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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How GE2019 is being treated on the front pages
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How GE2019 is being treated on the front pages
Here are some of today’s front pages and I don’t think there is anything as memorable as the Daily Mail at the same time in the process in 2017. There is much less Tory triumphalism. Its front page today is perhaps the most overtly political and highlights the twin worries for the Tories from the Lib Dems and the Brexit party which both threaten Johnson’s party in different ways.
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Meanwhile we've had the first outing for Labour's response to " Get Brexit done ". " Get Brexit sorted ".
While it errs towards being too clever by half " Get Brexit sorted " is a decent attempt at damage control. People can project what they want onto " sorted " and it sounds so similar to " done " it neutralises the Tory line.
On thing on the radar is the CWU hint they'll use their 97% strike vote to disrupt postal vote deliveries. A rare example of actual impact from a postal strike.
Conventional wisdom says that's a disaster for Labour as Corbyn will back the strikers to the hilt and heaps of undelivered Christmas post will feed every Tory attack line about what a Corbyn government will be like.
But I wonder if we are so far into a new frame that Labour will actively put a ' Strike week ' into their Grid. Frame strike action to an electorate not old enough to remember the 1970s as about austerity, privatision and the banking crash not union power. It would also change the subject from Brexit which suits Labour. One to watch.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/29/libdems-bid-200-seats-seeks-leading-party-remain-voters/
I think that Nigel is the big loser here, he climbed in the polls when May was PM because it was manifestly obvious she wasn't a Brexiter.
Boris was on the winning side in 2016, and has pushed hard enough to leave that he'll scoop back a lot of the soft BXP vote. Head bangers will bang heads for ever obvs.
Although absolutely any outcome is possible, it's going to be great to watch
Working title: Boris, Brexit and the Break-up of Britain.
Re. ASJOhnson below, I think it's far too soon to say Nigel Farage and BXP are the big losers. I sense Nige is sharpening his quill and preparing to launch a blistering attack on the Tories. Two things have pushed this to the fore. The first is that Farage is genuinely unimpressed by the Boris deal. The second is yesterday's readmittance to the party of the europhiles (as Farage tweeted it). This more than anything is going to incense the BXP - and they will use it as ammunition. They will point out that it's very likely that the europhiles will, once again, after the election hold the Commons to ransom.
So the BXP will go for No Deal Brexit and the moment October 31st passes and we're constantly fed the reminders of Johnson's ludicrous promises and those of his fanatical supporters ... the Brexit Party will rise and rise and rise.
I suspect they will poll over 15% I think the result may be close to 20% in the final vote.
Admittedly, Corbyn in Downing Street would be the equivalent of cleaning up an earthquake zone by nuking it.
Nobody will work with the Conservatives, and a badly weakened Labour will be hit with unacceptable and/or contradictory demands (I'm especially looking forward to the part where the SNP demands Indyref2 and the Lib Dems veto that idea, and block Corbyn as Prime Minister for good measure.) About the only thing the Remain Alliance will be able to agree on will be the necessity to revoke A50 in panic when we get to late January and the EU27 refuse yet another extension.
Where this leaves us come the March 2020 General Election, who can say?
If you believe that BXP is now mainly a repository for Labour / Brexit voters that won’t ever countenance voting Tory, then I reckon your best play is to put some distance between your own party and Boris, so as not to scare them back into Corbyn’s arms.
Farage must surely know that this “let’s have an alliance for a REAL Brexit” is a nonsense that will never happen now Boris is so publicly wedded to his deal. And if thinking rationally he must also realise that if he prevents Boris getting a majority, it’s highly unlikely it will be because a block of BXP MPs hold the balance of power, and more likely because his votes increased the seat count of the Lib Dem’s and Labour.
So either he genuinely thinks this deal isn’t Brexit (which would be bizarre but he is an odd fish), he doesn’t care about Brexit and only his own career (possible but also bizarre as killing Brexit would be self defeating, unless he really fancies himself to win a second election later in the year). Or we’re seeing a last petulant outburst against Cummings before he pulls back the attack dogs in key Con marginals, while keeping up the anti Boris pretence in some key LAB seats.
BXP won’t get to double figures % in vote share. Most will see their job was done at the Euros in bringing May‘s time to an end.
Not going to happen though. Far, far too many ultra-safe seats and robot voters. IMHO the current polls are substantially understating their support. On balance, I still think it likely that Labour will go backwards in this election, but I doubt it'll be even as bad as Foot in 1983 and probably a little bit better: it'll weaken them but there will be no knockout blow, sad to say.
I do rather hope that we see a repeat of these DM covers, except BoZo getting the push.
https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1189313610809561090?s=19
Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....
I am a remainer, but we have to leave, we just have to get out to follow the result of the referendum, and when these loons leading all the parties have left office Parliament, we can work our way back in with saner hands.
You violate private property rights and straight away it's over. No-one will invest if they think it possible some or all of their wealth will be expropriated on a whim by the Treasury. The currency will start to collapse. Before long, people will be taking their money out of the banks and hoarding it in mattresses, or converting it into gold whilst the pound is still worth enough to make that possible.
The absolute priority in this mess is to keep Labour in Opposition or, failing that, at least to weaken its Parliamentary caucus as much as possible, so that its worst impulses can be restrained by other parties. At this election, every Labour seat lost - whether to the Tories, the Brexit Party, the Lib Dems or the SNP - is to be celebrated. The rest is noise.
Hoping the Lib Dems become one of the biggest two parties. Not an especial fan, but I like their policy of not being socialist delinquents.
There will be Labour losses, and the Conservatives *might* be able to pick up enough of these to get them over the winning line - but I wouldn't exactly bet the farm on the prospect. Still think another Hung Parliament is more likely.
No way of knowing right now, but almost certainly gaming of polling panels by all sides .
In the South, the fight between Tory and LD
In the North, the battle between Tory and Labour.
In Scotland, the war for SNP supremacy
In Northern Ireland, the DUP-Alliance-SF tussle.
Perhaps the GE will be “won” in Wales, which looks like a Tory - Labour contest.
Per usual, the media will only report on the Southern front - so door to door anecdata will be highly useful.
Remember all the vox pops at the start of the campaign in places like Wakefield where Labour voters were telling the Beeb they loved Mrs May and they’d be changing their vote? Boris needs them now.
Whether he succeeds or not will pretty much decide his chances of an overall majority. I think it’s possible, but fraught with risk as May found to her detriment. A campaign misstep and that long-predicted realignment is off again.
Where are the cleverer hands coming from?
I think *everyone* will underperform - which means a NOM.
One very interesting bet is the post-election government with Ladbrokes where LD-Lab-SNP coalition is 16/1 (or 18/1 with a boost).
I’ve had a taste. LD/SNP have already cooperated to bring about this election and it’s not difficult to see all three parties come together (Corbyn would probably need to resign first) to block the Tories and call a 2nd referendum if Boris falls short.
Farage hasn't gone away and his "clean break Brexit" resonates in a way that the Johnson Surrender Deal doesn't. Expect to hear agonising detail about how a vote Johnson is a vote for further agonising years of aggro over Brexit, where instead of "get Brexit done" people realise this is just the start. Whilst I don't expect the BXP to win many seats (tip Hartlepool) they will be a major disruption to HYUFDs fantasy of a Boris landslide
On the other side there will be a big LibDem breakthrough and a big SNP restoration - how big depends on the campaign. Never mind the simple clear and positive campaigns that both parties will fight, I can't wait for the hate fest shitshow that is the Labour campaign. Jezbollah will continue to parade himself like Romulus Augustus Caesar. MPs will continue to fight their battle against Momentum and Divide, Richard Burgon (and his Incredible Universe) will openly contradict Starmer over Brexit whilst Pidcockkk will be sent out to insist this isn't a Brexit election
There are few three way marginals. In most seats and regions it is quite clear who to vote for to bring down the Tories.
Will it be 'all over by Christmas'?
In a yellow-red marginal, I'd vote Lib Dem.
[If it were yellow-blue, I might be looking at the candidates more than the parties].
Especially since he couldn’t see why that was offensive.
Revolting.
The nightmare scenario for the Conservatives is that the opposition ends up being geographically organised; SNP boss Scotland, Labour do well in Northern Leaverstan, Lib Dems do well in Southern Remainia.
For balance, the Conservative dream is that the clumping doesn't happen, so they can stride through the middle everywhere.
A lot turns on which of these better matches reality.
In any case, how big a majority would BJ need to be reasonably rebellion-proof for the next stage of his plans?
The Cambridge poll is excellent news for Leavers. Remainers are devoting energy & money to fighting each other.
Even if the University seats change, it will simply be replacing a Red Uber-Remainer with a Yellow Uber-Remainer.
Notice how the LibDems are only keen on a "Remain Alliance" when it suits their own narrow, sectional interests.
It seems unnacceptable to frame the GE as a mandate for Brexit, but only if Brexit wins, otherwise they want yet another go.
Try bigging up Tory Swinsons policies instead of the hate fest
Are they?
Oh sorry, is ‘Bunter’ not a reference to Corbyn?
As an aside, all season long he and Ricciardo have been within six points of one another. Given how good Ricciardo is, that's not a bad record.
There's a lot of certainty around on here at the moment based on next-to-nothing.
In such times it's good to take a step back and look at what we know. You're absolutely spot on about the polls.
This is a huge gamble by Johnson. I am far from convinced by the Tory hopefuls on here that it's going to succeed. But I'm watching and waiting. The first polls with samples post-October 31st will be interesting. Give it a couple of weeks and let's see the shake-down on this. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the two main parties within 6% of each other.
A lot may depend on the tv debates. Will Johnson duck them? He will try and avoid scrutiny at every opportunity but six weeks is a long time and eventually the media will turn on him if he keeps doing it.
I missed it.
The LibDem "Remainer Alliance" was only offered to Green & PC, as far I am aware.
That raises another issue. Do we know what the party finances are like right now? There was a rumour Labour were struggling financially a while back.
This is a betting site mate. If you want to push partisan attack lines try Labour List.
This might look fanciful given the opinion polls now, but there are a swathe of Tory Home Counties seats which voted for Remain and might have qualms about the deficit-exploding populism of the Johnson Ministry.
The BBC headline is Boris saying this will be tough. I am not detecting the frankly demented arrogance and hubris of May in 2017. Boris will actually campaign and he is rather good at it. Of course many Tory shibboleths will be discarded, not least of which is any real grip on public spending. Javid won't get his budget after all. Probably just as well if his financial statement was anything to go by. If Boris gets a clear majority I frankly wonder if he will keep his post.
Or something.
Best ignored.
They want to ensure that we cannot rejoin, and have no problem being Trump's poodle.