073
    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    I’m not sure that’s true of your last point.



    Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    Why do you feel it's a much worse deal?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But didn’t refuse the delay . The E.U. might have no choice but to extend anyway depending on what the EP say on Monday .
    I thought the decision was exclusively for the Council?
    I think he means what the EP says about the ratification timetable.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    Remainers keep saying this deal is much worse, Leavers keep saying it is better. Funny that.

    Can you give any reason why - from a Leaver's perspective - we should view this deal as worse let alone much worse?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    ...Hard to think they'd sit around doing nothing for weeks on end... who am I kidding, this is the EU parliament we are talking about.

    While you're in the irony store, can you pick up an Extra Large bucket of Irony, as you appear to have misplaced it. :):)


  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502

    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    I’m not sure that’s true of your last point.



    Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
    Sick to Death of the Whole Thing 98%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Can you give any reason why - from a Leaver's perspective - we should view this deal as worse let alone much worse?

    Ask the DUP
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    Wise words indeed.

    MPs refuse to trust serial liar Boris Johnson - whoda thunk it eh?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,265

    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    Remainers keep saying this deal is much worse, Leavers keep saying it is better. Funny that.

    Can you give any reason why - from a Leaver's perspective - we should view this deal as worse let alone much worse?
    Agreed. Remainers think Johnson's Deal is worse because it doesn't limit the damage. Leavers don't care about limiting Brexit damage obviously
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,651

    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    I’m not sure that’s true of your last point.



    Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
    But May's deal was at -30% so this is a much better reaction.
  • Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.

    I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.

    If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.

    As a Unionist, I disagree.
    Not only that but we'll be allowing a foreign entity, over which have zero influence, to exercise political and economic power over a sizeable chunk of our country. Surely that's the very definition of treachery.
    And that "sizeable chunk of our country" can withdraw from that arrangement should they so wish. Surely thats the very definition of democracy?
    An observation to treasure.
    Never refuted Scotland's right to leave the Union - the objection was and is to the SNP's fatuous and fraudulent prospectus.
    The right to choose is the principle, not arguing about versions of the choices available. Glad though that your new democracy-defining self is now on board with S30 order being given at the request of the elected Scottish government.
    "Once in a generation" as set out in the SNP Government's White Paper.
    Yup, my one abiding memory of indyref I was how seriously Unionists took the White Paper. Perhaps you should be attending to more recent shibboleths, like 'no border in the Irish Sea'.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    Real chaos is Parliament passing the deal, a short extension for the EP to do likewise and... the EP voting it down!

  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    I’m not sure that’s true of your last point.



    Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
    Sick to Death of the Whole Thing 98%
    The polls wrong.

    Do you think Boris deal is better than Mays and is good? 0%
    Just sick to death of the whole shit show this country has become and if something is passed in commons that is the end of it so does that have my support? 100%.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    I think things might fall apart pretty soon on the WAIB.

    Because the DUP can no longer be trusted to vote with the government. And those Labour Leavers although happy to vote for the deal might also be happy to support amendments for a softer Brexit .

    And this is when the ERG are likely to implode , people seem to have missed Steve Bakers comments .

    They said they would play nicely if the Bill wasn’t changed or had something added to it that they don’t like .

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,265

    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    I’m not sure that’s true of your last point.



    Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
    My take from the polling is that people really are fed up with Brexit and want to bring it to a resolution. But they are very mistrustful of the resolution proposed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.

    I think it heralds the break up of the Union.

    I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.

    If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.

    As a Unionist, I disagree.
    Not only that but we'll be allowing a foreign entity, over which have zero influence, to exercise political and economic power over a sizeable chunk of our country. Surely that's the very definition of treachery.
    And that "sizeable chunk of our country" can withdraw from that arrangement should they so wish. Surely thats the very definition of democracy?
    An observation to treasure.
    Never refuted Scotland's right to leave the Union - the objection was and is to the SNP's fatuous and fraudulent prospectus.
    The right to choose is the principle, not arguing about versions of the choices available. Glad though that your new democracy-defining self is now on board with S30 order being given at the request of the elected Scottish government.
    "Once in a generation" as set out in the SNP Government's White Paper.
    Yup, my one abiding memory of indyref I was how seriously Unionists took the White Paper.
    You're saying it shouldn't be taken seriously?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    edited October 2019
    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Quick question.

    Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?

    It was $1.22 only a week ago, so pretty volatile. Although amazingly within a cent of where it was a year ago. The thinking is that a deal going through should strengthen the pound, but it’s already done quite a bit of that. (Annoyingly for me, as I get paid in USD and pay my mortgage in Sterling).
    My concern is that suddenly No Deal is a very real prospect. I don't think it's really sunken in that it is October 19th, we are on an automatic countdown to October 31st, Johnson will not cooperate, EU will not rescue us, Parliament is populated by total [REDACTED], and nobody has noticed that Joshua has started going thru the command codes... :(

    I hope this effectively communicates my large level of worry.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    Remainers keep saying this deal is much worse, Leavers keep saying it is better. Funny that.

    Can you give any reason why - from a Leaver's perspective - we should view this deal as worse let alone much worse?
    Agreed. Remainers think Johnson's Deal is worse because it doesn't limit the damage. Leavers don't care about limiting Brexit damage obviously
    Remainers think Boris's Deal is worse simply because it happened at all. They had set him up for an epic fail in Brussels. Ooops.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    nico67 said:

    I think things might fall apart pretty soon on the WAIB.

    Because the DUP can no longer be trusted to vote with the government. And those Labour Leavers although happy to vote for the deal might also be happy to support amendments for a softer Brexit .

    And this is when the ERG are likely to implode , people seem to have missed Steve Bakers comments .

    They said they would play nicely if the Bill wasn’t changed or had something added to it that they don’t like .

    MPs who amend that bill are only interested in one thing, stopping Brexit.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,228
    nico67 said:

    I think things might fall apart pretty soon on the WAIB.

    Because the DUP can no longer be trusted to vote with the government. And those Labour Leavers although happy to vote for the deal might also be happy to support amendments for a softer Brexit .

    And this is when the ERG are likely to implode , people seem to have missed Steve Bakers comments .

    They said they would play nicely if the Bill wasn’t changed or had something added to it that they don’t like .

    The WIAB cannot amend the text of the deal. There might be “side” amendments attached to it but it cannot change the treaty provisions.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

    It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

    I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

    The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

    How can he make good on them if the wording of the text can't change?

    A government amendment to the withdrawal act would do the trick, wouldn’t it?

    The withdrawal act already enshrines all EU laws as UK laws.

    In the future a government might change the law, but that's always the case, no Parliament can bind its successor.

    Of course - but this government can bind itself.

    No it can't. This government can make commitments but it can't bind itself.

    I take legislation to be binding until it is superseded or revoked.

    And the government is passing legislation enshrining EU laws.
    Only existing EU laws for two years with the power to throw them out by executive order without parliamentary approval.they have also taken out the acceptance of new Eu regulations already agreed from the new WA and replaced them with a vague promise to maintain standards from the WA into the PD which isn’t legally binding. It’s no wonder that there is suspicion about the governments objectives are, anybody who say just get this over with regardless of the deal should really think again.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 1,271
    edited October 2019
    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Karma’s a bitch.

    That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.

    People are getting over-excited though.

    1. He sends the letter.
    2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately.
    3. Boris introduces WA bill next week.
    4. It passes by 31/10.
    5. Problem solved.
    6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.

    The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.

    I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.

    No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.

    Remainers keep saying this deal is much worse, Leavers keep saying it is better. Funny that.

    Can you give any reason why - from a Leaver's perspective - we should view this deal as worse let alone much worse?
    Agreed. Remainers think Johnson's Deal is worse because it doesn't limit the damage. Leavers don't care about limiting Brexit damage obviously
    If your desired end state is single market/customs union (SM I get - but CU is mad) then May’s deal is better because we end up there automatically (which is bad, if you don’t want that).

    If your desired end state is a looser FTA then Boris’ is better (we’d have to fight to regain SM etc, and therefore concede stuff, so will look worse to the other side).

    Neither is objectively better or worse than the other. They achieve very different objectives for different reasons.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    When will Sky be putting up the counter clock for the extension letter ?
This discussion has been closed.