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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sell BREX, Buy PC, GRN & LDs – My current Commons seats spread
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sell BREX, Buy PC, GRN & LDs – My current Commons seats spread bets
With December 2019 general election looking more likely I have just placed another Commons seats spread bet with SportingIndex.
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They are embroiled in internal conflict in their key target seats of Ynys Mon, Cardiff West and Llanelli.
Despite the view from leafy pb.com-shire, the PC/LibDem Remain alliance is likely to be unpopular in most of Wales, and is likely to alienate a goodish chunk of the PC voters.
PC will go backwards at this election.
If there is an early Dec election then it gives time to pass the deal before Christmas and we leave at 23:00 on 31/12/19.
We know that because you told us so many times in the past few weeks.
You're probably right.
My understanding is that the Tories still think they are ahead in Putney (although I don't think they have a confirmed candidate to replace Justine yet) .The swing to LD from Labour and Tory remainers is not enough to win the seat for the LDs but is enough to see off Labour. For the same reason I understand Battersea may be in play for the Tories though there are longer term demographic change factors in play there. I would guess Wimbledon would be similar to Putney though I have no specific info on that seat.
Sutton & Cheam is possible, but a difficult ask. I think coming from third in Putney, etc., will be tough for them.
As the weekend polls with 10%+ Tory leads show, Leavers are happy Boris did not request an extension and blame it on Remainer MPs instead
I dare you to try and argue the substance of a point without demeaning those you disagree with.
Not me, I'm done with you.
Time to put up or shut up for the "Remain Alliance" so let's see if we really do see LD/Green/Plaid standing back. I know it will be described as principled, but I reckon a lot of it will be about saving £500 deposits in hopeless seats.
Considering they have held the council for 35 years you would have thought they could have got a local candidate to stand..but no.
Plus there will be no dementia tax disaster under Boris but a populist tax cut and more money for NHS platform
After a decade of Tory government Labour could get their worst result since before WWII.
I wonder why Labour are terrified of going to the polls?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/27/peoples-vote-campaign-civil-war-struggle-strategy-splinter-group
In an effort to show they are the more populist side, Dawson's faction are calling Rudd's group "the Kensington splinter" and will put man of the people Michael Heseltine in charge.
The LibDems held Ceredigion in 2015, and they only won 8 seats. 8 << 100.
https://twitter.com/MRSarawak/status/1188709221178761221
Wonder whether Ceredigion is a seat where the LibDems would be worried about the students at Aberwystwth going home for Christmas.
I was very sure we would have one in November. Annoying. Just about scrambled back to a mildly red position, but loses covered by a reasonable overall bet on a 2019 GE.
There is a small (but real) chance that the LDs significantly outperform expectations, and therefore the seat spread has to be above the midpoint. Still, I'd have my midpoint for then in the mid 20s, and the spread perhaps closer to 30. At 40-45, they're a clear sell.
The BXP risk is that either (a) they take off, or (b) there's a BXP-Con pact. Both are unlikely. Still, the 3x your stake maximum win isn't very appealing. It's pennies in front of a bulldozer time.
PC looks likely to lose Ceridigion, so that doesn't like a great call either. And I suspec the best you'll manage with the Green bet is flat.
Labour 11,381
Plaid Cymru 10,205
That is why it is a Plaid Cymru target seat.
It is an interesting example of how important media access is.
Although I felt that he was given too much attention in the past I'm uneasy at how suddenly that's now been reversed.
What an egotistical bellend
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
That’s not the same as him always being wrong, mind.
Labour can lay as many amendments as they like. If Con + Lib-Dems + SNP don't vote for the amendments they're just pointless.
On the two big parties I'd tentatively have the Conservatives as a buy on the current prices; I think Boris will get his majority and possibly quite a big one, given Labour's current disarray, mixed messages, and voter-repellent leader, and the charmingly naive support of Boris by Leavers.
He threw away a guaranteed pole position by ignoring the yellow flags, and compounded that by his comments afterwards.
In the race, the attempt to force Hamilton onto the grass at the start wasn't smart either - it could have finished both their races, and he ought to have learned by now that his competitors no longer back out when he tries intimidatory driving.
The pass on Bottas was even more foolish. It was a classic piece of Verstappen driving, being both brilliant and an ill-considered risk; he could have passed easily using DRS on the following straight.
In summary, he threw away a certain pole and a probable win.
And has been outscored by Albon since he joined the team.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/28/polls-labour-win-general-election
Which it did.
But not much.
I also don’t like how little control you have. They take the markets down regularly and often when you most need them.
I think what might help the Remainers is to guarantee that No Deal would be an option on any 2nd referendum - this would make it easier for Brexiters to vote against Boris.
Remainers had a credible case for delay when we were staring down No Deal. But Boris did his part and got a deal that clearly can get the support of parliament as long as there's not game playing. If the only reason there is a further delay is game playing by the anti-Boris factions, then people will rightly blame them and not him.
In particular, although I think there will be a Remain alliance, it is hard to discern where the seats are that the Greens might win on the back of a Remain tide. Their Norwich target is one, and the Bristol seat another, if the LibDems let them fight it despite previously holding it. Otherwise, where? The seat the Greens want to fight is the IOW, but neither the Greens nor LibDems have much strength there and in a Remain v leave election I would expect the Tory leaver to win it. So that puts the Greens on a 1-3 range.
The counterargument would be if the Greens get to take on Labour in a chunk of Remain seats AND there’s a massive anti-Labour swing in the capital.
The LDs being 40-45 means the spread is 12% wide..so it has to move by that amount for you to be able to trade
What I was trying to say was that there's perhaps a 5% chance they get 100 seats plus. When you are working out the right price for the spread, you should do it something like this:
1% chance of 300 seats
5% chance of 100 seats
15% chance of 60 seats
...
5% chance of 5 seats
etc.
And then you add it all up. This means that the most likely (or even the fiftieth percentile) seat number could be very different from the right price for the spread.
At least, I think it is
My view on this is that the Labour vote will not implode as much as some seem to think it will.
p.s. I think I slightly misread your post. I thought you were saying it should be better value?
Labour 200-249 Ladbrokes 15/8
Labour 250-299 Ladbrokes 5/1
Those two look like good bets to me.
In Cardiff West, the candidate who did so well is currently suspended.
In Ynys Mon, there is an argument over a candidate who was parachuted in by the leadership. In Llanelli, there are suspensions, and a splinter nationalist candidate standing.
And so, as a public service, I am suggesting out that OGH should not be buying PC at 4.5 on the spreads.
I agree the correct answer is the mean, but is there any reason to think the spreads don't already reflect that?
Certainly better than handing all that power and discretion to a rogue PM.