I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.
So, on Brexit, for a Brexit election, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself. But people like me won’t be voting Tory anyway. It would bring me out in a rash. With those that are medically capable of the act my sense is that Johnson will be a net asset. Just because I’m immune does not mean that I fail to recognize his star power. He appeals in particular to people who are not that interested in politics. There are a lot of such people in Britain. In a GE campaign this is gold dust and I expect him to exploit it to the max.
Conclusion –
Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.
I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.
I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent months, but I'm now not so sure. Everything is so uncertain, and I think the Cummings strategy of ditching southern seats in exchange for possible wins in Warrington and so on, is a leap of faith. The Tories will lose seats in Scotland, which they may make up in Wales, but again - feels like a leap of faith to me.
If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.
I predict a rerun in March.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
As in ‘Isn’t T Byronic?’ (Sorry, not been around much the last few months, that may have been done to death already)
Tory response to labour NHS attacks.........Wales......
Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......
I live in Wales and condemn Welsh labour's running of our NHS and the failing education system. I waited 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op, our hospital is in special measures and we cannot even get our flu jabs, even though we are priority patients.
And don't get me started on education
Labour need throwing out of Wales
Blame 25% cuts to Welsh Budgets
Labour in Wales have the money, they just waste it and do not know how to manage it
Labour in charge anywhere think the answer is check lists and spraying money up the wall.
Tory response to labour NHS attacks.........Wales......
Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......
I live in Wales and condemn Welsh labour's running of our NHS and the failing education system. I waited 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op, our hospital is in special measures and we cannot even get our flu jabs, even though we are priority patients.
And don't get me started on education
Labour need throwing out of Wales
I also live in Wales and things have certainly deteriorated over the last 9 years of Tory austerity. Having said that, my overall experiences of the NHS have been positive, would be a lot worse under a Tory Assembly. My grandson started school a year ago. He is coming on leaps and bounds and will be fluent in 2 languages before long. This will stand him in good stead for his future.
In what way are southern seats being ditched other than by the Tories saying "We want to leave with a Deal"? Or to put it another way, how could those seats be saved in the current political environment?
By ratifying the deal instead of cutting and running with an election?
You know and I know that the Deal would have been amended with a CU that would have lost ERG support. Then we'd have had either an impasse, or ERG + BXP crying loud betrayal, and probably no election either, leading to Boris' authority rapidly draining away.
No, the election is a gamble for sure, but once Letwin torpedoed the Programme Motion, the Deal could not be passed in a form the Tory Party could accept.
Tory response to labour NHS attacks.........Wales......
Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......
I live in Wales and condemn Welsh labour's running of our NHS and the failing education system. I waited 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op, our hospital is in special measures and we cannot even get our flu jabs, even though we are priority patients.
And don't get me started on education
Labour need throwing out of Wales
I also live in Wales and things have certainly deteriorated over the last 9 years of Tory austerity. Having said that, my overall experiences of the NHS have been positive, would be a lot worse under a Tory Assembly. My grandson started school a year ago. He is coming on leaps and bounds and will be fluent in 2 languages before long. This will stand him in good stead for his future.
Unfortunately that is not the experience of our family
The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.
It is no longer conserving much frankly.
'tis why I refer to it as the CINO Party. There are many of us who used to be activists and voters who liked having a party that believed in governments that are essentially conservative, not revolutionary, thereby reducing unnecessary upheaval and allowing people to get on with their lives.
Except of course they didn't allow people to get on with their lives. They have introduced ever more rules, red tape and idiotic legislation which has made our lives infinitely more annoying and cumbersome.
The last Tory leader was a xenophobic, authoritarian nightmare who in her time as Home Secretary had made numerous terrible decisions which had caused real pain and hardship for many innocent people. We have had an ever increasingly complex tax system presided over by successive Chancellors who have done nothing to simplify it and have seen almost all of our important services - police, nurses, doctors and the fire service alienated by bad decisions and yet more red tape.
The Conservatives have not allowed people to "get on with their lives" for decades. They are little different from the Blairite Labour party or the Lib Dems which is why we need this revolution.
Though I actually doubt it will come unfortunately
I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent months, but I'm now not so sure. Everything is so uncertain, and I think the Cummings strategy of ditching southern seats in exchange for possible wins in Warrington and so on, is a leap of faith. The Tories will lose seats in Scotland, which they may make up in Wales, but again - feels like a leap of faith to me.
If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.
I predict a rerun in March.
I can see a hung parliament if Remainer tactical voting is widespread and well targeted - and if we get a Labour campaign that moves the dial it might even be Tories into opposition.
I'd be over the moon with that. And having bought Con seats so would my wallet because it would have a great weight removed from it.
The choice at this election couldn’t be clearer. Our NHS is up for grabs by US corporations in a Trump trade deal. Isn’t the truth that this Conservative government is preparing to sell out our NHS, and our health service is in more danger than ever before? - @Jeremycorbyn #PMQs
God not another "24 hours to save the NHS" lie. I suppose he really thinks the voters are idiots.
And why does he call it "our" NHS? He never refers to "our" Army or "our" police that I've ever heard.
What an embarrassment that man is. No wonder he is polling disastrously badly.
According to Hansard, in his entire parliamentary career Corbyn has used the phrase "our police" five times.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority, and if no agreement is reached between the other parties and therefore no majority can be formed anywhere, what then?
I`m guessing a quick repeat of the GE? Who governs in the meantime?
The Tory benches are looking very glum. So are Labour, but you'd expect that.
Then they'd better buck themselves up pretty damned fast. Boris has turned their poll ratings around and put them in a winnable position, but they need to get off their arses and campaign like fury if they don't want stupid socialism to be the next phase of British political history.
This is the big one - they need to fight it as such.
If socialism is the next phase of British political history it will be the fault of Brexiteers and their gullible followers who have trashed the Tory reputation for sensible politics and economics. Brexit and its swiveleyed adherents is the reason Corbyn has any chance of power.
+1.
Perhaps many Conservatives have simply rediscovered the truth that, as Disraeli put it, one must be “a Conservative to preserve all that is good in our constitution, a Radical to remove all that is bad”. Many have simply concluded that the EU constitutional arrangement was bad, and required radical action to remove it.
100 years from now we’ll look on this as the same sort of Tory split as repealing the corn laws or opposing tariff reform. The side that wins out tends to then redefine conservatism and that would seem to be the brexiteers. I just hope the more liberally minded of that ilk end up in charge - Boris is a good start there.
I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.
So, on Brexit, for a Brexit election, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself.
Conclusion –
Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.
I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.
I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent months, but I'm now not so sure. Everything is so uncertain, and I think the Cummings strategy of ditching southern seats in exchange for possible wins in Warrington and so on, is a leap of faith. The Tories will lose seats in Scotland, which they may make up in Wales, but again - feels like a leap of faith to me.
If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.
I predict a rerun in March.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
What do you see as driving the gains from Labour - straight red -> blue switching, BXP hurting red more than blue, or Labour voters disillusioned by Corbyn going DNV/LD? I’m struggling to see 50 seats worth of any of those unless Boris can genuinely become liked enough for the first option to work.
The choice at this election couldn’t be clearer. Our NHS is up for grabs by US corporations in a Trump trade deal. Isn’t the truth that this Conservative government is preparing to sell out our NHS, and our health service is in more danger than ever before? - @Jeremycorbyn #PMQs
er ...........WALES.........
er...... BLANCMANGE.......
Does this game have rules or is it like Mornington Crescent?
I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.
So, on Brexit, for a Brexit election, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself.
Conclusion –
Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.
I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.
I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent feels like a leap of faith to me.
If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.
I predict a rerun in March.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
What do you see as driving the gains from Labour - straight red -> blue switching, BXP hurting red more than blue, or Labour voters disillusioned by Corbyn going DNV/LD? I’m struggling to see 50 seats worth of any of those unless Boris can genuinely become liked enough for the first option to work.
On the current BBC poll average the Tories gain about 50 Labour seats.
The Tories are holding most of their 2017 share, Labour have lost almost half their 2017 vote, mainly to the LDs
If Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority, and if no agreement is reached between the other parties and therefore no majority can be formed anywhere, what then?
I`m guessing a quick repeat of the GE? Who governs in the meantime?
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
I remember someone the other day saying SeanT was tweeting in southern US, then byronic came on here yesterday proclaiming to be in the same location. To be honest i could not care less if it is seant or not. Why does he not post under his original moniker? Did he get banned or was he embarrassed about Brexit? Cannot imagine he is the sort to be embarrased about anything!
I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.
So, on Brexit, for a Brexit election, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself.
Conclusion –
Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.
I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.
I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent feels like a leap of faith to me.
If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.
I predict a rerun in March.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
What do you see as driving the gains from Labour - straight red -> blue switching, BXP hurting red more than blue, or Labour voters disillusioned by Corbyn going DNV/LD? I’m struggling to see 50 seats worth of any of those unless Boris can genuinely become liked enough for the first option to work.
On the current BBC poll average the Tories gain about 50 Labour seats.
The Tories are holding most of their 2017 share, Labour have lost almost half their 2017 vote, mainly to the LDs
Of those 50 Labour seats, how many have ever returned a Tory candidate?
Notably a third of Republicans say there is literally almost nothing Trump could do that would reduce their support for him (as do over half of Fox news devotees).
I suppose the good thing for Boris is few will have watched PMQs and that will be the last one. Subjects like Grenfell always easy for Jezza and tough for Boris.
I suppose the good thing for Boris is few will have watched PMQs and that will be the last one. Subjects like Grenfell always easy for Jezza and tough for Boris.
Given the best PM and leader net favourability ratings are more accurate than straight party voting intention figures historically, yet more evidence if Labour had a more centrist and charismatic leader than Corbyn they could even have won this general election given neither Boris nor Swinson are hugely popular beyond their base but both are still more popular than Corbyn
I predict that gap will close significantly over the next 45 days.
Do you not agree?
I predict your total absence from here in the second half of December.
if the Tories can put forward more Andrea Jenkyns types in the North they will do very well, what they dont need is Tory wets. Morley and Outwood was an impressive win in 15' and an impressive hold in 17'. Plenty of these Northern constituencies are up for grabs.
I suppose the good thing for Boris is few will have watched PMQs and that will be the last one. Subjects like Grenfell always easy for Jezza and tough for Boris.
Crucial Question: Is the number of people who'll switch their vote from Boris to Jezza based on these PMQs larger or smaller than the number of times BJO will write "Tory Swinson" this campaign?
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
Revealed as a fiction writer with markedly little ability to write in character...
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Given most Tory voters are Leavers, even in Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney, the Tory strategy to push for Brexit is the correct one, if they do not they get wiped out by the Brexit Party as the European elections showed.
The fact Remainers are moving LD means some Tory Remain seats are vulnerable to the LDs but the Tories have more Labour Leave marginal seats to compensate
The Tories will need to make up losses to both the Lib Dems and SNP just to stand still. It's a tough ask.
Genuine question to PB at large. How many seats do you think the Conservatives must get to have a hope of forming a government?
For me, I reckon about 310 or more. Less than that, and I think they are screwed. I don't think they will have any natural allies in the upcoming Parliament, not even the DUP. *IF* the Brexit party win any (doubt it - might get one) then that could help, but otherwise, I think less than 310 and they're screwed and a rainbow coalition will be able to put forward a reasonable shot at a minority/coalition arrangement. It probably won't last past stopping Brexit, but once that is done it's probably game over for Brexit.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Boris refers to our NHS as well. So did Theresa May. So did the last Conservative manifesto, and the one before that. Probably most politicians do.
It is creepy and pathetic IMO.
It's an entirely normal way of speaking - "our armed forces", "our friends across the Channel", "our national debt", "our exports to India".
Possibly, but in the case of the NHS it is really politico speak for "I speak for them", hence why I think it creepy and cringeworthy. Politicians didn't say "Our British Rail", or "Our British Leyland" in the past, even though through the insanity of nationalisation that was technically true.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
I remember someone the other day saying SeanT was tweeting in southern US, then byronic came on here yesterday proclaiming to be in the same location. To be honest i could not care less if it is seant or not. Why does he not post under his original moniker? Did he get banned or was he embarrassed about Brexit? Cannot imagine he is the sort to be embarrased about anything!
Such a thing might be about establishing plausible deniability for old and inconvenient embarrassments ?
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
SeanT is like ten thousands spoons when all you need is a knife.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
That's not unrealistic, as things look at the moment.
My take on the various parties' positions:
Con: Although not totally united, they are united enough. Their Brexit position of leaving with the negotiated deal is coherent and one which both Leavers and moderate Remainers can agree on, at least for the purposes of this election. (There will be big problems next June with the requirement to extend the transition, but that can be swept under the carpet for now). Boris is clearly a bounder and a charlatan, but the party and most of its target voters seem content for the moment to think 'at least he's our bounder and charlatan'. The timing is good for the party, Boris still gets the benefit of the doubt. The party leadership also seems to be fighting a much more focused and ruthless campaign than Theresa May ever could. So, overall, I think they are in quite good shape. The main concerns are that a party which doesn't have room for Phil Hammond, David Gauke and Amber Rudd is not one which traditional one-nation Conservatives will be happy with, and the spectre of the party support of a No Deal crash-out hasn't completely gone away.
Lab: Oh dear. Fighting like ferrets in a sack, anti-Semitism, Corbyn, an utter shambles on Brexit, A dire position by any standards, but the brand is strong and Boris is polarising, which will help them. They'll be looking to change the subject and focus on spaying money we don't have around, and Momentum will be trying hard. However, I don't think the youngsters will be caught up in Corbyn hype this time round, the LibDems will pick up a lot of the youth/Remain vote, and Boris won't make the mistake Theresa May made of allowing the Labour manifesto to be unchallenged.
LD; Good strategic position as the sane alternative to the extremes of the two big parties and with a clear position on Brexit ("no thanks"), but it's a difficult starting position and they'll be stretched (although they are raising lots of dosh). Jo Swinson is lightweight but will do.
SNP: Will clean up, a perfect position for them.
Greens: Should do OK but remain marginal.
BXP: Squeezed out for now, but will recover when Boris starts on the FTA negotiations, which will require sticking to EU regulations.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Given most Tory voters are Leavers, even in Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney, the Tory strategy to push for Brexit is the correct one, if they do not they get wiped out by the Brexit Party as the European elections showed.
The fact Remainers are moving LD means some Tory Remain seats are vulnerable to the LDs but the Tories have more Labour Leave marginal seats to compensate
The Tories will need to make up losses to both the Lib Dems and SNP just to stand still. It's a tough ask.
Genuine question to PB at large. How many seats do you think the Conservatives must get to have a hope of forming a government?
For me, I reckon about 310 or more. Less than that, and I think they are screwed. I don't think they will have any natural allies in the upcoming Parliament, not even the DUP. *IF* the Brexit party win any (doubt it - might get one) then that could help, but otherwise, I think less than 310 and they're screwed and a rainbow coalition will be able to put forward a reasonable shot at a minority/coalition arrangement. It probably won't last past stopping Brexit, but once that is done it's probably game over for Brexit.
In a sense, so what? I'd hate losing to the stupid communist, but in that scenario Corbyn would be utterly neutered and the Tories would be only a tiny step away from regaining power at a subsequent election. As defeats go, that would be a fairly sweet one.
if the Tories can put forward more Andrea Jenkyns types in the North they will do very well, what they dont need is Tory wets. Morley and Outwood was an impressive win in 15' and an impressive hold in 17'. Plenty of these Northern constituencies are up for grabs.
I will laugh if she loses. It is possible as she benefited from first time incumbency last time. Incumbency could work against her this time as those opposed to her might be more motivated to oust her!
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent months, but I'm now not so sure. Everything is so uncertain, and I think the Cummings strategy of ditching southern seats in exchange for possible wins in Warrington and so on, is a leap of faith. The Tories will lose seats in Scotland, which they may make up in Wales, but again - feels like a leap of faith to me. If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government. I predict a rerun in March.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
You are a pessimist, HY. The Conservatives will not do that well.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
I remember someone the other day saying SeanT was tweeting in southern US, then byronic came on here yesterday proclaiming to be in the same location. To be honest i could not care less if it is seant or not. Why does he not post under his original moniker? Did he get banned or was he embarrassed about Brexit? Cannot imagine he is the sort to be embarrased about anything!
Such a thing might be about establishing plausible deniability for old and inconvenient embarrassments ?
Or simply a failed novelistic exercise.
Reminds me of that advertising slogan "embarrassed by your phone?" Maybe the LibDems could have "Embarrassed by Brexit?". It would resonate with SeanT
There is a certain irony that people who pretend to be patriots have simultaneously turned us into an international laughing stock and done the bidding of Putin. Well done, Brexiteers, good work! Embarrassed by Brexit? You should be!
if the Tories can put forward more Andrea Jenkyns types in the North they will do very well, what they dont need is Tory wets. Morley and Outwood was an impressive win in 15' and an impressive hold in 17'. Plenty of these Northern constituencies are up for grabs.
I will laugh if she loses. It is possible as she benefited from first time incumbency last time. Incumbency could work against her this time as those opposed to her might be more motivated to oust her!
She's also demonstrated her room-temperature IQ, which won't help.
I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent months, but I'm now not so sure. Everything is so uncertain, and I think the Cummings strategy of ditching southern seats in exchange for possible wins in Warrington and so on, is a leap of faith. The Tories will lose seats in Scotland, which they may make up in Wales, but again - feels like a leap of faith to me. If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government. I predict a rerun in March.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
You are a pessimist, HY. The Conservatives will not do that well.
They could range from largest party to small majority to comfortable one
It would be unwise to be over confident in any outcome
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
That's not unrealistic, as things look at the moment.
My take on the various parties' positions:
Con: Although not totally united, they are united enough. Their Brexit position of leaving with the negotiated deal is coherent and one which both Leavers and moderate Remainers can agree on, at least for the purposes of this election. (There will be big problems next June with the requirement to extend the transition, but that can be swept under the carpet for now). Boris is clearly a bounder and a charlatan, but the party and most of its target voters seem content for the moment to think 'at least he's our bounder and charlatan'. The timing is good for the party, Boris still gets the benefit of the doubt. The party leadership also seems to be fighting a much more focused and ruthless campaign than Theresa May ever could. So, overall, I think they are in quite good shape. The main concerns are that a party which doesn't have room for Phil Hammond, David Gauke and Amber Rudd is not one which traditional one-nation Conservatives will be happy with, and the spectre of the party support of a No Deal crash-out hasn't completely gone away.
Lab: Oh dear. Fighting like ferrets in a sack, anti-Semitism, Corbyn, an utter shambles on Brexit, A dire position by any standards, but the brand is strong and Boris is polarising, which will help them. They'll be looking to change the subject and focus on spaying money we don't have around, and Momentum will be trying hard. However, I don't think the youngsters will be caught up in Corbyn hype this time round, the LibDems will pick up a lot of the youth/Remain vote, and Boris won't make the mistake Theresa May made of allowing the Labour manifesto to be unchallenged.
LD; Good strategic position as the sane alternative to the extremes of the two big parties and with a clear position on Brexit ("no thanks"), but it's a difficult starting position and they'll be stretched (although they are raising lots of dosh). Jo Swinson is lightweight but will do.
SNP: Will clean up, a perfect position for them.
Greens: Should do OK but remain marginal.
BXP: Squeezed out for now, but will recover when Boris starts on the FTA negotiations, which will require sticking to EU regulations.
Excellent analysis. Labour is the party that stands to have its bones picked from left and right (or Leave and Remain) if they're not very careful...
It’s very possible we get both a second EU referendum and a second independence referendum next year.
Yup. Kill me now.
If you have a 2nd EU ref you're almost certainly get a 3rd one. I think the Tories need to hammer home that a vote for Labour is a vote for years more uncertainty. It's a powerful message when you see the polling on 'Brexit fatigue'.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
That's not unrealistic, as things look at the moment.
My take on the various parties' positions:
Con: Although not totally united, they are united enough. Their Brexit position of leaving with the negotiated deal is coherent and one which both Leavers and moderate Remainers can agree on, at least for the purposes of this election. (There will be big problems next June with the requirement to extend the transition, but that can be swept under the carpet for now). Boris is clearly a bounder and a charlatan, but the party and most of its target voters seem content for the moment to think 'at least he's our bounder and charlatan'. The timing is good for the party, Boris still gets the benefit of the doubt. The party leadership also seems to be fighting a much more focused and ruthless campaign than Theresa May ever could. So, overall, I think they are in quite good shape. The main concerns are that a party which doesn't have room for Phil Hammond, David Gauke and Amber Rudd is not one which traditional one-nation Conservatives will be happy with, and the spectre of the party support of a No Deal crash-out hasn't completely gone away.
Lab: Oh dear. Fighting like ferrets in a sack, anti-Semitism, Corbyn, an utter shambles on Brexit, A dire position by any standards, but the brand is strong and Boris is polarising, which will help them. They'll be looking to change the subject and focus on spaying money we don't have around, and Momentum will be trying hard. However, I don't think the youngsters will be caught up in Corbyn hype this time round, the LibDems will pick up a lot of the youth/Remain vote, and Boris won't make the mistake Theresa May made of allowing the Labour manifesto to be unchallenged.
LD; Good strategic position as the sane alternative to the extremes of the two big parties and with a clear position on Brexit ("no thanks"), but it's a difficult starting position and they'll be stretched (although they are raising lots of dosh). Jo Swinson is lightweight but will do.
SNP: Will clean up, a perfect position for them.
Greens: Should do OK but remain marginal.
A not unreasonable assessment at the off, but there is room for things to change significantly. And there’s considerable uncertainty about local and regional effects of Brexit polarisation.
The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.
It is no longer conserving much frankly.
The ones replacing them are pretty fine candidates, from what I'm seeing.
We've got a great one in Totnes.
Sarah Wollaston may prove to be more popular than you think, she was, after all, selected by all the constituencies voters in an open primary.
Yes, but as Chair of the Health Committee, she didn't have enough sway to keep Dartmouth Hospital open.
And then there's Brixham, the biggest port for landing fish in England and Wales - and only marginally smaller than Totnes town itself. No fans of Wollaston they.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Given most Tory voters are Leavers, even in Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney, the Tory strategy to push for Brexit is the correct one, if they do not they get wiped out by the Brexit Party as the European elections showed.
The fact Remainers are moving LD means some Tory Remain seats are vulnerable to the LDs but the Tories have more Labour Leave marginal seats to compensate
The Tories will need to make up losses to both the Lib Dems and SNP just to stand still. It's a tough ask.
Genuine question to PB at large. How many seats do you think the Conservatives must get to have a hope of forming a government?
For me, I reckon about 310 or more. Less than that, and I think they are screwed. I don't think they will have any natural allies in the upcoming Parliament, not even the DUP. *IF* the Brexit party win any (doubt it - might get one) then that could help, but otherwise, I think less than 310 and they're screwed and a rainbow coalition will be able to put forward a reasonable shot at a minority/coalition arrangement. It probably won't last past stopping Brexit, but once that is done it's probably game over for Brexit.
Based on the failure to VONC and agree a temporary government in this parliament, the number is probably something like half of 650 minus speakers, Sinn Fein and LDs - so maybe 295? Logic for this is that Swinson appears to prefer Tory government delivering Brexit to even conditional, time limited support for Corbyn, and Labour won’t be seen to change their leader at sole behest of the LDs.
Of course this would make it impossible to govern and leave us exactly where we are now, but my assumption is that Johnson would still want to be PM rather than not in those circumstances.
if the Tories can put forward more Andrea Jenkyns types in the North they will do very well, what they dont need is Tory wets. Morley and Outwood was an impressive win in 15' and an impressive hold in 17'. Plenty of these Northern constituencies are up for grabs.
I will laugh if she loses. It is possible as she benefited from first time incumbency last time. Incumbency could work against her this time as those opposed to her might be more motivated to oust her!
She's also demonstrated her room-temperature IQ, which won't help.
The real problem for the LDs is that Farage is falling back. Much as the Tories and Labour will live and die in tandem, same for the Lib Dems and Brexit, they both needed the other to poll strongly, if you think the tories are about to be destroyed you feel more comfortable voting for LDs and vice versa.
In the ballot box, many people who want to vote LD will vote Labour just as in 2017, because the fear is of a tory landslide with a united leave vote. If BXP does manage to pick up significantly during the campaign then expect the LDs to do so likewise.
We shouldn't overemphasise the differences with 2017 either. Yes Corbyn was newer but he was a known entity with bad polling beforehand. The papers went very hard on him being a jihadi loving bolshevik. There was fear of a Tory landslide leading to a hard brexit so Remainers ended up backing a Labour that that was significantly LESS remainy than they are now.
Notably a third of Republicans say there is literally almost nothing Trump could do that would reduce their support for him (as do over half of Fox news devotees).
I like the 1.3 that he is the Republican nominee. Did that this morning.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
This is true, but there is also a very good chance the Libs do well but Swinson loses her seat, with a new leader they could circumvent any 'no coalition' guff that Swinson spouts on the campaign trail.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say healthy Tory majority (50+). My instinct says Essex man wants Brexit withdrawal done so we can get on with the negotiations. The LDs will weaken Lab in university towns (the students betrayed by Clegg are young professionals now). But I don't think they will recover in the south as well against the Tories as many hope. Tories have incumbency advantage. I think Tories will sneak through the middle in a lot of constituencies where Lab/LD vote is split.
I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.
So, on Brexit, for a Brexit election, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself.
Conclusion –
Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.
I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.
I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent feels like a leap of faith to me.
If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.
I predict a rerun in March.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
What do you see as driving the gains from Labour - straight red -> blue switching, BXP hurting red more than blue, or Labour voters disillusioned by Corbyn going DNV/LD? I’m struggling to see 50 seats worth of any of those unless Boris can genuinely become liked enough for the first option to work.
On the current BBC poll average the Tories gain about 50 Labour seats.
The Tories are holding most of their 2017 share, Labour have lost almost half their 2017 vote, mainly to the LDs
The real problem for the LDs is that Farage is falling back. Much as the Tories and Labour will live and die in tandem, same for the Lib Dems and Brexit, they both needed the other to poll strongly, if you think the tories are about to be destroyed you feel more comfortable voting for LDs and vice versa.
In the ballot box, many people who want to vote LD will vote Labour just as in 2017, because the fear is of a tory landslide with a united leave vote. If BXP does manage to pick up significantly during the campaign then expect the LDs to do so likewise.
We shouldn't overemphasise the differences with 2017 either. Yes Corbyn was newer but he was a known entity with bad polling beforehand. The papers went very hard on him being a jihadi loving bolshevik. There was fear of a Tory landslide leading to a hard brexit so Remainers ended up backing a Labour that that was significantly LESS remainy than they are now.
I wonder if it will help or hinder the Tories now that there is less fear of no deal Brexit and more a middling Brexit deal for remainers to begrudgingly accept as a potential price worth paying for them voting Lib Dem.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Irony alert! Pugnatious and unquestioning Brexit supporter calls someone naïve, gullible and a troll all in the same day! 🤣 🤣 🤣
It’s very possible we get both a second EU referendum and a second independence referendum next year.
Yup. Kill me now.
If you have a 2nd EU ref you're almost certainly get a 3rd one. I think the Tories need to hammer home that a vote for Labour is a vote for years more uncertainty. It's a powerful message when you see the polling on 'Brexit fatigue'.
lol - Tories strong and stable.... Did not work the last time given 3 years of chaos!
The real problem for the LDs is that Farage is falling back. Much as the Tories and Labour will live and die in tandem, same for the Lib Dems and Brexit, they both needed the other to poll strongly, if you think the tories are about to be destroyed you feel more comfortable voting for LDs and vice versa.
In the ballot box, many people who want to vote LD will vote Labour just as in 2017, because the fear is of a tory landslide with a united leave vote. If BXP does manage to pick up significantly during the campaign then expect the LDs to do so likewise.
We shouldn't overemphasise the differences with 2017 either. Yes Corbyn was newer but he was a known entity with bad polling beforehand. The papers went very hard on him being a jihadi loving bolshevik. There was fear of a Tory landslide leading to a hard brexit so Remainers ended up backing a Labour that that was significantly LESS remainy than they are now.
Nobody knows yet what Farage's strategy will be. A BP member this morning on a radio phone-in was v. unhappy with his 'candidate in every port' strategy.
Suggested instead throwing everything at 20 seats where they stood a decent chance, hoping for the balance of power a la DUP.
It looks like Farage is allowing himself to be overruled by pro-Tory voices in his party. He doesn't believe Boris will deliver a "proper" Brexit, but the argument that he is better than another hung parliament is a strong one.
Notably a third of Republicans say there is literally almost nothing Trump could do that would reduce their support for him (as do over half of Fox news devotees).
I like the 1.3 that he is the Republican nominee. Did that this morning.
On balance, that's value. But the three risks are scandal escalating (if Republican Senators start turning against him, he'll struggle to be GOP nominee although he might go Independent), resignation (perhaps out of fear of defeat or to get a pardon from VP), and death (he's in his 70s and obese).
I'll ask again! Maybe someone other than HYUFD can answer. If HYUFD or any other unquestioning Bozo supporter thinks there are 50 Labour seats (most likely northern) that can change to being Tory, can anyone tell me how many have ever returned a Tory?
I agree that that carries some weight when it comes from Hodges. This is going to be a very interesting and volatile election. Watching the send off Ken Clarke got I was also wondering how kicking him and many others out of the Conservative Party is going to play with voters in general.
I think most of us on PB vastly overestimate how much attention the average voter pays until there is a GE.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
I remember someone the other day saying SeanT was tweeting in southern US, then byronic came on here yesterday proclaiming to be in the same location. To be honest i could not care less if it is seant or not. Why does he not post under his original moniker? Did he get banned or was he embarrassed about Brexit? Cannot imagine he is the sort to be embarrased about anything!
Such a thing might be about establishing plausible deniability for old and inconvenient embarrassments ?
Or simply a failed novelistic exercise.
Reminds me of that advertising slogan "embarrassed by your phone?" Maybe the LibDems could have "Embarrassed by Brexit?". It would resonate with SeanT
There is a certain irony that people who pretend to be patriots have simultaneously turned us into an international laughing stock and done the bidding of Putin. Well done, Brexiteers, good work! Embarrassed by Brexit? You should be!
I agree with your sentiments. Politicians always fight the last war and i think BJ misreads where we are as a country and his electoral options.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
What do you see as driving the gains from Labour - straight red -> blue switching, BXP hurting red more than blue, or Labour voters disillusioned by Corbyn going DNV/LD? I’m struggling to see 50 seats worth of any of those unless Boris can genuinely become liked enough for the first option to work.
Interestingly the Conservative vote share in 2017 was 41.1% only slightly different to the GB-wide share of 43.4% they received. Estimated at 54.4% Leave it's only slightly more Leave than the average seat. Was lost to Labour at the 1992GE.
If we assume the Tories poll 38% GB-wide, and therefore 36% in Delyn, is it outlandish to think that Labour might lose 17% to a Remain Alliance and the Brexit Party to come second on 35%?
Something like: Conservative 36% Labour 35% Remain Alliance 15% Brexit Party 14%
It certainly could happen (nationally half of pollsters have Labour losing at least that vote share and a couple have a Tory share that large), but a lot will depend on the campaigning on the ground. There's a lot of votes up for grabs.
Ha ha ha! say Tory MPs. Ha ha ha! You're wearing a Green Tie! Ha ha ha! say Tory MPs. Na, na, na, na, na. Your green tie is sooooo silly! Jeremy Corbyn is wearing the Green Tie to honour the memory of those who burned alive in Grenfell Tower.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say healthy Tory majority (50+). My instinct says Essex man wants Brexit withdrawal done so we can get on with the negotiations. The LDs will weaken Lab in university towns (the students betrayed by Clegg are young professionals now). But I don't think they will recover in the south as well against the Tories as many hope. Tories have incumbency advantage. I think Tories will sneak through the middle in a lot of constituencies where Lab/LD vote is split.
There are 40 seats (across the country) that Tories will take from Lab if no more than 2,000 voters switch. On the face of it that seems very doable, but obviously a lot will depend on BXP and the Lib Dems.
Perhaps of these 40 they will find the likes of Ipswich, Portsmouth South and Bedford easier gains than Ashfield, Darlington or High Peak as in the former the Lib Dem vote will exceed the BXP vote and drag down the Lab vote more than the Tory one.
If the BXP didnt contest the latter set of seats or were squeezed heavily it would potentially be a bloodbath for Labour.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say healthy Tory majority (50+). My instinct says Essex man wants Brexit withdrawal done so we can get on with the negotiations. The LDs will weaken Lab in university towns (the students betrayed by Clegg are young professionals now). But I don't think they will recover in the south as well against the Tories as many hope. Tories have incumbency advantage. I think Tories will sneak through the middle in a lot of constituencies where Lab/LD vote is split.
You are Dominic Cummings and I claim my £5
What do you reckon Nige? 300 Lib Dem gains and Gary Lineker PM?
Comments
My grandson started school a year ago. He is coming on leaps and bounds and will be fluent in 2 languages before long. This will stand him in good stead for his future.
No, the election is a gamble for sure, but once Letwin torpedoed the Programme Motion, the Deal could not be passed in a form the Tory Party could accept.
The last Tory leader was a xenophobic, authoritarian nightmare who in her time as Home Secretary had made numerous terrible decisions which had caused real pain and hardship for many innocent people. We have had an ever increasingly complex tax system presided over by successive Chancellors who have done nothing to simplify it and have seen almost all of our important services - police, nurses, doctors and the fire service alienated by bad decisions and yet more red tape.
The Conservatives have not allowed people to "get on with their lives" for decades. They are little different from the Blairite Labour party or the Lib Dems which is why we need this revolution.
Though I actually doubt it will come unfortunately
I'd be over the moon with that. And having bought Con seats so would my wallet because it would have a great weight removed from it.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/search?startDate=1979-01-01&endDate=2019-10-30&searchTerm=spokenby:corbyn words:"our police"&partial=False
He has said "the police" two hundred and thirty seven times
https://hansard.parliament.uk/search?startDate=1979-01-01&endDate=2019-10-30&searchTerm=spokenby:corbyn words:"the police"&partial=False
I`m guessing a quick repeat of the GE? Who governs in the meantime?
100 years from now we’ll look on this as the same sort of Tory split as repealing the corn laws or opposing tariff reform. The side that wins out tends to then redefine conservatism and that would seem to be the brexiteers. I just hope the more liberally minded of that ilk end up in charge - Boris is a good start there.
Does this game have rules or is it like Mornington Crescent?
Oh and apparently they opened applications for her seat 5 days ago so she's clearly talking a load of Rudd.
Any PB Tories think PMQs was a triumph for Jester
The Tories are holding most of their 2017 share, Labour have lost almost half their 2017 vote, mainly to the LDs
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1189534794171998208?s=21
You were too bullish on the Tories in Canada and you are being too pessimistic on the Tories in the UK
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
https://www.prri.org/research/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-polarization-and-key-issues-in-2020-presidential-elections/
Notably a third of Republicans say there is literally almost nothing Trump could do that would reduce their support for him (as do over half of Fox news devotees).
For me, I reckon about 310 or more. Less than that, and I think they are screwed. I don't think they will have any natural allies in the upcoming Parliament, not even the DUP.
*IF* the Brexit party win any (doubt it - might get one) then that could help, but otherwise, I think less than 310 and they're screwed and a rainbow coalition will be able to put forward a reasonable shot at a minority/coalition arrangement. It probably won't last past stopping Brexit, but once that is done it's probably game over for Brexit.
Or simply a failed novelistic exercise.
My take on the various parties' positions:
Con: Although not totally united, they are united enough. Their Brexit position of leaving with the negotiated deal is coherent and one which both Leavers and moderate Remainers can agree on, at least for the purposes of this election. (There will be big problems next June with the requirement to extend the transition, but that can be swept under the carpet for now). Boris is clearly a bounder and a charlatan, but the party and most of its target voters seem content for the moment to think 'at least he's our bounder and charlatan'. The timing is good for the party, Boris still gets the benefit of the doubt. The party leadership also seems to be fighting a much more focused and ruthless campaign than Theresa May ever could. So, overall, I think they are in quite good shape. The main concerns are that a party which doesn't have room for Phil Hammond, David Gauke and Amber Rudd is not one which traditional one-nation Conservatives will be happy with, and the spectre of the party support of a No Deal crash-out hasn't completely gone away.
Lab: Oh dear. Fighting like ferrets in a sack, anti-Semitism, Corbyn, an utter shambles on Brexit, A dire position by any standards, but the brand is strong and Boris is polarising, which will help them. They'll be looking to change the subject and focus on spaying money we don't have around, and Momentum will be trying hard. However, I don't think the youngsters will be caught up in Corbyn hype this time round, the LibDems will pick up a lot of the youth/Remain vote, and Boris won't make the mistake Theresa May made of allowing the Labour manifesto to be unchallenged.
LD; Good strategic position as the sane alternative to the extremes of the two big parties and with a clear position on Brexit ("no thanks"), but it's a difficult starting position and they'll be stretched (although they are raising lots of dosh). Jo Swinson is lightweight but will do.
SNP: Will clean up, a perfect position for them.
Greens: Should do OK but remain marginal.
BXP: Squeezed out for now, but will recover when Boris starts on the FTA negotiations, which will require sticking to EU regulations.
I'd guess I'm about halfway through. It's good stuff.
It’s very possible we get both a second EU referendum and a second independence referendum next year.
Yup. Kill me now.
And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
There is a certain irony that people who pretend to be patriots have simultaneously turned us into an international laughing stock and done the bidding of Putin. Well done, Brexiteers, good work! Embarrassed by Brexit? You should be!
It would be unwise to be over confident in any outcome
I note you don’t include the Brexit Party.
And then there's Brixham, the biggest port for landing fish in England and Wales - and only marginally smaller than Totnes town itself. No fans of Wollaston they.
Of course this would make it impossible to govern and leave us exactly where we are now, but my assumption is that Johnson would still want to be PM rather than not in those circumstances.
In the ballot box, many people who want to vote LD will vote Labour just as in 2017, because the fear is of a tory landslide with a united leave vote. If BXP does manage to pick up significantly during the campaign then expect the LDs to do so likewise.
We shouldn't overemphasise the differences with 2017 either. Yes Corbyn was newer but he was a known entity with bad polling beforehand. The papers went very hard on him being a jihadi loving bolshevik. There was fear of a Tory landslide leading to a hard brexit so Remainers ended up backing a Labour that that was significantly LESS remainy than they are now.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
JICIPM
Applies to Johnson or Jezza
Dont think i will need TSICIPM!!
Suggested instead throwing everything at 20 seats where they stood a decent chance, hoping for the balance of power a la DUP.
I think most of us on PB vastly overestimate how much attention the average voter pays until there is a GE.
Interestingly the Conservative vote share in 2017 was 41.1% only slightly different to the GB-wide share of 43.4% they received. Estimated at 54.4% Leave it's only slightly more Leave than the average seat. Was lost to Labour at the 1992GE.
If we assume the Tories poll 38% GB-wide, and therefore 36% in Delyn, is it outlandish to think that Labour might lose 17% to a Remain Alliance and the Brexit Party to come second on 35%?
Something like:
Conservative 36%
Labour 35%
Remain Alliance 15%
Brexit Party 14%
It certainly could happen (nationally half of pollsters have Labour losing at least that vote share and a couple have a Tory share that large), but a lot will depend on the campaigning on the ground. There's a lot of votes up for grabs.
All this time I've been stockpiling food, and I should have been stockpiling rubbish bags.
https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Perhaps of these 40 they will find the likes of Ipswich, Portsmouth South and Bedford easier gains than Ashfield, Darlington or High Peak as in the former the Lib Dem vote will exceed the BXP vote and drag down the Lab vote more than the Tory one.
If the BXP didnt contest the latter set of seats or were squeezed heavily it would potentially be a bloodbath for Labour.
#rattled